the futures have been just all over but this a tight band. right now we're looking at the s&p and the dow. the nasdaq looking to open slightly higher. >> tomorrow it will be even higher >> first there is denial, then anger, and finally resignation a 3:30 wakeup again for you tomorrow >> i'll see you later on "fast." "squawk on the street" starts now. >> good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." premarket is trying to get steady so are commodities and yields. the long bond is below three for the first time since may we begin with oil coming back above 100 as recession fears and supply concerns fuel further

price negotiations it is still down nearly 6% this year and another major crypto player is playing. >> gjim as we said oil is back above 100. the second biggest dollar firm >> we a had an analyst calling for the crash in oil do we suddenly have no demand? the opposite so i don't buy that at all but i do see that it might go, and that is why they refuse to start drilling more. as opposed to being able to do

with what the president wants. so david, here is what i think, i think we're seeing a great unwind for speculation no one is talking about this i think the reason that interest rates continue to go down is not because of a rerecess -- recession, but a collapse. the mortgage operations are very weak it may be possible that we're seeing the beginning of something good, not for all stocks, because i think the blocks move was a big one, but lamar is bottling here >> you hit a lot of things and that is an interesting thesis. i want to start on energy. it has not been one trade that has consistently worked through the year, even energy at this point.

>> you're dead right >> we should start there, you went through a lot of things including very importantly housing. the hedge funds can't seem to get anything right they may have been short something on the bond side, or hoping for higher rates against it and long some commodities and now they're getting crushed again. nothing, now a lot of it may be positioning, but again, it goes back to the theme that even energy has not been a safe place for -- it has been a great place to be. but the last shoe of this creation we have here, is the exxon mobile setting a new record in free cashflow and no one cares. >> right, we got that news on friday -- >> but the stock has been going down because of the commodity going down >> but commodities are crashes and everyone is saying that it

must be a recession. the commodity has gotten other inflated everything got over inflated and over earned. >> it is one of the great examples if is just shut down. they told us they're trying to shut down. >> no one notices this china went to a vaccine strategy >> well, that is what we have been waiting for it's no longer just don't go anywhere, we'll stop covid >> goldman, of course, as we said yesterday sticking with 140, a big note last night arguing that yesterday was about a strong dollar and lower interest, and weak volume, and that structurally the supply equation will rear it's ugly head again >> is the president going to empty the petroleum reserve. but that is back to where we were >> no, but the russians went --

>> prior to the pandemic >> the russians found a way to get their oil to the market. >> that is one of the things we were surprised by. we thought the sanctions would really sir tail them >> that is a error in his overall -- >> they didn't account for india and china. >> they thought india would side with the west. >> but shutting down some million barrels a day due to environmental concerns the cascades europe is trying to figure out their plan here. they will see how bad it gets, but it is bad going to worse that is what else they need. >> because you accelerate. there is a company that makes one of many, west barrel does it too, but there are boated floating lng tankers that you

can fill, and as you need natural gas you pick them. this is one of the few companies they came public that was -- >> and so all of these, a crack down on all of these coming to the -- >> it happened already >> it is happening is it going to be enough for all of the economies and all of the companies to keep going? >> i don't know about the town they, if you look, accelerate energy, then you will -- for once, i'll show you that, when you look at the accelerated engine, it is this kind of mechanism and they're all being released, and as natural gas coming down they have enough to keep pumping the russians do not have their

grip on the jugular of the west any more >> that's a big deal if it true. i'm not saying you're making it up, but it is new to me, there is a great deal of concern about the economy and -- >> there is a series of books. look at "accelerate energy." >> we saw the stock. >> okay, but see this is something that i'm right on and i would like you to acknowledge that see, carl, i say these things i think he thinks you know what? he thinks i'm the stephen king -- >> from liprolific and what -- >> hundreds and thousands of pages of fiction >> by the way, a great success >> of all of the king books you

name -- >> i love "kujo. he is not able to say the assassination. but the best, of course, is the one based on, what covid was based on >> your point about the recession, jim, was echoed by j.p. morgan right now, they said it is inconceivable for a labor market that has generated close to 500,000 average monthly gains in the past six months they also say 40% chance of a supply shox ick inflation in th back half. >> yeah, and new york, they need to just stay -- the sales are down 30% that is classic. that is a bubble, a real estate cycle, always starts with

decline and the number, and the price, and people realize wait a second i better get out i better get a good exdpit exitd then the price comes down. >> i mentioned housing because it may be a negative, not a positive >> the pe for four and five, okay, that means if you're -- one of the things that bothers me is that everyone decided that they are barnum and bailey and powell commodities coming down. the 30 year may break. we may not have to raise -- it may be a break even point. and yet everybody comes on the three year, the 3.1, look, genius move. i took it out of one of sam's tremendous -- >> good for you. >> make sure you keep your money. >> it is listed, i don't know we'll get to this later, but this is the bank that keeps

filing for a wager but you don't have a problem with the long bond short commodity play book right now? >> no, i think commodities are falling a great deal but what is the demand there are some, my coffee cup guy, this is very granular, there is prelenty of propane it is coming down. >> by the way, is marathon then going up that has come down -- >> they will have an unbelievable quarter and a lot of people feel like if they have an unbelievable quarter president bide listen call for a windfall refinery tax to be able to get the midterm elections. people are really worried about political risk look at that

that is a chart of political risk >> yeah, yeah, no that is -- that was working and working and working and then it stopped working. that is why our viewers tune in, cutting edge insight >> you really -- i think we can stop the show right now. >> take a look, everything thought oil -- i said i think oil can still come down because someone, i believe, is trapped in the oils. some hedge fund, right >> i think there is a lot of pain, i was saying this earlier, in terms of trade, yes the energy trade and things associated with it i was hearing that this morning, i don't knee it really -- >> that is joe demaggio.

