lower consumer spending. some are in the middle income or higher. >> apologies for the breaking news from gm. i want to wish both of you a terrific 4th of july. we are in the red, 63 points down on the dow. joe, hope you have a ball. >> margarita night. >> it's crypto night and margarita night. join us on tuesday. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good friday. welcome to "squawk on the street." kicking off q3, kind of how we left q2, futures are red. the two-year yield down 60

basis points in ten days. a road map begins with belt tightening. facebook pairing meta as zuckerberg warns this could be one of the worst downturns we've soon in recent history. >> plus, kohl's. >> and weakening consumer demands. let's start with the market. from a microcorporate standpoint it was nike, then bed bath and-ih. >> in a sense the companies are confirming a lot of the apprehension and they're saying that the markets in gem, as you mentioned the two-year yield is

much more concerned about the magnitude of a slowdown, especially in a week when fed chair powell said recession is the feature, in the bug. the side effects of the inflation medicine are having a pretty significant impact. the big question is how much has the mar account already figured thatis cut in happen. valuations have rationalized. stocks will be down a bet but not dramatically. we'll see if that can be something of a template for how we digest what will be a

messienings season. >> goldman said the being quit market is still high because investors are pricing in a mild recession. then you have that tweet where he is saying that the selloff is halfway over and we've soon a compression in multiples but haven't soon it am earnings. as we look ahead to the next weekend, we have tepid trading volumes. those will ramp up. >> maybe halfway there. with that we had atlanta fed track q2gdped the break evens lowest sips october. en it-year in september. can we tart to think about a

down turn? >> i think so. i think there's the character of what a downturn might be. meaning, will it have the full effect that a typical recession has had. we had a tight labor market, theoretically excess job openings. you do have the balance sheet in the same situation. the bond market can declare victory on inflation and say it peaked. the fed can't act. >> the month they do, they unwind all their good work. >> or this will seem as too late to see what growth is looking like. i look at the michael burry tweet. i think it's becoming what the mantra s we've heard it on air all the week. the way it works, the valuation

going down is the market's way of saying we thingennings the earnings are coming in lower. so it's a tough one. it as where it has it be. credit is a little bit of an issue. the credit market is acting like this macro picture is getting stressful. >> gm is a big story, was halted a few moments ago. you heard the news, kind of has some dovetailing with the micron. good morning, phil. >> the chip crisis, we now that it was going to be hurting deliveries in the second quarter but general motors is

saying it have 95,000 vehicles that they built, ready to ship to dealers. many have been preordered, presold but they do have the chips necessary this finish the vehicles completely so they can deliver this to the dealer. the six here is in the auto industry it is not a sale, you do not book revenue until you deliver it to the vehicle. so that's 95,000 vehicles in sales in revenue that general motors could not realize or will not be able to realize in the second quarter. nonetheless, the company expects to deliver them by the end of the year and have the same full year. so this does not change but if terms of the q2 sales and delivery there's impact there but overall sales down 15%. the estimate, according to edmonds was for sales to be down 17%. so a let lit better.

keep in mind, carl, the street was expecting a decline of 17%. bottom line is they continue to be restricted. there's far more demand than there is supply have you new vehicles. >> as for tesla, it will open higher. we had delivery numbers cut by citi, web bush. is there a sense they can hit the mark? >> well i think everyone is listening at tesla. china was pizzazz in a disaster. you have this bring down the numbers. they have started to ramp up production. look at the volume

they have in china right now relative to tesla. doesn't moon they can't catch up. some believe they will have a portfolio at neil but right now it's really, really low volume relative to tesla. >> we'll talk soon i imagine. the latest tech company to cut its hiring plan. zuckerberg warned it might be, quote, one of the worst downturns we've seen in recent history and said realistically will are probably a bunch of people at the country who shouldn't be here and looking at a hiring target in the 6,000 to 7,000 range where they came into the year with 10,000. >> engineering talent has been difficult to find in silicon

valley. when you look at meta, stock prices have fallen so much. in order to be decompetitive, it's difficult. they are taking this seriously. they're taking the potential for a downturn seriously and it begs the question, which of their big tech peers might follow. >> one of their best ideas. reuters had a similar story about comcast. according to a source, calling it the best commitment since come cast acquired nbc. >> i think the economy and i think the general feeling around the fact there's a retrenchment going on gives a company like meta are mission, essentially to say we are no

long are in rapid growth mode. we have a platform that investors love because it's just automatic. it's like the google search box. why do we need tens of thousands have you people doing things around it. that's the way the market would love for the company to hispanic about themselves. you can see say as demand is softening up, we have to pull in how much greg it will be. >> we talked a little bit about elon musk and tesla as well. if you don't want to come into the office, you can find employment elsewhere. seems liking it and some of the higher growth companies are looking for ways to trim costs now. potentially we'll see more of a

falloff. >> laying off without laying off. >> 72,000 employees at meta right now. >> wow. >> there's been a lot of retroinspection about q2. the least bad was staples and utilities. >> so far, it as been painful to anticipate that month when we said enough is enough. so far the leadership is classically defensive and very bore. pharma is cheap and steady. insurance has worked pretty well. that's kind of a direct yield play. they can make money on their bonds. i think there are right now you

