voyager digital collapsing it's july 6, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc at times square let's take a look at equity futures. it was quite a turnaround yesterday compared to what we were talking about early in the morning. right now we're looking at futures pulling back ever so slightly s&p looking to lose just about two points at the open dow will be down about 12. nasdaq by about 3. as we mentioned the volatile session yesterday. s&p 500 rallying back in the final hour of trading to finish the session up 0.2%

tesla the big winner yesterday industrials showed strength. pandemic darling stongs like zoom and dock you sign treasury yields, of course, that helped these growth stocks pull back the ten-year yield, 2811, but the real focus is something we highlighted yesterday with the yield curve invufrmgts we were on the precipice of that inversion. we're fulling into that inversion at 2.838%. so flashing that dreaded warning sign, joe. >> and as people that work together, do we -- you know, we are together before the show, you know people getting makeup. it's early, but we do talk and we talk about a lot. i mentioned that yesterday -- i mean it got a little hairy at one point. it was like, here we are

here we are again after a terrible first half of the year. said,wow let's check the vix out. if you want 40, it's not happening. >> a capitulation. the vix hasn't spiked. all those sort of kacapitulatory signs, they haven't played out. >> wti was down below 100. for the first time since may 11, it dropped there are supply concerns even as worries about a global recession linger and natural gas prices in europe are pulling back after spiking yesterday norway's government is intervening to end a strike that cut oil and gas output that could have worsened the energy crunch on the continent.

euro is looking good in terms of when it used to be 125, 130. my point also we already talked about, we asked analysts why is oil below 100, why are yields falling. it's like isn't that good? it depends on why they're falling. it depends on -- i understand if it's a slowdown or recession that's causing it. that's not the optimal way to get lower prices and lower interest rates, but the effect is the same. borrowing costs are not what they thought they were going to be maybe gas prices do come down and maybe there is some relief at the pump. so those things as they filter through, they end up being there if not for a good reason i'm half full today and not half empty. >> it also gives in a sense some leeway to pause or maybe pair

back on their hiking plans after the july meeting it seems like july is hiking maybe after that we'll see how it all plays out the stronger dollar helps out in terms of the fed price stability. it gives another reason to step back. >> it hurts earnings we could say, it's currency. >> the thing about microsoft, they came out with an impact for guidance but that was percentage points ago in terms of the u.s. dollar strength. >> it's almost like a special item if you factor that out, it grew, blah, blah, blah. >> it's another thing though that's clouding the picture. >> we can discount it and say, yeah, they made less money, but it doesn't really matter because there was the ongoing business isn't why they made less money i was going to talk about something else, too, but i forgot oh, coming up, one of our first

fe guests is going to talk about previous cycles and where the fed has ended. we always at the beginning of the tightening cycle overstate what it's going to take and the market itself, since it's so smart, does a lot of the work for the fed. and we barely reach the points that we think at the beginning of a tightening cycle. i should probably wait for him to say all these things. >> it might be more convincing. >> i don't think so. >> you were just saying you're full of you know what. >> no. i said i think you're saying i'm full of -- in the opec industry, mohammad barkindo has died he was only 63 he was days away from finishing his opec term.

he began serving in 2016. voyager digital files for bankruptcy it was ordered to liquidate. let's take a check on crypto price this morning bitcoin pulling back by a percentage point ether and solana up. >> walmart will reportedly charge some suppliers new fees this is to transport goods to its warehouses and stores. the reason, a surcharge, a rise in fuel and shipping charges they'll charge a collect pickup charge based on a percentage of the goods being received and a fuel chancht last month they cut their profit forecast for the year blaming a rise in shipping and fuel costs. amazon moving into the restaurant delivery business it's buying a small stake in

grubhub and will offer free access for prime members they'll get free deliveries up to $12 for the year in most cities amazon shares as you can see this year like so many tech stocks, rough go. >> yeah. two top members of the senate intelligence committee are urging investigators to investigate tiktok senators mark warner and marco rubio claims they've been accessing data oven users. they could be getting sensitive data using backdoor methods. >> the people that watch tiktok all day long, what's china going to find out about these kids oh, my god

they may say, we don't have to do anything, that country is screwed, it's declined they may want to watch it in slow motion and enjoy it what are they going to find out? what are they going to find out? >> i don't know. location >> i'm more worried about the 300 acres right next to our air force base where all of our stealth stuff is we want those 300 acres. we can't find any other -- those are the most attractive 300 acres bill gates hasn't bought but the most attractive ones around we happen to like it next to the air force base. the dollar moving up we're going to talk about what the means for the broader markets with peter

first as we head to break, c k out this morning's biggest acp winners and losers stay tuned >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities experience, expertise, execution.

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welcome back to "squawk box. u.s. futures looking steady and slightly in the red, this after that massive turnaround we saw in the final hour of trading as much as 2% the dow down more than 2%. we have that turnaround to end the day mixed. here we are, s&p looking to lose 2 at the open, nasdaq, down 9 at the open taking a look at the european stoxx we're seeing what we saw basically yesterday. the dax is up 1.4%, the cac up 1.6%. joining us now the aforementioned peter boockvar, cnbc contributor whether your ears were burning -- we don't need to have you on, peter. you need to expound upon these interesting points you're

making, and that is a recession you're actually hearing people say these things. "the wall street journal" says it really doesn't count anymore. these metrics, they're so outdated that in a post-pandemic economy, we need a new toolbox to measure recessions. what do you mean it's a semantics issue and it's not the same, this recession, if we head into one or are already in one >> they said it's more a broad connection of connectivity rather than two negative quarters in a row. whether we define it as a recession or not, revenue growth is going to slow and we're going to hear a lot about it with

earnings not just from a topline perspective but profit margin perspective and what that translates into as far as e earners. >> the thing i was referencing, and we said that yesterday, a lot of the fed's work -- we're talking about the u.s. item now. that's no what we're talking about right now. i was going to message and say you don't need the euro up we'll talk about it in and sko, peter. if you're listening, when the fed at the beginning of a tightening cycle says the terminal point might be x, you make the point in the past we usually don't get there and excessive tightenings don't get to the previous peak in previous tightenings. get to the numbers and where we're headed because liesman mentioned yesterday it's dropped

about 75 basis points, the eventual funds rate. the market's already doing the work for the fed, is it not? >> it is so to your point, when the fed is in an easing cycle, it's encouraging companies and households to take on debt, buy cars, buy homes, expand their business, and that debt remains. the longer the rates stay low, the more dependent we are operates so when it comes time for the rate hiking cycle, it's a lower high in interest rates that becomes more of an impact on the economy. so looking at in the last four years, every cycle peaked below the prior peak in the rate hiking cycle we know in the fourth quarter of 2018, jay powell got it to 2.25, 2.5

2.5. he hoped to get it to 3. they hoped to raise it to a level write that can then cut. to liesman's point, yes. now it's down to about 330 when looking at the march, april, may fed funds futures next year. because we're already seeing a quick response to the rise in interest rates because we've become so predictive and dependent from a market perspective. we have credit spreads widening out, we have capital markets becoming more discriminating in its funding for companies. >> why aren't some of these things that you're pointing out -- we talked about this also if oil goes down and rates aren't going to go down, we understand it's in response to a slowing economy, but why aren't those positive things for the inflalgs outlook for how far the

fed has to go? why not take it and say i don't care why oil prices are below 100, at least they're below 100 -- were. >> i agree i think we've reached that cyclical peak. the focus is the ratio up until this point -- >> it's not going to improve why is that? why are employees so hard to come by and you need to pay them more that's going to be sticky. that's going to be stickier if commodity prices roll over, isn't it >> yes we're going to have thecyclica rolldown in commodity prices 60% of tpi is services half of that is essentially housing. also the wage thing that you importantly point out is going to be sticky employees want a bigger piece of the profit pie to deal with the higher cost of living. so wage gains are going to be

pers persistent, even if they're going to be below the rate of inflation, employees want to get paid you throw in persist didn't rate inc -- persistent rate increases the question is how quickly does it get to that 2% or below level that we were pre-covid, or does it settle out at a rate of 3% to 4% that while much better than we are today still creates an issue for central banks that still have a level well below that. >> mohammad said there are multi-speed economies. let's talk about the euro now. we could have a much worse slowdown in europe based on all of the mistakes they've made in their energy sort of planning

for the future that could be tough. who knows. i feel bad for people there that this winter, i don't know what's going to happen, if it's a bad winter it could be really nasty they're going to start using coal again possibly. wear a sweater hopefully it's not 15 degrees. i'm not sure we catch quite as bad an economic cold as europe and that's what the euro is reflecting. >> right and that weaker euro enhances the inflation pressures they're going to have to deal with and per the pressures, they need to respond to that when you look at the s&p revenues, we know about half comes from overseas. so it willwill be the big multi-nationals that slow down in europe and also business in china because they've taken a different approach to covid.

no one's immune from the european slowdown. economically speaking, it's almost as big as the u.s you can't be immune to that slowdown there to what mohamed's point to multi-speed, yeah, there will be some countries that grow faster than others, but no one is going to be immune to a notable slowdown in a large area of the world like europe. >> that is a distinction, that we're going to slow down here as well with the global factor, but we can also import some of the worst slowdown that we see in other parts of the world so we get our own case of -- you know, we get a mild case of an economic slowdown, but then we need to sell into those areas. china, you're right. china is totally at risk of another covid shutdown because their entire population or a lot of their population hasn't seen

covid the first time around where i think gottlieb always points out, dr. scott gottlieb, we're in a different place than china. >> i can't even imagine running a small business in shanghai where every day you wake up, you're wondering whether the government is going to close you down, and you've got to tell your employees to stay home. and a week later you tell them to come back a week later, you tell them to stay home. that's no way to run an economy. there's no traction that is gained from that this is the second largest economy. that flows through to other economies in the asian region that seeps into china. we snow germany, china has been their largest trading partner. it's all one big cobweb that's all interconnected that it's going to be hard to separate out that they're going to be immune to this. >> to end, you'd be buying dips or selling rallies for equity. >> well, bear markets are a great time to be buying stocks

some of whenever you get big dips, you find stocks you like from an evaluation perspective but value stocks are valued for a reason, but i do think we've entered a moment where they're going to grow off. it still has multiple progression ahead in addition to the e-part that's going to get hurt. >> the most bullish. >> i was surprised >> it still has time to play out. bear markets are opportunities. >> maybe it's a cyclical bear. everything is cyclical time goes on and on and on secular, we're always headed higher because mankind is advancing hopefully. >> we see population growth and productivity, and we'll get you gdp growth. >> thanks, peter.