there is a record that may never be broken. >> did you know that he had another 30 years -- no one cares. >> pete rose was very upset. >> made a lot of money on that >> i want to go back to stocks for a second okay, i want to go back to your exxon report >> my documentary? >> yes, today is the last chance to watch it for free on youtube. it will move to peacock. we have a little extra we had to cut, unfortunately >> are you drowning in that tech verse? >> out takes >> no, it ended very abruptly. we have a better ending, more back and forths -- >> can i, just now >> if you liked the first one

you'll love the second. >> can i be substantive? i look at your documentary and i think of two things. a company in crisis, and they're trying to figure out how much money to drill -- >> crisis seems to be the wrong word for a company making $18 billion. >> transition. but the fact is they have to find oil in places that -- that comes back to the supply one of the reasons i like the first half of that analysis of why oil will not fall big is exxon mobile is spending a fortune to find oil and they're going to places that other companies passed up on >> yes, for one reason or another, exxon always operated in very dicey parts of the world. and they have been all over the place. and not in the most stable governments, not to mention russia >> my point, not just to promote

your doc, it's hard for me to believe that oil will plummet. most of the independence in our country, these majors are looking for oil everywhere there was a norwegian strike called off and russia is n flooding the world, but i don't think that oil will go back to 68 >> as goldman said, it is really about the demand of the refined product. >> yes >> see, you know what just crossed my desk here cnbc to move mad money with jim cramer to the new york stock exchange >> thank you, that's very nice after 18 years >> brand new studio. >> is it ready >> this is a very big day for me 18 -- i love that scene. the 18th year.

it is a big deal for me. i'm coming home. i have been here since 1981, and -- full-time, and i'm very excited. >> gorgeous set. you have a slew of new technology >> i never want to go home i'm going to take a cot and just sleep here you will be seeing me even see at halftime. >> all of the time >> i'm thrilled to be here i'm not kidding, it's a big deal, i'm very excited thank you for pointing that out. >> i'm very excited. >> it looks beautiful. >> i am excited. and it will be great i wish my dad were here. >> i do, too he would love it >> he would be like, jim, to my sister, do you see how big jimmy is, he is big. and my sister takes care of pop

and she's like yeah, he's real great. we'll take a look at futures here, a lot of calls to get to here today including google, rocket, we'll talk about that, double digit number. more "squawk on the street" in a minute of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. lemons, lemons,

lemons. the world is so full of lemons. when you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those lemons, for less. there's a reason comcast business powers

more businesses than any other provider. actually, there's a few... comcast business offers the fastest, reliable network... the protection of securityedge™ and the most reliable 5g network. want me to keep going? i can... whether your small business is starting or growing, you need comcast business. technology solutions that put you ahead. get a great offer on internet and security, now with more speed and more bandwidth. plus find out how to get up to a $650 prepaid card with a qualifying bundle. more pain in the world of crypto they said we strongly believe in

the future of the industry, but the long volatility and the default of three arrows capital -- >> yeah, the bankruptcy filing, from the southern district, and they list alameda research for $75 million. as a creditor, but when you go over a filing from earlier in june there was a 200 million credit facility, and it is made up of actual dollars mus a stable point, but then plus 15,000 bit co bitcoin at the moment. maybe we have to pursue a number in the filing, but they pay something back we don't know, if sam friedman

is out 500 million, that is a real number. >> he doesn't seem that worried, sam. >> no, he seems very confident, but if you have a haircut and a tie, would you be worried? here is what i think is very interesting. this three arrows is beginning to feel very long-term capital like >> it is a dip >> yeah, but i'm saying how many are we into in not that the chairman of the federal reserve called all of the big houses to get together to the federal reserve in new york. every time i see three arrows again and again and again, i say to myself i want to know how much had three arrows money. let's get it done. let's get the crypto winter over but right now they're propping it at 20,000 praying that others will come in, and keep the here. and right now, this 20,000 is

really very much braveheart, david. >> mel gibson? >> yeah, remember the -- >> yes, hold the line. >> i said cultural references are leaving him cold tonight he hosted jeopardy, and i'm throwing cultural references at you and you're just lobbing them back to me strangers on a train, mike >> i get most of them, just for a minute i didn't get the hold now i -- >> i'm saying -- >> geography for 600 instead >> i'm terrible with geography >> remember bronzky. the guy that -- how about. >> what is your favorite cat category >> literature.

i got crushed in geography >> "wi nnnie the pooh. >> when you come at me and don't know what i'm talking about -- i'm going to resolve this. >> you'll still have a chance with the mad dash in a moment. >> what's his name william what >> winnie. >> no, mel gibson's character. we all know this equation, right? he'd crunched numbers day and night. that's it. to maximize profitability. morning. i have quarterly numbers that are beautiful. and forecast revenue from every corner of your organization. is that important? or you could use workday. the finance hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. for a solve problems like a genius world. workday. for a changing world.

♪ ♪ this is the moment. for a brand new treatment for moderate-to-severe eczema. cibinqo - now fda approved 100% steroid free not an injection, cibinqo is a once-daily pill for adults who didn't respond to previous treatments. and cibinqo provides clearer skin and helps relieve itch. cibinqo can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. before and during treatment, your doctor should check for infections and do blood tests. tell your doctor if you've had hepatitis b or c, have flu-like symptoms, or are prone to infections. do not take with medicines that prevent blood clots. serious, sometimes fatal infections, lymphoma, lung, skin and other cancers, serious heart-related events, and blood clots can happen. people 50 and older with heart disease risk factors have an increased risk of serious heart-related events or death with jak inhibitors. this is the moment. but we've only just begun. a new innovation from pfizer. speak with your doctor about cibinqo today.

this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. keep your eye on some of the gainers going into the open.

altria, the fda sustaining that ban of juul products wti, it has been just five minutes.

your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire.

i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

okay, a little more than two minutes for we do a "mad dash" here and you want to talk about steel? >> yeah, morgan stanley cut nucourt and say steel prices are falling faster than they thought. if you're j. powell watching us, he is saying what is it with those guys look at the collapse of all of these different commodities. and all i had to do was a couple rate boosts and say i would get covered. he is saying it right now. he is saying how come when i was

doing that they were dumping on me i think it is a clear victory for the fed sheet. >> and not a sign of a coming recession? >> there is was a bubble amazon built a huge number of warehouses >> distribution centers. >> and now they are -- >> the biggest use of steel. >> amazon also hired a million, does that mean we're going to give back some >> i think it is no u longer, it is now the west. everything is coin based

