ignoring him this is a headline-grabbing event. the analyst strategy wants to get attention. ignore it, keep your own counsel and play it safe >> we continue to fall though historic news overturning roe v wade across the board up 2 to 2.5%. and now we want to hand things over to "the exchange" with kelly evans. >> hi, everybody welcome to "the exchange." we will continue following the big story of the day on roe v wade you're seeing a lot of green on the screen behind me we're trying for a positive week the dow's up 650 points. nasdaq again leading the way with a 2.4% gain all sectors are in the green financials are up 3.5% tech stocks big in the green

the mega caps, the seminames participating. up 3.5%, back to 215 yields, that's where wea've seen a lot of action. and let's check on oil, which is actually up about 2% today last flirting with about 106 and now $107 a barrel. now we've seen a sharp reversal lately in several key market readings on inflation. especially after they hiked rates by 75 basis points last week especially with the commodity e, f dropping same story with the 10-year treasury got back to 3%, just above that right now. is it a victory sign or a warning sign and does it change where you should invest? joining us now is the cheief investment officer at boguau capital partners

is the trade buried here >> i don't think so but probably not going to dominate an investor's life like it did in 2011 >> right so, that being the case, maybe 2011 or the first several months of 2022. at one point a 70-basis point spread between energy being up 40% and tech being down. are we now going to see a major inflection point >> you know, i'm hoping so because i'm an equity analyst at heart and we are a hopeful tribe. what can i say in all sincerity, it looks like demand destruction is happening. people are probably using less gas. that's what high prices do but the economy remains oddly strong and i'm seeing it in my local pittsburgh market where small businesses can't seem to get enough people.

so, they have to reduce hours. if they could get more people, they could probably stay hopen longer and get that economy going. so, this is the weirdest economy i think we've ever seen in our entire lives >> the weirdest economy. i think a lot of people would echo that. consumer sentiment at a fresh record low horrible readings and at the same time, we have had a super strong labor market. talk to me about the kind of stocks you think are safe here the kind of names that could benefit from whatever the invarmt is we're describing right now. >> you have to define what safe is and by this, i mean your stocks are going to go up and down like the ocean does you can't prevent that but the ones i think you're going to benefit for from this economy have two different things they are safe in the respect that they have good management, great balance sheets and a track

record of product creation so, we know near a real business the second thing and more importantly. don't just buy stuff that makes you feel good and safe you need a company that has an avenue for growth. ultimately, that is what wall street rewards is growth. growth at a reasonable price >> the ever famous you have specific names like coca cola, ups why do you like these stocks >> for very different reasons. coca cola is expanding its product line and into alcohol. that's new for them. they said they would never do it and here we are. s new management that's what shakes it up ups, they have new management where the ceo fired unprofitable customers. i love that. so, she's looking to drive not just revenue but actual earnings

and i think that's a the way to go in that industry. so, both of these companies have avenues for growth, which is important. but they're rock solid businesses >> and what about net app? >> you know i love tech, right and net app has this weird living in between both worlds of on premises data storage that's what they do. but they've always played nice with others because they were the number two data storage provider so, the number two position has given them a strength and enterprise moving data to the cloud. so, i think they're uniquely positioned for growth. not everything is going to end up on snowflake or aws or microsoft azure. some needs to be on premises

they've always worked in a hybrid world >> you want to leave us with a parting comment? if people say what's your feel now that we've had a massive reset in valuations and prices some sign oofz slowdown in the economy but not frankly all that many what's your gut telling you right now? >> you're going to have to be brave but have faith in the companies that you've picked these aren't lottery tickets they're businesses that show up every day to work for their shareholders, their employees, their community and their customers. have a little faith. >> well said a rallying cry always great to have you thanks let's turn to what we're calling the week that was in housing seems like we need a lot of breaking down the data as we work through a weird time in this market. to the rise of arms, a lot has happened in the last few days.

let's get to diana with the breakdown. home builders up 3% today. >> that's right and because what i want to start, which is the latest news on sale of newly built homes. up nearly 11% and 6% below may of last year these numbers are based on contracts signed in may and that was before the most recent spike. some may have rushed in, worried rates would have moved higher and these buyers would have lost their rate as few months earlier. we've had earnings releases from lenar and lenar's chairman said he saws a real turn around at the start of june. stewart miller said the effect of high prices and higher interest rates are causing buyers to, quote, pause and reconsider s jb holmes ceo said sales rates are are moderating from the recent exceptional levels.