can say it's gone far. i was looking at the multiple. it's gone from 28 to 14. consumer staples is premium. that doesn't account for amazon and esla taking over so much of it. is it cheap? is it fair value. did they stop in the middle or have to overshoot. that's where we are at the month. microcaps have fallen behind relative to small caps. we're backing away from risk. we're not embracing it. we think it's not the moment to get cyclical again. >> is there anything to be made of historical press dense. there are two years where it

has declined. there were massive rebounced, rebounds. is there anything we can glean from that, looking to hold on to something. >> first of all, small sample size, i think what you could say is markets never go down in a straight line. they tend to have a little bit of recovery, certainly where the calendar gets more friendly. 1962 was a good example. it was a nonrecessionary bear market. also, the peak was at the start of the year. 1970, we were down a year before we got into this. i don't know if i want to thing

on well, history says we're going up in the second half except there will be relief along the way. either the slowdown is not coming through as much as we thought or the fed will be forced to turn friendly again. >> or maybe the midterms means the relief comes later. >> that's what the textbook says as well. recent midterms haven't adhered to that. >> after the break, we'll hear from the cruise lines. will caribbean, carnival, norwegian. 'ltawel lk about some of the fallouts on pcs and data centers and the long bond. a lot more squawk on the street. that's straight ahead.

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joining us with his outlook, patrick sholes. patrick, good to have you here. the travel trade did reverse hotels and cruise lines. people are worried about this concentrated demand and falling off. does this make sense? will that come through in terms

of the companies' results. >> i would say there's less concern about hotels and more of a concern about cruise lines. overall obviously leisure is strong for the summer, for the fall, for hotels, maybe a slowdown as we get into the business travel season. locking at the back half of the year, it remains very solid. >> the cruise lines have, perhaps pricing has been an issue and capital structure, what they had to do to stay in business. what's your outlook for the three big ones? >> certainly it's been

challenging. it will be challenging for all of them. we have a ton of capacity out there and not enough pricing power to fill the ships in light of the fact oil prices going up. i remain very concerned about the group, especially in light of major refinancing coming up. for example, royal caribbean has $8 billion in debt coming up in the next year and a half. at this point i can't recommend any of them. i don't have buy ratings on any of them. >> presumably much higher refinancing rates for them. just looking in terms of potential catalysts for this

group. what happens when vaccination and testing gets dropped. >> those would be huge positives, especially dropping the vaccination requirement. unfortunately, it doesn't seem like it will be happening this year. if there's a little bit of luck it might happen perhaps the middle of next year. yes. if that were to happen, it would be a positive but it's not going to happen this year. >> cruise lines are positioned as the value option. is that going to be of many help, the fact that we have more concern about spending in the second half of the year? >> yes. that's absolutely true. even today, they are an

exceptional value. again, the challenge is demand took a huge hit. you're coming back from such a low base. it will be hard to get enough dehand in relation to where we're starting and next year 25% more. demand is really going to have to pick up from here on out for these companies. >> does not look like a clear path. thank you very much. appreciate the time. >> thank you. coming up in the next hour we'll talk to dallas cowboys owner jerry jones, some

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post results worried about

weakening consumer demands. smartphone sales and pcs. >> these consumer markets have been impacted by the weakness in china, the russia-ukraine war. it has exas pay exacerbated supply chain issues. several customers are adjusting their inventories. we expect them it take place in the second half of calendar year 2022. >> he will join us on tuesday. 5312 will tack upback to the

fall of 2020. >> recovery could be well into 2023 for this stock. i'm curious on your take. we talk all the time about how it's strong in the u.s. you can in the areas affected. if i'm looking at the market reaction, this is a massive revenue miss. it's $2 billion. the point is you have to scale that with how the stock is reacting after being down 43%. the areas with most weakness are those we knew. it shows you that the inner play between what the markets were bracing for and the actual

news this doesn't always overlap in too many. $7 a share. again, it's already done a lot. >> let's get this opening bell out of the way. it's deloitte celebrating. we officially get q3 underway. the point about the damage already being done, try as they may, the analysts couldn't get him to say weakness. they did say on data center we're seeing some wanting to

tear back their memory and storage inventory due to storage and macro concerns. it's a lot about the fallout. >> that's very true. there is an echo being and the since we've seen peak cycles. the market saying you're going to have to wait. you mentioned 2023. it's less than a year away. obviously, we're in this period where you're downscaling for what growth will look like. semis, certainly not a leadership group as they have been before. they have not been given the green light but down 0% is 40%

you contrast that. now it seems like the issue is on the deand side. >> the one this morning we haven't yet mentioned is mcconnell, yesterday threatening to hold up the chip sack always of the partisan schumer-manchin on the reconciliation bill if we're going to sacrifice onshore production. that will affect the industry as well. >> a longer-term issue before. it as mostly their on money but they wanted the backing. it seems look a bargaining chip. we don't know with we're