>> the point is if there is an offer to start in november, they may want to check and see what it is. >> that's it and then it was business school, now it is computer science perhaps you want to be thinking about another career >> oh, yeah? well now metal was just consuming engineers. bringing the price up, now the engineers are going to be saying look -- >> they can become a lawyer because of that. software engineering, i think it has a future >> i'm saying that the epicenter of the layoffs in this particular moment will be the best it is amazing. they are other hiring.

and the idea that they're moving their -- some of these guys are moving their headquarters and because of work from home, they can put their headquarters anywhere once you put to to where you can't cross the street for a higher price, you can't job hop, that will leave to a peak in wage growth. your hair looks great -- >> the vanity of this man. i can fix my hair, sorry, while i listen to you. >> in the last five days a, and what do i get, mr. sartori >> i want to look good while i'm listening to you >> i think it is an interesting thought. >> you never came back the same from your west coast trip, that was true

>> you were traumatized. >> i was >> and if there is a pivot, we get wallard and bullard tomorrow >> i think bullard may be able to say you know what let's do 100 and done. that is what i'm looking for i'm doing x. maybe 75, maybe 50, and done let's see what happens i think there will be, i know this is sounding strange, but we're going to see it tick up in unemployment i really believe that. i think a lot of places learned to do more with less and i think that, david, there are two -- >> negative economic growth. commodities clollapsing, and unemployment rising, but not a recession? >> no, it can be something in between. i'm not saying we're going to have massive unemployment, and we're not -- >> no, we're not

>> we're not going to have inflation the way we have had. inflation is coming down >> a lot of thesis this morning. a number of them >> there is this shocking thing. it's called a job and i'm paid to do it and i work i know, nevermind, i'll just do what you do, just a second fix your hair on camera. >> brutal. >> you are coming hard at me today. >> to your broader point, energy is the only sector coming down today. >> there is still people trying to get out and there was that guy who was talking about like a $56 price that is scaring everybody. in the case of our recession, that is exactly what he is saying >> all right, he is pretty

gloomy by the way i have confirmed that there is no doubt that case is still covering apple she say it's is a big promotion. she will be running research, but she is still covering apple. >> yes that was the e-mail i got. doing both >>. >> e she is unbelievably good, have you ever spoken to her? >> i'm not sure. >> there are some people you should know and sonos was the one that got too late, and she likes sonos. i thought they were a great

idea i thought spotify was a great idea they overearned in the pandemic. >> rocket is overweight, they were dead right that this was going to be compressed and you can say they're declaring victory or recognizing that the multiple is so low and there is a uptick. >> people are clearly doing that and ths interesting on a day when we just mentioned it. >> i have been receptive all morning long of things you have been saying, okay? i'm just not a cheerleading section. >> boom. >> you want to talk about

rivian they are up more than 8% they are down 72% for the year they had a $100 billion market value, but it is up nicely because they're on track to deliver the 25,000 vehicles they shade they would previously. and they delivered 4401 from their manufacturing facility in normal, illinois for the quarter ending june 30th, and produced 4401, delivered 4467 in that period >> you know, phil lebeau, i don't know why we're so convinced that jim farley cannot deliver on his promise at e.v. at ford. i don't get that i think he will surprise the upside

i think he absolutely has. there is no doubt about it the supply chain is better than people realize he has tremendous order growth, and people just systematically denigrated i don't know why that is >> i don't know either i like it all of the way up. we sold some, the absolute top, for the, you know, make some mistakes, no doubt about it, but we sold some of the absolute top, and we're waiting to buy it back, farley had a big win this weekend in a road race >> gm and ford are down the same amount for the year by the way >> on saturday and sunday he raced in lemans. he came in 2nd place that is -- what he says is 2nd place is dead last

ford not willing to pull the tr trigger yet, but ford, we have to buy back that stock >> even with u.s. sales running lighter than we thought? >> look, we know that everything is reflecting a recession. how about if he delivers on the f 150. how about if he dehe just got out of one more bad european delegation -- is. >> speaking of consumer spending, we have this story with amazon, taking a 2% stake in grub hub. not helped by some bearish commentary >> they're down 9% they were up a lot yesterday

i get that i will share the app >> what did you do >> i did mark lauries thing, an the truck is such a better deal, because they were losing money on every meal. >> amazon is losing money on everything they send i think fed ex is a buy here >> still waiting on that, there may still be a third director by the way. >> but amazon, doesthis not give them an opportunity to raise the price of prime now that you to -- >> by offering this service? it and it will come as part of it you won't pay your delivery fee? >> i think it is important remember amazon had a real -- he

was on last weak talking about how great they're doing, they're doing very well. >> google, microsoft, amazon, they are now sweeping 75% of the market for the larger cloud up from 50 something not that long ago. >> but did you see the note for piper. half of the normal rate, and that including the subverticals? if that is the case, we never really had it slow down dramatically and that is what a lot of people are saying this full sell off -- >> last week it was the j.p. morgan call. then you had barclays yesterday. and google. >> they are up $90

and there is no substance. look, why should we not have all of these people? that is what they do goldman, everybody had billions of dollars last year on the meta verse. it is still, and it does take a lot of software engineers to create the meta verse. >> have you seen the tiktok -- i told you, pass tiktok by the end of this year >> yes, that's what b of a said by the end of the year >> they're copying me and they're paying millions and i slay -- >> when that happens, people will suddenly realize the value in meta stock? >> sure. >> as they continue to spend billions on building the meta

verse. >> they're not spends as much as you think. >> they're not >> no, they're not >> and it is -- we talked about 90% of your interview. they don't need those people, they're doing nothing. and they're going. so they're -- >> so they're just -- >> the best will survive >> it's not hunger games, but meta is a buy. quest is still $300. >> a premium headset >> yeah, just making sure people didn't think you were talking about the diagnostics company. >> quest >> isn't that lab corp >> that was very good. >> sofi is up a penny. >> that was a beautiful stock,

wasn't it? >> you watch tv, and i just turned around and looked back. i think this should be your new set. >> we'll hear from her later on again. a quick reminder, you can always get in on the cnbc investing club with jim. just point for phone at the qr code on the cascreen, it will te you there. before we go to break, the bond report, we got data on the way final pmi. jolts, ten minutes, all on deck with the ten year below 280.