the difference in kb is they have a bill to order model so, baers can work to reduce costs and they're not left with a huge back log of unsold homes. sales fell again in may. those numbers are based on closing. those are contracts signed in april when rates were lower. weakness is affordability and lack of supply the number of homes on the market is increasing, up from 27% from a year ago. but it's still half of prepandemic levels mortgage rates pulled back the average rate on the 30-year fixed at 5.885 still nearly double what it was six months ago and combined with inflation, it's making it hard to afford just about everything and that will likely continue to cool the market. we did see the jump in adjustable rate loans because they do offer lower rates. >> and the most stunning fact about the housing industry

remains the one you and i talk about, the pe ratio. to see 2.5 and three and four times tells you we're at a historic juncture where either the stocks are going to collapse by 90 fooer get back to historical valuations or they're the bi of a lifetime andit seems one of these uniqu moments an industry, a sector would ever offer i know many people on both sides of the trade >> both sides of the trade i would note the health of these home builders is pretty good even when stewart miller was saying he exect pd sales to come down and this is a pause and are reconsider he said the margins were strong, well prepared. he set up the we're batting down the hatches scenario but wore ready. this is nothing like the builders saw when they were not prepared and when the fundamentals of housing were not as strong. that's what i keep arguing is

while we're seeing the cooling off, the fundamentals are still strong >> thank you for now the week that was in housing up next we'll get ecorporate responses from health care and tech today's historic supreme court decision thaovt erturned roe v wade live look in front of the supreme court. "the exchange" is back in a moment and thanks to voya, i'm confident about my future. -oh dad, the twins are now... -vegan. i know. i got 'em some of those plant burgers. -nice. -yeah. voya provides guidance for the right investments, and helps me be prepared for unexpected events. they make me feel like i've got it all under control. [crowd cheers] because i do. okay, that was awesome. voya. be confident to and through retirement. what if you were a global energy company? with operations in scotland, technologists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform.

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welcome back, everybody. welcome back to the big corporate story of the day that leaves states in charge with widely differing approaching and we've already heard from corporate america here's the reaction from the health care world. here's the reaction from the ever vocal big tech. bertha, let's begin with you >> this is going to create, basically, a patch work of laws, benefits laws for providers, for health insurers and large insurers we've heard already from united health group who says thal rrb have comments soon cvs health who says it's going to work with employers and consumers and provide access to travel to be able to get legal abortion for its own employees loikly banning insurers from covering abortion in their

borders and fully insured employer plans is going to be tough, particularly for smaller employers. >> i do think it's going to be complicated. i think we're going to have to address it as a company and our benefits packages will need to adjust do we provide travel benefits? and it's listening to your customer and employees and i'm committed to listening to mine and abiding by state legislation and so, i'll find something in the middle there >> reporter: that was ceo of walgreens. speaking to me yesterday at the aspen health festival. one of the things this is going to impact is the telehealth providers as well because more than half abortions performed medically. a lot of times a person might go to a telehealth provider or their provider and get a prescription

so, the pharmacies are also impacted by this as to where they'll be able to dispense those prescriptions for what people call the morning after pill a number of employers have already said they will provide access to travel so, that could include, for example, someone in a state where it's banned, traveling to a state where it is permissible. getting a prescription doing it there privately not necessarily a medical procedure. we've heard from the american medical association which has condemned the ruling and says it will have the back-up doctors. doctors, hosa pitals and other providers will be on hook where they're not going after the patient who seeks an abortion but may try to go after providers. this is certainly an evolving situation. and even though they've been

looking at this the last two months are still evaluating what the legal options are. >> what about large companies that are self insured? >> they have the most leeway so, if you have a small company, most likely you will have a fully insured plan from an insurer and that is go tag be subject to state rules large insurers under the employment retired income security act, they have more leeway because they have national rules that they can apply for their benefits but those rules do not allow them to break the law. so, if a procedure is illegal in a state, they can't do it within that state, which is why many eare looking at travel options i've spoken to benefits managers who say they might only provide a stipend for travel and not cover the benefit in their benefit plan others are doing both, providing travel and covering the benefit in their plan where it is legal.

