>> we will have you guys back on to talk about i don't know where we get all the components for all the cars. we better start mining that stuff here. >> if it is here. >> exactly. >> is not. >> thank you. markets are down. i would say goodbye, parting is such sweet sorrow. but you will be here tomorrow. >> i sure well. >> make sure you join us. squawk on the street is next. good tuesday morning, welcome to walk on the street. we are all back at post nine. european stocks down a couple percent to add to the selling pressure. the future is red, recession fears continue. copper, seven year low. -- we work our way to jobs friday. the euro, citing to a 20 year low against the dollar.

futures dew point to a lower open. plus energy continues to be a focus. plus a bigger bet on occidental and it could likely be a record search for second-quarter profits. jeff bezos, calling on gas stations to lower prices. much talk of the markets as we are on track to start with a lower open. kind of a quirky week. no real corporate earnings which means the doors are open if you want to pronounce, i guess. >> i think it is a good chance to do it if you want to get out there. i tell you the truth, after what micron said and we have -- on later, there's a whole host of companies that are going to make the quarter. i do find that -- take last night at 7:00 when futures were open. they are looking nicely. and literally, every hour after 4:00 they dropped because the euro is frankly catastrophic. i can't believe the euro --

cells in japan will find themselves way short. >> the euro dropped several dollars and quite significant. certainly since the beginning of the invasion of ukraine. by russia. and they don't have quite as many lovers as we do, potentially as well. >> at what point do we say, you know what, interest rates, when they go up it's bad. we should think about interest rates going down as good. >> at what point do we believe they are going to start to go down? >> they are going down. >> you mean the 10 year? not the fed. >> i'm saying as -- rates go higher, everyone got very gloomy. now rates go down. we went from 2.8 to 3.01 on the 10 year. so now 2.8 and it is equally as

bad. i'm not buying that. i'm not buying this reaction. i do think that if you are j powell you suddenly start thinking, did i win? >> a lot of tweet storms over the weekend. one example where the market is not -- just not giving him room to get done what needs to be done. >> what is it, depression? i think we got a job number that's bad. i'm looking at freeport as you mentioned, the stocks are cut in half. our market, we are such an incredible bear market, it's amazing. one of the most damaging one is crypto where everyone was all in and to $1.3 trillion-$1 trillion. family -- i'm looking at bankruptcy filing of three arrows. three arrows, i mean they had like everybody. >> often is the case, in this echo system, a lot of leverage

perhaps -- many of us might have gathered that would be the case in terms of everything being interconnected. a lot more leverage. >> but that said, it is not bringing down the financial system in any way or shape. our major financial institutions, not really in the crypto game. >> because they refused to take it. >> it's been afforded its own box. there's a lot of wealth destruction but it's not a crisis. >> okay, right. it's not a crisis financially? >> systemically. >> a new generation has been blown out again. whether it be robin hood, and not since they bought -- look, you get up and say to yourself, all right, so when who went under?

up to 40%, that is a pretty good rate to get, right? >> a comehither rate. comehither. >> i'm thinking we had the chairman of the s.e.c. who basically told you, listen, i'm thinking of the great tweet at the bottom -- but don't stay there there. i got out of block like a bat out of hell. but then -- came to the rescue. >> he's the j.p. morgan of crypto. >> how many can you bail out? and where was the bailout? >> all of which is saying what? >> i'm saying it's in front of us. we have 2000 all over again.

but we have 2000 all over again. 600 companies, only a few are going to make it. only a few. >> we've got more -- then walked away from their deal. that deal is over and done with. go up to your separate corner and say no harm, no foul. >> nobody has to pay anybody anything. the clock is still moving on all of these. the money is all in the vault? >> how do you think people are trying to get 40%? but i heard something that worries me. i heard something and i'm going to say it's not true. katie, you may be transferring coverage to apple. >> it's funny you are saying

this. notes up and coming in, not with her name on it and i said, we've got to hear from katy. well who's the new person? >> that would be upsetting to me. because katie is incredibly rigorous. i'm still saying -- >> is a hard to find out? can we call her? her number is right there. >> of course. call her. just call her. you want me to do it now or wait until commercial? you want me to wait until commercial or call her now? >> but the phone number in and that commercial we will dial it. >> morgan stanley said there's been deceleration. >> that is in keeping with the negativity. even david much wanted stock on exxon and the follow-up of exxon doing better, and exxon is going down. what does it say? it's a financial asset. and financial assets are going down. your house is going down. crypto is going down. bonds are going down. what's going on? the cost of everything. that is really a great situation. >> you know, there is possibility the minerals are

going to go down. >> is that why some of these charts that are analogs to the 70s are making the rounds? >> the people really think -- they didn't live through the jimmy carter. read the crisis of confidence speech. that was a tough year. >> it was. >> he was saying we had no belief in ourselves. i think a lot of people don't believe in themselves. >> each administration will be blamed for the economy over which it resides, whether there's a lot of responsibility or no. but the one thing you can do is provide confidence. that is free. >> confidence is free. >> i'm not sure that a lot of it is being imparted right now. >> you have a lot of guys like jeff bezos slamming the present. and you say to yourself, one guy in the free world -- and the other guy is crafting some sort of terrible gridlock in washington.

jeff bezos is powerful, the president is not powerful. we are in error like when jay gould was telling grant he's got to buy more gold. your member? >> you think this generation of entrepreneurs who build empires in this country can be purveyors of confidence, or do they also benefit from 20 years, 30 years of cheap money? >> i think they are conveyors of confidence. >> that means a great deal. >> not as much is every hedge fund manager out there there. everybody finds himself saying, what do i do? >> you make your point. i jumped in. >> i'm just saying that there are business leaders that actually have confidence in. i know that bezos is actually right. bezos is speaking a lot of rationality. is absolutely right.

