with the fed minutes coming up in the aftermath and conversations. >> and finally qualcom on that board. >> you mentioned that semis are starting to peek up a little bit. qualcom hasn't been given its justice for the amount of diversification it's doing in the revenue stream that should change >> it's been a pleasure to be with you that's going to do it for us on "the halftime. "the exchange" starts right now. thank you, david in for kelly evans and here's what's ahead voyager digital filing for bankruptcy is this ripple effect going to take out more players in the crypto industry. prices now at $96 a barrel we're going to look at whether the heat decline may mean prices are there stay and we're an hour away from the

release of the minutes of the latest fed meeting what they were saying as they agreed to hike rates by three quarters of a percent and what clues does that give us to what they might do next dom. >> trat that market might be in a holding pattern, given what we're anticipating to see later on at 2:00 p.m. eastern time the s&p, dow and nasdaq, it's been a fairly tight trading race it's giving you an idea of the context. wore 90 points we're up 122 with points at the high tofz session and down 173 at the low fractional losses across the board. it's the nasdaq out performing and two-ten gts of 1% with are regard to the s&p fiesk 00 one place that 134 traders are keeping a close eye on is energy

big momentum trade last year the reason why some are paying more attention today with a 3% decline in the ticker xle is because $67 and 75 seblts was the level some are watching closely. why? because that was the 200-day average price for this one the 2 o00-day moving average, so to speak it broke below that level today. maybe does that signal more weakness ahead so, keep an eye on the oil and gas stocks in the s&p 500. the stock of the day, i'm going to show you norweej withen cruise lines remember, they're all big gainers in yesterday's session, giving a lot of that back today. norweej withen's got specific company, data and news to report today. they are have elim mated their covid testing requirement for guests aboard their vessel

they'll be subject to local are regulations wherever they may be it's effective august 1st. the travel and leisure stocks. norwegianb, carnival and john, throw of the worst performers so far today. constextualy, real big out performers >> thanks. and a choppy market as investors await the fed minutes at the top of the 2:00 p.m. hour. my next guest calls this the weird withest economy she's ever seen despite the smh tracking for the worst year since 2008. joining us is capital part nr said chief investment officer. and it's that thing in photography where the background is out of focus while the subject is in focus. the whole economy out of focus >> it is what we are is a growth at a reez nblt price firm so, we're always looking at the

drivers for groelkt. you wouldn't get caught in a momentum situation interesting can happen in the markets. we see the economy and it is weird. why some we still have more than full employment or so it team seems. we're going to find out friday and i'm fascinated by the jolts report as well i think all investors need to pay attention to that. to understand i guess you might want to know how much flexibility the fed has in the next rate hike, which we suspect might be 75 basis points >> the street is expecting 75 basis points because of the last round of the fed meeting and the talk after the fed

they were pointing to inflation being their biggest problems they have to solve but they also have to keep employment in mind because that's their other mandate ulemtployment and stable prices. prices are out of wack but i'm not sure the economy could stand a great big jolt like we had in 1982 to try to get things back into focus we use that metaphor and to get the economy back on track. so, what i'm looking for -- because powell was a market participant, unlike so many other fed chairwoman and men whoob were economists. so, if there is talk about shorter term view on how to it assess what to odo next, i hink that would give the markets a lot of comfort that they may not continue ramping up that rate at

aggressive rates anymore so, we'll see. >> maybe you can help me with this might be an elementary question about the labor market the labor force participation rate has been low. the unemtployment rate is low. aren't there people not looking for work but as inflation rises, the economy might start looking for work and so eall the suden the numerator and denominator for the help of the labor market might shift? >> yes and that's something i'm dets prtly looking for. i live in pittsburgh we are not one of the top 25 cities anymore and if we're having labor shortages like businesses are having to close because they can't find people to work the shifts, it's a problem and i am looking for the workers that disappeared during costride

