it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. here is the top five at 5:00 stocks set to close a tough first half of the year s&p 500 looking at the first big loss of the year futures are pointing to more pain on the way. wti on pace for the longest quarterly win streak as opec members gather to discuss output amid record costs. deared ed deal voter delan the discount airline.

shares of rh sliding as the chain becomes the latest company to offer warnings about the road ahead. security concerns in america's heartland. the farm land bought by a company from china just feet from a military base it is thursday, june 30th. you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good morning i'm seema mody in for brian sullivan at this hour. let's kickoff the hour with the check on the markets your money and futures pointing to a lower open. dow down 200 points. nasdaq down 160 points stocks looking to close out a tough first half of the year not counting today, dow is down 14.5% so far this year much worse than the s&p.

down under 20% its worst first half start since 1 1970 nasdaq hit hardest and down 28%. the tech heavy index on pace for the worse quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008 the 10-year treasury is working to hold above 3% 3.06%. investors watching several economic reports today and that could, of course, move the bond market oil. crude is holding steady ahead of the opec plus meeting. wti is at $109 in crypto, bitcoin is volatile it is trading down by 4% ethereum is down by 5% take a look at this. bitcoin and ethereum on pace for the worst month since 2018

let's go worldwide with rosanna lockwood in the london newsroom with the trade in early. good morning, rosanna. >> good morning, seema heavily in the red this morning. the markets are giving up as we head to the end of the quarter and half very negative. two points off the cac in paris. inflation figures are 6.5% inflation. inflation concerns and the central bank is meeting in portugal and will react with aggressive policy tightening and potential for tipping into recession. the dak in germany is down 2% as well one company in particular, uniper the utilities company is exposed to gazprem in russia it has fallen below 17% this

morning. let's give you a look at sectors. unsurprisingly reflected in oil and gas dd dodow down .80, here in europe, it is negative down 3.5%. >> thank you, rosanna. let's get a check on the top stories with silvana henao good morning >> seema, good morning a key vote by spirit is facing delay. the vote on the proposed merger is set for later today and moved to next friday, july 8th spirit is making the move to discuss further options with frontier and jetblue this marks the second time spirit delayed a vote on the combination with frontier. frontier and jetblue increasing both offers ahead of the vote.

spirit shares are higher on the news a different story for shares of rh. the chain saying it anticipates consumer demand will soften in the back half of 2022. the ceo citing mortgage rates and decline in luxury home sales and the fed rate and grayscale is suing the s.e.c. over the application to convert the bitcoin trust into the bitcoin etf. citing a failure by the investment manager on other concerns of market manipulation. grayscale filed to make the trust an etf back in october seema, the ruling had faced previous delays. >> big story there silvana, thank you. markets preparing to close out the worst first half of the

year since 1970. the s&p currently is down 20%. hovering at 3,800. the latest quarterly stock report is a mixed picture on where the index goes from here 40% say it has room to run the other majority say 34% saying it holds above 3,500. for more on this, let's bring in peter and phillip. gentlemen, great to see you. peter, a lot of trepidation about what the fed will do next and if we enter recession. what is your take? >> i think it is almost a guarantee we head to recession that is typically what happens with the fed tightening. the fed tightening at the most

aggressive pace in 40 years, at 40-year highs, i don't see how we avoid one we see impacts on the interest rates with housing and you mentioned rh said. also, of course, a quick impact on markets which then house an impact on the economy. the fed seems to be intent on getting to 3% plus the fed fund rate it will be tough to avoid the economic implications of that. >> phil, if recession is i inev inevitable, what is the best way to make money? we have been illustrating these graphics showing how tough the first half of the year has been for investors. >> i talked about this on your show before the year started de-risk portfolio made sense a lot of money was made in 2020 and 2021 if you did that, i agree with