the president is absolutely wrong about about -- it does not pay to say, you know what, nothing we can do. you can't shrug your shoulders endlessly like jimmy carter did and say, there's nothing we can do. >> does that set you up for a post-midterm bounce? >> yes. i would like you earlier but we have to have all the numbers. we have to have the numbers cut severely in a lot of cases. >> we have multiples trading down. some are extraordinary low. double digits from several companies that have significant earnings. at least we think so. but businesses not technology- related. >> we are starting getting the tech -- but we've got logistics that are going down. the fact that oil is going down at a time when ukraine and russia, and the fact is that china is coming back online, is

a curiosity to me. unless you say the russians have been able to sell enough oil to india and to china. >> it does seem to be the case right now. unless the plan were to become reality, which seems unlikely. >> it is a global commodity, back to the earlier conversation. there's not much you can do. >> it was up this morning. when i got up this morning at an ungodly hour of course -- >> i'm on five hours. i was a bit like kramer time. >> everything was up. come back to newmarket and it's like, secure the windows, take away the belts. give me your shoelaces. >> seems like we are going to

ask the same question, when is it going to end? >> it's going to end after everybody reports and we take a look and see who is still standing. then we start getting confidence. we need every estimate cut. we need as target cuts. we need to have sent a memo to come on and say it is a new flash market and it is going higher. and you know what he's going to say? know, the opposite. >> he said early last week. i'm aware. >> he didn't say last week, he said on our show. >> coming up, an exclusive talk about supply chain and the announcement from la wsteek. taking a look at futures, light calendar on corporate earnings this week but we will have the job number for june on friday when we come back in a moment. so you partner with ibm consulting to bring together data and workflows so that every driver and merchandiser

can serve up jalapeño, sesame, and chocolate-covered goodness with real-time, data-driven precision. let's create supply chains that have an appetite for performance. ibm. let's create. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

there's a reason comcast business powers matc more businesses thantion. any other provider. actually, there's a few... comcast business offers the fastest, reliable network... the protection of securityedge™ and the most reliable 5g network. want me to keep going? i can... whether your small business is starting or growing, you need comcast business. technology solutions that put you ahead. get a great offer on internet and security, now with more speed and more bandwidth. plus find out how to get up to a $650 prepaid card with a qualifying bundle. this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going?

yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. a busy weekend and busy week for the auto business. let's get to philip. >> the numbers increase 31.5%. keep in mind it is in comparison with june of last year. that was the first month where the chip shortage really hit home for ford. cells were down by 27% last year. so we are getting to that period where it is choppy comparisons year after year. tick up sales up 26.3% for ford. but what the market is focused

on, what is happening with the ramp-up in production and deliveries of electric vehicles. in june, ford's ev sales, up 76%, totaling 4353. no where close to where production and sales will ultimately be. but that is the metric people will be focused on month after month as we move through the rest of this year. guys, back to you. >> appreciate that. we will talk to you again, i have no doubt. >> there is demand for something. when i speak to jim farley, the ceo, i think he feels like many ceos in the country. it doesn't really matter what i do. there is a developing sense of, it is out of my hands when it comes to the market. because people who say you do something good and yeah but wait till the next quarter. it will be bad. david, there is a pervasive wound that says even as the numbers are good, you just wai . >> i think it is true and i think if you are him or mary

barra and presiding over an enormous transportation of your business, you just have to keep going if you are a full believer in it. and moving ahead and you know that you have the financial wherewithal to do it but not really worry about your stock- price. >> i think jim farley is always going to be worried because he's a responsible, terrific ceo, as is mary barra. but it is out of their hands. >> it is better when your stock is 40, rather than 11, no doubt. >> this is why he is my partner. this is what it is about. 40 more than 11? carl, i can't top that. >> 40 is more than 11. >> the guys from three arrows, this is the first time you have -10. it could be worth -10. >> you would have to pay them if you're involved in some way? >>, -- no, let's get it over with. >> we say every day is not

going to happen. >> i'm going to go home. >> for these quick cycles, this may not be one of them. >> i'm not saying it is a quick cycle. >> he wakes up and sent a memo that basically it is the worst of times, this is the worst of times. the economy is a twist on dickens whose everybody -- every bit as good as stephen king. >> one of the worst down terms in history. >> not since the civil war. >> it certainly doesn't make you feel confident. >> no, no. he was around for the financial crisis. he wasn't there for the. dot com. >> if they sell --.

>> the fireplace number. >> the chimney that tesla is talking about. which is very much like the shield. >> so david, j powell just did an interview. what he says is, you know, david -- is going to be me. that makes a lot of sense. >> a lot of people feel, even i agree i was late. >> you were late, mr. chair. >> don't interrupt me. but in november i said it, and i've done some tough rate hikes. i'm going to do one more and i'm going to walk away. what you think happens? >> you think he will be late

from november but is not going to be laid on the other side? >> if he does the 100 basis points -- the hedge fund, that's bad. but let's say he goes, we do 50 and then we wait. you know what? you would say, mr. chairman, you would address them, you would say mr. chairman, that is a very bullish scenario. to which he would say i don't have any comment but i will tell you we don't see a need to continue to race. so then tenure goes to 26. >> a lot of the work has been done. you can take that from that wright there. >> thank you for that excellent interview. >> you are welcome. it is a pleasure to see you. >> you can go back to your helicopter -- and he finished

by saying, i enjoyed that documentary about chevron. that was really good. >> we have chevron on the road in the uk. two chevrons apart. who knew. >> the things you learned. for the cars that are selling, uk registrations are the lowest since the early '90s. >> isn't that amazing? what is happening. get over it. you are going to be fine. we will get to elon musk, both delivery numbers and the comment about money furnaces that j.p. morgan has to take on today. we will get to kramer's mad dash and we will countdown the opening bell in about nine minutes. yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment.