come back. brrs where did the workers go? what are they doing for money? and when are they coming back? i don't think anybody has a great answer for those >> back to technology, which you're betting on and saying you're looking at not necessarily growth stocks but the drivers of growth overall to bet on fundamentally, over the longer term, despite the lack of clarity in the economy right now, what's driving your investment decisions is the expectation that computing goes everywhere? that it becomes a more important put a of the overall economy >> absolutely. what has driven my view as long as i've been in the industry, which is 1999 is technology provides productivity, that's the answer so, with are edeuced shrinking workforce for whatever reason, businesses have to implement technology and i see 5g being able to

actually bring internet of things where you have sensors in-world gathering all sorts of data that will allow companies to be more productive that is going to drive semiconductor use and an explosion of data, with right? you collect the data you have to put it somewhere >> thank you >> thank you meanwhileb, technology sometimes drives more than productivity bitcoin hovers around 20,000 after an all-time high in november the price slowly fell as the fed signalled the return of rate hikes. companies like celsius, pause withdrawals with all the positivity and last week, capital went under now the crypto voyager digital is filing for bankruptcy becoming the latest casualty in the crypto collapse. mckinsey here with the latest. >> so, the voyager digital

bankruptcies is the perfect example of the dreaded contagion effect and looks like all roads trace back to the u.s. tara dll project that imploded in may we know a once very prominent crypto hedge fund had exposure to the project through-arrows, which is known for the highly leveraged trading strategy, started defaulting on loans left and right block buy had its own liquidity issues after that. and defaulted on a $670 million loan to voyager digital, then filed for bankruptcy and since then, culminating in the voyager digital bankruptcy a big part of what's behind the serious liquidity bottle neck is

a law lot of the platforms were offering amazing returns but as crypto prices drop, a lot of people looked to withdraw liquidity from the crypto lenders. now they're saying you know that time of easy yield and decentralized finance? it's over. >> similar to the paunzy structure, where everything seems fine until people want their money out. a lot of the decentralized finance seems awfully centralized. is there a clear sense yet of how many shoes are left to drop? even bitcoin stays where it is >> we have the ultimate stress test which has been failing so far. part of the praoblem is the protocols were with subsidizing the a.p. offerings they thought we'll take a hit

and drum up business they were reinvesting client funds into other things offer aing sky high return its it's just starting, it seems like >> what do you think happens and so much of crypto is based on belief. the bitcoin bull in miami. these exciting conferences about all the future if enough people get burned and think it's not the future, how much is really there >> we're going to see this washout, definitely among crypto lenders. you will have a few come out as other lenders are folding under the pressure but we'll have to see. and it's an optics game. you have to believe in it for it to work. >> it's like the liars loan of 2022 you knew that couldn't be right but here we eare >> people didn't care when they're getting those returns. >> thanks. and my next guest is a ceo

of a bank that provides services for digital assets how widespread could this contagion be joining me is custodian bank ceo. you've been warning about this potential more is there potentially in the crypto system and could it take down well-meaning players like yourself >> custodian bank is designed for solvency. for it's a radically different business model. and to obe clear, we're not yet operating. but our design is to be nonleverage. for it's the polar opposite of all the mess i've been warning about the it last few years that is creating the train wreck. bitcoin isn't going anywhere they continue to print blocks.

and bitcoin itself is going to be just fine >> kw >> what's it for though, going forward? even in the inflationary environment, you would be better off holding dollars, than netflix stock or bitcoin or, or, or so, what does bitcoin, what do the other crypto currencies have to prove out as their usability case going forward, if not appreciation >> well, all leverage gains have definitely made bitcoin and other high-beta tech stocks, in this last cycle. but the reality is bitcoin itself is a store of value it is an alternative it is a monetary instrument not issued by a counterparty the mistakes that so many in the crypto industry did, of which i was quite critical, are to turn

the counterparty monetary token into something that needed counterparties and it doesn't. good riddance to all of these companies that were the perverbial icarus's flying too close to the sun let's go back to what they de designed for the industry, which is leverageless transactions and that's what custodian bank is built for. >> do we need regulation and is some level of centralization to insure that decentralized vision can play out >> that's a great question and i have been pro-regulation, with refwgard to enabling regulation that prevents fr fraudsters and crazy leverage players that burned the industry

so badly in the last several months one of the challenges is the regulators, by slow walking the non-leveraged players, with of which custodia is one, they didn't give the market an alternative. and into that void of the slow walking that happened from-regulators, build all these fraudsters and frankly some criminals. and that's -- the regulators work both with action and inaction and in this case, i think their inaction caused much greater problems that was true with the sec which green lited it as the one and only way to gain exposure to bitcoin in their brokage accounts for almost six years. it was a closed-end fund that traded at a premium to bitcoin all these leveraged wall street funds could pick off the retail investors.

