>> the politics are fascinating. every teenager, every 20-something is on tiktok all day long, as far as i can tell that's a huge group of americans out there who would be deeply upset if anything happens. >> they're not as big a voter turnout base tiktok your way down to the ballot box >> thank you for watching. >> "closing bell" starts right now. stocks have been bumping up and down and another choppy session on wall street the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm jon fortt. sara eisen will join us later in the show here is where things stand in the market right now well, you know, bumpy, like i said the dow up fractionally. the s&p down just a little bit the nasdaq also down just a little bit the russell, though, having the worst day of the four, down almost 1.5%. and check out the action in

energy that is the worst performing sector today with significant drops for names like devin energy, occidental, valero and marathon oil coming up we'll hear highlights from sara's panel with wells fargo ceo charles scharf including whether the u.s. is heading to a recession and his latest read on the housing ma market jerome powell vowing to fight inflation speaking at the european central bank forum earlier today saying the biggest risk to the economy would be to fail to restore price stability but a soft landing still possible >> we think there are pathways for us to achieve that, to achieve the path back to 2% inflation while still retaining and sustaining a strong labor market we can do that that is our aim. there's no guarantee we can do that it's something that is going to be quite challenging >> joining us now from

jeffrey's, david, how are you feeling now about the markets and about the fed's chances of this soft landing? i mean, he's not saying i feel really confident we can do it but maybe. we're still hoping >> yeah, i think his message has been very steadfast and i don't think there's much that's changed here he does believe maintaining that inflation anchor on long-term inflation expectations is the number one goal. i think loretta mester made hers it was good news that the michigan survey revised down the long-term expectations i think they'll take some comfort in that. we're on high alert for any signs that longer term inflation expectations are unanchoring and i think will be quite vigilant

against that and it's going to hurt a little bit. they're going to have to do qt, tighten and we'll have rates of 3% in the front end before you know it. >> and, alicia, is that why you still seem pretty confident the bottom is not in is this more like a bottom isn't in but don't try to find a bottom anyway and you're dipping in and think people should be looking for bargains or the bottom isn't in yet so stay away for a bit until we get a better signal >> just a couple things first on jay powell he signaled in the last couple of speeches that he's willing to risk the recession because fighting inflation at this point is the priority because you can't run an economy with high inflation that is ongoing. so the fed is willing to risk a recession. in fact, the reason we think the bottom is not in is not simply because of the fed, also quantitative tightening which we haven't talked about, but also because the earnings estimates have to come down first. that's our signal really to

where we would be interested in adding risk here because we do think there's a slowdown we're probably in a slowdown now. until we see realistic earnings coming out of the sell side we're waiting for that to happen because once that starts then you can get back in because then you have a realistic place evaluating companies >> what's that going to look like is that going to take a shock from earnings and guidance where companies have still been saying, well, the second half will look better, it will look better and eventually they're going to have to admit if this is the way it pans out it's not and we're going to have to feign surprise nobody sort of wants to admit it >> it's hard to believe the second quarter earnings are up 4.5% on estimates in the second half are going to be up 10.5%.

that's just not believable i think what we're hearing from companies now they're getting hit on the margin and as we've talked about the margin was also increased as a result of the fiscal stimulus. if you think everything is going back to where it was before, the historically high margin has to come down as well. that's where you'll see lower earnings we think we're sooner than later and that's why we're saying the bottom is not in the fed is boxed into going 75 basis points in july simply because there won't be enough data between now and then to really convince the fed to go any lighter on that. so if you add it all up, it's a tightening fed into a slowing economy with earnings that are way too high >> david, who will be the little kid in this version of the emperor's new clothes? the new earnings expectations to say maybe there's not as much there as we thought. how does this play out as investors are planning for

either earnings reports or what signal is going to come first that reality is setting in >> so i guess i'm not as negative on the earnings outlook. there's a lot of normminal growh not a lot of deflation and because there's a lot of inflation it does keep prices elevated and that's tending to be better for an earnings -- a dollar of earnings we haven't experienced that many recessions with inflation and with long-term inflation expectations anchored. i'm not sure that the street is really going to get -- maybe they will get quite negative and that will bring it down. i'm just not sure that the earnings have to come down that much in an era we have inflation and not disinflation >> okay.