and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

only at vanguard you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means that your priorities are ours too. our interactive tools and advice can help you build a future for the ones you love. that's the value of ownership.

as gym set, we got some decent putrefaction overnight. and reports there was a virtual call with yellen and her chinese counterpart who said it was constructed. we will talk to micron ceo about his announcement last week, to talk about what earnings season may look like in the chip this is. in the chip this is. don't go anywhere. every search you make, every click you take, every move you make, every step you take, i'll be watching you.

the internet doesn't have to be duckduckgo is a free all in one privacy app with a built in search engine, web browser, one click data clearing and more stop companies like google from watching you, by downloading the app today. duckduckgo: privacy, simplified. to adapt in the changing world, you could hire a professor of theoretical mathematics. we all know this equation, right? he'd crunched numbers day and night. that's it. to maximize profitability. morning. i have quarterly numbers that are beautiful. and forecast revenue from every corner of your organization.

is that important? or you could use workday. the finance hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. for a solve problems like a genius world. workday. for a changing world.

we got tarted with trading with less than three minutes at the new york stock exchange and many other places as well. let's get to the mad dash. interesting thing to do, hpe as part to -- >> i wanted to do it ahead of time because of what it's about, it is called no drama downgrade.

but hp has been one of the better performers of the year. basically they are talking about a dramatic shortfall in the pc units. people thought there might be 325, 350 million units. the buyback, they have spent a fortune. again, that is what we want to hear about. and we think once -- we know it is severe and i come back with this. it doesn't say it but it turned out to be pandemic stuff. >> enormous amount of demand for pcs. people were upgrading at home to work from home and now they don't need to any longer. but you don't think it is also a reflection of what is going on in the economy more broadly? >> but i'm saying when you look at this, there was -- they over

earned, so to speak. now what you are trying to do is figure out, what is a company that may have down earnings worst. that is really the problem with this market. but i was a hedge fund manager and never bought a stock they had down earnings because basically you are taught it means cell. you see this company, which is a very good company see it stock go down and no one is going to try to stop it. nobody is going to get in front of this freight train. >> it is the way it is. >> momentum one way and momentum the other. >> pc markets are set to contract. one thing i would say as we were talking during the break, commodities are going down. commodities it go into -- the surfactant commodities that go into soap and shampoo are going down. but then the dollar is going up against all these currencies where you have --. struggle to

find something positive. and i want to be constructive, david. it is very hard to be constructive. >> the euro, 20 year low against the dollar. basically, 3% awaken parity. what is the compare ready -- >> theoretically, --. let's say you import a lot of stuff. but does that help against the collapse that happened while you were away? >> yes. no, what is the question, jim?

what was the embedded question, there? >> what i said, a lot of companies used to buy when the dollar was strong because they import a lot. but now we import in china and it doesn't matter because there's terrorists and all sorts of other things. so is saying it doesn't offset the problem. i was trying to give you -- >> cole is down sharply late last week as the buyer did not materialize or was not actionable. financing was not the issue as it has been perhaps with other deals or at least is becoming a concern giving the expense and the fact that many banks that is stepped up for commitments previously are finding when they are syndicating loans, they are doing so at significant losses. here, was a reflection of potentially, as we might have imagined, buyer saying, why do i want to owe this thing in a recession? >> we are definitely here in terms of the holdings on

fridays low of 37.52. maybe an inside day. jim, we will see. oil is down four bucks. the last time we got below 100 jim was back in may, may 11th. and the recent 101 on june 22nd. it's interesting if we got double-digit whale. but we re starting to see people come out and say, oil could come down a lot. a lot of these people seem to be bizarre trend followers. when oil was up, it was 150 but now oil breaks down. the one thing i will say about will breaking down is be careful. is not like the supply side is not growing and the demand-side in our country and in china could be growing. >> jeff curry today said they are sticking with one 40. you can't count on the third of russian production to be there. >> that guy is not a fair weather friend. he has shown great action the whole time we've had him on.

>> he comes on a lot. >> he reminds me of mike wilson. people are so angry. you know mike wilson was negative last year? me a break. mike wilson saved a lot of money and i think jeff curry is going to be right because i just don't see us ramping up supplied. >> $12.1 million a day, it is back to april of 2020 level. and we are going higher from here. >> we are back to 2000 -- >> we are not growing at the level the president wants. or the president would stop this with the petroleum reserve. >> i have the question -- will the commodity come down sharply? >> it is more fungible than it used to be. >> somehow u.s. production -- yet we produce here and sell abroad. >> as jeff bezos would say, --

>> that's an important conversation that is not being had. >> he has because people want to say they are scalping and there is collusion. but the government doesn't say there is collusion. >> the lost a lot of money when the price of oil was very low and they are making a great deal of money now. perhaps as much as $18 million. it is a big number. still not apple earnings. so to buy the point of making more money than god, apple is making way more. >> god doesn't make the playoffs. >> we will see. 1530, baby. >> i'm just saying. i knew you would go there. >> how many strikeouts did he have? >> he pitch the other day.

