quarter-percent yield and done smart corporate repositioning. >> wore going to see how this day unfolds. it's been a tough week for all of you we're down 10/11 weeks the s&p is off by -- pardon me positive by five nasdaq hanging on to a gain as well "the exchange" is now. ♪ thank you, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans and welcome to "the exchange. the early attempt at rebound has started to fade and now we're starting to come back. bottom line is the dow is bottom for the 11th week in the past 12 worries about the economies are growing after the fed got hawkish wednesday. we'll hear from someone who says the bigger rate hike was a mistake. and you'd think ease makers

would be soaring as well and it's the best performer. we'll dig into the problem this was also supposed to be the summer of travel but those stocks have been trading terribly so, we have three buys andaz bail in the travel sector. but first let's get the latest numbers from dom chu >> yes again on paces to be the worst week since the pandemic lows it's fairly calm and even especially when it comes to the dow. it's relatively flat that symmetry note we were up 240 points for the dow. it's not great but still pretty decent we were down 274 points at the lows the symmetry playing out as they try handicap how this week shakes up for this particular friday the s&p 3673, up two 10ths of

1% and 10,800 or thereabouts on that trade regard to the trade as the last week has taken shape over that time span, we've seen a decent size sell off in certain parts of the market. specifically when it comes to energy stocks down 17% for that ticker in the last week. -meanwhile, less economically sensitive ones down roughly 4 to 5% those are your out performers and the energy taking it on the chin there are roughly a dozen or so companies positive on the week and they were driven by analyst calls.

boeing shares up as well. so, not all negative >> thank you we're not even halfway through the year and there's been 124 rate hikes around the world. with all the tightening, will it send us am to a global recession? our 10-year yield has fallen from 3.5% to nearly 2.2% rick >> you've summed it up so well but i'm going to sum it up as well central banks, they didn't see inflation coming our fed and our chairman, mr. powell, he's not sure how this is go tag play out. what they're going to do in futures and forecasting isn't something to write home about.

really, we need follow the market because the fed follows the market and you follow the money. so, let's do that. we were just talking about how much lower we are. we're up on the week, all the way down to 30 but look at the tuesday extremes from two-year note yields. almost 345 10-year note yields at 350 why would investors do that? it's pretty obvious. they're putting their faith in the notion we're not only going to see the brakes hit but break brakes are going to hit on a number of countries. the lower they go, the more fed is implied with respect to tightening today the fed did tighten. it made an all-time contract low at 9636.5. which is below where we're trading.

which means investors think they're going to be successful the it problem is success seems to snell "r" word. >> thank you and my next guest is not a fan of the rate hike he has been warning the economy is not as resilient as people think and we could be in a for a long stretch of barely growth. steve, it's good to see you. what is the market's message >> the thing you have to take away is whenever you let the it market police themselves, you have crisis. should go to bring down the rate of inflation they're going to have a disappointing growth

environment. the idea we could get to a soft landing is completely impossible our numbers are about 0.4% fourth quarter over fourth quarter. 1.3% below the fed we're forward rates have to go to validate the dots they've put in and they will do this growth will probably average between win.5% over the five quarters from the first quarter of this year to next year. but it's not about taming inflation. >> the fed is taking the guidance of if they can't control food and energy prices, they're going to collapse the price of all other products.

that could lead to a disappointing macro environment. the squeeze of higher am aerj prices, higher food prices against incomes not keeping the pace with inflation. now you're if wing to jeopardize their jobs it's double jeopardy for midtool lower income house levels and that's the cure for bringing amflation down in their target questionable whether that's the right way to go. >> why do we have is 11 million job openings some why are rents accelerating >> i don't believe-jobs openings mb we don't have much history oo merchandise what job openings elus mow we have more. we don't know whether hose numbers are real, what they're trying to tell us. we have limited data now with regard tohome prices. covid created a huge adjustment in people's living patterns.

