it needs to get big results. >> thank you for being with us. it is great to see you. we hope to see you very soon. were going to take a quick title check on the markets right now. the head of the open this morning, we're going to show you the screen. it is green across the screen. we will see you tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street". global stock markets, u.s. futures, commodities, yields are ticking higher on the news that china continues listen covid restrictions and quarantine rules for foreign visitors. sheathing's the u.s. is already in recession. and the ride begins with nike running low and despite being in the top the bottom line,

denying that they are in the process of buying. >> and increasing stakes in the company. we will start with the market action trying to rebound after another losing day on wall street. we talked about those concerns. >> a recession is not in my case right now. the economy is strong. i am expecting it this year compared to what we had last year. we had maybe 1% or 2% for the gdp year. the slowdown we need to see in the economy to reduce the inflationary pressures that we have and bring inflation down. you ask in terms of probability, it's hard to

predict a recession. they occur for lots of different reasons. from my point of view, we have a path forward to bring inflation down and say that so we need to do and keep the economy growing. there can be shocks and events that happen that would knock us off track for that. >> he said 75 was exactly right and the debate will be between 50 and 75. >> i think he is right. i think about home say 72 hours and they say why do they just talk endlessly about the fed? why not talk about what's going on with 3m? you end up trying to say, look, we are about earnings per share which are really controlled like this is a great piece today about homebuilders. homebuilders are completely controlled by mortgage rates and much of the economy is controlled by mortgage rates. some by russia, some by china, but it is very small. i think is very smart and

saying, i favor tight, but not too tight. we are seeing the commodities rollover. a lot of the really important commodities have gone down a great deal. i think we have to be very careful, because there are some people who would say that it is winning. >> are you getting attachments? >> i happen to like jeremy siegel so much. i've always liked him. ico hear him 20 years ago and he is so smart. and his book is great, but i think that we need a shock. then let's take a look. >> you think that will be 75 in july? >> 75 is fine with me. then wait to see what happens,

because we really have to know what will occur in ukraine. the one that everyone is worried about is oil. we need -- china is coming back on line very fast. you think i was on that nike call. the nike call three months from now is going to some very different. >> you think will be different in a good way? >> yes. thing people selling nike are going to regret it. it is very rearview. >> let's pop ahead to nike because $.90 beats by 8. revenues up 10 to 12. >> they get a number with china being bad and with inventories all over the place, in boats. he is so good. the cfos a little bit more negative but i look at this and i think, they have the world cup. and of people remember the world cup is so great for them. and if they have china coming

back and going out again, and the minister of sport goes back to being the great pal, that is a, why did i start at 107? if china comes back, they are the right place. the one that is driving me crazy is the disney board meeting. >> it will be shut march 21. >> what has he been doing? >> ask a question. >> hiding in the back. >> right back there with pluto. >> speaking of china and jim is right about macau. >> we are going to continue to invest in that and ensure that we are building china for china with our tech stock and our hyper-local technology center

and ability to link and serve the chinese consumer. we have a medium and long-term view. coming out of this, the lockdown, we are seeing increased energy from the chinese consumer. >> that is with the transit times. they did see a little bit of improvement but they're not planning on significant improvement from there. >> i believe they're going to have an outstanding next three months in china. there are certain basketball players that they really love and they are ready. by starbucks. >> you like a nike and's starbucks? >> the chinese have been locked up and remember how pent-up we were to go places?

i think they're pent up to go out to exercise, they love nike. to go back to starbucks. it will be harder to get to macau, because there will be some limits. whatever's wrong about disney is what people want to talk about. maybe they had a bad month. remember the teapot, it was jerry or back? >> good call. >> they would hate the teapot right now. this disney's most hated stock in the world. that is what i think will be the best. >> c think the succession, profitability, do you think they end up getting some love here? >> i think that he is a parking guy. we are almost going through the problems.

i think that nobody wants to say it so i will say. he spent so much money on fox, he got to the balance she. it's going to be his legacy. sorry, i know that it is mean and i know people say his legacy was marvel, but there has been no given. they buried all to fox but within the different divisions. you can't even pull it out. i had it on and beloved all the acquisitions but this was the acquisition too far. they really was. and he paid the polish general and loss. >> to think china's opening more broadly? >> to think commodity and shipping rates are going to bottom as well? >> i want the shock because i think we will have a new leg up

in china and it's going to be gasoline. when you go over -- there is a piece very devastating about how poorly he's going to do. he did not sell anything in china. this was not like amazon saying here is your packages. remember you go to somebody's house, so i think that people had recognize that this was the total shutdown, not like us which was a soft shut down because you still get things from amazon or you can break the rules. >> it was tougher to break the rules there. >> it's a dictatorship. >> of course. >> i remember will my doctor daughter wanted to break the rules when she was living in madrid and there was a ,500 fine. you could never be found after you got it in china. this is a real opening and you do want to play them, you want

to be at starbucks, you want to be in disney, you might even want to be in fedex. >> credit suisse today named m and ups. >> they all work. but just go back to disney, a couple of days, i think the disney has changed. there to talk about a new theme park. is a go for the quarter of texas in colorado. >> in the southwestern united states? >> you cannot but in texas because of political reasons. and put it right over the border. i'm going for this. i'm solving the problem. and then he could talk with how they have a new park and then known will talk what disney+ or espn. we are going to talk about this. >> unit talk about leaving

