going to be strong tomorrow, based on the numbers i think a 15.4% total revenue. and again, price mix of 12%. let's see what it does to overall demand and commentary after that michael far. >> i like that donaldson companies is not a well known one but growing earnings at 10%. i think it's a buy on this pullback >> i'll see you tonight. "the exchange" starts right now. thank you very much, melissa. hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." cathy woods says the u.s. is already in recession but fed official says recession isn't the base case. who's right and how do you invest with so much economic uncertainty? and remember the pandemic boom company as like war b parker rushing to go public but now they've plunged 70% this

year and they're not the only ones could a white knight swoop in. and we've got bed, bath, with skre general mills. we'll give you the action, story and trade on all three but first the markets have been moving lower this afternoon, bob. >> and weo have a little bit of a problem with the weak economic numbers we saw today take a look at the s&p 500 all 11 sectors were positive at the open then we got the economic numbers. and i'm talking about the consumer confidence numbers. the lowest since february 2021 with some evidence that slowing consumer demand, with then we had the richmond fed report. well below expectations. you add it up, markets drifted lower throughout the day really the same story at the nasdaq semiconductors started strong.

advanced micro, nvidia there's your two market leaders. amazon and alphabet started positive and moves lower good news or bad news that oil has been up? the bulls want to be inflation is moderated to do that, it's a proxy for inflation. but oil's been moving up the last couple of days and so have base metal prices like copper as well when they were moving down last week. you see oil stocks doing quite well today travel and leisure stronger today. we got good news out of china. covid restrictions are lifting a bit. kelly, i think the big problem is that old stagilation story. high inflation and low or negative economic growth the economic reports, particular laethe consumer confidence

number, plays into the stag flagds theme i think that's a major reason why we're weaker today >> that data as the u.s. may already experience a couple of quarters to start the year does it mean we're in a recession? cathy wood and new york fed president weighing in, both on "squawk box. >> we think a really big problem is inventory its the likes of which i've never seen this large in my career and i've been around 45 years. >> i think the economy is strong clearly financial conditions have tightened i'm expecting growth to slow quite a bit this year, relative to last year 1 to 1.5% gdp growth. for it's a slow down we need to see in the economy. >> joining me now his 2 cents is

a man who's been highly tracking the spending habits of the consumer what do you sayb, bill i assume you don't think we're in a recession the consumer confidence numbers have been pretty awful >> we're in a bit of a relay race in the economy where the millenniumials have entered the land of necessity spending and discretionary spending is being reduced substantially boy having to become mature adults and do things that -- you got to pay those bills every month? we don't have their income when they were boiing apple devices and chipotle burritos like they were six or seven years ago. we're in the transition. don't cry for us argentina there's 91 millennials and net the next five to ten years, the

economy will be strong but that won't be ea positive for equity valuation. >> and explains why there's so much upward pressure now, here's -- you know i'm going to ask you about the home builders i think i saw the other day, one of them was trading 2.5 times forward earnings estimates you still own those down 40% this year. as a discipline, how willing are you to toreturn enough to you that it was twhurgt wait in the meantime >> we started with a dramaticly lower price os the only way to cure the problem is build a lot more homes. we are not anymore well built than we were two years ago in fact, the supply chain issues cause horton and lamar to slow the pace last year you had a guy on last week ofrom

the harvard houdsing studies he said this is the most houses we built in 15 years from 2007 to 2018, it was the biggest housing depression since the 1930s. it's like buffett says when you run the hurdles, you want a low bar we're at about 700 or 650 right now. and that's all in front of us. so, think of it like owning a private business they're so worried about a recession. would you adivorce your spouse if he loved you 3% less? i don't think so >> by the a, i know he's a hero of yours and his firm seems to have followed you into a lot of these trades, like oxy -when we start to see signs maybe the fed is going to pull in the reigns on the inflation we've been seeing, do you feel

like it's time to sell the energy names and if not, why? and how long are you going to hold on to them? >> buffett is doing his buying right now. so, he's just getting going. jerry jones said we're in the first quarter on natural gas and harold ham is trying to steal the rest of the company away from us minority shareholders because he doesn't think he's being treated well in the stock market he thinks it's worth 30 or $40 more a share than he's trading at >> so, you're sticking with energy, with the home builders i mean, these are classic value plais. as i recall, there were a couple of names you like. they had big news you like obviously on capitol return. they're very cheaply valued. how long are we going to wait