i guess we'll see if the consumer cries uncle alicia, david, thank you >> thank you after the break, ohio senator rob portman weighs in on this recession debate. getting chips at funding through congress later, bed bath & beyond, the major pullback for the reta retailer down 24%. one investor feeling the pain today. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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let's check out today's "stealth mover." like it has a good muffler o'reilly auto, one of the biggest gainers in the s&p 500 after d.a. davidson upgraded and hiked the price target to 740 from 700 citing potential market share gains, pass along higher costs and expectations consumers will choose to fix their current cars rather than buying new ones because they don't have any money left after gas the latest data point in the recession debate, first quarter gdp was just revised a bit lower following 1.6% versus the last estimate of 1.5% the slowing economy was a topic in sara eisen's panel with rob portman in aspen and they both join us now. >> hi, jon nice to see you. good to have senator portman here from my home state of ohio.

we just got off a panel to believe talking small business you said you think we're either in or going into recession fed chair jay powell still thinks there's a shot at a soft landing. why are you not there? >> i would love to see a soft landing and i hope that's true but we saw the revised numbers we were negative economic growth and two quarters of that technically is a recession i don't know, nobody knows i suspect we're probably going to be negative growth again. in any case for most americans it sure feels like a recession already because they're paying $5 for a gallon of gas, because they are seeing food costs go up dramatically, clothing costs, everything for working families in ohio they're already pulling back and cutting back and so i think the recession mentality, unfortunately, is upon us. >> inflation is the big problem as you alluded to for our economy right now. you can play the blame game, i know you and your party put some of the blame on president biden,

but what are republicans proposing to do about it that the administration is not? >> well, it's pretty simple in the sense demand is exceeding supply still we have to do more on the supply side on the demand side, if that is taking its role, raising interest rates no one wants to see that but that will dampen demand. it's already happening probably, by the way, will have to go higher based on the history -- >> do you think the fed has done a good job >> they were slow as almost always easy to look back, but they were slow to come to the table if they raised interest rates it would have been better i think everyone agrees with that with regard to the supply side we have to have a more productive economy, produce here in america the oil and gas that we need for our economy. when we do that you'll see gas prices begin to go down. we talked about worker retraining, we have to be sure we have a more productive economy, reskill people quickly, are competitive in the global marketplace. semiconductors and reliant on other countries around the world that don't like us much for some

of these -- >> china >> china so this new legislation on the competition act, it's called -- >> the chips act >> it's also about the broader issue of making our economy more competitive. i would also argue the infrastructure bill is going to be good because it will actually be counter inflationary as we build long-term assets but we need to back off on the stimulus which causes the demand and overheated the economy, the $1.9 trillion from last march was a real problem so i disagree with the biden administration on that we have to do much more on the supply side. >> so you're right in the thick of this. intel wants to build the two plants in ohio he delayed the groundbreaking ceremony on the show yesterday, it was said it's game time for congress and wants to see it before the august recess. what is the likelihood of that right now? >> i hope it happens i've spent most of my time out here being with you and trying to help on the process i think we'll probably get it

done because it makes so much sense. we're falling way behind semiconductors are in everything, essential to our economy. we used to produce a lot of them we came up with the whole technology 30 years ago we had 37% of the production here in america semiconductors produced in one country in asia, taiwan. so we're reliant on other countries right now. people are lined up waiting for semiconductors to be added it's about electronics, about everything we do in our lives. it's more digital, and it's about our national security and that's important to me that we have a semiconductor industry here in the united states we can rely on for our f-35 fighters, for all of the more sophisticated military technology that we need to keep that advantage >> it seems like a no-brainer and is a bipartisan issue, so what is the holdup here? >> it's bipartisan but the house bill and senate bills were very different. i would argue the house bill

should have looked more like the senate bill because we passed it 15 months ago. we came out with a bipartisan product. now we're in conference trying to figure it out this is an essential matter for us to address. my hope is we can come together. >> right it was threatened they'll put that money overseas into europe where they are getting now subsidies. >> europe and asia we just had a silicon company say they're going to produce in south korea rather than in texas. we do need to pass this and

there's more than just the c.h.i.p.s. act including our research from china because over the last two decades, unfortunately, china has identified the best research and taking that back to china helping them leapfrog us >> you think it gets done before the august recess -- we don't have to wait until after the midterms >> i think it has to get done quickly. if not the companies will make decisions to go elsewhere. germany has put euros on the table and so have countries in asia, more than we're putting on, by the way we're not going to be as generous with our incentives but we're doing enough to produce here we have to bring things back, things we need that are essential. >> i know you're in the thick of it, have been taking calls the whole time senator rob portman, thank you for taking the time. jon, back to you with the latest on the back and forth over the c.h.i.p.s. act which senator portman says there's a chance. >> there's hope. you would hope and expect to see hope out of ohio on this one as you mentioned, sara.