florida? >> we stay in florida. we have the core doors between colorado and texas. we need warm weather, don't you love this? whatever. then we have the native american and indigenous, because you don't want to take the land, obviously. but there's a spot of land that i have located not far from our "key. we are going to put a new theme park and all were going to hear about his new theme park and bob chapek runs the theme park and they will say, what about disney+. >> theme park. it is so ideally situated it is scary. >> i can see some of the southwestern the maddox. you could do some of this. >> i have that planned. this is really good. but do not give away too much of my plan. when i spring this on the cfo, i think she's going to say, i like the numbers, i think that

cramer is right. >> you belong in business development. you're in the wrong gig right now. >> this is a power-play. anytime they mention something negative, all that bob chapek has to say is a land of enchantment. and then it's over. that he goes to 140 and everybody's happy. the teapot is happy. >> jerry orbach. >> they are all happy with the plan. >> we are going to watch disney and the other non-china specific names. we will talk robinhood as well. and then the statements that there are no active discussions. >> let's not confuse this with ptu fm myicrerocollege. >> absolutely. >> the futures are green. more "squawk on the street"

continues in a moment. hit the road in skechers.

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conversations. >> it is true that this company when it was lower, was trading below cash. that shouldn't happen. someone should buy them. i went to that presentation that the house issued this weekend and without a doubt, it dissembled in front of congress so f someone were to take a hard look at that, take a hard look at some of those text messages, text messages a light, we do not really have any controls but they're coming in. the reckless. the lack of controls. the lack of governance. we went yesterday, he's a nice guy. but he knew nothing. do have the picture of sam with

giselle? that is an important moment. >> there is a sense in the report -- thank you. there you go. you go over the report and say someone take these guys out. >> when you look at the interviews with juul last summer when he spelled out to the vision of the all-inclusive option. >> that is just a percentage and a lot of people who are too fractional and stuff. i think that vlad has the controls. you want the 20 million people. you really do.

i think it should be bought by someone. it's a great opportunity. if someone has the controls, these people are ready to go. every day they look at it and it is much ado about nothing. what i can back and say is wow. i wish that gorman would buy them. having a fantastic $18 billion buyback. but, robinhood should be bought. makes no sense because you can buy it and integrate it and have all those customers and they are all the right customers. >> i was going to say directionally, do think that a buyer should be the likes of a elon or legacy financial ? >> i think legacy of financial has to be more involved with

younger people. they passed up years ago and they should have bought it. i think goldman should buy robin hood. that will limit my chance of interviewing david solomon, which i would always like to get. but, i think they should buy it and then you a story about marcus. all these little things. you are in robinhood . >> i think that you run the risk of someone coming in and buying it before you get a chance. now this sam bankman-fried is an operator. had him on the show. he is j.p. morgan of that era. >> you got to love that. >> this is a conglomeration of young people want to be better

what they don't they've been chastened by how much money they have lost. at one point, they were really cheap followers of portnoy. but you have them. they are there to be had. there there all organized and thinking, why is goldman not buying? you just owned this tremendous group of people who will be around forever. it is fantastic. but bank of america has a lot of people. i want to paypal to buy them. look at the paypal stock. that is a pitiful helpless giant of a stock. >> we will talk about the banks and the buybacks. we will counowto ttdn he opening bell. snow is another upgrade. and tesla has another opening bell in 10 minutes.

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it is time right now for cramer's mad dash. >> at the beginning, people say jim, you focus on the fed. atlantic equities have been seeing a slowdown potential positive catalyst. saying maybe they could get their act together. they have been very bear. historically not wanting to buy these until the fed has said we are done. these have all been anticipated, but the textbook say they could fall and i think atlantic is jumping the gun. >> i don't think you could buy

these yet because you don't know if it will be 75 in the mortgage rates will go up so much that the applications yesterday, really dreadful for a lot of the country. i want to take the other side of this trade. i don't want people to buy. >> that is a different market. people get the word that may be that the are paying too much and pull back. homebuilders go full steam ahead. my god, that is horrible. they keep making homes. >> you will allow that the stocks before the industry bottoms. >> it has ever been in better shape and i know that we had stuart miller on who is such a great spokesperson. they are fantastic. i'm saying, don't jump the gun. there's going to be another leg

down if they go 75. >> this is too much of a job. >> i look at all of the cost. copper, wood. i just don't want the sticker shock. i think that this is the right way to approach things. there are always managers wake up and say the mortgage rates are off, have to sell. i've dealt with this and they are your enemy. >> i love it when you do that voice. >> he had me do that. i said come on. >> that was tough but i nailed you. it is true. >> they are going to be industrial they are so good. >> we will have the opening

bell a couple of minutes. you can catch us anytime and anywhere. listen to the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast. we are back right after this.