peter. it will not happen just like he said, it will cause recession. between 10% to 20% more down side from here what you do is you have to be patient. there is incredible opportunity to buy great stocks of great businesses on the cheap. if you are a long-term investor, you will perform well. the money to be made is in bear markets. that's where we're headed. >> you say investors should have cash and gold. peter, what are your thoughts? value out performed growth so far this year. >> i think that's going to continue for not just this year, but years to come. one reason he bbecause the reve took place last ten years. value stock has expectations embedded in there so there is less multiple risk i agree with phil on the bright

s side of the bear market, there are opportunities to be created, but only if you have cash to deploy it. i'm bullish on gold and silver there will be opportunities in asian markets as global growth slows, but asia will be a standout looking out over the next five to ten years as the middle class and china and india and indonesia and other parts continue to rise in prominence in the years to come >> it is fascinating china, after months of losses, staging the best rebound in the month of july since june of 2020 when looking at the kweb index peter, you have an eye on japan. growing pressure on the bank of japan with the lifting cap on the 10-year treasury why is this important to investors? >> this is the next potential

major event in the global bond markets. bank of japan has been sup suppressing the 10-year treasury there is growing pressure they will have to expand because of rising inflation and other central banks tightening and they are not when they do, because they eventually will, you will see another round of earthquake in global bonds keep an eye on the 40-year jgp yield. the furthest on the yield curve. it is least manipulated by the doj. it will given you an indication of where it is going. >> phil, what is the year-end target for the 10-year treasury? >> markets are on the upside and down side. i would not be surprised if we see 3.75% or greater eventually if i'm right about the call on recession, yields

will be lower at some point below that level in the shortshort-term, you seen extraordinary issue. >> peter and phil, thank you. when we come back, semis getting snapped. more on the steep losses. and opec is talking about energy prices. and president biden is set to wrap up the trip to europe and looking to counter russia. we have kayla tausche in madrid with the latest on the summit. a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on.

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welcome back a check on futures on the final trading day of june and the quarter and first half of 2022 dow futures indicating a lower open by 1.1% nasdaq down nearly 2%. nasdaq looking for losses of around 1.8% at this hour as we close out june trading, let's look at the etf. on pace for the worst month and quarter since the financial

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welcome back ahead of the final trading day

of the second quarter, crypto in a rough spot with bitcoin about to close out the worst quarter since 2011 hovering below $20,000 worse for ethereum in its record since inception in 2015. let's check out the performance of oil prices as we close out the second quarter brent crude is up 7% wti is set for the ninth straight quarterly gain which is the longest winning streak record on going back to its inception in 1983. opec and opec plus meet today with no big policy changes expected let's bring in louise dickson who is looking closely at this louise, what could happen that would surprise the market? >> our view is according to the secondary sources is that opec

plus will really hold back on making any tricky policy adjustments today because deciding what to do with supply for september of 2022 onwards, it is really in the volatile market it is a bit too early to discuss the appropriate supply and response so far out. we expect this month to be a rollover and the bigger questions tackled at next month's meeting. >> what price does oil need to trade? brent crude at $116. what price does it need to trade in order to encourage leaders to take some type of action >> well, for opec plus, as a group of exporting countries, of course, the factors of what you mentioned has been one of the longest and most sustained bull cycles of oil in recent history. for the exporting nations, they

are not necessarily facing the same constraints as net importers. the net importers, the u.s. to europe to latin america is really battling with inflation to compete against the stronger dollar and buy enough fuel and keep economies running you understand that most of the opec countries are not facing the same immediate concern in their local government discussions. >> right president biden now just days away from his trip to saudi arabia where he will ask for the saudis to help the u.s. with transporting oil and getting more oil to the united states. how do you think that meeting will go and impact the where oil trades >> this has been the initiative from the presidential administration for about a year now and opec has not really been able to increase production. that's not necessarily a

function of not wanting to help out the u.s., but it is also facing a lot of structure declines, whether out of west africa and the russian supply hit and the outages in libya and el sadopple ecuador. if saudi arabia wants to increase production, it has to be a unlateral decision with uae and iraq to decide to step in and intervene and alleviate the price issues faced today. >> that makes sense. louise, thank you. have a great day let's get a check on the other headlines. nbc's frances rivera is in new york with the latest >> seema, good morning the january 6th investigation issued subpoena for former white

