winter developing story from washington president biden looking to cut tariffs on china. and flight delays easing, but not before the travelers ran into trouble thousands of travelers read that. what does that say >> monday. d >> that is a problem it is tuesday, july 5th and "squawk box" begins right now. is it 2022 good morning welcome to "squawk box." here on cnbc and on this tuesday after july 4th weekend live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm melissa lee with joe kernen.

we have a down open across the board. s&p looking to lose 20 right out of the gate. dow looking to be down 150 nasdaq down 179t this morning. joe mentioned the euro sliding 1% this story is something we are watching from the german import numbers. euro this morning. can we pull that up against the dollar a big chart. i guess we won't hit that chart this morning take our word for it here we go euro dropped 8% against the dollar this year $102.97. let's look at energy a strike in norway for offshore workers to reduce oil and gas output $108.86 is the level and check of cryptocurrency. bitcoin. went back down. >> it fell off the cliff with

futures. it was above 20 last night futures indicated higher this morning. >> and everything changed on the dime >> it is 9.99 correlation for nasdaq and bitcoin we'll get to the tariffs story. i am fascinated. this is a microcosm of the world. germany reunification. 30 years since that country had to import more than it exported for a single month they had a 30-year streak. a wordle streak breaks, it ruins my day 59 straight twice. on that day, it was impossible word cacao. c-a-c-a-o. i don't know what it is. it was a couple weeks ago. you know what is happening in germany.

they spent how much on green initiatives. no nuclear they signed a deal with putin and russia for oil and energy and now after 30 years, they got a problem. now possibly recession looming which you wouldn't be surprised at this point. >> the bright side >> there is no bright side >> okay. i'll be quiet. >> go ahead. >> we have actually seen oil and gas prices decline and rollover. hope that will ease it a bit it is still very high. >> i don't know if it eases for europe. >> germany imports 24% of its total energy is natural gas. much of it, if not all, is imported >> you know who i follow on twitter. you know the tweets i see. i saw one over the weekend trillions have been spent on

rene renewable. solar, wind. trillions. it is now less than 2% of global energy supply. could have spent a little bit on nuclear. could have spent a little bit -- >> diversification >> the good news is soybeans, too. >> everything. >> everything is rolling >> everything is coming down relative to highs. >> that should be good the weird thing in the journal we got 3% unemployment we may have a negative output for gdp two quarters in a row. that never happens it is usually the opposite. >> and high unemployment and good output where everybody is working hard i'm not sure what it means this is okay we don't like tariffs. >> no. >> under any circumstances we'll get to the stuff that

biden and bezos have been talking about. what is wrong with the profiteering companies >> if they only pay their fair share, all of the world's problems would be solved >> some of the companies would lower prices and stop profiteering >> pay fair share of taxes >> to a develop story. president biden ready to rollback china tariffs janet yellen held a virtual call with the vice premier liu today. eunice yoon is joining us with the story this morning what's the take over there on the possible move, eunice? >> reporter: the treasury department said that secretary yellen had laid out the u.s. concerns from the u.s. perspective, that is the impact of russia's war on ukraine as well as china's -- from what the u.s. believes, china's unfair trade practices

from the chinese, the state media and the various ministries, including the commerce ministry, said the vice premier laid out the concerns which are tariffs and sanctions and what china believes is a mistreatment of its companies by the united states. now, the american readout did not include a mention of the tariffs. there is a growing expectation that president biden is going to at least in an effort, perhaps, to fight inflation, potentially rollback maybe some of the tariffs as early as this week. this would be very difficult choice for president biden because a lot of the economists have said if there was a very large tariff rollback, this would potentially not have as big of an impact as one thinks barclays say one-time drop would

be seen. there are political considerations that president biden would have that he could look weak on china especially if china doesn't give anything in return so far, publicly, it looks as they china is not really wanting to cooperate a lot the foreign ministry today reiterated the stance saying the chinese position has always been clear. the cancellation of all tariffs on china will benefit china and the u.s. and the world trying to make the u.s. understand that china believes it has always been in the right. guys >> eunice, thank you eunice yoon in beijing in other news, jeff bezos slamming president biden over the weekend. responding to a tweet by the white house going after energy companies and gas stations inflation is far too important for the white house to keep making statements like this. it is straight ahead, misdirection or deep misunderstanding of basic market

dynamics >> exactly pretty good piece in the journal about that as well misdirection john kilby was on a network yesterday. he said the president knows what he is saying he is plain spoken no way that was either a misdirection or not factually correct. they are all on board. the journal points out they are all ivy league educated economists working at the biden administration. >> you have to wonder what they really think >> i asked the guy the smart energy guy i said to him, come on there's a time you are saying this stuff and inside you are laughing or embarrassed. he started willlaughing they know. it is too bad we try to put one

over on the american people. >> blaming everything. gas was -- oil was at $85 a barrel before russia invaded ukraine. it is not like things are rosy prices were ticking higher >> you know how many gas stations and what percentage and refiners actually own. it is less than 5% we're hearing about food companies. why are you making so much money? >> lower the price >> it sounds like jimmy carter oh, you see who liked it i think the chinese said some really -- did you see? finally you're understanding capitalism and all of the drawbacks from having a capitalistic system. chinese state media. flat praised mr. biden's tweet. now the u.s. president finally

realizing capitalism is all about exploitation he didn't believe this before. >> exactly what i want chinese communist party liking your tweet >> hugo chavez is applauding in venezuela. other headlines. tesla delivered 254,000 vehicles in the second quarter. that number is down 17.9% compared to the first quarter. below what analysts had been predicting the china covid shutdown is a key factor for holding back production based on the latest figures, warren buffett has overtaken tesla as the biggest electric vehicle producer have you seen lucid on the road? >> no. >> i saw one parked at a swanky country club they're really cool. >> i wonder if it was placed there as advertising. >> right

>> you saw it in front of a country club >> yeah. >> or if it belonged or if it runs >> maybe -- >> it's a display. >> bring in a flatbed? >> yeah. >> how much do those cost? >> no idea >> i would say it begins with a -- >> 2 >> or a 1 and change 1 and high change. coming up, katie stockton on the levels to watch this week. before we head to break, check out the pre-market winners and losers stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist wealth. where meaningful relationships matter most. how do we show that we'll stand tall through the storms?

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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are looking at a lower open this morning s&p losing 15. nasdaq looking to decline 57 points when the markets open at 9:30 treasury yields ticking higher across the board. 10-year treasury at 2.910. the 2-year treasury at 2.1908.

crazy. >> do they want me to read this? >> i'm sorry that would be me i love how you include the prompter >> got to do it. so they know >> so they know. >> bring them in >> you are part of the family. part of the process. i'll read about crypto headlines from the cryptocurrency world crypto hedge fund 3 arrows filing for bankruptcy on friday after spec list speculation it was insolvent. celsius laid off 150 employees t this weekend after halting the withdrawals. and coinloan is cutting daily withdrawals as well. nothing to see here. vauld is a platform backed by peter thiel is halting all

transactions it has led to $200 million of withdrawals in the recent weeks. crypto with decline in bitcoin which reclaimed 20,000 over the weekend. now $19,703. >> we'll talk about that bitcoin on friday was 19,500 it was katie stockton's support level until she said 13,500 was the next one >> i heard that. >> our next guest made many correct calls. joining us is katie stockton founding partner at fairle strategies katie, it looks like inflation is rolling over. when i say things like that, she is always like this, melissa i'm going like this. you are still like this today, katie? is that what i'm looking forward to >> i can't see you i have no idea >> i'm shaking my head left and

right. i'm trying to get a nod from you. bitcoin is back to below 20. it got in the 17s. does that mean it breached the 19,500 support do you now believe it is headed to the 13,500 support? we'll get to equities in a second in the past, you are not really sure who is leading whom or which is leading which >> correlations are very high here this support level is not broken it was tested and tested very hard it ranges down to the 18,500 based from previous resistance level. we're seeing consolidation that's natural around the support level. you are seeing the same from ethereum we assume the down trend will resume on the back of the

consolidation phase. downside momentum is strong on the long-term charts for bitcoin and equities as well >>ll right the equity markets are in that respite that you talked about that we could get during the summer is that what you think or only to be tested in the fall to new lows >> you know, i wasn't very impressed by the oversold bounce that happened. 8.5% upside from the s&p 500 over the course of a few days. then it just ends so abruptly. that is the character of the market this year, year to date we see the quick failed oversold bounces. that is a reminder of the bear market cycle that has a hold i assume that negative momentum will take hold in the near term. i expect that 3,815 level to be broken this month. that would put the next at