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inflation has been a bigger problem, but i think it has set us up for deflation. i've been listening to your program. i heard about being in recession now. we have had inventory, the increase of which i've never seen this larger my career and i've been around for 45 years. were talk about the best managed companies in the world like walmart and target. they know how to manage supply chain. if they have problems, then there are a lot more problems. >> a lot of it, there bargain. listen to what she said and right before what she said was admitting she was wrong about

something. you say, are you ever wrong and she said, yes, i was wrong on inflation. she was predicting deflation and that was as wrong as you could get. it really was incredibly wrong. >> >> you're going to see energy today and you're going to say, why is that, and the answers that people will be driving cars in china. that is it. i have been a bull on energy. now, will gm sell a lots of cars? >> mary bar has a lot of different electric cars. can you manage, can you bet that

jim has the five times earnings. i will say yes to that, too. >> before we get to more autos, here's the opening count. a couple things on cars. vw sees the gap closing with tesla this year. ford has the first recall on the tire pressure gauge. but then tesla. if you think china is going to give some tailwind, it's going to be a huge beneficiary. >> i agree with that. don't want to overstate it, but there many companies. nvidia, 500 million in china. maybe it is back. you have these companies with

the businesses that you felt this corridor would be negative that can now say, we did have that whole. and really, it's natural when they say we have the five $3 million hole and it's close. i don't know about vw. vw has been very bullish. they're going to say they did not sell a lot of stuff. now the one that some people say, jim, why are you not talking about qualcomm in the answers that i should be. qualcomm has a gigantic business in california but i like them because he tried to move away. he has industrial and auto. but it is nine times earnings for the premier setting. >> that is a huge automotive play. >> gigantic. >> that give you any information behind it.

>> those notes are short. >> versus ubs evidence lab which is a season of criminal minds. it is like an entire season. >> procedurals. >> you mentioned oil and driving and gasoline demand. do think that is what warren is thinking? >> it is 15% now. >> is the number 1 performing stock. the thinking was i would say, gesticulating initially. very smart and walking away. look at that. that is a winner. it's interesting, a very good. but he spoke at a conference and it was like mr. president,

good to see you. you want to play ball, we don't need to play ball. were not going to grow. we will grow 5%. we will make a fortune. we are not there for you. by the way, they would have been. there were a group of loyal people who were willing to sit down and say if you give us some pipes, we will drill in those areas. we need a little bit of give. we need a little bit more carbon. we will give you another million barrels and they want to be in the same room. so at the same time that they were meeting, secretary grantham, he was meeting with the window people. so he is like don quixote. he was dynamite. >> your point is that the president is literally tilting at windmills. >> he is the president of lamont chat.

>> macron on a hot mic telling biden that he doesn't think that the saudi's are going to lose production. >> the military, i know a lot of military guys in the pentagon. the pentagon guys are saying, so you you let them take ukraine , then they call you and say, we are taking mold over. we will use nukes. we will use tactical nukes and then they say, listen, you have 300,000 nato guys in poland. >> we like poland. when we took over warsaw, we let the home arnie. this is what they want to replay.

they want to replay world war ii. putin always felt that was never giving up the territory. >> this is the anniversary of the death of franz ferdinand. we're almost at $39.50. the back of lot of travel. some potential orders this yea . >> i got rid of boeing. made some money i lost some money. if they can make the plays. >> that is a 5% gain for boeing. jeffries argues that they are in the running for new orders. >> it is unbelievable on the demand. >> i have the spirit gion tonight. >> also getting interesting as they sweeten the bid again. this would raise the value to 3415. >> he will lose. ted christie will win.

i worked really hard on this and i think that they gave the speech when he came in. saying that he would not favor any deal where you need an investor to get it done. so the people who are representing jetblue, i urge them to go read the speech. if you read the speech, why you doing this? >> i'm going to handle this situation. i know that i am done spending all that. >> it is between 3:00 or 4:00. >> a some of these companies, if they listen to me, it is like multiple, but jetblue is making a big mistake. they keep doing this and they are going to lose.

they have said point blank, you cannot do it. so what are you thinking? it is one of the great associates, associate justices. >> we are coming down to the wire now. we need to create the fifth biggest carrier. nike has gone green. >> the fools like you sold it. that understand my plan for nike. >> as far as chips go, i know you have ramonda on last night. let's see what they said about the necessity of repatriating pitch chip production. >> we have the question of competitiveness with china. we have the key industries of

economic growth in america. they want to do all of that. we passed a law more than one and half years ago that is also through the house and what now we can get it through to the necessary steps to get a past. it is crazy. >> why is this happening? >> i think it is just sclerosis and the government. >> the broader point is that he does not think that a tie 1/china conflagration is in the future because of the reliance on the dollar. >> i think that the chinese want to test biden every day. the flyovers. i think that it is very clear that they could screw this up. they liked it so much that they put all this other stuff in it. and she says that has to be stripped out or otherwise it

will fail. pack l singer has said i can build in europe. i can put more in europe if i wanted to if we lose this, it is one of the most stupid things ever because about 12% is what we need here. >> so much of it is taiwan. taiwan is a missile throw away and we cannot let this continue. they talked about it multiple times and getting very sad about what has happened here. >> you have to listen to what he told jim. take a listen to that. >> these companies want to be in america. america still the best place in the world to do business. good talent, the customers are here. they want to be here. but mark my words, it if labor day comes and goes and this chips act is not passed by

congress, these companies will not wait and they will expand to other countries. these are once in a generation investments in this country will lose out. >> labor day. do think that his firm? >> yes. when you talk to ceos, they say the same thing. probably the best commerce secretary in history and really gets us. no one thought this would be a problem. honestly, remember, he's up there doing the state of the union. everyone is in favorite of this of this might fail? david ignatius, when my abs of favorite writers wrote a piece that was devastating saying that we are so dysfunctional that even one of the great plans which is to make ohio this center of technology could fail. it could fail.