house counsel chris cipollone. this hutchinson testified yesterday. and stephen breyer will officially retire today. he was confirmed by the senate in the 87-9 vote he will immediately begin retirement on historic note helping to swear-in his successor ketanji brown jackson this afternoon she will be the first black woman to serve on the nation's highest court. despite the highest gas prices, aaa estimates 47.9 million will travel this weekend. there are already over 8,000 cancellations for today. delta airlines warned to prepare for a weekend with operational

challenges taco bell is testing two new menu eitems called the big cheez-it tostada it is only available in irvine,

california you don't have to get too creative and get a cheez-it and get taco bell. >> frances, thank you. still on deck, stocks set to close what has been a tough first half of 2022 more losses on tap when you look at the pre-market action rbc's amy wu silverman lays out the summer could not be the case if you haven't already, follow us on the podcast if you miss "worldwide exchange." check us out on other podcasts apps we will be right back.

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stocks set to keep up the theme of 2022 on this final trading day of the first half. pointing to solid losses at the open and spirit delays shareholder vote the former airline executive david banmiller lays out the

next steps. and president biden is looking to get more from nato. we have kayla tausche with more from world leaders it is thursday, june 30th. you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. welcome back i'm seema mody in for brian sullivan it is right at 5:30 a.m. on the east coast here is how the markets and your money is looking a lower open with the dow down 370 points so far, it has not been a great year for the bulls not counting today's action, the dow is down 14.5% so far in 2022 much worse on the s&p 500 down under 20%. its worst first half start since 1970 nasdaq hit the hardest more than 28% down the tech heavy index is on pace

for the worth quarter since the fourth quarter in 2008. look at the bond market. the 10-year treasury is looking to hold above 3% right now at 3.05% in the oil market, that has been a good trade for the bulls crude holding steady ahead of the opec plus meeting. wti at $109 a barrel according to the latest stock report, oil is slated to finish above $100 by the end of the year 37% of those asked give that projection a similar amount saying oil will finish above $130 13% of those saying oil will finish above $80 a barrel. to some of the more top stories. silvana henao is here with those. >> seema, senate democrats say they are seeing major progress

on a plan to advance president biden's economic agenda. sources selling nbc news, lawmakers are closer to a deal to lower prescription drug costs as part of the party line package with the final agreement in the coming days the sources add, chuck schumer and joe manchin appeared to have made progress, but no final deal on the broader deal tackling the reconciliation package with energy and climate policy provisions and tax changes to raise revenue. pfizer announcing a $3.2 billion deal with the u.s. government for more than 100 million doses of the covid vaccine. the deal includes a reworked shot targeting the omicron variant. it will be delivered in the late summer some shots will be in single dose vials which are more

expensive, but reduce waste of unused shots a wave of mega deals boosted mergers to $2 trillion in the first half of the year according to data from refinitiv deals have been announced so far in 2022 which is up 12% from a year ago overall volume deal is down by one fifth. there are worries some of the biggest deals like elon musk's takeover of twitter may fall through or take longer than expected to close. seema. >> that has had affect on the stock price. thank you. to your big money movers and the vote by spirit airline share ho holders facing another delay spirit moving the vote to next week saying it will discuss further options with frontier and rival jetblue.

both frontier and jetblue upping the offers ahead of the scheduled vote and the battle for the airline. let's talk about it with david m banmiller. you are an expert in the airline industry do you think the spirit merger moves ahead? >> something will move ahead this is like a kabuki dance. you have the music and somebody left the last chair. i don't know what is going on today. now frontier was very aggressive in going after spirit. as you know, bill frank, the chairman of frontier, used to own spirit he has his legs in both of the deals. jetblue is desperate to make this happen. they already made five bids. every day it seems to change they up their offer. what i would suggest -- one part

