>> yeah. what would you think might be the proper price for it at this point? >> at this point, anything in the neighborhood of 30% off of that high that we saw last year will be a reasonable price for me at at the point of entry right now, it just feels like investors absolutely. >> it is paid over the years. thank you very much, nicole. that now does it for overtime. fast money begins right now. right now on bass, the brutal first half of 2022. you have to go back to richard nixon for such a rough start of the year. the question now is are there now some beaten-down bargains for investors to up? plus betting on brazil. we will get the options back on my traders are filing into the dwt. it has dropped more than 27% this quarter. so why are traitors so bullish on this fund? later, once in a generation buying opportunity.

cryptocurrency will be a great buy at the right price. this is fast money live. we start off with a trip back to the 70s. not the gogo disco era. but the era of surging gas prices and watergate. in the last time the markets kept dropping at the start of the year. the s&p 500 closing out its worse first since 1970, dropping more than 20% already in 2022. again today, they closed off their loans. but yield kept falling. tenure yield spending most of the day at 10% is the first time since early june. historically bad run on the bus, how do you say yourself over the second half? >> this was an ugly, ugly quarter to put the lease on it, especially when you think about

every crash. usually you're getting a dynamic stop selling off bonds and rallying. this dumpster fire, by the way, looks a little bit like what is going on for you right now. but we will leave that part of the show. this is a case where falling today. as we go to the third quarter, they have historically actually been bad news, good news for stocks. let's see if we are there. i don't where there. in fact, i think the bond market might still be volatility for investors and not necessarily a place to be running, especially as we get credit circulate in light now. as we have seen over the last couple days, this is a place with the recession rallies in full force. they look expensive, and some don't look that cheap. >> i agree with what tim is saying. i think that we are going to see volatility, which is one of your letters, more of that. but i think this sort of soft landing seems less and less likely, right? i still come back to the idea that a recession and data that shows recession is not the end of the world, right? as we always talk about it, the markets re forward looking mechanism. i think that when we look back

at exact, of these things that as terrible as it was for so many sectors, and every sector in 2000, there was a lot of wheat to chaff, so to speak. i think there is still stuff to buy. i'm looking for cheap stuff in good shape. i look at something like av tv, which is a value etf. things were just really cheap, and they are not going to fall out of the park, but -- >> that they will. that is the history of the market. when you are buying things on value after things have just collapsed, you know what i mean? they get cheaper. that is the hard part. we will spend a lot of time, i guarantee you come over the balance of this year talking about how to land these things and risk management. does a really important aspects of it. you are a value investor. there are very few people who probably know how to identify value as well as you.

just because something is down 60, 70, 80% from a high after we just had a mania in the stock market, large parts of the stock market, does not mean -- >> i'm not saying that's what you are implying whatsoever. i don't have a long-term time line in. that is going to get ugly. >> and earlier banks. the make this the thing. why we had such a disconnect last year and in the lead up to it. no one felt that was natural, but you had the ptsd, because that's what you did in that rate environment for so long post financial crisis. a will say that as we think about how the market closed into the quarter and the first half the year, you said the worst half that we have had since 1970, there is a couple things were very troubling last couple months. the fact that we had our performance and energy and staples, and utilities use in these defensive areas, the way that they collapse. i know that a couple of the staples and utilities bounce

back a little bit off the road, but they were down nearly 20% from their high in very short period of time. the way the energy has collapsed, xle just the other day, it better hold that level. there are some things that really make you feel like things are going to get nasty. the last point i will make today, j.p. morgan, new 52 week lows. target, new 52 week lows. it was like pronounced year. that does not make me feel that excited right now headed into qt. >> i think there are things that are done very well that i'm equally as scared of. i want to point out computer sables. i wanted to crafting 45 times. i wanted to kellogg's in general mills, names that are really crushed it. to me, i would rather be cashed and own her she's at 35 times right now. that is a dangerous part about this market, and we've had a lot of defensive sectors which don't look very defensive. >> to that point, a lot of the stocks that were labeled something or no longer those things there anymore because of their runoff. what was once perhaps the popular value maine actually have the multiple that a growth

stock would have, and vice versa. what has gone into the value index now? >> that's it. i think this is where damage is going. valuation is a that relative to a lot of things. relative to five year historical. also relative to where interest rates are. those value metrics of yesterday are totally irrelevant, because rates are not at zero. they're not going to be a zero. they have inflation, and the front face of the ft says that central banks are going is that as of today we are no longer in a low place. no kidding, edb. >> brian kelly, what you think about this? >> yeah, i mean my base case here is that we are going to be grown through these periods of kind of peak inflation, recessionary hope, and that is what we are seeing in the market, but i don't think inflation goes away. i think we are in a long-term inflationary stat place trend, and that is very terrible for.

