that's your call right now are we going to go into a bad recession? we're not. >> i guess we're going to watch oil closely as well. you know, we just don't get earnings for a while don't get more inflation reads for a while. we're going to be pinned on the things we can see in front of us every day. mike, happy father's day >> same to you >> to "fast money" now >> right now on fast, crude climb, crude crush wti dropping close to 9% this week but most of the slide coming today is a continued drop in energy prices a major tail wind for stocks plus, the s&p ending down nearly 6%, but in that sea of red, there have been some green chutes trade it or fade it with the winners. and one wall street firm thinks apple is still expensive this even though the tech giant has lost nearly a quarter of its value in quarter this is "fast money. on the desk tonight, tim, courtney, jeff, and steve

grasso we start off with what has been a very rough week for the markets where the s&p eked out a gain today still finished down almost 6% since monld monday i the first time it has ever done that the long time winners have suddenly become the losers with oil prices plunging 10% this week energy stocks accounted for the 12 worst performers in the s&p cotera, devan among the names down 52% could breaking the energy fever waterb become a tail wind for a rip higher tim? >> it can be part of it. i think today's rally was a recessionary rally in bonds lower interest rates was something that gave equities the sense that we're in a better place. look at what rallied today consumer discretionary high multiple tech rally those are the most sensitive to

the dynamics no question today was about oil. the selloff in oil prices, i get it i think energy prices have to stay higher. i think we all, well, i won't speak for everybody. i'll say i think the biden administration's approach to energy policy is part of the reason we got here i think some of the charade around what we're going to do to oil companies and limit exports aren't the real story. i think we can solve some of this internally, but the structural dynamics and china reopening dynamics and some things that have kept supply tight even in a demand recession today was kind of the story for the bond market. it could have been for oil, but it's really about supply that's what's going to keep oil prices elevated and i think you have an opportunity. >> i guess it depends, steve, on why you think oil prices are going down if it's a recession, that's sort of counterintuitive of it being a tail wind for stocks >> i think it's a process. first of all, i'll echo tim's words on the administration and their poor handling of the

energy complex leading up to this before we had any of these issues they were just festering that's number one. two, i think the energy prices are, those are the realtime data points, melissa. if the market was reacting off of cpi and maybe we are at peak inflation, but if we're worried about a recession, that's why the energy prices plummeted. if you have energy prices plummet, it's a process. so you start to have money coming out of energy, coming out of the entire market and then running back into the market as a whole. not a one day thing. not something that's going to happen tomorrow. i think the market is capable of bouncing, but i think the bounces will be short-term and i think people are digesting recession. >> says mr. recession, by the way. th cortney, what do you make of this bear market bounce, let's

call it that for now, and this decline in energy? >> it's had such a run up. i think seeing a pullback is getting overshadowed with the other macro economic factors ultimately when you look at the fundamentals, the supply and demand is not going to end, to tim's point. especially as we are not getting energy out of russia china's reopening. >> libyan oil is off the market, too. >> exactly i would like at the dip in energy i think buying this dip is a better opportunity than anything else >> jeff, would you be with courtney in buying the dip in energy if you think there's going to be an economic slowdown, i guess you have to believe that the sul side of the energy equation is going to remain taight >> that's been my story because i've also been saying we're going into a slowdown. the probability of recession is high, but i've been saying stick with the energy trade.

we've pointed out numerous times it was consensus, overbought i think the xle was 25, 30% above its 200-day moving average. this week, you had a sell what you can environment. just for perspective, the xle is still 10% above the 200-day. i agree. the no spare capacity issue stays with us. the china demand coming back maybe off sets some of the demand destruction you see in the u.s. and in europe i think about a stock like exxon mobil trading at nine times forward. i think it was two or three weeks ago paul was talking about we had energy and the oil markets. he said exxon mobil's forecast to have about $10 earnings per share. he sees upside of up to $14. for me, that potential upside at this valuation, i think you want to lean in the selloff >> another dynamic that's the strong dollar the move today was staggering. up 1% in a single day.

part of that is powell his unconditional commitment to price stability is a de facto strong dollar policy, tim. >> some of it is the absurdity of other central banks this week, we've got the boj still targeting the short end of the curve in 25 basis points for folks that don't know what the composition of the dollar basset is, it's about 60% euro, dollar yen and swiss frank the most important thing is our fed ahead of other central banks. i'll say this. strong dollar is certainly a help to cpi. it's not going to be great for earnings, but for the headwinds consumers face, especially on import prices, it's very good. i'll say this for stocks overall. whenever we feel that cpi is really coming down and i don't think it's really coming down even on a day with this move in n energy, stocks are going to soar if you look at the history of recessions and some of the inflation bouts we've had in our

country. we've gotten a good look at 79, 80, 84, you can see that these bear market cpi -- i was reading a great piece by rich ross at ever core. the duration of that type of a market bear rally when it's a cpi-driven recession is probably 18 months. that's the troubling thing about the market's move. we look at absolute levels of where the market has sold off. just doesn't feel like we've put in the timeline to say we've had the kind of move i think we're going to get these opportunities to trade this market, but i don't think we're there. >> courtney, materials saw a pretty stark pullback over the past five days or so are you a buyer of materials in the same way that you are energy >> i am. i focus more on energy material. i think you're starting to see that come down which is helpful on the inflation front i think energy has a lot more supply demand issue than materials do so i'd focus more on energy. >> yeah, grasso? >> i think everything is coming down, melissa.

