>> carnival cruise lines and norwegian cruise lines i bought both. >> josh. >> these are dividend aristocrats. they own an index and basically they've been raising the dividends every year for 25 years. there aren't a lot of companies that make the list but these are tip the tapes of stooks i think you can get through and befine >> the exchange with kelly evans begins right now >> welcome to it "the exchange". i'm kelly evans. another week and same old story. concerns growing over a possible recession and europe in particular we'll hear from someone who say the biggest risk is -- and saying the fed needs to kill off inflation to save the economy.

and he's buying certain stocks who is right we'll ask david, who's also feeling a little more bullish these days and the u.s. dollar hitting a 20-year high against the euro. what does it mean? who benefits and let's begin with dom chu >> it's are red but one part of the market had turned green. it is the technology component side of things so, with let's take you through the market narrative it's down about 600 points 577 right onow woevl been hovering around this decline level for most of the morning. $35.68 is the trade. 1.5% declined. but the nasdaq trade is not necessarily that you want to accentuate the positive. it's more whether they're flying more towards boiing tips, whether it's to cover short bets

or take long value positions we were positive up about 25 points in the nasdaq trade. we were down 16 points and verses the s&p and dow droels where energy has a bigger part of the discussion why is it comes more to the forefront today? because the difference in rate between long-term treasury notes and short-term notes and bills has inverted the two-year verses 10-year spread about 100th of a percent to the down side the last time we saw that negative level, you have to go back the beginning of april. they like to say when they do go negative, it might foretell a recession.

and because of that increased chatter about recessions happening, many of inout performing stocks are focussed more on the value side and the biing spectrum two of the more discount retailers out there. in the green by twol and a quarter percent. and walmart shares up about three quarters of 1% it's the antirecessionary play playing out pretty well for the discounters. >> the three-year 10-year is almost below one point now >> you and i can have a discussion until the cows come home >> they are both moving lower for sure speaking of moving lower, take a a look that stunning moves in energy to the down side.

crude oil plunging 8%. wti crude is below $98 a barrel. it fell for the first time since late may. for it's on pace for the worst day since march. let's welcome in managing director at clear view energy partners astonishing, dramat -- what is it telling you >> this is a world where you're saying it's 98 and low woe finished last year at an average of 70 or 71. we have to ask what is normal and what is really going on? and yes, on store shelves and everywhere else. and now all this talk of recession. a correlation.

and not hard to figure out what the market is think. >> it has to be a gdp story. this is demoralized the one part of the market that was working all year okay, with fine, energy is resetting but everything else is benefitting. mg is working except certain pockets dom mentioned today. >> if we're looking at the oil and gas story, you're right. we're already 2 or 300 million barrels below the five-year average. and now wore talking about crowding out 5% of the energy of the world consums. they don't all hit the barrel,

right? tightness is going to come home to roost the question is did it disappoint to the down side? if so, we might see more in crude prices >> yes, the president has a saudi meeting next week. could that be partly what's behind the price declines here this an tiszpation more crude is coming on to global market >> it's a question how it will play out in opec plus. i think right now with the president saying he's not going to ask directly. and with the crown prince probably looking for a sign of enduring, long-term comradeship, if not out-right friendship, it may be too soon to think we're getting that surplus

the question is where the shortages come up. these are hundreds of thousands of barrels per day but they're not nothing. >> i'm wondering if energy is going to be a self-correcting mechanism. our buddy is tweeting with oil below $100, gasoline prices could fault 50 cents a gallon in the next couple of weeks that would be a big boom for the consumer at exactly the point they need it could it change the trajectory of the recession so many are worried about and help avoid that outcome >> it would be a big thing for it to do that. we're usually in the 4 to 6% range. and right now we're looking at impasse lean as disposable income we're talking 3.3% trajectory. these numbers may not seem very high but they're very high