we created an omturnative and there are going to be effects that are created is it sustained inflation like in the 1970s or is it all important part and parcel of a one-time permanent adjustment that's followed by a low inflationina inflationary environment i think it's the prices of the goods. >> sustained inflation could come from the lainer market and shelter. so, do it you see any signs that we're not going to have something that pushes wages still around a 5% level year in rents as i saw in the note the other taw. rates can be7% come january. they're the bulk of core inflation and they beth seem to be pointing higher

>>ia have to keep in mind there's other factors besides rent and considerations like that, that drive the overall inflation environment. we've had environment where rents go up before if incomes are not keeping up with proiss, you cannot get permanent upward movement in rents. in atiddition, with the slowdown of the economy, the lower market is if wing to ease up. as that eases up, the price that is paid for labor is going to come down. which then works its way right back into the rents that can be paid will it all happen in the time frame the fed wants? probably not

we're going to have a big over shoot for 1 to 1.5 years and didn't create the kind of success, so be it. it made more sense than to leave households with less real disposable income after covid than prier to covid. and that's what their policies are if wing to do. >> we'll leave it there for now. thanks now, let's pause for a moment and review the market moves we've seen, starting with a 876 point drop on monday as they brace for a bigger rate hike that extended then a rally after the actual 75-basis point hike. yesterday back to the down side. dow down 740 and now we're on pace for an unprecedented 11th down week in 12. my next guest says the sell off

has largely run its course what are his stock picks david, could you explain and welcome, whether you agree about the subpar growth outlook or regardless, it's priced in? >> a lot of everything is priced in and we're hopeful the economy can weather it we spoke with a lot of banks this week and what they're seeing is strong performers, strong corporations. we think it's tight rope regar regardilous, you've had a 10% markdown pretty much across the board. and that's groelwth, value, all sectors. a lot of great businesses that are selling at 10 to 12 to 14 times earnings historically, when you've been able to find that, you do very well when you have the six to

12-month timeline. wethink the key to success is not focus on the day to day. you see the market is schizophrenic. try to take advantage of the down drafts. >> when some are declaring defeat and the recession is baked in and it's the fed's fault, you're almost saying you're declaring victory valuations have reset and now dhis can pave the way for the beginning of -- i don't want to call it a comeback but that tells you how bearish things have gotten. >> we've got beaten up every day for the last month you're right in terms of we think the market has priced in a lot of the negatives and things are not as bad as they seem right now. you're seeing a lot of can companies saying they're slowing hiring, freezing hiring. laying off some people

when you take the 30-year mortgage from 3% to sings%, it's going to slow down the people paying cash, using their winnings from technology, they're going away we think a lot of things are in play to slow down inflation. we think if that happens, the fed is going to be less aggressive but there are lots of really good businesses right now. so, you're get going prices. and you're biing the business for the longer term, don't get caught up in the day-to-day swing because it's creating those opportunities. >> some of them people would be nervous about a name like starbucks because of the consumer exposure or revamp. tell me what's the common theme here >> these are all really good businesses and good industries, market leaders they're down 20 to 40% you're getting a very attractive price. that's down from 110 to 72

scholz just bought $15 million of stock at the current levels what he said is the demand has out paced the infrastructure so, he's got it to build better in terms of their stores very good long-term prospects and you're getting it at a great discount people are moving from the stay-at-home economy back to back to life going to it sorting venues, travel, restaurant you're getting it at a great discount and that stock has been hammered in the last few weeks. over 15 times earnings and we think that's a very attractive price >> you were not a big fan energy because it had been so crowded is that sfloigt i'm wondering if it peeks your interest >> we still think most energy stocks are pretty fully priced you've seen the chevrons and exxons sell off substantially. a year or two from now, there's a good likelihood they'll be lower.

toyota were mentioning they suspect 70% of their fleet be hybrid by 2030 most other automobile companies have said the same thing we think you're going to see a secular slowdown and demand. the one we do like, which got knocked off $10 in the last week and a halfal you have to have a pick up in drilling and whether it's the united states or internationally, it's going to be more drilling activity and you're getting it at various prices >> always great to hear from you. david cass with matrix still ahead with those gasoline prices, for now at record highs, shouldn't ev sales be sky rocketing? we'll lack at their selling prices and the problems for some of the biggest names in the spacex int plus a special travel edition of three buys into bails. featuring this component

our trader weighs in and as ewe head to break, let's get another look at the markets. they're now back in the green. the it dow up 140 points or half a percent. the nasdaq up 2% russell 2,000 is up 1.5% the 10-year-year-old you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here!