3,505. i think these are widely followed right now i would point out in terms of duration, we have a proper six or seven month bear market cycle. if you look at the indicators where they looked this bad, these periods were more like 12 months plus in the bear market cycle. i don't want to be premature in looking for the major low. we suspect things in line in september and october and a natural place to find an intermediate turn low. we don't have indications of that yet. >> is there anything positive, or negative, i guess, for the back drop? yields have rolled over. we feel comfortable under 3% at times on the 10-year treasury. is that reflecting recession fears or slowdown or could it be

something that allows -- does the fed work for it and maybe takes away a series of 75 basis point increases? that could eventually be positive >> it could. i think we're looking more sideways thanyields. if you look at momentum, it was strong on the upside it got steep now a loss of momentum not really meaningful. you see the moving average the 50-day moving average is flattening out that is due to consolidaconsoli. keep in mind this pull back while modest, it does follow a major reversal of trends it was a multidecade channel reversed i think we have to assume yields will forge higher from the consolidation. we are looking for the consolidation to be prolonged as

the gains are digested with momentum and sentiment >> all right katie, let's talk commodities while we can maybe that's the inverse of what we're seeing in the yields on the ten-y year. things are not positive? >> it is wild the dollar index is breaking out with the euro breaking down. that's not impacting gold very favor favorably. gold is 1,800 per ounce. gold is one of the last safe havens a place to hide when equities are going sour we hope to see gold hold that 1,800 support level. for crude oil. loss of upside momentum. we think that will persist it follows a steep up trend. something that is natural to see

digested gains and who is significant with the long or corrected phase. >> katie, why can't we take solace that gold has just been -- if this it is a '70s wage type spiral and heading into secular inflation, there is no way gold would be sitting here >> i can't speak to the macro. it is just sitting there it is really not moved consolidating near the support as it has done so, it has managed to outperform the s&p 500. it has acted as a safe haven preserving capital for folks that are not doing anything on the upside i can't speak to the macro. >> all right maybe there's something else that people could use as inflation. tips bitcoin is still at 20

close. it was at $1,500, people never thought of $20,000 it is down 70% and it is still up do you still think it is going to 13,500? >> short of the next support level. it is completely reasonable based on the momentum there and the duration >> easy for you to say not for people -- 13,900 is not reasonable for people who bought at 60. >> i have people interested in buying it. and equities people are eager to buy the high growth names i think it is premature. this bear market cycle needs to resolve the base phase it will not survive the bottom v-end fashion. we have to be patient. >> a lot of real companies whose stocks are down 70%.

that is where the whole bill gates and warren buffett ponzi scheme some day we may know speaking for myself. ka katie, thank you good to you have on. >> of course >> melissa -- >> it's my honor. >> five days this week five days. >> today or monday thankfully >> it is monday. 14 years, counselor. surrounded by people less than human. >> we need to go to break. coming up, berkshire hathaway adding to the energy holdings let's take a look at energy prices brent down to $112.15. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

welcome back time for today's executive edge du jour. middle east franchisee made a deal with pizza hut. they operate pizza hut elsewhere in the region and franchises for kfc and hardees. and the contract manufacturer citing strong sales by foxconn rising consumer sales have

raised concerns of sentiment remember what micron told us slowdown of smart phones and servers? >> yeah. broadband. all of those things would happen forever. people are leaving their house occasionally >> doing other things besides being on the internet and trading and watching youtube and streaming. >> we're in a pickle, i think, this country just depressing at times, isn't it you don't think some of that is social media do i sound like a cranky old man? >> shouting at the cloud >> something seems amiss i don't know >> yeah. there is certain behaviors we're supposed to never left house again. we're playing golf and visiting

venice with th goggles on. >> oh, metaverse >> the sights and sounds. >> especially not at 6:30 in the morning. look how quiet it is >> too quiet >> eerily quiet. berkshire hathaway added to occidental it bought 9 million more shares boosting the stake to 17.4%. coming up, phil lebeau is rle duryus to tell us how the aiininst did over the weekend. here is a hint not so great stay tuned >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera?

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the dow is down 135 points

we will see further action at the end of last week i don't know whether it returns or not katie stockton, we just had on, thinks the weakness she has been anticipating following an inter intermediate term bounce could come back to closer to where we are now. the fourth of july holiday weekend posing the latest test to the airline industry. phil lebeau joins us with the scorecard. i don't know where you are, phil there you are. all right. we talked about this last week are you at o'hare? >> i am. >> that was always planned i was hoping i would see you there. i mentioned that last week >> yeah. the scorecard, joe, for the weekend for the airlines, look, they passed. they didn't fail this was not a great weekend for airline travel in the united states friday and saturday certainly were very rough. it got better on sunday and

monday numbers from flight aware. friday all the way through monday is 2% of the canceled schedule that is roughly speaking under 1 out of 4 flights were delayed at least 15 minutes according to flight aware keep in mind as you look at the major airlines here. delta, southwest and united. they all trimming schedules starting july 1st. those schedules have been put in place. there is less frequency which should help and it helped over the weekend. especially as you got into sunday and monday. as you take airlines this is the story on saturday. they had a software glitch for the pilots scheduling. when they are trading and bidding out for future flights that had a glitch. wiped out 12,000 flights there was no captain or first

officer. eventually they got it going it was inoperable for a moment the pilots say this is emblematic of not investing during the pandemic. they are in the midst of contract negotiations. look at the ongoing bidding war for spirit airlines. jetblue and frontier and, of course, spirit spirit postponed the shareholder vote whether it will be approved or rejected is now scheduled for friday that will be the big airline story this week. what happens as they move to the vote does it get canceled do they work out a new agreement? we will find out this week >> phil -- >> ask him about lucid what does the top line lucid go for? we will get back to the

airlines >> i want to say 159 to 170. very limited edition. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> we have you you are a guy we can ask anything that's what we wanted to do. this is a story and i can't see why the airline story is not going to keep happening throughout the summer, phil. there is not enough pilots not enough anything. >> correct correct. it will be a rough summer. especially if you see a weather system pop up. that was the problem on friday it was a smooth day until 3:30 boom in atlanta, the eastern seaboard and a bunch of ground stops they did not last a long time. 45 minutes or 90 minutes that's enough. once you have that come in place, it may not be a canceled flight, but you will see delays. that's why we had after ebl num terrible numbers on friday sunday and monday fewer people

were flying and that helped and the system did better. >> phil, thank you phil lebeau. >> you bet >> at o'hare coming up, we talk jobs and what investors need to know about the labor market ahead of the friday employment report we will be joined by muhammad el-erian for his comments stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc from

small business growth moderating slightly. earnings growth slowing for the first time since may of 2021 giving you a glimpse of what is in store ma marty, good to see you >> good to see you >> we are seeing gains in jobs and number of jobs added it is the growth which is slowing. >> it is moderating slightly you are seeing strong job growth over last year you are really seeing it in texas and north carolina where there are people to fill those jobs particularly the frontline service position with leisure and hospitality. dallas and miami are picking up the best job growth. it is slower, but still picking up one issue from pre-pandemic

levels, there are 800,000 fewer jobs it made up from people shifting from transportation jobs to professional and business jobs which are overpre-pandemic from the wage, hourly earnings are up over last year. millennials, the biggest work force, is seeing strong wage gains. >> how do you think about the jobs data that you are seeing in small businesses and how it relates to the national economy? i wonder that we are hearing warnings from corporate america about slowing and uncertainty and fierce headwinds is this going to catch up with small businesses or do you see this as a pocket that is isolated >> well, i think small businesses always have a harder

time hiring in the competitive environment. they don't have the flexibility of remote work or as much freedom to increase wages or add benefits as they are doing it, they are doing that now they are finding ways to cut hours if you are a restaurant. many restaurants are cutting hours and making it flexible they are adding benefits like retirement plans and insurance like never before. i think small businesses are finding resourceful ways to get employees. it is still tough for them >> i wonder if you saw the article about the notion of a job-full recession as opposed to a jobless recovery do you see evidence of that from where you sit as someone who runs paychex and you get a good read of what other businesses are doing, but as a ceo yourself >> it is always tough finding

people right now it is in certain pockets small businesses are finding people in the states where people have migrated to. the southern states. texas, florida, georgia, north carolina they are finding people to fill these jobs there are people out there to find them. it is a little bit harder than it typically is. we are seeing good job growth at paychex. sales are strong retention is strong. the only thing that is interesting is employee initiated leaving. people are leaving jobs. that's up to 2/3 of people who are leaving jobs 2/3 of the time they are doing it on their own. that is more than double than two and a half years ago >> are rthey retirretiring >> some are retiring and others are shifting to other jobs you see the more business and transportation and warehousing

they are getting less into the leisure and hospitality. they are not into those frontline service jobs as they are getting into the warehouse or working from home and find a job that way it is quite a shift from pre-pandemic employment levels we are only 800,000 less than pre-pandemic it shifted where the jobs are going. >> marty, great to get your perspective. >> thank you, melissa. coming up, check out the faang stocks this morning. we look for buying opportunities among beaten up tech names that's next. [sfx: street ambience] ♪ ["fly me to the moon"] ♪ ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other words...

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let's check on the markets on this tuesday morning. we are looking at decline at the

open s&p is looking to lose 16. we have been stable this morning so far the dow looking to lose 116. nasdaq looking to be down 62 points. st still well below as for oil, we are seeing an increase in price when it comes to brent -- excuse me, a decrease brent is down 1.4% we have been adding to those losses wti is down by a fraction of a perfect. in terms of the currency world, the euro dollar is really gaining all the headlines this morning. euro dollar is hitting a 20-year low here a stunning move in currencies. the dixie, the dollar index is also a higher buy just about a

percent. as for gold, moving the dollar is simply not changed. gold is 1802.0 is your level >> we are best house in a bad neighborhood in terms of recession. we got our own recession why should germany have all the attention? >> well, they are hit more by the decline of increase and energy >> the whole putin and price hike >> we don't know the fall-out that have yet to take fully in effect >> the dollar is surging >> the dollar relative, right? >> yes >> you have to be careful if you use any of those i think that one is okay >> you can't probably not use that >> no?

