cryptocurrencies, so-called stablecoin has grown by roughly $5 billion since the start of may. tether has seen the opposite affect with about $13 billion of redemption >> that does give us great insight how it's moving around or disappearing altogether thank you, indicate. that does it for us, everybody "power lunch" begins right now all right, kelly, thank you very much. we begin "power lunch" with a look it is markets they rallies right now the white house saying this afternoon it does not see a recession in the cards, but wall street see something a bit different. we'll break down the debate. and splitsville in the shares of

ke-double l-o-double good. as kellogg breaks up their business. the dow is just off the session highs. we're up 2.4 for the s&p, 2.75 for the nasdaq energy, best-performing sector after the deep tro up into bear market territory last week pretty much seeing green across the complex, though. the risk for recession hanks over the market. the white house wants americans to know it's not inevitable kayla? >> that's what president biden said last week the biden administration publicly hopeful the strong

labor market and corporate and consumer finances will protect against any headwinds, but senior officials acknowledge behind the scenes that a recession is possible. they're now focused on to keep those odds down. a call to suspend the gas tax, discussed as recently as last week while capping prices on russian oil to keep it on the market, and a possible reduction in tariffs on some chinese goods. last week the biden administration administration asked for assurances from retail companies that they would lower price that tariff relief would be pursued noted economists have started sounding alarms. larry told me over the weekend because the fed must curb demand

to curb inflation, the -- this morning on cnbc president biden's top economist responded. >> well, we all certainly hope that the fed can get inflation under control without ceding too much on maximum employment when we look at recession, we're obviously watching but the bones of our economy remained solid. so we have the headwind to face these challenges. >> of course, the length of time it takes to curb inflation could erode some of that strength. >> evening when i was he's focused on lowering the price of insulin, which, of course, is great. i don't know exactly the mechanism by which that would happen, but why do we keep hearing about this move more than many others which he has

put on the table obviously it's not connected to any kind of real relief, i don't think, for consumers on the recession or inflation front. >> the reason, kelly, why you keep hearing about it is there is some semblance of support to pursue policies that lower drug prices there could be a renewed push in the coming weeks to pursue a very much slimmed-down version of the build back better, those a last 46 ditch end ahead of the mid terms. although when you specifically ask administration officials how that would help inflation, now they acknowledge it would only help on the medium through longer temple. >> thank you, kayla. washington may sea a recession is avoidable, but wall street sends a different mission.

morgan stanley's ceo sees a 50-50 chance, as does citi's top analyst. jim tierney, from u.s. concentrated growth. good to have you with us you know some measure of inflags has rolled over. the housing market may be slowing a bit so i get they -- but i'm not clear whether you see a recession in the cards either later this year owes next. >> we definitely see the seeds of slower housing has slowed down lumber has come down to

2018-2019 type of levels we're also seeing companies pulling back on hiring does that automatically mean we go into a recession? i think it's tough we're headed in that way in terms of significant economic pullbacks, so the question becomes, if that's where we're headed, what is attractive right now? so you think inflation is an elevated possibility or a probability? obviously that would mean slowing corporate earnings it would take, i assume away decrease maybe tell favor some of the companies that have enduring growth in those circumstances? >> what's interesting we've had a lot of pricing by corporates, but it seems like it's getting

tougher to come back so i think it will vac those companies i'm still not clear whether you think a recession is in the cards or not i think we do have some kind of recession over the next 12 months. >> so how should we invest i think you -- you have companies that have other drivers of growth. schwab benefits from higher interest revenues, also cost-cutting from the td ameritrade deal. so there's a way to invest a company we think can outrun any recession.

i think nike has undersupplying the market when the supply chain gets fixed, we'll see what the underlying demand is microsoft, i feel great about their chances you won't turn out of your office subscription. to an underlying demand is very strong to me that is spells opportunity. >> last time we spoke, you were more confident in the economy's sort of self-correcting ability what do you think about that now when the fed is trying to ink isle handedly push through a correction very forcefully now?