you guys are just talk about 1970s. 1970s, the stock market did not bottom until 73, 74. we are a month from the peak here. we instilled out sometime. not only is about price and value, it is also about time. and i think that the probably most appropriate thing right now is to sit on your hands. because if you don't have a soft landing, we are certainly not getting economic acceleration. that was a third option, which means none of these things are priced. if you don't have a job and you don't have money, you are not buying hides and hunts, you are probably buying storebrand. no frills. >> and i asked bk question?

bk, what you see. we see some commodities rolling over. with a lumbar kind of rolling over. we have seen copper come in, do you think that is that we will rise again, or it does not matter, they are so high anywa ? what you think? >> yeah. first of all, for the og viewers, i kinda feel like i am on the prop desk with all of you guys on the desk. like wow, it feels good. but anyway, i do think it is a had steak. i think if you look at all the commodity markets, they are very tight. we have not seen china really reopen it all, that would be a lot of commodity demand there. not only that, you have stuck structural issues with the commodity market where it cost more to get these things around the world because of the ukraine issue, now i think we are probably close to the bottom. to me, stuff like copper looks

like a place i want to start picking at, gold certainly looks like someplace on the start picking at. oil is a little trickier, because the other refinery issues. i can actually see gasoline higher and oil stay flat, because you just don't have any place to put it in a swap market. and i look at those markets, you get any inkling of demand from china, those things are off to the races again. >> i want to go back to the conversation we are having about valuation and what valuation is at this point, you mentioned historical valuation at 15.5 the tenure historic. in this sort of market environment, do you use that as your benchmark? what do you use the benchmark? >> you are saying 15.5 on the s&p is a multiple of your historic? >> i don't think you can. i think it is a function of what kind of earnings, tailwinds, headwinds you have as well. 15 times again relative to the world we had for the last five years is actually very, very cheap. in the place we were saying it 20 times with rates

of zero, we were getting the kind of growth we had even in the first half of 21, that was not a terrible number. but again, think of some of the biggest mega tech stocks and some of the trendiest docs over the last couple years. now 43% in the second quarter. was never cheap, but when it was trading at 55 times for the kind of growth you are getting, also their exposure to gaming, their exposure to crip though, their exposure to sectors that were really seemingly high growth leading sectors, your really willing to pay more for it. that is just a function of market dynamics. to me, there one of the second half stops that i don't think semis are going to start to suddenly turn around tomorrow. it's i really don't. i think one of your check marks for starting to see only had a bottom, we are starting to see semis bottom. that is very different to me than a lift or goober, which destroyed in the second quarter. i don't really change that much in the second quarter. >> you say 15.5, with what is the tenure? >> i guess it depends on, it is

just an average pe at does not give you a average context. >> we don't have the contacts, but i bet that it is lower still , 15.5 is actually on the low side of what earnings should be. but we had a different place in the cycle. where should earnings be? i think you brought up another point, one of the other things we think about is pe relative to itself. that is important. i think that sort of plays in our company is growing or not. b look at something like a meta- , the pe to itself is below the bottom of where the chart is. >> in attendance been doing this much longer than i have, i would say that in my experience i just had to. it really is a moving target. it really does not matter other than an inflection point. when we are about to have that pivot, when the fed started pivot last year, people are paying 23 times the s&p 500.