relative to where things were a year ago, a jeer a half ago. and disposable income itself falling because of inflation i'm not sure how much relief we're going to see at the pump given the broader picture of the consumer not to be a pesmist. >> fine. have it that way we'll check back in soon with clear view energy partners. stocks are recouping some of the losses with the nasdaq briefly managing to go positive. my next guest says the plarjer largest market risk is the fed raising rates too fast she's warning investors to stay away from creatures developed like crypto currencies, s sprks acs and growth stocks, even though some are out performing today. good to have you back. do you want to pick up the thread where we left off

what do you think is happening with the macro back drop >> the fed is talking very aggressively we're seeing economic growth here so, that isn't the back drop to see is sturbernly high inflation continue they do what they do before. which is slam on the brakes and really hurt the econteam bring down inflation so, the market is in it cline over concerns of recession the biggest risk is the fed not looking at the real world, trying to stamp out inflation and really hurting the economy, causing the recession.

>> i understand that point of view, even though the persistent inflation view doesn't look a lot better we don't want a situation where you repeat the mistakes of the 60s and 70s and almost the 80s where it felt like the macro's more important and you have 15 years of high inflation that takes a real tightening to stop. >> that's right. but this is different. and a lot of what caused the inflation were the huge deficits one brought on to soften the impact of covid. and secondly to stimulate the economy. so, all together, several trillion dollars pumped into the economy in short order not surprise we had a huge jump in economic growth and we're seeing those all over. this would be the wrong time for the fed to look in the rearview mirror, react and aggressively look to raise rates.

>> let's move on to what parts of the market you like do you think this is a good time over flaul investors to jump into an s&p 500 if they have been nervous about stlg cash on the side what stock in particular do you like >> at a macro level. although it's likely we'll see the economy slow down. looking for earnings to taper lower. i would say we're going to have positive economic growth and particularly the sectors that have secular quality. i think look afractive youvlg had price earnings ratios come down to maybe 16/15 times earnings that cushions a lot of disappointments. we continue to like the sectors we think will have long-term growth we like the industrial sector. we like the defense sector we have for a long time. we think parts of technology

will continue to do well because it's still a sector that gres above the market >> thanks again for your time and thoughts we appreciate it still ahead, my next guest says what the fed is doing is working. but could any of the reports we get this week derail that sentiment? plus the dollar up double digits the euro trading at 20-year low. we'll look at the sectors most heavily exposed and how to trade them let's look at markets one more time fighting inat the green by just a couple of points the s&p down 50. the dow down 1.7% and the 10-year yield below 280. we're back after this.

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reports on the road ahead. it ends with the friday big jobs report we have ism services we get that switchover and being strengthened in services and jolts, fed market and the jobs report friday where the dow jones survey of economists looks for a fairly steep downward step with a consensus for 250,000 for june. for that's thankful average but the number would still be strong for normal time os pricing has come down dramatically market was looking for a peek fed rate of 408 in july 2023 today it's priced at 327 for february almost 80 basis points less tightening build into the market and the fed is seen kw quickly retreating

that's the december 2023 number. that could be a sign the market is pricing in the sector but if they're strong this week, you may have to rethink the recession call immediate hey maybe further down the road. >> especially because the most important thing, these inflation expectations on the market side are breaking and on the consumer side with gasoline, might beabout to be broken >> if that happens, that could be a game changer and maybe the market has this right and instead of the 70 basis points back up, maybe we don't get it the end of this year the fed has 2.5 to 3%. what happens after that is entirely contingent on the economy. >> our last guest argued they might tighten to it much into a slowing economy. in a series of tweets, the hedge fund manager it's fundamentally

strong and says the current volatility is due to leverage fixed income trades and the lack of understanding of what a recession is and it's long high-quality growth businesses with pricing power. he is the chief market strategist are you feeling a little more optimistic on the market s >> i am, kelly i came on -- i looked back and was right on fed day midjuly and the market is around here. and asking me about my feeling i surprised her by saying i'm turning more positive or less negative we started very cautiouses tried to advise our clients to obe cautious folks who have at least covered a little bit of this and not been completely -- completely