>> thanks, joe >> a little less bleak. comingp, mhaan uantt sales falling in the last month. new numbers from robert frank next stay tuned you're watched "squawk box" on cnbc welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha! omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system used by over half of the fortune 500. for a be-agile-like-an-mvp world. workday. for a changing world. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it!

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welcome back to "squawk box. robert frank joins us enthusiasm robert. >> good morning, melissa the second quarter started out great for manhattan real estate. prices just got stronger the median sales price reaching

an all-time record of $1.3 million, the average sales price reaching over $12 million. manhattan is a cash-heavy market more than half the deals done in the quarter were cash. on the high end, over $4 million in sales 99% of the deals were in cash. you would think the city would have avoided all the mortgage weakness we would have seen in a lot of the country, but each month got worse. june saw a bigdown turn. sales contract falling 30% you look at unsold inventory that's starting to pile up for the first time since the pandemic supply up 30%. brokers are waiting to see whether this continues one thing that's supporting the sale side is rents are now reaching a record of $4,000. that was back in may $4,000 a month that's supporting the sale side

a little bit melissa. >> are we seeing investments in home purchases what's the difference there and is investment still fulg up and propping up the market >> most of the post pandemic market is ramping up that's why this market, especially the high end, is so sensitive to stocks. this is the wealth effect we're seeing hitting the top, not mortgages. >> robert, you had a segment with frank i was a little confused. i see the rundown where it says frank report sometimes it's you sometimes it's frank holland. >> you can't tell by the subject matter >> not necessarily i thought about the great "wheel of fortune" before and after

robert frank holland they do those before-and-afters all the time, huh? i'm onto something. >> i know frank has been talking to you about a podcast we've been talking about a podcast called "frankly speaking." >> frank lee -- >> that's good i like that. melissa is always in charge. >> that's what i mean. >> i'm in charge of nothing. >> you come in here -- >> obviously i'm not in charge of anything. >> thank you robert frank, frank holland. do you watch ""wheel of fortune"?" >> no. i don't know nobody who watching "wheel of fortune."

>> what? >> maybe. >> coming up, roger ferguson on what investors want to see in today's minutes. you watch "jeopardy!," don't you? oh, you have a life, i forgot. as we head to break, here's a look aths&t e p. hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

welcome back to "squawk box" in times square checking the futures, now they're in the positive, in the green. look at our set. shouldn't we have this --? >> -- every day. >> there's an edible arrangement. >> amazing. >> melissa lecome comes in here

3:30, 4:00, 5:00, whatever, and yesterday i mentioned, management will probably be sending an edible arrangement. >> here it is. an edible arrangement. >> it brightens my mood. >> it does if the price of making joe happy is an edible arrangement, that's money well spent i think the producers would chip in on their own and buy cantaloupe on a stick. >> it's not just the cantaloupe. it's not just the fruit but the chocolate on the fruit that's got me in a good mood. we should go thank you, management. >> thank you very nice. very, very nice. minutes in the last fed meeting will be this afternoon joining us now, roger ferguson roger, great to have you with us

how are you today? >> great >> you should be on the set. >> to be part of the edible arrangement? >> exactly how have things changed? i feel like things from the investor's standpoint have changed in terms of psyche, in terms of what's going on in the bond mark and inflation rolling over since the actual meeting. what are we going to learn from these minutes? >> i think they're going to enforce the notion of call of 75 basis point moves. i don't think there's any upside to them in changing that i think you put your finger on the question mark in terms of what do they have to say about the economy. in fact, how are they weighing the risk of a slowdown versus inflation. that's as you observe sort of a changing dynamic be mindful, those minutes are from the last meeting.

i haven't heard anything being said in speeches that suggest that they're taking their eye off of the inflation target, so we'll have to watch and see. i think that's really the balance question right now. >> what's your assessingment, roger? we've seen commodity rises roll over firmly and the dollar str strengthen, which helps the fed's goal we've seen yield inversion now how do you put these things together >> i put these things together and recognize indeed the fed's actions and their words are having a desired effect. they're aptly telling markets they're going to raise rates enough there's a fear, i think, shown in the inverted yield curve they'll raise and things may slow down a little more quickly than they'd like everyone is hearing the "r" word, recession word what the market is focused on is

that teeter-totter, that balance, will they get inflation under kroechlt yes, we think they will. on the other hand, there's always a risk they'll go a little too far and slow the economy more than maybe people would like i think the markets are pricey in that possibility as well. this always happens during a si cycle of this type are they going to go too far, cut relatively quickly toward the end of 2023. that's what's going on in the market right now >> roger, for a while, we've been trying to describe this the fed has struggled with it as well initially i think there was reason to believe it was transitory, and that was a decent word to use we're not allowed to say the "t" word anymore because it turned out to be stickier than we thought. it seems different than past

cycles, and now we're seeing -- what i'm getting to, commodity prices are rolling over but i wonder the labor side of things or employment side of things could be stickier. maybe is it possible when supply chain things ease and people run out of some of the pandemic savings, does that ease, too, in the labor market especially we'll see friday, maybe that's weakening too i don't know whether it's transitory, but maybe it's quasi-transitory. >> i wouldn't used transitory as you put it ut, joe that's been retired from everyone's dictionary. this inflation has two or three different causes that are really quite distinct one is the geo politics, energy in particular. in some countries, food as well. we obviously have supply chain issues, some driven by.

owe politics, some driven by china, et cetera then we have a tight labor market which was the sign of an economy that was doing very, very well. these people have been talking than with one word it's not one thing so we'll observe them all changing over time but you put your finger on one which i think is likely to be with us for a long period of time, which is that very tight labor market everyone wants relatively tight labor markets, but there comes a point where things pick up and that becomes worrisome and problematic. to say it's transitory is not right, and the fed is working hard and will be to get demand down closer to supply. they're going to try to avoid a recession, but they're willing to take that risk if need be. >> a good problem to have, roger. a tight labor market and people making more money, people asking

for more money i'm in a half full mood. >> you are indeed. >> that's not the worst thing to have is everyone employed and people able to get better jobs and more money it doesn't -- >> no, it's a good thing to have. >> we've been trying to get that to happen for years. >> we've been trying for years, you're right the issue is when the markets get too tight, you get the inflation and this cycle you want to keep inflation down. >> 2.5 what we go to 3 >> no. you have to be very careful. those are not good days. they should be careful about letting the inflation genie get out of the bottle. there will be a rough ride ahead. >> i like toothpaste out of a tube what's your favorite

you can't unscramble an egg. >> you can't unscramble an egg genie is the hopeful one because there's the hope of putting it back in the bottle. >> right i've seen that happen. >> roger ferguson, thank you. >> my pleasure. >> coming up, i'm trying to decide. >> you can have both the world is your edible arrangement. coming up, the report card, how many are reaching their goals on racial pay eqtyui coming up, don't miss our interview with sofi anthony noto you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

a new study this morning on racial pay equity. leslie picker joins us with the details. >> good morning, mel america's larger employees are increasing pay equity process. the trouble is only companies with a near ore perfect score are the ones sharing information. according to ta new study by just capital, 22% disclose their white to non-white ratio 43% of companies disclosed that they're doing racial pay equity

analyses, meaning roughly half of them are choosing not to disclose the results this may be a case of reporting bias says the corporate director at just capital. >> the companies that we're seeing actually release the actual day day, pay ratio data, tend to be close to equity or already reached equity that's challenging because that means that companies that aren't disclosing that information potentially just don't feel like they've reached that point where they can tell a good story and have reached that risk. >> she knows that there's been an overall jump related to pay equity in the last few years mel? >> leslie, thank you leslie picker. coming up, wti cru bdeack below $100 a barrel. bank of america's top commodities expert will be our

skpesh special guest. he's next.

copper is at a 17-month low and soft commodities like lumber and agriculture are also weak. joining us francisco blanch, head of global commodities and derivatives research at b of a we want to talk about commodities, once again, we can't do it like a monolith, we can't, but it seems like energy, when energy spikes, that can seep into everything else, unlike what happens with everything else that doesn't sort of go the other way so copper's got its own dynamics, right, and depending on wheat or soybean or corn, they have their individual

dynamics depending on supply and the growing season so how do you say it, you can't say something that just applies to all the different commodities, can you, francisco, unless it's energy >> hey, joe, you can't i think what we've been seeing generally is a deceleration in demand, because global gdp is slowing down, u.s., european gdp is slowing down sharply, but also you have demand rolling down, so it's been a bit of a rat race, a tug-of-war if you like between slowing demand and limited supply of availability the worst part of it has hit the european economy because of what's going on with ukraine and russian energy supplies. remember, even though oil traded below $100 a barrel, we still have europe paying close to $100 a barrel for the equivalent for thermal coal at the moment and we're seeing natural gas between

$250 and $300 a barrel for the equivalent across the continent as well. so the gas and power crisis is not over and this is percolating into lower production, lower steel production the problem is this is a rat race, a tug-of-war >> you have to have a feel for what will happen in europe to the energy complex to really make forecasts for other commodities and for overall global inflation >> i think so, and if you look at what's ahead of us in the next six months is, it's a difficult, very challenging time for european economy, because again, heading into winter, we could find severe gas shortages, natural gas shortages that cannot be filled with u.s.