and shame on us. >> you want to envision a world in which we are truly that constrained on the supply of chips. we cannot even imagine what life would be like, don't think. >> taiwan is one of the most important companies when it comes to our defense. every defense executive says this has to be done. but she said it is came over by labor day and if that's the case, all the great dreams about having ohio being the center, they will be gone. and when you talk to a lot of the ceos, had to go to the cfo council san francisco never want to so hopeful about moving to ohio that it is a great opportunity the has a really good labor force. cheap energy that is vetted and clean. they all want to go and they all want to be tied to this. europe has them. china has three, korea has one. i think that biden will say

let's get this done. he will say already did that said send it to me. but this to be a travesty. everyone in america that i know it is a divided country right now. but the thing they are not divided on is the need to protect the industry. that should be a rallying cry. >> the journal had a big piece about basf. about having to shut production because of energy and security in europe. the option of doing europe instead of u.s. and said a little weaker? >> it is a company town. it is way too big a town for the germans to just forget. it is where all of the chemicals are. >> were talking in terms of chips. >> i think that if you give the chip companies enough money, they will come.

i know they have the chemical gadgets to make it happen. and i know that pat gelsinger is a great american who is committed to ohio. he has made this is life's work. he did say that we know that the president said that he had a bad year. so trying to work out where he is with the avalanche to figure out. >> where if it's in. the playoffs. i wish, by the way, can i say they wish that all these people is stop invoking god or at least figure out where god is in the standing? >> secularism has taken a hit. >> yes, it has. you can kneel in the middle of

the field and that's fine. we pray before every win and every game and i'd have to say the whole prayer, but i like inclusion, but we have a real problem here. it is not ordained. the companies, we will get the research. the research is willing to go there. and when you go over by the way, is just a factory. you have to put the hairnet on. and i think any stop wasting our time? you go in. >> would you stop. i went to one on saturday in israel. i was only when there because it runs on the machine and i have the hairnet on. but what was interesting is that it is just equipment. >> let's put it there. the

country, i don't know they say write your congressperson. but this is just, when i had power on, every one thought it was a done deal. it just has to happen. >> there is still time. >> overall, a 1% here on the dow as we are off the initial high. >> so we started june with 4000 as sort of the floor for the s&p 500 and now 4000 is a bit of the ceiling. this little bit of resistance. were not far, only about 60 points. they are leaving again. that is debatable whether we want to see that.

consumer discretionary there. we see travel stocks and the casinos are bouncing as well. healthcare has had a terrific run. mentioned yesterday that big pharma was basically the only group at a 52-week high up again today. a very good start overall. look at the energy starts. is a good news or bad news that commodity stocks are leading the market again. energy got clobbered last week. now they are rallying again today. the keep peace is commodities are proxies for inflation. if they keep rallying, and is a sign that there are inflation concerns out there. crude was down dramatically. 15%, 16%, but to rally two days in a row. this is the one i watch, this is an aggregate of several base metal commodities. that has also been coming off of the lows in the last couple of days. you want to watch that as proxy

inflation. nike is not really doing much, it is done down fractionally. i know that very clear exposure to china so there are issues here. most companies are going forward. so they talked about inventory tieups in china and higher freight and inventory costs. these are gross margins down 80 basis points. we want look at the operating margins. this will be a problem for the second quarter were we had a problem that the margins had dramatically expanded and they are charging to shrink back again. the historic highs as the companies essentially were able to do really well post-covid. now we are starting to shrink back again. i think what you are seeing here is that you will see the second quarter will have 11 handle in front of it. remember what happened here, s p profit margins hit a peak in

2021 come slowly declining. what happened during covid? market expanded dramatically. companies cut back on labor and travel. in realistic him these were technology to increase efficiency. when the revenues rebounded, it went to the bottom line. a lot of companies were coming out saying this is going to change a bit here. saying we are going to be declining this year. is there a recession or not? if there is, then they say it will be down 70 basis points. your talk about the 10% range for operating margins. again, the question is, what side are you on the recession versus no recession debate. but they are coalescing around the fact that margins will be lower. >> one of the things that we are watching. >> you can get in on the

investment. find out more on cnbc.com or use the qr code on your screen. will take you right there. we mentioned the opening of china as it continues there. there's a 10 year close to 326 s&p, now up 7.5% from the june close low. we're back in a moment

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the dow is up 350. we're back in a moment

jim, what's on mad tonight >> aws, and spirit, on the eve

of their vote. i'm signing up for disney, new mexico, why not get these things done >> you wanted a side by side i think we have it that is you in college >> oh, my god. i was listening to the late great ted kennedy, you know, i had game then. let me tell you. i had game we won't define what game means, but i had it. see you at 6:00. we will stay on top this market rally this morning don't go anywhere.

good tuesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with mike santoli. david faber has the morning off. morgan brennan is on maternity leave. trying to sustain a 1% bounce here a busy morning with wholesale

inventories. consumer confidence is up. rick santelli. >> sometimes the numbers aren't as fast as they used to be pre-covid. our jewel read, 98.7 we were expecting a number closer to 100, last look from 106.4, down to 103.2, but 97.7, the weakest since february 2021, it's a far cry from the all-time low of 95. the university of michigan sentiment is at an all-time 44-year low, and this is not and for richmond fed manufacturing for the month of june, this is a big miss expecting minus seven, but it's minus 19

minus 19 is the lowest level since may of 2020, so very, very early covid. not a good sign. by the way, i missed expectations on the conference board, because i didn't see it it just flew across the wires at 66.4, a huge drove from the revised 73.7 from may. carl, mike, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers, nikes slumping after beating estimates. china lockdowns weighing on the quarter there for nike you see the shares down 2.4% robinhood shares skyrocketing yet on rumors of a buyout, giving back the gains after the cryptoexchanges said no active talks have taken place. occidental heading higher

after berkshire hathaway increasing its stake this morning a cnbc exclusive. steve liesman has the highlights >> joining others on the fed saying he's not anticipating a u.s. recession, even though he sees growth slowing, and the fed hiking rates significantly. >> recession is not my base case right now. you know, clearly financial conditions have tightened, and i'm expecting growth to slow this year quite a bit relative to what we had last year, and probably slow to 1% to 1.5% per year it's not a recession, it's a slowdown. >> seeing the rate rising to just over 4%, which still is a historic low this no-recession forecast from the fed has skeptics on wall

street williams backing up, though, the currents market pricing, which sees the fed raising rates to nearly 4% next year. >> i think it's a perfectly reasonable projection right now. the thing i have greater certainly about is we definitely need the funds rate up by later this year. next year, exactly where we need to be, could depend on the data. 34. >> the new york fed, as you may know, is in charge of moderating markets. williams said so far he's not seen any make market disruptions from the process, as has occurred in other such effort, but these are early days for winding down the balance sheets, kind of up, kind of down >> now, when you say he's more or less back to mark projections, are we still in terms of the markets saying

we're getting to 4%? >> i went away for a couple days on vacation, we went down, went high, that chart in the back, i think i prematter it anticipating santoli's question there. we are at 3.8 now for april of 2023 we have been as high as 4.08 the back end of this curve is the most volatile part that idea of between 3.5 and 4% on the april, may, 2023 contract has been pretty steady. >> and then backing off. >> that's the question, the fed starts to see a recession, starts to cut already? or is that,u.s. backing off, because it went down too far the idea that the market is clearly pricing in a rate cut at the end of the process is somebody says, hey, that's a recession price there. >> it doesn't sound like much regret there from the 75 >> no, williams was very, very

firm about the 75, the needing to get there very fast williams saying we need to get to where we are going in a very, very rapid rate. just because we're kind of consumed with the historical precedent here of soft landings and how rare they were, the fed cut in '95 without a recession the gdp stalled. so it's not as if the market is projecting -- >> fair enough, fair enough. and also, you add to that folks lie citigroup saying 60% probability. this is a tricky thing the question i have is -- i did a report a month or so ago, saying the fed was not being very affirmative or confident that there wouldn't be a recession. i'm wondering if we're getting more confidence from the fed that we could avoid this and you guys would know this better than i would, if the

market is embracing the idea that maybe we skirt this restegs a little more confidently. i noticed the desk note saying bullard tomorrow, i think? >> yes. >> is he the ax? do we pay more attention than to others >> i have a rhyme, the dissenter can lead the way or lead you astray he h he's -- bullard's call, i think we'll go back and have a good time taking apart this period of time when the fed kept doing qe, when it knew it should be fighting inflation, raising rates and stopping it. on the other side of it, we have done qt and not had a big market blowup is a good thing, knock on wood. >> we'll talk soon thanks, steve. joining us this morning is

charles schwab jeffrey kl kleintopf, jeff, i've start with you. et richmond numbers are not good worries about earnings season. how much of this recent bounce do you think is in fact warranted? >> i think this bounce is what you talked about, the potential for rate cuts a little over a year from now, as maybe a threat of recession has now passed. i think the odds do favor a recession. that's what we believe here at schwab the thing is that a -- whatever led in the last cycle tends to be a laggard in the next i think we're seeing a shift towards international and value, i actually call it a shark attack the last time we saw the jaws this wide was back at the end of the late '80s when international

and value stocks outperformed. now we're seeing the reversal. u.s. tech has led the way. we're seeing the liquidity being drained from the ocean appeared now we're seeing the jawing begin to close not only may it help offset some of the down side here, it maybe position you well for the recovery that's to come. >> that's interesting. i know your title halls the words "multiasset. if jeff is right about international, is that more about asia pacific >> i great on his assessment that the international is leading this time around, and while the areas are favored for a few weeks now is china, it's steadily up almost 16% from the lows, and that's why -- but from