tacking about -- the maneuvers on the reconciliation stuff, how strong that is. >> the economic counselor talked about it. take illisionen to this. >> the most sophisticated ones as well as our everyday objects that we use -- cars. the appliances that we use, manufacturing, farm equipment. if something happens in taiwan, we are in trouble. >> nobody wants to see a world with the reliance on taiwan. >> all the ditch policies coming out of the overall

inflationary picture. >> it's an interesting dynamic, not to expand the semiconductor story but it will be interesting to see what the slowdown/recession looks like. 30 years ago coming into this business, economists were flummoxed. employment doesn't really erode that much but also on cap x. do we feel there are these longer term priorities we have to fill in terms of building up capacity. the big shop was lack of capacity. >> did you see that op ed in

the "wall street journal," rising rates with have on the ability to expand production. a good use case for those that believe it's not the time to be raising interest rates pause you need to be encouraging companies to grow faster, further, if at the very least national security. >> you hope interest rates aren't the factor this will choke things off, becoming stingier. you have to be on alert of, again, squeezing the capital market in a way that we haven't seen. >> we talked about the cruise lines and maybe retail, calling off the sales to the franchise groups the owner of the vitamin

shop. these q2 sales down. they were down mid-single digits but you're being paid to take that risk. >> i mean, this has been a very messy process from the beginning. they initially rejected the bid, researchers saying it was too low, ultimately going into talks with franchise groups at about $60 per share. they lowered that to upwards of $50 are share and ultimately couldn't consummate a deal because it has deteriorated so much and they couldn't get the financing to make this happen. now they're doing an

accelerated buyback. see what happens. >> got picky about the price point. you know. kohl's itself, if you will to cut it, it's a quarter billion dollars a year. it's look fix the business and is where it settles from there. for a decade, the lack of financial transactions. it seems like real estate was the back stop and it hasn't happened obviously because of e- commerce. are a not seeing legs in terms

of other stocks getting hit. gals is up a percent. best buy. >> if anything, bed bath and beidea was a bigger warning sign and obviously more of a procarous situation than kohl's. one of the key pairs is in private equity. >> absolutely. >> and private being quit has gotten burned by and large. there were others in the mix. i think that's reading between the tea leaves. it's because it's a riskier deal and private equity, they're pairing this back because they've son this

before. >> that is interesting. by the way. it is interesting to see. right behind etsy. we know it as structurally underhoused, maybe lumber gets cheaper. the ten-year, 288. so. that's a big part of it. it was almost a 3 1/2. are a taking the rate hikes out of the two-year horizon versus what we thought. the projected fed month in six

months compared to 178 months and it never had this sharp of compliance. starting in six months we'll have peak rates. that's the way the market is position. >> interesting. >> we talked about commodities but there's been this bifurcation. they are in the green. you've got wci108. gas prices have come down a little bit. >> i try and game. it we have a hybrid. if i'm filling up my tank, i want to get a good deal.

>> we are coming off a losing month of crude. gasoline, you should be seeing some relief. as i said yesterday. find a new gas station. kla, amat and then, hook, amd and video. qualcomm. it's in the just about smart afternoons weakening but pcs down ten. >> the slowser you are to that, this will be the biggest impact. >> they held up so much better on the idea perhaps that there's something sec collar going on that you can he is scape some of the gravity.

it shows you people aren't willing to pay up for the idea at this point. >> saw a wave of price cuts from analysts cutting prices of bank stocks. that came out of wells fargo, piper sander and all of those shops announced a whole slew. stocks not responding too much to them, a bit lower in free market. you can see jpmorgan, morgan stanley, relatively unscathed. >> the market cap now as we've said, a little more than three quarters of a billion dollars. a couple of johnson and johnsons. in retail, we're going to see some resolution and whether or not you're tacking about deals of pennies on the dollar.

>> fire sale. the best microcosm is looking at the performance for the first half. bitcoin down 60%. the dollar up 9%, one of the few gainers. when you look at overall risk appetite, a few things tell that story like the divergence between the bitcoin and the dollar. >> this was a paper wealth effect that fueled a certain kind of spending. the whole nft. but on the other piece, is it systemic. are their links. is anybody going to be caught out. what's happening to the deleveraging product. it's in the leak you're seeing holes being blown in the hull. i don't know.

you have to wait. >> looking at fed total assets and bitcoin. it's that top number, then what happens to bitcoin. maybe this is just beginning. tonight on cryptonight in america, maybe we'll get more answers on the knowledge of the asset. >> he said at the conference a few weeks ago he thinks there's a query range between the fact inflation is higher than a long time ago. that's why you were seeing bitcoin come down and we'll see it go higher again, kind of a different take just on the fed balance sheet, so the fed balance sheet hesitates at all time highs and crypto goes down 60%. are we saying there's some kind of dollar for dollar relationship? i don't know. >> a lot of disagreement on

