worth it to resist that temptation. i would say go to school, get an advanced degree, and stay out of trouble. [ inhales deeply ] wish i had that advice back [ inhales deeply ] wish i had that advice back then, but...

>> if i clear that out and would go to the next chart you see i have that in there already. so we have filled this gap. the market had a rare circumstance adapting friday and again

monday. we have filled that gap and i think we will fill this gap and then this entire move would be about nine% or 10%. from there it gets a little bit harder but that is a lot. >> mike, what do you think? >> i think that is true. i was adding this week, one thing we saw in the gap downward is that some stocks did very poor. there are names that are getting cheaper. the big driver for the market going lower has been inflation. what is the best cure for rising prices, rising prices. >> people think that will pull some places back. one other thing we have seen is

get things combined for more equity. >> we also see a huge round trip and that has led to tech names getting the etf up 18%. >> that is right. the piece last week, a temporary bottom is holding. it's still the first big line. it is a downtrend. we're seeing some port down here. we could see 4200 on the snp. the rally goes to more opportunities to sell rallies rather than play a sustained bounds. we are looking to take privateering to the next few weeks. has get to that level, we will start adding some exposure to

the downside. >> okay. for short term bouncers, does that depend on yields moving lower? >> the yields have pulled. commodities have cooled. is about sequencing. by the dip. it's an uptrend that holds up. when you're in the drowned trend the reciprocal. this is one of those. it's the rally in a downtrend. you can carry only so far. it looks like there is more of that to go. >> okay. the only sector not seeing gains is energy. two% lower. will the oil slide continue? carter has us on this one.

>> right. it's something so popular. it is the road less traveled. energy, here it is. this is a good one. 10 session , 31% decrease. >> let's move forward. it has led to a trend line. there is a selloff, it is well defined. up. up. up. does that mean we have it? >> yes. let's give it one more up. bounce, uptrend after 31% decline. >> then xl e. the relative

performance continues to be poor. xle is down. those are the middle. that's what i like best. okay. drivers for energy and oil remain intact and the biggest challenge to try to purchase recently is in the premium that happened after we saw the invasion. that is almost entirely been reversed. it was trading i did before ukraine, 110. it was a lot of her companies that have been for the x generation. xo p's exploration and production.

you have marathon and philip 66 in there and then integrated in there. this is an equal atf. the other thing is oil that is natural and remains in a bullish formation. i think what i would use here is a cost versus risk, 110, 130. you could close at even with the trade. that could increase the cost spread. and, by the way, that 110 was the high before the invasion. i think that would be in the entry point a pickup point traded. i spoke to carmen mike.

i think it tells you a little bit about i i think on the tray. we had the same thesis but i use the same trade structure. instead of going through the thesis and charts again i think i will talk through the risk reversal. it is more complicated than we typically use and the important thing to remember here is that there are a few different ways to break down this into smaller components that you could be more familiar with. the most important thing to remember is that right now the implied volatility on most energies are extremely elevated. and sop, the implied volatility is 84%. it is difficult to by exposure in these names to the upside. mike is using calls to by 134 $7.50. that is six% of the value and

he is selling 110, 150 structure. he is effectively getting the call of 130 by sewing the straddle. you have to buy the etf at 110. that is without all of this pre- russian ukraine invasion role. this makes a lot of sense with implied volatility being so high. >> bylines airlines need this. if the group is ready to break out, is that a way to play it? >> yes. the airlines have been hit. now is the opportunity to

capitalize on airlines. if we look of the jet etf, international airline etf, it has been trading in this clear channel. we have seen a bounce off the bottom bounce and we are headed back toward the top end of the channel. despite the lower wealth we made on the etf, relative to the market, jets have made a higher low. if we look across the entire spectrum of airlines, it was one that jumped out at me. it is united airlines. what we see here is that despite an airline that the analysts hate, this has held up. it's one of the best. it has

broken out relative to the etf. this is where not a lot of investors are looking. if you think about expansion into international travel, booking data will back this, united is 12 pick for a breakout year going into the next couple of months. the trade structure to use this the cost risk reversal. the downside will remain fairly high. were going to put the call spread as part of that. we buy that for about $2.87, seven% of the value. i am limited only to seven% and you have about a 2.5 return on the capital. >> okay. mike? >> yes.

they have a good cash provision rate. is $12 per share not that long ago and will make telemark eight . what about china? >> continued trust this rally? what is the best way to trade it? >> okay. options action is coming back right after this. >> trading isn't just a hobby. it's your future. so you don't lose sight of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim® is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools.