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welcome back been talking a lot about the energy space got a news alert in the oil market where baker hughes is reporting they added oil in the gas rigs for a second straight week gas rigs at 2019 highs energy companies are producing 12 million barrels a day that's a 2020 high let's say, it's adding or not alleviating the downward pressure on wti. down to 110 there a barrel potentially very significant development for everything from the rate complex to the inflation outlook. let's stick with the stubborn gasoline prices. automakers have been taking demand here's phil tracking all the latest action in the space

we keep seeing prices get more expensive. not just tesla, is it? >> it's the entire industry and that's because of what we're sooing when it come cans to the components that go to may going ev batteries those keep going up. we talk about lithium, nickel. all those prices have gone up substantially and as a result, ev r ev prices have gone up we had j.d. power crunch the data month by month and we found we're at record high or cloe to it for ev prices the average of what's paid by you or i so, you're paying up if you want that electric vehicle. >> you certainly are

and here there are a bunch of problems and you see valuations surge off that >> they want to see production and know when it's going to happen that's not going to come for a while. tesla is the only ev auto maker that's profitable right now. it's been wiped out by rising costs. so whb you look at automakers and whether you're talking about tesla or legacy automakers or the start up, the lucids what wall street wants to see is where is production and when is it going to ramp up? and it's going to take time. that's why, generally speaking, tesla remains the only game in

town yes, honda, ford are picking up market share have you ever heardb somebody say i'm in the market for an ev and i'm going to taes bunch of automakers or do they say i'm going to buy an ev i'm going to see what tesla has. they have the model three and the model y and the others much smaller selection. >> especially the start ups. what about the legacy players. we're talking about an environment where they most want to see scale production. can gm, ford, is that where they can compete? >> they can eventually because they'll have the scale world wide and the ability to drive down the cost can of components, battery packs, etc but rifit's not going to happen anytime soon they're pumping each of them 30 to $35 billion am to the ev plan and adding battery plans, new plans for final production y with don't see that ramping

until maybe end of next year through 2026 and yes, ford is ramping production of the f 150 lightening and they'll have sizeable numbers next year when you see the big three come, that's out a couple of years it is tesla. and we have the fremont plan and general motors is saying the price of the electric motor is coming out >> not because of parts, technology and logistics reservations before saturday are exempt and you already have to wait until 2024 who knows what personal financial condition a lot of the buyers will be s >> you're talking about a

vehicle, the initial ones are selling for well over 100,000. it's a limited number of people and up 50% so, where do we go from here the dot combubble. and that's the short covering. giving stocks cover according to one technician

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welcome back to "the exchange." dom usually has one. we're up a quarter percent the s&p is up half a percent and nasdaq up 2% in terms off sectors, energy, materials and utilities are the worst performers energy is the biggest headline down 17 since monday as crude looks to snap a seven-week winning speak for. at the same time the solar stocks are out performing.

and tan having the best day in about two weeks. you can see the other maims in the complex and under water for the week and after the cfo said price increases are due to inflation container material and the fifth straight month of week and it's a great time to be a beer company shares are down. you could say only 14% since january. emerging markets holding up better the e tf doung since monday. and with that, we send it to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update >> it's always good to be a bear company.