there's just nothing certainly longer term, they are commodities, they will correct, but that's the pressure the fed is facing. >> does that make you -- does that make you as an investor want too chase them higher or no >> we're a grout investor i do think there's a great cyclical trade here, but not readily what we're trying to get. >> thanks, james tierney. coming up, with multiple thinking like jim was just discussing, concerns about a weak consumer. one analyst says it's time to sharpen your pencils when investing in the semi space. the more he sharpened, the more

he cut his targets he joins us next. the most oversold stocks ready to bounce. netflix tops the list. is it a buy? find out in today's three-stock lunch. as we head to break, shares of target moving higher after the ceo reiterated the outlook for a strong back half of the year stay with us power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools, and interactive charts to give you an edge. 24/7 support when you need it the most. plus, zero-dollar commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. [ding] get e*trade from morgan stanley and start trading today. never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers, plus some of the lowest options in futures contract prices around. [ding] get e*trade from morgan stanley

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welcome back, everybody. pretty strong rally no the nasdaq between 2.5 and 3% today. the semiconductors are helping with that. the etf is led higher, and nvidia is up more than 6%. our next guest says investor sentiment is still firmly in peak cycle camp. st stacy raskin joins us now. just a typical value investor saying he thought nvidia would be the kind of stock you could own here do you agree with him or no? >> it depends on your time frame. nvidia has a one of the

long-term story. they're killing it in that business particularly around cryptocurrency, which we all know has been a bit of an issue. people are nervous about the near-term gaming trajectory in the wake of potential shortfalls you could argue that maybe they could take it down a little more, so i think it depends on your horizon if you're own it for the data story, and can will i have through the volatility, that's one you could own, but you're owning it for that story i think at some point it won't matter data centering i have bigger than gaming.

>> that's helpful. i guess my broader question, as you're sharpening your pencil, are you getting more or less bullish on the space cutting price targets, but at the same time saying some of these valuations have corrected too far to the down side >> yeah, i think it's time to start sharpening your pencils on a few of these names multiples have compressed a bit, down about 40% from the peak a silver lining event is at much or more than we typically see in a peak-to-tlof cycle what investors are looking for right now is earnings revisions, negative revisions they want to see expectations come down. multiple comes first, earnings come second, people can then feel comfortable buying the stocks broadly for the space, they have

normalized there are a few names i could away that valuations do price in especially names like qualcomm, trading at nine times its earnings, because simply anything touch -- though their exposure in smartphones is better there's a story, a diversification story that's playing out well the other is amd, trading, i don't know, 16 times earnings. there's a wonderful growth story there. they have a lot of lever that i think can carry -- they just reiterated guidance at their analyst day. they are absolutely killing it in the data center, and intel has basically admitted at their own analyst day amd will run over them the next two years, maybe longer there was a story there, i think this is a great time to be sharpening pence also. >> it's amazing that amd has

flipped the table on intel so many years intel was the gold standard now it's quite the opposite. you mentioned as an aside there, anything that touches the cell phone is -- is -- i don't know what your word was, but not good why is that? why is that? >> smartphones are weak. they've been weak, especially in android smartphones in china have been very, very weak. they don't even weaker recently because of the some of the covid lockdowns. anything that -- >> and obviously apple is using more of its own chips in lots of things, i assume, including -- >> apple is okay the apple units look all right we can argue about intelization of silica, it's a controversy, but it's probably already in the

number. i'm inferring that the great sell-off of semis is in the seventh inning or later? >> i hope so i hope that. the issue is, usually when numbers start to come down, you problem is you always get that period of a double whammy. after numbers start coming down, but if you could be perfect and anticipate the -- before it hits bottom, that tends to be the best but investors want to see cuts before they feel comfortable buying them. that's the stage year in right now. >> statesy, thanks so much we'll see you during the summer. >> you bet anytime. thank you, my friend. more and more states finding themselves or inserting themselves into the center of social debates, whether it's the supreme court and abortion or lgbt right we will discuss how this could

