taken off for that will you keep it, honestly >> beautiful piece of art from the guys in brooklyn awesome. >> all right thank you. thank you for playing along and for coming on. i know it's difficult talk bitcoin if you have a crypto firm thank you. you are back again tomorrow. >> "squawk on the street" is up next. >> swan song ♪ good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." l lye at post 9. commodities and yields bounce. numbers cut by the street today in retail, software and the banks. our road map begins with stocks eyeing that four-day rally the british pound bounces on a

shakeup in the uk. >> i want you to know how sad i am to be giving up the best job in the world but themes the breaks. >> plus samsung reports the best quarterly profits since 2018 spurring a continued rally for chip stocks. >> thank you. >> we'll talk about merck buying the very large bio tech cancer focused company seagen if it is announced what about the anti-trust side? >> i think you are very right about that. >> trying to maintain that upward momentum. sounds like you don't put -- >> no! i don't want to pick on anybody but morgan stanley said we're worried about the inventory that's building. samsung last night basically saying things are good micron said it will be a short

decline so i think we are fighting the last war. david, of the loved ones down 50, 60% supposed to say we have to wait until they're down 80? what about intel >> i don't think it's great if you own it yeah. >> on your game again. >> i am. i'm here to play. >> tan did you see -- >> i did see a hot tan on. >> just about making the numbers. how you doing? making the numbers i like a guy like that. >> nvidia is something else you loved. >> all the way up. >> i noticed a startup -- up yesterday. >> started to bouncing i sold some at the top which i felt badly about my dog died. the name is nvidia

crashed because of gaming. i think that was wrong ab far more industrial. see? that's the whole thing is about how much is gaming and how much is pc. people just decide to write your obituary i think some were premature. intel has way too much pc. micron has way too much pc nvidia has gaming. >> we spoke to - >> because the bottom. that was the bottom. >> short term bottom or put in for sometime is a question. >> can go back to 67 easily. look it's not selling four times irnings. >> right. >> wow i look good there. >> very sharp. >> very sharp there. red tie. thank you to mary duffy. carl, i do not like research saying it is time to start worrying about the decline in

the semiconductors that it could be elongated what do people want out of lisa sue? the ceo of amd stock at 176 and then it goes to 76 well now i'm shaking time to shart shaking. cool hand luke he doesn't like this. >> i know. >> hard boiled eggs. >> i know the movie. >> people are like amd now i'm worried. now i'm worried. no you can't be now you're worried. >> does this extend beyond semis? >> yes. >> we got numbers. e-commerce, software. >> i think that metaverse. i bought the quest paid 310 for it. my daughter's birthday she'll be surprise jd the idea that alphabet at say 14 times

earnings is expensive why if you cut the ad budget back the only one you still use is alphabet with the r.o.i. >> i think that is true. i think what you hear from advertisers is that's the case beloved meta and or snap -- understood alphabet seems to win coming down to making the choice as you say. >> the whole thing that -- we can't keep changing what the goal post. you come into this year and end of q1 we decided that zuckerberg is a bozo and a loser. now the people's republic of china and reelz works well with instagram. this is another one. he's -- actually expanding the

workforce but getting rid of people not doing anything. is that bad? remember chicago alter >> that would make sense to be efficient. >> zuckerberg can't fire people not doing anything. >> who said that >> that's the consensus. >> why people were a little surprised last year spending $10 billion on the metaverse before they changed the name. >> now they're not >> because that was the number they shared. >> look. they don't need the engineers. when things are really robust they hired every engineer that walked by the building the building is eight different sections takes 40 minutes to walk from building 1 to 8. >> wouldn't know. >> i'm just saying that when you walk by there's engineers

everywhere probably they were playing pong. i don't know what they were doing. >> explains the challenge of the layoff number. >> this is my whole point! you see the weekless claims? >> highest since december. >> mark my words we are seeing the first, first layoffs in silicon valley since 2000 remember in 2000 when it became a vast wasteland >> yes yes. you had an e enormous companies. >> they have a different model and realize they don't need a lot of these people and that's the -- a lot of places in silicon valley are the epicenter of the layoffs. >> okay. >> not going to go be -- >> to encapsulate the

conversation chips good samsung quite good quarter maybe a bottom in chips because there is more demand than we thought. >> inventory lower. >> employment side high price software engineers are laid off. >> 9:07 and done talking. >> in summary -- >> we'll find something else to talk about. >> that's the whole thing. you listen to argen? imitates me. doing cramer every night is that ever self reverent. >> who's that? >> our guy a guy. he's fantastic. >> is he sorry. >> never watched him don't you love him >> i think so. maybe. >> well -- >> don't put us on the spot. >> what time do you get up >> a normal hour.

