well >> nice risk to reward set is up in archer-daniels-midland. pricing a little under the moving average >> it was a pleasure i'll see you tonight on fast money at 5:00. meantime, don't go anywhere. "the exchange" begins right now. ♪ thank you very much. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. a pretty nice rally in stocks with the du 600 points after the market got crushed last week even as recession calls for a louder treasury secretary says the unl r unemployment rate may need to go up for five years what does it mean for the market and home sales down for the fourth straight month. one of the largest home builders seeing a slowdown.

he says slowing down what happens next is guessing and we're going to look at the stats, stock and strategy on names most exposed to the currency and cloud but first, let's check on the markets. dow up more than 600 points. 30,492 for a 2% gain s&p is up 2.5% and the nasdaq with a 3% rally to lead the way. the nasdaq is the big winner reversing some of the downward selling pressure we've been helped with alphabet up 4.5 pr. and the semis are also making a come back here check out the e trk, if around 212 a share. nvidia, applied materials. frirns their case, more than a 6% gain today. and now energy importantly, it's coming back after a big down week.

here's the price of crude in the middle 111 a barrel it's pulgsing the space higher the energy spider is up 5.5 pr after getting an upgrade to out perform at credit swift. and don't want to end without mentioning tesla puts the stock back up to 725 after falling below that level last week. still, we're down 31% this year. despite? stock rally, they're down 7% or more in june as inflation surged to new highs and treasury secretary laid out three potential scenarios to bring inflation down two years of 7.5% unemployment five years of 6% unemploiyment r one year at 10%. which would my next guest prefer jeff, welcome and which can door

would you like the open, sir >> quite frankly, all three doors sound quite horrible i don't think i would suscribe to any three of the four all due respect to larry somers. a brilliant guy, very articulate denny is someone who says we can have a soft landing. and we think that's possible but if they cannot do that, we're talking about a mild recession and the three cases outlined there, 10%, you've hardly seen that in the history of the world. you're talking about depression-era levels. and the other two are quite high i'd like to take a look at, over time, and see how ex10ed you get the levels of unemployment we think theitatau is not that negative it's not improving as fast as

people want. the market's already discounted, i think, a mild recession. if i couldn't tell "x" out the situations larry wants to describe, s&p 500 seems to be around -- i think we're almost there. when is the time to buy? not quite yet. >> goldman over the weekend doubled the recession odds they said basically the fed left less possibility of the soft landing that you talked about. i wonder if, underlaying what goldman was saying is you could get a softer period for the next little while but it's going to be more drawn out. is there something to the idea of much tighter policy okay, you get a worse recession but hopefully a shorter one followed by a stronger recovery? >> i think it will take some time

i think that we're in a period -- i don't think we're going to take excessively long for the mark toot recover. i think by the end of next year, we could see the s&p 500 significantly above. i talked about mid to late in the year i think we need to see inflation is not as bad as the headline suggests there are signs that it is calming a bit. just not as fast folks are acting like we're going to restrilktive. it's verypossible when we've gotten some of the data that the economy is already starting to calm that will improve the inflation date i'm renovating a house and my contractor, as we were going through the budget, we don't like to go over budget

as you know. they've declined almost by 50% so, calm down. maybe the labor will be out if you make changes to what you want to do but some of the materials, costs are coming in. let's just see what happens here don't predict the predictors but listening to the markets, listen on the economy and tell us where the trend is. >> and i'm still not hearing you say it's a screaming buy but you can feel comfortable owning stocks what's in the basket right now where are you comfortable being? >> we do think it's premature to say buy the dip. i think we're looking for the technicals they could get worse before better we're looking for momentum buying and rates to show signs of calming our plan is a mix of value like everything else, the average stock is down 31%.

there are beautiful growth stocks out there, as well as the practical value stocks down 40 and 50% with high quality characteristics. nice balance sheets, great growth and we've got some we listed today i would put active service now all in the categories. as an example, on the growth side, on the value side, united rental, both on that category. >> and to follow up, you didn't mention them, which i find telling. but tesla and nvidia are on your list these are hot stocks they were hot stocks and i get the question a lot these days who are wondering if the resets offer a good entry point if you're serious about balance sheet fundamentals and you're in it for the medium to long term, can you feel comfortable owning tesla and nvidia >> absolutely.

the stock was at 1200 and now in the 700. it's the most profitable auto share in the world with all kinds of other avenues, other than car, with we're talking about advanced driving mechanisms, charging stations, solar. absolute lay i guess you have to say do you believe that evs are going away? and if you don't, what an opportunity to buy tesla it was kind of hold your nose at 1200 that was tough but now they come in and it's a profitable company if you believe in artificial intelligence, they're not going away