>> thank you very much for that run down let's turn to steve kovac with the latest from tech >> responses from tech companies and executives let's start with meta's out going ceo taking a personal tone and sharing a story about a family friend who had to leave the country before roe and saying, quote, the supreme court's ruling jeopardizes the health and lives of mill yngz of girls and women across the country, threatens to undue progress women made in the workplace and to strip women of economic power it will make it harder to achieve their dreams and disproportionately impact women with the fewest resources. and telling us it will provide resources for employees who need to travel for reproductive care. bill gates calling this a sad day and, quote, unacceptable setback. then there's dating company bumble which put their abortion

ban in effect today. saying it will donate to the aclu and planned parenthood and additionally supporting employees in need of that care and others echoing similar sentiments, telling us they will do the same by providing that financial assistance and those include companies like block and paypal then ceo telling us in a statement business leaders need to push for abortion rights legislation saying, quote, business leaders must step up to support the health and safety of employees by speaking out against the wave of abortion bans that will be triggered add a result of the decision and call on congress to codify roe into law >> she put it well when she said she's trying to strike the balance between what her imployees need and want. we'll continue to bring you all-headlines as we get them in from the corporate world

priscilla sims brown will join closing bell at 3:00 p.m. eastern. that interview today at 3:20 eastern time still ahead, rev laon, the firs household name to file for bankruptcy in a long time. we'll tell you where and why and inflation is hitting inventories and the ripple effects arebying felt around the world. whether we could see more shortages this holiday season. a lock at the heat map of the dow 30 with only two names in the red right now. nid al alude utehethnd verizon. salesforce is leading the way. being having a strong session as well indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing!

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welcome back, everybody. stocks are on pace for the first weekly gain in the last four with the dow up 660 points let's get to dominic chu at the new york stock exchange. >> the weather is pretty good and so is the stock market there's a lot of positivity with regard the markets some do say they got caught a little off guard by how strong the rally was to start the day and continuing right now so, watch the closing bell it's going to be a very eventful one. if you look at the gains of broad base it's even for the dow, s&p and nasdaq 2 to 2.5% gains for each of the major industries the rip higher in transportation stocks carnival probably factors in

those results and stocks helping to power the dow jones transportation stock index you see the near term down trend that woevl seen but the tick higher over here is one where they're saying is it something where this is a bottoming process taking play or is this just a bear market rally and stocks that are economically sensitive. from stock-specific perspective, you have to catch what's happening, specifically the big banks after the stress test results. the fed giving an all-clear signal wells fargo up 7.5%. bank of america up 1%. citi group up 3.5% the bank complex in genual reacting very positively started adding to the economically sensitive narrative in the markets right now watch the banks in big tech as well >> haven't heard bullish in a while. thank you very much.

let's get to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update president biden addresses the supreme court decision that overturned roe v wade this morning. within the last hour, he called today's decision a, quote, tragic error, pledging to fight any effort to prevent women from traveling out of state to terminate preg maens and calling for a federal law protecting abortion rights. >> this fall roe is on the ballot personal freedoms are on the ballot the right to privacy, liberty, equality, they're all on the ballot until then, i will do all in my power to protect a woman's right in states where they will face the consequences of today's decision top republican in the senate has a very different reaction. in a statement, mitch mcconnell praised the court's ruling as,

quote, courageous and correct saying it fixed a legal and moral error. donald trump some appointed three of the supreme court justices that overturned roe he said, quote, it brings everything back the states where it has always belonged the house is voting now to approve the bipartisan gun legislation that passed the senate yesterday that will then send it to president biden for his signature. tonighting on the news with shepherd smith, extensive coverage of the high court's abo abortion ruling and what comes next >> next week is a big one with general mills, constilation and wal green's reporting. all the stocks are in the green. we have recession fears rising and during june, cnbc is celebrating pride month and featuring teammates and contributors here's senior executive producer

ray parisi >> no matter who you are or where you're from, personal and professional success is built on a foundation of confidence and self worth so many lgbtq youth, that foundation has been cracked by shame, discrimination and hate that's why pride is so important. it's vibisility, voice, and power and those are things we should celebrate 365 days a year

welcome back, everybody. the consumer staples sector isn't the one you typically think of when you think of recession. not all staples are created equal. how do we find the quality ones? let's ask the lady with the top staples pick and one to avoid. global ceo and cnbc contributor. really honing in on those staples. your first one is general mills. it's up 3%, which is nice performance in a down market up 5% this week ablown why would you want to chase it >> well, so, this is a great, great company. it's hitting singles and

doubles. 3% growth but expected to be positive they're the kinds of products people continue to buy but they have a healthy balance sheet 2.9 times the debt compared to 3.5 and you don't want to be exposed to the rising interest rates and quite frankly, at their valuation of 17 times, which is just below the sector so, it's really all around a good, solid holding. >> just for the heck of it, here's my big picture question let's just say people start feeling a little more bullish because the feds tamped out some of the worst inflationary pressures and maybe we're not going into a recession could we see staples underperform broadly speaking in the next leg of this market? >> so, pausably but if you lock at the valuations, it's just trading barely above the s&p