liquid gas there's something knocking off liquid gas out there to make up for the potential loss of russian gas, and i think putin knows that, so he's i think pressing his case very hard via the energy complex on the european economy so we'll see how that turns out. russia has historically had its biggest leverage during the wintertime, not in the middle of the summer, so to me, that's kind of the, if you like, the main issue hanging over the european economy and the global markets is how does russia play its cards on, in terms of ukraine. >> i guess what i'm getting to is, with all that in mind, why should the u.s. federal reserve kill the u.s. economy to deal with something that's beyond their control and happening, you know, an ocean away? so we're importing off that inflation. why should we take the tool and

raise unemployment levels based on something that's happening over there or can they maybe not go as far as what we thought and maybe orchestrate a soft landing here? >> look, i'm generally still positive on the u.s. economy when i look at the commodity complex. the u.s. is the biggest commodity producer in the world, much bigger than russian, and the u.s. is now a net energy exporter as well in terms of petroleum products and liquid natural gas, and now the u.s. is going to be exporting a lot of thermal coal, thermal coal that europe needs because it's not buying russian coal as it used to i think the u.s. is in a pretty good spot. now the issue is of course the labor market labor market's overheated in the u.s., but i do think there's going to be a bit of a change there as well, given the big pullback we've seen in issuance across equity and debt and also i think it's just generally less capital availability, so

companies with stock market crash we've seen are going to be hiring less, so i think the u.s. is already onto a soft landing we'll see if it ends up being soft or hard the u.s. is in a better position than the rest of the word. i'm a bit less worried and the pull back in commodity prices is welcome news for the fed as is the vstrength of the u.s. dolla, which is macing 20-year highs against the euro which again i think will moderate inflation in america. >> what's your take on the stickiness of this rollover in commodity prices and how does it differ across the commodity complex, francisco it sounds like, you know, oil has a path possibly to remain firm i'm wondering what you see for metals, for softs? >> r i think oil, given where we're seeing the prices of global gas and global coal and global electricity is going to be supported into the second half of the year. i think the complex on the metals front is a lot softer and

that's because china is slowing down as well pretty quickly and remember, china buys, consumes 50% of the world's metals, so that in itself is a negative and is going to the slowing down in the housing sector we've seen more months and that cannot be easily turned around i think metals may be a little more negative. energy, i still think it's a supportive environment and for the most part, big shortfall in energy means potentially a shortfall in fertilizer, shortfall in diesel accessibility and generally less supply because russia is blocking off ukrainian exports to the extent they can all of that sets us for potentially higher full inflation, maybe but less so on the energy side given the rest of the world actually slowing down quite dramatically at this point. >> francisco, thanks >> thank you >> i want to ask you one more

thing but i don't think we have time but it was good to have you on and if you did a before and after, it would be francisco blank dublanc, we'll start thinking that way. >> drops his pen like a mic. ar> jeremy siegel on the wild stt to the week for stocks stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc did you know your health has more to do with your zip code than your genetic code?

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good morning p futures flat following yesterday's late session rally. another crypto firm filing for bankruptcy after suffering from huge losses, the latest on the move in digital currencies and what the bankruptcy could be saying about the state of the crypto market. media moguls and tech titans descending on sun valley to talk about the state of the industry, possible deals and much more a live report is straight ahead a the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> good morning and welcome back

to "squawk box" on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joer can nan with melissa lee. andrew and becky are off today u.s. equity futures are a little bit in the red we've seen a little red, a little green back and forth after a big rebound yesterday, which brought the s&p and the nasdaq both into the positive territory, after being sharply lower for most of the session. treasuries at this hour continue to maybe raise a few eyebrows that we're definitely not above 3% on the ten-year, but we're certainly getting flatter and flatter 2, 2.84, 2.81 so that's not flat >> negative. >> that's inverted oil, which was, you know, 120 a couple weeks ago or close to it fell under 100, went back over

100. in fact right now it's at 100. this next gentleman is back, i didn't think about it, dom, who looks at the premarket movers but i feel the loss of not having seen you recently did you have an extended, did you just take a couple of days around july 4th? is that what happened? >> so what happens is, i have two small children, and they're in day care and there are two breaks that are built into my day care coverage, one that happens around the july 4th holiday and one that happens closer to labor day, these are their summer holidays. so i was pretty much daddy day care although my wife -- >> not what i envisioned i thought you were somewhere, you know two over shooting your age, that's whey thought >> i would shoot my age on nine holes. i can shoot my age on nine holes but probably can't do so on 18

i was around i love spending time with my kids and it was an amazing time off but it was more of a staycation, but there was a lot of "daddy this" and "daddy that," so it was a little bit more -- it's actually easier believe it or not for me at work than it is for me to chase those guys around the house. >> thank you, agree 100% >> the only reason to do anything and work is so that you can go do that >> yes, so i can provide for my kids and my family and everything else. melissa, we both have two sets of small children around the house so it's an empathetic type of situation there anyway, to your point, let's get through some of these morning movers here and then we can kind of figure out how we want to go from there because the macro themes, you mentioned the oil trade, you mentioned what's happening with the interest rate side of things those are definitely kind of the drivers of that kind of bigger picture move that we've seen in the marketplace, but let's start off with some of the stocks in focus today in the premarket because these stocks meta

platforms, alphabet, amazon, nvidia, are among those that were the best performers in the entire s&p 500, and nasdaq overall in yesterday's trade amid that big rebound. the nasdaq and s&p in the session and rallied back into positive territory, led by the mega cap names, meta platforms, alphabet, amazon, nvidia right now these days are fractionally lower we saw bigger gains from the stocks in yesterday's session but fractional losses in the premarket trade for big tech next up the macro focus we talked about the dollar index right now you can see there still kind of trucking higher. by the way, from the lows that we saw over the last year to where we are now, it's a 16% gain over the last year, 15% overall. that's a massive move when it comes to currency markets and shows you just how much the dollar has become a focal point for many investors and traders

out there, when the going gets tough, people get going to the dollar but also when things are going well, people apparently go to the dollar as well so there are multiple tailwinds apparently in this kind of trade right now. now, because of that, you are seeing some of these multiyear, maybe multidecade lows of other currencies versus the u.s. dollar if you look at things like the ucrow, we mentioned the 20-year low for the value of the euro against the u.s. dollar yesterday. british pounds, japanese yen and some of the commodity-related currencies like things, canadian dollar, australian dollars are negative as well keep an eye on those ones. we'll end on cryptocurrencies. voyager digital, we talked about that move there, cryptocurrencies catching a little bit more of an interest these days, given the voyager digital bankruptcy filing, big brokerage, lender for cryptocurrencies, shut down withdrawals a few days ago, now it's shutting down completely from a bankruptcy perspective. a lot of it tied to three arrows

capital, the hedge fund, because it fails, voyager digital was a lender to the tune of around $650 million worth of assets to voyager digital to three arrows capital. that played into the discussion as well. bitcoin holding above that 20,000 mark, ether prices $1,139 we're talking about 7% decline froms $68,800 it was at the highs. we'll keep an eye on crypto prices, joe and melissa, back over to you >> dom, thanks >> dom thanks. >> dom chu joining us jeremy siegel professor of finance at wharton school of business >> good morning. >> nice to see you it's a free pass for investors to go back into the growth year names and it's a visual cycle

here >> most certainly. i mean, we are really in a recession. there's no question, the first two quarters here are negative, whether the nbr calls it or not. data was calling off sharply in june i'm interested in the employment report and later today we have the service ism report the fed has to be really careful and i said that a few weeks ago, shocking people. i was saying they were way behind and should have been tightened last year and as they didn't, you know, the inflationary pressures built up and everyone said they have to tighten dramatically, and i think the market is almost overanticipating how much they're going to have to tighten. all flexible prices, and what i mean by that, the commodity prices, housing prices, freight prices, that move up and down on a daily basis, they've rolled

over now, the inflexible prices are wages, and they're still going up they don't respond like the stock market or the gold market, so we're going to see those wages continue to rise, but really the anticipation of the fed tightening and how high they have to go i think is almost excessive now. i think the fed has to be careful. i monitor the money supply and you know, that told me that we were going to have all this inflation that we have well the money supply has been brought to almost a dead stop this year, and that is unprecedented, and i said, you know, three weeks ago, the fed has got to be careful not to slam on the breaks and just crash this economy they've got to watch it. yes, they have to raise and ratify what's going on but they have to realize that most of the inflation now is behind us, even though it's going to be going

through the official statistics over the next six to 12 months >> isn't that sort of the dynamic that you described in terms of wages remaining sticky and going higher and inflation rolling over, isn't that as recipe for demand not to be destroyed as much as the fed needs to be in order to fight inflation longer term? >> well, i think that what's happened is because wages have not kept up with inflation, and really -- >> inflation rolls over, then can it >> well, what we're going to see, the sensitive -- don't forget, the sensitive prices went up 20%, 25%, 30%. the cpi, as recorded, you know, is up, what, 8%, 9%. so those prices have sort of a coming down. there's still, you know, workers have still lost a lot of purchasing power we know about the decline in the stock market

we know the pessimism that we see in these consumer reports, all these things are adding up to the fact, yes, the fed has to do some more timing but maybe they don't have to go to that 3.75% that the funds rate is projecting we might get a debate about whether they're going to go 75 at the end of this month, if the data continues weak and if the data gets really weak there might be a few people there saying maybe we should do 25, and that's a a shocker, i know, but i'm just saying that, you know, my look at -- look at the dollar look dominic was saying, this is incredible, a 15% rise that iss an extremely tight market money is flowing in to get the high, real rates that we have right over here in the you state, real rates of interest have jumped up so much, much higher than the rest of the world, hot money goes here,

that's a deflationary also signal that's going on the fed made a bad mistake, put in too much money. can't slam on the breaks right now. you know, they're going to have to watch a lot of indicators >> as much as the fed might be in a pickle, the ecb is in a worse pickle, jeremy i wonder how you think about what the potential impact europe's problem could be here in the united states and what policymakers do here, if the ecb hasn't even started hiking yet, only had talk and this is what's going on, i mean, if the fed is behind the curve, i don't know what you want to call the ecb is behind at this point >> you know, we actually had more money supply growth relative to trends in the united states, and much more fiscal stimulus than they had in europe, so we had that big initial impulse. fortunately, for the united states, since we are basically energy independent, we're not being as affected as europe by what is going on in the energy

market so really, europe is really actually suffering a supply problem. i never thought we had a supply problem. i thought we had a too much money problem and too many people were trying to buy goods that couldn't be produced. they're now suffering a supply they've got a really difficult situation there in europe, and yeah, they're going to have to fight it and i think a recession there is also inevitable, given what's going on. perhaps we're much worse than the united states. >> professor siegel, thank you for your take. appreciate it. >> thank you very much, melissa. coming up, media moguls, tech titans, gathering in sun valley for the conference. an update on what investors can expect from this oh my god, there's the biggest -- >> the boss. >> the biggest guy, the most

important. plus new this morning -- that's brian roberts and i saw reed hastings, not quite the sag swagger from recent years you might think, although i guess even stranger things is working. and senators on the intelligence committee urging the ftc to investigate tikk.to details after the break. "squawk box" will be right back. i was, but i need a new driver. oh. what kind? one that hits the ball better. okay... i gotcha. let's go to the hitting bay. ♪ ♪ ( golf balls and items crashing to the floor ) oops. maybe we need a new driver for the cart too. you're a funny guy. ( golf balls being hit ) oooh that's nice. that one definitely hits the ball. c'mon, get in. ehhhh, i'm good. suit yourself. oh no, no, no, no, no! ( tires screeching )