the dow right now still in the green by just about 100 points the s&p, nasdaq and russell all negative and after the break, wall street analysts making an unusually high number of calls today it's not just rob portman. we're going to break down the biggest stock moving notes and we will explain what the high earnings revisions could tell us about the market's next move check out some of today's top-searched tickers on cnbc.com the ten-year yield on top followed by tesla, bed bath & beyond, carnival and disney. alts more to do with your zip code than your genetic code? that doesn't seem fair. we agree. but where you live determines access to doctors, green spaces and fresh food. that's why we grow our own. smart. we don't think it's right that some people are healthier than others just because of where they live. that's why we're delivering food to areas with less access to it, and helping schools teach kids about gardens. wish they'd taught gardening at my school. you would have aced it.

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a few upgrades and down grades today three upgrades for goldman, mcdonald's, ulta getting moved higher because of resilience and customer loyalty on the other hand there were a number of down grades based on weakening macro conditions on

upstart morgan stanley writing rising rates will hamper demand, cutting carnival saying it sees a zero dollar per share the company has to endure another plus three chip names taken down at bank of america the maturity of the smartphone cycle and elevated inventory now mike santoli in today's dashboard. >> that preponderance of ratings changes reflects the fact that as of ten days ago facts we still had an unusually high number of buy ratings. this tracks earnings the net revision to earnings, basically for every six companies you have ten that are decreased.

that's your net minus four number what i find interesting is when we've been here before you take this back, deep, nasty recessions covid crash. the sovereign debt and u.s. debt default crisis 2018 and 2019. a lot of talk out there analysts have been slow, they're complacent, not reckoning with the fact they're not cutting numbers. in aggregate the estimates are holding up because of energy i do think we're seeing an expectations reset >> is it going to take a demand shock, the demand easing off on the individual for this to really change if it does change? >> i think you probably do it's rolled through various

sectors. you did see after target had its bombshell of very slow demand. everybody swept down their estimates for retailers. i don't know if it will happen across the board with nominal growth high, sales growth, it doesn't seem to be in question because of inflation. >> those credit card bills from the summer fun up next, highlights from sara's panel with wells fargo ceo charlie scharf including how rising interest rates and economic concerns are impacting his company's big mortgage business we'll be right back.

welcome back sara eisen sat down with wells fargo ceo charlie scharf at the aspen ideas festival and joins us now with some highlights. sara >> hi, again, jon. i moderated a panel about small business with scharf and senator rob portman who just said, as you heard, he sees recession happening. i asked scharf about what he is seeing in loans and banking for small business and, of course, for the rest of the economy. listen

>> i would say small business mirrors what we see in terms of the consumer, in terms of the fact they're incredibly strong they've been incredibly strong now since all of the government aid that was so important to help so many of the small businesses get through covid and all of the metrics that we look at in terms of credit quality, when we look at the flow of funds coming through small businesses, it's just very hard to see any weaknesses and we're looking for them to make sure we're not missing something. having said that i would say we're still extraordinarily concerned and based upon some of the things we're starting to see in the consumer space do expect to see deterioration and then the question is how far does that go. >> do you agree with the senator, are we going into recession? are we in recession? >> listen, i'm not an economist so, again, i'll tell you just what we see versus -- >> do you see a hurricane? >> what we see is that on the consumer side those with less wealth have much more pressure

than they ever had their balances are below what they were prepandemic. on average everyone looks fine when you look at the lowest wealth levels, it's not surprising that their deposits are going down because when you look at what they're spending through the debit cards they're having to spend 25% more on fuel, food prices are up they're just starting to see increases in rent and those who have adjustable rates in terms of mortgages when you start to see that, that's the outlook where you say it's going to spread into higher wealth levels, won't go all the way up probably, and weep should be really concerned about that group because that group has the least amount of options. >> he wouldn't use the word recession but definitely flagged the warning symbols on the lower end consumers. i also had to ask him about housing as wells fargo is one of the largest home lenders, with mortgage rates spiking, sales slowing, and the fed continuing