if you look at expectations for some of the growth, some of these names, actually, there's still healthy growth built in there. and if you go into a cyclically bullish cycle, it's better so, from that perspective, you can play this both ways. we're looking at defensive names but it's an interesting space. >> i take your point let's talk consolation brands, which i think are more discretionary than staples morgan stanley reiterates the top beverage pick. tell me the attractivenesses for you. >> this one had a great run during the pandemic. the pandemic had a lot of day drinking and drinking in general. recessions also caused that. we're still expecting strong growth almost 16/17% growth is expected next year. if you look at the operating

margins, which if you think of all the things that go wrong, it's inflation is driven by all of the commodities inflation, rather than the kind of inflation that interest rate hikes tend to address. then you care about operating margins. a 26% margin that's a pretty big space to be able to deal with really persistent inflation >> so, you like general mills, consolation brands your third pick top of the hour, your third pick is coca cola she liked it because of its pivot in the alcohol business. we talk about the body armor acquisition. why do you like the name here? >> so, quite frankly, if you look at the base product, the expectations for eps growth for this name, 25% next year that is pretty healthy that's a name you can flex into even if we go in a bullish cycle. and you get the kicker that they also have about a 26% operating

margin so, you get literally recession proof and inflation proof. this is a stock that looks really attractive. for it's trading at a premium because of those factors and you have to accept that because this is a hedge in both directions >> isn't 25% earnings growth coca cola too high does that look too aggressive to you? is there a risk they have to take that down >> even if they do and you end up with a higher eps, you're still looking at high profit margin that will still allow you to collect some of that what we're evalling against is what does the demand look like in a potential recession and how much flexibility do they have in an inflationary environment. >> and they've probably tried to demonstrate they know how to navigate anything you throw at them at this point those are the names attractive to you in the sector

wal greens is the one you would bail on and it's down 20%. what's going on here and why isn't it a buy >> everything i told you wore looking for , exactly the things wal greens doesn't have. they have really narrow margins. you look at the expectations for growth next year analysts aree expecting a loss next year. if you have continued pressure or input cost pressure if they have trouble dealing with getting inventory, this stock gets hit and that's the expectation. you could argue maybe it's cheap enough >> and i'm surprised they haven't benefits more. the stock isbying treated the way that it is is there anything in the sector that would warm you up to them,

them or rivals in the space? >> it's interesting one of the spaces we look at is dividend yield. and this stock does give you dividend yield we do look for opportunities there. that's probably the only space this stock might get love is because it's actually a yielder. >> and final word on the markets more broadly where would you rank staples sector wise in terms of your preference and do you think we're at a cyclical turning point? >> you know, i don't think we're at a cyclical turning point yet. for i actually think the rhetoric coming out of the fed is quite worrisome they are attacking an inflationary problem they cannot have an impact on, which is commodities-driven inflation we went from the supply chain inflation, wage inflaigz. for that's working itself through and it's going to work itself thoou. the kind of inflation driving

inflation today is entirely commodities based. if we ekeep pressing that rate hike pedal, you're if wing to put us in a recession and we're not going to get the inflationary result. >> is it possible they succeeded in cooling things down >> you have a labor market shortage to worry about. >> you do and wage dproegrowth s already turned a corner, meaning it's already started to fall we don't have the same level of unionization and contract negotiations, even though you hear about them. for it's a small part of the labor segment. for so, this inflation won't get baked into contracts and that is important because it

means we don't have momentum in that inflation and the numbers are already starting to cool >> we'll leave it there. thanks for your time gina sanchez coming up, there's a shift in the supply chain. as inflation changes spending hab habits and the details it's having on the holiday.

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to search for it. welcome back cnbc has been tracking the supply chain, and according to companies surveyed, current manufacturing orders are down as much as 20 to 30%. cnbc's senior editor is here onset with me. she's got the very latest and where are logistics managers seeing the pullback? >> in lumber, in home decor. they're seeing it in furniture and big appliances