50 from the high you bettia >> it's great to have you. i really appreciate it >> thank you >> you talked about lumber let's talk about housing where home sales dropped the name for the fourth straight month. and they said buyers are pausing and reconsidering. here with all the details. >> well, kelly, home sales dropped in may but those number s are based on closing when rates were rising but not nearly as high as today. so, retailers are predicting further decline. the realtors reported the median home price was over 407,000. the highest on record and the first time we've seen a four handle the supply is improving and still low. the realtors chief economist says he expects sales to decline as interest rates rise faster than he expected

started just over 3% and now over 6%. and that's why the chairman of one of the largest homal builders said rates are now causing buyers to pause and reconsider >> it's natural there would be sticker shock, a pause and reconciliation at the end of the day, we have a housing shortage across the country. we're going to continue to build homes and adjust price as need be >> how much will prices need to adjust and what kind of impact will that have on home owners and buyers there's strong demand. for it's just that affordability is standing firmly in the way >> and where do we go from here? >> that's the question we're going to see prices ease up a bit the builders are reporting that they're going to try to bring prices town. for it's hard to do that, given the inflation and land, labor, materials, all of

those costs. that's what it's going to take to get buyers in the market? >> as jeff was indicating, make someone like him feel more comfortable about doing that project. thank you for now. still ahead, got to talk oil we have crude off the worst day since march. snapped a seven-week win streak. has the correction now run its course plus landfall? stocks in the cloud irks trk f are down next we'll look at the currency names and ask the trader whether they can weather the storm and let's get a look at stocks with a strong 600-point rally on the dow and nearly 3% gain for the nasdaq and 2.4% for the russell 2,000.

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about it >> i'm considering it. i hope i have a decision based on data i'm looking for by the end of the week. >> by the end of the week, he said there how effectbive would a measure like suspending the gas tax be i believe it saves 18 cents a gallon and what does it tell us now that oil is trading in tandem with the market these days joining us is chief analyst. let's start with the gas tax holiday. >> like youed said, it would drop prices 18 cents pretty much immediately. the one thing i fear is it stokes demand higher we need demand destruction to allow supply to catch up to cut a normal level we need to see this time of year. >> and my understanding and our buddy has been tweeted about this, is gasoline demand in the face of the surging prices has within the past week been at the highest levels yet for 2022.

that's -- it's supposed to rise but it's rising in the face of considerable spikes in price >> gasoline demand is not falling off as much as we probably would have thought with $5 gasoline. but you don't want to trust everything you see with your own eyes everyone was out and looked like the economy was doing well by may. it's a big country out there >> below the inflation adjusted price in 2008. so, back then, it was over $4 a gallon and in today's prices about 550. we haven't yet got to a similar pressure point as we saw 14 years ago when we were tipping into a deep recession and the financial crisis makes you wonder what would have happened to gasoline price otherwise? do you expect demand to start falling? >> i do. once we get past the early surge of summer travel you have a couple weeks in june where it calms down and after

fourth of july, things to level off. when it comes to supply and demand and prices, all bets are off for july and august. because there's still a lot that can happen >> do you think oiland gas are up because of the growing concerns because it would mean more demand >> you mention before that oil has been moving a lot more at 500 over the last couple of weeks or so. i think it's a balance based on the strong move in the stock market obviously today. do you take a signal from what you're seeing. it's risk on, risk off recession on recession

>> again, it's working there's been times where the two had a disconnect from one another. a sharp drop in oil prices larger like you mentioned. and again you can disconnect at any time and it might be pulling off a little bit russia's supplies. switch to coal and gasoline gets some and where is this all going? if we continue the status quo as we start to head in the fall and winter in the market closely. it's a lower natural gas price this morning

it's cheap natural gas, at least compared to europe what's with cheap natural gas here verses europe, which is dependent on imports from russia and also from the u.s. for the first through really late this year >> it does keep more of our supply here, less of it there. lot of people say a structurally bullish market for energy. thanks for your time >> thanks for your time. >> speaking of oil, the new documentary exxon mobile at the crossroads got unprecedented access as he explores whether the company is ready for the energy transition.