how is that good for the industry >> we wo often go from underreaction to overreaction. w when it comes to regulation and legislation. what's the scenario where we thread the needle and get this right so the story isn't react to turn crypto into a ponzi scheme and instead giving consumers more power and opportunity? >> a great question and goes back to what the state of wyoming special depository institutions were designed for yvlb been working on this more than three years to create a institution subject to bank capital standards and regulations. all the players in the crypto industry are not subject to those right now. and that's the challenge i think they all ultimately will be rewired to be regulations as banks and that's going to be

good for consumers and the users ultimately >> a lot of people want to buy magic beans. let's see if they want beans, even if they're good for us. thank you. >> thank you coming up, crude prices crashing below 100 bucks for the first time in months and we're going to look at big declines and the fallout for energy stocks and 34 minutes until the release of the fed minutes what will investors be watching for? what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create

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welcome back to "the exchange." crude falling below a hundred dollar a barrel for the first time since may >> energy stocks are getting hit across the board as recession calls grow louder the s&p energy sector is down 26% since hitting a multi-year high june 8. as one person told me, it was the last domino to fall after being the lone bright spot in the market for months. oil has weakened and investors are selling energy stocks. apa, marathon oil, all dropping nearly 40% from their latest highs.

coal making a comeback amid the energy crunch. stoc stocks including pebody in question and the picture isn't much better for clean energy. down sharply in the last month canadian solar, sun power and array technologies down as well. this is partly due to correlation with high growth stocks, which investors have fled and the impact of higher rates and policy uncertainty for those bullish on clean energy, they say in time this trend will turn it around. crude has sold back but remains elevated and the longer oil, gas and coal are high, the more attractive renewables look for now, it's a lot of red across the board >> thanks. now, despite the recent declines, sky high gas prices have led to a huge surge in prices

while everyone is talking about tracking exxon's of the world. bank of america has an i didn't out as gas cards reached the highest since 2004 it's been a rough year for the fuel card providers. shares of wex down from the 52-week high our next guest is staying bullish on the long-term growth prospects for both companies this is an interesting space these gas card companies about fleetszb, not individuals. -companies want the right vehicles on the most eficient roots, with buying the cheapest gas. but not the whole problem.

what the cards help with is as possible for you to fill your vehicles they have interesting technologies they do provide in addition to just giving you a rebait on your gas prices. they'll have a some apps, some interesting reporting technologies to help you control the cost of fuels but they tend to focus on the last piece you engz mentioned. >> i wonder how much they move to solve the fuller problem aztecnology providers and not just payments providers? it's similar to what we've seen with the airbnbs and expedias getting further to operations. it has its challenges when it comes to fleet are you betting on just the

payment piece or solving a larger problem >> they're making wider investments. they've really been expanding. one of the big areas that they're leveraging and getting growth in has been the b 2 b where they work with larger customers to take over and deliver those payments more efficiently. it's an interesting growth opportunity. but really the way i think we ethink of them is the combination of different businesses and you can certainly cross sell and that's early days on that stock. >> hot are the things that work against the thesis in these payment companies.