space. the boundary of human achievement. the new frontier. ♪♪ eh. ♪♪ it's not time to escape. it's time to engage. it's time to plant more trees. hoo! ♪♪ time to build more trust.

time to make more space for all of us. so while the others look to the metaverse and mars, let's stay here and restore ours. yeah, it's time to blaze our trail. 'cause the new frontier? it ain't rocket science. ♪♪ it's right here. ♪♪

u.s. service tmi hit the

tape a few minutes ago coming in at 52.7, they were looking for 51.5 we're getting used to seeing new orders being contractionary. >> i continue to think that we're going to slow down president the banks are saying it is a slow down. their stocks are going down, their rates are supposed to be higher, and that is because people fear lower amounts. today we have a counter rally in some of the drugs and consumer packaged goods that says it is a recession. i remain positive with the idea that inflation is under control and we get slightly less job growth and i think that the fed is one and done, and one and done is the theme here we don't know what it is, but

bullard is very smart. i'm going with what he says. >> let's take a look at shares of netflix, guys we have not hit this bar cclays lowering their price target. the q 2 growth may be weak despite strong content you may have seen some of the numbers on "stranger things. based on what they call their triangulation methodologimethod, they're using them to estimate quarterly trends and they could be losing 2.8 million subs we talked to a great deal when they reported that awful quarter how they lost track of their own business so maybe they should be using the triangulation methodology. >> you're seeing the stock being

pummelled again. and i think that is what the contrast is for and those numbers are shocking for me. >> it has been a mass hit. >> right >> an enormous amount of time. as soon as i saw that, all people are going to think about is disney plus being caught up in the same triangulation. >> a different price point though >> i know, i think that disney is doing better. netflix theme parks are just -- you can't get anyone to go to them >> you literally can't by a ticket >> the "squid game" ride is not good for your kids i don't want to be on that >> not even in the metaverse do i want to go -- >> the metaverse could still be hiring, just the right people. >> what is stopping disney from

getting to 92? >> i could have been wrong, but i really just -- >> how deep are they >> how deep are they >> very deep that's how wrong i have been bob like "sea hunt." >> he's at sun valley as well and zaslov gives us sound. >> hbo being a key of that strategy. >> when i hunt, it's with a shotgun. it's very effective. what do you hunt with? >> i don't hunt, but with a bow and arrow. i like to creep up from deer and get them from behind i'm very quick. >> cruel i think they should call it sunset valley.

i feel bad i'm pretty down. how about you? i mean, that's all great they all pretend, oh, chin up? disney, i want to know, is bob chapek as done's the shareholders >> you have to stick with your strategy. >> and, what, be happy >> no, believe in what you've laid out and execute >> really? >> yeah. >> what are they serving you what's the drink of choice out there? >> you don't get the historical reference, 1978. >> what's the drink of choice? >> i'm not getting it. >> kool-aid. >> i thought maybe a gimlet. >> beefeater is making a comeback, enough with the tanqueray. >> how is mezcal doing

>> i'm shorting bombay sapphire here i'm putting it out who is run the halftime today? >> i am. >> do you see any unusual activity >> the in a najarians are not g me. >> they're not >> no. >> can't look at the set, can't look at the beautiful "mad money" set to my left here. >> sun valley, can you imagine what it's like out there it's now just past the suntan lotion. >> how bad was the down round? >> why don't you klarna yourlfse we'll get jim as stop in a moment don't go away.

do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to

supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities.

i am trying to put a new word in our lexicon, and that is klarna and who was the buyer at 46 >> softbank put in money at that valuation at 46, now you have i think tiger and sequoia at

6 1/2, still. >> can we have the same cast as we did for we crash? >> you're referring to an enormous crash of wework. >> yes, and we're all trying to find out a bit more about how that industry is, and it's been oblix rated. block, paypal, affirm. i know who doesn't have it jamie dimon. he also would not take my ethereum when i begged him jpmorgan said, no. >> apple is dabbling >> they're -- >> i think apple has the balance sheet to put it off. >> i'm going with kd

>> the problem with apple is the gaming part of the apple app is down big. what's on mad tonight? >> talking about my news set >> nice. >> right down here where i can sleep in a sleeping bag and i never have to leave whenever my wife is angry. >> get a tour of it some point >> maybe, if you're nice to me. >> right now, you can't look >> we'll see you tonight >> marianne, keep your eyes

shut >> we'll see you tonight "mad money." >> thank you. crude yitrng

good wednesday morning, welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber. morgan brennan is on maternity leave. some action in equities, those energy continues to lose some ground big macco day of data with pmi, ism services and jolts >> let's give you a look uber and doordash are both under pressure, following news that amazon is buying a small stake in grubhub, and more importantly, maybe offer one-year service to prime members. the fda has temporarily suspended the ban on juul products coinbase is getting downgraded to neutral.