they did not care then. now they care the whole way lower as they are trying to get them out when the market will stop going well, or when they will make their next move. it likely overshot the upside. that multiple. people are going to scream about it being too cheap in the low teens. but stocks will continue to go lower until he have a change in earning deficits going forward. they are just too cheap, then they are like 12w■3 times, that is too much. it is a tough way to trade. i think the market, which is why think you want them focus on stories. you want to focus on sentiment to gets way overly to bearish on the downside. we know you're out there. we are going to let you in. the bottom line here is that it is a case where cash levels are high. pessimism levels are high. sentiment levels are low. these are things that put you in it decent position going the second half, and these are things that despite the fact that investment bonds had their worst first half of the year ever these are situations that i think you set yourself up for

decent place in the second half. >> the trophy market has seen a wild ending to the first half. let's bring an on-air editor, rick santelli for some context. i thought the 10 year bond had its worst half with 1788. i know that you were not around. i'm not trying to make a joke about that. but that is a long time. i am wondering if you could give us the context in terms of where we are for yields here to the support levels? and what you think are the fundamental drivers of this point? >> my own feeling is that we could not, in many ways, seen with the runway is going to be for the fed. the high rate, the normal normalization rate is going to be around 3.5%. if you look at a quarter today at two-year, very close around 245 yesterday, 243 on a high close mid-june. look at quarter today chart on 10. they got up to what, 348? 349 on a closing basis?

mid-june. i think 3.5% is something definitely to keep in mind in terms of the fed and what they need to do. they have a lot of extra help the most people don't even know about. it is big news the nobody talked about that the reverse repo facility, the parking lot for all that money, reach 3.2 trillion. big deal. what does that matter? that means that the fed tightened again. how. blaming the fed tightened again? where do you think most of the money in the money market and most of the cash in the entire economy? you know where they all going? they are all going in that parking lot. $2.34 trillion worth. that money used to be in margin accounts that were only stock positions, or in accounts for only treasury positions. but now, basically it is that no duration, no credit risk, you get 155 basis points and it is just drawing the money and.

i think rates are going to suffer from the economy suffering, and the economy is suffering. i fully suspected and 3.5 weeks we are going to have a very second load second quarter gdp. it does not look all that terrific. finally, we will get burned. we could learn a lot from boone. on a quarter today, but they closed at 144 today. less than two weeks ago they were 177. they closed the quarter at what, 55 basis points? i guess what i'm saying is treasury yields to zoom, and sovereign yield of zoom, but now they are all starting to flow back down. that is the part we need to pay the closest attention to, and truly that feds can talk as tough a game as they want. inflation probably did peak. that does not mean prices are going down. that is going to be the new topic in about nine months. >> hey rick, it is bk. you set me up vertically on the inflation. there are a lot of studies out there that will say with inflation, let's call it if it

gets there. but even safe it gets down to five or 6%. the federal reserve, the tv, all the central banks of said look, we want positive, real rates. if prices stay the same and or go up a little bit, and we have cp, cpi coming down to 5%, but still it 245, the fed will have to waive an awful lot more just to get the real rates they've artie told you they want. the positive real rates. >> you know, i want to ferrari, but i'm probably not going to get one. the fed wants real rates, ecb wants real rates, risk bank once real rates, but in the end they are a lot more realtor levels you are talking about. it was over negative to inflation, than they were a few years ago. i think the issue that is going to dominate that thinking and strategy is going to be jobs, jobs, jobs. i think we are still clinging by string on creating them, but i think the runway for that is getting really short. >> this is sam. you are the guy who knows the

answer to this. we hear all the time of the foreign investors in the bond market are going to run for the door. our dollar, your problem. our treasury market, your liquidity. talk about that. if that ever changes, so the senecal factors could outweigh the fundamentals. >> it is something we have always worried about since day one, and now we are aiming in various directions, pointing at entities that we are pretty sure not going to be stepping up to the plate. like the federal reserve, probably not going to buy the qe days. i still say at the end of the day the u.s. markets are the best, cleanest shirt and dirty hamper. refuse those analogies and metaphors over and over in the last seven, eight, nine years. but i think foreign interest is going to resume, and i think it is going to continue. even if it drops down, and the

japanese are my biggest worry because the japanese probably are not going to be able to afford to be such great customers, but in the end, if you look at all the investments in the japanese zone, ours are probably the only ones there making money on right now when you consider their stock market beef 44 years ago. >> is always great to have you on fast. good to see you. >> thank you. rick santelli. >> your point, basically, is that if we don't see any progress on inflation, the fed is actually an easy rates going lower. the heads are going to have to hike a lot more. >> that is exactly my point. the reason why is that i think they have already lost the fight on inflation. the bif had a great report out last week where they talked about if you have a 20 or 30% rise in commodities like we had in the first quarter this year, inflation a year from now is 1% higher. so we have already lost that fight. we've got government stimulus