you're talking to mr. r here i think you're going to see anywhere from lumber to steel to oil. remember my $65 a barrel oil by december this year i'm sticking with that i think you're going to see sub $100 barrel oil and i think it's going to take the entire complex with it then we'll see where everything flushes out in the next month or two. >> sounds like buy equities. >> down 50%. >> steve, go ahead just curious with that view on commodities and inflation. >> sure. i think it's going to be a phase as i said from the start so i think you're going to see all of these commodities come in pretty hard then see people get really frightened, sit on their hands and then digest it and then i would say going into the back end of the year, you're going, remember, guys, we have midterm elections coming strange things happen. politicians say anything to get

votes on both sides of the aisle. so i think the back half of the year, we're going to see a market rally i just think it's going to be very choppy for the next two or three months >> so jeff mills, this is this game, guess what the price action would be. steve's scenario is true, oil goes down 50% from where it is today, is that a good or bad thing for equities one could argue both sides easily >> i think generally speaking, it would be a bad thing for equities one of the things that market hasn't digested is demand destruction and earnings revisions coming down. it's been all pe compression that's typical you go back to 2008, pes came in, then earnings came down. 2020, same thing pes came in, then earnings down. earnings have not budged in that scenario, earnings are going to come down a lot and the

market's going to have to di j jest that. i think in that market to tim's point, where you want to be on a relative basis, i think that's when you continue to lean into growth, technology, et cetera because if there is anything inkling that inflation's coming down and the fed is going to back off, that part of the market where ps have compressed more and the earnings are more insulated from the cyclicality of the economy, i think that does relatively better >> despite the tough week, there are stocks coming out as winners, but are these names worth a buy? sounds like a question we can answer in a game of -- >> trade it or fade it >> all right that's right let's start off with fedex shares up more than 11% after the company announced it was raising its dividend courtney >> i would trade this. i think the fact that consumers have shifted more to ecommerce and couldn't to benefit them and i really like it's such a strong increase in their dividend which shows how strong their balance sheet is going forward

>> grasso? >> i'm going to say fade it. if i think there's going to be a recession, i think they're going to do less business and the last two days basically in the week, two days of it was the 13% rally. it did not even get to the march $242 highs it faded before that level so i would say wait on this one. you'll have better prices going forward. fade it. >> boeing. things s things started out rough, but the stock ended the week up 8% tim? >> i'm going to trade it let's play the game as we're supposed to play it. not time to do cart wheels with boeing i will say the strength we've had and updates out of the air airline sector are important, but max certification out of china, they're not going to be doing anything sexy in the wide bodies and being able to come pete with airbus, but maybe we got a double bottom. >> jeff mills, boeing.

>> yeah, i wouldn't take a whole lot of comfort i think it's this oversold bounce i don't know if you're going to get a consistent move to the upside i don't think i've ever trade boeing on this show. the company needs to show me more recession risk is bad. debt level's too high. issues and delays with production is leading the higher costs and margin pressure. just sort of one problem after the next generally poor execution if it gets to 100, i'd maybe play it for a trade there. >> and oracle giving up some gains after a solid earnings report, but still up for the week so jeff, trade or fade oracle? >> yes, so this is a stock we like i've sort of been talking about that defensive technology play i think this is one of them. then cloud for some upside i think they had another solid quarter. 20% growth in cloud. double digit growth for their core business and management is saying cloud's going to accelerate if you look out to that growth in 2023, they're talking about 20% growth there

i like the position. they're talking about healthcare being the biggest part of the business there's a huge market there, a huge demand for technology i like the way they're positioning for that and i think at less than 13 times forward, you have good upside >> steve >> i'm going to say this is fade hasn't been so safe. down 22% year-to-date. i think estimates were too low stock popped on earnings 10% it's already given back half of that it's been in a declining trend line for most of the year. i think it's going to stay that way. fade >> finally, jd.com looking to get into food delivery, closing out the week 6%. ambassador, trade it or fade it? >> i don't think this food delivery story is the story. i think the story this week was also more support from the chinese tech sector from the chinese government some sense that chinese stocks are oversold i know we're saying so much negative about the china economy. china equities, a lot of strategists think are a buy

here i think the china sector can be bought at this point >> courtney? >> i'd agree i think china continuing to reopen is going to benefit i like that they're getting into food delivery. >> up next, apple's drop 26% this year and one major firm says you might want to wait a bit longer before hitting the buy button and this stock may be a steal for investors. a look at the name trying to stage a rebound into the weekend. we are live from the nasdaq market side in times square. "fast money's" back in two