head been overwater. atlantic is citing a numb are of questions abincluding how the company is able to attract talent some key economic data out the pmi for june, 55.3, compared to consensus of 54.9 jolts, 11.3 million job openings at the end of may. ahead today is the fed minutes at 2:00 p.m. eastern sometime. steve liesman is rounding up some of this is figures and internals. >> i'm just poring over this data there's definitely been a slowing that's picked up in the service sector this could be because of what's happening in the real estate

market the real estate industry is a big part of the industry at the same time, aspects are coming back with travel portion, going out to restaurants, haircuts, the whole resurgence of story from the pandemic is coming back. i will at the you the employment index is in contraction territory. 47.4, it hasn't been this low. you've got to go back to -- august of 2020 to find another time when it was contracting at the same time, 55 is still a positive number, so what we learned this morning, when we put together the service sector data, is that there's still a lot ofoff openings service sector is still expanding at a slower rate, so not quite sure, carl, that you can peg there's a recession, at least right now, given a strong job market and decent service

sector, which is the most substantial part of the economy. while that's happened, more than 80 basis points of fed tightening has come out of the market and the fed is going to respond later next year by cutting rates shortly. just tree weeks ago, the futures market peaked at 408, the weak are economy data, they prompted a repricing to 227, or what is the number 224 in april of 2023 another 170 basis points, or 1 mountain 7 percentages appoints of tightening expected over the next eight months. if you look at the end of the chart there, guys, 270 means the fed ends up cutting quite a bit at the back half of the year, carl, guys >> yes, steve, we had this early, so many cross-occurrence

as well as just trying to figure out the stock market new mortgage applications down shatterly. commodity prices -- i don't know if collapsing is the right word, but down sharply yet, as you point out, joblessness does not seem to be a key issue at this point. >> david, i have a hard time there's going to be a recession with the unemployment rate plus still looking for 250,000 jobs to be created, weak for the stretch we've been through, but pretty strong for normal times i don't know if we're ready to say they are normal times, but if we're doing that kind of job growth, it's hard for the mbr to say a recession has started now, because it uses job payroll declines, or payroll weakening to date the beginning of a recession. it's going to be hard to do with that kind of strong job growth, and, again, a service sector

you're right there are strong cross-currents. you hear one side of the story, but not the other. >> "inconceivable" is what they used last night. barclays head of u.s. strategy manesh, and -- just bouncing off the data, a nine-month low, employment 47,4, you have to go back to covid how does that affect the potential recessionary dynamic >> as the previous speaker said, right now there are very few signs of the recession coming in the only question is the consumer confidence is very, very low right now that tends to feed on itself, so it is possible we could get a recessionary and still -- at the end of the year. >> brian, i'll give you a shot

at that as well, especially with claims on deck tomorrow and a very important jobs number friday. >> it's clear that the economy is slowing here, but that's all part of this process that will play out as the economy is slowing, commodity prices are down, and very critically expectations are down the risks to the cycle is still very elevated. we now how cycling, tightening and inverted yield curve so the risks are still elevated, but we're starting to see progress we need to see. commodities off. so if we're going to navigate this narrow path to a soft landing, this is the process that we need to see play out >> for how much longer do we need it to play out? when would you get even more confident of that soft landing >> well, typically what you see, you know, the equity markets tend to respond when inflation

on a year-over-year percent change has peaked, and started to come down, you get a bit more certainly on the policy front. to ease investors perhaps a bit, if you look at the average peak-to-trough returns, it's negative 31% so the s&p 500 peak-to-trough was, what was the worst, 24% a lot of that is the valuation adjustment the question is, what type of hit to earnings do we get in an economic slowdown? but, again, inflationary pressures seem to be moderating. that should help to give the fed some comfort to ease a bit off their tightening stand i would think the markets would start to find a better footing, as we move through this year into the fall. >> maneesh, do you go along with that if we continue to get moderation in inflation and manage to skate

through earnings season with decent guidance, what does that mean for q3 at least >> i think there's two different questions here one is the recession fear the. what i think the market is not pricing in is stagflation. what happens if inflation still staying elevated that could be a nasty environment to be in, and this hope that the fed will actually cut, if growth slows, might be unfounded. >> is that your base case? >> no, it's not, but it is something to worry about one of the other things to highlight, even if you do see a soft landing, there are a few other factors which i think could late to weakness in equities number one is the fact that the

valuation -- we have more room to go. this is purely because of where we are back in the '70s we have single digits, and we're in the mid to high single digits here you could have a situation where corporate profits starred to decline, because the goods consumption starts to drop what we have seen is -- the fact that companies are begs that what was so last year, but here is the pivot, and that's the big headwind to earnings also. the third thing i would say, you know, you're focusing a lot 06 u.s. here, but china, the slowdown is likely to go much worse that what they expect. i think it could be -- and that

has ramifications nonfor companies who are selling into china, but also for the supply chain issues >> brian, one last comment here, exposure to china, exposure to europe, there's currency, it doesn't sound like you are in fair of betting on some of these tech names that got a bounce yesterday on lower yields. >> actually, i wouldn't say that, in a slowdown phase of a cycle, you would tend to be the growthier parts of the market perform well we've been in an environment where the economy had been expanding, rates were going up that was better for the more value-oriented parts of the market investors are likely to look back towards quality growth businesses that can outperform in a slow economic environment in the case of decline, the markets have largely priced in

the weak economic activity as a result of zero covid what you have now is some hope you'll see greater opening of the make cities in china, as well as different from what unfortunate in the western world. in china you'll have policy easen. for investors it's about better or worse i have to think that things are going to start to get better in china, relative to expectations. >> brian and maneesh, we appreciate it. see you next time. >> thank you. >> thank you. a road map for the rest of the hours, as sales contract for manhattan apartment, plunging by nearly a third in june. this is bitcoin continues to try to hold on to the 20,000 level. and watching oil, 9773, as the recession fears and supply concerns fuel remo surprise

fluctuation, more "squawk on the street" continues in a moment, don't go away.

every search you make, every click you take, every move you make, every step you take, i'll be watching you. the internet doesn't have to be duckduckgo is a free all in one privacy app with a built in search engine, web browser, one click data clearing and more stop companies like google from watching you, by downloading the app today. duckduckgo: privacy, simplified.

every search you make, every click you take, every move you make, every step you take, i'll be watching you. the internet doesn't have to be duckduckgo is a free all in one privacy app with a built in search engine, web browser, one click data clearing and more stop companies like google from watching you, by downloading the app today. duckduckgo: privacy, simplified. we want to update everybody on the markets we've been talking about a lot of cross-currents. the nasdaq had been weak throughout the session now everything is sort of evening out. we're keeping a close eye on oil. we'll talk about the continued decline in that commodity, along with so many others, after this break.