here's part of the conversation with daren woods and the role in a zero carbon economy. and it's in one year so, i think it's roughly and indicate with shareholders as a result of that event >> i think you touched on two important ones our job is to learn and make sure we're responding to why did we get the votes against us? we've become a more transparent. >> and it's one of the biggest asks for investors

investors jumping ship massive inclosing for the space. for may, we saw a reversal with investors pulling money. this comes within the broader market downturn. but it's notable since it's the first months of out flows in years. in part because many exclude energy stocks, which is the top-performing group for 2022. just 18% of actively managed funds, according to rbc and according to 44% of traditional equity funds beating their bench mark the van guard etf and where u.s.a. funds both down sharply this year. john hail saying this all comes down to broader market dynamics. which drives out flows

but with growing regulatory concern and criticism foreman t -- from the likes off elon musk >> what do you think in terms of the regulatory tide? i wonder if it would take republican leadership to start aggressively pushing back against some of this otherwise, it's continuing to gain adoption and speed >> chair says it's important to have comparable and consistent information when looking at asset managers just like we can't lump them in one category because there's so many definitions, we have to differentiate between performance and how do esg metrics impact financial performance and funds focus on trying to do good. for it's the latter category we have seen funds yanked from. that's because when the economy is going to a downturn, you

don't want to sacrifice any type of performance the ones thinking about esg in terms of financial risk reward are holding the more >> coming up, this stock is on pace for a five-month win streak what's the secret? that's ahead plus european this union how inflation is boxing in policy makers this time around and what investors should do about it and here's the dow mostly green. unh, chevron and merk leading the way. only three of them now

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welcome back to "the exchange." the session high a moment ago, 618 points to the upside wore just below that with a 3% increase for the nasdaq. as always, these days, the art ketf on pace for the four positive day. top holdings like zoom, tesla and roku all in the green. tesla's up twevlt% and sort of similar vein docu sign shares slightly higher after announcing the ceo is stepping down lesz than two weeks after the disappointing results. up only 1% today and bitcoin bouncing back after falling below 18,000 we're back to around 21,000,

actually a we also today have the launch of the proshares bitcoin short etf ticker it tracks the inverse daily performance of the bitcoin futures index. and this is up, even though bitcoin is up today. tyler, go figure >> i love that so, all right. welcome to the news update, everybody. even if police waited for a key when the door to the classroom in the uvalde shooting wasn't locked he believes no one ever checked to see eif the door was locked o not. as a texas newspaper published a security camera showing police outside the classroom with a rifle and shield far earlier than originally thought. the house hearings have

begun looking at the former president's attempt to pressure local officials after the 2020 street the "washington post" says the biden administration wants to force tobacco companies to make them less addictbive. the plans of a lengthy rule making process as soon as today. and cleveland browns quarterback, desean watson has settled 20 of the 24 lawsuits filed by women accusing him of sexual assault and harassment. this is according to the lawyer of one of the plaintiffs we'll see is what happens. >> thank you so much still ahead the dollar has been up nearly 9%. today it's hitting the highest level since 1998 against the wren next wll le'ook at one sector and three names most exposed to a strong greenback ♪ (sha bop sha bop) ♪ ♪ are the stars out tonight? (sha bop sha bop) ♪

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! [ screaming ] welcome back to "the exchange." a strong dollar may be great if you're doing over the seas travel but one sector where a number of companies have already started

to warn about currency risk is the cloud and software sector. we have the story and trades adobe is down 35%. they issued disappointing and full-year guidance last friday forcing morgan stanley to down grade the shares, saying it's increased the macro in the current risk environment and mai capital's chief equity strategist frank, let's get the scoop on adobe. >> adobe gets forty-four% of the revenue outside the americas they had a negative impact from the stronger dollar. calculating that 60 to 70 cent impact adobe's ceo is confident demand will remain steady, saying in part, our software is mission critical referring to companies making

digital transformation and media companies. and those attempting to transition to the meta verse >> did you say 44% is foreign revenue? that's a big number. >> it is a big number. >> i think you sit on the sidelines. because even though the stock's down a lot, they are economically sensitive and if the economy slows, as seems to be happening in europe and eventually here, i think companies are going to start missing earnings and the multiples haven't come down enough to avoid a sharp downturn if that should happen. >> if there's a netflix moment, meiny we haven't had that just yet. microsoft is down nearly 25% this year. they kwut their fourth quarter outlook, warning specifically about the stronger dollar.

