tv Tech Check CNBC July 5, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
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teches that they will affect as early as next spring >> thanks. >> it's going to be interesting early in the day we've got that 10-year 2.8 we've got the nasdaq stocks, and yet we still have the markets down almost 2% >> and the dollar really strong to the euro. it shows that some points are being alleviated lower treasury, lower oil prices, and that's certainly helping. "tech check" starts now. >> welcome to techcheck. stocks fall yet again after a performance and another down last week.
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tesla not performing today the company's win streak of record deliveries comes to an end after china lockdowns weighed on numbers in april and may. it is a theme of supply chain slow slowdown, which we'll talk about with apple and amazon today. speaking of amazon, it's hard to believe it's been a year now >> tesla shares lower this morning and ending in a two-year streak of record deliveries. phil lebeau joins us phil, i was a little surprised i was a little focused on that blockbuster june number, stronger than in the company's history. i thought the street might be focused on that also >> i think the street is focused on that, but you also have to think of the totality in terms of -- look, q2, we knew the
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challenges in china, as you take a look at these numbers, keep in mind this is a company twhere most thought it would deliver 256,000 vehicles, delivering just over 244,000 vehicles, but it was the highest production rate ever in june, monthly production rate in june. clearly you see the momentum building as the company is working toward increasing production china was the big drag we knew about that in april and the beginning of may when they had the covid lockdown that clearly interrupted production as well as deliveries there. but as you look at tesla and move forward from here, the big question is do they hit the 1.4 million vehicles delivered this year most analysts are saying, forget q2 as a long-term impact, we still believe it will get to 1.4 million vehicles delivered remember, tesla has never given
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more definitive guidance than what they gave a couple years ago when they said, look, in the future we expect to grow our annual deliveries 50%. give or take, it may be a little below 50% one year, may be a little above 50% one year, and 1.4 million would be above that 50%, roughly speaking. so as you take a look at shares of tesla, bouncing close to that 52-week low, the focus for the analyst is going to be the q2 results on july 20, what happens with margins we know they'll probably face some pressure. we heard the comments from elon musk about how they're burning through cash that we knew was going to impact and put some pressure on margins. to what extent we'll find out in a couple of weeks. >> i think he called them gigantic money furnaces, phil. >> yep >> in everything you just went through, i'm not hearing a ton of reason for that pessimism that they are going to hit that lower target, but also going
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into 2023, phil, they're ramping up giga austin and giga berlin. is there any doubt those ramps will be as strong as we've seen in shanghai? >> it depends on a couple factors. we know germany will add another shift. i think most people are comfortable with germany because the battery cells different than the advanced, longer range cells in austin, and that's a challenge in terms of having enough of the new battery cells in austin to ramp up production as much as expected. i will be curious to see what happens as we get the numbers more definitively from a number of analysts about u.s. sales over the next, you know, couple of days with regard to how much market share they have in the u.s. because i think they are increasing remember, they don't break it down by country. that's going to be the thing that everybody is going to be
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focused on >> phil, appreciate that that's phil lebeau talking from tesla. let's stick to the name and talk about gross stocks more broadly. that part of the market are catching a relative bid, stocks like docusign, zoom. ann berry is with us ann, it's great to have you back on tesla, it sounds like you remain net skeptical give us the idea that others are going to catch up on a relative basis. >> even despite strong june numbers, the problem i have with tesla right now is instead of looking at it in a vacuum and just its own production capabilities, what is the landscape doing? a great report that came out from bank of america talking about the car wars and looking up up ford and general motors
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looking to catch up with tesla in the next five to ten years. i look at them pointing to 3.5 years growth ratio my money goes to ford and it goes to gm >> people like to talk about second mover advantage, and they always invoke apple as an example. how much can we equate gm and ford's prowess with apple's manufacturing process? >> i think one of the things gm and ford has going for it, they already have some balance sheets, they already have cash flow being generated by the legacy business. i think what they started doing slowly but really did much more quickly is re-reporting that advantage, and i think the second advantage piece is hitting on other stocks as well. >> the whole gross stock picture to