ev sales are climbing.

our phil lebeau has more good morning, phil. >> good morning, carl. we'll just start with news we received in the last hour. rivian out with its 2q products numbers. they're better than some of the analysts were expecting 4401 evs in the second quarter. most of the estimates were somewhere in the range of 3500 to 4,000 vehicles. that's an increase compared to the first quarter of 72% rivian shares are up more than 10% today alone as it reaffirmed the production guidance of 29 thousands vehicles we are seeing the transition to more people buying ivs in the country. these are initial numbers, not final, but initial -- ev is now almost 6% on the market. a couple years ago it was down

closer to 3% we are seeing people transitioning into evs these are the four primary players when it accounts um to evs in this country. you know the story here. despite the fact we're moving toward more than 2 million evs been to be sold annually, the market has not favored these over the last -- at least the last six or seven months we'll set if that starts to change as we look at the production increases kicking in over the next 12 to 18 months. guys, back to you. >> thank you, phil we are we could week area from cnbc's 15th america's top states for business ranks, this year's battleground, our scott cohn is live in michigan, the heart of the u.s. auto industry, at least for now scott?

>> disit is where the auto industry really got its start when they started mass producing oldsmobiles here back at the turn of the century, but now this industry is going electric. this automotive state find itself with a lot of competition. rivian building a $5 billion context in georgia, hyundai with 5.5 billion, china's vinfast, and ford is spending in kentucky and tennessee. there will be plenty of ev production in michigan as well still, this automotive state finds itself playing catch-up. >> look, michigan has always had

an outsize role in the mobility sector i think there are moments in which you have to raise the level of your game you have to make sure you are communicating in a way that the market understands, that you understand what are the concerns today. >> and part of raising the game here in michigan has a billion dollar incents ink package that would be offered to gm, as i said fort will be doing more what are the automakers looking for? same things we look for. things light the workforce, infrastructure, cost, and of course the incentives. huge money being thrown at these fees can it stay the automotive capital? that's one of the things we'll have governor whitmer when we talk with her here in lansing,

michigan, later today in "halftime report." >> scott, a lot of it would depend, it would seem, on ford and gm when we talk about tesla, it's nowhere near michigan, and on and on >> that's right. michigan, and as they will point out to you here, and as we see every year in top states, this is really an epicenter of engineering talent, so they feel like their place is somewhat secure, but not as secure as maybe it once was,'s the other states bid for this industry so they really find themselves in competition they like to point to the fact that they really are kind of obsessed with inwithing here if you look at the university of michigan or michigan state here in lansing or east lansing, but it is really some intense competition, what they like about their chances here is the

talent pool. we talk about this all the time, the idea of workforce. this is very much a union state, a uaw state, but that role within business is changing. it's something that companies are not shying away from in the way they once were >> scott, looking forward to the rankings, as we always do. thank you. all right. let's move into oil and energy markets, out of ev oil dipped below $100 a barrel on supply concern issues, and fears of a global recession as well joining us is john kilduff, founding partner and contributor here at our network. john, first your take on where things stand and why you think we have seen this significant dip in the price of late >> just what you referenced, david, it's the global recession

fear that's crept into the calculus for this market, not just here in the u.s. with the atlanta fed, their gdp number now for q2, they released that on friday. that put a scare into the market, and gen and japanese economic data, the euro, the yiny yen, is potentially a drag on demand it makes it more expensive for other countries for japan, which has the effect of diminishing demand as well so that is really what's feeding into the calculation here. we have gotten over the hump, in terms of the peak driving season period it's this week, it's fourth of july, so it should be all downhill from here we're already seeing price relief at the pump i think we were at $4.77 this

morning when i checked it out. partly in my view because of the fiscal spending we've lost we're down a trillion dollars. a lot of money is not going into consumer pockets, they're feeling it that's why i think the calculus has changed over the past several weeks. >> yeah, talked to me a bit about russia as well china and india remain significant markets for russian oil. how does that play into the overall price of the commodity >> well, i think there's been a miscalculation in the market it's been absolutely russian output, russian deliveries, and supply to the countries you just mentioned. china has stepped up big india went from importing zero russian barrels to importing about three quarters of a million barrels a day, and it's growing as of may.

they have stepped in to fill the void that causes an offset for other barrels that were otherwise headed to india, to now have to find a home someplace else we're actually seeing some dislocation, particularly for west african supplies, are sometimes going begging and struggling to find a home. it's a dynamic that the which is board is being reordered but, you know, our taxi to closure russia's supplies to the global market really have fallen on their face. >> do you think putin has some kind of october surprise in his pocket and what's left to go talk about in saudi with biding if we are seat, first of all, never underestimate this madman in russia he could do anything scorched earth i think was

invisibled by russia wheel we can sit here, hold our breath and cross our fin irs, yeah, there's certainly something he -- if the price cash scheme gets implemented, it just won't sell it we'll have to see where that goes as far as the saudiing go, it's an uncomfortable relationship. we need them to signal they're willing to do more if the president can just get that out of them, this would help to calm tit to the step they would show willingness to put additional barrels on the market and allow others to try to come on and supply more, that would help things you can't just trade the fundamentals of this market. there's a lot of psychological

analysis that goes into it, expectations, you know, po tenchialities like we're talking about now. high prices today adopt guarantee high prices more it's always a changing dynamic >> john, so let's talk about tomorrow give me your best guest. do we stay at these levels are we going to revisit the highs? >> well, first of all, the high in early march, initial invasion was 130. i don't think we're getting back to that level. this $is 00 level is a mythical round number that i think the market will stay somewhat attracted to, but as we get deeper into the summer here, yes, we're going to continue to go lower it would be hard to break 92 to 90, but i think the down side is much more likely than a renewed up side, save for a russian october surprise

all right. thanks, john appreciate it. bitcoin holding pretty steady, which cramer talked about. another crypto platform files for bankruptcy this is voyager digital. we'll be rig bk. w u37htac to adapt in a fast changing world, you could hire a professional pit crew. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. for a accelerate your decision-making world. workday. for a changing world.