what bitcoin is tracking. we are 60 points to start the quarter. good morning, bob. >> a bit of a flattish open. everybody's watching their 10- year yields. the ddb, metals etf a 50-year low. energy still up. consumer staples. discretionary spending doing well. you mentioned the home builders, they're helping the s&p 500. we got a lot of new lows led by microns. we got new lows in video, research, advanced micro as well. we have the whole pivot from

inflation and whether we have a soft landing. everyone has been waiting for these downward revisions toeings. the estimates are still quite high. the only reason they're this high is because the oil numbers are moving. for q3 we're looking at 11% and q4 still 11%. these are higher than april 1st. the only reason they're this high is because the energy companies are pushing them up rather noticeably. so we got this 10% and a lot of the todown strategists saying the s&p could have another down. i want to update you on the second half of the year on the ipo. i've been covering ipos for 25

years. we had the second quarter of 2021 and we had a 95% collapse year after year. we had that in 2008, 2009 and in 2002 but those were after down years. when you get over 25 consistently, it's a major, major problem for the market overall. so the problem here is we've got to get the vices now. how poor is the performance? lousy. we only have 11% of the ipos

trading. 11%. typically you get 50%, 60%. that tells people we're going public. holy cow, we capital did public with that. it's an emotional head wind. there's a lot of great companies, though, just sitting on the sideline waiting to go public. one of the big ones is mobile eye. we've got a huge chip designer. instagram is big grocery delivery platform. we have discord, popular with the gamers, a voice chat service. that could have a $10 billion plus and there are oroville withins. reddit is there, the big social media platform and travel port, distribution for the travel industry. there's in shortage of

companies but in this kind of valuation, it's difficult. guys, backing to you. >> we'll see you in a bit. >> still to come, don't miss our exclusive interview with the owner of the dallas cowboys, jerry jones. as we did to break, let's take a look at the bond report. we talked about the declining yields and the long bond. the dow is up 160. we're back in a minute. how will your business adapt to change?

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>> reporter: well, leslie, the reaction has been positive, especially in the state media. also on social media there's been a lot of discussion about the 25th anniversary in fact the #about it got more than 1.5 billion views, all praising the fact that president xi was there, and the fact that hong kong has been returned to china in the past 25 years so the other significant event here is this was president xi's first trip outside the mainland since the start of the pandemic nearly 900 days ago. he took a special train across the border to hong kong where he swore in the new chief executive john lee, who is seen as a hardliner, who had overseen the crackdown on protesters in 2019. president xi addressed a lot of concerns that the business community has had, both the business community within hong

kong as well as outside, saying beijing was committed to supports hong kong as's rule, expanding linkages with the world and promoting markets and development. at the same time, the repeated positions worrying some of the business community, carl, such as the need to restore order from chaos >> what a remarkable week in china this week, eunice, thank you. after the break, we're going to check in with art cashing, and talk about how to best pla the second half of the year for trading.

good friday morning. welcome to the second hour of "squawk on the street. david faber has the morning off and morgan brennan is on maternity leave. q3 begins with a little bounce, as we get more disinflationary signal from some corporation are corporating.

>> we're 30 minutes into the trading session here three big movers, starting with kohl's shares, tumbling with news they're until talks with a sale the stock is down more 19% chip maker following a lower than expected sales outlook. that stock down more than 4% right now. micron's ceo sanjay mehrotra joins us next week to discuss in more detail. investors continue to monitor what's been a volatile housing market, yields taking a breather >> about a half hour into trading on the first day of the quarter, the dow is up 99, ism

manufacturing for june came in new orders, contracts, 49.2. employment contracts keep an eye on that, as you see stocks come in construction spending is also down let's bring in art cashin to talk about the data, the impact on the market, certainly yields this morning, art. good to see you. happy friday what do you make of the seemingly quick shift to now focusing on growth >> yeah, i think the market is sensing some surprises it's been a very frustrating week, carl as you may recall, the end of quarter rebalancing was going to give us at least mild plus tech

closes, and we didn't accomplish that at all. and we had to struggle to get to the -- so i think the market is trying to interpret things i'm concerned about the dip in yields here. you know, it would be great if, as everybody said, commodities are going down, a hint that inflation may be cresting, but they're moving down a bit too rapidly for that there's still a sense that there's a flight to safety, a feel, whether it's in the bitcoin our some other area, that we may have the risk of a structural surprise here i think that's what they were worried about. i keep my eye on bitcoin to stay above 18,000 or else, and then on the charts, you have to look at things like apple, tesla, and see where we go from there with the s&p, if we get weak, heaven forbid, the 37 areas is

something to watch. i wonder if i think crypto is large enough at this point to pose larger out-of-asset class type of risk to the broader market >> i've been in this game over 60 years, carl surprises don't always come from the area you're looking for. that's why they do call them black swans, okay? totally unexpected the trouble with the bitcoin thing, i think you saw of a bit of it yesterday. there were vague rumors about people not meeting margin calls. by the end of the day when some numbers came out, the trouble seemed to be too small to account for the billions of selling that we saw yesterday. i think there's a feeling out there there's a shoe to be dropped. i shouldn't say the most