wiped out by the 30% of the nasdaq they have a reezenason to say ts is a lot but it's getting close to enough especially if the fed gets the 2.5. and next year we rely more on qt and the power of qt and that may abe more than enough to get the inflation expectations much lower. >> and on the fact that everyone else seems to think slowing economy is going to send us right into recession and the two of you and others like michael have said perhaps this is a constructive moment for risk how are we going to know ewhether to obe long risk or whether that next leg lower is can coming >> he was singing from the same

book i've been singing which is nominal growth is likely to stay strong for a while. it represents expenditures so, when you have 12% nominal growth and we're setting up for reezably high nominal gdp growth and not a lot being real, it's a lot of fire under the economy's belt to drive nominal prices >> i think it depends how you came into the year if you came in cautious. if you came in ntdweight i think now is the time you say okay i have an opportunity and i can get involved a little bit more

i think if you came in overweight, you have a problem and hope you don't get redeem sthd reality of it the most important thing is if you have the fire power, it's not an unreasonable time get involved and that's coming from a guy handing out broken-hearted quantitative hats, which i think i wore once on your show might have already breken enough parts and we may get to the point where you have some >> the positivity is quite revealing. youvlg been saying there's no good places for risk until, arizona i've hearing the last couple of kweeks. and what about fixed income? what would you do with bonds

>> i think it's inverted >> their kredability is more than in tact which is more than the last fed meeting. so, i think the yield curve, to me, is saying something pretty profound, which is maybe, as we go to the balance sheet run off and we see 95 billion a month, that tightening can be powerful. and that is somewhat positive for the equity markets for the fixed income markets, it pins down the long end better and i think we may see that start to come into the factoring of where long-end yields are

not to the mention expectations are coming down. i'm not jumping on to the -- i know a bunch of fixed income guys jeff and a few others have been excited about bonds and have had a great call in the last few weeks or months or so. but i'm not so excited about the bond market. it's okay. but i'm leaving my old blues fromthal sues and blues world aside. i'm thinking it's time to think more about how beaten up risk has been and take a little bit more cleanly on hath and i'm not over excited about it the more we go on, the nor fed will use it as an opportunity to get ahead of amflation so, i don't think the big down side trade unless he loses the anchor in long-term inflation. oil has to be tell itting you a

different story. >> david, thanks for your time today. we appreciate it is coming up, with it's been a rough year for the restaurant industry starbucks and dominos down and wing stop down 52 ber. inflation one of the big head winds. we'll tell you which one and what's ahead for the it group. let's check back on the markets. only five dow stocks are in the greeng you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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welcome back to "the exchange". the nasdaq is positive by half a percent. we're 3 o00 points off the lows. energy is still getting crushed though oil is trading down almost 10% it was not only below $100 a barrel a moment ago, below 98 this is some of the worst interday drops we've seen since march. for now, hugging the $101 a barrel mark. exxon and chevron are down and they're the best performers in the energy kbrup group this is not just an oil story. stocks are economically sensitive. more of a copper play. down 7.5%. as copper itself is falling to its lowest level in about a year and a half a bright spot are the travel stocks travel and cruise lines are

helping the consumer discretionary sector turn higher we have norwegian and carnival up 8%. and we'll have more on this in just a moment. some of the ecommerce names doing well roblox is up 13% today etsy, bumble and chewy posting nice gains as well >> thank you, kelly. police in highland park, illinois, say they may be ready to file charges today against the 21-year-old man in custody in connection with the july fourgtd parade shooting that killed people. they used a rifle similar to an ar-15 to shoot rounds from the roof of a commercial building and he was dressed in women's clothing >> investigators do believe he did this to conseal his facial

tattoos and identities and help them with the other people fleeing the chaos. as he was leaving a white house ceremony, president biden was asked if he plans to go to highland park. his response, i'm not sure he's ordered flags be flown at half staff and, key key members of the boris johnson's ministry have resigned not happy how he handled sexual misconduct complaints who johnson later appointed to his post and had to resign for being in intoxicated in public. boris johnson has apologized for the appointment. and we look at the biggest biggest porendowo adthem next e a life insurance

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welcome back, everybody.