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all right. the supreme court is taking up a number of cases that tackle the culture wars the rule on the biggest one, aboard, could come as early as thursday they could send the issue back to the states, where some are arguing this isn't just a moral issue, it's an economic one. scott cohn is in orlando, florida, a state that's already learning about what happens when culture and the economy collide.

scott? >> reporter: tyler, one of our categories in our america's top states for business study, which we will release from three weeks today is life, health and inclusion. what is happening in florida is why this is so important we're talking about the clash between disney and governor desantis over the education law that critics says "don't say gay. disney opposes it, the governor had the tax credits revoked, now things get interesting. >> you saw what he had to say about disney >> not by any one corporation. >> reporter: left unsaid, florida is still planning to pay disney more than half a billion in subsidies to move 2,000 jobs here from california, but now disney has just announced it will delay moving the jobs from california, which was supposed

to start this year, until 2026 the company isn't say exactly why and didn't respond to or e-mails, but some employees were demanding the move be stopped. florida democrats, like state representative ascamani says this is what happens when politicians wage a culture war. >>it has an economic ripple effects, where companies who are trying to attract top talent realize they can't do it. >> a spokesperson for desantis did not speculate, and by law, the company can't create the tax credits until it creates the job. but the spokesman says florida is booming regardless. disney is an important employer, he says, but it's not the only major company or industry in florida. those other companies are

watching, though we surveyed the cnbc cfo coinsle. 50% of 9 respondents says it's important to do business in states where it's open and inclusive. the stakes get even higher when it comes to abortion by or than 2 as to 1, the executives said the state's restrictions on abortion could have an impact on their location decisions. you can read more about our study, methodology, inclusiveness and everything it will be rerevealed july 13th. guys >> can you go back to the one statistic where it was like 35% of cfos say a reputation for inclusiveness is not important where the business is located? did i get that number right? >> reporter: that's right. that's right they disagreed with the statement -- it's important to do busines in a state where the laws are open and inclusive >> that's amazing to me in

this -- today that more than one out of three would say that has no influence on where they do bus business does it surprise you >> reporter: a little bit. nothing is unanimous when you talk to business executives. we know it's important particular in this eregard of workplace shortages. you want to attract as broad and diverse of a workforce as possible when workers are in such supply. that's why you have companies like disney, al bet it under some pressure from employees on this law in florida, if they're coming out, saying that the states need to back off, but many states are having none of it >> scott cohn, we look forward to the great reveal, two weeks from today >> reporter: three weeks july 13th, mark it on your

calendar >> i'll set my dvr >> i think that's the same as prime day. >> is that right >> fun time of the year. good afternoon this is the cnbc news update the january 6th committee is hearing from the republican speaker of arizona's house about a phone calls from former president trump pushing him to win. >> you are asking me to do something that is counter to my oath when i swore to the constitution to uphold it, and i also swore to the constitution and the laws of the state of arizona. this is totally foreign as an idea or a theory to me you're asking me to do something against my oath. and i will not break my oath. >> in other news, russian officials say two alabama veterans captured while fighting in ukraine could fate 9 death penalty.

the white house responding by saying this news a appalling the two are believed to be the first americans captured since the engagement began. the u.s. forest service is taking the blame for multiple miscalculations of a fire. president biden saying the federal government will take responsibility for its role. ahead on "power lunch," supplieding staples. kellogg splitting the company into three parts should other consumer brands follow in their foodsteps. plus today's three stock nc erld names that could be due for a bounceback "power lunch" will be right back g the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated.