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so in a world where we're pricing a lot of stocks back into that context, look at the charts and do what you want, but his bernstein note was interesting because they were critical of apple's small or less than 10% recurring revenue stream we've talked so much about earnings related to the services business being part of the reason the company has rerated what i love is they use the term apple has overearned in the last, to me, that's -- saying they totally pulled forward sales. i haven't heard overearned before they absolutely overearned that's what worries me i want to get it i think we need it >> not a buyer on apple right now. it has a healthy pullback, but still really expensive and they have a lot of services sector which is great, but not a majority of their business right now. people aren't necessarily going to be out spending buying iphones if inflation's higher we're going to have to choose. are you going to buy an iphone or go on a trip.

people are going to go on the trip right now >> we have seen that shift, right, in consumer spending. so why should apple be immune? i think that's at the core of bernstein's argument >> yeah, we've been talking about the shift in spending pref renlss for quite some time the stock is still trading at a four-point pe premium. it doesn't necessarily have to get back to the average, but there hasn't been any adjustment that lack of recurring revenue means they're vulnerable to consumption which we believe is going to slow down over the next couple of quarters say eps drops 10%. even if the pe stays where it is at a little over 20 times, that's $119 on the stock and that's a rosy scenario if the pe stays at 20.5 times. could it easily get to 100 sure, just doing the back of the envelope math. >> grasso, you see the apple to

100 or lower >> yeah, verone's level brings you back to july 2020, i believe. or there abouts where it had that big push higher but as i've said when people sell this market on a flush, they sell their apples, not their zooms. that's how you know you're getting close to a bottom. i think you start flirting with this $100 level on apple it gets everyone's attention i still own the stock. longer term, i'm still bullish haven't heard about ar or vr there. i think the sky is rosy. did i mix a metaphor there i think you can have better days ahead, but i think you have to dip to 100 so i agree. >> all right coming up, pick your bounce but keep control of the ball we're laying out fportfolio protection plays and throughout june, we are celebrating pride month. your cnbc video editor

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new game what would mr. grasso say about a new stock. >> if you go back to march, the stock was trading for almost $39. if you look at where the stock is trading now, it's been cut by 50%. so i can't get excited about a little bounce in the name. it's experiencing a declining trend line you don't buy steel stocks during a recession so i'm going to say that demand is going to be cut so this little blip is a little blip people might have gotten out of it i'm sure others will say china's coming back online and things are looking a bit better for me, i think the worst is yet to come for a host of stocks and steel's one of them. >> tim >> notice how he asserted recession. steve's right on a lot of things he said and i think steel companies like some other metals and mining companies have priced in not necessarily just a

recession, which i think is part of it. in steel, i'm very worried about china's supply coming online china's demand is one thing. supply is what had it trading back at five bucks back in the day. i think the balance sheet's extraordinary. i have a position here i had downsized it i think you can nibble but the free cash flow and profitability of their business now is extraordinary. >> can we back up for a second you're worried about china's supply coming back online? china lockdowns are over so the supply will come back on, but you have a position in this stock. it could see pressure. >> yeah, so china's supply never went offline they've been pumping away. iron ore prices are really high. it's been a great time to be a steel producer in this world even when demand has fallen down so china demand for their steel, not so much. china flooding the world with their steel, which they've done countless times, is what worries man me >> it's also their competitors saying even if steel prices come

down, there's so much demand towards the industry, they're not worried about it they have such strong balance sheets to weather through even if there's a recession actually want to come to this more optimistically. i think it's a good opportunity to look at >> all right time for the final trade around the horn. jeff >> all right item i think you want to buy oracle i think it's a defensive way to play technology. i like the cloud business. oracle >> steve grasso. >> so i don't want to buy anything unfortunately, i have and i own a lot of things. >> you should want to sell a lot of things. >> yeah, but you know, i'm a longer term investor so i pick around the edges and i sell around the edges, but i have long-term core positions xle is what i want to be a seller of. the stock or etf is up over 30% for the year after doing nothing

for years and years on end take profits, xle and take profits in energy as a whole >> courtney. >> i'm going to come with the opposite exxon. buy on the bounce. it's an opportunity. >> fedex was a bright spot this week and i think the company is run better >> happy father to all the father's out there don't go anywhere. options action is up next. (vo) get verizon business unlimited from the network businesses rely on. like manny. event planning with our best plan ever. (manny) yeah, that's what i do. (vo) with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost. get verizon business unlimited from the network businesses rely on. ♪ ♪ ♪ (sha bop sha bop) ♪ ♪ are the stars out tonight? (sha bop sha bop) ♪ ♪ ♪

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time for options action. i'm melissa lee joined by carter, mike, and tony we are wrapping up another wild five days on wall street despite posting its worst week since 2020 could this be a small sign of things to come next week tonight, if you are looking for a rebound, lockheed could help you lock in gains while still offering protection for the longer term. carter and mike will tell you why and tony takes on apple. also attempting a bounce in this bellwether first, energy and the s&p have become like two sides of a scale