the dollar is nearing parity we're looking at selctors that are most exposed and how to trade them all those tourism dollars spreading a lot further. here's the story on the standout and courtney garcia joins us with her picks let's start with travel. what can you tell us >> the weaker euro is widely seen as a net positive for travel it gives americans purchasing power. incentivize them to take tours overseas in term its off beneficiaries, analyst schultz, has marriott high on the list with 50% of earnings generated and the priceline brand, which is heavily kbgeared to the

european audience. the challenge is the bruoader effect of the ukraine war on europe and that's bunsing today and morgan stanley came out with-note. >> so, those are some of the biggest beneficiaries potentially. we're seeing positive trades where would you guide investors in the space >> i think bocking could be administeresting here. travel in general, i think we're se seeing demand is not slowing down what i really like about booking is they get a lot of their revenue from europe or they have a good stake in that market. also get more into the chinese market, which is long term is a great beneficiary. short term, they're sarting to

open up, that increased demand only stands to have what happened in the u.s. and booking will be a great beneficiary. >> let's move to some of the names that could take a hit, like the multinational consumer staples plays. who is most exposed here >> hats it exactly right the global consumer brands that had diverse pied their footprint. names like philip morris, with a significant exposure in europe both these names could potentially get hit by a weaker euro and another name that came up was e bay with 30% of sales accounted for in europe, that's according to it goldman sachs. which put together a great analysis of the revenue breakdown. with 30% of sales in europe.

>> that's higher than i would have expected. where would you have people stay away from or are there ways to invest on the long side? inflation kicking in spending their shifts from goods to services. ebay is really in that space where you have collectibles and unique items and that's the first place people are not spending from as we have inflation and slowing down economy. >> more of a stay away play. let's wrap it up with the tech sector where we have surprisingly high exposure for a lot of big cap tech. >> that's right. technology is the most vulnerable sector and any sector it has the highest share of revenue at 59% the question is where exactly?

which sectors are most vulnerable the semiconductor names. and then again, other technology companies with the global footprint and considerable exposure to europe it bets is expected. >> 33% exposure. obviously, we have the semipsychotool worry about inflation and the expense story. what are your thoughts >> i think with tech, you mentioned that's one of your most susceptible you need to make sure you're looking at companies with a strong balance sheet they have a really good free cash flow. they have a customer base that is pretty sticky you're not going to get people whose business is as fasts a their competitors.

>> and to broaden this out, what if the dollar doesn't keep rallying i say that knowing our friend thinks this strong dollar trend will persist if he's long, i take notice. are investors putting too many eggs in one basket if they make a trade about currency, which is notoriously difficult to predict? we're seeing this year so many head winds the war in ukraine supply chain issues. any one of these things can persist. don't plut your money in tech. you need to make sure you're sticking with your plan here >> we're seeing the reversal of so many amflation trades and strong dollar was, maybe still

is one of them >> thislocation we're seeing the currency market and seeing whautit means for european company. does it make them more competitive. we have seen a correlation of a weaker euro being good that export overseas we'll have to see if the trend plays to market here >> that's true you can hop over seas to take advantage. but it gets complicated fast we'll leave it there thank you very much. coming up, more than right more than 8 million people, she said, pass through tsa check points and with airlines facing serious staffing isssbue thousands of flights cancelled or delayed fwlr with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts

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the airlines perking up a bit as the jet fuel prices collapse they're not as strong as the rest of the travel space on the heels of a rough holiday weekend. phil was out of hair's airport with the latest on this story. phil >> kelly, it was a ruffle weekend, especially if you were traveling friday or saturday they did better on sunday and yesterday. here are the numbers according to flight aware. 1810 flights were cancelled over the 10-day weekend the delays topping 21,000. basically one out of every five flights was delayed 15 minutes according to flight aware. memorial day, 2.8% of the flights were cancelled

june 10th, 3.fi5% first of all, american airlines. this got a lot of attention on friday and saturday after the pilot's union said look, 12,000 of the flights disappeared from the internal schedule. didn't have a captain or first officer. that was strictly for the internal pilot scheduling. that kid not affect operations the airlines says everything has been fixed as far as the software fwlich. and talking about delta, southwest and united they have all trimmed their schedule this summer because of that, and a lot of the schedule reductions kicked in that adds more slack to the system finally, don't forget about spirit this continues you have the new vote for shareholders coming on friday. that will be whether or not to go forward or reject the proposed merger.