checks coming from europe, great britain, california. likely here in the u.s. once we get the midterms. demand is not going to go away. you're going to have the demand out there. you have tight markets, and prices are going to go higher. the lower that rates go, the fed has told you this. we want real, positive rates. that means they want the interest rates to be above the rate of inflation, and i don't think they care about jobs yet. at all. that is the government's job, they are saying. i think they're going to have to raise interest rates an awful lot to try to tame this. >> i get the bif study that you cited, but how did that job with a five year breakeven drop to levels we have not seen since pre-pandemic? that indicates that the inspected inflation is actually going to be lower. you have the set up here where maybe historically you have seen inflation play out, but then the expectation that we are seeing right now price in the market is that inflation has actually peaked. >> right, but i would say they are wrong about that. this is exactly -- >> back in the 70s.

>> that is where we are at. we are in this stack inflation environment. >> and back in the 70s again. bk had the hair wingback. had class when she was on. he had the big lapels. >> platform shoes and a onesie. >> the point is that the fed is going to have to toe the line. we've been talking about this deflation environment, where the fed cannot be cutting rates anytime soon. the problem is that the inflation is value from commodities, it is from the labor market. the labor market which structurally has not changed, and i think there are a lot of really mportant social things we really cannot factor into where labor is right now. the labor had to go higher. that is not dead-end. that is anomalously sticky, and it is inflationary. >> coming up, bringing the

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welcome back to fast money. we are reporting on micron. got the details on the outlook, writ which is really lower. >> christina. >> is in reverse course a little bit in the past hour. this is in the site getting down 22%. you have the regular supply chain inflation, all headwind mentions on the call, but the company did say covered controls in china hurt their outsourcing and assembly business. china revenue is down 33%, and that caused a 10% drop in consolidated companywide revenue. that is having an impact on their q4 guidance. now for the business channel. the company data center, auto to support dram as well as memory chant cells, both of those categories are already showing signs of weakness. the comments right now are adding to concerns that system

and is slowly starting to dry up, and the customer inventories are bloated. micron ceo predicts the customers will adjust their inventory levels in the second half this year. speaking of demand, the company is forecasting pc units will drop 10% over the year, and project smartphone unit value to be down mid-single digits also in this year. lastly, management is getting aggressive. they said they plan to walk away from business that does not meet the pricing objectives. they also said right now they like the chair price of micron, and plan to repurchase shares more aggressively in q4. >> thank you. at a time when the set is actively trying to weaken the man, microns and customers have too much inventory on their hand. not a very good combination. >> they also serve obviously a lot of end markets that hopefully pull four during the

pandemic. we are likely to see kind of a reset of some of that. obviously automotive, there is a lot of industrial applications for a lot of the product that is really important, but your point, inventory is really high in a product like this, you will see weakness in the underlying pricing. just as far as the stock is concerned, that is a big guy down. those are some of the things you want to see. you want to see companies not to death by 1000 cuts, you want to see some big chops. that is maybe a reason why the stock is recovered a little bit in the aftermarket. listen, going back to 2018, the stock was cut in half at one point. it's only down 46, 47%. but not too long ago, it is probably not going to bottom right around here. it will bottom from lower levels. >> but it has not had this pe in seven years. i think the reaction to the stock is really interesting. let's say instead of putting this out two days ago, pronouncing because they are going to be at a conference. i think it would've gotten a far worse reaction. i don't know how much. >> in the past couple days, i'm sure it sold off.

they could end up at the same price. but it certainly feels different to have the stock down a buck and change. almost feels like a really big headline miss. >> to me, the best thing in these headlines, and they jump out of the page to me. smart unit sales expectations have declined meaningfully for calendar 2022, and the unit klein by single men. this to me is the story. this is the story that we wanted. again, i want to hear it. i'm sure it sounds perverse and somewhat vindictive, but i need to see apple tell me that sales are coming down. i need to hear the demand was pulled forward. we have not heard that yet. we need to hear that. and micron is telling you that it is going to happen. >> have to take a break. much more fast money coming up next.

