new york would be 46-16, 30 games over 500, what would you have said? >> no way. >> no way. yet here we are. 30 games over. can you believe it you can't. you can't. i can't believe the black stone is training where it is. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field. there's always a bull market summer and i'm trying to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> hey i'm kramer, welcome to mad money. i'm just trying to save you money. my job is not to teach but to entertain, educate, call me, of

course tweet me at jim cramer. slow down, i'm not talking about my speaking slower, not going to happen. i'm talking about the speed of events which is happening way too fast. the parade of negative news is sending stocks logo with an unbelievable velocity. the s&p plummeted 3.25%, nasdaq nosedived, and i want to tell you this hard to avoid. it just doesn't matter, many of the world central banks are in slowdown mode, it's like no one expected it. even though it was obviously a global problem. i know the fed is just getting serious about inflation, right as we got our first reports that were negative. they are way too late to the game but

where does that get you? i'm not a monday morning quarterback, by the way, unfortunately for stocks the two indicators that matter most to be housing prices which have jumped 20% over year-to-year and the fed did nothing about it and unemployment, which may be 5% or even more, and from the fed's perspective it doesn't hurt that clients have already done more to underwhelmed -- especially because of your dwindling 401(k). the pessimism is incredible. pessimism about stocks as measured by the bull bear ratio. amazing when things get this negative, it's now at -10, it has bounced off consistently for years and it's usually crowd but the pessimist crowd

this time has been right, so far. often people are skeptical that the fed can't win the battle against inflation. i learned years ago you don't fight the pet said, this tape says everything, something that's highly unusual, there should be a bunch of areas that are stabilized and they haven't. the skepticism about the fed's power, jane powell could be less like george bailey and more like harry potter, the bad guy, then there would be more conviction that inflation will be tamed without creating too much havoc. that doesn't look like it's going to happen. enough with the jimmy stewart stuff. many conscious stocks are sinking but i want to run them down so you can decide what might be worth picking at and throwing away. first if the fed does slow the economy, it means fewer price increases but will there be price rollbacks? i don't think so.

that's why procter & gamble rallied today. consumers are feeling more strapped, the sharp shop more places like walmart. i happen to like johnson & johnson and walmart and proctor are both up because people feel they get value. i like johnson & johnson, eli lilly, too. neither has much price sensitivity. drugs will mature. we write many bulletins about this. we need to accept that stocks should go lower but we need to ask ourselves if every stock should go lower and we need to know whether it's going lower because of earnings or just being punished because it's part of an asset class that is suddenly out-of-favor or even hated. let's use real life instances. he had strong sales, strong earnings, and lots of business being done in their own private labels. which are much more lucrative than name brands. of course, we will pay less for

stocks but we are more likely to trade down to kroger's cheaper brands. kroger stocks should have been up today, not down. i listened to rodney and i said to myself, you know what, that sounds like a good stock but the rain has to stop, you can't go in and say that sound like a good stock even though it sounded terrific when i listened to him i said i'll put that one away maybe i'll buy it later. i just spent five days on the west coast. i have up-to-date information on a bunch of companies that are doing well even if the stocks are doing awful. you shouldn't be worried about the earnings of and amd, i've got fresh numbers. they include business from china, these stocks are getting kicked to the curb harder than others. seems wrong to me. adobe got it down.

these days it's become convention to accept that. business is terrible, it just doesn't get better. if china were to reopen almost every tech on your screen would soar higher. there would be rocket ships, not cement galoshes. this is a philosophical moment. for the global text, their businesses might fall down a bit but their valuations are dropping like flies. hedge fund managers can't sustain this. you and me, regular investors, getting a chance to buy high quality stocks, at prices that are cheap and may go lower. we

spent a lot of time talking about pain. there are areas that remain dangerous. you've got the coworker that thrived during the worst days of the pandemic. watch the stocks every day. doordash, airbnb, carbonic, wayfarer, roku, paypal, these are plain old black holes right now. i have no idea when they will stop going down. i have rarely seen stocks acting this badly other than the great recession. if these were crummy companies with no hope to turn up profit than these would make sense. i don't see it that way, though. the stocks are kryptonite. as bad as those stocks are, almost every ipo from the 18