and jet blue says it's still a player in the possible chance to merge with spirt airlines. >> how much of a break with lower jet fuel prices be for them it seems like if that were the only issue, that's a simple story. feels like much more chronic problems >> jet fuel would help the second biggest expense after labor. and you're seeing it at unprecedented levels are they able to offset that with higher ticket prices? yes. it's certainly going to weigh on their results when we hear the qt numbers in the next couple of weeks. >> we'll have much more on the airlines and power lunch with transportation secretary pete buttigieg joins us next hour still ahead, the ibb slightly higher but down more than 20% since january.

we'll get a stealth midcap play that could be an out performer

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the it health care etf down own wlae 11% different story for bio tech, which plunged more than 20 years to date. and although he does see a few opportunities already cropping up joining us is health care portfolio manager. let's just set the scene how hated is bio tech right now? >> i would say really hated, actually it's down a lot. it's been and not like a lot of other risk assets. and probably, in our view, going to stay that way for a while >> i don't know. the way the market is trading, it seems to think a fed pivot is at hand. >> i wouldn't rule out a rally because they often happen and the market, at least small cap bio tech, is very bearish. you could get funds put off side our baseline assumption is

probably some time may of 2023, the fed stops. who knows. maybe they'll stop tomorrow and that would be great. >> is this just a tough trade? >> it's a tough trade because their main request for bio tech is capital and once it goes out, and more or less mad we've seen the cycle before. we'll hang in there and wait >> i remember the glory days the mid to late teens when you had names like vertech and different things like the best nasdaq stocks of the year and the mutual funds were returning. and what does it take to get back to othose days? >> another bubble. or 0% interest rates i would say we're going to hit a steady state which is why we're sniffing

around the midcaps as opposed to growthy, high data bio tech. >> all that said, where would you look and direct investor's attention if you want to direct them to promising plays? >> health equity we own. doing . real estate is a real estate play in biotech, they underlie a lot of the biotech labs and companies, so that's a good one. cytek bioscience they have the latest and greatest in flow, it's very cool a company called signify which is in the small cap growth name, small cap, mid cap name, but it's another -- it's a play on the service sector, and of course our stalwarts are always j&j and united health and boston scientific, which do well come higher, you know, or high water. >> yeah, hell or high water. >> i'm not sure if i was allowed to say that.

>> i'll take the fall for you. how is that? >> thank you. >> what do you make of larger cap, more traditional health care space and can you explain how covid is still affecting the trading dynamics there, if it is >> sure. well, it's less covid and more interest rate. so big pharma. we own a bunch of those too, are going to do well because of the dividends and stability in earnings they could be heard if we have a very radical drug pricing, you know, bill passed, but that doesn't seem like it's on the horizon. so with those it's sort of steady as you go you'll see investors gravitate towards them as a place to hide out until things get a little bit better that's our view. like i said, we all, you know, think -- of major pharma. >> i'm getting asked more about monkeypox and any health care players that might be working on some kind of treatment or could benefit from it. i don't know if you've done -- if there's any digging to be done there yet >> they're around.