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-- growth stock picture looks a little weird to me snowflake is higher than by 14%, doordash better than 5%, there's other things that are done overall to start this week, i'm looking at china lockdowns and consumer spending. some of the areas around shanghai seem to be potentially locking down again, which would be a concern on the supply side, and then all these stories about consumer spending and sort of u.s. consumers spending down the savings that built up during covid makes me wonder what happens in the second half of the year since so much depends on whether consumers continue to spend. are you watching those things as you make your -- position yourself in the second half? >> there's a couple things i'm looking at at the moment one thing i'm looking at is what consumer default rates are on credit cards, what we've seen in the consumer balance sheet inflation has continued to tear
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through consumer savings the second piece is, as i'm sitting in europe at the moment, europe is in likely recession. in china there has been some growth, but the growth has slowed down, and i don't think that's priced in yet, what that means for revenue, not only for the stocks but the broader market for what is generated overseas i have a slower consumer command internationally and the stronger dollar rate which doesn't help the domestic currency revenue generation just for the export market generally. we're looking now to the second half >> what do you make of the tech trades today amazon, docusign, zoom you were looking at the signs they are susceptible to the stronger dollar. do you think this can last >> i'm not optimistic about this lasting. just to hone in specifically on
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zoom and docusign. those two names have a bigger advantage. those were product innovators during the work from home period now remote signing of legal documents now using video conferencing, these are widgets that belong with the microsofts of the world i think businesses like zoom, docusign, single product businesses have a little harder to fall and i don't trust those private names right now. >> ann, it's a little far afield from today's price action per se, but i do wonder, we're going to start talking about politics and the midterms a lot more in the next few months as we work our way through q3 does that change the risk, do you think, for the back half of the year >> where i see the biggest reg risk and what can hinge on the
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presidential election is when it comes to -- let's go back to tesla. anything to do with the private tech continuing to put capital into electronic vehicles, food tech, food supply security, into places like cybersecurity that has been our focused areas for domestic national security policy depending on what happens in the midterms and budget allocations for things like climate policy, alternative energy, i think we need to be watching for those at a macro level, because i think there will be risks depending on how that's doing >> maybe something to talk about next time. great stuff. thank you, ann berry >> thank you now let's take a closer look at the biggest tech name, apple. it arguably faces supply chain headwinds in asia and a downturn in consumer spending
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our next stock is good for this environment. eric woodring is taking over coverage of apple at huberty is it because of apple over time, the innovation, the diversified model or something else why do you think they're well positioned here? >> john, thanks for having me on it's probably all of those that you listed i think customer loyalty at this point is extremely important over 95% of iphone customers typically come back to purchase another iphone you also have to keep in mind that they have installed a base of over a billion users. those are highly engaged users that continue to spend on the platform it's diversification, high customer loyalty, it's great products and innovation. il it's a bit of all of the above on the p&l side, it's also cash and expenses
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>> a lot of cash apple managed to be down 1% over the last 12 months i wonder if they need another narrative shift. for a long time there was a lot of the counting of iphone units and they successfully shifted people to pay more attention to services in this consumer spending environment, do you expect them to shift the narrative again in some way or another, and if they do, what would it be >> no, not necessarily again, this is still about selling products and then monetizing your install base maybe the right way of thinking about this, though, is if we think about today roughly on average, the average consumer for apple spends about a dollar per day on the technology platform that seemingly controls their life what if that consumer was willing to pay more? how much do you spend for coffee per day or travel or lunch there is a narrative to be made here that the consumer is underspending as it relates to
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apple products and sfrservices there is a long runway in front of you >> customers can remain loyal, but they can also push up upgrades in a recession environment, how big of a risk is slowing demands of that core product, the iphone >> key question here we did an analysis that looked at the correlation between iphone, ipad, mac and wearable purchases in the s&p 500, and what we found is the iphone is the most stable of all of apple's products correlation is about .5. that is the least possible correlation among all of apple's products you have to remember the iphone is really the device that controls your life if you're an apple user perhaps there will be some users that push their upgrade, but we do think the iphone is more stablelike and therefore the probability of upgrade in the next 12 months