months is far worse, 600 of those, do you know i'm willing to say of all the 600 probably 95%, it's not too late to sell? let's fathom this, last time we left and decided the fed had done what was observed to get things started, there was a lot of joy, many buyers. they were all over the place. that close yesterday was strong and healthy. it looks like things were better. shortly after 4:00 a.m. this morning, i watched the stuff like a hawk, are networks were hit, they were either running ahead of lower prices here or scared sellers from overseas that were trying to dump everything. either way, they didn't have much discretion. where were they yesterday, from 3:00 to 4:00 p.m ? the answer is, if they were in europe, they were closed. couldn't take advantage of the

higher prices. soaping them down before most of us woke up. may be the swiss were bolden. the sellers just didn't care. what central bank would care about better prices. in short, things are happening way too fast. traders should be taking every day, investors they don't need to take action on data points, as much as the fed wants to slow the economy, the repricing of equities are creating opportunities. but it still things until things slow down, these things could and would lead to more pain. do not buy so aggressively, don't touch the 600 that has

been introduced to you, and accept the fact that the oscillator -10, it should probably let up but it may not be over. joel in texas, joel? >> thank you for taking my call. what do you think about ford? >> i think ford is very inexpensive and 11. it's got a good yield but the problem with ford as they have warranty issues and they have what i regard as being commodity issues. they are clearing up but the amazing thing about ford is, as cheap as it is, as long as it's not tesla, it won't get the mobile it deserves. i wish the insiders would start buying already. it yields to remap. the repricing of all equities is facing opportunities but until things slow down with the tape, many of these opportunities just aren't yet worth the tape. 75 basis hike yesterday, and

the banks seemed to shrug off the news or even sell down. i'm revealing who is worthy of listening. and ferguson makes tools to heat up your home. it'll be a real life test of how the economy is doing and how your house is doing but can they see the portfolio? i want you to stay with kramer. have a question, tweet kramer, send him an email at madmoney@cnbc.com or call us at 1-800-743-cnbc. (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence,

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okay. ahhh! wa-hoo! ha ha! no! no ha ha!

today, there is one industry that no one's talking about the benefits from aggressive rate hikes, even if it's not given the credit it deserves. talking about the banks. this group has moved up slightly yesterday, trailing the averages then today it rolled over along with everything else. i think the recovery makes sense. i think the selloff is nuts. it's not so hot for borrowers, very little for savers it's rapturous for the banks. every time the fed tightens, it means the fed has taken deposits and they risk free rates.

higher short-term rates means they automatically make more money by turning the lights on then they did a week ago. i think any potential weakness would be much more than offset by the higher interest mortgages. especially given the strength of corporate and consumer balances. tonight i will walk you through something bullish, what it means for three of my faves, to from my travel trust, which you can get regular updates on by joining the cnbc club. let's start with wells fargo. traditional bank with a large base especially the kind of institution that benefits when the fed tightens aggressively. we were hoping for better expense control. since then the stock kept rolling over to the point where

it's trading at a 52-week low down 38% from its february high, wells fargo is down just in the month of june. wow. this makes me want to tear what's left of my hair out, it does make things more difficult but my wife likes it. the banks make money every time the fed raises interest rates, the 75 basis point rate yesterday, that's called manna from heaven. you would know but you would have to live through the 1990s, some of you were in pjs but i was in it, and that was the halcyon moment for banks. greenspan decided -- that's happening now. powell doesn't want that. since then the fed has gotten more hawkish. they said expect a 15%

increase. and that money flows straight from the bottom line. they don't even need to lift a finger. you have to expect their net interest income will be stronger because of the fed funds rate. the ceo and cfo have made very encouraging comments in conferences. i think 15% of the low end. higher rates will have some pain. you expect a slowdown in the mortgage business, expect more to fall, they have the fewest false i've ever seen but so far the company hasn't seen any saint. wells fargo they will have an additional 5 to 6 billion from higher rates and the -- this