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>> welcome back to fast money. major averages closing as s&p finishes its worst happened more than five decades. that index more that than 20% down this year. the dow setting more than 15%. nest egg was nearly 30. by this market pain, traders are still finding some opportunity out there. we asked them what is the one name one should ongoing into the second half of this year?'s tim, what do you say. >> i think i get three answers,

so i kind of cheated. i said disney, is at walmart, and i said alibaba. let me defend disney for a second. the company that to me is trading back to before they even had a disney plus business, place before they even really ran into some of the dynamics around either people questioning whether leadership was or obviously we have reaffirmed from the top the company has been split into pieces, were essentially of distribution versus studio, then you have theme parks and what not. i just think evaluation, and is one of the great companies. this is the kind of name you're picking at. the valuation to me, very undemanding. the balance sheet has been repaired at disney, is a fit for me. >> sam cohen what you say. >> i think what we're doing disney makes a lot of sense. i don't want on this one right here, but i think is going to be one of the make up cap stocks to bottom when the market does bottom. that is amazon. one of the reasons the stock is been hit very hard compared to some of its peers, is because they did get the benefit of that pool forward in 2020, but in the kind of overextended.

we kind of keep hearing about the logistics and the distribution centers in the hiring, that sort of thing, well, the stock is telling you that is a problem right now for evaluation. at some point they're going to get leverage on that. they will cut people, saw some stuff. i think to me at some point that amazon was down about 46% or something. it is jesse's first year the ceo of this company, and he's ever missed our performance, not great. i think he's going to have a moment in the next five years that he is going to look like tim cook. i think buying this thing cut in half after the investment period is going to make no sense, but i do think another lower, and there is another leg in the stock. >> just looking at it from here, what is going to happen the next steps? do you want to not lose money? do you want to make more money? those are two different things. however, put it all together, for me it was decaf farmers. not just one answer, but they all tend to move together. just the idea of we have relatively cheap valuation,

high dividends, and you have a product that customers really need. it is going to be the last thing that they want to give up or have to give up. several i think the space is not overvalued, and that is where i want to be. that is where i am. >> you just bought a little bit of ali baba. tim went off the charts with that one. quickly on ali baba 10, can you just give us elevator pitch for that? >> this is not a pe story, even the people start talking about some of the growth numbers the last couple quarters. they've grown to the low teens. so what? this is a company that is down two thirds from its all-time high. this is a company that has been dismantled on so little. i spent a lot of time rushing back in the day. this reminds me of one of the russian oil companies that had their ceo thrown in jail and they took by the company. this is china's version of

that. i think that gun control and the way they need to. i think this is still one of the most important tech companies in the world. forgetting the fact that china's economy is getting as much tailwind from the macro from the government as any other, i like ali baba. i think the worst is over. >> really excellent point. it depends on what you're trying to do. do not want to try to lose money? do you want to try to make the most money? i am choosing door number one, i don't want to lose money. i don't want to buy anything for the foreseeable future. i look at all these things and think we still have downsizing here. i already laid out all the reasons the beginning of the show why, but micron brought up something. they will buy back stock. i'm not talking micron going to stop paying back, but i bet you all this buybacks, remember we had a hold period of time where they issued credit at low prices and buy back their stoc . that game is over. nobody's even talking about that yet. i have no buyers here, and inflationary impulse, i don't know, there is a time to fish and a time to pray. bk is going fishing.

>> you heard the traders pics. the chart master is now here to give us his takes on one of these pics. what do you say? >> well, the one that most appeals to my eyes ali baba. let's look at the charts and try to figure it out together. so we have, as referred, a stock that has launched a tremendous amount of value. $319 in october 2020, and it made a low just recently in march at 73. that is a 79% decline. the next chart, let's take away all the lines, all the arrows, and it is clearly downsized. but the current action, you can see it in a little bit of a curl up. that is what is important. so we add a tram line to that, what you will see is that you are starting to move about the trend. there that i have drawn is just exactly that. we have established that 79%,