>> he did throw 100 miles an hour about seven times. >> let's go back. >> happy bobby bonita day. did he finally pay off his son? let's pretend the market actually can have a reversal today. i say that because now you start to get to the country club beach group -- people are like, stay away from him, stock guy. i think we have a really oversold yet and i don't want days there's not a lot of news is weak and i just don't want to think we are in the same place as europe. we are a much better position than europe. >> the german economic minister

is talking about who gets priority in a emergency, it is private households. where that leads bmw and quite frankly, tesla, right? they will ramp up production. >> it is very hard to do. a lot of people want to believe -- i don't blame them. >> obviously they got hit by the shanghai and demand in china. >> but june was the best. >> it's getting better. at what point do they hit a price while the where it becomes almost unaffordable for people? or not? >> i don't think so. >> you don't? >> i don't think so. >> the average price of an automobile now is $43,000 or something like that. the average price of any auto is as high as it's ever been.

tesla, -- >> i paid 32 for my maverick. by the way, j.p. morgan on that money furnace remarked that elon musk said, no ak was held in conjunction with that remark, leading to modeling implications on clear. but they cannot be positive for you to consensus aps. the target is 385. >> i find it exhausting. text the -- tesla, you want to know what story comes out best, the truck is good. but they are still killing it. here is what bothers me, again, about it. rates go down, nobody likes it. china opens up, nobody cares. mike might be able to help us because china really killed it. and shares were lower this morning and there were really disappointing guidances and a warning of a weakening consumer

demand. actually i have to tell you, it was one of the worst outlooks in a long, long time. but maybe things don't have to be affordable as they were. i need one line that is positive. i will take anything. anything that is positive. >> i will tell you that in the face of the weaker consumer demand, and the macroeconomic uncertain environments, -- in terms of limiting supply and executing hopefully to build demand and supply by the 2023. and auto, the long-term demands are heavy. we delivered record quarter and are on way to deliver record for the year. but certainly related to consumer demand --. but the

long-term of ai, all these trends, really need more memory and more storage. >> so i look at your numbers and you can correct me but i look at micron, 55% as opposed to pc. mobile consumer, which is large, dirty five, infrastructure. you've been moving very quickly. auto center data, i really like. is there a chance you can see 40%? >> you make a good point here. nearly 60% of our business, 55 to 60% is smart phones, pc and consumer market. and by 2025, we target to actually have more than 60% in

high-growth market, such as data center, automotive, industrial application, and these are also, many of them are the types of markets that have higher stability in terms of profitability as well. we are well on our way because we have technology leadership. we have momentum that products -- more than 50% year-over-year growth in the data center market for --. in fact we had more than 100% growth in a data center market. we have strong momentum we are building with the product. so yes, we are extremely focused on shifting our product portfolio to what we call high value solutions. and making great progress on

that line. >> i want to hear that people are buying stock. be aware that many are sellers. and one of the reason there are many sellers is people feel like china won't come back. but you and i both know that china was in a very special situation and it is very possible right now that china is better than it was during most of your quarter. and i being optimistic. >> six months ago we saw of course an impact on china in terms of over demand, --. considering three months ago, our outlook for fourth quarter, have been lowered due to weakness in china. by about 30% reduction in demand, unfortunately by chinese headquarters. this has all an impact of 10%

on consolidated revenue for the fourth quarter. so as the covid lockdown situations improve in china and -- as well to drive consumer demand. then yes, china market, over time. in our industry, we begin with a certain part of the segment primarily in pc and smart phone at this point, it takes a couple of quarters to work through and we have taken also, action, for supply growth. this helps us with asset management. because literally it is highly cost-effective and we can use to supply the demand next year. and we can reduce our supply growth. and yes, be able to meet the demand that we project. so sometime in fiscal year 23 we expect to see a balance in

the stores and the industry to get back on the long-term demand trend for flash. >> it is david, that is an important point i think. and again, you mentioned some of the things you are doing. you are also using inventory as a way to navigate through this period of demand weakness. why is it past experience that tells you it is in the middle of next year that things balance out? >> certainly the macroeconomic environment this past january, as you know, it impacts all industries. so clearly my macroeconomic environment will be a factor. what i'm saying is, in one market segment -- typically it takes a couple quarters to work through and for things to come down. and beyond that, of course, the macroeconomic environment will

be a factor as well. at this point, i'm sharing youth you the best visibility we have and of course we continue to work closely with customers across the market segment in terms of expanding how macroeconomic environment is playing out, and market applications.

we said in our earnings call last quarter we turned share buyback plus dividends

this quarter, we intend to be more aggressive. so turning back to healthy demand/supply environment. in our industry, it's not only about demand, it's also about demand, and long-term trends are secular in nature, with a.i., 5g, data centers, all -- micron is -- >> well, sanjay, you get that up to 60, 70, i know -- and then you're absolutely right, and you have to buy, sanjay mehrotra, ceo of micron. you were much more positive here than on the conference call. i tend to make you see positive, but i think that was a good run-through, and i thank you so much. >> thank you, jim, thank you the dow is down -- the long

bond, 3.05, haven't seen a dip below -- micron one of the dozen or so s&p names, only one dow name is green. that's nikes we'll be right back

we have the dow down almost 600, all the sectors on the s&p are red. energy down about 2 1/2. about 3752, we are right at friday's intraday low, about a half hour into the trade we're back in a moment

jim, what's on mad tonight >> best and worst for the first half, obviously well dominated, i wouldn't be surprised if oil doesn't find a level, but not today. today is just a day of despair, a little despair. >> nowhere near the may lows. >> no, no, but -- >> you're taking this very hard.