a multiasset perspective, it's also important to keep an eye on the u.s. rates market and the volatility the stabilitization we have seen in the last two, three weeks is very often driven by the stability in rates and the stability in oil prices. so that's two areas we're keel a closite on what happens there will likely have a bearing on the other classes across the board. >> you think the market seems to have it correct when it has rates and oil prices calming down it would seem as if there's some comfort growing, perhaps, that maybe we have seen the worst of the inflation momentum, and the fed might actually have an ability to restrain it >> that's right, mike. i think that's very much the key question we have seen rising as high as 4% on the terminal rate as you

guys were just discussing, and that's driven some discomfort that maybe broadly the markets are comfortable with this level of interest rates. generally no one would have imagined the term nat rate of 4%, but at this point, 3.75, 4, all of that is being digested by the market pretty easily, and oil prices are no longer going up they haven't fallen down a lot they're down ar 109 or something like that, and inflation expectations are tied closely to what happens with oil prices as long as we see stability in oil prices, there is a broader comfort level, even if we see 75 basis points hike in july, even if we see rates go up to 3% by the end of the year, the economy

is strong enough to handle that level of rates rise, and that level of price inflation >> jeff, as you think about upcoming catalysts, pc deflator thursday will definitely one way or another feed the debate about whether peak inflation is here i just wonder, how powerful do you think those could be >> i think they're important remember, what we saw with, and part of what has driven this recent rally is the final decline in the final reading, expectations coming down from 3.1 to 3.3 they're a process. we're starting to see a peak in goods prices, like we saw in nike and including some of the tech space as well, but that's not yet filtered into service prices or labor prices, so we see this

bounce look here in terms of high prices until we get later in the fall, and some of the services and labor prices fall it can't be a while unwe see the -- >> that's a good point, jeff and anwiti, good to see you both thanks. >> good to see you. >> thanks. as higher transportation costs, longer shipping times and china lockdowns continue to weigh on profits, the stock is down about 35% year to date. here with the outlook for the retailer, here's jay sewell, who has a buy rating on the stock. jay, good morning. a bit of a noisy quarter they are foreseeing a little more persistent margin pressure perhaps embedded in their guidance

i guess the question is, does the guidance seem realistic, and therefore, is the stock correctly priced for it? >> i think we think the guidance is beatable. it has a potential scenario, and also assumes a slow recovery in china. we think the recovery in china can actually be better >> you know, the company was going up in the main quarter again the reopening year-over-year quarter in 2021 it was a massive sales gain. direct to consumer doing incredibly well. where does it leave the growth pace at this point it seems a lot of confuse. a lot of the premium has come out of the stock >> yeah, i think there's a lot of confusion about china and about momentum what i think is interest is about 60% of their business in

china impacted by -- so that means 40% was not impacted sort of back into the growth rate it shows -- so that's an indicator to me that the underlying momentum is actually strong, and has worked with some of these really strong growth, and probably going to surprise people at how good the securities growth really is. >> jay, does that seem athletic shoes, nikes branded clothing, things like that, are not in that kind of goods basket that is, you know, consumers kind of binged on and pulled forward demand for maybe will not have as much appear tide for? >> i think working out, health and wellness are good trends,

maybe they're still working out. so we think that tremendous is going to be pretty strong. >> we've seen a bit of improve they ports, but at this point in time we're not sigh a transit time at fiscal 23. i would assume you would hope to hear more optimism about that. >> yeah, you know, i think there's a difference between transit times. >> now the goods are falling at a -- so what we're hearing is they're getting goods now, but they weren't getting them last year it's taking longer, but now the

retailers are getting restocked are, so they'll have good inventory for back to school yeah, it's taking longer, but we expect growth for nike. >> obviously that is a net positive jay, thanks a lot. appreciate the time. mike, thank you. as we go to break, as we want china we're going to break down what it means check out revlon we have the latest on the latest meme stock and then finally the ceo of global foundries is here to discuss.

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foundries. tom caufield thank thank you for being here. >> i'm more optimistic than not. i think it's important to act now, but i agree with her, if it doesn't get down by labor day, it probably doesn't get down for another year we have seen over the last three years, talking about creating better manufacturing capability in this country, the rest of the world has invested more thanes invested in the u.s., because they've had the incentives and the right investments to make that capacity happen we need to do that here in the u.s. >> we spent a fair amount of time talking about -- and this

fall, and for the next several winters. does that gift the u.s. more leverage for those producers who might think they said to build something in out-of-the- -- it's not just the coinvestments. it's in the operating costs, so i think this is the moment for the u.s. it's been debated since 2019 we need to start creating an acceleration of the capacity in the u.s. gf will continue to build in the global footprint what is the difference between having chips built or not for gf it's for us to accelerate or investments in the u.s. versus the rest of the world. >> are there substantive objectives or disagreements about the provisions of the act at this point, or is it your read of maybe not being fast tracked and made a priority?