>> microsoft gets 40% of the revenue outside the americas and almost 40 from the cloud business demand for cloud should only continue to increase with recessionary concerns. in part, the cloud model prumop promotes ability, speed. on june 2nd, microsoft warns of the stronger dollar. it rose and now it's up 6% >> it's interesting because these companies have everything investors want, except for the fact that somuch of the revenu is overseas. why don't they get more benefit of the dow where at least you have clourd or recurring services business. the dollar's going to fluctuate where it's going to fluctuate. >> even the day microsoft announced, it was down on the open

and a minute ago, the net flix moment where everybody assumed microsoft is a perfect example canal of this, that the cloud is just going to keep crawling at 50% a year. for let's say it only grows 30 or 35% because the business is maturing that's a big deal for a business with a multiple that microsoft has. the whole matrix has moved that are just less expensive and might be more attractive because they've already seen the disaster that -- >> it's sort of like there are other problems this is exer baiting or being emblematic of doany of these try to hedge the dollar >> adobe did before the new cfo was in place that strategy has been changed he believes their software is

mission critical and their demand is going to remain consistent even with the stronger dollar. >> adobe was the best stock. it was jeff and adobe and the whole software as a service strategy which can transformed the whole thing. times have changed hult packered. speaking of times that have changed. they knock down 12% in the year. like adobe, guidance and lowered the full-year outlook for concern. in this case, frank, i'm less exposure but still a hit >> you know, quite bit get 62% outside the americas last year a lower guidance siting unfavorable currency. they've been down grading a week ago, saying they saw four consecutivive quarters start decelerating or turning negative as it spending starts to slow down

chris, that must be one of the best in the s&p 500. >> it's like the job of the tech market they have everything going wrong with them right now. you get all this overseas. they have china locked down. they have supply chain issues. and base clae one kind or another. the valuation, unlike adobe and microsoft reflects that. it's selling at less than 10 times earnings if the economy is slowing, yob don't want to own hewitt packard's enterprise it doesn't seem as bright a future once again, i'm sorry to do this to your viewers but i'm on the sidelines. >> are investors going to get everything returned back to them and then some if they stick it

out with hpe here? >> i think it's just not that great at hp. i think it's a value trap. >> by the way, these are three perhaps most emblematic. would you say this is the pressure across cloud and software because they are one of the biggest and most exposed to the head winds and if this is a turning point for the dollar, that's a tough call to make >> it's a lot of exposure here the rising rate impacts. you have to remember overseas outside the u.s. is real growth markets in both cloud and enterprise the u.s. is generally a first mover and early adopter of cloud moving from work loads from legacy on premes to the cloud adopting the different enterprises. they're looking for more growth in apac and europe in the middle east when you have a stronger dollar,

that hurts the potential of the growth >> strong market rebound, really tough week we're coming out of -- i mean, 10, 11, 12-week stretch at the ispoint any advice for investors more broadly here >> i guess i'm not surprised we're having a strong day after such a horrible three weeks. i wouldent put too much credence into it. we haven't seen what we'd like to see for a real bottom i'd love to own stocks for the long term. but i think you can take your time and sit cautiously. >> you were on the sidelines for the cloud and software names where would you be most favorable right now? >> you're going to laugh at me but the home builders are cheap. >> i don't laugh at all. i think that's very intriguing >> if mortgage rates are peeking and home building will soften,

then you have home builders flip four times earnings. they'll come in a little but not a lot. and they're all making a ton of money. those are not 2008 and they look interesting. >> if they collapse by 35%, what does the multiple go to? 12 >> i don't think you're in for 75% earnings lunar's number was very good >> definitely talk more about this all right. next we're going to talk some staples. they have been a relative out performer as inflation climbs. they're only down -- compared to 16% for the broader market well hear from the ceo of one household name next how they're planning to expand ♪ ♪ i am peter akwaboah, chief operating officer for technology,

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welcome back, everybody. time for show and tell where we show you the chart and tell the story today it's kelloggs. shares are higher by 2.5%. the company announced plans to split itself into three separate units, spinning off snacking, cereal and plant-based businesses there's plenty of room to grow in the head hot snacking space >> it's over an $11 billion business that will be the global snacking companies if you think about pringles, it's a world wide brand, an iconic brand think of cheese it, pop tarts, rice crispy treats as we tinker with them in international markets, they've done well. the expangsion opportunities are great. the ability to focus just in the

snack to mostly snacking space is tremendous opportunity. and our developing markets decombigger as a proportion of our sales. for it's a big growthy company. >> rice krispies everywhere. coming up the gap on german and italian bonds have widened to numbers not seen in more than w ntyears. hoceral baknkers can deal with it. you know the best way to travel is with the same three dudes you've known since 3rd grade. you know what happens in vegas... is mostly just eating... a lot of eating. you know nothing brings the guys together better than a movie,