for them to start acting strongly >> when you're a stock picker, you don't have anything else left to do the fact of the matter is worried about bank of america or j.p. morguon for the reasons they should be worried about them and they are for the resession worry. off and on over the next ten yours, the economy is relatively strong because 90 million people are in the primary household formation in the necessity spending years but they have huge financial advisor obligations and things that they're doing that people are rocking and rolling for seven or eight years the fangs went up every year, interest rates went down asset allocation was a dream and now it's a nightmare and it's going to be a nightmare probably another couple of years. so, weeding out that side, their commercial bank is going to do

well on both sides and it will get more difficult on the financial advisor side >> would you agreement that as the fed backs off money creation, real money creation on the lending side is pick up? is that a positive diatomy and one they should bet on seeing strong returns >> the millennials waited seven years later in life to leverage up in necessity and that's going to happen the next three or four years regardless of what fed policy is. >> the millennial whisperer. always a pleasure. thank you for your time. fwo guggenheim with his take on the recession debate m meantime, a seven-year auction just happened top of the hour. rick, what happened? >> yes, another one. this is the last of 133 billion

in supply. i gave it a "d." maybe i was being generouses all that recession talk seems to have totally dry oed up. although one would think by ob loo at some of the data this morning, that it would resurge equity markets have to be down 3 or 400 look at the seven year it popped and now it's coming right back down. recession verses try to pick a bottom and interest rates. i gave it a d plus for good reasons. the interest market was trading around three and a quarter first. 70 billion was 3.28. so, basically e, almost a three basis point tail, not good you don't want a higher yield that's always a lower price. and if i'm the government selling we don't want lower price. and here's one interesting fiche

rb dealer community took 6.4% the lowest percentage since 2009 that's a good thing. today they had to take triple the amount, 17.7%. that almost sums it up in one sentence as far as for the marketplace, means pay closer attention to the data points because it doesn't seem like they're taking a turn to the upside >> you think that would be a help but not today maybe we can blame that hawkish talk out of the ashes cb fwrrls and the horse race is back across the housing market just as rates took a breather in terms of mortgage rates that could be headed back up again. inching back towards 6%. diana. >> that's right, kelly mortgage rates retreat oed but then they called right back around on friday and bumping

back up against it going back to april, it headed over 5%, retreated in may and surged above 6% in june. that's after the 75-basis point in the federal funds rate. and while mortgage rates don't follow that exactly, they're influenced by it and they follow the yield on the 10-year treasury last week, with yields came down and rates followed with the 30-year fix back below 6%. now 5.95% again today. this morning we got the first hint home prices may be starting to cool. the national home price index still up about 20% but the annual gain was slightly lower than in march. that's the first time we've seen it since november. given rates just crossed over

the 5% line, all indications is it will cool, especially since inventory for houses is up 21% from a year ago. that according to realtor.com. we're seeing more price drops to sellers. >> just like we saw last time, that will actually spur more activity to get ahead of it. but we'll see. thank you for now. we've got a market slash on qualcomm an analyst tweet that apple may have nailed in the development ofiths own 5g modem chip and likely to continue using qualcomm steve covac is here with more on the fallout. obviously a big loss, a big embarrassesment. >> back in 2019, the two companies settled their disputes

qualcomm use these 5g modems the they settled in the meantime, they bought intel's modem business, set up a shop in qualcomm's backyard, saying they're if we tag develop their own 5g modem and it's pretty accurate when it come toads future apple products. are they going to be ready in 2024 to put their own ohome grown 5g modem >> and apple had high-profile success with replacing intel chips in some of the laptops and desk tops. m 1 chip, m 2 chips. rave reviews they run more coolly what would it tell us if they're having more of a problem replacing the qualcomm chips >> they've been doing it way longer than apple. that's why apple was using some of the products in their phones