and now strength very important to most equities. relative strength and correlation. and then another chart, the exact same chart yet again, instead of the automated actual trend line, we used automated. the average is now inflicting. if you draw the line that we saw on the preceding chart, you allow the moving average to measure trend for you. it is all the hallmarks of a irish to bullish reversal. >> goodness for karen and tim. i want to talk tesla, because you had a provocative callout on tesla. we are expected delivery numbers for q2 over this weekend, analysts are expecting growth for the first time in two years, especially because of the china lockdown. what do you see? >> look. this is a darling, it was a darling. less of a darling. the question is after dropping 50% if they could somehow take

care of, or is there more risk? with more risk, let's try to figure it out. first chart, we have a trend. i did not make the line fit, that is the land. we broke that. no one noticed that after breaking trend, we have we call equilibrium. another way to do it is to actually highlight, you will see right here, was known as the diamond formation. it sounds kind of wonky, it does not matter what you call it, it represents equilibrium. after a great selloff, down 50%. the debate is on. some people step in. should we buy? should we sell it? but usually you are resolved in the direction of the primary. you have a sharp selloff, you have the debate, equilibrium, buying, selling, is a good, is it bad, is it finished? then you have the second downline. presumptively, that is what is coming. you will see her over the next chart a measured move. the rate of this type consolidation is about 170 points. leaning to project down another

hundred 70. it takes you to as low as $450 a share. here is the remarkable thing. lustrous but this all in context. in the beginning of the year at a price target of $1200 a share. 50 analysts. they have reduce that number to 900. so they have reduced their estimate for this stock looking forward by 30%, but the stock is down 50. usually price action is ahead of analyst estimates. we think the price keeps getting weaker, you will see further revisions to price targets. >> the context of the sharp tesla job dropping or predicting, sharp market drop as well. >> i suppose that would be convenient would make sense. but in many ways, tesla is idiosyncratic. this can happen even of itself and have nothing to do with the market. surely, generally, tesla would participate.

>> thanks, good to see your, connor braxton. dan. >> i will tell you this, psychologically if we're going to see it is idiosyncratic. we are going to say all that stuff, how much positive sentiment as to what wrapped up in this thing that is down more than 40%. i will say there is a date and time, and a price. november 13, 2020. the s&p announced they are going to add it to the s&p 500. the stock went from november 13th 2022 january, it doubled. it more than doubled. i think it round trip back to 400. i know that sounds kind of crazy on the charts. that makes sense to him. i think that would take a lot of that overly exuberant sentiment that has built up in this period. i actually think of the quarter are likely not to be particularly great, that might be the end of it. >> tesla was at 450, that was shaken up. think of how tesla had been for so long, and still is for so

some sense a barometer for retail. the most actively traded option in the united states on any given day. that is a lot of retail trade being driven. if it breaks or 50, that may be a good flesh. >> i think is going to be one of the last battles fought. let's not forget that it is about 4.3% of the nasdaq right now. it was maybe 5.5, six at one point. you cannot tell me that if that has that kind of a move that it is not influenced by the overall market. >> coming up, time to t beon brazil. option traders eyeing some action in south america. we will tell you how they are playing with a submerged market. some had a particularly bad start of the year, far underperforming the s&p. one of our traders saw opportunity in some of these first top lagers. the name went fast when he returns. clear money

>> welcome back to past money. check out the ew in brazil. the ew closing at its worst quarter since march 2020. the emerging markets trade continue to struggle despite the option trader making a big bet that brazil could bounce back of the action night. >> one of the big bright spots today. ew traded at more than -- over 2-1. one of the areas we saw

some activity with the july 28 calls for institutional buyers. one trader paid about 50 cents a contact. the buyer call is obviously betting that there is some potential upside over the course the next two weeks. >> is there an emerging markets expert in the house? we will go to you. >> somewhere. brazil has out performed the s&p for the first five months later. down 20% over the last month. the drivers to this trader obviously commodities and dynamics. your 22% of that eps and petrol. i often think the currency as it often is an emergency markets, with $20 year run, if you get some weakness in the dollar that is a great backdrop. ian m overall, outperformed s&p by 20% the last three weeks. >> will see you tomorrow for options option. we're closing the book on a rough first half of the year. netflix came in dead last. one of our traders is niggling

on the struggling streamer. plus, a struggling day for crypto. it going dropping. brian kelly says we are close to once a generation buying opportunity. more on that straight ahead. that's money returnsnn ovation tu customize interfaces, char. and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back. [sfx: street ambience] ♪ ["fly me to the moon"] ♪ ♪ ♪