thank you as president biden left the white house he was asked about two american veterans who reported missing after they went to ukraine to fight against russian invaiders. >> have you been briefed >> i have been briefed we don't know where they are but i want to reiterate, american cans should not be going to ukraine now say it again am amare -- americans should not be going to crew yan. >> and a man is in police custody after using a handgun in an alabama church last night police say a person at that event subdued the shooter until police arrived potentially saving lives and former trump advisor peter navarro has pled not guilty to contempt of congress charges he refuses to cooperate with the house's january 6th committee. he told the photographer, it's quote, a lovely day in the swamp. and the 50th anniversary of the

watergate burglary that eventually brought down president richard nixon. we'll bring you back to the scene of the crime with two police officers. that's tonight with shep smith at 7:00. >> thanks. rngts still ahead, it's three buys and a bail, travel edition. we showed you the mystery chart of one of the bois here's the bail down 17% this week why you should stay away from it next and during june cnbc is celebrating pride month, featuring some of our teammates and contributors >> i just think june, for the lgbtq community, it's a time to reflect on the journey we've been on, take stock of where we eare right now and think about the future i'm proud of the people out there llteing their stories in all walks of life to help people understand that we're part of

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welcome back the travel stocks have seen wild swings over the past twenty-two years.

they're trading at levels we saw when the pandemic first hit. let's ask gina sanchez with the three buys and a bail. the cnbc contributor gina, welcome. the first one is marriott. down 26% from the highs. why are you a buyer? >> so, marriott right now is a stock that they've been telegraphing that they have strong occupancy and that's continuing to improve. one of the things i said is if you want to take your family on a vacation, the only thing that qualifies it as a vacation is the hotel. you can skip the plane, everything else. as long as you get to a hotel, everyone is going to be happy. i think that's the theme is people are trying to save money.

marriott has a fantastic offering, obviously. but they're better value than some of the other hotels they're trading at 13 times. rigs it's actually pretty attractive right now >> concerns whether we call if an actual session, a technical session. the lots of real consumer income growth >> that is an issue obviously. and it benefits from business spending where you have less it's not quite as elastic. but even there, you're hearing company as that are reducing their travel budgets as well but marriott is a beneficiary and again, they have good balance sheet. and they're getting both

business travel as well as individual travel and their balance sheet is good. >> let's turn then, sticking with the hotel space but to choices hotels down 25% this your and they recently announced an acquisition of the hotel brand is that deal part of the attractivenesses >> absolutely. and they have an extremely strong balance sheet they're probably one of the best in the industry. they're in a position to take advantage of the volatility and expanding their line because -- this is choice is clair claireon, it's lower on the food chain. it's more of a family hotel. it also has some of the biggest margins in the business. 40% margins. that's not bad and so, all of the things line up to deal with rising inflation pressures.

etc. and they have a really strong balance sheet. >> finally a name that is financial but doubles in the travel name, amex done only 14%. but we have resession and consumer concerns lingering. >> the other side of the credit cards is the rise in interest rates is actually benefitsing them we like all of the credit cards. we own visa and master card. but american express has just gotten a bump up by a few of the analysts and if you look at the outlook, it's a little better priced. it's got all -- i checked all of the boxes. it's got great margins, a good balance sheet. so, we're sort of banking on the facts that, what they lose in

consumption, they're going to gain on the play and vice versa when we get to the other side, they'll be well positioned to keep participating on the consumption side what you lose in one, you're gaining the other. you need protection in your portfolio. >> under 15 as well. let's move on at the bail. and it's carnival, which has already been under tremendous pressure it's back to the april 2020 numbers. and it foles like the top or bottom depending on the market and you probably heard this theme. we're really looking at the balance sheet of the companies, to say if we go geinto more

difficult times, all of the cruise lines fell into a really bad space because of the no sail order and they're also incredibly expensivive to operate. even docking the ship is incredibly expensive the maintenance doesn't stop you're dealing with fuel costs so, they're really getting hit on all sides finding labor. inflationary pressures and wages. fuel costs none of that bodes well. right now their margins are negative because they're not may going any money. and they're carrying a massive debt load they need to figure out what to do with. in a recession, that's what you want to avoid. >> debt needs to be refinanced add higher rates that won't help as well. are you bearish on all of the cruise names and none of your buys were airlines or the kind of travel, travel part of this market >> the reason is we are

concerned about the fact that oil prices are staying high longer than even we expected. and the longer those oil prices stay high, it's going to pressure margins on anybody that has to buy fuel. it's why we headed towards the hotel names in the travel space. the cruise lines right now, a lot of them have quite negative balance sheets and it's a hard places for us to get comfortable. that's really been the reason we stayed away. they had a double whamy and carrying tons of dent and getting hit boy inflationary pressures. >> we appreciate it. three buys and a bail on the travel base. the nasdaq up 33% from its highs. and history is not repeating itself exactly we're if wing to look at what is different. check out this week's winners