>> we have a lot of people who want the stock market higher and feel there's no hope. >> hope is not lost. >> crypto is lost, believe me. >> that may be true. >> what's our company called bald >> actually they knew they weren't going to be a vault. >> we'll see you tonight, jim. >> i'm not giving up the idea of being constructive >> the day you give that up, you'll let us know. >> that's retirement day. >> july 13th was my day. >>. "mad money" tonight at 6:00. dow is down 611.

good tuesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla here with sara eisen and david faber the dow is down 630, the s&p below friday's low we're at 3745. virtually every sector is red, as recessionary fears continue.

>> we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers, startistar ing stellantis the stock is done about 7% the best performing stock year to date would be occidental petroleum. warren buffett's berkshire hathaway adds mob -- more to its stake in the company. and of course the euro against the dollar sliding to a 20-year low, inching closer, guys, parity, 1 to 1, euro to dollar we've seen it before in the beginning of the life of the euro the problem today? recession concerns in europe, even worse than recession concerns in the u.s. it's just looking increasingly

like the ecb cannot hike rates nearly as much as the federal reserve. with a puny 25 basis points. the fed has already gone 150 basis points clearly the money is coming out of europe and into the u.s. dollar, but of course, guys, you want a weaker currency, right? it helps with exports. you don't want a sharply sliding 20-year low currency, because you get all sorts of concerns about the euro has been a failed experiment >> it's survived the european dead crisis. christine lagarde is in there as president of the ecb, she's a massive proponent of a stronger euro and europe, i mean the cohesion of the economic bloc. so they're going to lay out how they're going to deal with some of the fragmentation, where

italian yields spike, german yields go down, and have been paper over that. we learned that from mario draghi, whatever it takes, but it's also going to hurt american corporate earnings think about how many businesses get their revenues from europe mondoleze has a huge presence in europe >> we've been spending so much time thinking about how companies are exposed to china, now we're going to think about how they're exposed to europe. we'll get some earnings this week, that will add to the debate if we're on the fast road to a recession steve liesman has more for us. good morning, steve. >> hey, good morning he the debate over recession or

slower growth gets hotter this week with a series of reports, all ending on friday with this job report there's been a bit of weakness in ism we'll see if it shows up the fed machines will discuss that 75 basis point hike and jobless claims, a big cursor if we are indeed head to go recession. jobless claims are among a recession's leading indicator. payroll goes up around the time recession begin. that's because t-- deutsche basi and this time it will be due to domestic demand, and jpmorgan counters that jobless claims have only modestly drifted higher, an encouraging -- the

crux that our economy will not fall into recession and the -- >> on payrolls, the dow jones surveys of economists looks for a fairly steep step downward, 250,000, hoof the average for the first half, but the number would still be strong for normal times. finally, there's going to be plenty of noise in the jobs data, the norm at -- education worker in the summer and fall, it's been thrown out of whack, and it looks like thousands, maybe tens of thousands have gotten visas to work summer jobs in the u.s this is the source of a reversion versus slowdown tension. guys, back to you. >> interesting, steve. have we ever gotten a technical recession, and employment holds

up is that possible it is such a tight labor market, it's hard to imagine we're in a recession with skrobs so plentiful. >> it's a agree question, this idea of a job-ful recession, i don't think you can have strong jobs, and still call it a recession. they use in part what happens to the jobs market as one of the signals to date the beginning of the recession, if you stay down 4% or below, it's going to be hard for us to call this more of a recession rather than a slowdown sara, beneath your desk on the lower level you have a parity party hat to go? >> i don't they trap that down. maybe i'll get one

it would be a huge deal. >> thank you, teve let's turn to the broader markets this morning, dow is down 625 the sectors are all red. joinses us is darrell kronk, and y yurrien timer. guys, i think last time -- it sounds like you don't think atlanta -- >> in fact, it's continued to deteriorate year we'll get june numbers that will like lie do he tierate, so we're likely to put in a technical recession in place, and then probably something north of a

negative 2%. turn the page, what's interesting, carl, none of the indicators are suggesting good things i think the real story is in the bond mark. the 2 and 10 spread is one basis point away from inverting. high-yield spreads have gone up 50% in the last 30 days, so 400 to over more or less 600 basis points over. and why didn't about 70 basis points in the last week. so the bond market is telling you more than the stock market is right now. >> that's a great point, jurrien. i worner for you think actual macro indicators are starting to ratify it? >> well, they are starting to. we're clearly in a deep late cycle motor. the fill stimulus from 2020 and 2021 has turned into a fiscal

drag we're obviously all waiting for bated breath with the second quarter earnings season. it looks like that investors are selling first and asking questions later. the market is fairly valued at 16 times forward earnings, but that's only as good as the forward earnings, and so the earnings side i think is the next big thing as you just pointed out, high yield is the canary in the coal mine right now, because the cost of capital is starting to fall used as the worries transition from inflation to growth, and so treasuries yields, mortgage rates, everything is starting to come down except for the yield on the index that one is rising that clearly is a divergence that certainly me as a chartist, is looking very closely at. >> carl, i guess a lot of the negativity you spelled out, my

question is, why isn't that bullish? we didn't like high inflation, we didn't like high bond yields, that's all coming down now, because the fed is doing what it's supposed to do. sure, recession is not good, but bond yields moving south at some point, is that not bullish >> to your point, sara, it depends on wile d. the long side is coming down because of concerns of pulling out any growth premium, which i think is what's happening here lately, that's suggesting recession is -- don't forts, to the points made earlier, really the most aggressive central bank on the planet, the ecb hasn't been -- but the -- they're still holding firm on yield control. china is the most dovish central bank on the planet

we still have work to do relative to earnings season, you're probably going to get 11%, 12% earnings growth, which could be the first quarter the moderation, and i think we need to watch forward consensus, because i think the post-q2 conference calls, the sell site numbers are going to get ratcheted down. >> finally, do you think the next four weeks or so will be about earnings, or do you think there's room to go from a 16 world to a 14 world? >> i think it could be bo both. >> the p.e. is only as good as the "e." we went from 23 times the expected earnings to 16 times. 16 is the right number, but that's based on 10% earnings growth if the earnings side ends up

being less than 10%, then the market needs to derate first, and then right now it's been a valuation market, if you then also get the "e" on top of that, that pe ends up at a lower price. my sense is investors will haircut that 16, because they don't feel confidences that the "e" is going to hold so maybe 14 is the new 16. then if earnings season surprises to the up side, which it very well could pertains of high inflation have actually produced pretty good earnings, because they're considered in nominal terms, so maybe then we'll gethe material for a bounceback. but i think at this point investors are selling first, waiting to see if those numbers will hold.