>> and where is this in particular, that hit home? >> in terms of ---ing. >> the supply chain, china, maybe vietnam. >> when you're looking at the furniture aspect, that's vietnam, china and malaysia. >> so, tell me about this. we've seen home construction like lumber. it feels like that is where this originated and where it's now spreading from what would be the next shoe to drop >> are they going to cutback on apparel and foot wear but they're not. and that's where you're seeing the strength i spoke with the national retail federation on it, as well as american footwear association saying are you seeing this pull back or my folks are not seeing in the supply chain. they said people are buying clothes for traveling with experiences. everyone already bought a dish washer and refrigerator. >> so, the curiouses thing is

when walmart and others have saying they have an inventory problem. it looks like fleece sleep wear for instance or certain types of summer categories. maybe packing up to use next year why aren't we seeing a bigger impact in terms of apparel and items. >> if you go into a certain store, you may see certainite ams that you're like it's not that cute or you don't want to open up that wallet. if you're going on vacation, you might want that new wind breaker, pair of hiking smus it's that discretionary spending did what they buy hit the mark on consumer. >> what are you getting from the sense overall from the figures if i were jerome powell, what is this telling you >> that they're being more selective in their dollars spending more money on the gas tank if i'm really going to spend $50

on something, what am i going to buy. it's that yin and yang where you're not spending freely you're thinking twice. >> even more already for the holidays, right? >> i actually checked the bills on import genius and we're seeing christmas trees and halloween costumes it's all coming in right now this is seasonal so, this is already expected >> are they doing the same amount of seasonal >> i can't imagine being someone who runs a home depot and trying to figure out what shape the consumer is going to obe in between recession, massive rate hikes, changing preferences. how would you possibly figure this out >> i recently spoke to the ceo of tractor supply. he started looking back when it came to various things in the supply chain about six or nine months ago you have to kind of look at what you're buying.

i'm going to look at the higher price side is this okay to put this in? if there's another item where it's squishy, you hold back on that they're really picking and choosing as they move forward because it used to be six months to plan ahead. now they're looking at maybe three months >> oh, wow does any of this tell you recession like in proier downturns? >> when i did speak with the ceo, he said he's seeing inflationary pressures at least until next year this time. he thinks we're going to see inflationary pressures over the course of the next 12 months i think it depends on the consumer, how much money you make, as well as how much you're willing to spend >> and on top of everything else, we have, as we talked about, labor shortages and pressures. what should we expect there?

>> the labor negegsiations which expire at the end of this month. they did say don't fear. because of this, you have severe congestion a new supply chain for you and you literally see the congestion building up on the east coast o this was expected. i've been on before talking about you've seen the flow of trade moving thankfully these ports are able to open. you have one terminal your import containers are waitingall a most 24 days to get through the port >> so, there's a a lot on. we get more breaking news out of washington the house just passed bipartisan gun legislation after the senate passed it yesterday. now it heads to president biden's desk, where he's expected to sign it into law

the president calling it the most sweeping gun legislation in decades, saying he's glad congress is, quote, finally doing something. coming up, crude prices well off their highs and above $100 a barrel accointone ergrdg oney investor, things could get tighter. the beld case for energy next. p ♪ are the stars out tonight? (sha bop sha bop) ♪ ♪ ♪ alexa, play our favorite song again. ok. ♪ i only have eyes for you ♪ ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "the exchange." with a national gas stax holiday proposal and asking oil companies to ramp up supply. my next guest says supply will be out stripped and any government intervention makes things he worse. portfolio manager of the midcap value portfolio. welcome and dwrm especially glad you're on today. sentiment has got bad over the last 10 days why should investors not jump ship today >> when you think about the energy situation, there's no long-term solution that's been proposed frrt i thought it was interesting the other day.

the ceo of chevron wrote a letter a lot of people looked at it one of the things that was striking in that letter was in the first paragraph he said there weren't any short-term solutions. and i agreed with that there weren't any short-term solutions. we're slightly under supplied or slightly undersupplied everything that's been proposed, whether an export ban, windfall profit tax, dropping gasoline taxes. some of those will make the situation worse. but really there's been nothing proposed for the long run and that's what's concerning >> the bears will say we had a 40-point rally in energy and now we have signs of a correction in inflation and to some extent, a healthy normalization of the environment. maybe recession. why couldn't we have an oil priced in the 90s instead of

upwards in the 100s from here. where do you think the price clears for the supply and demand you're seeing? >> sure. so, when we think about what the fair price of oil in a balanced market, we use $65/70 a barrel well below where we are. the question is how do we get there? historically, when the way it e generally too much supply so producers become overly optimistic if you look at the last time oil was $100 a barrel producers, management teams were very optimistic that growth in china, emerging markets, was there an insatiable demand for oil, so any project they could put on was going to put on the long run. so they were doing oil projects, deep water, exploring in the arctic, et cetera, anything to bring oil on today it's the opposite. no one has any confidence in the long run that's really difficult for the energy business. it's a depleting business. these companies are on a