to hike rates. listen >> we're seeing a huge decline in terms of mortgage applications we actually said recently publicly our mortgage revenues will be down 50% from the first quarter to the second quarter. of which part of it is price, but part of it are applications and refis have come way down which you would expect and how many people have refi'd up to this point and the purchase market the purchase volume is down because there's a limited supply rates are up financing is more expensive for people that is -- that has some ripple effects that are difficult but i do think one of the issues is the affordability of housing for a broad group of people. i hate to sound like a broken record but the people who are at the lower end of that are the

ones that have -- it impacts the most they can't stretch, harder for them to get credit and so they're the ones who will be the most impacted right away in an environment like this but real estate values, you know, are moderating in the long term are a good thing >> for inflation >> i think for absolutely for inflation. it's a part of it. it all filters through again, it will be messy going through it >> not a good thing for his business they've been in the mortgage business for a long time and know it's cyclical and expect the good times and the bad as far as the fed, scharf did say we should expect, quote, significant hikes still from the federal reserve. 50 or 75 basis points. he said it could be even more if the data changes and that it's not all in the market. for instance he still sees rents

with room to come down also says the stock market and bond market will be messy. we're going to act surprised even though we shouldn't be that the federal reserve is going to have to raise rates here a bunch. >> yeah, sara, it sounds like the poor are in recession already. the lower middle class is already in -- >> that was the takeaway, yes. >> can you count on them spending just as much or more on christmas gifts? we'll see. sara, thanks here is where we stand in the markets at this point. kind of running in place a little bit the dow just a little bit higher than flat, up about a third of a percent. the s&p and nasdaq about flat and the russell still down more than 1%. bed bath & beyond shares plunging on a shake-up costing high-profile investor ryan cohen a lot of money details when "closing bell" returns.

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welcome back bed, bath and beyond getting wrecked on news of management change apart from ousted ceo mark trenton one man feeling big pain is ryan cohen of chewy fame. the details in today's wall street buzz. leslie when cohen first revealed

his stake in bed bath & beyond back in early march shares soared 34% that day. they gained, again, later that month when the two sides agreed to a settlement. since then bed bath & beyond stock has decelerated culminating in today's 24% plus losses thanks to slumping sales and shake-up of trenton as you mentioned. i spoke with a source who said cohen had been pushing for trenton to depart as the two disagreed on strategy for bed bath i'm told he's continuing to push for the spinoff of bye-bye baby. cohen declined to comment when reached out for comment. i'm told cohen owns 12% of the company. his settlement from march included a one-year standstill which means he can't run another

proxy contest until spring 2023. shares down about 70% since he revealed his stake on march 7th which was said to be $150 million. current market cap is $400 million at these levels. >> a heck of a time to be trying to make something happen in retail with everything happening with interest rates, with the consumer i don't know if you have any historical perspective on activist moves that are perhaps suspect in the timing. >> well, with this situation mark trenton initially took the role as part of a different activist plight at the company and looking to shake things up that added four directors to the board at the time, mccallum was one of them. this company has seen its fair share of turnover and that's true across the retail space

trying to determine the best path forward as it pertains to the consumer this situation you could do the spinoff of bye-bye baby but it comes to how do you really turn this company around. they have an interim ceo at bed bath & beyond. part will be finding a permanent ceo for this company >> we'll see if they can spin the bye-bye baby out with the bath water here at bed bath & beyond leslie, thank you. up next, jpmorgan chief u.s. economist michael feroli on how tomorrow's key inflation data could impact the fed and the market that story plus semiconductors slumpi wn te u si the market zone.

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and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. risk reversal adviser here to break down the crucial moments and kristina partsinevelos on the semiconductor slump and jpmorgan chief economist michael feroli on inflation. stocks struggling for direction today. dan nathan, what are you focusing on? >> interesting, john, if you look at each month of this year the s&p 500 has had dips in the first couple weeks of each month

and here we are with these late-month rallies we are, like you said, struggling to find direction in the end of this month, the end of this quarter. i suspect we're losing some steam into what will be a very dicey july with probably some earnings pronouncements. i think investors are still trying to parse out the multiple in a difficult environment where the visibility is so low, interest rates will stay high. the inflation will be sticking around the back half of the year >> i can't help but wonder there was this rally, march heading into april end of the first quarter. june into july that's faded a bit. what to make of that, what does that say pattern wise on the

year or the second half? >> i think that's a really good point. what's changed quarter over quarter the fed started raising interest rates they were talking about it but in mid-march they really did have their first 25-point basis point hike they've been very steadfast about what they're going to do in july and again in september the rates, the fact we have a ten year above 3%. the second quarter started the ten year at 2% so you would think the quarter change in that, we have a dollar that's very near multiyear highs here inflation readings are not letting up anytime soon. we're seeing signs inflation might have peaked. >> well, we've heard that before, too. chip stocks are getting chopped again today. kristina partsinevelos joins us.