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time flies when you're having a rally just 90 minutes left in the trading day. we want to get you caught up splitsville in the staples sector let's start with the rally the dow, as you see there, up 630 points, or better than 2% today. growth stocks which have been beaten down so far this year, they are rising. tesla up 12%, chinese companies

pin duoduo, and splunk rising. what a weekend it was in crypto, sending crypto stocks higher, including coinbase and microstrategy. let's move on to the bond market, yields are rising. here we go again, rick santelli. >> absolutely, tyler they are definitely on the march, but there's a couple things we should pay attention to in exactly the path interest rates are taking if you look at one week of the ten-year, you'll see it was on the 14th, last tuesday, the day before fed raised rates, 0.75. just a whisker shy of 3.5, 3.50%. it sprang up to 2.75%.

if you look at the bund, it sprang up to 1.94. we were all below and all central banks that i referenced either have embarked on tightening like the bank of england, or swiss national bank, but the fact we're below those is a softer landing because of the slowing that many believe is being caused by the fed. finally there's one central bang, bank of japan. they purchased over 100 billion of them, so far defending 0.25 of 1%. you can see for yourself, fresh

new low going back to september of '98, let's call it a fresh 24-year low. >> time to travel to tokyo thank you, rick. last week, oil back in rally mode today, and pippa stevens has the numbers. hi, pippa. >> that's right, oil is in the green today, though not nearly enough to maic a dent in last week's losses. fuel demand is remaining strong, at least not time being, which is putting the floor on oil decline. for a gain of 100, brandy crude up 0.5 of 1% nat gas down 2%. now, energy stocks are also bouncing back today, the sector of about 5%. the top performing s&p group

goldman sachs said they have questions about whether the energy rally is over they don't think it is they noted with each of the prior three dips in the sector used the strong returns, tyler, back to you. kellogg shares are trading higher after the company second it will spring into three companies. so will other consumer conglomerates consider a similar move michael, welcome, it is great to have you with us let me ask, if you this i it's a smart move you have a sell rating on this stock. could this change that would you look at the company differently. >> it certainly is interesting thanks for having me on. the sell rating is what we have

to consumer down trading, we surveyed consumers and they point to meat primarily, but also cereal is where they expect to cut back. that's unrelated to this news today, but importantly, even though everyonesh cereal is only about -- less than 20% of their portfolio. if they spin that out, i think theronably expect the remaining 80% of the business to get treated with a different lens. >> that's the snack food foods part and the plant-based part, though that is a much, much smaller portion of the business. let's move on to a key question. what does this set, if anything, in this sort of packaged goods, like campbell's, like general mills.

both from acquisitions and divestitures, or not -- and trying to find acquisitions that are faster growing, so in the sense the cereal and plant-based meats together are about 20% of the current portfolio, it'sa significant size relative to a lot of deals that tend to be more ordinary. that said, there are companies like campbell's soup, for example has a close to 50-50 split. so far they have maintained they're birr off together, but that might be interesting to watch if this looks like this process is beneficial for kellogg's. that might be a bit more dramatic >> i'm sure the bankers and consultants are all over these companies, but michael, i look

at the market reaction, and it's pretty muted, up 2.6%. on a market day like this one? >> i think it really points to somewhere where we're focused, where there's a lot of dissynergies for these transactions same as when you make an acquisition, you get synergies they go the other way with this. they have new company costs they'll have to bear they won't have the support of kellogg's existing sales force, distribution, et cetera, so there are incremental costs. we think it could be at least on the low end. and so that's one thing to watch that i think is a bit part of how the market will be reacting. >> could this -- should there be more consolidation, actually, not de-consolidation

should some other player in the r arrival, who's got overlap here. should there about he consolidation, else kellogg taking someone else out or being taken out? >> if you mean for the cereal piece in particular, it's unlikely you'll have both with positions that are somewhat similar size kellogg's is a slightly number two player it would be the smaller players that may participate in further consolidation, but you never know kraft heinz was trying to be a conso consolidator they didn't very, very far, but lots of bankers involved that keep the wheels moving. >> i don't know why i keep trying to come up with different

options, but a vote of account should be 10% gain, shouldn't it >> i think your visceral reaction is right, it seems like the enthusiastic response the company was probably hoping for. >> michael, thank you very much. mike at lavery >> thanks for having me. up next, from breakfast to lunch. jon fortt has the ceo of higher coders we'll dig into that next. plus fight or flight airlines are cancelling a ton of flights again this weekend we have the action next. look at the dow as we head out it's at new session highs of 645 points we're back in a moment what if you were a global energy company? with operations in scotland,