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developing story out of washington, two top members of the senate intelligence committee, i know what you're thinking, oxymoron, urging the federal trade comission to investigate tiktok over how it handle user data senators mark warner and marco rubio are citing recent reports that tiktok's parent company bytedance has been accessing data on u.s. users, that raises security concerns china's government could get sensitive data using back door methods tiktok called the reports misleading and i keep returning, melissa to what are they going to find out about people who use tiktok that they're insane? >> right >> they have nothing better to do, that they're wasting their time >> i don't know. >> what are they going to find out? that they don't need to grease the decline of western civilization in any way, that

we're going to do it on our own? >> the other side of the story, though, could be that once upon a time, whenever we heard about tiktok being shut down or curbed, that was seen as a good thing for facebook, for meta, excuse me. and now there's no reaction. >> do you watch tiktok ever? i've never >> hardly ever >> i've seen it, someone will tweet something that's on tiktok >> right, and they draw me in for whatever >> right, for a second so the people that are really using it a lot, what are they doing? they have people they like to follow on tiktok that do crazy things >> people make money influencers can make money by selling things >> okay. okay >> i mean, people have whole businesses based on being -- >> so the most valuable info china could glean from all this, what would that be and what would they use it for. >> that's a good question. i have no idea but that's a great question for -- >> mark warner or marco rubio.

>> marco rubio, yes. >> buying habits i don't know >> anyway. in other consumer news, amazon moving into the restaurant delivery business, buying a small stake in grubhub and offer prime members free access for a year. members get free delivery over 12 bucks the deal could drive traffic for grubhub. amazon shares losing along with most of big tech down about 33%. coming up, sun valley, idaho, getting some very special visitors this week, media execs and tech's top players gathering for the allen and company conference what could be on tap for a big week there check out futures right now, it looks like we are indicated for a lower open s&p down 7, and nasdaq looking to open 30 points lower. we'll be right back. >> announcer: time for today's aflac tricia question. in what year was the nike swoosh created?

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created? the answer, 1971 the logo is one of the most valuable in the world, having worth of about $26 billion media moguls and tech titans have off-loaded into sun valley, idaho, with the allen & company conference julia boorstin is there. >> reporter: macro economic volatility is looming over conversations with the heavy hitters who have flown in, in the past day including warren buffett, he arrived along with larry summers who is speaking on friday, also arriving here is the chief of staff of the treasury, sheryl sandberg fresh on the heels of her announcements of plans to depart from meta, and ceo mark zuckerberg is on the attendee list as well twitter ceo agrawal and elon

musk are speaking here, we haven't spotted either of them just yet netflix ceo ned hastings and ted scerranos will be here if netflix subscribers continue to shrink, that could be an acquisition target even for the likes of comcast cnbc's parent company brian roberts is here as well. warner discovery stock down 37% since the merger closed in april. when i asked ceo dave zazlov yesterday if more deals are coming he said he liked the access they have now and expects to see an accelerated shift to add supported streaming services >> i think we will, because it's cheaper for the customer and the number of ads when it's three minutes or four minutes, it doesn't seem to be as

disruptive there will always be some people that want premium and no advertising, and there's some content that you probably don't want to put any advertising in no matter what some of the hbo content you might not want to put advertising in at all. >> reporter: another media giant, betting big on streaming here, disney's ceo is here along with his content distribution chief and chapek's predecessor bob iger is also here. at the discussions this week there will be a conversation about teens mental health epidemic senators joe manchin and stim scott will be on the panel and the big speaker is cia director william burns. coming up in the next hour, we'll be talking to sofi's ceo, anthony noto, we have a great line-up this week. >> jewelia, i heard you were talking to anthony noto, i

scratched my head, which doesn't look like the other. sofi doesn't look like it hits in the roster of sun valley guests >> reporter: sofi -- anthony noto has been coming since before he was sofi he came when he was still at twitter but there is a real mix of companies here, you know, the ceo of pfizer on one hand and the ceo of some startups, the ceo of a company that does 3-d printed rockets. they have startups here and especially with sofi now a bank, a lot of conversation the future of fintech and crypto, so there will be a lot to talk about with him. >> look forward to that, thank you, julia boorstin. still to come, congressman jake auchinklcloss of > ayses.tt >>st tuned, "squawk box" will be right back

welcome back to "squawk box. looking at how u.s. equity

futures decline at the open, down 15 on the nasdaq. check on treasuries holding fairly steady although still the yield curve remains inverted which of course is a troubling sign for those yield curve watchers, they think this is flashing a warning sign about a recession. the two-year note is 2.83 and ten-year note a 2.809. a check on oil prices are firm, compared to yesterday's decline. brent is higher by 1.4%. wti is up three-quarters of a percent. the euro moving down by 0.7%, breaking 1.02 against the dollar for the first time since december of 2022 is that right? 2012 2012 >> ahead of the fed minutes investors look at two key data points today, the institute for supply management's june services pmi and the labor

department's may jolts report. joining to us break down the feds policy and how congress can help fight rising prices, congressman jake auchincloss, a family of underachievers, quantico trained marine and i guess sloan at mit, so you're educated, it's an mba from sloan, have i got that right, too? so i'm not going to take any talking points you know better than some of the stuff we're hearing from both sides on economics you know how crazy some of it is that's true, isn't it? >> well, good morning. thanks for having me on and we do need sober-minded policy-making on economics right now. the president's been clear that inflation is his top priority as

it should be because americans are in pain right now and we need to expand the productive capacity of the economy to keep up the economy is running hot right now, it grew faster than china for the first time in my life time, 8 million jobs created but on the supply side, we're having a hard time keeping up we have got to cut red tape for housing. we have to implement an all of the above energy investment policy to achieve clean energy independence and we need both more legal immigration and more labor force participation from americans who have been out of the workforce for the last several years. >> what i was referencing additionally, it won't be quite as talking points oriented from the democratic side of things, an op-ed you wrote a while ago, republicans have been politicizing inflation while dems work to fix it. you heard what president biden has been saying about inflation, congressman, and as i said, mba from sloan, aren't there times

where you'd like to talk to him and say, "mr. president, that's clearly not true and you're demagoguing a lot of these issues." do you think oil companies are just gouging do you think food companies don't need to raise prices when input costs rise and they're just profiteering? do you think the problem in all this is just greedy capitalists that are causing, that don't necessarily have -- it's not a free market, it's not that they're just responding to input costs and therefore, raising prices >> well, the president is expressing the frustration of the american people and of many of us. food, energy, these are groebl markets. they have geopolitical and joe yo economic dimensions russia's invasion of ukraine caused it on both sides of house and as you well know the president doesn't have levers in the oval office that can control

those things on a dime what does highlight we need an all of the above clean energy. the united states cannot be subject to saudi arabia and iran >> clean energy we spent trillions of dollars on renewables and 1% or 2% of global energy. all of the above clean energy, just say all of the above energy only clean energy or so we do more drilling, should we continue to open leases? should we reopen anwar, do the keystone pipeline, all of the things we put a damper on, is that what all of the above means to you >> we clearly need natural gas as a bridge technology and nothing is stopping right now oil companies from executing on the permits that they have, but let's be very clear here, for as long as the united states is dependent on oil, it means that we have to make phone calls to saudi arabia and iran and venezuela when times get tight

we need to have energy dominance here at home and we need to have a clean energy future that does not sacrifice our kids' welfare just for lower gas prices. >> the best case scenario for not being dependent on oil in terms of years in your view, is what two years, five years, ten years, 30 years, 50 years? what is it >> we are sailing towards the north star of clean energy independence and there's going to be waves and wind along the way that we've got to navigate >> is it ten years >> it's a generational challenge. >> when do you think we can get off oil? 10 years, 20 years >> i do not want my kids dependent on oil from russia and saudi arabia that's my generation's obligation >> then we aren't doing what it takes in this country to keep us not dependent on foreign dictators. we're over hat and hand to saudi arabia and venezuela, and we're not opening up the spigots here,

congressman. >> we're heading toward, as i said, sailing towards the north star of clean energy independence but that requires investments in energy here at home let me give you one example. the eastern seaboard of the united states could be the offshore wind leader in the entire world the president's got a plan for 30 xgi gigawatts by 30 we need to prevent an amendment from becoming law so we can achieve offshore wind dominance, create good jobs and energy on the eastern seaboard >> in terms of -- we'll switch gears a little bit in terms of the federal reserve, what do you think they need to do right now, and do you think that we printed too much is that part of what -- of the inflation that we're seeing right now, and it is global, how much do you think it's too many dollars chasing too few goods after the pan demdemicpandemic,

chain. did we respond too much to the pandemic did we overdo it or some of it didn't find it to the right place so that we've created this problem ourselves? >> well, when i questioned chairman powell, when he came to the financial services committee for our oversight hearings, what i pressed him on was not just his credibility in lowering expected inflation, but also in the feds credibility in preventing unexpected inflation. the only thing more painful than high inflation is high unexpected inflation, and he has been clear that he keeps the fed's credibility as a price stability institution as his number one priority. i'm not going to comment on individual fed decisions they're an autonomous body almost a year ago i made clear the era of easy money needed to come to an end it's not letting the president and congress off the hook. energy, money, housing are real

world phenomena and we need to come to domestic policy as well but we need republicans to come to the table and work with us. what i've heard from republicans in the last six months is them tying themselves in a knot over guns and abortion and trump instead of reaching across the table saying how can we expand housing production and cut red tape, how can we work on expanding legal immigration, how can we get some votes for medicare negotiation of drug prices, we'll do that on a party line vote. why aren't republicans with us that lowers costs at the kitchen table. >> congressman, would you have or do you still support some type of build back better a neo build back better, maybe a trillion-dollar plan do you think it should include tax hikes in an economy that at this point seems to be flowing >> well, i'm not going to comment on nebulous legislation. what i will say is i supported