was 62 in the second week of february, in 2018. it's been cut and half. next up, morgan stanley. this is more complicated. generally, you would expect them to benefit less, they've got a used deposit base, back in january, 500 million in income from higher rates. they spelled out what additional increases would mean for the bottom line. no one is paying attention but i am, i'm a geek. that almost all flows right to the bottom line. in january they thought it would take several years to get there. by the time they reported in april they said they benefited from higher rates, meanwhile 1 billion this year and remember there, terry, every hundred points translates to 100

billion. we can't just say pretty money but i wouldn't be surprised at all, if morgan stanley got an additional 2 billion in interest . they are in dire straits mode, and a sense that they are getting money for nothing. i just say, also, they have an aggressive buyback. at these levels they would be feasting on their stock and finally, bank of america, less than a dollar, 52 week low, even though it's been putting up strong numbers this year. things are supposed to be sold in recession. i'm saying we should be thinking more like 1999, 1992. they've been very clear about how interest rates translate into higher earnings and boy do they ever translate. bank of america was saying 100

basis point in rates would translate to an additional $6.5 billion, for doing nothing. they gave us more detail, he said if we get 100 basis points with the rate hikes, that would be $6.8 billion. here, here $6.8 billion. the numbers keep fluctuating. they are in the best position to benefit from the fed rate hikes. everyone is afraid to say what i'm saying. they are all scared, they are under the desk. they went home to their mommies, they cried. not me. all the bank stocks have been crushed because everyone is worried about a recession. it's bad news for financials. banks have already taken a serious hit. but that's why the stocks are big. if you think we are headed for

a full blown recession it's right to avoid the stocks. these companies can make fortunes from higher rates and we will be talking, why didn't we buy them, we knew the numbers were too low. at these levels i think they -- they don't reflect the earnings. people are such cowards they won't say that but i'm not, and that's why they are worth five only at vanguard you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means that your priorities are ours too. our interactive tools and advice

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when you start going down a rate height cycle it will be a cacophony of voices explaining where we are headed and you need to be able to make sense of them while taking them with a grain of salt, tonight, i'm

giving you my cynical, to the core, been there, done that handbook. i need to preface this by saying that i'm sick of the billionaire money managers that say outrageous things that they can only get away with because they are insanely rich. let's start with them. no billionaire ever seemed happy. they are all unhappy and when they are on air, and none will ever admit to being confused. off air, they are much less angry but in public they can't resist making dramatic gestures, peppered with, from the heart revelations, it's being ruined by the fed, it's like the confederacy, the confederacy is bad. this camp is full of people who are never content, they create unrealistic assumptions, then they blame jay powell for not living up to them. they act like they could be

doing a much better job than powell if he ever got a chance. i mean, enough already! lord knows i can't blame anyone for being too dramatic but i certainly don't pretend to be all-knowing. they have different priorities from the rest of us. it's not that they are lying when they say everything is going wrong, it's that they have a bias to preserve preserve their own wealth. not ours offensively not yours, there's a reasonable perspective when you've got $1 billion but unless you're one of the richest people in the world, it's meaningless to you. if i were a billionaire, i would never own a stock again. you only need to get rich once. bonds baby, nothing else. it's not helpful for me to take a page from the billionaire playbook and say sorry, but everything's bad, it's the worst time in our country's ever been, dismissing civil

war, world war ii. it's all powell. we will run around with worthless dollars in will barrels, so stick your index funds or go into cash. i don't find that beneficial. i'm trying to help you make money. some of these guys are very smart and they sound very convincing but their analysis only applies if you are super rich. if you are a regular person, you will have a different set of priorities. we are not helpful, and they've got to stop the world is over thing. i mean, they've got to stop that. it doesn't help. i'm not saying it's a great time, i said i want to come out and be realistic, it's not a great time. that's it. it's not a great time. the second camp is almost as bad as the billionaires who think the world is ending. they say the only way for the fed to be inflation is by