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>> one thing from katie that we always talked about is her longer view that especially through covid and a reinvention of the enterprise and hybrid work, the corporate demand, enterprise demand for technology would be robust throughout the median term. is that something you are more skeptical about? >> i wouldn't say i'm more skeptical, i just think it's something to watch as we head into a potential downturn. these are all particular purchases that are made, a capex purchase over an op-ed purchase. we just need to be very mind of the data points that come through and be mindful of the fact that one data trend doesn't make a trend i would say cautionary whether that's apple or other stocks in my universe. >> particularly when it comes to apple, what's the biggest downside risk? does it have to do with iphone
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units out the gate does it have to do with demand, supply, what we're heading into that september time period where we expect to see a lot of new product released >> yep so i think it's demand related supply is more of a short-term temporary challenge that could very well come back, but that's hard to discount for our analysts but it is, therefore, demand i would almost caution it being more the discretionary aspect of apple's portfolio. an apple watch is a bit more discretionary, maybe airpods are, maybe services. those are the segments we need to watch but be mindful of the mac and the iphone, products that are primarily computer devices, could be, quote, unquote, weaker in a tough spending environment, but then again hold up better than the discretionary products that apple sells. >> all right eric, thank you. >> thank you for having me
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unique, dee. i've been thirnking a lot about am s amazon, as i ten do.n particulas been strong, and it auturns out amazon is just as good as in the pandemic high. the challenges that amazon faces are significant, but i might argue that they are challenges that the entire market faces unions, apple has union issues, too. overcapacity, sure speaking of overcapacity, last september i talked with andy jassy, his first interview being ceo. >> we think we've probably experienced 18 years of growth
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in 18 months just to give you an idea, john, we spent the first 24 or 25 years of amazon building a very broad fulfillment center network, and over the last 18 months to two years, we've had to double that footprint so it's an unprecedented demand. >> they got their ankles broken on demand, carl, coming out of the pandemic i'm sure the fed can sympathize there. but with their size and with their diversification and business moldel, they might be better positioned than others to figure out what's next >> we're going to find out definitely with some of these inventory levels i don't know if you saw the story in the journal over the weekend, dee, about target and walmart inventories that are bloated and leading to boom times for liquidators. it's interesting to think about
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the things jassy is implementing now, what that says about the year 2025. >> and as we head into the second half of this year, $10 billion in costs because of that capacity labor issues are different now i don't think you can compare amazon unionization efforts and what's going on there to what's going on at apple or even starbuck's it's the second largest employer in the country and they dealt with it in a different way tim cook has gone to seeing union supporters andy jassy has stayed out tof i and the tone they're taking is much harder. >> same tight labor market causing them challenges. we'll see how they solve it. >> joining us on what we can expect from andy jassy is matt
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mcilwain what do you think is the biggest challenge for andy jassy in the second half of the year? >> i think charting some next generation paths there is so much ahead, so much opportunity, whether it's in ads which he built from a 0 to $75 million business in two years, and the core business and market business, and even these merger categories like media and advertising. there's quite a lot to do, quite a lot of complexity, and i think he's driving across those areas. >> matt, we tend to talk a lot about the businesses amazon has been very successful in, which andy jassy pioneered amazon has grown into sort of this behemoth in the space, but one area is grocery. what do you think andy jassy is going to do with grocery as it really kind of struggles to grow market share
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>> i think they've already proven the store's business. that was one of the more interesting moods of its first year by shutting down one of the smaller and clearly not performing to expectations stores business. i think in groceries specifically they're going to stick to it. they have the platform of whole foods. it was the largest acquisition the company made, approximately $15 billion, and that is a platform for mixing the physical world and the digital world, and i think they're really only getting starrted there in terms of experimentation >> matt, i wonder what you think about the executive ranks. when you get a new ceo and you start to get more people promoted, you also have people leaving. in what ways, if you are watching for the types of different personalities and capabilities that andy puts into place, and then how that even carries through how he deals with these labor challenges that amazon is sure to have as they say they want to be the best