>> i don't think so. >> there is none of those. at least with houses you are not insulting anybody because of defense caliber. >> there are people with dead rocks. people like roaches. meta is down 52% so far. am closing down its digital wallet project and a 30% cut to hiring as the country braces for more tough times ahead. joining us now the director of vc shop capital. these are all real companies, if you like them when they were doubled or higher from where they are now, would this be a time to bill positions in some of these things? >> yes, i mean look, meta lost half of its market value this

year if you like meta, you should buy meta because this is a great time to buy. it is now being seen as a value stock alongside some of these other ones that's pretty unprecedented from what we have seen the last few years of these tech stocks there are crazy leaderships, sandberg, they are done with their crypto products. last night it was announced of the pure to pure wall product, kind of having this work harder, elon musk style. he's looking to cut costs and that could work really, really well for the stock price or may not. >> when you read last week about how many engineers they're going

to need. there was a big number overall but it was a lot less than we thought. did that have to do with the general malays of the economy or the entire corporate strategy that zuckerberg is pursuing is questionable >> if you believe in the bets that he says he still is making in the metaverse and the head sets they're going to launch and if you believe that's going to drive revenue dollars, he's still hiring a lot of engineers but if you are concerned about sort of the journey he's taken and you don't think this is a company that's going to end up spinning off a bunch of really interesting business or amazon with their web services and other things i think you have to ask yourself, do you think all of these other things are

distractions from their core businesses of getting users to click everyday and click on ads and some of their fore rays like instagram products and videos, those are working. the pet project for a lot of people on the treat is hard to wrap around the idea that in a year from now, millions of us are sitting strapped to head sets on our eyes looking at the metaverse. >> we have been talking about chips for a while now and the double ordering and triple ordering in the notion that when we are in a pandemic and we thought we are going to need all these things as far off in the future as you can see. that's no longer may be the case should we take technology with a grain of salt right now in general that we carry too much

of the future? >> on social media and every feed you will see of people who last night were at fireworks with their phones out recording every moment, right? the question is do we need as many chips maybe not because we are not playing video games and we are not doing things that's taking as much processing power do you feel you personally or your kids or grandparents are going to put down your cell phone and go live your life unfeathered by technology any time soon. the answer is probablynot. >> all right, sarah, these are the times. make all of our long-term assumptions that we start wondering about. maybe that's good. good to have you on. >> awesome, thank you. coming up, a holiday short trading week but there is no short of key economic data steve leishman will be joining us 'll prices is trading higher

wel check with jeff currie, stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

futures is losing some stream pointing to a low open right now. the big start is a euro sliding to a 20-year low norwegian worker strike today. we'll hear from jeff currie and where prices could be headed the second half of the year as our second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here cnbc, i am joe curnow and with melissa

lee. we got wednesday and thursday and friday, i am used to it. you are doing "fast money. >> of course how could i not do my own show >> that means you are getting up at 3:30. by the time you do your show at 5:00, you would have been at 13 hours. >> i think i hit my peak at 13 so maybe this is perfect when you get a fruit basket from management everyday or cracker barrel and everything. >> flowers and a bear that comes on friday, the last day of the week >> edible arrangements >> i love cantaloupe on skewers. you can't beat that. >> no expenses spared. >> i can feel it >> u.s. equity futures at this hour are bad, they're down

they looked okay last night briefly and there is as firmer tone last week but the angst and the fear, take your pick we could be worried about inflation and recession. that's stagnation. that's so where in the soup, we don't know what the fed is going to do. 75 basis points is one of the basic heights in recent decades. there are more to come and where he are worried treasury right now are below 3% of on the 10-yr. check out oil after the busy holiday weekend. you can see it were 108. the euro sliding against the

dollar the euro dropped 8% against the dollar this year and we don't know what a trade is in in country anymore. rick talks about it all the time and we are a wealthy nation that imports a lot of stuff it is not necessarily a bad thing. germany had 30 years of every month having a trade surplus until this latest month. it goes back to after reunif reunification, bring down that wall that'll raise your awareness of the issue. >> it is the commodity picture that's driving it. >> and energy. >>definitely tesla deliveries failed compares to the prior three

months it was impacted by the shutdown in china and impacted its suppliers. negotiations are continuing on for new contracts for more than 22,000 west coast workers. workers at 29 pacific remained on the job any disruptions would exacerbate supply chain issues in the u.s "minions" topped the box officest office at $107 million, it marks the best opening for any animated movies sie before the pandemic look who's here? leishman, where have you been? this could be a big week figuring out it is the summer where you don't tell me you are back following, what's the name of the grateful dead man that

you fall further or something? >> dead and co >> far off >> is that where you have been >> back on the road. >> touring >> he goes and follows them. >> how many dead shows have you again to in your life? >> over a hundred or something like that. >> all right joe, do you remember dick cheney during the 9/11, i am in udl right now. >> does it have to do with knowledge? >> it has to do with the fish are, joe, i can't tell you >> i knew that you are joining us new with a preview of the upcoming data and the fed minutes.

>> yeah, this debate over recession is going toget hotte this week. we have a series of reports that's going to shed lights on the current days of the economy and it ends on friday with an important jobs report. we have the factory order today. i am interested in tomorrow's ism services to see if we have that is switch from manufactures which is a little weaker jolts come out is going to tell us about the jobs report fed minutes shed some lights why they did that emergency 75 bases heights. jobless claims are among recession, they tend to rise early. the national bureau of economic research uses those to figure out when the recession began deutsche bank comments "it is increasingly likely that economy will contract for a second c

consecutive quarter. the crux of our view that the economy will not fall in top recession is the labor market remain strong even amid softer final demand i should talk about it earlier a step downward with just a consensus for june's payroll, 50,000 the number still strong for normal times but these of course are not. likely some noise in that job data it is been out of whack by the pandemic it looks like thousands of foreigners have been able to get visas to work in the summer jobs in tuhe u.s i am not getting any edibles in my basket, is that what are you talking about melissa?

>> edibles in my basket. >> edibles because she's working so long. >> we did get some cbd edibles to my german shepard for the fireworks. >> they're martha stewart's edibles for pets >> you take one yourself >> no. no, no, it is very traumatic for them people lose pets they run away and jump over fences and doing all kinds of things they definitely, my male, he was so wasted and it was kind of cool no edibles let me read this question to you. this is a source of the recession slow down tension and the economy is normalizing from

the pandemic and reeling from high inflation why am i asking you that >> that was part of his script >> why did they leave it in there? is that the point you were trying to make, steve? >> that's what you have, joe, you have both of these things happening at once. the economy is definitely normalizing. we are making this shift to services, that's why ism service number is going to be important tomorrow you have the foreign workers back, that's interesting you have the commodity downturn and the stronger dollar which sort of working against inflation. i am interested and i know you guys have been covering all last week and i have been out what happens to the future is almost 70 basis points of tighten. if you guys look at that fed rate outlook, we got a peak fund rate i am going to double check if that number is right because it is really far. 339 is right

there it is at the top there, april 2023 call it 60 or 70 points tighten now out of the market. i don't know if that we are not going to have much inflation and the economy is going to be in the tank or we are not going to have much inflation where the economy is going be okay that's the debate. >> i keep on using that trying to be optimistic of something. the markets doing the work for if feds but it is not good it does not matter who causes the recession, a recession is not a great thing. can you believe that the germans had a trade deficit after 30 years, steve >> right >> there are some issues globally right now that we have not seen >> i have seen a big part of that is oil, and they also sent a lot of machine tools and expensive stuff to russia that is not going along anywhere.

>> we are counting on them to b the big global economic engine >> they can also do well with the trade. >> that trade deficit is a long story. >> there is concerns about it in florida and europe >> yes, that could be. >> tlall right, thanks. coming up more in the markets and what investors can expect and connecticut ned quk x" on reproduction rights. "sawbo will be right back.

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our gregg branch and our contributor, good morning to both of you. we were talking about the rev rehe reversal that we see the commodity prices the question though, why are they down that much?

is it recession fears or inflation is rolling over? that sort of one debate that's going on in the market right now. >> that's right. that's the biggest question out there. so far though investors are clinging to this as kind of a glimmer of hope that inflation is coming down or coming off its highs. we are seeing everything from copper to lumber to cotton and to even oil off of their highs i think it is a positive sign for markets right now. i think that's one glimmer of hope that investors are clinging to right now so far the stock market has been pricing in a recession with the big decline this year. what we have seen recently is some of the extreme pes -- many

are hoping the worst of the inflation is behind us >> greg, do you put yourself in one of those people who felt negative about the market. it sounds like you are calling for persistent in 2022 do you think there is a glimmer of hope here >> no, i think this is just antic anticipatory i think we can be confident in that because at the end of the day energy pricing is about to get more acute we talked about the weaponization of energy in europe where russia cuts 50% of its output in ornordstrom.

a higher energy price environment, i think you are going to see some of those commodity prices coming backup and not to mention what it is going to do with some of the industry in europe as we enter the winter heating season. as far as the market reflecting a recession, i don't think it is doing that at this point i am at 195 at the s&p and 17 times multiples on that, that gives you about 3300 that's mid-single contraction. >> yeah, we could have a lot of estimates coming down. i think that's the concern going into earnings season there is still too high. even if we do have this sort of at least right now reversal in commodity pressure, we got glimmers of hope when it comes to the supply chain because china has reopened

companies are not rewarded for being optimistic and having to pull back later on if these things don't last. >> take a look at what we have seen from executives, micron, w are getting more of those warnings of a slow down ahead. all anyone on wall street can talk about right now is a recession. people are freaking out about a recession. so far, some of the economic data does not point to that. the jobless rate has been steady and economists about for it to stay steady. that would make it an unusual recession because the jobs market is still incredibly strong you have all these mixed signals out there.