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with the ceo that can do the work that matters. jon? >> kelly, amanda richardson is ceo of a private company that cuts through the traditional interview process by giving coding tests that are close to what they really do in the workplace. rich richardson's path to leadership was stacked with challenges. at a 22-year-old she quizzed about the digit at strategy. >> i asked the ceo something about, you know, downsizing and fixed cost of business and switch to digital, which, you know, there's a generation of people who adopt know what i'm talking about, but pretend the ceo said when i took this job before you were born, i don't remember what he said the rest of the sentence, but that was one of the skating moments and somewhere between pinching my own skin and, like, taking a deep breath, all right, we're

going to face these challenges maybe i've always been in a environment if you think you're so good, come prove yourself, but at the end of the day, for the girls out there, i always have imposter syndrome i always worry, should this -- i missed this opportunity, like i'm not sure i can do that. >> part of coderpad's purpose is to figure out who can build using the software languages and processes that a company need. that's important, because a lot of tactics can be lie hazing riduals or -- >> i think the important things, it gives the candidate space and time to work in a more natural environment. so the challenge to live interviews, this is true of all industries, but particularly pronounced in engineering, is you end up in a situation where

you're more in a stress test, and how quickly can you answer questions, how quickly can you think through a problem, how comfortable are you working through a technically complicated challenges while explaining it to somebody else while being judged and stared at and make typos it's just awful. i don't watch you write an e-mail, so please don't watch my write code so it create bias, and may not be relevant to the job. >> so a challenge for amanda know is showing the importance of coderpad in an uneven -- it helps companies figure out whether the candidates have the skills that really matter. >> i was just going to ask kind of an obvious question how do they make sure you're not cheating. >> well, it's a live interabu and the problem is complicated, so you're on, but not in that

sense. >> so we're not sitting in person together do it? >> kids are doing standardized tested. >> the live interview is 20% of the, the problem solve is 30% -- >> that's the way it works this is a piece -- and it's a longer process of actually having to code and work through a problem, but not doing it in a pressure cooker environment where you're standing in front of a whiteboard. >> there's other companies doing this as well, though, right? >> i don't know how many companies are doing this specifically coderpad is majority owned by private equity they're small, scaling up. it's a relatively unique approach to interviewing, because generally there's a big culture started by the likes of google in the early 2000s of how

many golf balls can you fit into a school bus, which really has nothing to do with coding, but way a way to filter for a certain personality. a lot of companies just want to know who can code this right, and actually work with people. even google has gotten away from doing that kind of question. >> jon, thanks, appreciate it. coming up, down but not out? some stocks have become oversold, the recent sell-off, they may be overdue for a bounce we'll be back in three think he's posting about all that ancient roman coinage? no, he's seizing the moment with merrill. moving his money into his investment account in real time and that's... how you collect coins. your money never stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america company. lemons. lemons, lemons, lemons. look how nice they are.

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welcome back time for today's three-stock lunch with stocks snapping back after last week's brutal sell-off cnbc's pro set out to find the most oversold names in the s&p 500. the team looked for shares trading furthest from their 200-day average price and screened for names that moved in greater increments than the market on a daily basis. three of those oversold stocks are netflix, under armour and etsy

joining us now is ava otto, chief investment strategist. let's kick it off with netflix, what do you think, buy, sell or hold >> buy but buy small amounts. we like the transformation we have seen. it has reduced its sg & a cost, improved its growth margin and ebitda margin so we want to reward it. however, we have already replaced it with nvidia. secondly, over the last five years the stock performance has been flat. however, the key executive has compensated himself with close to $2 billion and that's misaligned so we want to be sensitive as we see more and more companies such as docusign on the spotlight. >> so netflix not a buy for you here what about under armour?