obvious, but one of the most likely areas there in surprise, because there's not enough data about it is cryptocurrencies >> art, obviously we've been doing a lot of talking about the markets, where they stand relative to the calendar, how big of a slide we've had in half a year, compares it to long-ago market cycles. does this one feel like any of those to you, whether it's in the 70s, early 60s one of these cyclical moves that seems to come country kind of in a hurry? >> yeah. certainly as we've heard again and again, the similarity to 1970, which interestingly was a midterm election year also, and as you brought up, 1962, i was here in swaddling clothes then, but the u.s. steel and steel

companies raised prices, and kennedy remarked that his father told him that most corporate heads were sobs, and that looked like the president was going to go head to head with the market. when that then caused was a pretty big selloff in those days in march, and we bottomed out in june so there's that similarity, however, late '62 we had the cuban missile crisis, so we could do that if you don't mind me saying so, carl >> art, i want to get your thoughts you mentioned your flight to safety, the fact you're concerned yields have fallen so rapidly goldman sachs is warning of a renewed risks in equity makers saying investors are only

pricing in a mild recession, so they're not looking at a super-negative case, that unless bond yields decline, due to recession fears, equity valuations could decline even further. what do you think the market is pricing in right now, and do you think it's what it should be pricing in >> i think they are pricing in a mild recession i think that -- take this with a huge grain of salt, you're asking me to suppose what might be surprises i think -- remember when we went into covid and they went over backwards to try to cushion the blow, one of the things is if you couldn't pay the rent, don't pay the rent, we'll make it up later. if you can't pay your mortgage, that's okay. if you actually can't pay what you owe on the car, that's okay. so i think there is a lot of

potential in foreclosures we're not springing forward. i think any sense of tightening up, you can't get the market looking at auto repossessions, or maybe new problems. one of the key things we look for in the inflation numbers is the equivalent of rent that's been sticky and that could be a problem i think if that got pushed around by thingancies or foreclosures, that could be a problem. if i'm looking for things where nobody else is looking, i think that's where i would go. we're wringing our hands about the consumer, but some have pointed out confidence numbers have been weak for a year there's an added argument there's a lot of untapped equity in people's home, do you think that will act action any ballast?

>> i think many of the pundits and some of the market players are looking at it as such. i think it's one of the reasons as brutal as the market has felt, it really hasn't been -- people keep talking about what kind of great shape the consumer is in, that it's going to reserve savings, you can handle things i throw out, as i mentioned in my point to leslie about looking for the unseeable, maybe that's not as all as good as it looks like it may be that you'll see that pitch coming in, and if so, i would look to see it in mid to late july, somewhere between the 10th and 25th, somewhere in that range. so let's keep an eye a how those results come in, see if they keep spending. i would like to recommend that an old cashin tradition, people

think about spending by having a fifth on the 4th >> that was going to be my last question, though can we have two this year? >> i think we may need them, carl >> enjoy the weekend and the fourth, art. >> you too, and all of yours the company ends lawrence thomas broke the story first she joins us now to discuss it so, lauren, how did this latest chapter play out that we had them, you know, walking away from the table >> yeah, definitely. this is kind of a culmination of what's been months in the making, dating back to almost last year when a number of activists got involved at kohl's and started to push for a sale of the business, as ultimately what i broke last night and what we learned this morning when

kohl's confirmed, is that it has concluded the talks, and it's -- the board unanimously decided the best path forward is as a stand-alone, still publicly traded business. now, what was really interesting. kohl's also put out an 8-k filing with this news, really day by day, it gave us a timeline how this process has shaped off we have seen various prices thrown around. most recently franchise group made a proposal of $53 per share, which kohl's said it was nowhere knee what it had been looking for. at one point we were talking high 60ss, even $70, so i think there was disappointment on kohl's behalf with that. the company cites both the current retail environment and

financing, really trouble pulling together financing we just saw wall greens earlier say it was no longer going to sell the boots business in the uk, so one of the -- it's going to be kohl et cetera real estate a huge part of this was being financed, this deal with franchise group, was going to be financed think real estate essentially they were going to sell the real estate and lease it back. that's something that kohl's in the past has been very against it hasn't wanted to pursue that type of deal i spoke just on the phone a minute ago with the chair of kohl's board, peter bonaparte. he said that is now on the table. it's something kohl's is going to consider moving forward kohl's has about 500 stores that it leases today, but it owns more than 400 locations.

>> they cite financing concerns as being an issue here, but i think people would argue you have this lucrative real estate, why not do that transaction, lease it back to the company did they just find that untenable? is that something we should just take off the table moving forward? well, we'll see what happens in the future >> yeah rgets exactly. i think if you're antisell/lease back as a strategy, it puts tore leases as a liability on the balance sheet, and then you ultimately have to pay rent to whoever owns the rea estate you could see it as maybe dragging the business down, but peter bonaparte said the way the markets are today, plus you look at how kohl's stock is traded, now it makes more sense than it did maybe a year or two ago,

especially pre-pandemic. appreciate that very much. what a story, just one of many as we go to break, take a look at the road map the rest of the hour jerry jones will join us you don't want to miss that. plus chip stocks, biggest laggards across the s&p. it may be july, but winter is coming, at least when it comes to cptryo. why our next guest thinking it might be a good thing, after the break.