but they weren't performing as well so, apple said we're going to see if we can improve it but at the end of the day, they have to use what works the best. if that means qualcomm in 2024, that's what they're going to do. >> if they plucked from that company. intel itself gave up why is it such a challenge if neither intel nor apple can crack it >> exactly and in 2019, when the agreement between the two companies, qualcomm shares went up quite a bit. they're uniquely positioned to be the only company that can do that right now apple is hoping they can at least match them and if this report is true, it's

good news for qualcomm don't you love 5g history? >> i do now. coming up the pro shares etf is up 1% in june, which remarkable because it's going to snap a losing streak. we'll name names that could be plucked from the clearance rack. and paycheck on pace for the worst quarter since the pandemic we've got the good, bad and the ugly in today's earnings exchange and here's a look at oil with wti nearing $110 a barrel. already up 4% since yesterday. did you know your health has more to do with your zip code than your genetic code? that doesn't seem fair. we agree. but where you live determines access to doctors, green spaces and fresh food.

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welcome back consumers went on an online spending spree and traders snapped up the stock and it's shifting back to dining and commerce and shares are getting crush pd friendship look at allberg's

warby parker is now a $12.50 stock, down 76%. and stitch fix trading at about 5 bucks is down 91%. hit a fresh 52-week low. the stock was above $100 last january. with cratering valuations is it due for a round of deal breaking how do you thing the story plays out? >> remember, this retail may be an asset like business but it's got low barriers and it really benefitted from all the money the government put out there the consumer and the market share doubled for online over the time period. so, they were really benefit on top of that, money is free. now all of that has changed. i realize i said they've been cut in half in valuations.

a lot have been cut by 75 or 90% on valuation >> and i was going to say the lack of noise around them is quite telling. a single had made a couple of months ago, which is, is the business model broken? for instance a stronger business model. what kind of pivot should we expect to osee it doesn't look like there's a lot of scooters bidding. >> there's never been a lot of profit made in this area when you look at small players. yeah, there's great numbers like warby parker and ever lane tommy john and all of that you had a good run too but it wasn't driven by profitability.

and money a was cheap. so, that all worked. now awe go maybe it matters if you make money ea lot and what profitability looks like a lot of these guys started at d.c. only. but warby parker do almost all of their business in the stores. they really support it with the online presence. and that's true to o shouldn't tommy john be one business they've barely scratched the surface on market shares it's not like it would be a problem and they eliminate a lot of overheads and be stronger they may want poobe stronger and easier finance going forward that could be true for adore me. and maybe they'd be a stronger business together. we may also see some of the big guys step in

remember when walmart bought [ inaudible ]? >> yes but did that go well for them? i love the irony of how the tables have turned the sexiness of all the start ups and now we're looking to suitors as maybe walmart and macy's can come to the rescue. it's very interesting >> none of it have gone well so far. but we know they need these brands wouldn't macy's love to own the brand? what about cvh i mean, i can see why they want them and if you buy them at 50% off, don't they have to say if there's ever a time, now is the time >> are these can companies

profitable enough? pressure from wall street for stock performance and all the rest of it, are they going to turn and say now is the time to bolt on what still may be an over valued but cool start up. they have a lot of equity brand value. but can the suitors afford to take that risk on? >> what if you're amazon you could buy all of these and it wouldn't make a blip. you get these great brands, the growth you wanted and pay for it if you were amazon they would be willing to buy some of the brands they've been building private brands they're the kind of company that can do this and never bat an eye. walmart could do this too. it would never hurt their bottom line you have to believe in the future if these equities brands are

worth something and build traffic to your site, that's worth something if you're amazon or what walmart. >> it's very interesting now we know at least some of the chess pieces to watch, shall we say. jan on e commerce. coming up the dollar is nearing the highest level against japanese yen in more than two decades. as japan central bank keeps the monetary policy. we'll look into what's driving the decision ahead and ramifications for the global market retail investors betting revlon will be rescued. are they right and as we head to break, two-thirds of the names in red as we're near session lows with the dow down snicalyigfint nike, salesforce and home depot are your biggest laggards. we're back in a moment strength. reduces inflammation.