of the offer is how much per share and what percentage of the company? frontier will have 51% and run the airline under bill fraung. a lot of moving parts we don't know about only the insiders know that. in addition to share price, market people will look if they get cash if they get shares, what is the pro forma for the greater shareholder value? i don't hear people talk that much. >> if jetblue doesn't win this bid, what is another airline they could go after? >> alaska grabbed virgin when jetblue was bidding. so that's off the table. some countries are small with 50

airplanes. the issue is organic growth versus fast growth and facilities and planes and pilots if you grow organically, it takes longer and more expensive. resources likes gates would be an issue when you merge, like frontier with spirit, you get increased capacity and increased pilots and increased gates and lower overall costs because you will not have the same overhead for either company i think jetblue doesn't want this combination of spirit and frontier because it will be a very hard competitor in a very low-cost airline environment. >> david, if we see more m & a in the airline industry, what does it mean for customers will some of the concerns be alleviated what they see right now at the airports with cancellations and delays does that go away? >> that is not going away any time soon.

fourth of july is not going away any any time soon. that will be around for a couple of months. the issue with this combination, everybody talks in the government and biden administration will talk about what is good for the consumer. these two carriers are very low-priced carriers with low costs. that will not change if anything, it will be more aggressive i see the consumer benefitting from the combination of spirit and frontier if you were to ask me on the sidelines, what should unfold? i think that will unfold either one will be reviewed by the d oj i don't know what jetblue will do other than write checks for breakup fees

a i assume the carriers have done the prop forma you are limited to what you can bid and afford i have been in one of those. the other guy runs out of money. i don't know what jetblue's strategy is other than stopping a tough competitor they will be the fifth largest and ultra low cost >> american air, jetblue and delta airlines trading down in pre-market trade david banmiller, thank you >> take care. today marks the end of a three-day summit among national owe allies as they look to keep the pressures on russia and china. chief among the topics are energy supplies with leaders looking to bring down prices and slow the inflation trends.

kayla tausche is in madrid and joins us with a special guest. >> reporter: good morning. western leaders are here closing on out the nato summit which comes after the g7 summit. western leaders are discussing the concept of the price cap on the russian oil and gas to choke off vladimir putin's war machine. i'm here with the architect of the price cap. thank you forego being here with us. >> thank you, kayla. >> russia can produce oil at $10 a barrel what is the reasonable price to land >> the major achievement here at the g7 is the leaders agreed to a concept where we will explore and we're now going to go out and talk to other buyers around the world and with the private sector to make sure we explain the architecture and how it works. instead of focusing on russian

volumes of crude oil off the market, but go after the revenue. >> what if he refuses to sell oil or gas at the price you want >> this is not covering natural gas. this is on oil into the global market and product that's where with we e will havo design the mechanism we have to price it in the right way to ensure we get this right. we are still working on the mechanism and talk to partners about it we have a good shot of taking away of lot of revenue by reducing that price. >> are india and china on board? >> we got to the agreement at g7 and start the con kconversation. this is also not just for the largest buyers, but smaller ones we have evidence that he is selling oil at extremely

discounted prices. that's already there we know he is willing to sell. there are reports by buyers reporting a $30 discounts in cases. some places low. we know he is willing to sell at a discounted rate because he needs the revenue for the war machine. >> you are trying to control the amount of supply on the market keeping more supply out there. you are also trying to control the costs. of course, opec plus is the major producing group in the world right now. saudi arabia is the effective leader of opec plus. the president will be traveling there in two weeks how confident are you that saudi arabia can convince other opec member countries to produce more even if it can't produce materially more >> the opec plus countries already made a major shift in their attitude toward the market a few weeks ago at the beginning

of june, they are announcing they heare ending policy sayingn demand -- the demand was not just fifying more supply they took that they brought the deal forward. they will increase on july 1st >> the price of oil rose on that day. >> the price of oil today -- we never look at oil prices on the day of anything. we are at a place where the president is doing everything he can to make sure that there is enough supply on the market and enough refining capacity in the united states and that the consumers can pay a lower price whenwe are in the middle of a war. that is why he ordered 1 million barrels a day. imagine where we would be without that when we get to opec plus, they announce increase for july and august we continue to talk to them and producers around the world and