i imagine a tight labor market might also have an effect. what they're laering from their customers is for those -- and to your point. for the most part, it's an interchange where you're getting paid a percentage of the gas bill effectively on the positive side, they're not so much for the businesses and customers is gas prices are up and this has led to some kind

of increased demand that increased a need for these cards. so, yeah >> can you hedge the bet on a fuel card providers against the payments players dealing in business travel. >> i'm not sure that's right, right? where they're focussed on oin term its of the gas cards is small businesses for the most part and moving of goods and services think your local company as those businesses drive around the service and they need to fill gas in those vaeks. business travel seems to be going to conventions, things like that. mapping if you will in that way. >> fair enough i'll work on it. thanks for illuminating the

space for us >> thanks for having me. >> still ahead a contrarian housing call he's going to join us to make his case but stock down 50% in a year plus amazon prime members getting a new perk well tell you what it is and what it means for the tu ofuref food delivery. an

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welcome back to "the exchange." markets considering the possibility of a late day rally. the dow's high was with up 122 points

the low was down 173 right now it's down about 100. it was up a little more but now seems to be trailing off same with s&p and nasdaq, which is about break even. energy leading declined, followed by rate discretionary the fed minutes in about a half hour one name is netflix. shares moving lower after barclay's cut the price target from 275, saying it's on track to report another weak quarter stock's down 70% since januaryad over to cnbc.com heerbz the cnbc news update. good afternoon united airlines coo and cost 75% of recent cancellations.

republican senator lindsey graham says he will challenge a subpoena demanding he testify them investigating possible election interference. president biden and vice president harris visited the wife of brittney fwgriner and they want information on the h highland park shooter. and stuff turned and done it in the connection back over to you >> courtney, thank you still ahead, can or can't the fed engineer a soft landing? one of my next guests. doesn't really matter. nica rou a sigfintebnd

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welcome back

now about 25 minutes away from the release of the june fed minutes. and cooling inflation and falling energy prices and slowing spending will the fed maintain the same level of hawkishness and let's bring in managing partner. barry, you say the market has fully discounted your worse outcome. how can that be when earnings expectations are still so high >> well, i think you'd have to consider what kind of category we fall into not just the technical definition but one described as a recession. and you have to go back some time to look at what happens during inflationary recessions where the fed tightens policy

enough to cause us to go into a recession and compare it to the last three prior to the pandemic, which were credit cycles and those were fuelled by bank credit we had the commercial real estate collapse, leading to the sales and loan industry collapsing that was a credit cycle. earnings dropped some 28%. we then had the tech bubble burst. it brought s&p earnings down 31%. again, a portion of the buildout of the internet was portioned due to banking systems and then of course we know what happened during the global financial crisis but if you compare that to 1969, 1970 1981 to 1982 or more appropriately, the 1980 recession, you tended to have real growth drop

and even in those long 16-month, 73 to 75 and 1981 to 1982 recessions, that's greatest than 10%. what's more probable is 1980 where we had a six month recession and earnings only went down four. >> but, but now stephen, i can imagine a scenario where inflation remains stubbornly high even though growth slows and the fed has to keep hiking do you think that is priced in >> yes and no. i don't believe it's priced into the market nor do i believe the actual ecnaurmic pain that's going to be felt is priced into the market today my view of the situation is very simply the fed is not going to reverse course i believe when the fed inflectsb, it's not a pivot. it's simply an inflection. and the pace of rate hikes slows. i irks, instead of 4%, as james

bullered would like us to get in the quick near future, it could take us a year plus, year and a half to get there. as the fed goes back to a series of 25-basis point rate hikes perhaps staggered one per quarter as we go into 2023 and that's a different scenario that know we've seen but i don't believe this is going to be a recession. i don't bleelieve there's a strn rebound. i think it's going to return to a shallow subquarter two growth trajectory >> and when is that? when do you think we're done with it? >> a good five quarters. and you could argue whether we're already into it. i think we're not out of the malaise until the first quarter of next year and clearly that's not priced in, from at least my analsets >> you don't think we're

necessarily going to get calls in a recession anytime soon. so, is there anything in particular you're going to be watching for in the fed minutes to ratify or challenge that? >> i think-big question for the fed minutes are going to be how much of the decision hinge upon inflation expectation its relative to the actual inflation data, which clearly has peeked i thing they have egg on their face with respect to having over reacted to the preliminary estimate for the inflationary survey it went to to33 and when they got the rest of the data, it was only 31. it looks like a bit of an overreaction clearly inflation has peeked on the good side. we're getting another round of housing data for the month of june that's the cutting edge of a fed policy