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employer in the world. >> john, those are great questions. i do think they're pretty different. the first one, on the executive team, i think you're right when charlie bell did not get picked as the ceo of aws and adam slowicki came back to amazon, charlie went to microsoft. then doug harrington gets promoted and others also move on i think that's a normal type of thing that happens but what andy has done very well there is have folks like adam, folks like doug, jeff blackwell who came back just before andy took the ceo wall, people he knows for a long time and trust and see can work together with the things to look for there is what are the next generation of upcoming folks being ranked in the leader team, et cetera i think it's very notable that one of the very first things
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andy did was create these two leadership principles, earth's best employer being one, and then success in scale, bring more responsibility. so that combination of responsibility and earth's best employer, their track record is complex because of the different types of jobs and labor that they have as an organization, but they do have the $18 wage, minimum wage for them, which is twice the national minimum wage, they have quite strong benefits. i think the hard thing there is they do expect a lot of their employees, so how do you balance the expectation of a lot with strong compensation? >> my other question is on third-party retailers which have been such an important part of amazon's growth, they're also a big part of their exposure to their size and do they have too much influence what do you think the challenge is, the opportunity is for amazon to perhaps grow that
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business, placate the third party user base and maybe protect the flank from this different model that shopify is pushing as they try to build out their logistics capability >> a great question and you're looking for a win-win aggregate extraction let's think about aws. it's ago reg -- aggregation of t of service so people can run their applications then you take the example you're giving which is the third party marketplace, there is an aggregation of financial services capabilities and customers, and that's the other side of the case, do you aggregate a customer so that i, as a small business, can get
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incredible new access to hundreds of millions of customers on the platform. how you do that fairly, how you do that without, you know, kind of catching the eye of regulators, and more importantly, sustaining that group of customers, in this case, the small businesses, is the balancing act, but it comes to this combination of having good aggregation and abstractio that reduces the restrictions, so that whoever it is, aws or the seller's marketplace is going to win for the long term >> the journalists took a crack at the pull forward and demand during covid and how the algorithms didn't have enough to see it and could abruptly end. a lot of that was under bezos' tenure do we think that would have happened also if jassy had been at the helm? >> i think those kinds of long-time lead decisions are
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hard, and i think they've been used to making long-term forward investments, and you've seen these cycles fwhere amazon, you know, has years for their cash flow negative and years for their significant cash flow positive because they're in these investment cycles. i think they bet a little too strongly we can all acknowledge on this particular investment cycle in terms of capacity, i think they would have rather been overcapacitied here than undeunder un undercapacity and falling short of their customers, like enjoying those one or two-day delivery services, and having the center so they could run it under aws. we'll see how they moderate it now with andy and the team going forward. >> matt, when it comes to the labor issues that we were talking a little bit about earlier, is there any
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calculation here could amazon have gone the route and worked productively with them here, or do they fight the union battles? >> i think a lot of those things get adjudicated in the media, and i think the reality may be different. you know, i can speak competently that andy deeply cares about every single person that works for the company, and he has that genuineness that, i think, transcends any given policy or important issue. i do not think it was an accident that he chose to add these two in the leadership principles, earth's best
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employer you look closely at amazon and you think, we have to expect a lot out of our employees and we'll deliver on that, and i think they'll work hard to get through the long term. >> matt mcilwain, thank you. >> thank you very much let's get the update this morning from kristina. hi, kristina >> hello, everyone ur the euro fell to its lowest levels since 2002 and the pandemic they are also being hurt by investment stocks as well. yum brands plan to sell some of its business locations. they sold a pizza location back