when you need help it's great to be in sync with customer service. a team of reps who can anticipate the next step genesys technology is changing the way customer service teams anticipate what customers need. because happy customers are music to our ears. genesys,

we're behind every customer smile. president putin may notice focus on seizing the remaining parts of the don bass region only then would it offer a cease-fire, that according to a defense policy analyst since russia attacked ukraine on february 24th, almost 9 million people have left ukraine, seeking safety. british prime minister boris

johnson refusing to step down as more staffers handed in their resignation, totalling 18. johnson said the government would not fold after the resignations in protest of his leadership he says he plans on winning another election. the food & drug administration playing a temporary administrative stay on its order last month, require e-cigarette company juul to pull its products from shelves. it said it submitted insufficient data to demonstrate the products were safety dave and carl, back to you still to come, we are going to talk about the cooling housing market new york city apartment sales fell 30% last month. check out the biggest laggards on the nasdaq 100 this morning, led by many chinese

names there. you so he it right there we're back in three. financial . with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect.

the dow is up 13, pretty choppy action. watching currencies as well, a euro, a fresh two-decade low against the u.s. dollar, as we continue to watch the energy crisis that is pending in that continent. charles delaure, just talking about the remarkable weak we've had. socgen, for example, call the pound unviable >> it's a chaotic environment, no doubt about it. i think we're heading more and more likely toward a recession but obviously there's a lot of uncertainty swirling around. that's completely understandable giving the state of world economy and the uncertainty

facing markets do you feel this is getting overstretched? to what extent do we start talking about mean reversion here >> i think we areal that point, really using a recession is necessarily inev inevitable, but hikely likely at this point i think the reality is the seeds of this environment were planted a few years ago, particularly during 2020 with the strong expansionary fiscal policy of president biden, and with the continued expansionary monetary policy i think that with that backdrop, it was -- it's so likely now that we're going to have to restrain growth sufficiently to contain inflation. for that to happen, i think that interest rates are going to have to rise considerably more. i think we'll find ourselves, as we may already be in a technical

rece recession, but certainly not a severe recession. >> so it sounds like you don't with you a lot of faith in this week's action. you think the fed still has some wood to chop >> oh, absolutely. absolutely of course, the rollover in commodities to a certain extent does reflect the growing awareness in the markets that we may well be on a recessionary trend. i think that's what the markets are telling us, that's what the ten-year is telling us, what the stock market is telling us at the same time, i would certainly acknowledge that the price pressures in the market are going to continue for quite a while. i think the fed is very, very concerned. after procrastinating for quite some time, i think they're determined now to actually stifle inflation that more than likely will lead us into a period of some significant weakness

>> okay, but is it soft landing economic weakness? or is it more serious in i don't think it has tore a seer recession. the relevant question is not so much the severity, but the extent to which it drags on and on i think that's a question we don't have an answer to right now. to me this does have the makings of a potential stagflationary environment. i lived through the stagflationary environment of the '70s i unfortunately am all too familiar with the efforts in those days to contain inflation, which really did not tackle the underlying forces. ers of course that went on for nearly a decade. we've been in that inflationary environment as long this time around i think the fed has a much

better chance this time of containing inflationary expectations, but consumer surveys are already showing that inflationary expectations are drifting now i think this has to be a great concern. as a result of that, i think we're in a potentially risk of a stagflationary environment. >> interesting, but you do acknowledge, unlike the '70s where we had already been through a couple recessions, so entrenched by the time voelker came around, that the 1234r8 banks have gotten religion a lot earlier relative to what happened back then. >> that's particularly true in the case of the fed. i find things in europe and find them much more complicated the icb finds itself in an extraordinarily difficult position they're planning to raise rates, but struggling with the issue of so-called sfwragmentation, which

reflects the underlying structural problems of a euro zone and, unfortunately the markets are focusing somewhat predictably on the italian spreads. i think that the ecb will have a struggle to contain inflation in this environment, particularly given the energy challenges. energy is near a crisis point in germany and in much of europe. it's likely to get worse, because it's my view that sanctioning will need to be tightened further against putin, and the results of that could well by further strain in the energy market. though i believe the ecb is also equally concerned about inflation, i think their path to controlling it is a much more complicated and uncertain path than that of the federal reserve. >> how does that figure in, if it does, to your views

if there was a deep recession in europe, does that impact us, given obviously the sign of the eurozone economy is fairly large? >> it certainly will i think it will be one of the many factors, i think that weighs on our economic growth in the next four to six quarters here i don't want to sound too pessimistic here, but i think we have to be realistic of the challenge that lies ahead. i think that driving us to an expectation will continue to rise we will see further weakness in europe, which, of course, will impact or own exports and our own markets. china is struggling to recover its growth they'll be lucky if they have 3% to 4% growth, which is certainly a far cry from what we thought things would be at the turn of

the year i think it feeds into an economic weakness. balance sheets are strong. you have househow would are also better prepared for a period of economic weakness than they have been in the past unemployment is very low so even some increase in unemployment can be tolerated without consumption collapsing, but we did see a contraction of consumption, a weakening of consumer confidence. i think these are all early signs that we are moving into a period of some technical or more severe recession over the course of the next six months. >> we're going to see how much employment lags, if in fact it does, when it tells us especially on friday, charles. really good insight. always good to chat. thank you. coming up a "techcheck," we'll look at the food delivery wars, as amazon strikes a deal with grubhub, putting some pressure on dash and uber.