>> greg, can you see that happening? this time it could be different but a recession is called and based on many variables and not just economic growth for two straight quarters and we could have a pull back in terms of economic growth that involves people still being at their jobs >> i agree i think this one is going to be unique here is what's going to be the kicker normally we are not used to a recessions occurring without a weakening labor market the jolt state of where we get this week is going to show that we have 7 more million jobs. the labor market is going to remain strong. workers are going to lose wages nonet nonetheless. when you have inflation at 8% and wage growth at 5% or less, the american people are still losing money that combined with a

consumer/demand destruction, that comes down. the month before, i think all of that will contribute and will be quite unique >> i thought wages are sticky, greg i thought it was harder to pull those back and things like that and rent so why are you saying that workers will lose that wage gain >> because they'll have to spend more on the baskets of goods they have to buy >> all right, their spending power just eroded. >> that's right. >> i think in terms of the positioning in the commodity market, that may indicate perhaps this is temporary and i am wondering what you are hearing in terms of people using the commodity market as an inflation head and pulling out those hedges now that's part of the reason why we are seeing that turn around. >> that could certainly play a role commodity prices are just about the only thing that have gone up this year with incredibly large

declines in both the stocks and the bond market. that's the key trend to watch. what's going to happen with the commodity market because it is going to impact what the fed does what people's expectations of inflation are moving forward if you want to know what the market does next, you need to be watching oil prices, cotton prices and lumber prices which already collapsed. >> thank you both for your time on this tuesday. >> pmy pleasure. coming up goldman sachs' global head commodity, jeff currie as we head to break, check out the leaders and laggers in the s&p 500 this morning "squawk box" is coming right back what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai.

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bezos over the weekend twe tweeting out over the weekend.

offered with -- i am exhausted i am exhausted even trying to respond and i don't need thine aggregattaggre. nothing's going to change. president biden is not listening to me. >> i doubt he'll listen to jeff bezos. >> still to come, connecticut governor ned lamont is joining us to talk about gas and many more and later we'll talk to jeff currie, stay tuned, "squawk box" will be right back ng on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq,

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our next guest has a pitch for the community, his state is p pro-growth and pro-women reproductive rights. let's welcome governor ned

lamont thank you for joining us that phrase sort of takes away one of my questions initially. would you really think there are certain states and certain companies would relocate for the reproductive rights issue, i guess they look at the opportunities in that state in total. i would think the tax in probusiness environment and all these other things have a big role to play as well >> governor, hold that thought we are going to check your audio and mic. i am not good at and i have no idea at reading lips >> not your forte. >> you know it is actually fort? >> i know that >> is the governor ready yet did we check him before we try to do this

i am talking right now >> we did check him and something happened with the mute how about now, do we have enough time to get back to him or we have to go back to break >> do you hear me now? do you hear me now we'll head to break. >> oh. how is that? >> he's back >> see, you give it a little time and it works. governor, that's my question, you would not make a pitch to come here because we have legal abortion, you would not expect a company just to switch for that, it would be the entire environment in connecticut that you have been talking about for years since you have been governor >> absolutely. it is probably the whole bundle. let's face it. companies move and employees want to be identified with comp companies. one of them may be values and so

we say when we think about connecticut, maybe it is our stable fiscal outlook, maybe it is our great schools and maybe we want to be in a place your female employees are welcome and we respect their choice. >> abortion is legal up to a point of fetal viability what is that considered, 22 to 24 weeks what's the actual number there >> that's right, joe we codify roe v. wade. we'll continue to be the law of the state of connecticut as long as i am governor appropriation restrictions that people know and we are not going to add on new restrictions >> do you think there are states where a majority of adults would

not want legal in all cases. i am wondering if whether you think that's essentially what the supreme court's decision means. i guess constituents could wait in legislatures that would do the bidding of what they want. maybe a red conservative state where it may not be 67%. is that okay >> i don't think so. the in vverse is true here you can change governor and legislatures and that could shift and we don't want that happening here you see that in red states from the other side >> governor, i am curious in terms of your appeal to businesses, is it your hope that the moral aspect of the decision will be the tipping point that your sales pitch are taxes and etc. when i look at the tax rate for connecticut is 7.5% by

comparison of the state of florida 4.5% how do you make the economic case so that the moral decision is the tipping point because businesses have to consider all of this. >> yes, you are absolutely right, melissa it is one of a number of governed facts verses nobody pays that corporate income tax more importantly people think of connecticut and maybe think of schools and maybe saying i like to be apart of the great new york city system but don't want to live there. i think they like the fact that there is a park and a beach near by maybe they like connecticut values we are trying to portray ourselves and being the most family and friendly state in the country, that means not just reproductive choice. that means paid family and

leave, and if you are ready to have a baby, have them here. >> governor, if we could, i am surprised and i don't talk about cultural issues but this obviously is a business story in terms of what we are talking about. can we talk about economic issues and maybe inflation, this odd period that we seem to be in where we came out of a pandemic and a supply chain issues combined with the potential for a widespread war which we thought, non any of us thought it is possible again but it is, we are seeing what's happening in ukraine it is an odd place where we are. we are getting some murmuring out of the white house and i am wondering if you agree with. do you think it is company that are profiteering can companies right now handle

inflation or cure inflation by not putting prices where they would normally be in a free market system and they can arbitrarily lower them that's essentially what president biden is asking companies. does that make sense >> look, joe, i think it is clear that the big oil companies and the trucking companies do have pricing power and their joint record profits >> they're not record profits, they're not even close >> for the gas station operators, let's face it, there is no market that's more competitive. we just drive around so i can save a penny here or four cents there. i don't think that's right what i try to do is, we got about 650 million tax cuts

rather than going through ah a middleman. that's going to happen this summer >> do you think for an individual state, i understand that gas tax you can provide immediate relief you probably heard the argument that just increases demand and if you are trying to get prices down, you don't want to increase demand where the products where you really need to increase supply do you think we should be doing more in terms of fossil fuel production and removing some of the regulation that the green lobby argued for and the biden administration and esg fund managers and etcetera, that has influence the supply and we are going to saudi arabia, going down south to south america, we have not asked our producers or at least done some type of manhattan project where we are

going all out for fossil fuel production i got to provide some immediate relief to people if i live in connecticut, we double down to nuclear power and that in terms of electric grid or electric supply for the foreseeable future is a big plus i was very disappointed of the hydro power coming down fro from tibet i look at all of the above to make sure we have the supply and can do everything we can to hold our price to consumers >> what can we do for labor issues and what do you attribute this odd period that we are in now where we seem to have a lot of demand for people and just unable to find and we are at

3.9% nationwide unemployment, what are you in connecticut right now? you are similar and maybe be better >> yeah, we are about that it is the weirdest recession of my lifetime. we have 150,000 jobs that we fill here in connecticut i am doubling down the work force and i am making sure that electric is working with me and we got the necessary welders to make sure they can meet their needs and when it comes to nurses and i.t., we are making sure we are getting everybody back to work there is a global search fo for talents. if they don't find it in connecticut, they're going to go some where else. >> do you think at this point, the good times, the states budget, we had governor murphy on last week, i was in shock and

he promises me that we are not going to forget when there is good times, you may be putting alitt a little away, what do you attribute that to? >> we had our fourth year of the balance budget we didn't use the federal money to balance our budge the good times are not going to go on forever. we have been around for a while. i have done two things so when we get those head winds, we don't have to raise taxes or cut services we pay 10% of our pension liability to our both teachers and state employees and saves us hundreds of millions of dollars going forward. frankly, we still have a long way to go. >> people like you governor, you are going to be governor again, i figured because of at least the way your popularity is what's after that? do you feel you got a little bit of a leadership vacuum

naturally? have you noticed you got any aspirations beyond connecticut? >> i love being the governor of conne connecticut. i am the first business guy doing this job and millennial. if you are a business guy, you would like to be an executive and make a difference and governor is that job i will let washington takes care of themselves. i that the go to learn to speak with a stronger voice in terms of what they are doing and why they are doing it. >> we are in an odd position in terms economically but also as a country. it is troubling. are you troubled i am troubled. >> well, i am really troubled in one sense. i was listening to fireworks and you are supposed to think of life and the pursuit of happiness and all of a sudden i started thinking of gunshots and the kids and what's going through their heads. it is still an amazing country

we got enormous jobs growth, extraordinary opportunity, the fastest growing economy in the world. let's shake it off a little bit. we are doing pretty well, we got to keep doing better >> governor, thank you for coming on. i appreciate it. >> nice to see you, joe. coming up, ahead of commodity research, jeff currie will join us to talk about the second half of the year. n d later kevin brady will joi us to discuss the president's policy much more, stay tuned. [music playing] ♪ imagine something of your very own. ♪ ♪ something you can have and hold. ♪ ♪ i'd build a road in gold just to have some dreaming, ♪ ♪ dreaming is free. ♪ accenture, let there be change.

welcome back to "squawk box. the nasdaq indicated down just after 100. >> bershire hathaway added again. stock is up about more than 1% this morning >> shares of crocs are higher after the casual shoemaker was upgraded to buy. coming up, jeff currie, of

g goldman sachs on commodity prices we'll discuss what members can expect for the second half of the year "squawk box" will be right back. only at vanguard you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means that your priorities are ours too. our interactive tools and advice can help you build a future for the ones you love. that's the value of ownership.