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>> welcome back to past money. netflix is the worst performing stock in the s&p, down 70% this year. one of our traders was nibbling on this as well as a handful of other first top dogs now. that trader is, i feel like this should be a drum roll, da . that is a total surprise. >> i said last week when i bought a little meadow or facebook, less i thought it was to cover a short period of i feel the same way about netflix. the stock is giving you tremendous opportunities to buy them when they are down. over the last five years. i think and usually when you can look by 2022, there will be another guy down for netflix. another guy down for staff, from meta-, for a bunch of these names. but you have to start somewhere. it is hard to buy stocks when they are in this downtrend, and i know that is one of the major

goal of investing is don't buy stocks when they are in a downtrend. i just think that when we come down out of this., i think that some of the leaders are presenting the opportunity to make extra money in the market where the nasdaq 100 is only up 100%. that is what i am thinking about longer-term a name like this. >> you guardian it. >> the story here is i think a valuation that you can defend. all this dynamic around the password sharing in all that, at first that is a negative, but it is only a positive. even if they don't convert one of those people into an additional subscription, you are still at the same place you were. we have always known that the growth for them, it was very saturated. this is an international story. the death of international tv. is still a secular trend. people are going to be straining more tomorrow than they were yesterday. and this is still the biggest player in the world. i like the evaluation. i like that they have to force

cash flow positive in profitability. they did not have to do that before. they will have to play by the visuals now, i think that is positive. >> i want to go to you. you have been known to have put it in your top core stock and leave it there for a very long time, so although you say that you would not necessarily by equities here, is there anything in that drawer right now? or is it empty? >> it's empty. he completely emptied out. my drawers are empty. i mean look at netflix, right? i agree with everything you're saying there, but like dan just said, he could drop down another 50% and then you might double your money. why not wait for her to be down 50%? and then i can triple y money? >> by the way, that is going in the year-end are. my drawers are empty. coming up, generational buying opportunity encrypt the, kelly said crypto is reaching a key moment. do not go anywhere, we are back in two.

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below 20,000. cryptocurrency about a close at its worst quarter since 2011. according to the most recent delivery off the stock survey, investors not expecting to get much better in the second half of the year. our very on bic one dollar think that could be a generational buying opportunity coming for bitcoin. but not before and even further drop. let's be clear, not now. down the road. how far is that road? >> yeah, i will give you my lawyer answer. it depends. it is good news, bad news scenario. the good news is that i do think we are getting a lot closer to a generational bottom. the bad news is that it might not be until bitcoin hits 10 grand, and by the way, the catalyst for it is going to be as inflation expectations pick up and every central bank in the world is making a policy error. that is not a world i am always that excited about living in, but here i am. and i think if you get those three combos, a final flush out

of all the leverage and bitcoin down to 10, 15 k, somewhere around that, and inflation expectation is picking up, which i see coming in the next quarter or so. we artie know the cycle back is already made a policy mistake, and is likely to continue to do more. that is the perfect scenario for a bottom and bitcoin. now you have it, we just have to wait. >> eddie that price decline would be simply the flushing out of leverage the crypto community? >> a lot. i think a lot. there is still a lot of leverage out there. there are buyers, the last resort out there. but their bids are 99, a penny on the dollar. the buyers are out there, it is just not a good level. >> her we had a lien and moment for this industry in terms of leverage? or are we months away from that? >> we are probably months away

from the lien and moment. meaning that kind of one lap flush down, somebody big goes bankrupt that you never expected, we are probably months away from that. we just don't know. there is still a lot of leverage. collateral pledged against collateral elsewhere. it is a great financial crisis for the crypto world. we built wall street 2.0, it did not work again. shocker. we have to flush that out. >> we are out of time, you are still short. >> i am still short. >> for more on crypto, be sure to tune into a special kryptonite in america. up next, final trades. pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities for investors in every market environment. so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds

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final trade time. bk. walmart is back to pre-pandemic levels. i think the business is strong.

it is one blankets for value stock. alibaba. welcome to mad money. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to educate, but to teach in and entertain. first we are told is crypt