oil is approaching 95, lowest intraday since april 7th we're back in a moment

every search you make, every click you take, every move you make,

every step you take, i'll be watching you. the internet doesn't have to be duckduckgo is a free all in one privacy app with a built in search engine, web browser, one click data clearing and more stop companies like google from watching you, by downloading the app today. duckduckgo: privacy, simplified. every search you make, every click you take, every move you make, every step you take, i'll be watching you. the internet doesn't have to be duckduckgo is a free all in one privacy app with a built in search engine, web browser, one click data clearing and more stop companies like google from watching you, by downloading the app today. duckduckgo: privacy, simplified. robert frank has more on the

manhattan sales. >> good morning, carl. more than $8 billion deals were done jumping 11% to an all-time report of $1.3 million, average price rising to over $2 million. most expensive deal of the quarter was a $70 million of an apartment at one of super towers on billionaires' row, but june we saw a big reversal. sales contracts, signed contracts looking forward, that declined 30% now, mortgage rates are not as important in manhattan 53% of the deals in the second quarter were all cash, even higher at the top end. brokers tell me the big issue is the reverse wealth effect from the stock market and crypto. many of the buyers in tech very worried about job losses and cost cuts, but prices are not coming down in manhattan, at least not yesterday and not

broadly. bookers say the attendance at open houses has vanished, buyers are not even making low-ball offers what is helping is rents are crazy high the average rent in manhattan hitting a record $4,000 a month in may we'll see whether prices on the buying side and rental side actually start coming down >> yeah, all those people paying all the that rent, not even going to the office. a weird world. robert, thank you. well, looking beyond housing jumps 19% higher than a year ago, our next guest says, though, that commercial real estate and apartment rentals as well, that remains strong inflation edge investments good to have you with us with you just heard from robert on rentals and recent denchal. give me the take on commercial

of course, i mentioned that people are renting, paying a lot, but they're not going to offices. and we've talked about this in the past, but what are we seeing in the trends? >> good morning. great to be with you on the program. let's focus on housing for a moment. feeds the apartment renl market when you have median home prices rising 46% in the last two years. on top of that interest rates up 150 basis points so far this year think about what that does to housing affordability. the average apartment rent has gone up 22% in the same time period that's a robust number the median payment for a home, mortgage on a home is now $1,000 a month more than the median rent that was about $300 prepandemic. so that gives you the context of how unaffordable for sale housing has become, more demand is being created for apartment

rentals. we're seeing leading markets like phoenix, arizona, home prices went up 55% in the last few years or austin, texas, or charlotte which have similar homeappreciation have seen apartment demand at record levels now, apartment prices as investments, i appreciate low interest rates are helping that through the end of last year we're seeing a little bit of an adjustment in the market where the bid ask spread is an issue because of higher interest rates. when you look at the fundamentals -- now looking beyond apartments and property taxes like shopping centers, for example, hotels, for example, self-storage units, those are all doing extremely well comparatively because there's little or no new construction, there is an inflation edge and a lot of capital is looking to come into commercial real estate because of the fact that it' inflation edge

>> mark son mill chap is the leading in commercial real estate sales i do want to get back to more of the area i assume you also focus on what are we seeing there right now in terms of the ability to fill office parks, office buildings and the like with workers and/or pay for that space. >> great question in terms of the use of office space. that is the lagging property cut. we're not seeing the kind of demand for space and office buildings, of course, because of the fact that the hybrid workplace is here to stay. a lot of our office owner clients are reporting somewhere between 30% to 50% daily occupancies. remember tenants are still paying rent on the space an average of four years left on the leases across the office market around the country. but what happens to those leases when they roll over? we are looking at shrinking

footprint for office space, no doubt about it however, assuming we get through this recession, fear, this period of the economic slowdown that the fed absolutely has each year to fight inflation, on the other side of that, because there's no big fundamental problems with the economy, pretty good job growth and new office demand begin to offset the reduction in footprint because of the hybrid environment. industrial warehouse, another big property type because of e-commerce, even though there's amazon overshot their industrial space usage, that property type is here to stay, also, because of the functional obsolescence of older buildings really not being able to keep up with modern warehouse and distribution needs lastly, other property type was senior housing which was devastated during the pandemic, of course.

that's been another lagger in the recovery >> the times today has an amazing look at suburban office parks, right the classic office campus that we got to know in the 60s and 70s where vacancies are 85%, animals are roaming through the parking lots i wonder how you think that's going to get repurposed? >> we're seeing a lot of repurposing of older shopping centers and older office buildings. the obsolescence of office buildings especially in hur ban america where older what we consider class e or class b office space doesn't have the technology we're seeing reused as residential. on the suburban side, the migration to the suburbs especially in florida, texas, arizona and nevada where there's been an exhilarated amount in migration from other states, we're seeing more office demand

in those suburban markets than previously you can't judge an old book by its cover from an office investment perspective in some ways it's the diamond in the rough. there is a lot of reimagination of commercial real estate happening. the good news is we're not over building the asset class it's a good place to put capital and that's what our clients are telling us they're actually using less debt because interest rates are higher, and putting more of their equity and cash into it. >> hessam, thank you for your time and insights. appreciate it. >> thanks for having me on >> you're welcome. we'll be right back.

do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life

insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. some knew data on short sellers showing investors should be prepared for a market rebound. >> the pace by which investors added net new shorts came down in june, one metric that may indicate either sentiment is improving or simply cashing out on gains made earlier this year. a little more than $20 billion

worth of shorts were added in june, down from $61 billion in may including to s3 partners which looks at data on short interest this may be a sign that short sellers are sensing that a market bottom is near, they write, and they are satisfied seeing their overall short exposure shrink slightly as the market value of their existing short positions decline ah what may be a posable market rally. s3 partners wrote that in a note that's due out later today some of it can be that short sellers are crystallized in the gains from earlier in the year u.s. short selling up more than 29% in mark-to-market gains, compared to nearly 22% declines in the russell 3,000 in june that gap narrowed with mark-to-market gains effectively matching the losses in the broader index. >> among the top most profitable

shorts on a percentage basis in june, we're largely related to crypto, digital payments and clean energy not too surprising, you can see those names there on an absolute dollar basis short sellers in tesla raked out the most profitable in june followed by apple and nvidia. that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street." "techcheck" starts now good wednesday morning i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt and deirdre bosa today the great rebundling continues. what it means for the subscription ecosystem as businesses try to capture consumer demand and rising rates from apple to disney, we'll talk about it finally we'll check in with the ceo of arm on what might be one of the year's biggest ipos. we'll kick off w