build back better last year and i support progressive tax code that funnels some of those revenue streams into clean energy tax investments and i support medicare negotiation of drug prices when done thoughtfully that can both incentivize biomedical innovation, which is critical to my home state in massachusetts that, can help us get to cures for alzheimer's and cancer and diabetes and can also lower out-of-pocket costs for americans who are struggling especially medicare beneficiaries with those premiums and those out-of-pocket costs. >> congressman, i'm still think being the exchange you had with joe about the president's tweets and placing the blame on oil companies and also the notion that you think that inflation is becoming politicized that sounds like inflation is becoming politicized, and that tweet came straight from the white house. do you think, and this is a direct question, do you think that oil companies are simply profiteering or do you think they have a case for higher costs and you know, i

mean this is what happens in a free market. >> so two things can be true at the same time. one is that russia's invasion of ukraine was a severe supply side shock for the global oil markets and yes, they are global and two is that big oil has been poorly run for at least a decade now and wall street investors will be the first ones to tell you that they have not done good capital allocation and taking an inward look at how they have made investments, they're blaming permitting regulations and environmental rules meant to keep clean air and clean water i find that unimpressive most of all, i do not want my kids to be having the same conversation as i'm having right now you. i want us to have clean energy independence as a country. >> i understand that >> that would be a transition. >> that's the road, that's the north star you keep citing and i understand having a long-term plan and i'm all for having a long-term plan in order to get this country to be energy independent, period, but when we say that prices at the pump are

too high and that gas stations should lower the costs and blaming, placing the blame on refiners, refiners really don't own too many of the gas stations i just don't understand what the point of this messaging is to the american people. >> if your point is that we need politicians in washington to come together and solve problems, i am totally on board. as you said, i went on fox news almost a year ago to propose bipartisan solutions for rising costs. that was back when inflation was projected at 4%, so the urgency has only increased, and we know what we need to be doing we have to cut red tape for housing, we need to make more investments in energy. we need more labor force participation. some of what we're seeing across the economy is that we've got one american worker looking for every two open jobs right now. we need more legal immigration and we need more people to get back to the workforce. i'm on board for all of that all of those initiatives that i just described could be bipartisan, but the president

does not really have a good faith negotiating partner right now in congress. >> all right, congressman, we're going to end it there. i'm just thrown back into you know where the star market is right there on the mass pike i used to live right across from there in newtonville >> i used to work there growing up >> it's over -- >> maybe he bagged your groceries, joe >> that could -- and another thing i was going to talk to you about was, you know, just boot camp did you ever -- you never -- i would cry if i went to marine -- i would. i just wondered, do any recruits ever cry in marine boot camp do you ever see that did you ever feel like saying i'm out of here? because i can't imagine i could have gotten through that >> part of the point is that the only people who graduate are the ones who don't quit. >> that's right, that's right. that's why i'm here and you're there. anyway, thank you for your service. admirable coming from his

family, going into the marines congressman auchincloss, hope to see you again soon and i think we were walking around the same part of cambridge at one point, kendall square >> have a good morning >> you, too. coming up the fda temporarily suspending a ban on juul ecigarettes less than a month after ordering the company to pull the companies from the market and take a look at this morning's biggest winners and losers on the nasdaq in the premarket session. "squawk box" will be right back.

the food and drug administration issued an administrative stay on the order issued last month for vaping company juul to pull its electronic cigarettes from the market the agency said on twitter the stay temporarily suspends the marketing denial order while it conducts furtheriew but doesn't rescind it the fda banned juul sales on june 23rd. a day later a federal appeals court temporarily blocked the government ban, part of a sweeping effort to provide

scientific scrutiny to the multibillion-dollar vaping industry after years of regulatory delays. the stain on the market the companies must show their ecigarettes benefit public health good luck. in practice, that means proving that adult smokers who use them are likely to quit or reduce smoking regular cigarettes while teens are unlikely to get hooked on them. another one of those things that confounds me at time when i see the mechanical things and steam coming out of them i'm in a world that has just left me behind i think sometimes, melissa do you ever feel that way? >> i don't even know what to say. i feel you're the old man. >> i do but i'm not that old really i mean, really right? >> just nine years, it's a mindset, joe, and according -- >> does every generation by the time they croak not recognize the world they grew up in? is that what happens

you're too young to know coming up, stocks tuesday turnaround, fighting to carry over into today's trading session. we'll talk stocks and more after the break. later, sofi's ceoant know noto on rising rates, the state of crypto, and much more. ng tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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tech stocks drove the nasdaq positive yesterday as the rest of the market declined as software stocks are performing well, semiconductors continue to lag.

joining us is jared weis feltgreat to have you with us. >> thanks, melissa >> micron, they talked to investors the beginning of june and came out weeks later and warned again, youthat? why are they well-positioned >> so taking a step back here, we've been pretty cautious here on semiconductors year-to-date, and you think about going into a global recession with global growth slowing, and a sector that really benefitted during work from home, during the depths of covid when you think about all of the demand that was pulled in. so with that as a backdrop, we're now facing significant estimate revisions that are getting cut across the board, so what we like to call in terms of buying the confession, when you take a step back and think about the fact that micron just guided eps 40% below the street into the forward quarter. smartphones are slowing, pcs are slowing, the pc market has declined 10% this year it's expected to be flat earlier

in the year. that was going to grow mid-single-digits earlier this year all of that is now catching up to the point where we're getting the estimate cuts and you're talking about a stock that is now approaching book value when you take a look at the broader semiconductor complex, i think you need to be selective and you want to focus on names that are really going to have the significant estimate revisions which investors can have comfort that those numbers are de-risked going forward. >> it's all about managing expectations, it sounds like you think micron has done that has the rest of the semiconductor sector done that, or is there a lot more earnings revisions downward that need to happen in order to make this space in general viable? >> that's exactly right. i think we're just getting started. this is all part of the bottoming process. micron cut their outlook for semiconductor capital expenditures heading into fiscal '23. that's going to help the supply demand situation i think we're going to see a lot more of that we're going to see rougher times ahead for the next three to six months i think this could be setting up

well heading into 2023 as supply, demand becomes in balance. we have not really seen a ton of estimate cuts yet, demand has for the most part still held up. we've had double, triple ordering in the system that needs to work its way out it sets up for better times ahead. >> how do you answer the question to investors when o'might want to say semiconductors are cyclical for heading into a recession if europe looks like the recession is going to be worse than we anticipated a month ago, how can you be in any of these names? >> it's a fair point, and it's a really difficult backdrop. i think that's why you've seen significant multiple compression for the entire group if you look at the analog sector in general, names like microchip, analog devices, text instruments. those multiples have compressed significantly. you're talking 40, 50% plus multiple compression from highs. a lot of that is priced into these stocks here in terms of investors expecting forward numbers to be at risk. the answer to your question

would be these stocks are very forward looking. they are arguably the most efficient in all of tech fwirch how cyclical they are. >> does buy software still stand at jeffries, jared >> it does i think when you think about the fact that the ten-year yield has now significantly retraced over the last two and a half weeks just putting things in perspective in terms of realtime from 3.5% down to 2.8% in a matter of two weeks, that has significant implications in terms of the sub sector rotation we're seeing within tech the software sector in particular is vulnerable to movements in long-term rates, and our chief market strategist talked about this yesterday in terms of if the fed can successfully reanchor long-term inflation expectations and we migrate away from stagflation towards recessionary conditions, that's a really positive backdrop for software in terms of scarcity value in secular growth in this kind of environment. >> if i were to say, if we knew

the answer that, you know, the ten-year yield would remain at or around where it is right now, does that open the door for buying a bigger swath of technology >> absolutely, and i think in particular software, if you look at the multiple compression within software, you know, if you look at the igb as a proxy for software, that peaks at about 18, 19 times revenue back at the height of covid in terms of when interest rates were approaching zero that has now retraced down to about six and a half times, basically close to its ten-year low. so if we can stabilize here from an interest rate perspective, you can absolutely see a reflation of multiples combined with the fact that we've had $150 billion of software m&a year-to-date that's above 2021 levels. >> in terms of the notion, though, jared, that in order for a market downturn to be complete, so to speak, investors need to start selling the generals, you know, the stalwarts, the big cap technology stocks, and we've

seen some of that happen, but not to the extent of other pockets of technology. do we need -- in your view do we need to see that happen in order for you to be convinced, even if the ten-year-year yield is at 2? >> if you look at the large cap in faang, my perspective would be that these stocks have gotten crushed. meta is down 50%, netflix is down 70% am faang as a category is probably trading around ten times ebitda a lot of negativity is priced into this group when you look at meta at 12 times earnings, five times ebitda they were just put into the value index as part of the russell reconstitution i certainly think you've seen a lot of that weakness already reflected in a lot of the large cap tech names. >> so that's done. i mean, that's actually good news then, no? >> for sure. you know, if you look at 2022 as it's playing out, it's really a tale of two cities

the first half of the year was all about multiple compression across the board for the market and for tech in particular, and now as we think about the second half of the year into 2023, the question really is going to be how much earnings are at risk and what are those estimate revisions look like. i think micron's a great example where despite a 40% cut to estimates, the stock now on a two-day basis is higher than it was last week. >> jared, great to see you thanks. >> thanks, melissa. coming up, the aforementioned interview we're going to have with anthony noto, the sofi ceo joins us live. plus the fed releasing minutes later today. we'll get you up to speed. the futures have worsened a little, down about 90 points on the dow, 53 on the nasdaq, 54. stay tuned, you're watching iss bck x. th icn