thank you both we'll talk soon. treasury secretary yellen holding a virtual call with the chinese vice premier today, as president biden is potentially set to roll back some of the -- eunice yoon joins us. >> reporter: secretary yellen brought up the impact on the ukraine war, and what washington seen as beijing's unfair prices, and the vice premier brought up what it believes of mistreatment of the companies there is a growing expectation that president biden is considering a potential reduction or removal of trump-era tariffing in his fight

against inflation as early as potential this week. taking to suppliers here as well as business folks, people are saying this would be very good news for them. in some cases the impact would be immediate they also would foresee greater orders so president biden, though, the choice isn't as clear-cut. some economieses believe the overall impact if there were a rollback, would not be so meaningful barclays tips a one-time drop. there are also consideration for president biden, mainly because he could potentially look weak on china, especially if china doesn't give something in return the foreign mince trisaid china's position has always been clear, the cancellations of all

tariffs on china will benefit both china and the u.s. and the world. in other words, china has always been right on this issue, that the tariffs have been a bad idea back to you guys >> i know u.s. retailers eunice, are crossing their fingers this happens. after the break, we will hit the move in oil prices wti down sharply today, technically in a bear market, which means it's 20% off the highs. the energy sector is getting slammed. we're sitting on top of the sell-off every sector is lower now. as i mentioned, nergy, financials, utilities and industrials. a big show is ahead. don't go anywhere. leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

every search you make, every click you take, every move you make, every step you take, i'll be watching you. the internet doesn't have to be duckduckgo is a free all in one privacy app with a built in search engine, web browser, one click data clearing and more stop companies like google from watching you, by downloading the app today. duckduckgo: privacy, simplified.

joining us is daniel yergen, also author of "the new map. jeff bezos getting involve in terms of rightly so, perhaps, give us your take and what is going on, in terms of prices

tess pump, appeared where they're going to be going. >> that's a lot of things to cover, we have a gee on those have all come together to and vladimir putin has move the break the alliance, so all of that is happening. the u.s. was getting to help our refi

refineries there's very little that the administration could do now. what is your sense particularly in europe, where there could be a true energy crisis, or natural gas prices are 5, 6, 7 sometimes hire he

went so far to talk about a lehman brothers-style and it just takes time. >> do you think we'll see any change in supply the saudi it was a phone call, now they're going to get a visit. obviously there are other strategic questions, such as iran, but of course it is about oil. our concern is when we look at the numbers, there isn't a lot of spare capacity, as it's called, in saudi arabia, neighboring uae, so i think we'll see a step up in saudi

oil, but there's not a gusher there waiting to be uncapped but i think for him to go there is a really big deal from the saudi point of view, and i think he's only there for a day or so, but i think they know they have to deliver something on the oil front, at least to affect the psychology of the oil market >> it seems unlikely that the white house would go without knowing what deliverables there are. we have a piece this morning about russia implementing maintenance on nord stream 1. >> the russians are very stra strategic. understand this market, so very convenient and saying, oh, our compressors aren't working, and

then we have to do maintenance, but there may be longer, there's been a north strnord stream has so no question that putin is playing a squeeze game here. there are other pressures, apparently a strike in norway that will reduce gas, but who knows what he's doing. he's said it he wants to create social instability and will bring populist governments to -- and a change in elites, as he put it look at france, where the national front went from -- they're a pro-putin party. >> it's having a lot of reverb rise daniel, you do expect over time that russia will no longer be a super power, and why.

>> absolutely. i think russia will lose its most important market, europe. it will continue to be a significant producer it will be much more closely tied to china but i think the notion that it's a super poweller with political cloud putin has undercut that. this is. >> yeah, for scherr. daniel, thank you. >>. thank you. tesla is under some pressure 656 will be the closest, and as the chip shortages and covid lockdown weighed on production a lot more ahead don't go anywhere.

sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. for a accelerate your decision-making world. workday. for a changing world. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. if you have this... and you get this...

you could end up with this... unexpected out-of-pocket costs. so if you're on medicare, or soon to be, consider this. an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. and what it doesn't pay for, like deductibles and copays, could add up to thousands of dollars. medicare supplement plans help by paying some of what medicare doesn't... and making your out-of-pocket costs a lot more predictable. call unitedhealthcare now and ask for your free decision guide. medicare supplement plans also let you see any doctor. any specialist. anywhere in the u.s. who accepts medicare patients. take charge of your health care today. consider adding this. call unitedhealthcare today about an aarp medicare supplement plan. lemons. lemons, lemons, lemons.