>> first of all, that's a great question i don't think anybody disagrees that funding this is is important. it's some of the other items that get dragged in. so the cleaner they can make this bill, the more likely it is that it will pass. what is your best guess as to whether it happens by lake day, as it seems like that's the key date. >> so labor date is probably the latest it could be if it doesn't get done before congress has a recess in august, i don't think labor day happens, either, but that's just my view. i'm an optimist by nature, but at the end of the day, the people who make these calls,

have to close down their differences and act. we can't delay any longer. >> are industry players actively against what american like would be like if that happened >> look, i think what's happened over the last two years we had a technology kind of hitten from the general populace all of a sudden you can't buy automobiles or appliances. there's long lead times we all become very aware and, you know, 70% of all manufacturing in taiwan, for example, it starts to create a different left of awareness and concern. the very nature of gf is we

operate on free -- three continents we have a thoughtful supply chain, and we can continue to add to this capacity that offsets some of this, you know, singed source of failure risks but your point is the chip shortage, as we've come to call it, appeared to what could be, has been just a taste? >> oh, you know, if we lose production from taiwan, it would be a huge impact to the global economy. >> tom, we've been so focused for a couple years now on summer interruption, shortages in areas of semiconductors. what about the demand side now, as everyone is talking about slowdown, maybe some supply catching up? what's your read on the current balance there? >> yeah, look, i think there's a tactical dimension and strategic dimension. let me start with the strategic.

independent of the macroissues were facing right now, in the lengths and time to get things corrected, the longer-term view, this industry will double in the next 10 to 15 years. the demand we see now in our earnings call, a couple weeks ago about we're seeing some softening in handsets and pcs, we started with demand well above our ability to support, and so a bit of this softening you're seeing now is allowing us to remix our supply to customers we were woefully undersupporting. i think the biggest things for us as an interest is not let these macro event to -- by creating the capacity. the industry and consumers, and, you know what the economy needs. >> finally, tom, is there anything that the proponents of

the act aren't doing at this point that they should be doing? >> i thinkit's being pragmatic on limiting the amount of things that get put into the bill, so it's easier to pass the part that everybody agrees on i think you're starting to see that play out in washington, as we speak. >> we're going to track it all summer long. tom, appreciate the guidance as always i look forward to next time. thank you. >> thanks for having me. chinese tech stocks continues their ride higher today. is there more room to run? we'll discuss that stay with us

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good morning here's your cnbc news update at this hour. the house committee investigating the january 6th attack on the capitol is planning to hold its 1:00 p.m. hearing. the hearing was not previously

scheduled. homeland security secretary alejandro mayorka is vowing to hose those responsible for the deaths in san antonio they're responsible for what happens to be the deadliest human smuggling case >> saying that -- three boxes per transaction. it wants to avoid a shortage following the u.s. supreme court's decision overturning roe versus wade. in a statement, the company said it has ample supplies of the product. a leading launch in space has successfully launched a test launch it happened around 6:00 a.m. eastern time today back to you, mike. kristina, thank you.

seema mody has the breakdown for you. >> china cutting its quarantine for overseas travelers is seen as a big move for the country they have been on a tear up about 17% on pace for its best month sin june of 2020 court to -- in addition to loosening reindustry, strict profits fell less than make. the central bank governor also signaling a focus on boosting credit growth. alibaba, up 25% this month, the first positive month in four, currently has 86% buy ratings on the street, with an average

price, that's 27% implied return credit suisse writing that we still like alibaba on its valuation and improve profitability. wen event that investors will be watching is president xi's visit to hong kong, where the rumor is he could create a pathway for secondary listing like alibaba into the stock knecht. while the worst is over narrative, it is gaining momentum -- joining us is ben heartburg. good among obviously the market is taking it as good news, getting some traction in recent weeks was it that long ago that -- macro

concerns, so how does it look as continues opportunities to invest in tech in china? i have to say that china has the greatest opportunity for immediate up side. as we've said all along, most of the pressure that was weighing down the chinese market over the last few months was largely self-imposed business wasn't happen that's why i say the q2 numbers would be so challenged so, i think these changes that are taking place will steady investor nerves, and hopefully drive really significant gains over the next couple months no

doubt it has a lot of snap back potential. the stocks are up huge, but also if you look at the proxies to the chinese tech stocks, they're still down by half they're really not interested in having their companies become global platforms. most of their caps are made up of eventual capital firming

as china was building, not only national champions, but also companies that can go global, like a tiktok or shi a n. we've sat here and wondered why they put such stringent lockdowns in, and for a regime that you point out, ties its fortunes to economic betterment, do you see any dissonance in there? >> certainly not tied to economics, and i think not much of it is actually tied to health care policy. certainly there was a position taken early on, it was very challenging to walk back from that, with such strength of quarantine policies, why they're

so overly sensitive to one outbreak in a city that shuts down and forces mass testing i think that this was also part of just building a perception that the govern has control, and also, you know, a lot of face saving, so the fact that foreign were not imported is a result of a chinese belief that they should be able to solve this with internally developed medicines, as they try to wean themselves off of eforeign, especially western, vaccines >> the final day of the g7 is said to be fox cussed on klein, on the potential united confrontation in a sense with china out there, expressings disappointment about china's role in not condemning russia's

invasion of ukraine. how does this play into the investment case and the sense that the chinese economy is not going to be as open as we had gotten used to in, say, the prior decade >> i think opening up is still there, and certainly for industries that are not nationally sensitive, they will continue to embrace fdi. the question is whether western countries want to invest overall, though, china remains open for business. there's certainly a large swath of the world that embraces very much doing business with china, specifically southeast asia.

so i think we have skated dating back to several years ago those are the markets they should be targ targeting. >> are those the areas you continue to see as most right for the further investment what parts of chinese industry now seen maybe underexploited, may be a good bet for the future >> we certainly have reach a saturation level, a crystallization of some of the lower hanging fruit markets in sectors like e-commerce, food delivery, ridehailing, so just as in the united states, the next evolution is really taking place more in the core technology space and health care we in the last months are investing in new drug development using a.i., the companies that are building the first nuclear reactor in china, chip19th businesses, so this is

part of a natural evolution less of a me-too or copycat of western models. >> ben, thank you very much. appreciate you running through that view with us. thank you. still to come this morning, revlon shares plummeting double ditsgi we'll find out why, after the break, as the dow is up 58 if you have this... and you get this... you could end up with this...