you know, monkeypox is the latest thing to scare us i would mention that i've been writing about this for well over a decade monkeypox -- we have, but if there's any upside to covid is that we've sort of done a lot of work in the antiviral space so we're a lot smarter. i'm not nearly as worried about monkeypox as i was about covid i hope i'm right, you know, that it will sort of burn itself out, but, you know, if the next time i'm on i'm wearing a hazmat suit, we'll know i was wrong. >> unfortunately so no place there maybe to mention. let me ask you about one thing closer to home, which i have heard occasionally talk about dw development of an rsv vaccine or something that could be combined with a flu or covid, maybe a moderna thing approach or something like that. i don't know if there's anything more you could tell us about that. >> yeah, we are seeing that and we're also seeing it on a diagnostic side too. there's a private company

working on a combination test flu, vaccine, rsv so i'm pretty confident we will see a combination vaccine. it will just make life easier for everybody, and i'm not sure if it will be in time for this flu season it will definitely be in time for, you know, 2024. >> let me ask you -- put your doctor hat on. what is rsv, and where did it come from? this wasn't a thing when i was younger. the last couple of weeks and months, i could tell you everyone in my neighborhood and town at work, their kids are all -- they're in and out of the hospital with this thing >> well, to be fair, i'm not a doctor, and nor should you take any medical advice from me rsv has been around for ages i think we're just more aware of it now i mean, rsv has been an issue forever. again, i think it's just an awareness. we are more aware of vaccines and viruses and all kinds of things that go bump in the night, and so -- and it's a good thing that we're aware of it and we treat it. and rsv in general it seems

fairly treatable if you catch it. >> right, absolutely thanks for your time today good to see you. you can be the -- you know, the portfolio doctor anyway. with his plays on health care and biotech. coming up, it's been a rough year for restaurants as costs climb and consumers scale back spending, but this name could be better positioned than its peers to deal with the fallout from inflation. we'll tell you the name and why next new gold bond pure moisture lotion. 24-hour hydration. no parabens, dyes, or fragrances. gold bond. champion your skin. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find

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welcome book, everybody. before we go, one more thing over the past three months, wing stop, domino's and starbucks have all had new ceos take over, and while all three execs are facing labor shortages and rising costs, only one is showing signs of being able to fight inflation. kate rogers is here now with that story >> hey, kelly, all three of these leaders taking over during another shift in the industry,

still working through the pandemic but now also staring down inflation and a recession here at starbucks, howard shulsz returned to a different company. the two challenges are a potential consumer pullback. it's one that schultz warned about. and the ongoing union fight it staers down, more than 180 stores have voted yes on organizing across the country. last quarter u.s. demand did help to offset a pullback the company saw in china, which is also an ongoing concern. at domino's there's strong demand in the u.s., but russell weiner is taking over for rich alison who's noelted that a driver shortage was limiting the company's ability to meet some demand domino's is leaning into carryout in the meantime on the inflation front t has implemented modest price hikes but so far wing stop seems to be the only company we've heard from talking about meaningful deflation in wing prices he told cnbc the company hasn't begun discounting yet, but it does have some leverage to pull with pricing and can offer value bundles at a really key time for

customers. if you take a look at all three stocks telling a different story, wing stop down over 25% >> domino's especially and speaking of, i guess, pizza chains, we just got some news out of russia, right >> yeah, that's right. this is with regard to yum brands it's kind of continuing to move out of the russian market. it says it's completed its pizza hut transfer to a local operator there, and it's going to be rebranding to a non-yum concept. it's also doing the same with its kfc restaurants, transferring them to a local operator yum had suspended all of its company owned restaurants and halted all investments and restaurant development efforts and kind of redirected those profits from russia operations to humanitarian efforts. once all of this is done, yum brands says it intends to fully exit russia. another major company following in the steps of mcdonald's and starbucks. >> you wonder who's left at this point? >> those were really the big three that were there. mcdonald's was the one that

faces the most pressure, so many of those were company operated, not franchise. >> kate rogers with all the latest news. and we will be sticking with other names that have had a rough year next hour the trade in cars, chips and copper coming up on "power lunch," which begins right now >> all right, thanks very much, kelly. we'll see you in a couple of seconds here welcome to "power lunch," i'm dominic chu in for tyler m mathisen this afternoon. investors gripped by recession fears at this hour, so how to invest as growth slows possibly and uncertainty ramps up a look at what's next for two battleground stops we're talking tesla and amazon and transportation secretary pete buttigieg is here to discuss fixes for the overall airline industry following a holiday weekend that saw thousands of delays and cancellations. but first a check on the markets, kelly, which ar