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moderate, $4.80 cents. joining us now is jeff currie. the journal had a piece of decline in prices for raw materials and how that had some people hopeful in the texts of the body of the article points out some of that is coming from speculators and we knowcommodities, you got to figure out and you got suppliers and users and gracing the wheels, you got the speculators along for the ride they're great, there are also skewed prices up or down is this speculators that are exiting even supply and demand have not really changed? >> yes, absolutely, financial ma markets are trying to price the recession. i want to say the liquidation in these markets have been nothing short but a very large scale in terms of physical market,

it is the tightest on record as long as the data goes back the saudis took back their physical prices up to $9 a barrel when you look at inventories, we are at critically slow inventories across the base. when you look at the high frequency data, we are out of refining capacities, when we look at particular on the food and fuel side, these markets are telling you something very different than what the financial markets are telling you. >> well, that's not helpful in terms of probably overall inflation and what the feds have to do. unless, you may mabe speculators are surprising in a recession, a recession could hit the demand side so may be that could be self-fulfilling. at any glimmers of hope we are

seeing right now don't necessarily mean supplies are going to ease any time soon. >> absolutely a true statement >> i want to point something out, the difference between commodities and financial markets. the financial markets are driven by expectations, driven about we future is going to look like commodities are spot assets driven by whatis going on today. so if you sell the market on expectations of weakness in the future, it actually makes it more bullish because you cut back supply. so i think those physical markets are telling you this situation is far from over and it is still very tight we think there's a lot of upside risk near term we stick to $140 a barrel target on oil when you look at products they're pricing in something closer to $175 a barrel. if you take our $140 and translate it into product prices, it comes in somewhere

around $5.30 a gallon on gasoline and $6 a gallon on diesel that means more upside risk at the pumps which will be difficult from an inflation perspective. >> jeff, the $140 a barrel forecast you have, does it factor in the full extent and full impact of potential price caps, of the real enactment of a ban on russian oil, the limitation of oil equipment into russia, all of those things that are sort of happening as we speak? >> well, it incorporates the potential or announced ban by the eu it does not incorporate a price cap. i want to be really careful about this price cap it has all been discussed under the assumption that the russians will supply this oil, but there's one thing that, you know, i just kind of take the oil and take about the risk here is there's 10 million barrels per day of russian oil that's being produced you can think about, you know, four of it covers the cost of

the industry, three of it goes into government revenues the last 3 million barrels per day is to create hard currencies like euros and dollars and they have an asset freeze on it their sintincentive to produce e last 3 million barrels a day is not there. if you put a stringent cap on it, their incentive to produce it drops precipitously let's not assume the oil will be there. you have to think of it from the supply side as well and the incentive for the russians to produce. some of the price caps are so low and so draconian it would be questionable the other thing, if oil prices rally further, the price cap stays lower and they say, hey, the barrels drop out i want to be careful here that the price cap discussion is not an end-all discussion here it is not a perfect substitute for what the eu ban. but to answer your question, yes, we do factor in the eu ban. >> jeff, it seems like energy prices percolate through the --

all parts of the economy is it possible that you could see supply/demand dynamics for all of the other commodities you follow, whether it is soybeans or copper or go across the board. koo y could you have a lot of progress made in terms of supply, but if oil is at 140 you will still have a stubborn cpi because it filters through to so many different things so that is the key commodity that we're talking about when we are trying to figure out whether inflation is here to stay. >> absolutely. in fact, you know, throughout history for, you know, the last 50 years the best hedge against inflation is oil in fact, you go out through history, back millennia, the best hedge for inflation has always been hydro carbons or car b carbohydrates. it is why it is so ex pepensiveo

do, because it has been the power for millennia. when you look at the best hedge it is strictly hydro carbons but throw in the food and i would like to point out most of the food is produced through nitrogen fertilizen wr and it i another carbon-based fuel there. when you look at the emerging markets tit is the food and the fuel the key point here and we have made the point over and over, the best hedge for inflation is oil. it has been and will continue to be >> it has been pointed out that europe, germany, i mean they have invested a lot in renewables and they have not invested in whatever you want to call it, legacy energy what does it look like, the next three or four years for people that live in some of the areas of europe that might get cold in the winter what is going to happen, jeff?

>> i mean you are already -- you know, you look at where natural gas is trading in europe it is extraordinarily high levels you know, reaching 150 euros per megawatt hour. i think the key point here is that these shortages are going to be really difficult to resolve. we need investment, and at this point right now -- remember how you kicked the discuss off, pointing out that investors are not only selling commodities they're selling the equities, they're selling the credit so the ability for the industry to raise cash is severely constrained right now at a time when it needs it more than ever, which means we are going to delay this i like to point out, and you look at the 1970s when volker took up the space to debottleneck it. not only do we not have investment but as you pointed at the beginning of the call we have outflows at a time we node to fix the problems. it is telling you that the problems will be with us for

quite sometime until we see the investments start to flow. >> very good all right. jeff currie, thanks. great having you on, as always more important than ever do you have him on you probably should. >> we have had, yes. >> you should. >> yes, we have. >> congratulations that's smart good jeff, thank you. just trying to help, trying to help >> thanks, joe >> you're welcome. >> we will take any suggestions, straight to the top of my inbox. >> all right you control. you do, don't you? >> i have no say coming up, joining us right after the break, muhammed elle-erian stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. hd elle-erian stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. o elle-erian stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. elle-erian stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. elle-erian stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. elle-erian stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. e elle-erian stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. d elle-erian stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. -n stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. -n stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

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good morning we we're back from a long weekend and futures pointing lower as we make our way towards the opening bell major averages off the four negative week in five and now down almost 250 points on the future a new 20-year low for the euro versus the dollar. we will talk about what is driving the action with market expert mohamed el-erian. talk of easing between the u.s. and china tariffs.

the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning, welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times sq square. i' i'm melissa lee this morning we have lost a little bit of steam as we progressed the s&p 500 looking to lose 33 at opening down down 240. the nasdaq will be only 128. as for treasury yields we see them declining across the board. ten-year yield, 2.884 so we lost a few basis points in the past few minutes owe so the euro hitting the lowest level against the dollar in 20 years. we do see the dollar index up by a little more than a percent this is certainly interesting in

the currency markets here. new this morning, crypto company nexo says it is planning to buy fellow lender vauld it comes after vauld has suspended more than withdrawals from 800,000 customers, nexo didn't say how much the purchase price would be. >> janet yellen holding a conversation with china's vice peer mere. yellen talked about the global economic impact of russia's war in ukraine for its part, china's commerce ministry expressed concerns over u.s. tariffs there's been speculation president biden may roll back some of the tariffs. we will get a report from our own eunice yoon in a few minutes. jeff bezos sparring with president biden on twitter at biden tweeted over the weekend gas companies should lower

prices bezos tweeted, out, it is straight ahead misdirection or deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics. the white house press secretary hit back at bezos arguing prices at the pump have only come down a little despite lower prices in past few weeks to the broader markets as we get set for a holiday-shortened week cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us with more. friday seemed like things were getting better, mike, but the reality always seems to hit home maybe because this tuesday feels like a monday. >> well, yes, and the rest of the world had yesterday to start worrying about things and pricing in global slowdown and all of the rest of the macro stuff that seems to be weighing on the s&p 500 this morning, joe. to dial it back, remember, week before last s&p was up almost 6% last week gave up a couple percent of that on net so you are still a few percent off the lows this is the s&p 500 etf.