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crypto prices tumbling, for the week, bitcoin is down 9% after turning in the worst month on record. ether is down 14%. here to talk about whether there's more pain ahead, cumberland global's head, chris zolke. in the last week or so, we have seen hedge funds, crypto lend ers others in the ecosystem, potential pursuing fire sales, the fallout from the crypto collapse appearing tore here my question to you, though, is what inning of pain do you think we are in? is this all that's going to happen and things will rebound or do you think there's more fallout to come? >> a great question. i think, at least in the

centralized organization space, there's potential for the known lan /unknown it seems that we've found some stability. you can contrast that with the defi space the concentration of for ethereum is somewhere in the range of $600 to $700, which is a healthy spot the important point to remember is these lessons are lessons we have had lenders just like our parent company -- in their bankruptcy, we're seeing market participants recognizing cumberland's ability to liquidatethe collateral the have, and as a result of that

backstop, the market beginning to feel more confident to weather the storm and find that baseline it seems like there's light at the end of the continual, and the market that is learned the lessons it's need to learn to manage risk programming. >> if we're inning 7 or 8, what happens in 8 or 9? >> your guess is as good as mine i think the important point here, though, is the market is recognizing that sound risk management policies and procedures are important a lot of the actions that needed to be taken to stem the tide have been taken. we're seeing a lot of the risk management principles be implied to the lenders and borrowers while it takes time to work it out, my expectations is over time, as the market becomes more and more confident, those sitting on the sidelines will start to reenter and enter at a

bottom point there's exogenous concerns as well so even if the crypto market does everything right to replayoff the rink, we still have to contend with the fact that markets are in a vulnerable spot. >> a lot of the rethink, a lot of the premises of the crypto boom on the way up, putting that aside, the parallel effect was, institutions adopting this asset class to hold, to trade, you know, whether it was going to be useful for something else, it was an asset has that been set back at all, base based on the fact it did

not -- or do you think institutions will still put it on the menu? >> you know, what i can say is what we hear from the institutions that we work with, and time and time again, what we are hearing is what's happened over the past three to six months is not deer terr those organizations that continues to build up as a matter of fact many of 9 companies we talk to actually see this as an opportunity i notice it sounds straight to talk about an opportunity in the midst of what's happening, but as with any innovative technology, there's a key explosion of people trying to improve on the innovations, to try to find the right fit. that's not dissimilar from the internet we saw, where once the cat is out of the bag, many people invest, and the contraction that follows is natural. it allows organization to lean into those ideas and build

around them. as the noise gets reduced people are allowed to find a policy to adoption of the process. the pace at which that will happen will be different from organization to organization, but at the end of the day, the builders are still building. that includes drw and cumberland we're pretty excited about what the next year or two years will bring us while we work through the market volatility. >> but there's no secret that any regulatory disapproval is not a good sign for institutions that have been waiting for more acceptance unfortunately we're out of time. chris, we do appreciate your time thank you very much. >> thank you. tune in tonight to cnbc's

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chip stocks continues their ride lower this morning. the etf ticker smh falling more than 5% this week, on pace for the fourth negative week in five, the worst proply performance since 2008 in june kristina partsinevelos joins us with more. that was a very, very tough quarter for micron. >> yeah, it was. it was a tough call to go through with the ceo, but it's one of the worth performers of the smh after the grim outlook estimates for the remainder of this year may be too high. they are don't go away from a 32% drop from china, weaker demand, the company also warning

that manufacturers are pulling back on memory and storage which will company cap-ex take out? >> keeping of equipment manufacturers, evercore points out that applied materials, only traded about 14 to 15 times forward earnings, and a lot of bad news is already baked into the shares, all of those are in the red today. another big mover is taiwan semiconductors, it records that numerous customersare reducing the wafer orders including amd and apple. taiwan semiconductor shares are down more than 6%. mike >> nobody really escape the pain so far, should the results be

seen as a warning? that is where we start with stacy raiskon. how does it make out from here you can look at micron's coattails and say there's still more reckoning to go, but weather with >> what we are sieve so far are multiples, one silver lining is that's even more than we typically see. typical cycle, multiples come down by a third. we're down 40% next is estimate cuts. that's -- they want to be estimate cuts, because they're worried expectations are too high s none of this is unusual this is the typically progression, but that's where we

are. we need to get estimates come down micron is the first one to take a major structural cut to their numbers, we will see what happens going forward, but my guess is it's the first one we've seen, probably not the last, but it needs to happen. >> does it pay in my parts of the industry or any particular names, to try to anticipate that moment, or say that a lot of that's already reflected in the rag ways pals are coming down because they don't believe the earnings you mentioned semicap earlier. semicap is getting some angst because of some of micron's comments

they are trading cheaply, pricing in probably lower levels, than where i think the consensus is for that. within the broader semispace, i would say we haven't seen brought panic, but there are a few names where maybe we are starting to see something more akin to panic. much lower than the pre-covid. they just -- they've gotten many, many growth drivers. they were already measured for the expectations than they are weak, like pcs, and it's trading