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in may biontech shares recover after drop on mrna suit, but pfizer's stock falters. our next guest says things could get even worse keep your eye on crude as we were talking a couple moments ago, dips below $100 a barrel for the first time since may 11 some of the things you could be seeing, a decline in gas prices in theeiboooof nghrhd 35 cents to 50 cents a gallon in the weeks ahead. we'll talk more about that stay with us encourage one another... i can buy gold for this?! you can buy gold for this. and talk about life's wins and misses. responsibly sourced like my gold
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have the nasdaq down 20% over the last three months. just how many negative sentiment has been priced in we have mike santoli mike >> it's actually going on eight months since the nasdaq peaked last year. take a look at valuations within the outside of tech. the nasdaq 100 here in blue. you pretty much retraced all the increase in the forward multiple going back to the pandemic, so we're in this sort of 2018-'19 range of how the nasdaq 100 was valued semis has been the most drastic in orange there. the s&p 500, obviously there's damage all over the place. stocks like intel bringing down the valuation. software was the big outlier,
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and was the focus of the spending microsoft and adobe, salesforce, that's where you're seeing specific readings. >> let's look ahead to tech's second half. our next guest says it could get worse for both private and public companies, especially for those not showing profitability or a clear path to it. we have sanjay punin we were just talking about andy jassy's first year at amazon, so maybe within the context of that to start the biggest risky keep thinking about in the second half is that the consumer runs out of gas, almost literally debt rising, sales dropping, prices stubbornly high when do we see weahether tech is
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getting influenced by that, perhaps even through earnings guidance is there a particular bellwether you would be looking at? >> thanks for having me on yeah, i think the wise approach would be seven years of harvest and then seven years of famine my advice to companies is to plan for things going further south and prepare for the worst. the only thing that's going up right now is inflation and price, everything else going down it's not quite as bad as tw2009 when the s&p 500 went down 20%, the same in 2002 i think if you're a private company or public company, those glory days without a pot to cash flow positive is over. you're looking for skyrocket valuations in your middle to late stage funding rounds, you'll get a rude awakening when
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you either go public or go for the next round everyone has to get the memo, and it's not all doom and gloom. i think if we look at 2000-2002, companies like airbnb. i'll be watching the next few weeks for how the earnings of the cloud companies, security companies shape up in july and august >> it looks to me like a lot of e-commerce names have suffered in this market slowdown a lot more than the big enterprise software names have. so i sort of wonder, and of course amazon has got both, so maybe you can address that within the context of amazon how likely is it that we start to see some of the follow-through effects of a slowdown coming to the energized software players >> i put out a tweet a little later today about the s&p 500,
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the nasdaq and the top 200 names in the tech space, how they've done companies like service now, a few security players have done recently well. but if you look at the high flyers that were valued probably a little bit irrationally, snowflake, they've come down quite a bit. they have long-term potential, don't get me wrong, these are incredible companies, but their valuations will skyrocket. if you look at the dot-coms, a lot of these beat-up marketplaces and the dot-coms collapsed. they had an incredible pandemic surge that's not sustainable, but i'm still very positive about andy jassy's future. if you read his shareholder letter, it's an absolute classic just like all of jeff bezos' letters. he talked about innovation and
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refocusing the employees i'm confident of their future in the long run >> sanjay, when you look at some of those high flyers, as you called them, the pandemic d darlings like zoom, docusign, they weren't really able to expand their platforms during the pandemic, what do they do now? do they look to pick up a company at these valuations if they have the cash to do so, or do they look for a sale for themselves, perhaps? >> zoom tried to with 5-9. i think zoom has a chance whether it's with 5-9 or others to broaden the platform. i'm involved with a consumer adviser that does lifestyle managing they do very well. i think as the management teams, you have to ask yourself, as ceo and leader, if you have tapped
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your act 1, what's your act 2? how do you build a platform and go back to those customers that are loyal and continue to build that platform? when you move from a single platform, there is a lot of growth there >> keep your eye on hp today e evercore takes hpq to neutral. no drama downgrade "tech" is back in two minutes.