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welcome back to "the exchange." if things are starting to feel bad at home, the eu is facing a number of pressures screating a big wall of worry. the ukraine war. and up 30% in some countries the spread between german and italian bonds has been widening. and leading to an emergency meeting gist last week

joining us fred kemp, ceo of the atlantic counsel and chief investment officer of bleakly advisory group i thought it was interesting you said the adhoc meeting was about helping italy. why that can county in particular >> some people thought it was about increasing rates but that had been cooked. you're in a situation where the credit spread has become so great. and at times of economic strength in europe, the credit worthiness of different european union's members gets tapered over and the differences really reveal themselves. and not just italy, also spain you're in a situation where the acb has to make a decision whether to start helping italy, the way it did greece a little while ago. the germans were not very much

in favor of some of the market solutions buying up italian bonds and using euro zone money to close this gap. >> are we go -- so, we're coming up on the 10-year anniversary of whatever it takes comments one of the most significant central bank moments of the millennium so far. and he was able to pull that off at the time because there was very low inflation and it was hard enough back then as it was. now we have very high inflation. how does that box policy makers in, if you think it does >> extraordinarily differ klt. 2012 was when he made that comment. that's in response to the spike in rates in those countries where the italian 10 year spread and got over 500 basis points. they went from an institution that was supposed to focus on price stability is then to lower

thing bond yields, to then wanting to shift back to generate inflation and here we are trying to now contain out of control inflation that the same time trying to keep italian yields from rising further i'm not sure how they thread this needle at all. the ecb is and financing the debt to deficits of thinks eurozone countries. price stability is number two. >> i totally agree, yet i thought it was interesting that goldman last night put out an analysis that the ecb is least likely to not hike there's no letup in the energy price situation, peter, so what is that going to mean? >> right we're talking about as institution doing qe for another week, eve an the july rate hikes, they'll still have rates below zero

i don't know how they're going to thread this 2% is their gird-or-take target there pry-covid italy's death ratio was -- that's why they are uber sensitive to their yields blowing out in compares son to germany. >> a big issue of important. if we're -- fred, in this situation, as some are joking/speculating, the european central bank could be raising rates aggressively, but also doing quantitative easing, but not calling it that, somehow sterilize it what other options do they have? >> those are the options they have you face this devil's

compromise -- do you distort the market, which you're going to have to do, or do you let italy fail, which it cannot do you try to get something goldilocks in between. this isn't just right now about the monetary financial situation. you have to preserve european unity in facing against putin in the war in ukraine the good size is you had the leaders of italy, now the prime minister of italy, with the chancellor of germany, and with the president of france, to macron, shultz and draghi are there with their romanian colleague. you wonder what draghi and shultz were saying, because this is, in the end, a political solution it's certainly an ecb solution, but everyone wants ukraine to win, but people have different views on that. if you're macron, you want to give putin an off-ramp, while

others wand to give him a dead-end, and this disunity, with a 50% growth in energy and gas prices just in the last week, six times higher than they were before the pandemic it comes together with geopolitical and geoeconomic stress together in a way that europe handle seen for many, many years. >> it's sort of frightening. did they ever resolve the structural problems that were revealed, where there's a devil's compromise at the heart of it, the stronger members support the weaker ones without any further federal integration,, like the u.s. has. >> they haven't solved an issue, and every few years we'll have a situation where it shows they haven't resolved the issues. they just can't come together on

all of this. this is one of the testing moments where european stress i don't think has been this stressed since the cold war. you have to be seen as you can handle it, and then they come out much stronger. if one can't handle it, europe becoming another problem for the world, as it has been in history. >> with that binary outcome, real quickly, peter, where do you think investors are laying their bets. >> the money in europe are the commodity companies, particularly the integrated, large oil companies, like totale energies and shell because of european problems, these trade at a substantial discount to their u.s. brethren on the energy space.

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♪ welcome back one more think bitcoin is climbing back somewhat today, but it's down 30% this month, wiping out hundreds of billions in the crypto market. kate rooney has more >> as crypto was going up, investors were looking to get an edge and created complicated, largely unregulated product to capture the yield. that murky lending model is now unraveling we've seen hedge funds like three arrowing with margin

calls, and investors i've been talking to in part blame competition. a number of projects are popping up, promising 18% to 20% yield, the amount of interest-bearing projects has roughly tripled in the past couple years. this chart is from shane analysis they do tend to be riskier on the back end, that makes a cl class. >> are calling this a mini-financial crisis. >> which attempts to track, and last note estimates in just the past six weeks analysts also point to a flight

of some of the u.s.-based cryptocurrencies, so-called stablecoin has grown by roughly $5 billion since the start of may. tether has seen the opposite affect with about $13 billion of redemption >> that does give us great insight how it's moving around or disappearing altogether thank you, indicate. that does it for us, everybody "power lunch" begins right now all right, kelly, thank you very much. we begin "power lunch" with a look it is markets they rallies right now the white house saying this afternoon it does not see a recession in the cards, but wall street see something a bit different. we'll break down the debate. and splitsville in the shares of