causing a horrendous recession. they argue that jay powell is late so of course he has to tighten aggressively. these guys got their way from 2005, 2007, they got their way when the fed hit us with a series of hikes that help to throw us in the worst recession, maximum pain camp, they refuse to accept, the downturn 2007 with the opposite, started with everyone having a bad balance sheet, credit card dependent consumers, the banks, insurance companies, big bets on housing, bonds that were worthless, they all had too much. in the next few weeks we will learn who had too much leverage, maybe it's the buyout companies and each time when we

see one, the market will get hit. you've got to get used to that. as someone who not only yelled fire in 2008, not long before the dow was cut in half, as someone who spoke out against the fed when i knew i had better sources and they were oblivious, i'm more than happy to tell you when things are terrible and a bunch of knuckleheads. they are not terrible, they are just not good. our purchasing power is being eroded by nasty inflation. that inflation comes from a lack of supply of every kind imaginable, it has a better opportunity for another job if they cross the street. does the stock market not make you feel less secure, look at your statement, do you feel great? powell is buying for time until china reopens or we get resolution from the war in

ukraine. there are too many levers for the fed that they aren't considering. they can only imagine inflation over recession. those are the most extreme outcomes. the third camp is the one that is predominant. that's the campuses we are going to have a slowdown with inflation. they drive me crazy because the act like the economy can't accelerate. i'm someone who lived through the stagflation during the bad old days of jimmy carter. it was miserable. nobody could make a dime in the market. don't get me started on the gas lines. i'm not worried about stagflation, yesterday powell said he pulled out ll the stops to break inflation. either you believe powell or you don't. i think most don't which is why i'm thinking the stagflation camp will be the dominant one.

finally there's the camp i'm in, and you know, i've been around let me explain this to you. this is the camp that says, there's been tremendous disruption in the stock market already, have you noticed? the likes of which we've rarely seen. and we are probably still not done with the pain, but after being way too timid the fed has woken up, you have to bet that over time the fed does win, even if you think they did a bad job. while it will be difficult, initially, many industries are hurt by higher rates, homebuilders, they will roll over some oregon. we know the banks will benefit. the drugs should do well along with the tech companies that make money. i will also contend that they can keep burning the oil but

they do generate huge amounts of capital this camp just needs powell to stop being like bailey and more like harry potter, if powell doesn't stay tough and stay on message, i'll be wrong, and the stagflation cohort will looksmarter. to review, the first cap is made up of incredibly rich people whose perspective only applies to billionaires not people who are still trying to get rich themselves, and they think this is the worst time the united states has ever had, not the civil war, not world war i, not world war ii, not the war of 1812, i don't know. the second camp says we must have a severe recession. they seem to cheer it, maybe. the third says, we will be mired in stagflation and the fourth, my camps and things aren't that hot. i wouldn't cash out. stay the course, muddle through.

not a bad time. more bad than good. once that happens, once my camps prevails we want to have stock exposure. when the market turns it tends to turn on a dime. and you will be kicking yourself. these first camps, they are about, they are about making you feel horrible and have you get out every single one, they want you out of stocks, this group said all right, you can take fame but you will make money. kathy in ohio. >> question for you on clorox. i just want to know if it's a stock that is going to be a good company to own over the

next 3 to 5 years, and if we are looking at the stock to possibly get back to pandemic prices -- >> it can't get to pandemic prices, remember, clorox had the wipes, i feel like what happened is the business is okay, not great. they need to have all of their costs come down and keep taking price so that makes it not as good as my buddy powell. i understand when you say your child just buys bad and good, well, that's true, when you play cards, sometimes you lose. how about bill in georgia, bill? >> how are you doing, jim? >> i'm having a jim dandy day. >> i want to go with the thought of, i need your help.