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welcome back to "the exchange." we're just off those level said. your new level was 323 and we were up more than 400 points nasdaq down two and a quarter percent. this all feels like the first half of 2022 here. energy right now is leading the way with nearly a 2% increase. keep in mind energies, broadly speaking, having the worst month this year. that's true for oil, for the energy sector. and gasoline is likely to snap a seven-month winning streak a bit of a counter trendads

we're looking to close out the month and a half commodities like cotton are down 30%. thaltsler the worst monthly performance since 1995 you can see that in the corner there. the semiconductor is under pressure as well uncertainty not helping either commerce secretary told jim cramer last night that act has to be done by labor day. ceo will be on "closing bell". overall, been a tough space, even with qualcomm's jump today. let's get to a cnbc news update. >> and good afternoon. the house's january 6th committee ebegan the surprise hearing about 30 minutes ago an aid to mark meadows, who was the head of staff for donald trump. she says she asked meadows about a comment made about the

president leading protesters to the capitol january 6th. >> remember leaning against the doorway and saying had an interesting conversation with rudy, mark sounds like we're going to go the capitol. he didn't look up from his phone and said something to the effect of there's a lot going on, but i don't know things might get real, with real bad on january 6th. a judge in texas is temporarily blocking the enforcement of an abortion ban in 1925. it says today's order means prosecutors can act on the old law until at least mid midjuly clearing the way to begin resuming abortions up to the sixth week of praeg naens, until the trigger law goes into effect roughly two months from now. in tennessee, they're allowing the six-week abortion plan to

take effect and ban all abortions in two weeks three names on deck with quarterly results imply one of the stocks could move as much as 20% following the report

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welcome back, everybody. time for the action, the story and trade on three names getting set to report results. all set to report before the opening bell tomorrow morning. let's start with bed, bath and beyond down and on pace for the third straight loss. and of course comp sales unlike other retailers, bed, bath said it's struggling with in inventory shortages and remember supply chain issues. they're not going to make a profit founder and president of juul financial. it's great to see you again.

what do you dowith triple by >> you stay away you don't venture into this name for sure you watch from the sidelines you named all the pertinent facts and the biggest one is a 32% short at this moment you could see a company that has a whisper right now. negative $1.41 if they do anything even remotely close or better than that, you could see a pretty dramatic short squeeze but the reality is the company is riddled with debt if you are in this name and get the benefit of a short squeeze tomorrow, i think you can take your money and run >> what about those who say amazing stat about its balance sheet and indebtedness

and what do you think about those who say i'm going to jump in as well >> that's dangerous. you have aminfinite loss, so, yu could easily get your first margin call, if you were to do that a stock like this, at these level said, maybe somebody could do a deep dive and find real value. i cannot i don't see value here at all. this is a a stock where, unfortunately, it becomes like a casino and have been i have no interest >> thank you stay right there let's move along and talk about our next-day reporting it's general mills one of the stalwart consumer staples plays. on pace for the third-straight month of gains as the staples trade remains an out performer and inflation will remain a focal point here they want updates on cost

pressure and customer service levels as recession fears grow shares up 6% on the year what would you do with this one? >> in full disclosure, i own it personally and as a firm it pay as hefty 3% dividend. on a balance sheet for a staple, which is relatively nice compared to bed, bath & beyond, which has a debt to equity of seven. what we want to hear tomorrow is do they have the price elasticity do they have the ability to push those prices on to the kunl consumer or are they starting to see consumer demand dry up as well that will be interesting regardless what the stock does, i think this is a good defensive name in a difficult environment. again, about 3%. i think it's a nice play to put in your portfolio.

especially if we see a drop off of tomorrow's report i think it would be a nice opportunity to add more to the position >> there's so much when you dig below the surface. looking through analyst notes. didn't realize haggen daas was one. so, is there so much optimism -- i can't remember the last time someone came on and didn't have something positive to say about a name like this what could derail the story here >> well, it would be the pricing pressure it's real simple similar to what we saw with a retailer or target or walmart. we haven't had a staple say this is really starting to impact us to where we can't pass this on remember, this business has the ability to deal with inflagdsary pressures a lot differently than

a general retailer not only are prices going up in the grocery store but some of the contents of the package you're boiing seems to obe getting smaller. >> shrinkage >> they have unique abilities to pass it on they need to buy these products. that's why when tough times come and if we start to see an economic rebound, staples will get hit and hit hard because this is a rich stock 18 times forward earnings and they're only greing the earnings at four% it's a hiding dividend play. it's not a growth name >> if you told me in january, we're going to have reopening and inflation and rates going up and consumer staples are going to be out performing, i would have said you were crazy let's move to the last name today, which is paychecks.