producers at home in the united states states. >> you mentioned the reserves at the low. what discussions have you had whether there needs to be more coordinated releases in the fall and how much does the current level at the growth factor into that >> we announced that we will release 180 million barrels over six months 1 million barrels a day. the rest of the world announced 60 million barrels that is ongoing through the end of the year. >> do you expect the rest of the world to do more >> i think we are trying to plug a gap that exists where the u.s. producers would increase production and cap x that will come online at the end of the year. 800,000 barrels to 1 million we will plug that gap. this is difficult with the war in europe and heavy sanctions and price to pay for that. we will do everything can do to

there it is enough supply. the price of gasoline is down a little bit from the last two weeks of prices going down we peaked at $120 a barrel two weeks ago. we're down a few more dollars to below $110 these will fluctuate we want to make sure that the president is calling on congress and the states to reduce the gas tax. >> congress said it is a non starter. we will see. finally before we go, amos, you work for the state department. the state department is reviewing the pipeline from canada into the united states. has the president endorsed keeping that open? >> kayla, the state department is reviewing that. i can't share. >> when will there be a decision >> i'm not sure. we will review and go through the process. i'll let you know when i know. >> back to you, seema. >> kayla, thank you.

oil now at $115 a barrel stocks accelerating losses in the pre-market dow down 250. coming up, lawmakers sounding alarm over farm land bought by one company with ties to china eamon javers shows us more "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment

growing concerns in america's heartland over 300 acres of farm land bought by u.s. company with ties to dhchi.

the company wants to build a corn milling plant the army base feet from the farm land, this is raising eyebrows all the way to washington, d.c ja eamon javers has the story >> this is grand forks air force base in north dakota, home of some of the nation's most sensitive technology, including the rq-4 global hawk surveillance drone and this property sits just about 20 minutes down the road more than 300 acres of prime farmland earlier this year, three north dakotaens who owned parcels there sold this land for millions of dollars to a subsidiary of a chinese company that says it wants to build a corn milling plant now the transaction has come under scrutiny here in washington, d.c. where some in the intelligence community warn that the deal should be blocked because it could offer chinese spies unprecedented access to the american base.

it's an only in america kind of fight. pitting the property and economic rights of a community against national security warnings from high ranking officials in the nation's capital. the chinese company at the heart of the controversy is the fufung group. based in shandogng, china. its american subsidiary says the company is not a threat. >> we're under u.s. laws i'm an american citizen. i grew up my whole life here, and i'm not going to be doing any type of espionage activities or be associated with a company that does. >> the city's mayor says he just wants to do business >> it's a $700 million plant that would really be the largest single investment in the city's history. the fbi, you know, didn't say there was any immediate concerns they said if you see something, say something. >> the air force hasn't taken any official position on the chinese investment but an air force major composed an alarming memo in april obtained by cnbc, laying out what he believes to be the intelligence threat.

he wrote, some of the most sensitive elements of grand forks exist with the digital uplinks and downlinks inherent with unmanned air systems and their interaction with space based assets the air force says major jeremy fox was only speaking for himself but he's not the only one with security concerns in a report released may 26th, the u.s./china economic and security review commission wrote, the location of the land close to the base is particularly convenient for monitoring air traffic flows in and out of the base among other security-related concerns. that's why senator kevin cramer says he opposes the project in his own state despite the economic benefits it might bring. >> i think we grossly underappreciate how effective they are at collecting information, collecting data, using it in nefarious ways, so i would just as soon not have the chinese communist party doing business in my backyard. >> both the chairman and ranking

member of the senate intelligence committee told cnbc they also have concerns about the chinese development. now, the city won't build out infrastructure until next spring, and the mayor tells me he's moving ahead with the project in good faith, but he also says he's still waiting to hear if the federal government has any official objection, seema. >> eamon, this is a is fascinatg story to think they could use the farm land acquisition to spy on us. what are the land owners saying? >> i talked to one of the three that owns the land he thinks this is overblown and this is not amounting to anything ultimately, this say global economy. we have cell phones in our pockets made in china. he says where do we draw the line he sold for $2.6 million and a number of other people in north

dakota sold land there this rocked grand forks. the man who sold the land said he has been threatened by neighbors. people have been signs in his yard this is a very unpopular decision some say they want to do business and it is a global economy. >> eamon, thanks on deck, a tough finish to the rocky first half of 2022 taking shape rbc capital's amy wu silverman is laying out the bullish sentiment. if you are not signed up for cnbc pro, join today for a special price. head to cnbc.com/projuly4 or scan the qr code on the screen we'll be right back. and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years,