look how nice they are. the moment you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those, lovely, lemony, lemons. ♪ and never wonder if you got a good deal. because you did. ♪

the smh is on pay for what would be the sixth negative session in a row this, of courses of course, coming as last micron reported what was reported as disappointing guidance the ceo sanjay mehrotra joined us to talk about how to keep pricing firm >> this helping us, because it's hi highlysh b. we can predeuce the supply growth, so sometime in our fiscal your 23, would you would expect it would be restored and back on the long-term demand trends, for

d-ram and -- >> getting back to a more balanced, sara, supply/dee matched equation >> he did say this time is different, because he said the semis are in much better shape. >> that they can respond much more quickly, and their end markets are somewhat more resilient than in the mast >> i would just know, ark innovations just went positive, so maybe the benefactor of lower interest rates, some of the beating-down makes -- moderna, datadog, roblox, some of these biotech nails. >> amazon as well. >> meta is up also >> we'll see if nasdaq -- it is

the most more trading. we're in a bad news is good news kind of world now some of the biggest laggards on the dow, as we head to break, only one dow stock is positive united health care is the biggest drag things that are tied to the economy, the cyclicals, assing there increasing worry about recession in europand e the u.s. here wack in two minutes here on "squawk on the street. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done.

i'm okay.

good morning, i'm kristina partsinevelos. the weapon used in the highland

mark shooting was legally obtained a 22-year-old man described by police as a person of interest is in custody. two police officers were shot during an independence day fireworks show and concert in philadelphia last night. one officer was struck in the white shoulder, another had a graze wound to the head. both officers were released from the hospital this morning. finland and sweden are moving a step closer to being a member of nato all nato members will be asked to ratify the pacts, a formality that could take months. we are a bit off of the opening lows, at 3749 on the s&p, that was pretty much or worse day in about three weeks, but we have recovered just a touch. mike santoli is here to talk about the open and the

broad-based weakness. >> broad-base d that's been one theme clearly washing over from europe that's when the overnight futures really buckled, pretty much i think rushing to a forgone conclusion, some depth of recession likely there, and i think that's what we're trying to observe very similar story it's looking like previous recession scares at this point in terms of what's going priced in, you know >> have the estimates coming down materially? >> they have started coming

down, especially outside of commodities, in other words, they have reset to a fair degree the other party expects them to come down we don't know how much of the top line of the economy has come in, and we also just don't know if a lot of this spending slowdown has been more isolated or not? finally, the price of stocks will likely turn before estimates turn higher, so yes.

>> these are not really cyclically geared companies, but also you don't know if that's where the short interest is, and people are reducing positions all around at some point, yields being lower, people reorienting themselves for a slow growth world does get, on a relative basis, those things performing a bit better it could be as simple as that. >> it's the higher rates that crushed those valuations more than anything. >> higher rates that came along with the idea that we'll have an economy running hot. we'll see if they have gone down enough semis have really been it is cyclical part of tech that have been hurt the most. >> mike, thank you see you later. jeff bezos taking aim at president biden, after to cut their prices bezos tweeting out -- ouch,

inflation is far too important a problem for the white house to keep making statements like this it's either straight ahead misdirection or de-understanding of basic economics we have pointed out that that is correct, the gas station owners don't really control the price of oil it's determined by the market, i do wonder why bezos keeps calling out the president, if he's just standing up for corporate america, of course, we don't know it's interesting that he's been more vocal, by the way, he's correct. we know that, and again, i don't know the answer to the queion that he's posing there, but, yeah, i don't know >> can you imagine him trying to run for some sort of office? he's still executive chair of amazon, but he is no longer ceo, maybe he just has more time on his hands. >> spending more time in d.c.?

>> yeah. >> he still owns "the washington post." i'm not sure speaking more vocal accelerates public trust in institutions like media, but i do wish he would be more specific about what it is. there are charts to back it up why that leads to a higher price at the pump. by the way, aaa average price is now down 21 straight days, longest since april of 2020. back to 103, could brea the low -- so it's actually moving in the president's favor not sure if it's quick enough to have an impact on the midterm elections, but it is moving the other way, because we are now worried about recession. staying with amazon, deirdre bosa is looking at andy jassy. that was one year ago he took over for bezos, succeeding a founder never easy

>> never easy. in this case it's hard to imagine a more challenging first year he took over just as amazon was exiting over capacity issues, he would lose several key executives like dave clark who ran the core e-commerce business, and over that first year, amazon has shed some 650 billion there's in market value. it just closed out its worst quarter since 2000 how much could investors blame jazzie he was running amazon web services, which was see growth reaction sell race however it was likely he was working closely with others and had a hand in things like union messaging, which has been a series of miscalculations that led to an historic win for one union at the staten island warehouse. the bigger question for investors is can he fix they

issues we know the history, it went on to sell more than just books to become the behemoth that it is today this time it may be the vast capacity and logistics network that, yes, will lead to billions in but could also put amazon in a winning position, plus the company, don't count out advertising. it's been quietly building that business, which is twice the size of snap, combined, as you mentioned, the stock is up today. i feel like i just did an on the other hand a la jon fortt. >> and communications service as a group about to go positive in the s&p.

deirdre is coming up to "techcheck." we will talk to shake shack founder, as they scrap plans to go public. the market is still down about 1.5%, the nasdaq is improving. that's what folks are watching, as treasury yields go lower. the dow is still down almost 2%, though, and stmo dow stocks are lower. we'll be right back. if you have this... and you get this... you could end up with this... unexpected out-of-pocket costs. so if you're on medicare, or soon to be, consider this. an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan

from unitedhealthcare. medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. and what it doesn't pay for, like deductibles and copays, could add up to thousands of dollars. medicare supplement plans help by paying some of what medicare doesn't... and making your out-of-pocket costs a lot more predictable. call unitedhealthcare now and ask for your free decision guide. medicare supplement plans also let you see any doctor. any specialist. anywhere in the u.s. who accepts medicare patients. take charge of your health care today. consider adding this. call unitedhealthcare today about an aarp medicare supplement plan.