at -- it's pre-dough individual trough was 24, and there's -- it's probably eight other nine times on their sort of longer-term outlook, so that's one where investors could be sharpening their pencils if nothing else. >> i want to ask you about the china equation here. that was something that sanjay mehrotra called out on the call, the issue become due to weakening demand over there. is it due to the fact that there were shutdowns in china and it has reopened sense don't discount those shutdowns certainly if you're locked in your apartment you're not buying pcs. and it's also a question of what our descriptions there are what

are the ports and logistics look like they are very, very different to get a handle on. in a recession, levels come down, we're coming off some of the strongest demand levels in history. we'll just have to see at this point. >> stacy, thanks a lot a quick programming noel don't miss an exclusive interview with micron's ceo sanjay mehrotra, tuesday, at the 9:00 a.m. hour. jerry jones will be with us, and his big bet on natas g the ten-year is slips below 2.8.

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here is your cnbc news update ukraine now says 20 people, including one child, are dead after russian missiles hit a residential area a u.s. diplomat attending the first day of brittany greiner's drug trial in moscow says the u.s. basketball star tolder she's keeping the faith. for the first time since china started advocating -- with no sign of any protesters in the street, xi says political power must be in the hands of patriots the always outspoken owner

of the dallas cowboys jerry jones has notched another big win. he took majority control of comstock resources four years ago. since then his investment has more than doubled, comstock far outpacing the s&p today. joining us today is jerry jones. i still remember the day, we talked about what you saw coming i can't imagine you counted on everything that has happened since. >> you always need a bit of unknown as, but you certainly did see that there in 2016, when we really opened up exporting natural gas, when we opened that up, then if you look back at it,

how do you get as close to where it's supported how do you get as much positive deliverability, how can you do all those things and have some gas. we are sitting on of the export facilities in the u.s. we really do have an impressive amount of the gas in our reserves. >> it is remarkable what europe has done to the whole equation, even in the face of slowing growth i noticed the u.s. is shipping more to europe than russia is shipping in pipes. how do you see that situation evolving is there any chance a geopolitical solution would have a downward effect on price

>> all of those things need to be considered when make an investment the issue is -- also the capital but also the time that it takes to get it in place, literally get the gas in use so you really do need to get that there's ups and downs in the marketplace, but if you're solid. in other words, in our case, if you do have the cheapest way to produce natural gas, maybe in the world, and if you have it located where it can get to germany, then that's an asset worth taking some risk on. on a personal basis, i know that the billion one that i have invested in comstock, outside of com comstock, i've been investment in independently drilling gas.

so i think if you can be where the rocks are, if you can have it cheep, aggregate it to a point where you can put it out there when people need it, yet hold your own when they don't need it, that's a good place to be, and that's comstock. >> jerry, are you hedging at all? just as, you were mentioning, it can be volatile. >> well, leslie the best way i know to hedge is not to owe any money. since i have had com stack, i've got doing everything we can with the balance sheet. you don't have to have the $9, $6 gas to make the balance sheet

work i chose comstock because of where it was located, how it could deliver the gas, if you had gas to sell, but one of the big things i chose about comstock is the integrity of the management they're honest people and have been honest for generation one of the things appealing about a public company, to make this kind of investment, when you're with the right people, i know what they're telling you is correct. that's a being deal. then you can have the confidence to swing for the fences. what i have done since the day we arrived is try to get that balance sheet down to where we don't owe any money. we're projecting that we'll have a billion of '22 and '23, and w can be down to what we owe is minimal would you have our cash.

to me that's where you want to be, then the play is the commodity issue in europe as well as the united states, but more important lid, you have the rocks, you have the supply, you can turn it up, turn it down, that's the way we're playing the game >> also, i know in the latest quarter, comstock lifted its capital spending guidance, trying to spend more to produce more, presumably how do things look in terms of that supply response in theory that the world is begging for? is there enough going on on the investment side? is there enough labor and equipment and everything at the right cost that we can move the needle on it >> you put your finger on it

can you take the dollar and produce gas rather than pay off debt we can, and yes, that's what you're address ing then you wan to get future reserves i think the strength of comstock is the future reserves it has great prospects, the most of anyone, frankly that i'm aware of those prospects are viable at $2.50, not $3, not $5, $2.50 gas. so that's important, because gas obviously does fluctuate the commodity aspect, but i feel very strongly we're in such a position that we will be able to have times when the gas price is low we do not have to be hedged,

because our bet is minimal >> do you think there's a point where prices good et to a point where the idea of helping out our neighbors, right, our european friends and allies is politically untenable, where americans demand us to keep that energy on shore and not ship it? >> i'm excited about what we can contribute i almost dream about freedom gas, the term freedom gas. i would very much aspire to be a part of a company that can supply a significant percentage of the gas to germany, a civic percentage of the gas to you were you say, jerry, is that arm waving it is not. economically we have the gas, we have the economics, we have the ability to deliver it. we will get more ability to