that's the larmgest 401(k) record keeper. they recently announced they crossed 100,000401(k) clients. and they're watching profit margins and reinvestment and they've beat quarterly revenue estimates for five straight years this is not a name we talk about a lot. >> no, but we should i'm born and raised rawochester new york, where paychex is it's fantastic it's not a cheap stock, trading 30 times forward and only set to grow etf's close to 10%. but unlike the other names we've talked about, we're talking about 25% debtb to equity, very strong balance sheet so, dealing with all the debusinesses as they do with pay

rolls, which are strong because pay roll is low, they have the cash, the with wherewithall to continue to grow their business, expand, look for other ways to generate revenue from the existing businesses. whether it's 401(k) servicing, etc. looking at whisper number of 83 cents. i think as a trade, you could take this name here. i'm not a buy ahead of earnings guy ever i like this trade with a stop around 111 on paycheck >> 120 is the price today. thank you very much. for earnings exchange. still ahead, the yen is near multi-decade lows as the bank of japan sticks to their ultra low interest rate. and what it means for

multinationals mext. and take a look at shares of carvana. it's sinking 16% after steeple cut the price target to it 44 from 48. it's trading at 25.49. we're back after this.

elbecome back. most hiking interest rates sharply. but the bank of japan taking a different tact and that is taking a toll on the yen maybe intentionally. seema. >> take a look at the manations hiking rates the euro zone, under esb japan, which continues to ease, creating dislocation in the kurns canny market the yen at a nearly two-decade low resulting in higher loss and

calculating gains for portfolio managers invested in japan if you're invested, which does not hedge against the yen, you'd be down 21% over the past year, which does hedge against the yen. you can see it's up 4% in the same time period city economist says firms operating overseas, it hurts them being less competitive because their dollar-demom nominated cost we look at the companies with high exposure to japan names like philip morris and edward's life sciences and applied materials, apple with 8 to 10% of sales in japan the real effect will be in the bond market as they loose on the cap that is put on yields. and if that were to happen, that would sengd yields likely higher

and that's amazing they have 10% exposure >> that's what i mean but the sales. that's a significant amount, totally. and we know the potential ramifications or we don't but we can guess how ugly it can get if this thing spikes. should we expect it to give in on yields and evejally reset where the market wants them to be right now >> for yours that likes to geek out, and you could say the bank of japan would love to eat they're fixated on lowering rates and continuing to buy japanese bonds if history were to repeat itself, you would say don't bet against the doj. so, some would say it at some point, they have to looseen the cap and allow their 10-year yield to rise.

we don't know what the answer will be but it's being watched closely. >> thank you we appreciate it still ahead, muni bonds were once considered a safe investment what's driving the mood and it's not just the fed and whether they can get back on an even keel and crude climbing today the sector has seen steep rssses fit solar, sunrun and enphase. enphase the only name higher this year. municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does.

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continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. # # #. welcome back only 40% of muni bonds were owned by individuals in the first quarter of the year. that's according to t"the wall street journal". this marks a six-point drop from 2020 as institutional investors make further inrows. increased fund ownership has been a factor in muni's recent poor performance joining me now to discuss is gilbert garcia, owner and managing partner at garcia hamilton associates. i don't want to call you the bond king of texas, gilbert, but if that's what everyone else wants to call you. >> like anything else, my parents all -- i mean, my wife always telgsls me you're not the

bond king at 4030 herness way. which is my address. >> let's talk munis. what is going on in terms of changing ownership in this space? >> sure. if i could step back for just one second, i really think it's interesting because for the first time in the last b about a year, year and a half we're seeing many of our institutional clients, and we're primarily institutional clients and accepted munis as an eligible asset class in their asset allocation for us. in other words, for the first time we're starting to buy munis in our overall agagregate portfolios i think that's very telling, and i think it's a reflection of, number one, the interest differentials between munis and normal bond rates has declined but i also think that in the last two years you had a lot of issuance, and i think just when there's issuance, it sometimes just creates demand.