multiply it by ten an get the s&p 500 level. these lows here just above 3,600 on the s&p on the intraday basis. you have a few percent to play with but the action is happening in bonds, in credit, in the dollar and that's pricing a lot in but the equity market as well has already positioned pretty far in the direction of some kind of serious consumer entrenchment this is equal weighted so it is a cross section of the sectors going back three years you see this massive -- look, this is what discretionary was, had a huge premium over defensive sectors because we were in a consumer boom. everyone thought it was going to continue now you have given up pretty much everything since the start of the pandemic in consumer discretionary. if somebody says, hey, you know what, we're at stall speed in the economy, the consumer looks like it is going to be pulling back, it is not news to the market what we never know is how much is priced in already take a look at this chart of the s&p 500's year-over-year change

from bespoke, relative to the ism manufacturing indicator which basically is a book/bust indicator. this shows the current level of the s&p year over year change implies the ism will get down into the mid 40s, right. that's basically, you know, kind of a steep slowdown, some kind of manufacturing recession this other line is if the s&p doesn't change, this is what is going to happen to the year-over-year change because we will be lapping higher prices a year ago so my point is the stock market's already gotten some distance in that direction, the pricing in this kind of slowdown with credit still flaring up you never know if it is all in there. probably not, but it does show you that it is not as if equities have just been kind of bystanders and not paying attention to all of the slowdown indicators, joe. >> i see why people like technical analysis, mike, because you can almost fundamentally make any sort of a -- you can come to opposite conclusions and not be wrong

with fundamental analysis. we had liesman on who pointed out the fed futures have come down 75 basis points if the fed were able to orchestrate a slowdown or a recession at a lower absolute level of interest rates, would that be a positive because rates wouldn't be as high, or would it be, well, it is still a recession and stocks don't like that? it seems like it would be a positive if we could get the job done for less tightening >> it would probably be a positive in the sense that it is mostly happened through the fed projecting what it is going to do >> right >> and having market rates kind of adjust to that. >> but it is still a slowdown. >> yes, absolutely >> we don't like -- we shouldn't be -- that's what is so messed up about what the fed's tool is, that's all we have is a way to lower demand we should be increasing supply that's why they call them supply

siders >> well, you know, absolutely we can debate that. the fed admits it has blunt tools. so far, i'm not saying we have a soft landing in play, but it is a very unusual set of circumstances in terms of the type of slowdown we are seeing employment hasn't yet moved, it is a lagging indicator, but i think it is worth examining what kind of downturn or slowdown we might have right here. what the market is saying about that also. >> all right, mike thank you. >> yeah. joining us now for more on the markets, including that new 20-year low for the euro against the dollar, mohamed elle-erian mohamed, always great to get your take on things. i want to start off with the massive decline in the euro because it factors in to what central banks do for all of the hawkishness that the ecb has telegraphed it is not really doing anything, so

that sort of gets them into a pickle which then impacts what we do here in the u.s. >> it does, and it is not just the euro if you look at what is happening to the british pound, if you look around the emerging world, dollar strength is the theme and understandably so. as much as we are slowing down, melissa, the rest of the world will slow even more. people are looking and making a relative judgment because that's where currencies live. they're making a relative judgment about the u.s. being better than the rest of the world. it is good news for us it helps on the inflation side but it causes what i call little fires everywhere around the globe because they cannot cope with too weak currency because they have an inflation problem, too. >> i think i'm being obtuse about this, mohamed, but when i think about the euro hitting a 20-year low, yes, it is good for the u.s. dollar and certainly good in the fed's priority over restoring price stability. at the same time it is a weight

on european yields so the german bund, for instance that could be an anchor for weights in the united states how do we separate the two >> i think the u.s. mainly will be led by u.s.-specific factors, and certainly the fed will be lead by u.s.-specific factors. the complication is for the rest of the world you know, they're coping with energy insecurity, food insecurity, and dollar strength makes that worse that's particularly playing out in the eurozone and it is particularly playing out in a number of american economies. >> so we are seeing futures continue to decline this morning. the s&p 500 is now looking to be down about 42 at the open. so when we think about the difficulties that europe could face, you mention all of these insecurities, food, energy, et cetera i mean in the past -- and i'm not trying to stoke alarmist fears or anything like that, but in certain parts of the world it could lead to political

instability. how should we view this in terms of the longer term implications and the fact that that actually makes the u.s. on a relative basis look like a much better place to invest, even though we are seeing declines here in the equity markets >> you know, in relative terms it is good for us. you know, it is the old clean-is-dirty shirt in the global economy and we are the cleanest dirty shirt in absolute terms it is not good, but the u.s. market is about pricing in slowdown and pricing in the fact that the fed is forced to high rates into a slowdown as mike just said, we have a very unusual set of circumstances, and one of them is the fed being so late to its heightening cycle. so the market is trying to internalize the slow down and the fed hiking into that slowdown that's what you are seeing play out in different segments of the market there are sillver linings in

this, three in particular but it doesn't feel good in the process. >> how do you think we weather q2 earning season? in terms of guidance companies have a dilemma here because we see a rollover in many, many commodity prices from spring highs. at the same time they will not be rewarded for going out and saying they have more clarity because who knows if this sort of rollover in inflation that we've seen is transitory or long lasting. >> you're absolutely right if you are sitting in corporate america right now your cost side looks clearer because you get a sense that a lot of the import prices have peaked, so on the expenditure side it looks better because high and persistent inflation is destroying demand, so i suspect you will find that most corporate cfos will be cautious about the outlook, not on account of the cost side, which is the story for last

year, but on account of the revenue side >> what do you make, mohamed, of the decline that we've seen in the trusheasury market in terms yield? we were up firmly above 3% and now we're firmly below that. that's certainly good for the equity markets at least for the time being >> i would look, melissa, if i may at two things. they're basically flat with, i think, one basis point, which tells you that the marketplace is looking at a slowdown and is looking at the fed hiking into the slowdown this is the consistent theme throughout all of the markets. mike santoli took us through different parts of the equity market it is the same story within government bonds, it is the same story in corporate bonds it is this notion of how you price in the fed hiking into a slowdown, and that's exactly what is happening in the government bond market as well >> that's actually a good thing

though, isn't it as i said, markets are, in fact, now starting to price it in. or do you think that the equity markets have not priced it in, that we are seeing it priced in elsewhere but not fully in equities >> no one knows whether it is fully or not you know, i will go back to what joe said earlier who is leading who is it the fed that's leading the markets and, therefore, you can hope for a softish landing or is it, as i believe, the market is leading the fed, which means that, once again, the fed will be late to recognizing the change dynamic goes? that's a really important judgment if you believe that it is the fed -- it is the fed leading the markets, then you will be more optimistic about markets in general than if you believe it is the market that's leading the fed. >> do you think it is the latter >> i do. i think it is the third time in the last 12 months where the markets are significantly ahead of the fed the fed is still six months behind us in terms of inflation

is not transitory. finally they realize that and we have a hike. and the market is saying, wait a minute, this is a slowing economy, you may not need to hike as much as we this. to use chair powell's team, the unconditional hike has to be qualified through the market that's what the market is telling the fed right now. >> nice to see you, mohamed el-erian >> thank you very much the mets last night, you're not mentioning that, i see that, mohamed. >> i'm still here. i want to say thank you for giving the mets our 50th win it was kind of you yesterday your reds are wonderful to us. thank you. >> the reds bullpen is the worst bullpen in the history of baseball and i had them yesterday and i had a no-run first inning and i had brandon nimo or the other brandon, both to get hits. i would have won a big parlay,

but the red had to win and they didn't mets are good. mets are good. >> don't say that. please don't say that. >> i'm hopeful for you the more i say it -- >> they're right there at our heels, nipping at our heels. coming up, texas congressman kevin brady joins us live. we will talk energy, inflation, recession odds and there's a jobs report this week because we skipped it last week stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

g gra welcome back to "squawk box. futures are deteriorating, now down 340 points, down as little as 120 in the dow earlier. the nasdaq getting worse, 160. the s&p is down another 44 points or so european markets also suffering, as you can see, across the board. 1 37b 1.5% to 2.5% losses. the euro hitting a low natural gas, the euros as you see right now, natural gas has come down a little bit i don't know what that means really for the winter. some stocks to watch this

morning. who was selling? one billionaire was selling, buffet was buying, i think icon or something occidental petroleum moving higher that berk shire box neary 10 million, boosting the stake in the company to 17.4%. exxonmobil is up this is the first reaction we have seen following a late friday company announcement that second quarter earnings could total as much as $18 billion "minions: the rise of gru" topped the weekend box office. it was $107 million in domestic ticket sales, better than industry watchers were predicting and it marks the best opening for any animated movie since before the pandemic. "minions" is distributed by universal which is part of nbc a live report from beijing

is next. much more on tesla in the second quarter delivery numbers, what should investors be watching the second part of the year we have a debate you won't want to miss. we are live from the market site in times square. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton. they'd huddle.... welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha! omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system used by over half of the fortune 500. for a be-agile-like-an-mvp world. workday. for a changing world. like any family, the auburns all have... individual priorities. some like strategic diversification. some like a little comfort, to balance out the risk. others want immediate gratification...