>>, no, netflix is a buy but small positions. under armour we're not buying. never owned -- for many years we haven't owned and would sell that's because it's a company that's struggling in its area. in all three areas gross margin is dropping so we don't want to be in this area compared to its peers. it has half the revenue growth, one-fourth of the income margin. we think there are much better names in the space. >> let's move on to the last one and that is etsy what do you think here >> etsy is a hold. we own it. we are not buying more we think it's going to move with the market however, a recession could be good for them because they are a peer leader in the space when it comes to it's profitable in the space. most companies are not and etsy

is there is a likelihood that smaller competitors will be pushed out and so etsy might get the market share from there too. >> all right, thank you very much we've got sort of a buyish, a sellish and a holdish. >> traffic light. >> ava, thanks ava ados, we appreciate it. still to come, a bitter saga jetblue raising its offer to buy spirit the latest whe"perun" tus.n ow lch advisor will work with youad on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪ i may be close to retirement, but i'm as busy as ever. careful now.

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the bidding war for spirit airlines heating up. jetblue increasing its offer in hopes it will beat out rival frontier spirit and frontier shares are higher, spirit by 8% jetblue just turned lower. phil lebeau has this latest twist in the battle for the skies. phil. >> kelly, this is at least the third revised offer that we've seen from jetblue when it comes to acquiring spirit. will it do the trick well, time will tell we will know within ten days likely here is the revised offer from jetblue. $33.50 a share is what they are offering to acquire spirit that's an increase of $2 per share. there's also the agreement or they would like to make an agreement that they'll pay all of the spirit shareholders $1.50 once the deal is approved. that is payment, whether or not this is ultimately rejected by regulators or not. as you take a look at shares of jetblue, remember, spirit is talking with jetblue about a

possible acquisition that is a change from three weeks ago when there was no discussion between the two carriers then when you take a look at shares of spirit naturally moving higher today, almost 9% higher, the shareholders are scheduled to vote on june 30th so ten days from now is when there is a shareholder vote scheduled. as of right now as you look at shares of frontier, the agreement is still in place between spirit and frontier. it will be interesting to see whether or not this latest offer prompts frontier to say, okay, we'll step up and increase our offer. i think this will play out over the next week. i don't think this is the last of what we've seen in terms of a potential bidding process between jetblue and frontier. >> is there a breakup fee for frontier and spirit? >> there is. that waspart of the last offer from jetblue, where they raised it up to $350 million reverse breakup fee. meaning they would pay it regardless of what happens with the regulators so if the regulators say it

ain't happening, they're paying that $350 million. that's part of their latest offer two offers ago, but it's also in this one. >> phil, why do we keep having such bad traffic and cancellation problems at airports don't the airlines know when they sell the tickets how many pilots to book what is the problem here >> well, it's a combination of issues and i know that sounds very simplistic, but you have no slack in the system. that's the easiest way to put it in other words, the airlines are trying to maximize their ability to finally turn a profit so they have booked these flights. by the way, they brought down their schedules dramatically, more than 17% from what they originally planned at the beginning of the year. there's just not enough slack in the system in terms if there is a flight cancelled, there is a reserve crew ready to step in because of bad weather, et cetera part of this is also the fact that you had so many pilots who took early buyouts and early retirement, the training system is just not up to speed, guys.

now you have the issue do you have enough training pilots? that's not something the public thinks about we think only about the person who's flying us somewhere. you need training pilots to get these guys through the training is it many. >> fascinating stuff. >> tyler could do it >> all right, thanks phil, thank you. everybody, thanks for watching "power lunch." >> the dow is up 732 "closing bell" starts right now. thank you, kelly stocks at session highs here firmly in the green as the shortened trading week kicks off on a high note we are sitting up 755 points right now on the dow the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen take a look at where we stand broadly in the markets s&p is up 2.75%. keep in mind we're coming off the worst week for stocks. having a nice big bounceback today. the nasdaq up 2.8% the dow is up