what we've seen -- go ahead, please. >> just to be clear that i'm understanding, basically what we've seen is yields rising to quite a level because people have panicked and gotten out of the space. i have to imagine that's why institutions are interested. >> yes, but here's the thing, up until recently, so what's happened very recently, which really only means essentially since march or so, individual investors have been pulling out dramatically you see sizable outflows out of the muni bond market and over the last couple of years we've had stable inflows so the outflows have been significant, and i think it's just a reflection of number one, people are starting to get a little antsy about higher rates. i think number two, they're very scared about inflation, and number three, i think you're starting to see a lot of things, you know, appearing into the market that is going to start to scare people, whether it's consumer confidence at all-time lows, whether it's business optimism near all-time lows. all of those things are a harbinger for what will probably

be an upcoming recession. >> so let me boil it down then, and it's great to have you here because you can kind of be in any of these fixed income asset classes and our viewers might be wondering what do i do if i can now get a little bit of yield in something pretty safe lie treasuries right now, where do you think it has value and where would you have people stay wrae away from? >> sure. first and foremost, i really think that the fed has been behind the curve i think they are desperately trying to catch up, and i think out of their desperation to catch up, you're going to see in our view us hitting a recession somewhere near the end of the year or early in the first quarter. how deep or how shallow depends upon things they do between now and then i think the concept of raising rates in big chunks of 75 basis points is very detrimental to the markets, especially in light of some of the things i mentioned, consumer confidence is already low, oil prices have already skyrocketed.

all these things that traditionally has been a harbinger of a recession are already here, and you compound it with money supply, which had been dramatically off the charts in growth during covid, has not only rolled over, it's now getting into tight and tight areas even tighter when you look at the high frequency data that really suggests that a recession is on the way. >> right, so point being if you had to rank them, where do you think are the best places in fixed income for an individual investor >> sure, i could tell you right now. number one, i would take advantage of the higher yields that exist today i think that we've seen either the peak of inflation or inflation is peaking, so i think this is a great time to get into the bond market, numberone and i would go into either high quality munis or i would go into u.s. treasuries. >> all right >> because i think that we expect that as the recession becomes to appear very clearly, that you're going to secret spreads and even the

mortgage-backed securities market and other spread product widen dramatically so i would stay away from credit we're underweight credit i would stay away from mortgages. we're underweight mortgages. i like treasuries, in particular some of the intermediate to longer treasuries. we think the curve is going to get steeper so you'll be able to get some roll down, and i like some of the high quality munis munis are very interesting because if you look historically they've had very low default rates. >> yeah. >> much lower than the credit market so i think people are missing out if they don't look at munis at these levels. >> and that's why they call you the bond king of your neighborhood at least. gilbert garcia. >> as long as i'm the bond king at my house, i'll be all right >> there you go. great to have you on today thank you so much. >> thank you please invite me again. >> we absolutely will. consider it done gilbert garcia, garcia, hamilton, and associates. still ahead, reddit traders trying to trigger runs in amc, and blackberry can they bring revlon back from

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reddit traders are setting their sights on revlon after it declared bankruptcy just about two weeks ago. shares are down today, but robert frank is here with the details. robert >> kelly, revlon shares still trading way above that dollar a share range when it announced the bankruptcy on june 16th. retail investors betting that this is the next hertz rental car. hertz of course generated that big windfall for investors who bought it right after a bankruptcy, yet revlon is a very different story. hertz was hit with a one-time pandemic shock revlon has suffered from rising losses and debt for years. that debt now over $3.5 billion. that's more than ten times its current market cap take a look at the bonds those are trading well below

par. the senior notes $0.64 on the dollar, other tranches of debt around $0.13 on the dollar bond investors think there is very little chance of getting paid in full they have to be made whole before shareholders get anything billionaire ronald pearlman controls 85% of the stock, so there isn't a lot of stock out there to trade the meme crowd has added $250 million to his net worth with this share increase, but bankruptcy experts say he's likely to get wiped out in this bankruptcy a recent post on wall street saying let's push our ev to the moon, $12 and up kelly, right now it's headed back down. >> wow great layout, and huge stakes for him personally as well robert, thank you very much. robert fraj. that does it for "the exchange," everybody "power lunch" begins right now