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welcome back the nasdaq 's 30% plunge may ka conjure memories of early 2000 but not all equal. while history may be rhyming, it's not really repeating. >> today is a 211th of the nasdaq bear market over 30% lower from the peek in november reminding many of what happened in early 2000. and no, it's not destiny's child say my name. until midoctober, 2002, the worst bear market ever, plunging m more than 75%. but does today compare take a look at the graph lk we

put unon your wall the current bear market plunge is still not the worst of the bunch since 2000 i didn't have enough room to put all the bears on that screen and valuations were much higher in 2000. the cap-waited tech index verses 32 this past november. in other words, not nearly as expensive. the nasdaq is hovering round session highs. i wanted to focus on today's movement on reporting that merk is eyeing a potential purpose. this could be the worse since 2012 and the biggest winners today with match group, and kraft, hines, the worst and semiconductors are still struggling and amd's worst since 2018 sirns we talked about all the technology firms big picture. valuations

the question is whether earnings expectations are accurate. and in turn, potentially lowering the pricing power of companies. >> and they're already off their 20 and are not making any money if you look at the gross income of all the nasdaq 100 companies, there's only two names that are not profitable and have fallen hath would be lucid motors as well as constilation energy. there's 455 names on the nasdaq exchange >> we'll leave it there for now. coming up today marks one of the biggest options explorations in years. which could mean volatile adg t csetrininhelo we'll read the tea leaves to gauge the market's next move after this quick break

a big day for the options market with the highest level of quarterly contacts expiring since 2020 and put volumes in the high

yield index have, quote exploded and let's bring in chris murphy. co head of derivative strategy does that mean today's market move should be taken with an asterisk >> no, no. there's been talk about how is expiration going to impact the market today one thing to keep in mind is we've sold off a lot recently. so, a lot of the open option positions are higher than where we are right now the argument would be that if we to continue to trade higher throughout the afternoon, and some of those -- for example, in the money puts end up out of the money by the afternoon, then you might have hedgers and market makers go and buy back stock that could exaser bait some of the moves. >> it sounds like if anything, this could tilt us to the

upside could i call it a short squeeze almost >> they would call it a gama squeeze. that's correct for example with puts that might have been bought a month or two weeks ago, they're in the money by enough that they're probably fully hedged. things to do however, if we do move higher and you don't need as much of a hedge on the in the money puts yes, it is to the upside. >> i'll drop that into the conversation tonight to my kids. let's talk about what's going on in the credit space. people have been focusing on the high-yield spreads jumping up for the first time in a little while. what are the siggive in cannot levels that you're watching from the etf side and what do they tell you >> yeah. we're looking at the ayg and that has become a very popular vehicle for exposure it's highly correlated to the s&p and it's that outsized moves recently compared to, you know, the premium or the implied volatility that you had to pay

for the option so if we looked at it last week, ayg, 30-day applied volatility was 10% and we were talking about how it's a pretty good vehicle for exposure that was a week ago. all of a sudden, now it's at 20%. so those investors, we did get hedges in the ayg last week and volatility is twice as high. now that it's double it's certainly not still cheap. it might even become arguably rich, but you know, it has become very popular, like i said, put volume, call volume and open interest, et cetera, has exploded compared to where we were a year or two ago. >> would you say it's almost a contrarian sign that once it gets to these levels that maybe the move, the big spread widening has run its course? >> certainly, you could make that argument for the volatility level. it doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to go up or down or whatever, but those options were -- are usually pretty inexpensive, but because of