that's where we're going to intersect with the real economy. they're going to think we've slowed it. and i agree with steve's assessment that the pace of tightening will slow and we are past the maximum point of pain in terms of tighter policy when that happened in 1994 in november, that kicked off a very significant equity market rally. y with got to 75 >> i hear you. but-you say inflation has peeked, i get flashbacks to march, april, may and -- it's one thing to be past the maximum point of pain, steven. it's another thing for the pain to ease. how long is it going to ride around at this high level and what are the impacts if it does? >> longer than people think and that's why there's no reversal in monetary policy and why the fed, even though they'll slow the pace of rate hikes will have to continue throughout the

entire expansionary period when you're looking at today's minutes, you want to look for it degree of discourted over the 75 basis point move we know we had one dissension. from the 75-basis point move it came after the chairman had taken 75 basis points off the table and they leaked it out the back dar the question is how broad based was that verses how much push back did they get? and did they decide to go with it from a voting standpoint but there was more heated debate than we think? i bet it wasn't that much of a heated debate and it keeps alive the concept the fed could go 75 basis points and we're going to keep going more quickly than the market can anticipate. i think the rally is probably over do at this juncture >> the fed's probably more in sink on the supreme court.

we can bet on that at least. thank you. up next, esg investing has outspoken supporters and critics. but check out this chart this company has perfect ratio pay equity, at lstccdiea aorng to a new study the name and why they're staying mum on their internal next lobalg from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.

welcome back apple is the chart we showed you in the tease one of the few companies that has achieved racial pay equity at least according to the just capital's new study. here with more on the fierndi findings and the questions the data raises. >> the questions are the key point because america's 100 largest employers are increasingly disclosing more

equity pay progress. only companies with a near or perfect score are the ones sharing information. ac according to the new study, 22 of the companies disclosed their pay ratio. they include ge, bank of america, verizon, starbucks and nordstrom. 43% of companies -- meaning roughly half are choosing not to disclose the results so, this may be a case of reporting bias says the director of corporate equity at just capital >> the companies we're seeing release the actual data, pay ratio data tend oo be eclose to equity or already reached equity and that's challenging because that means companies are not disclosing the information, potentially don't feel they've reached the point they can tell a good story

>> she notes there has been an overall jump in the amount of disclosure driven by shareholders and the public alike. >> leslie, it seems to me what's being measured is white to nonwhite, if you're a tech company with asian-american employees and black and brown equities the truth beneath the surface might be different >> no, you're spot on. that's a key point some companies are taking a step further, looking more acutely at various racial compositions as they look that racial parity because you're right, the data can be skewed by demographics. in which, the overall picture may look nice but if you dig

under the surface, there's a much wide wither gap >> we like to dig under the surface. complicated stuff. thank you. coming up, mortgage rates nearly double where they were last year. but wells fargo is getting bullish bed spite weakening demand "the exchange" will be right back very. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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total mortgage demand falling more than 5% driven lower by a steep drop in reifies. fargo seeing a glimmer of hope in one of the mortgage lenders wells upgrading rocket companies to overweight hiking its price target to ten bucks boosting the stock by 5% today and the shares are still down 40% this year joining me now the analyst behind the upgrade don fendetti equity research analyst for finance at wells don, why why this one in particular >> yeah. good afternoon so, look, we've been pretty cautious on rocket it's a very tough time in the mortgage market. as you mentioned, the stock's down 40% this year we actually think rocket is going to be a major beneficiary of the market dislocation. we think they can take market

share. we also expect capacity to come out of the industry as mortgage originators sort of pare back capacity on the lower volume, and that's going to be good for a gain on sale margins and the other element is investor sentiment can't get much worse for the mortgage industry. investors are very bearish on this stock and as you well know, you can't make money buying stocks that everyone loves, so that was the genesis behind the upgrade. >> affordability, still horrible, but inventory starting to creep up. you mentioned that rocket has been a pioneer in digitizing the market how does that give them an advantage in a market that's still unaffordable and where -- i don't know, interest rates don't necessarily beckon to people and buy something expensive right now. >> look, it's a tough market i think it will be a tough market for equities in general