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welcome back. check out the china atf. it's on base for his best month in two years. be scream of more funds on the way. >> looks good. then an 80% decline. that means it is a lot. your i can kind of see that we moved above. let's put that in and first we will look at the formation. is that a cup and handle?

you can call it whatever you want. if you're in a downtrend you should make each a new low. we failed to do that. when we sunk, we did not make a new law and now a high. let's put in that line and the if you zoom in, you can see, we have just gone above the down trend. now let's put all of this together. we might want a reversal formation and a downtrend as we move above and then the big green arrow. >> okay. the fundamentals lineup. the tech crackdown has used up. it seemed like they might lineup. >> they do. everything was going against the chinese for a while.

many times on the way down people were looking at these stocks and thinking they were great bargains. it doesn't help you when everything is going against you. now the tide is turning. these stocks are cheap. less than 15 times and growing. this is remarkable. some people are going to find it difficult to chase a 50% rally. in the exiting markets, we store this concern that we might be bouncing in a larger downtrend. so to trade this, i was looking in august. the rationale is that you can lower the breakeven and lower the decay. options on this are quite

expensive and the call spread was about $3.50 in the layout. essentially, the google lower strike, that is in the money. this reduces the decay and what we need to the upside to breakeven. >> okay. the in the money spread refers to a equity. i took a large position. i was up 17% since then. just getting started between. look at this camp.

there are a lot of different tech names here. if you look at the obvious stocks, they are jd. they are strong performers over the past couple of years or they did not underperform as much as some of the other big names in the etf's. one thing worth taking a look at is pop by if you want to buy some of these stock risks. look at the chart for ali baba. you have is half a decade of outperformance. then with the regulatory pressure we have seen the key foundations over the past few years. this is where we start to see ali baba start to outperform. they have been playing away at e-commerce as a lock down

started to ease there is big data out of ali baba. now is the time. play some great names that i think will outperform like ali baba. >> yes. what you make of the chart? >> all of them have said i think you want to embrace the theme through an etf. okay. some of your pressing questions. options action comes up after this. >>

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if you want to go in and buy a bit, i would be tempted. >> okay. next, one fan is wondering about gamma magnification. this sounds like a good question. >> yes. whenever there is a split people are confused about what happens to options. the number of shares gets multiplied and the gamma gets multiplied. the important thing to remember is that the share price itself is also getting split. when you think about gamma they multiplied by the number of dollars the stock moves. it all comes out in the wash. >> okay. >> and sachs has gotten hammered , would you use a september call spread? >> tony? >> the fullback is constructive.

it's a long-term value investor move. this is a discount, 10 times average over the last five years. the better places for capital. look at selling some money and take advantage of the elevated premium to protect yourself on the downside. >> how does the goldman chart look? >> the financials across the board, it is not compelling. i would not be tempted. >> time for one more question. eli lilly has new products and we lost. high pe but new drugs. what is coming into august 5th earnings? >> if you owned this you have had a heckuva run and i would

get out of that and into a bullish option positions or selling strike ones. this is not cheap for a company like this one as you may think it would be. >> up 39% in one year. >> it is impressive. you have to respect that gap. there must be something good going on. >> coming up next, the final call. stay tuned. >>

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halliburton. i sold that in april. i started getting back into that as well. >> okay. we will see you next to week. don't go anywhere. money starts right now with joe kramer. >> (audience cheering) - [announcer] the following is a paid presentation for emeril's all new power airfryer 360, brought to you by tristar products incorporated. - hey everybody, it's emeril with huge news. we're introducing an all new pro-grade appliance that now you can have in your home. so, get ready to kick it up a notch. (audience cheering and clapping) - [announcer] we all love fried foods, but we hate all the health problems they can cause. what if you could make your favorite fried foods without so much of the unhealthy fat and calories? now you can. introducing emeril lagasse's all new power airfryer 360. the air fryer with quick cook turbo heat technology