. good morning, gains and losses for futures so far today, but we're still kind of in a better position after that late rally yesterday, but, you know, terrible first half of the year with the rebound yesterday

we're not sure where we are in terms of short-term, en intermediate term. the euro dropping to a 20-year low against the dollar the dollar index is soaring. we're going to talk all about the latest market moves, the fed, crypto and much more with sofi's ceo anthony noto live from this year's sun valley conference as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market side in times square becky and andrew are off today let's take a check on u.s. equity futures we saw a decline of as much as 2%, mid session yesterday, and we came back late in the session this morning we are looking to be under a

little bit of pressure with the s&p looking to lose about 14 at the open, nasdaq looking to be down by about 56 at the open treasury yields, the spreads remain negative. yield curve remains inverted the ten-year note breaking, 2793 right now. the two-year is at 2.8. actually, we're not inverted the euro weakening against the dollar breaching 102 for the first time since december of 2002 we're watching this closely as the calls get louder and louder for the euro to break parity against the u.s. dollar sometime soon look at the u.s. dollar index hitting its own 20-year high one of the best performing assets this year is the u.s. dollar these are stunning moves in the currency markets and in the treasury markets for this matter. >> gold goes to 1,800 and the dollar goes to new highs and all we worry about is inflation, none of that seems consistent logically. strong dollar should help

inflation. gold should be surging, if this was going to be a wage price spiral that lasted a number of years, you figure to protect your dollars, purchasing power, you'd need gold, but the dollar's at new highs. news just out, the united kingdom's competition and markets authority opening an investigation into microsoft's acquisition of activision blizzard the watchdog agency said it would look at whether the nearly $69 billion will lead to higher prices or less choice for consumers. it set a deadline of september 1st for an initial decision, and more trouble in crypto land, lender voyager digital says it filed for bankruptcy a week after it suspended withdrawals, trading and deposits, the company's ceo said the move was prompted by recent volatility in the crypto markets combined with the default of three arrows capital, from a voyager subsidiary. and amazon striking a deal to add a grubhub membership to

its list of benefits of prime members. the retail giant will have an option to take a stake in gru grubhub. rival players are getting hit on this news. >> let's get over to dom chu with a look at this morning's top premarket movers >> melissa, joe, if you take a look at some of the acceleration we're seeing in some of these stocks in the premarket, we are noticing some individual names getting some more activity we'll start with shares of altria, the big u.s. tobacco company up 2.5% right now, again, still down about 10% on a year-to-date basis, and one of the big reasons why for that particular move here in the second half of this first half of the year is tied to its stake in juul labs the e-cigarette maker. the fda had moved to ban juul products in the u.s. is rescinding that, temporarily suspending the ban on juul and the e-cigs until they can find out whether or not there's a benefit for juul and its e cig products

juul products can still be sold. that's seen as an incremental gain overall for altria, so those shares up 2.5% because of that link up with juul and the fda's decision to temporarily suspended ban on juul products also wactching what's happening with analysts' notes, coinbase down about 4% right now. it gets downgraded to basically a neutral rating they've also cut the target price fairly dramatically. they're saying there are incremental issues facing coinbase, one of which is its inabilities possibly to attract more talent and more workers going forward, given some of the macro issues we're seeing in crypto that joe had just mentioned. watch coinbase global and then another fintech type company, this is rocket mortgage, rocket companies. the big fintech company specializes in housing and lending. those shares are up 4.5% right now, thanks in part to analysts at wells fargo who have now upgraded the stock to an outperform from a neutral

rating they like among other things the valuation that we've seen compressed, right, because on a year-to-date basis we've lost about 40% of its value so rocket company's catching a bit of a bid there joe, those are some of the analysts' notes coming up. one that's getting a little bit more traction is this big call from goldman sachs adjusting their base case and bear case scenario we'll continue to watch those apple shares in the premarket as well >> joining us now for more on the markets, head of derivative strategy at rbc capital markets. always good to get your insight from the derivative side of things, the options side of things maybe you can even help me with the vix. if i'm counting on the vix going to 40, i'm going to be waiting a while, i think, amy, no bottoms until the vix gets into the mid to high 30s, what's the problem? >> yeah, you know, people have been pretty angry with the options market, joe, i think, because they've done a lot of

underperformance -- >> cooperating. >> it's not cooperating, right >> and we're of course seeing other leading indicators that they are cooperating, that are more kind of reflecting the concern in the market. one is rate volatility the percentile right now of rates volatility versus vix is kind of at a five-year high, essentially suggesting that rates volatility has moved to elevated levels and we're still seeing kind of a sub 30 vix. i think that as we get into earnings season, that does start to kick start again. that is exactly what happened last earnings season i do think we're in a little bit of a calm before the storm period, joe. you know, does that mean vix goes to 40 i don't know your guess is as good as mine on that i do think we get a good kick start. >> i guess that we can never feel that it's safe to go back into the water that's kind of hanging over our head, some of the sentiment indicators, which the vix is kind of a reflection of don't

seem to have gotten negative enough is there any way that we're wrong about that people aren't -- people hate the market, amy. i mean, i wouldn't call this complacency right now. >> no. you know, there's so many narratives to pick and choose from one i think that makes a lot of sense is there was a lot of de-risking and degrossing, and frankly, the market is down a lot. why do you not see a pickup in demand for hedges, a pickup in volatility because people have nothing left to protect or they have taken it and gone home. the other thing i think is going to happen. if uj back to last earnings season, think of what happened with walmart, target, with netflix. that day options -- moved down 35%. so the ability, i think, of volatility to surprise you is still there, and i think it begins with single stocks. so i think we're going to start to see really big single stock

moves that are just completely outsized compared to what options we're pricing and then i think that kind of cycles back and eventually does feedback up to that index level. >> amy you're constantly looking at like almost the -- there's a lot of -- there's levels to look at in the market and equities and rates and everything else, and you're way down in the weeds. have you seen periods like this before is it similar tothing, and when you look at these very arcane measures, have you been really surprised by anything lately that they just hadn't seen, and can you explain why it's happening >> yeah, you know, look, i would say i've been doing this for almost 20 years, and each market cycle is different i think what has happened is if you think back to the pandemic, things were really, really weird, you know. we had this kind of gamestop yolo amc period where everyone

was sitting there buying calls there was this what i would characterize as the great normalization, and now i think the pendulum has completely swung the other way, you know, given the concerns out on the market, the kind of tails and skew of the market are still at five-year lows to me that strikes me as really odd, and i think that part of the reason is because, again, of that de-risking and degrossing, but part of it is because the market is simply, you know, in a regime that it hasn't been in for a really long time and volatility kind of has to reprice that regime. so i think that's what's happening right now. one thing i'll tell you, joe, is this isn't true when you look at the bond and credit proxies that are in the equity market so when you look at hyg or bkln, these are all the bond proxies those volatilities are through the roof they are pricing in kind of significant tail events. i always think that is a leading indicator that bleeds through

eventually to equity volatility. >> the cost to protect positions and companies that are more dependent on credit, amy, sound like it costs a lot more as well if you put all these things together, it seems like there is some concern about credit issues first and maybe that will trickle through to war to the equity side of things. >> yeah, no, you make a good point, and we've been tracking kind of two cohorts, melissa one is companies that, you know, have financing needs and a very high leverage ratios and negative free cash flow, compared to kind of your apples of the world with really strong balance sheets so when you kind of look at let's say the top 50 names in each by market cap, what's like that differential in hedging right now. if you were just going to go out and buy 10% out of the money put two months out, how does that hedging differential look in companies that have serious financing needs in a rate environment like this, versus ones that don't, it costs about five times as much, and that break even on that put is about

double to me that's a significant statistic that tells me that fundamentally we have priced in some of that risk premium. it's just that if you think about how the market cap weights flow into the index level, it tends to be those large cap companies that get the most weight, and so, you know, there is kind of this difference that you see with this market cap weighted volatilities versus the ones that are kind of equal weighted volatilities. >> i'm just wondering if all these -- what happens to all these indicators when on the horizon putin could invade europe or there could be a deadly variant that's just as cont contagious, it seems like it's hard to make any determinations when the geopolitical things we don't know -- are they worse than ten years ago it seems like these things that we said could never happen i guess an asteroid imminently ready to crush earth could be the next thing there are things that we never

considered that are in the cards now, i wonder what does that do to the drerivatives markets or the risk market? >> that's a great question, kind of morbid. if you think about it, the really bad tail risks in the market, like nuclear war and asteroid, they just by definition aren't priced into the market because we're just not really going to be around to trade those things so i guess the equity market is in some sense a little bit more positive than that but you're right, there have been a lot of known unknowns, right? we all knew the fed was going to get here eventually, there have certainly been these known unknowns, like a pandemic, and what's happening with russia and ukraine. that can happen on the upside too. i feel like everyone in the market is really depressed but it can happen on the upside too. >> it's a sad state of affairs i can always say this, the world can only end once, amy, so we got that going for us, which is nice i think, right can it only --

>> yes >> got that right? >> we think so >> love having you on, amy i feel smarter, i think people at home are like, wow, i really got to get into business to follow this, but it's -- i mean, it's so good and so helpful. it's just complex. amy, thanks. >> thank you >> the whole world is like that. >> derivatives >> yeah. >> there's a whole show about derivatives trading every friday >> wait a minute, on what network? >> amazing >> are you kidding me? >> 5:30 p.m. eastern time. >> that's awesome. i'm going to check my local listings. a can't miss interview live from the conference in sun valley, idaho, julia boorstin, what do you have on tap? >> well, melissa, geopolitical concerns, questions about the health of the consumer, and macroeconomic uncertainty, we're going to be talking about all that and more with anthony noto, the ceo of sofi. that's coming up after the break. new projects means new project managers.

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the biggest names in tech and media descending on sun valley, idaho, julia boorstin is there and joins us now with a guest.

julia. >> reporter: i'm joined by anthony noto, the ceo of sofi. thanks so much for being with us here today >> thanks for having me. >> our first live guest of the year anthony, since you were last on cnbc, the fed, of course, boosted rates by 75 basis points what is that latest move do to your business? >> in periods of uncertainty and volatility, the need for financial services goes up, and for those viewers sofi has three different segments of its business we have a lending business, unsecured personal loans, mortgages, student loans we also have a technology platform we enable many of the fintech companies to provide payment activity and then we have credit cards, checking, and savings and investment we're seeing really strong demand in unsecured personal loans. we're also offering a 1.5% interest rate on our checking account, which is unmatched. those businesses definitely benefit from that environment, and investing is something that we recommend to our members that they do it throughout time through dollar cost averaging. the demand for financial

services products in this environment increases. >> in an environment which is incredibly volatility. we've been talking this morning about the big swings that we've seen in the stock market how is that impacting the behavior not just of investing but also of trading, how your customers are seeing their opportunities right now and the risks i should say >> we really have to stick to our discipline even though the n demand is up we have to stick to the fundamental approach we have in lending. we only lend to a high end consumer, $160,000 of household income is average income for a borrower with a 740 fico score we're watching that area really closely. on investing we're encouraging our investors to be diversified. one of the reasons we offer stocks and fractional shares and etfs and robo is so that they can diversify their holdings and navigate through a volatility environment like this. >> with that window into the american consumer, what are you seeing right now i know this is a we cannot only of our viewers but of all the ceos here in sun valley. >> our guidance called for 60%