you have the fed essentially taking out the excess equipment and i do think the consumer is in pretty good shape and at least coming into this at a good position our best case is zero. i mean zero gdp growth and whether that's a recession or modest gdp growth, it's hard to say. what i would say, we're looking for companies that will be winners over the long haul and we think rocket can be a consolidator we're the most efficient company in the space and so we think even though the market is brutal for originators we want to take the contrarian that look forward six to 12 months and say who will come out of this stronger who can take market share? we think that's rocket and the main reason why we think we're bullish on the stock and just given that it's going against the grain here >> yeah. your coverage universe is nice

and broad in finance and i wonder what you expect to happen with the bulk of consumers as interest rates rise. do people kind of shy away from taking on more credit card debt and actually do more refis for the stuff that they actually have to buy because the interest rates while higher are still lower than they would be on the other type of credit who benefits in this environment? >> well, rocket has been benefiting from a lot of cashout refi activity as home values have appreciated we think some of that will cool off and investors will move more toward home equity and we alluded to this earlier that the consumer is in a tricky spot because balance sheet is very good, debt to service -- the income to debt ratios are very strong right now, but look, there's going to be some impact, right? you have the fed raising rates we cover a lot of the card issuers and you're seeing some

change in behavior on the consumer and so some of the things we're watching, the stock portfolios are down 20% on the tech side. we think that could go lower housing prices, in our view is there's no home price appreciation at this point and we're watching to see if that really rolls over and that could make us more cautious on the consumer and right now it's premature to get too bearish on the consumer >> okay. it's kind of nice to hear. don fandetti with wells fargo. thank you. >> thank you >> coming up, your amazon prime subscription perhaps got tastier thanks to the techia gnt's latest partnership those details are next

welcome back amazon addaing the takeaway.com subsidiary grubhub sending shares of other food delivery services lower deidre bossa joins me with the

details. amazon has an option to take a 2% stake, but won't necessarily, right? >> right, and that could actually increase to 15% depend upon how the deal goes, but essentially what grubhub gets in return is access to those 100 million-plus households and the subscription service for free for a year and then the hopes is that some of those customers will stay online jon, as we talked about this earlier on "tech check," even if it's a small conversion rate, these are valuable customers with subscription models and that is the hope the amazon prime wheel is very valuable, very powerful, but grubhub is sort of the third player in this field >> there's not a ton of discovery in prime, i don't think. i don't go looking through some prime basket to see what benefits i can get i get some free delivery and some content i wonder how they'll surface

this and that's not necessarily clear and there are peopleloya to other services who won't necessarily care that grubhub is not in the basket. >> or maybe they have a dash pass subscription. what kind of question is what kind of restrants is it going to tap into? the timing is very interesting because amazon has been in this business before, unsuccessfully, it had amazon restaurants as well as prime pantry it closes operations because they weren't gaining much traction and this is for amazon to dip its toe back in and see how the industry has changed and we know very well that it has changed a lot over the last couple of years. doordash and uber, the major place and they're getting beyond cosmetics, electronics and convenience and maybe amazon can keep an eye on potential competition. >> interesting, indeed dee, thank you doordash down 7.5% and as we

head into the watch the fed minutes, the major averages just about flat and we'll see where we can go from here. that does it for the exchange. "power lunch" starts right now ♪ ♪ and welcome to "power lunch. i'm dom chu in for tyler matheson with courtney reagan this afternoon we are moments away from the fed's interest rate meeting. you can see there just about hovering near fractionally down territory. we'll see what happens let's get right out to ylan mui with the latest there. ylan >> the minutes of the latest fed meeting show that officials agreed that another rate hike of 50 to 75 basis points would likely be appropriate at its meeting later this month officials also acknowledge that there could be an even more restrictive stance that could be appropriate if inflation remains high the minutes show that fe