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micron shares picking up this morning, but ceo sanjay mehrotra is bullish, saying he expects a pickup >> micron is taking concrete actions in terms of limiting our supply and bringing the return to the demand and supply environment sometime in fiscal year '23 the long-term demand trends are holding. we just delivered a record quarter and we are on our way to deliver a record fiscal year >> it's been a rough first half for chip stocks and supply chain
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issues have weighed on the sector the smh now 40% off the highs of the years, headed a bit lower today as nvidia, devices amd, a lot of other names hit 52-week lows, carl all kind of relative, though, right, because they have been soaring so high in the past. and a lot of this is out of sync with the commentary that we've heard from marvell, from qualcomm, sharing in the cloud >> as john says, the broadbased weakness in semis, but the researches in the amax >> they are looking for the long term and switched to what he
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called high value solutions, some of those sectors that will see growth in the years ahead. also focusing on how quickly they can pivot he said he's never seen the supply and demand picture turn so quickly in thinste dury will netflix demands go up piper seems to think so. those shares are up marginally stay with us
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let's get a gut check on netflix. reiterating neutral on the streaming giant calling it a business it they call it the season's debut short-term relief. but a subscriber growth slows in a crowded streaming market sandler says their ad-supported platform looks promising but shares started lower but are up one-third of a percent down 70% year to date which puts it in perspective. we'll be right back. (heartbeats) introducing icy hot pro. ice works fast... to freeze your pain and your doubt. heat makes it last. so you'll never sit this one out. new icy hot pro with 2 max-strength pain relievers.
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whether your small business is starting or growing, you need comcast business. technology solutions that put you ahead. get a great offer on internet and security, now with more speed and more bandwidth. plus find out how to get up to a $650 prepaid card with a qualifying bundle. venture capital names are moving beyond their wheelhouse bessemer is the latest vc to apply for status with the s.e.c. this allows the firm to diversify its portfolio from direct stakes in private companies to secondary shares as well as other investments like public equities and crypto bessemer is not the first to change their status. sequoia and greycroft made the change in january and andreessen made the shift in 2019 bit of a shift, dee.
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>> it's interesting because they're very different sets of skills they have had a lot of success picking early stage companies, jon. can they apply that to the public markets in the case of sequoia, it's been a tough start think if they had cashed out in doordash a year after they went public, they would look better but a way to get fees perhaps. >> i think we risk overcomplicating it. these are investors who thrive on giant returns, and they want to hold more public companies at a time when the mainstream thinks, oh, boy, these software companies, high growth, they have plummeted, they're trash, leave them alone these investors want to pick up probably more of those investors who still got some cash on the sidelines. watch, think about that. to me it's similar to watching insider buying you can probably get something from that. >> and they do have a lot of cash.
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>> yeah. they're rich they're super rich people. they have always got a lot of cash indeed, as you mentioned, dee. meanwhile, are you looking for a good summer podcast, something for the beach? subscribe to tech check. listen any time anywhere, wherever you download podcasts we're back in just a moment.
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once again, europe closes and we take a tiny leg higher here in the states we're back to 3767, jon. can it be that simple? difficult to tell. but one thing is for sure, there has been some relief in yields with oil back to 99, some relief in energy too. >> is this allowed the dow is down 1.8% and the nasdaq only off 0.3? isn't it supposed to -- right? isn't the nasdaq supposed to have the worst session speaking of narrative violations, we talked about amazon ceo andy jassey today so what's jeff bezos up to? he is calling out president biden for requesting gas stations to bring down prices at
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the pump tweeting ouch, inflation is far too important a problem for the white house to keep making statements like this it's either straight ahead misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics dee, interesting choice to take the white house on, on this topic. the white house certainly hasn't been shy lately about throwing a few blows amazon's way. >> yeah. so he's pushing back i was checking out andy jassey's twitter. it is decide ely less interesting. no responding. he did tweet about prime day, which is coming up speaking of risk asset and the nasdaq outperforming the other indices, take a look at bitcoin. it's still below 20,000. so even though it's been acting like a risk asset, not really at the moment it's still below that important milestone. carl >> yeah, recovering 20k according to some chartists is pretty important by the way, tomorrow is already
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wednesday since we're in a holiday shortened week we'll get the fed minutes tomorrow we'll keep an eye out for any preannouncements no adp tomorrow because they're taking the month off to revise their methodology but we'll have to go with the estimates on what jobs friday may bring. the dow down 590 let's get to frank holland and "the half. >> thanks a lot, carl. welcome to "the halftime report." i am frank holland in for scott wapner the debate about a recession heats up this week the big question, what is priced into this market and how do you protect your portfolio in the second half? we will debate that and much, much more with our investment committee. bryn talkington, joe nterranova. the dow is down almost 2%, the s&p down a percent and a
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