year-over-year growth in revenue in a billion dollars in 2021 to $1.5 billion and above that in 2022, and we are thriving in this environment, both because we're taking share from traditional banks in addition to the fact that our members are doing more and more with less every day. >> i mean, look, i know your earnings aren't coming up in a month, you can't give us too much insight in terms of what's going on in your financials, give us some insight into the state of of the consumer, of your consumers, has their behavior changed in the past couple of months, earnings in the past month as we've seen so much pressure on the market. >> i'd say the demand for our products has stayed really consistent and once people use our products whether they're investing or they're spending with a credit card or spending through their checking and savings account, it's remained consistent and with what we've seen in the past the most important thing for us is to make sure we don't over extend ourselves in any way to capture too much of that demand. we're looking at a vast amount of economic data to make sure that we're still green across the board. >> but is the fact that the

demand that you're seeing from consumers is consistent, does that say something more about your consumers who happen to be these more affluent consumers or do you think this could be extrapolated more broadly in terms of the way americans as a whole are spending and saving right now. >> we do have a higher end consumer, a massive -- you really have to look at the low end, i think it would be naive to think higher gas prices is not affecting the basket size, the spending on categories of the lower end consumer we're watching that very closely. that will be the first person that's hit, and then it will cascade up through the spectrum of economic demographics. >> another factor that's going to impact your consumers is what president biden does in terms of whether or not he cancels more student debt what are you anticipating there and what would the ripple effect be on your business. >> there's sort of two elements to the student loan situation. we're very fortunate in that we've built a diversified business and our student loan, refinancing business has been operating at less than 50% of where it was precovid, and we are still hitting record

quarters i think he'll stick to his campaign promise, which is to forgive $10,000 of student loan debt for those in need that won't really have an impact on us negatively it will actually have an impact positively it will give consumers that have student loan debt certainty that they should refinance now when rates are allow. i think the advisers to the president are not helping him. the stimulus that they're providing through student loan moratorium is $5 billion a month. it's $130 billion over the last two and a half years that's throwing fuel on the fire of inflation, and this is when we should be helping people lower their debt and lower their cost of debt instead because they haven't taken action, we're not helping the american people. end the moratorium and give certainty unforgiveness so the american consumer can make a decision on their debt and lower it for the long-term. >> ultimately you see those consumers then taking that certainty and making other financial decisions. >> absolutely. the problem with the last two and a half years is they're taking that $5 billion of

stimulus a month and spending it in ways that's not sustainable, and once the student loan moratorium ends, they're going to have to start paying back their debt, cut back on their spending it will have a negative -- a positive impact on inflation and up until this point it's had a negative impact on inflation >> shifting back to your business at sofi, the stock is down about 15% in the past month. jim cramer yesterday said it doesn't make sense that sofi is a $5 stock but he also doesn't see any catalyst for this stock coming up. what's your response to him? >> my response is what we can control is executing right now we're trading around 4 1/2 to -- investors are wondering will the recession have a negative impact on loans. will it have a negative impact on other parts of the business, because we haven't been around this part of the environment, they're waiting to see what happens. what i keep saying to our company let's keep delivering the results. we put the points on the board and ultimately we reflect on our

stock. we've built such a diversified environment that can grow. >> what about crypto, we've seen bitcoin is down about 36% just in the past month. how much has that put a damper on that part of your business, which was growing at one point. >> it's a very small piece of our business, the fact that we're in all of these categories is a one stop shop, and we have a technology platform that allows us to diversify away from individual situations with different asset classes. it's a relatively small piece and not when they'll have an impact on our overall outlook. >> some consumers who have clarity on their student debt might use that to refinance their loans. we were also talking off camera about the fact that mortgage rates are on the rise. how are you seeing that impact consumer behavior around mortgages as a whole. >> similar to other low rate products like mortgages, as rates have increased the demand for student -- for mortgage refinancing has gone down.

we're making the transition as a company from roof financing mortgages to purchase mortgages, which is a longer process from an operational standpoint. you have to time to fund equation, and we've been doing that over the last six months. >> so much going on, and i know we will learn much more when you report your next earnings in early august anthony noto, ceo of sofi, thank you so much for joining us today. guys, back over to you. >> julia, thank you. coming up after a break, these wall street recession fears, justified how accurate are these fears when most of the street is thinking we're having a recession? with commodity prices falling and the yield curve inverting, we're going to talk about that next, a milestone for ev sales in arimeca, new numbers are next when "squawk box" returns.

welcome back to "squawk box," the futures right now, kind of the midpoint for where we've been for the morning, maybe a little worse down 80 on the dow, the nasdaq down 44, s&p off 12. >> if it feels like you've been seeing more electric vehicles on the road, you're right it's not just because of high gas prices phil lebeau joins us with the story. good morning, phil. >> good morning, melissa it was just a couple of years ago where ev sales were 1.5% of

total sales. we're starting to see that acceleration take a look at these numbers from jd power. these are the initial numbers for q2 in terms of retail sales. what you and i are buying out at a dealership or directly from an automaker, ice, internal combustion engine vehicles down to just 82% of the market. evs now above 5%, tickling 6%. i wouldn't be surprised if when the final numbers come in that it is at 6%. this is all towards the acceleration that we're expecting through 2025, and where it really takes off will be in 2024 and in 2025 as we move towards 2 million vehicles, more than 2 million vehicles a year expected to be sold that 24 and 25 increase, that's because you see a number of plans that will be hitting optimal production or coming online good example of this, rivian now rivian's plant in central illinois when they first started up production last year, people had high hopes for them to

quickly ramp up production they've had supply chain issues, not only with semiconductors, but with other ones, when i spoke with r.j. -- he said 99% of what they need to build a vehicle they have. occasionally it's those one or two pieces that are keeping them from ramping up production any quicker. they are gradually increasing their production as you take a look at shares of rivian, keep in mind that the number people will be focused on as they give us their production totals going into the third quarter and the fourth quarter, 25,000 vehicles. that's how many they expect to build this year. if they can increase from that and then grow from there, obviously that's going to be some momentum, not only for shares of rivian but all ev stocks bottom line is this, guys. i know a lot of people are sitting there saying we hear a lot about evs, but it doesn't seem like they're taking off in terms of sales we're seeing the acceleration, but it really starts to ramp towards the end of next year and into '24 and '25. >> if prices for the components like batteries remain high simply because there's a scarcity out there, that bodes

poorly for the profit margins or the automakers if they're going to be selling more and more evs and themargins are still thin unless they can pass on all the costs to the consumer. >> right, and ultimately melissa, you get to the key point for the auto industry to do that. conversion into evs, you need the price of those vehicles to come down. the average ev right now, i think it sells for like 55, $56,000. look, there's a decent market there, but you need that to come down into the $40,000 range, and everybody says we're working on that gm and honda are working together, and they say in a few years they'll have, you know, a $40,000 ev ready for market, if not lower price. that's really what the industry needs for ev sales to take off >> phil, thanks, phil lebeau >> you bet coming up, what economic levers does the biden administration have to pull if we end up in a prolonged dow downturn former council of economic advisers chairman austin gools by and michael strain will be

with us next to hash it out, stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc live from the nasdaq marketplace in times square

welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. the futures about where they were for most of the morning session, down not even triple digits on the dow, nasdaq's improved a little bit down just 33 now crude oil has been right around par, right around 100 and a little bit above, a little bit below now, just over yesterday gold settled at its lowest level since last october, silver and copper their lowest level since 2020 >> recession fears prompting a dramatic change in the outlook for the fed, but is that on target senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with a look at the reset for fed expectations the market's done a lot of work for the fed, steve >> yeah, and then it's gone the other way, though, melissa this is what's interesting more than 80 basis points of fed tightening has come out of the market in just the past couple of weeks as markets think a recession is on the way, and the fed is going to respond later next year by cutting rates and

cutting rates pretty sharply just three weeks ago, the futures market priced the peak funds rate at 408, and that was in the contract for july 2023. weaker economic data came along gathering recession clouds, e ng to a peak funds rate of 327. is that right? 326 for february of 2023 another 170 basis points, take a look at the curve now or 1.7% of tightening is expected over the next eight months. 50 in september, and two 25s coming along once that hit the peak rate of 326 it then priced to cutting and bring rates back down by the year end 2023. a alex man zara writes the fed appears to be successfully squeezing out inflationary expectations by replacing them with hard recession.

not everybody is with this new dovish fed coming. wells fargo writing the market is pricing too much easing by the fed in 2023. we are skeptical the fed would do an abrupt u-turn into easing mode welsh thinks the peak fund rate has to hit 4% before the fed is done what could make this pricing correct, a sustained decline in inflation, fixed income markets picking up on some sense that inflation is waning from the lower commodity price you've seen there and the strength of the dollar we'll get more detail on the fed outlook today in the minutes of the june meeting, and melissa, just real quick, it's hard for me to see a recession if you have a resurgent or a strong service sector and strong jobs numbers coming friday. >> i mean the dynamic, of the strong dollar and waning inflation, let's say inflation has rolled over and we see the strength in the dollar, the strength in the dollar is really at this point being driven by the weakness in the euro, and there's not much that can be done about that. i don't know how much power the

ecb has -- >> no, you kind of thatwant than terms of helping your inflation fight, right >> sure, sure. >> it may be something that hurts u.s. exporters, but that whole process, that whole dynamic is something that helps bring down domestic inflation, and you're right, it's because of the weakness of the euro, but we'll take it any way we can get it the outlook for european tightening is 140 basis points while the fed having already added about 160 is seen adding another 170, so it's that differential between how much more the fed is going to do compared to the ecb, that seems certain to be driving this weakness in the euro, and make sure that you and joe have your parity party hats available for when it happens. >> it could be any day -- >> and your parity party hats ready, yes, for sure. >> any minute really given the huge moves that we've seen in single days. >> and we're going to -- this

next thing, i wish you could st stick around for. >> i'm going to listen for sure, i'm very excited about this next one. >> joining us now to talk more about the economy and the fed and about d.c.'s policy options if we end up in a reception, austin guls by served as chairman of the council on economic advisers under president obama, and we're very close. we keep talking about doing things together. that's what people do, we got to get together, but a lot of times it doesn't happen. maybe it still will. we're going to have that lunch now a professor at chicago's blue school of business, and michael strain director of economic policy studies at the american enterprise. let's start with this, austin. listening to steve, i was struck by we can go back historically at different periods and arit seems like the current period we're always in is never the same it kind of rhymes but there's always nuance to it. this is very difficult to