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wa i source products everywhere artists of color i didn't always embrace who i fully was when i met my wife now i'm very proud, i'm very open you should be proud of who you are every day, and that's my stance >> learn more at cnbc's equity and opportunity high level contact between the u.s. and china on tariffs. eunice yoon joins us with more

from beijing eunice. >> reporter: thanks so much, melissa. well, the treasury secretary janet yellen had a virtual call with china's vice premiere, and the chinese described the conversation as constructive the treasury department said that the secretary laid out the u.s. concerns that the impact of russia's war on ukraine was harming the global economy as well as what the u.s. sees as unfair chinese trade practices now, the chinese side said that the vice premiere brought up u.s. tariffs, sanctions and what beijing believes to be u.s. mistreatment of chinese companies. the american read-out did not include a mention of tariffs, but the expectation is growing that president biden could potentially announce as early as this week either a reduction or a removal of trump-era tariffs people who i spoke to here, suppliers as well as business folks, have said that the impact for them would be potentially be

immediate, that they could see a lot of orders. so they would be very pleased about it but for president biden, the choice is really not so clear cut. some economists have said that the impact of a tariff rollout -- of a roll back of tariffs might not have as big an impact on overall inflation as one might think. barclays, for example, estimates a maximum one-time 0.3 percentage point drop. there are considerations for president biden that he could look weak on china, especially if china gives nothing in return publicly, it looks as though beijing is not willing to cooperate. the foreign ministry said today that china's position has always been clear the cancellation of all tariffs on china will benefit both china and the u.s. and the world so really stressing that china is the one that has been in the right on this issue.

melissa. >> at the same time, eunice, this all comes amid a period of time where it sounds like the administration wants to make sure that its relationship with china is on track, right we heard reports that president biden and president xi will have some sort of video conference call sometime over the summer. so it does seem like there's some -- i don't know if you want to go as far as to call it an olive branch, but at least an awareness that there needs to be some sort of cooperation here. >> reporter: yeah, and i think that there is that feeling on the chinese side, but maybe out of necessity because here in china, of course, the economic considerations are there the chinese have long been arguing that tariffs needed to be lifted. there is a concern about the impact on chinese companies, suppliers and the overall economy. not the biggest concern, of course, there are other concerns such as covid restrictions, however, this is something the chinese have been arguing. that said, the chinese have often repeated that the

deterioration of u.s. and china relations is the sole responsibility of the u.s., and that u.s. policy needs to change, that the chinese don't have to change so it is still unclear exactly what is going to be negotiated, but, again, all of these negotiations are happening behind closed doors. melissa. >> eunice, thank you eunice yoon. when we come back, texas congressman kevin brady will join us with his view on the economy ahead of a critical jobs number later this week plus, tesla deliveries dropping in the second quarter you can definitely blame a lot of that on china still, we want to know if the ev giant will recover in q3 and beyond a debate is on the way stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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genesys, we're behind every customer smile. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are looking at more than 1% decline on the futures s&p 500 down by 40 points, looking to open down 40. nasdaq looking to be down about 143.

major averages coming off the fourth negative week in the last five as we've been talking about this morning, the euro hitting its lowest level in 20 years versus the dollar you can see the european markets are lower across the board this headline just coming in, joe, that the euro could breach parity versus the dollar in august the forecast falls to 95 cents it is a stunning move. >> long-time projection people thought could happen >> yeah. >> certainly make tariffs more manageable for, you know, the 1% problem that we talk about >> exactly >> it is much more expensive -- it is expensive to begin with, but then you do the translation -- you do the calculation, much more expensive. so i'm just thinking about - >> yourself? >> well, yeah, yeah. not just myself, you know, maybe bring some family members. before the last break we were talking about the u.s. potentially rolling back some tariffs on chinese goods that could help ease some of the pain of inflation, but is it the

right way to get higher prices under control? to talk more let's get to texas congressman kevin brady, ranking republican on the house ways and means committee. that mean billionaire who also owns "the washington post" said some horrible things about president biden, and then i know, i know, "wall street journal", that terrible person, rupert murdock, runs it. but there are interesting things that were said in "the journal" today, kevin you have from texas so i don't expect you to be very nice, either you love oil in texas. but business leaders chalked up president biden's attack on oil companies to political cynicism. that might be too generous a tweet over the weekend ordering gas stations to lower prices shows willful ignorance about the economy. none of this is going to matter,

congressman. i can tell you that these comments will keep coming that do seem to indicate either a deliberate misdirection or distorsion, which mr. bezos said, or a complete lack of understanding of how a free market economy works >> yes so, joe, my guess is that it is both you know, i think, look, they're trying to play a political game here that just isn't working to tamp down this raging inflation. we see it obviously in energy, the tapping of the strategic petroleum reserve. the gas tax holiday which most people think will save an american family $7 over three months now on the chinese tariffs my thought is, look, i think, i'm guessing they're going to do some roll backs that are another political gimmick. doesn't have really any impact on consumer goods. as you know, i don't like tariffs. tariffs are taxes. i think they drive prices up they distort the economy in a major way, but the president really isn't tackling this the

right way. i just think it is another act of theater >> so when will it be tackled or we are just at the whims of the global marketplace and i mean the invasion of ukraine certainly didn't help. europe has it much worse than we have it, but you don't see the biden administration unleashing american production in the way that it could, do you? they're not going to do it >> no, they are not going to do it as you know, our inflation overall is running about three points higher in america than it is in europe and much of the rest of the world. those are joe biden's policies in a big way so it is not just energy i think, really, again, as long as we have the covid-era funding coming out of washington that's built into the baseline, i think we need to lower taxes and not raise them as you know, the senate is getting close to -- senate democrats -- into a, quote, slimmed down build back better still a trillion dollars of

taxes i think will drive inflation longer here in america, but i also think it is going to rob money that businesses need to try to fix this supply chain crisis i also think it is going to put the u.s. at a huge economic disadvantage competitively to our foreign competitors. so who raises taxes heading into a recession? you know, who robs money that would be used to fix the supply chain crisis >> yeah. >> it just doesn't make sense. >> and you will hear that our inflation rate -- president biden keeps saying it over and over again, that we are lower, we have a lower inflation rate than the rest of the world. >> yeah. >> and that's patently false, unless you want to talk about -- >> it is >> -- maybe some south american country, zimbabwe or something oec oecd countries we are well above the average rate so that's not true so what we're going to do is not take any of the steps to address

the energy shortage, but we are going to double down on some of the things that probably added to inflation such as another -- how much -- you are saying this one would be a trillion. only a trillion, that's better than - >> about a trillion. >> well, bernie wanted to do 5.5 orb or was it 20 >> in this environment, it is going to end up in higher prices, no question about it then in this build back better slimmed down version is another 145 billion we reported that would land on energy companies, those that produce, that refine. so at the same time the president is tweeting out to gas stations lower your prices, he is pushing for higher taxes that will drive fuel prices higher. again, none of this makes sense, especially in a world where we have a number of countries lowering their taxes to try to tamp down inflation. we have a president just -- again, it is both in ignorance of it. i think he is confused, frankly,

or the administration is -- to be fair, his administration is confused and i think they're very misleading here >> there is a lot of comments that could be -- for example, one of the kplcomments we saw lt week or the week before, record oil production under the biden administration what they really meant was since he's been president we're now at record oil production but there's not overall record production that's happened under the biden administration and it is a talking point that they use. it is not good that's no way to be honest with the american people. >> i agree i just don't think the american people are buying any of this, quote, inflation fighting because they see not just his actions but boasting about, you know, shutting down production and sort of attacking american-made energy look, we have some real solutions here in america on inflation, especially on the fuel prices, if the president would work, frankly, with our

producers here in the u.s., refiners, others i think we could make a difference, but he can't he can't >> no, i know. kevin, so 2024 is a ways off 2022, the election, if the republicans took the house or senate or both or neither or whatever, what would republicans do differently other than just trying to stop a revised build back better or trying to stop this are there concrete things that republicans would try to do to address these problems >> yes >> what? >> yes, it would be first, stop spending so much so get that covid era spending out of the budget. that's continuing to -- it is still there. it is going to fuel more inflation. secondly, we need to reconnect workers to their jobs. we have a real worker crisis here that's driving inflation. rather than raise taxes, we would permanently lower them by making tax cuts and jobs act

permanent. that will give businesses the incentive, including small businesses, to reinvest back in their jobs, in their workers, in new equipment. then, finally, tackling energy prices we would fight to have a green light more american-made energy including reducing, refining, pipelines, investing as you know, the administration is trying to step on the air hose for money that would capitalize american-made energy here there's four concrete areas right off the bat. regulatory burden, i would argue every business is paying more under this president because of regulation that ends up in higher prices, too. >> do you think that your party will be able to snatch defeat from the jaws of -- you've got -- we were playing songs from the 1970, "let it be," "bridge over troubled water. worst start to a stock market since 1970 you know when the last time inflation was this high.

i don't think it was 50 years, but it was 40 or change. so you have all of these things, "wrong direction," that's a new record for people thinking we are heading that way i wonder how republicans are going to screw this up, either in 2022. do you think president trump will be the nominee, former president trump? he may announce soon to try to, i don't know, take people's eyes off the january 6th hearings but is he going to be the nominee? is it good for the republican party? >> so i'm not going to guess what president trump is going to do, but i know what the house republicans are going to do, which is we are going to win back this majority on a very strong economy, pro energy, pro family, pro privacy and border security agenda. here is why, joe look, i think most americans have figured out joe biden's economy is a very cruel economy, and it is those rising prices right now, we are seeing families skipping meals,

eliminating meat, you know, using credit cards for essential purposes 26 million americans have drained their savings accounts to pay for the higher prices, and one out of four report they're delaying retirement under joe biden's economy. these are real issues that crush people it is cruel. i think that's going to drive this november election in a big way. >> what do you think the latest supreme court moves, whether it be open -- concealed carry or whether it is roe v. wade or whether it is climate initiatives, could that cause voters to change their -- what might have been their preference in november of this year could that change it >> so i don't think so look, those are very strongly held single-issue type issues that some voters, you know, will vote solely on that, but most americans, it is their

pocketbook, it is their daily lives, it is the inflation you know, it is just the pessimism. most peamericans think we are already in recession or headed to one soon. they're right. so, yeah, i think those issues will matter for individual voters, but for the most part there's a reason most americans think we are headed in a really bad direction. >> well, the markets are, at least again this morning, congressman. we are down, as you can see now -- maybe you can't see, but we are down again. we will see what the future brings it was -- you know, again, july 4th is a time that used to be just unequivocally for celebration. now even, you know, it was a bittersweet day yesterday, to say the least. >> there's no doubt, there's no doubt. >> i don't know -- it is kind of depressing in certain respect where we are as a country right now. >> yes >> congressman, thanks good to have you on this morning.