lemons, lemons, lemons. the world is so full of lemons. when you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those lemons, for less.

panera bread and danny meyers' stack have officially terminated their partnership, ending their agreement to take pa public again, citing market conditions just the latest in a slew of businesses calling off deals like this. joining us is danny mire, union square hospitality group ceo, shake shack founder and

chairman danny, what was it, two weeks ago we were on together? take us through the decision well, you know, you asked the question, which is why i wanted to irk isle back and be with you today, sara. we started the filing process all the back in november with each suctionive month, we had to put it back on the shelf. as you know, better than anybody. they have only got worse and more volatile. it's not a company like panera would want to understandably like an ipo into big, ironically is pretty damn good i know that from being in a restaurant business, obviously

the market has been applying much, much lower valuations on the companies, and probably you're right, inflation has quite a bit to do with that. >> what happens now to your spac talk us through the timeline you have a few months to do another deal, find a target, do a merger, before you have to give back money. >> i kind of field like, amongst or three big assets that we continue to have right now, we continue to have a treasury of almost $300 million, and that's intact that has not been hampered by the market we also have an extraordinary board of directors, and we've had eight months with that, we can do a lot as you may recall, what we did was to find a structure that

overcame a lot of the natural problems with the spac process in and of itself we co-created a process whereby we would not need to raise a pipe or de-spaccing, and we're excited to create that kind of thinking in the next go-around are you going to look at other places you mentioned the restaurant sector had been really hit heart, in terms of the multiples. are you going to look elsewhere? how are you thinking about that process right now? >> yeah, so when we launched it in the first place, food and beverage was not our primary focus, nor is it now as a matter of fact, it surprised us that panera came along. our primary focus, was, is, and will always be to identify a company whose culture is employee first, which we call

lightened hospitality, led by an incredible management team the fact that panera came along was amazing. it happened to be in an area that many of us on our boor know quite a bit about. we'll be happy to look at consumer businesses, software companies, any business that is led by an extraordinary leadership team that is a leader within its niche, whatever that may be, is one we'll be interested in. >> yeah, we'll see if the market opens up danny, i would love to shift the conversation, if i can, just back to one of your core competencies i was in london recently, and i was surprised, even with the strength of the dollar against the pound, my meals in london were cheaper than in new york. what are we seeing with the

willingness of customers to pay what are prices that frankly a few of us couldn't have imagined even a few years ago >> that's a great question we're seeing across the board obviously the only way full-service restaurants can keep up with all of the various costs of doing business is to raise prices none of us likes do it i'm a consumer before a restaurant tour, and i know exactly what you're talking about. the restaurants ironically, and sara and i talked about this a couple weeks ago, they're as busy as i've ever seen private parties, big groups of people, that is the biggest spend you can make, are as busy as i've seen in the entire career this has to stop at some point restaurants don't want to keep charging more than they have to, but when you consider rent, the cost of every good that we sell, when you consider health

insurance, you just have to raise prices there's no way around it, or you can't be in business. >> danny, you've been such a touchstone for us, probably the most difficult period for a restaurant company ever. i wonder if you more classic business cycle? >> you know, i know a lot about wine making as an analogy for your question. wine makers know that, number one, you have to have the best grapes number two, you have to have the best soil. that's the culture of the business but you also have to root for a good vintage, and that's mother nature but we've been going through one of the worst vintages, really, for almost two to three consecutive years right now, and what you see in wine making year after year, even in a bad

vintage, the best wine makers always make the best wine of that vintage it may not have been the best wine they've ever made, but it will be the best wine of that vintage. the lesson we've learned is we've got to go forward with the basics we need restaurants that are happy to see their guests, that are leading with hospitality, where the product is consistent, and whatever price you're charging, you have to understand that your customers in the end are paying for how you make them feel even more than how good the food tastes. >> danny meyer, always good to talk to you, and keep us updated on that deal you're working on >> absolutely. take a look at some of the laggards on the s&p. tons oengy nesf eram on the bottom, halliburton, schlumberger, others not far

behind that. back in a moment

as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. welcome back to "squawk in the street." we're moving to more lows, negative territory for sure.

we're seeing outperformers, and that includes mccormick, lamb weston and clorox. dollar trees scoring high as well in the sector those often seen as demands for necessities stick around for economic uncertainty and possible recession keep an eye on those distant retailers. stay right here. we'll see you more after the break.

the dow still down 69 points or so, but look at the nasdaq. it shows you we are still off for the morning, places like zoom video, docusign, they're all working right now. other teches that are turning around, steve. >> trying to make a comeback here let's check on these mega tech

numbers. first off was apple kind of bouncing around, but still off 20% year to date then we move to alphabet down about 1% looks like it's slightly green at the moment. microsoft also down just shy of 1% meta is also slightly positive today, trying to make a comeback amazon also slightly in the green, but as we were saying earlier this hour, it's been 52 weeks. now, the big headline for big tech today is the eu passing two acts targeting these companies and their market power there is a digital markets act and a digital services act the digital markets act go after apple and google regulating how they do payments, then theirs digital services act for meta and facebook, how they can go after information posted to their platforms and get the right information out there. so, sara, there are two big

teches that they will affect as early as next spring >> thanks. >> it's going to be interesting early in the day we've got that 10-year 2.8 we've got the nasdaq stocks, and yet we still have the markets down almost 2% >> and the dollar really strong to the euro. it shows that some points are being alleviated lower treasury, lower oil prices, and that's certainly helping. "tech check" starts now. >> welcome to techcheck. stocks fall yet again after a performance and another down last week.