navigate what's going on here's where i'm going with this, the president always talks about the putin price hike there's a lot to that. look what's happening in europe. europe has got serious problems with energy, so inflation is going to stay high over there. should we be killing our economy here, the fed that is, and orchestrating a slowdown in responding to something that's really a problem across the ocean? are you frustrated that we're trying to slow things down, austin, when we all want growth? >> yeah, a little, though, can we just back up for a second you were supposed to take me to the finest dinner in new york city, and now we got downgraded to lunch is that what you just said you said, oh, we'll have lunch one of these days? >> have you opened your 401(k) have you opened your 401(k) after the first half of this year >> we may do a cart lunch. >> the thing is, i think you're highlighting a critical

component, the debate within the fed, which is if inflation comes are from supply shocks then the one instrument the fed has, which is to reduce demand for interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, that's not the right answer now we got to back up and say how much of this inflation is indeed coming from supply shocks i think probably more maybe than michael thinks, but the whole premise of the question of, well, what could the biden administration or washington do if we had a recession is forgetting the key point that steve brought up there in his segment, which is it matters tremendously whether the fed, which is the -- where the rubber hits the road, if the fed is trying to oppose and counterbalance whatever's coming from washington, there's nothing washington can do. washington can try to pass a

stimulus, but if the fed is going to keep raising the interest rate, we would rediscover how more than two-thirds of the recessions in the u.s. have come from the fed raising an interest rate faster than the economy can handle. >> no way to run a country, michaels or run an economy when that's your only tool is to sort of do the opposite of what we're always trying to do. that is, you know, get high gdp, low unemployment, and to try to do the opposite to, you know, to counter inflation when you're not even sure that it's going to be effective you're not even sure where the inflation is coming from, whether it's systemic, you're not sure how long it's going to be around, and yet, that's your only tool. >> it's a challenging situation, joe. just very quickly, i don't want to make you sad. i do want to tell you that austan and i and a few others had dinner last week i'll leave that there for you to think about. >> virtually like a zoom dinner >> we were physically together. >> you weren't back here,

austan, don't tell me that. >> no, it was in washington, d.c. >> we were here on the swap. >> i was down in d.c. a couple of weeks ago too, and didn't hear a peep from any of you. >> give me a call, email me anytime, i'll be happy to have dinner with you. >> give me one of those fake phone numbers. >> 867-5309. >> it's a challenging situation because the fed was so behind the ball in 2021, it's a challenging situation because the biden administration dumped so much stimulus into the economy and pushed demand so hard in 2021, that now we're in a situation where the fed has to tighten into a slowdown, which kind of scrambles the way we normally think about monetary policy what could the administration do one thing the administration can do is pick some of the low hanging fruit that would shave a few tenths of a point off of inflation to try and make the fed's job a little easier. the administration could get rid

of the trump administration's tariffs on chinese imports that would reduce inflation. the administration could restart student loan payments, which would have some effect on kind of cooling consumer demand, pulling some of that money out of the economy both of those actions would reduce inflation i think a criticism is, you know, maybe, you know, 3/10 of a point here, 1/10 of a point there. if you do a few of those things, all of a sudden you're reducing inflation by half a percentage point, 7/10 of a percentage point. that makes the fed's job easier, and i think that's a good place for the administration to look >> hey, austan, i know i can ask you anything, that's why i'm going to ask this next question. if we go back, so we used to have -- >> oh, boy. >> we used to have republicans, trump -- president trump would have just said something, and they're like thinking i don't want to go on tv i do not want to be asked about what this guy just said, and i

could see that are you in a similar type position right now, austan, when you see some of those economic tweets from president biden being a trained economist at the university of chicago and you see, you know, that all this inflation is from profiteering and oil companies are controlling the price of oil do you think i'm not going on tv because i cannot defend this lunacy do you ever feel that way? >> i thought i just wasn't being invited by you anymore, you were mad at me or something. >> don't change the subject. >> you saw the journal yesterday, i mean, biden omics nowhere that taught anywhere in the universe. >> you know that i will tell it like it is, and so when the administration says things i disagree with. >> you must be telling that a lot then because they're saying crazy stuff. he says crazy stuff, does he not? >> some of his stuff is not -- not what i would say definitely. on some of these like in the

little tweet storm that jeff bezos declared with them, i think what he was observing was this weird dynamic that the price of oil and the price of gasoline which normally move pretty closely together have diverged where the price of oil started coming down but the price of gasoline hasn't come down, and he's expressing frustration with that. >> do you get calls, austan? you could do wonders in this white house. who do you think is coming up with some of this stuff? do you talk to people there still? >> i talk to people there, i think, you know, we're going into the midterm, so we're in the dynamic. you saw this in the trump administration, you saw it with obama, you saw it with bush before that. as you go into the midterm and especially when there's big tectonic forces moving around in the economy that are not popular like, you know, big inflation and stuff like that, and there's

not a whole lot you can do in the short run. i kind of think on both sides you're going to see a little more show voting they're going to try to put up votes to make the other side look unpopular >> i understand and populism, we got a -- you know, we're affected on both sides by t things, and michael, that makes people say things for effect rather than to back it up with facts. michael, do you ever get irritated that we hear that capitalism itself is the problem? because you're trying to earn profit, and we should all be not for profit, and whatever our input costs are, just don't add anything onto that, and just try to sell it at cost so that there's no inflation that's never going to happen >> yeah, i mean, you know, i think attacking companies and accusing them of profiteering, i think trying to use the bully pulpit, you know, demanding that private sector companies lower their prices, this is stuff that we saw from president trump. it's disappointing to see it

from president biden i don't think that it sells. the american people see prices going up everywhere. when they go into the grocery store to buy food, they see really large increases in the price of staples that they need to feed their families, yelling and screaming at gasoline companies i think is not an effective way to address the problem or even to sell that the administration is doing things the administration should be trying to do things, and they have some -- they have some low hanging fruit they could pick. >> seriously, austan, either d.c. or here i'm going to put it on a credit card i'm not going to worry about whether i have it right now, and i will max that out, and we'll -- you know, we'll go to olive garden maybe. >> chipotle is still cheap. >> olive garden or an outback or something. what about a chilies >> i'm okay with that.

>> taco bell cantina >> taco bell i have three meals a day. people know that. >> you get taco bell and a margarita. >> there you go. a virgin margarita, i got to get up early. coming up, jim cramer's first take on the trading day ahead. futures right now positive again from that interview, swear to 'lbeig bk. wel rhtac wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

. let's go down to the new york stock exchange, jim, i'm washing the ten year yield it's like you have to say to investors, go, we're low enough, go buy equities. that what it seemed like yesterday. >> i think so. the theme of almost all of the coverage, i think, has been the reason the rates are down. it is because of a recession i come back and say the reason rates are down is because commodity prices are falling quickly and i feel like you look at the housing stocks and they're the strongest group yesterday nap doesn't say it is a recession. it is that it comes down so much that they won't need to do as many rate hikes. mortgage rates may be peaking. so i take a more bullish side. >> does this give the all-clear

to investors to invest in technology more comfortably in some of the more higher growth names? >> there was a big move yesterday. i think that is a mistake. i think you have to go to companies like meta, google -- micron was not five. amd is now very cheap. i think those work i don't want to go intothose that i don't think have any earnings power because they're the kind of junk that you and i have had to deal with for ages now because cathy wood -- if your stocks repealed their value, it's interesting to me, but they have to make a lot of money and return capital i don'tthink it's micron there is a reason that stock rallied. it's just -- if sanjai is right,

and i think he is, it is four more months of action. so i don't know. i listen to people and say over and over watch out we're in a recession because the ten and 30 year. it's easy to see maybe this recession is not a recession, maybe it is just a victory by the fed, and everybody says the fed is late. it doesn't matter when it does it we'll see friday if we think the final straw is harder to get a job and then you're really home free >> jim, thank you, we'll s yeeou in a few minutes >> thank you

♪ music ♪ ♪ dream, dream when you're feeling blue ♪ ♪ dream, dream ♪ accenture. let there be change.

a little more than half an hour 9 wall street futures right now are pointing to lower futures. we have joined now by the cofounder and cio at defiance. great to have you with us. the great pull back in the area. and we're seeing climbers of that happen today. do you think if the yields r

remain lower, is that the all clear for investors? >> i think it is a great point i look at what happened yesterday. it feels like it was amazon prime day for the nasdaq a lot of bargain shopping on the big tech names it feels like the market did a lot of work for the fed. i think we priced in a good amount of recession. it is the worst first half ever, the s&p is close, and i think investors are starting to feel that going into the market at this stage is not necessarily catching a falling knife it is probably a reasonable time to scoop up quality tech names at a reasonable price. you saw that play out yesterday. what will be interesting is earnings season. that will tell us do we keep

slightly bumping upward week by week here or do we have another draw down coming down? and i think that will be pretty telling. the second half of the year when a lot of these issues like commodity prices falling, i think we're bound to see a rebound in the nasdaq in particular >> you almost don't want it to keep bumping higher. the stocks arising ahead oaf potentially lower forecasts which many people are expecting. we're seeing bank stocks hit new lows how do you peace this all together if they're more inclined to go to growth stocks, they seem to be different stories is. >> yeah, that has been the story

of the year. we have seen indiscriminant selling. when bonds and fixed income are the incomes, we didn't see that this year, right i think it is sort of the same historically, right? a lot of the issues will remain. we'll have ranges across the board. when you have this thought that the market did the work for the fed and they won't do rate hikes as often, perhaps that doesn't help banks out maybe in the near term you see volatility but overall, i do think that it is, in general, it is a good time to start diversifying those portfolios looking at the names that have been killed. putting on defensive names, longer term, you know, this is essentially going to play out. these are great opportunities almost across all sectors i would say. >> silvia, thank you >> thank you

>> final check of the markets. the futures have been just all over but this a tight band. right now we're looking at the s&p and the dow. the nasdaq looking to open slightly higher. >> tomorrow it will be even higher >> first there is denial, then anger, and finally resignation a 3:30 wakeup again for you tomorrow >> i'll see you later on "fast." "squawk on the street" starts now. >> good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." premarket is trying to get steady so are commodities and yields. the long bond is below three for the first time since may we begin with oil coming back above 100 as recession fears and supply concern