kristina, signs then that customers might have bought too many chips, filled up on chips before dinner in the past year >> talking inventory levels, there's a concern manufacturers keep building new capacity, leads to a glutton of components and risk overcapacity. you're saying, hey, no, that's not a problem right now. we are starting to see the price of gpus decreasing there's been an improvement in supply chains and a decrease in demand by gamers and crypto miners that's putting some pressure on prices and could affect companies like amd and nvidia. and then you also have the next generation just around the corner memory chip prices starting to decline. trend force, one research firm, predicts prices could drop between 3% and 8% in the third quarter of this year that counts for inflation and

would hit micron you have a cyclical nature for chips, a weakness in the user market like 5g and smart phones and then the question, where does the spillover happen next could it be cloud and enterprise bofa downgraded stocks seems to think so >> dan, pricing weakness in gpus and gaming cards, how important is that? that was the area, right, premium, high margin doing well for several quarters >> you know the space very well, jon. it was doing very well and was applied to a lot of new technologies, right, over the last few years and then when you think about the pull forward and the demand for some of the products the gpus were going into during the pandemic, this is something we're seeing in lots of different parts of technology i say this about nvidia. we all agree this is a company

that's done tremendous job as far as market share and innovation but it's a $400 billion market cap company that has been cut in half the last seven or eight months or so that trades at 11 times sales if we're in an environment where investors are really concerned about cyclicality, you're going to be kind of careful about a stock trading at this multiple amd is down about 50% or so. they've done a good job on some of the other technologies and also for taking shares until we get a better read, i think some of the stocks will continue to come under pressure. the last point i'll make b of a look what they did with their price targets. i suspect you will see numbers come down as we get the back half of the year guidance. >> yes, maybe reality setting in as opposed to reality setting

in moving on shares of digital reality under pressure although off the lows after it was revealed data center operators are the big short right now citing increase in competition from hyper scalers, big tech companies like amazon, microsoft and more leslie picker rejoins us leslie, interesting thesis from jim. >> it certainly is an interesting thesis especially since, as he describes it, almost an investor simplicity to the trade. growth in cloud, you need growth in data centers, people should be putting more work in data centers. a lot of real estate capital as you've seen the declining value of malls and traditional real estate opportunities, a lot of those types of investments have shifted and focused more on

technology as that's been the growth area in recent years. basically what chanos is saying there's not a 1:1 correlation because there's no second derivative benefit to these reits and the data centers that provide services for the big guys because the big guys can create their own centers or they can ask for lower rates in order to use their services. he's basically saying the market has it wrong here. >> yes and earlier on "tech check" we were talking about this and i said, hey, to all the investors out there, be careful on this short because it's not like it's -- if you believe in cloud, then it's necessarily against these data center reits because they rely on co-location and chanos tweeted back about that let's have a look at that.

bosa suggested maybe he didn't have the sound on and recognized the nuance of the argument we were making. he said i have the sound on, guys, but would stress the financial reality vs. jon's narrative. yes, there will always be some demand for hybrid solutions but at lower rates i haven't gone through the numbers, leslie. and clearly he has i'm just saying not all of these data centers are built with the same technology and some might be bridging to hyper scalers and public cloud in a way that allows them to fare better than others >> yeah. it's not necessarily a trade where you would say go long big tech and go short these data centers. it's more nuanced than that, more complex than that to your point a lot of these data centers do have contracts which tend to be longer term in nature this seems like it's more of a trade that would take place over

the longer term if it does pan out and that's something chanos is betting on, raising an spv to bet on it. it's not something that i think needs to be immediate like we've seen with his recent trades and say coin base or carvana which have paid off handsomely he's up 30% as the market has obviously plummeted. >> yeah. dan nathan, is this mostly about sentiment, though? have people gotten and remained too bullish, too excited about these data center providers? is there perhaps opportunity there? >> it might be listen, jim is a friend. he is literally one of the best investors out there, one of the best i've ever met and i've been in the business for 25 years and when i say investor we introduced as being short sellers because he's nailed some of these things especially the last year, year and a half or so when i look at this and i looked at this tweet here and i see

what's going on, i think it makes perfect sense. when you think about this reit, the equix in particular, why is it traded eight times sales when that's not far away from amazon's multiple that's put by investors and expectations for this year and next 30% earnings growth seem high to me this stock is only down 23% on the year, right, and so when you look at an amazon down 35%, retail is kind of weighing on that and investors will place more emphasis on the higher margin business but it doesn't make any sense why that stock equix should trade at a superior multiple by any means in my opinion. >> okay. you agree with chanos. let's get some key inflation data we're going to get that tomorrow core personal consumption expend t expenditures that's the fed's preferred inflation gauge.