what's been happening recently, they've now become pretty expensive so a lot of volatility is priced into the product and now you have to wonder if it's a little bit overdone. >> quick, final question a lot of people are asking you why the vix isn't higher explain. >> sure. that's the biggest question we're getting. in my opinion, what's the risks? they're pretty well known. it's almost been a slow motion crash kind of argument you have higher inflation and the fed's going to be hawkish, is it going to have inflation? it's not surprising us like covid did. another argument, you keep hearing how the hedge fund committee are taking their positions down, but if they had degrossed their positions and they don't have as much exposure on, they're not going to have to buy as many puts and that will not lead volatility to go higher and we're not seeing the outsized moves higher in

volatility you in a word talked to people over the weekend and you're feeling more bullish or bearish on this market, in general >> give me a long time line and i'll be bullish always >> okay. near-term, i'm not -- unfortunately, i'm not seeing it, but long term i'm very bullish. >> all right i appreciate you taking the question chris, thanks for joining us chris murphy with susquehanna. up next, bitcoin falling 30% this week. we're below 21,000 and kate rooney is in miami with what it means for the city that positioned itself as the capital of crypto. kate >> kelly, that's right this city has billed itself as the crypto capital there's been a lot of hype around the industry and tech moving into miami and now that prices are crashing, are they going to be as bullish and is the enthusiasm fading? we'll have a lot more on that live here from miami afterhe t break. "the exchange" will be right back is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience.

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welcome back it's been a rough week for stocks, but far rougher for crypto bitcoin falling nearly 30% and our kate rooney is in miami with the self-proclaimed epicenter of the bitcoin industry with a look at the fallout and what it all means for the capital of capital. kate >> that's right. many here in miami are now feeling the pain as those crypto prices you mentioned crashed investors are holding out to optimism for a rebound they bet their careers on it, but they say there's a sense of shock right now especially from the younger crypto and nft investors about how fast digital currencies and digital collectibles for how the mural has dropped. >> we've been looking to attract top crypto and top talent. it is out of miami-dade college was one on that hype and the city's namesake cryptocurrency down about 95% it's now trading at a fraction of a penny

mayor francis swar etz talked about a potential alternative to taxes and while the project has provided some windfall to the city, the mayor acknowledges it does come with a risk. >> these technologies are extremely new and always speculative. one of the things i've said is you should never invest money in something you don't, a, believe in and b, believe in it's got to be money that you're willing to invest in that way. >> then there's the nightlife. tables at clubs like eleven can cost $50,000 a recent slowdown in crypto spending that they've seen might just signal the end of conference season or people leaving for the summer and it is pretty hot here. too soon to tell if investors in miami in the long term, still very bullish, but pulling back a little bit here for now. kelly. >> is it rippling through the real estate market, kate >> it is interestingly, the crypto wealth

here has been a boom to real estate who said 10% of deals had some sort of crypto involvement and it's sort of on pause and they used to wait for the right unit or the right time now they are waiting for the market to rebound and that's really what they're watching so they are seeing a freeze on real estate crypto real estate, at least >> you have to wonder almost the miami economy more broadly, right? >> we asked frances suarez about that, as well. and they can enhance the broader economy and that's been one of the big booms for the city if they're spending less or worth less in general, we could see that affecting miami although it seems to be a broader u.s. and global problem that could be his problem. it's not just a miami problem. it's some of the issues hitting the rest of the country and the world at this point. >> crypto is the only kind of winter you feel in miami our kate rooney. >> we might be able to find it for the market according to one

technician he joins us next on "power lunch" to explain. over to tyler. ♪ ♪ welcome to "power lunch," everybody. why don't we say we join kate at that $50,000 a table club. i have no crypt onto spend i'm tyler matheson how quickly things turn. that's energy, folks, the hottest sector of the year now in a bear market like so much of the rest of the market and we will break down the sector and the moves in those stocks another sector that is changing fast, that would be housing. mortgage rates rising at the fastest pace since 1987. are cracks starting to form in housing? we will tell you that story, kelly, later this hour >> it feels like miami even up here today so hot and so humid outside, and even heating up for th