>> hey, i'm here. >> okay, cosco, cold, by, you know, a small investor, i'm just trying to figure out what is going to happen. >> the cfo has these great scores, it's clear to me that if you wanted to own a retailer you either own cosco, or you say, i don't want to own a retailer. cosco is not a retailer, it's a club and they make money in good times and bad. will the stock go down? i'll guarantee it. will it end up down? i might want to guarantee that, too. that's the problem. if you think you can sell cosco and get back in, knock yourself out. james, i'm not there, this is a camp that tries to help, last

camp, that's what you want. this is, don't cash out, stay the course, it's not going to be a great time but when we get there, you'll be able to make money because you are back in or you are in and never left. you cannot believe the world is over, you can't accept that the fed is powerless and you certainly cannot say to yourself you know what? the world is coming to an end because of a recession. it's not like that. much more mad money had including my exclusive with ferguson, so much blame game when it comes to jay powell. i will tell you what powell should do to silence the critics should do to silence the critics . stay with kramerno idea it way to diversify my portfolio! ♪♪

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>> thank heavens we have a guest that can help us. how doe square the expectations that we are headed for a painful downtime with the results that we keep getting from companies? ferguson, that's the distributor of all sorts of plumbing and heating products. when ferguson, better-than expected on every line with 22% sales growth and 40% growth, they raise their income forecast, so is the economy and better shape than wall street seems to believe? maybe there was whistlers, let's look at the ceo of

ferguson, mr. murphy, welcome to mad money. >> thank you, great to be with you. >> i read through everything, everything, and i would summit up that even though you just for what it june 14th which when i looked was two days ago, you were saying things are strong, that demand is good, residential remains are a bust and things are basically on track maybe even better than on track. how can i square that with the endless selling of everything that has anything to do with what ferguson touches? >> jim, we are certainly mindful, your eyes wide open about what rates, price, consumer sentiment can do to the macro and what it can do to residential new construction market more specifically. as we said here today, we've got to really balance this at

ferguson, over half of our business is residential, a little under half is nonresidential, about 60% replace and remodel, 40% new construction. even the new construction, that's all other areas of opportunity, really are growing with good backlogs, good volumes being shipped, and candidly, all underground wastewater, stormwater business, which is the first on site when the shovels turn in the pike is getting put in the ground, we still got order volume, shipment activity and good bidding opportunity that's working on future work so right now, we are in pretty good shape and we see good demand pay >> you are buying back stock, you are considering buying back stock even at these levels despite of what we know about the stock market questioning >> the balance will serve as well for a good financial condition. we are investing in inventory, investing in tools that are going to take care of our

customers. a consultative approach that'll drive that organic growth, then the cash generative model still allows us to return capital to shareholders when we are underneath our -- >> well, all right, let me play devils advocate here. the market is down. gloom and doom. we've got a bad housing start number, do you call your salespeople and say, the economy is slowing, let's cut costs, we've got to make sure we are going to do the numbers and does any of that ring true? >> we've got a resilient model, we are making sure that we manage the cost space of the business, understand what are volume is and what's happening with open order activity and as that volumetric grows, that's how we invest in that side of the business. right now, we've got good

demand activity. we got arly views as to what happens from the underground business and then we see that flow through into residential trade, commercial plumbing and the balance right now, again, new construction, residential, nonresidential, it gives us good strength as we go towards the future. there's some really healthy activity on the nonresidential, education, healthcare, lab and format and on shoring and manufacturing. >> what is to healthy, and when you listen to powell, he gets criticism, he looked the other way when we had inflation, what is to healthy? as a consumer, is going up in price so much that i should be freaking out in your repertoire? >> we were worried about what price might do from a demand destruction. we saw the inflation early on, we saw commodity inflation, cast iron, we saw it as early as the fall of 2020. we knew it was there.