could hold some clues for the market on whether or how big the fed is going to hike rates next month. more a question how big. joining us for more is jpmorgan chief u.s. economist mike feroli michael, last time we got an inflation reading higher than expected, the market sure did react. >> one thing i would keep in mind, it's a regurgitation of cpi and ppi data that's already been recorded. i think we kind of know what's coming tomorrow with a fair degree of precision. i think what's probably more important for that july meeting that you referenced is the june cp ireport which we'll get in a few weeks and if that's another hot one it looks like 75 is probably in the bag. i would keep an eye out tomorrow you mentioned the pce data i would keep an eye on the initial claims data. there are signs the economy is slipping pretty quickly here in some of the business surveys we've seep and the claims data is a very high frequency and,

well, somewhat reliable gauge on when we're losing momentum on growth i would also keep an eye on that at 8:30 tomorrow >> so, mike, would you say initial jobless claims more important than pce there's been a lot of talk about pce today. if it's a derivative of what we've seen already and the argument i've been hearing is, oh, well, while there's still so much employment how can we really have a recession if employment looks like it's backing off, is that more likely to cause people to reconsider? >> look, i think if employment slips here the fed probably will be patient for a few months before reconsidering their hawkish path, but i do think the pce number we'll get tomorrow i think we'll get within a few basis points begin the way the number is constructed. we have no idea what the claims number will be this week and last week we've seen some business surveys that suggest that perhaps -- i'm not trying to say -- not trying to

be alarmist here, but there have been signs business sentiment is slipping pretty quickly here and that's why i want to keep an eye on those gauges. >> help me understand what to expect here then because the way i was thinking about it, if initial jobless claims are higher than expected, oh, well, that could mean there's a greater risk of a recession because employment isn't holding up as well as some people had hoped to bolster the overall economic situation the fed might actually hike less which the market might have the opposite reaction to >> i don't think the fed will be jumpy on a higher number the michigan inflation expectations number, but if we're thinking about the path of the next few months if the labor market shows signs of slipping then that really changes the story. we already know the trajectory

on housing is down it looks like the trajectory on manufacturing is down. consumers slowing a little bit but holding in and they're holding in because jobs growth has been 300,000, 400,000 per month and that's the expectation it will remain pretty solid the next few months. if those expectations start to slip lower then i think this narrative we'll dodge a recession will start to look a little more up in the air. again, i'm not saying that there are some signs >> right michael, thank you okay, dan nathan, tomorrow's the last day of the quarter of the first half and we're getting pce and initial claims how will you position heading into all of that >> i think we kind of hit on this before. we're peteering into quarter end, will have two negative quarters in the stock market we have not had i think that discussion about some of the prints are interesting to me. this push and pull between the hot cpi or hot inflationary

pressures versus stuff telling us the economy is weakening. and i think you are 100% correct to keep an eye on those employment data because if it starts ticking up and we start seeing a weakening consumer like we've seen this week and that consumer confidence that was at 16-month lows i think that push and pull will be the thing that obviously causes the fed to stop raising at the pace it has it is not going to be great for stocks i'm not expecting a q3 that will be that much better than what we've seen so far but i do think investors think past 2023 what's a more constructive environment. dollar cost averaging in stories thinking about 2023 and beyond >> perhaps encouraging and, hey,

as we head into the close, the major indices treading water the s&p and the nasdaq just about flat the dow up maybe a quarter of a percent but we'll see how it settles out, a couple of big names are ending the day pretty strong amazon, apple, both up better than 1%. over to my friend mike santoli for "overtime. welcome to "overtime." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner in just a few minutes we'll speak with liz ann sonders opening up her playbook as we gear up for the second hatch of the year we begin with our talk of the tape, wall street's waiting game, investors hitting the pause button ahead of key inflation data due out tomorrow before the bell. what is at stake with josh brown. we saw the