treadmill. if they don't spend production declines when we look around the world, deep water, and offshore is about 30%. there's not a lot of exploration going on >> russia's produced and that's about 11%. >> there's probably going to be a smaller market and they're proba probably not spending a lot of market in the u.s. and there's drilling and it's just too small. >> what about refining and that's what they put a spotlight on and they know it's contributing to higher gasoline prices would i, as an investor, would want to own the refiners here if it sounds like there's not going to be any significant expansion in supplies for some time? >> the refining market is tight and it's why, because refineries close down because the expectation was there wouldn't be enough demand and the difficulty with refineries is it takes a long period of time to build a refinery we have to expect that demand,

ten, 20, 30 years from now will be there, and so there's just not a lot of short term investment that you can put in there. eventually we think the refining market does get sorted out, but that will take a long time >> how long and are they names that you and i discussed in the past like cosmos, barry and ranger oil >> sure. we favor the exploration and production stocks, and the investment thesis is pretty straightforward. if oil prices were to crash down to that we think of as a fair price, 65, 70 and you're getting some of the most undervalued stocks in the market and they would have 10% free cash flow yields if the situation persists and we have a very tight market which we think lasts for a long time, these companies are generating 25 to 30% of their market caps in free cash flow. what are they doing with that? they're buying back stock. there just isn't enough stock for them to buy back after a few years they would have bought back theoretically

every share that was outstanding. >> political risk, demand being what it may. you're sticking with the space stan, thanks for coming up to make your case >> it may soon have company. why retailers could be facing a wave of bankruptcies and the names that could be next new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done.

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>> welcome back. revlon filing for bankruptcy protection next week and it may not be alone why there could be a risk of bankruptcies and the names most at risk, lauren? >> thanks for having me, kelly so revlon's bankruptcy filing last week, that was just the fourth retailer to file bankruptcies so far this year and that's the lowest point in total count of bankruptcies that

we've seen to this points about half way through the year in over a decade. so how did we get here if you remember back in 2020, we saw a massive pull forward of bankruptcies particularly in the retail space as consumers pulled back on spending and many of them like neiman marcus and j. crew had been weighed down by debt from leveraged bayouts. so because of that pull forward, 2021 and the start of 2022 have really seen a slowdown now, like you said, questions are rising around when can we see more is this number about to tick back up and what could be the factors to cause that are three things to watch. the first one is for the most part the window of opportunities had to tap into the debt markets has largely closed from what i'm hearing and the second thing to look for are continued supply chain issues so when you look back at revlon, sure this was a company that was

saddled for th$3.4 billion in dt and a number of supply chain issues couldn't get his hands on raw materials used to make his makeup products and this will be particularly important around the holiday season is just consumer demand, where are people shopping and if we see a pullback in categories like home furnishings or apparel then you can anticipate after the holiday season then those are areas where we could see more distress >> it's not necessarily just the sort of looming debt -- am i trying to say, it's not just the debt that the ace companies have. >> maturities. >> exactly, that's the issue so much as spending trends so retail, home furnishings. i don't know if there are particular companies we can single out here, but what are some other places to watch for the next shoes to drop >> yeah. exactly. those are categories whether the home goods and apparel in particular, that's where you can

see a surplus of retailers, and also retailers that have a lot of real estate that narrative of just america being very overstored i still think is true, and of course, banks can use companies as a tool to break leases that's something to watch for, companies that have a lot of real estate. like you said, there are really not a lot of businesses within the retail and consumer landscape that have maturities coming due in 2023 and 2024. many used the past year to push out the maturities just because they were able to strike those sorts of deals if you look at where the ratings agencies, they have lists of companies most at risk of default. some names on that list are rodent and fields. the marketing beauty business has been named a few times, also serta simmons, a mattress maker. it's all over the place and

company by company depending on how much debt they have and the health of their balance sheet. >> it has been a great point and it's been oddly quiet and we may not hear, that cab a trigger lauren, thank you very much. our lauren thomas, keeping an eye on retail and we are a week away from one of the large effort ports of america and what would it mean on the story of the year we'll have that on "power lunch" this starts righ ♪ ♪ >> and it most certainly does, kelly. welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. i'm tyler matheson, this is a very busy day on several months and look at the markets and the averages of at least 2% today and 5% on the shortened week, one of the rare weeks where we've had green numbers as we slide into the friday close, and th of course, the supreme court

overturning roe versus