we kept a keen eye on whether or not that inflation was going to destroy demand. the good part about our business is, there's strong activity, not just to remodel the home but also, when you think about we are under built by three and half million units in the u.s. there still good demand. residential and nonresidential he. haven't seen price really start to pull back. >> when i listen, i keep thinking this is a healthy environment but obviously, we've seen a 20% increase in home prices in the last two years. that is not sustainable, would you agree? >> we would agree. we've seen a run-up in price, we know we are unlocking the

millennial generation. we know we need houses for new family formation, immigration, disaster he, we need to see that moderate. that's going to happen. we know we need to suck halt this. right now it hasn't played into our business. >> all the homebuilders were down big because of the housing number. people thought windows are down, 40 to 50% going in, they wouldn't be hit again but obviously they will. i think we have a sober attitude, the right attitude but i can only tell you that the pessimism is so thick here, that a very good business like ferguson stock may not translate into how strong your business is but i think we have to accept that right now. it's the way of the world. >> if you take aside the share price, our associates are driving, they are delivering a approach, they have a project mindset on how to get it done. they are delivering value to our customers and making sure

that we are relevant. watching that side of the business, keeps a good balance. so we are in a strong position with a balanced business, we are looking forward to the future. >> thank you kevin murphy, first time, great to meet you, sir, thank you. >> likewise. >> as he said, business is good, that doesn't mean the stock is good that's where we are. it's sobering. a big disconnect, that's okay. we have to accept it and keep thinking more positively, things are not great your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

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it's time to start the lightning round. are you ready? bobby? >> jim, i love your show. >> that is so spirited, what's up? >> talk about quarter of our savings, purchase southwest, got it at $22.13. boom! stock market drops. the question we have -- >> here's the question, you and i share enthusiasm for life but we don't know what they really

own, and that's why, i wish i could help you but i don't recommend the stock. we can't really tell what there is. i'm sorry but i sure do like your attitude. let's go to david in tennessee, david? >> hey jim, i was thinking how truly blessed we are to live in america, the land of opportunity. i know if they work hard they can be anything they want to be. >> i agree with that. what's your stock? >> toronto. i feel good. >> i feel good. >> i've been -- bank of america recommended it. it's one of the newer companies that doesn't have any earnings, jacob from connecticut. >> hey jim, i love watching the show. >> thank you, buddy. >> specialized vehicles. we are helping to transition the pulse of the, the company

is oshkosh. >> it's very good, it is a buy into this weakness, and that, ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. >>

so much blame game, so little analysis. talking about the endless sucking guessing of powell's every move. hey you want to play that game, i can do it. i was calling for 100 points, he only did 75, i'm disappointed, that's why we are down. where does that get you? do i look smarter than he does? tom said he was wrong, big deal. for a moment i want to tell you what would have silenced the critics. let me explain what i would have said if i were the fed chief. i would start off by saying, ladies and gentlemen of the press corps, i screwed up. i was too easy because i was worried about mass unemploymen , when the real problem is too many jobs and not enough jobseekers. that was a big mistake. i got it wrong.

i have to correct it by any means necessary which means, i'm going to raise rates by .75%, each month, until i see substantial unemployment, which will allow flak, the end of job hopping to get raises and a slow demand of all kinds including the use of oil, then i would go on to say, my hope is that by the time i get there, the chinese government will stop trying to control covid by locking down the country. and will have started using more effective vaccines. i did not believe they would behave this irrationally, i was wrong. second, i do not believe the russians would launch a campaign of aggression against ukraine, there will still be tanks in russia with well and gas but at least food inflation supplement, that means gasoline unless the president sits down with their own producers. the president should rake bread with them. that seems unlikely, bad for the base, third, i was not the one who did a gigantic

program and there weren't enough people to fill the jobs associated with it, making labor tighter, that wasn't me. fourth, we need to immediately suspend the 14 hour a day driving limit on truck drivers until we trained enough new drivers and we should take over the west coast ports and use the national guard to unload products if these delays keep up. finally, and you are not going to like this mr. and mrs. press, i'm willing to see unemployment rise to 5%, or even 6%, in order to slow demand and do the job of containing inflation until either russia or china or both, comes to their senses. and with that, i will take no questions. because, it's a huge waste of my time. there, that's what powell should have said, although may be less political because the fed chief is supposed to be

above the fray. he can say whatever he wants. it sounds radical even punitive, obviously doesn't need to be so undiplomatic and outspoken but he has to make these points and make them over and over again. and by the way, no more press conferences, all they do is throw him off message. he and weaves too much. it's something we can no longer afford at this point