>> thanks, joe take care. coming up, jim cramer's first take on the market as we get set for the first trading day of the week and that programming note next hour do not miss an exclusive interview on america's crisis with the chip manufacturer stay tuned and we will be right back

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welcome back to "squawk box. we are looking at a negative open s&p looking to lose just over a percent, 1.1%. 43 points looks like the decline at the opening nasdaq looks to be down 148 points look at the yield curve, something we have been watching closely. the yield on the ten-year has been coming down and the yield curve is at .01, can you imaging. so 1.5 basis points is what separates, you know, having any sort of a slope, if you can even call it that, in inversion at this point >> whenever we talk about it, it doesn't necessarily -- we always say it doesn't necessarily mean a recession. >> right, right, but it adds to the picture this morning >> it is not surprising at all at this point. notsurprising at all at this point, i guess >> absolutely. we have been watching, of course, the decline in the euro. that strengthens the dollar.

that is putting a damper on commodity prices in turn we see resource stocks trade lower pretty much across the board. freeport is down 3 percent as is u.s. steel the bigger picture is concern about demand on -- a slow down in demand on the back of recessionary fears, joe. all of this adding into the pressure we are seeing around the world in terms of equity prices as well as here in the united states. >> let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. i have to say, some depressing thoughts and that was that, yeah, maybe the fed doesn't need to go so far because the market is doing the work for the fed. but either way, you get toa slowdown, stock markets don't like recessions. i guess that's the fear. so the market does it for the fed, that doesn't mean we are out of the soup. >> no, but i do think that it is very difficult to hate a market when interest rates go up and hate a market when interest

rates go down. >> i know. >> the yield curve is flat i'm more bullish when rates go down than when up, and the market says i'm wrong. i'm willing to take that because after we get to a quarter open and finally in the right shape, we will not be faced with endless rate hikes because the fe fed -- as much as we thought jay powell was late, where are the people because all they had to do is come out and make tough talk he has accomplished what he wanted i think the job market will be revealed to be loose that will be the next shoe to fall housing has come down tremendously do not look at your house on si zillow you will be shocked. fed has won already. oil is the last to roll over, looks like it is >> you might be right that friday we could get a data point that shows what we thought was -- i mean there's a piece in

the "journal" about this is like the bizarro world. we had high unemployment and good output but we usually don't have really low unemployment and where output is negative >> right >> maybe instead of the output catching up with the high employment, maybe the high employment catches up. >> i think the high employment catches up with the dollar this strong almost every country in international business has to guide down domestic companies that are health rv care related that do not have a problem with the president -- and that's a very small group. that's mckesson, one of the best performing stocks in the first half look, right now it looks like everything is bad and i'm not going to deny every asset class is getting hurt. the one i'm most interested this is crypto because a lot of people are in crypto which seems to be imploding. it goes from 3 trillion to 1

trill. why should it stop there there's no value there nfts you look at the companies, companies you never heard of and they blew up over the weekend and you say, mholy cow, $6 million have gone down the drain. look, anybody with a come hither rate of investment, the rate that's earned, you can kind of forget about them, and that's what is happening. >> all right jim -- >> how many places can you save? >> we had 13,9 was katie stockton's next bitcoin support level, 13,9. >> what an awful nfts sold to you. made up. >> all right thanks, jim. see you in a couple of minutes we want to remind you about the cnbc investing club. you can sign up to find out more at cnbc.com/investingclub or just point your phone at the code on the screen it is magic. it will take you there "squawk box" will be right back.

the show is over. biontech, i think the company

wanted it to be -- but they gave up. bio and n and tag tech. >> i say bio in tech. >> you do? >> but i don't say it with high conviction. >> nobody knows. rival ben cima maker curevac has sued biontech -- related to mrna technology. curevac has pioneered the development for two decades in the covid-19 vaccine developed by biontech and pfizer relies on that technology. that would be some patent win if they are actually -- because

they have moderna. if they really developed a and these other companies use the technology, pfizer totally was reborn after covid-19. totally. and moderna came out of nowhere. $100 trillion -- of course. >> pencil me with delivering numbers for delivery growth -- joins us now. >> this is a report where there is good news and bad news. the bad news, the numbers were frankly not terribly enthusiastic. but it was pretty much what the market was expecting, 254,000 vehicles, a little over that with deliveries in the second quarter. by the way, the analysts were expected to hundred 61,000, that was the consensus. china production however was limited. nobody is getting in and out of shape about this because they knew these numbers would not be that impressive. the good news, as you look at

production and what they saw in june, it was the best month ever for production according to tesla. they didn't give a number in terms of that production but the best month ever. that is optimism that is going to be what the investors are going to jump on as they look toward quarter to and into the rest of the year. i the way, consensus, still about 1.4 million in total deliveries this year. if you look at shares of tesla, headlined they came out over the weekend, germany sang 59,000 model three and model y are being recalled due to a software issue. that is not expected to be a big deal but it is a recall that is out there, that will get some attention. also keep in mind a little over two weeks from now on the 20th, that is when we get the quarter to results and many believe that we are going to see some depression on the margin given the issues with starting up the berlin and austin plants. and you also have the issue of deliveries being lower than expected because of the china

covid lockdown, limiting production in that country. guys, back to you. >> thanks, here to talk about how and to what degree, tesla could bounce back, gordon johnson, founder and ceo --. who wants to -- gordon, you are on time. go ahead and start. sr is the stock price goes, it is been headed your way in recent months. >> i think when you look at tesla, a company that has a market cab -- the largest nine makers combined but sells 3% of the cars those carmakers sell. from q1, by the way which was flat, i think it is a big disappointment. objectively, tesla has lost their product edge. you look at the number of competitors out there who have similar or better world wore

rank, similar or better charging speeds and are better qualities. tesla second to last in quality and british consumer outfit -- among the least reliable cars. i think the fact is, they lost their product quality edge, deliveries are declining. we talked about market share and china dropping from 17% -- europe dropping from 30% to 15%. but delivery numbers are down and that is a big problem. >> take it away, jean. >> thank you. there is deliveries up 27% year- over-year. that was a disappointment. tesla has been impacted by the macro. deliveries are up 68%. if you adjust for shanghai, it was up call it 32, 45%, something like that. still, deceleration for march.

there is no question from our perspective the tesla is being impacted by the macro. i do have a different perspective. gordon, when it comes to where this ultimately will go. i will pick up on two points. the first is, this losing momentum, we've had this discussion before. gm, the overall units were down 15% year-over-year. surprisingly they delivered 7000 ev's in the u.s. that was down 34% year-over-year. so talking about a 50% growth spread. and i would put it at this perspective. i totally agree, if you believe that in your heart of hearts that tesla is just another carmaker, then it is difficult for you to be comfortable with the valuation. but if you take the perspective this is a deceptive company that is going to have higher growth rates and a massive adjustable market, you get to a point where they can call it -- go from $70 billion-$400 billion of revenue over the next 5 years. just remarkable growth. remember tesla makes cars that

they also make solar -- they are also getting into hvac. i don't think the robot optimas primus should be part of this. but my point is, no other car company is doing this. so to be bound to think about this simply as a car company, this is the bigger picture. >> you want to come back? go ahead, gordon. >> he's made this point many times and i want to stress, 95% of revenue comes from selling cars. the other 5% is coming from an energy division that has negative gross margin. so for a car company, it's dead wrong and when you think about the investment that tesla is doing, think about this. they did a big, huge rollout of these reduction plans, one in texas and one in berlin. and i don't know another car company that has done that. again, company is valued -- the next nine automakers combined but sells 3% of the cars they made. so you need to see hypergrowth.

essential gross. the only market possible is china. 17,000 less cars, essentially in q2. to say they are going, it's just not true. the fact that growth has now declined and they generate revenue and profit from selling cars to china, that is a big problem for them and you have to consider that. one more thing, 1.4 million cars sold now at 20 million cars sold in 2030, which is the number he's referring to. they would literally have to build a 500,000 car plant every single quarter, fully sold out, every single quarter from now through the end of 2030. i think we all know that is absurd. evaluation is absurd and we will see that reflected as we move throughout the year. >> you've got like 10 seconds. >> 10 seconds? i will say, -- seven will be gone in the next decade.

>> we will have you guys back on to talk about i don't know where we get all the components for all the cars. we better start mining that stuff here. >> if it is here. >> exactly. >> is not. >> thank you. markets are down. i would say goodbye, parting is such sweet sorrow. but you will be here tomorrow. >> i sure well. >> make sure you join us. squawk on the street is next. good tuesday morning, welcome to walk on the street. we are all back at post nine. european stocks down a couple percent to add to the selling pressure. the future is red, recession fears continue. copper, seven year low. -- we work our way to jobs friday. the euro, citing to a 20 year