deliver it that's ngl plants, things in the future that take time to build, but they'll be able to be built because of people like comstock is going to have the gas in reserve though be able to supply those improvement facilities the blessing of energy security is remarkable for this country. one question about football. every year it seems the league has something to wrangle with, it's external pressure, clocks, revs,ings some argue now it's about snyder and the commanders. can you talk about what owners are saying about that now? >> well, i take issue that that's the focal point of the n

nfl. one of the things i'm proud of with the cowboys is our hr what we do with employees, we have about 600 people, which is not a big company, if you this i about it, but we're very sensitive to workplace, and you can look around the nfl and can attest firsthand to certainly the cowboys, but i can attest where the sensitivity is again, i don't want to speak to the specific nuances of the commanders, but i will say this -- get the politics out of this stuff, then you can go on and probably get a clear are picture for the public >> i see you're wearing your cowboy pin, as you were on the set years ago. congratulations so a great bet we look forward to having you

back in new york, soon take care. >> it's great to be on with you, i'm superstitious. i wear this in the bathroom. [ laughter ] >> jerry jones, thanks as we go to a break, shares of etsy, it did cut the predict target following an outperform rating from raymond james yet. etsy still dn ow60% this year. we're bulk in three. don't go away. hey businesses! you all deserve something epic!

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comcast business. powering possibilities. we are taking a look at lgbtq plus representation on corporate boards. the proportion remains paltry, especially when compared with that of the broader population, only 26 out of 5670 fortune 500

are held by out lgbtq plus individuals. that is according to a recent report by out leadership. a rate of .5%. less than .5%. which would be even lower when accounting for the fact that the same individuals serve as directors on multiple boards. a big hurdle is that very few define board diversity as inclusive of lgbtq plus individuals. only 4% do. those who have recently changed their definition of diversity to include lgbtq plus include cisco, starbucks, and ultra beauty. sarah connor, the ceo of leadership, asked for more corporate resin representation. including lgbtq plus and diversity metrics is convenient. >> you want to de-risk, have innovation, diversity on board does not account for exercise. it creates better outcomes from a governance perspective.

i think we will only see that increase. >> a bit of an in. goal research to back it up. one study published in the journal of risk found that having visible lgbtq plus people in the upper echelons of a company is likely to contribute positively to performance. i think this is something we will see more of if we continue the discussion about diversity and what it means for performance and returns. >> it is not a unique point that esd is sort of the at the expense of the social goals of governance. it does parallel research that say those high scores in things like just casting a wider net, being more diverse in the upper end of the company seems to link up with better performance. >> that is a key part of it. there is the cycle in this circle where you talk to recruiters and you talk to companies and everybody kind of has to be on board with what it means to have a diverse board. you know? is it the way that you look to

lineup the pictures or if you dig a little deeper, can you achieve that diversity as well? >> some people are not cartoons. they're not avatars. they are human beings. >> at least in the meta-verse may be. >> that's right. there is a bit of a loss here to start the quarter, as you know. plmeve sent new orders, emoynt, backlogs, prices paid, all declined. ten-year big differential and met back in 285. the dow s&p and nasdaq, all lower. don't go away.

it has been a tale of two cities for energy stocks. oil and gas are performing well clean energy remains lack. more from the first half of the year. >> hello, it really is a tale of two energy sectors. that is oil, gas, and coal on one side. and new energy like wind and solar on the other. the divergence between old and new has widened this year. oil and gas stock has pulled back recently. it surged 27% so far in 2022 on the back of higher commodity prices. new stocks are down 37%, rising rates, location out of growth command policy uncertainty has been shared tumbling. so, i have run through some

numbers. accidental is a big a performer, more than doubling in 2022. valero, exxon and burton, all of around 40%. but clean energy names like sun run, cenote, sonoma, lithium americas, and pleasant power, all sharply lowered. analysts remain bullish. thanks to tight fundamentals. j.p. morgan, saying today that oil and gas stocks are the most attractive groups in the market. especially after the recent pullback. highest commodity prices could boost renewables as well since it makes them cheaper in comparison. meantime, supporting legislation sent an extension of the investment tax credit could also lift the group leslie by starting in the second half in the red across the board. >> we will see if we get any new reversion between those two spaces in the second half of the year. for now, very clear winners and loggers. thanks. appreciate it. speaking of the market volatility, we open in the red.

>> in the green. >> opened the green. futures were in the red opened in the green, now back in the green. it is just a matter of low liquidity levels. >> it is ism numbers, shortfall and new orders. that is a pretty, you know, widely watched typical indicator of the business cycle. that is giving a new bid into the growth slowdown trades. you can see the 10 year yield down 3.5 a couple weeks ago. that is where we stand right now. that will do it now. fact check starts now. >> good friday morning. welcome to fact check. today, two bellwethers of the tech ecosystem with warnings for what might lie ahead. shares come under pressure. two bellwethers of the ecosystem. mehta and mike shares. those guys are under pressure. i just said thank you for guidance for the chipmaker. the company is still searching for normalcy