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eastern. weekly initial jobless claims and the may consumer spending report and the may pce expenditures shanghai disney is in focus. reopening and earning continue with constellation brands and walgreens and micron. and let's get the look at the final day of the quarter the dow now down 350 points. stocks facing a tough first half, but not every trend is doom and gloom ask our next guest who is seeing bullish sentiment with options activity amy w wu silverman at rbc capitl amy, layout what you are seeing right now. why are you bullish? >> it is interesting this is kind of a continuous

theme, seema, the lack of hedging and lack of demand protection and some pockets act of bullishness. we sweep across sectors, we are seeing people start to buy upside and in that long duration tech we have seen it in china we are seeing it revert back into energy as well he things are changing because derivatives market is tactical they are starting to pick their spots. >> what do the derivatives market tell you about the performance in china >> we are seeing the positions monetize i think what happened is when you look at the covid lockdowns and the issues with the supply chain, sentiment got bearish and it did make sense if you look where there could be stimulus

and growth where the lockdown ended. you talked about the shanghai disneyland reopening where do you see those drivers that is why you saw ashr and kweb and we are seeing call and call spreads opt in the options market. >> morgan stanley came out with a bearish note on carnival and what it could mean for spending going in the next couple months. how would you be trading consumer facing stocks >> one thing we've been talking about a lot is really the next big meaningful catalyst not just for derivatives, but earnings and when they kickoff in earnest. there is an interesting dichotomy. you have not seen that much hedging with the lack of demand

on the index and etf side. you are starting to see that pick up on the individual stock side i think it gets bigger and bigger in eerarning season. stocks have been really blowing through the move implied that happens in a sector like xly. we need to know about the state of the consumer. if we go to the down side, we may get a target or walmart situation. >> netflix is the worst in the stock picks. it is down 70% could this be a value play in time >> yeah. it is great question i think the russell 1000 considers it a value play. i got moved to that index. if you step back, that is

amazing. this is a big faang name that we always watched now a value stock with facebook. what happens is for investors, they are value players, then you while see plays into that name i think for appropriate portfolios, it is interesting to sell puts to owning the position at lower levels if you believe valuations to be attractive. >> what is the year-end target for the s&p? >> that is the purview of my colleague, lori. i have to tell you, she has a harder job than i do i'll leave that to her. >> energy. buyer or seller here >> you know, our commodities strategist are talking about the fundamental tightness that remains in the market. we are seeing that inflection point happen in derivatives. i would say there is upside to

energy even with what happened again, you are seeing that happen in the derivatives market with the calls and call spreads. >> amy, thank you for joining us amy silverman. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. i'm seema mody "squawk box" is next there has to be someone here making sure everything is safe. secure. consistent. so log in from here. or here. assured that someone is here ready to fix anything. anytime. anywhere. even here. that's because nobody... and i mean nobody... makes hybrid work, work better. wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi?

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good morning welcome to the final trading day of the month, the quarter and first half the year. futures pointing to a sharp drop at the open. we'll show you what is moving right now back in the soup. including the price of bitcoin plunging who's wagging who? the s.e.c. rejected grayscale application for the spot bitcoin

etf. now grayscale is suing. spirit airlines delaying a shareholder vote i downtoid the interview yestery we find out what happens, mel melissa. we will find out what it means for jetblue's bid. it's thursday, june 30th i think this is the last day of june 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from nasdaq site from times square. i'm melissa lee here with joe kernen equity futures are setting up as joe mentneth