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revlon shares are having an incredibly volatile month. retail investors piling in and selling off what some are calling the next hertz robert frank giantjoins us to explain. >> they're still way above the $1 trading range when the company announce chapter 11 bankruptcy on june 16th. retail investors are betting this is the next hertz, that was

sold out of bankruptcy last year, generating a huge windfall for many retail investors. revlon is very different the business han declining for years, as it missed the entire social media makeup trend. its debt has grown to over $3.5 billion, more than ten times the current market cap you look at the bonds, they're trading way below par. other trading around 13 krechbts on the dollar. that all means that bond vettors think there's reference chance of being paid in full. retail visitors have succeeding, though, in boosting ronald pearlman's wealth. his net worth growing about $250 million with this share increase, but bankruptcy experts

say he's likely to get wiped out in any bankruptcy, just because of the size of the bet they're still calling on investors to squeeze the shorts and buy more this stock seems headed back down. >> robert, it's a good reality check in terms of the capital structure and all the other embedments there it does seem another reinforcing lesson of what makes a meme stock. in theory you need a recognizable consumer name that people have summer familiarity with very hazard out to short the stock, and bankruptcy, in some kind of fight, with a big story line that develops out of it >> you're right, there is far less than hurts, because perelman owns 89%, so few shares

outstanding, you couldn't borrow the shares, couldn't short it. those short it kind of had to go out, so a lot of it was function of supply and demand we're seeing that fall apart very quickly here. >> what a history, robert. thanks for helping us out with it this morning. coming up though, on "techcheck" we'll speak with sam lussen, and shares still sit almost 90% off the 52-week highs. we're back in a couple minutes snooismt trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.

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sotay with us.

bitcoin on pace for one of

its percentt months on record as investors eye more regulation against. gensler is here on "squawk on the street" just yesterday listen to what he has to say. >> right now you have hundreds if not thousands of these crypto tokens that have the basic attributes of raising money from the public and having a group of entrepreneurs you might have on your show say come hither, we have a good idea for you and that's okay in america if you comply with the laws and we got, unfortunately, a lot of projects that are non-compliant. >> that's where we'll start with silver bank ceo alan lane. gensler talking act this wide vaesht variety of tokens, bitcoin transacting with some degree to your platform largely.

how does that bear on what you do, this idea that there have been scrutiny on everything that's grown up around this whole microeconomy >> yes, great question i appreciate the opportunity to be with you this morning you know, we at safl intergate has been banking this ecosystem a little over 18 years when we started, it was bitcoin, only a lot of other tokens didn't exist. there was white papers out there. it was a bitcoin industry. it's very interesting to hear from the sec that still bitcoin is different from everything else out there and as a regulated financial institution, silvergate complies, obviously, with all of the federal and state regulations and we essentially need our customers we require them to comply as well so we only bank institutions who are also serious about

regulations, though, ironically, we absolutely welcome this >> presumably, some of your borrowers maybe are also involved or connected in some way to those people doing some things to centralize finance, maybe this deal i imagine stress in one part of the system might come back to korea it some credit issues. have you seen anything like that >> sure. so, we have absolutely seen no credit issues at silvergate. that is because we only lend against bitcoin. bitcoin is essentially as i just mentioned, different than anything else. it has the longest track record. it's been operating uninterrupted with 100% uptime since 2013 and it is the only collateral that we're comfortable lending against in this ecosystem and because we are also over collateralized, when there is a lot of

dislocation in volatility in this market, we have the ability through our zen platform, which operates 24/7 and allows our customers to draw on their lines of credit against their bitcoin, but also mpay down their lines and pledge additional bitcoin collateral 24 hours, seven days a week i completely acknowledge the volatility and credit issues left handing unsecured, silvergate is a secured learned and it's bitcoin only. >> in your view, this whole thing reduces back down to bitcoin where it was has all of this web point 3 rhetoric overblown is that going to get swept away? >> yeah, that's a little above my pay grade we focus on what we understand and on the risks that we believe we understand and know how to mitigate and that's why a lot of that

other stuff in crypto is a technology experiment and until it gets to the same level of you know at that bitcoin has succeeded, we'll only stand back and provide positive services to those companies. >> alan, appreciate the time, thank you very much. all right. that will do it for "squawk in the street" in morning tech check starts right now. >> good tuesday morning, for today, snow keeps accumulating an avalanche may upgrade snowflake. valuations continue to plummet, who are the next m afternoon a targets? we will break down the online retail space on sale is robinhood stock up 14 yesterday?