>> i watch sometimes 1:30, 2:00. >> in the morning? >> yeah. when i have nothing to do. >> got it. apologies to him. >> talking about employment. we have claims at 235. some suggested 250 is a line where the fed can start to think differently. >> we got the minutes yesterday and sounded like we would be a republic and got to stop the economy in the tracks. felt like -- it is the chart of corn is really right now we thought that corn was going to 12 now the president spends a lot of time talking about the refineries and better get it open because that will hurt us but when corn was at 800, going to $8, corn going to 15. david, you can't give away corn

now. remember that scene in "witness"? you said we would be safe if philadelphia silos are filled with corn >> amazing scene we, by the way, gains for the year gone. >> gone. >> yeah. >> just a month ago all of these things through the roof. what the president should be doing rather than talking about holly frontier should betalkin about the price of food stuff to come down in the supermarket if not we analyze the problems in the food chain. cattle is lower. >> ubs cut kellogg. >> that was a stupid downgrade >> oh. >> i said so in the morning report. >> evidence lab? >> no. kellogg is splitting up. brilliant plan you know the main cost of a box

of cereal? >> the cardboard. >> no. the cell fophane. >> my father would sell -- >> don't talk to dad. >> because dad didn't sell liner board. had a price decrease. >> not a good day. >> why is he upset >> preparing for food prices to go up more dramatically because of the inability of the heartlands of europe ukraine to -- >> bread basket. >> to be able to grain out. >> what can i tell you it was a bumper crop. >> advances in yields just technology. >> much better >> piece by a farmer this week in "the washington post" saying the advances in yield will do eight times what his grandfather

would have been a bumper crop. >> at my farm i will try to have a tractor with no human. >> an automated tractor? >> yeah. will frost used to work here his in-laws have 17 large tractors >> i did not know that it is amazing what you learn on this show. >> crushing it with the price. crushing it with automation. >> in-laws in the states beautiful farms in the uk. wow. >> i was thinking something else it is interesting. >> a lot of cows. >> david picks another thing in the uk to talk about the cows needs codswold. >> boris johnson resigned. >> what happened to brexit what was the impact?

what was the impact? >> pinch yourself. >> brexit to exit. that's the headline. >> we have to go when we come back we'll talk about stocks. >> we will actually -- you laughed at me saying seagen. >> they laughed. they all laughed >> you were like - >> i did not laugh at you. u you were early. >> got some calls this morning on ibm, walmart. ge, stboon beers when "squawk on the street" comes back we all know this equation, right? he'd crunched numbers day and night. that's it. to maximize profitability. morning. i have quarterly numbers that are beautiful. and forecast revenue from every corner of your organization. is that important? or you could use workday. the finance hr and planning system

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there's another show where people talk about unusual activity there is no unusual activity in seagen but does go up every day. no unusual activity. >> why are you pointing out seattle genetics >> going up every day. >> there's an understanding that there will be consolidation. >> dr. siegel is gone. i see this go up merck has a relationship with them every day. >> what's the symbol >> sgen. look at this stock look at this stock >> look at it now, too by the way a lot higher than then on june 20th since then the journal reported on talks that have continued to advance to the point where --

again, this is the journal reporting. close to a deal. 40 plus billion. we don't -- i haven't heard price. 215 range seems possible we'llsee but -- and again a large deal for merck. a company with specific cancer therapies. you can imagine combining them for new therapys we'll see if they get to a deal. anti-trust is rearing the head here as it does oftentimes in deals. microsoft activision is a good template with continued fear that it would be block but unclear if there's the law on the side of those that might try to do so anti-trust with pharma there's a new focus on it from the ftc which typically does

review the deals and a couple weeks ago there's something called the future of pharmaceuticals examining the analysis of mergers. it was a workshop held as they sort of have this multilateral merger task force this is raising questions about whether or not a deal such as this one if it gets announced merck for seagen would get a second request we haven't seen any second requests yet coming to that pharma deals would it would they go as far as to try to block the deal. listen to lina khan in this workshop. >> we have seen imper call reports showing that acquisitions to shut down potential competitors may be

common in the pharmaceutical industry and few leading drugs developed in the companies that ultimately enjoy the vast majority of profits and then of course we have seen lawsuits surfacing with allegations that companies have been illegally bundling and tying market leading drugs with competitors for lesser drugs in recent years. >> none means that we see potential challenges to a deal if merck were to buy seagen and there's rebuttals there. they won't buy seagen at 40 bill because they won't try to innovate that's the point and the combinations with those to take place. one of the great cancer drugs out there. it is confusing, jim, to say the

least. whether it's really jawboning at this point or whether they follow through with what would be a novel look at anti-tryst to rely on the market power side of things opposed to true overlaps as a traditional view of why a transaction should be blocked. >> going over assistant attorney general cantor's view. >> at the doj. >> not directly addressed this in the cases. >> no. ftc takes the lead on pharma >> l ina's words are chilling because basically if you want to continue -- let's summarize. if merck buys seagen that's the innovation of seagen. >> she seems to be criticizing big pharma

what we have been seeing is buying the smaller guys, taking the risk and not past phase three. seagen has products on the market and then obviously taking it from there they have the salesforces and the resources to get through the fda and everything else. i don't know if it stifles or helps innovation. >> you raise a great point take bio haven dr. vlad came up with nurtech or migraines. why did he sell out to pfizer? he did not have the able to blow out nurtech. didn't have the money. if he sold to pfizer many more people would benefit is he on the wrong or right side

of history personally involved with the foundation and the problem is trying to get awareness. i think that lina would stifle awareness. >> good question we haven't seen anything from the ftc but a real risk for the deal and why even if it is announced it could take as long as a year to pass regulatory approval >> fascinating. >> we don't know the exact price. >> great reporting great reporting by you. >> activision trading at a 20% spread. >> cantor will not like that. >> i don't know the law to rely on to try to block it. >> the idea of fewer people to write. you have writers for microsoft and activision. >> okay. >> enough. >> we'll get to the opening bell

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pretty busy thursday for the markets. got the claims data. trade deficit. bullard 1:00 p.m. eastern time looking for fresher commentary about the inflation picture than the minutes yesterday. opening ll iben 4:30 don't go anywhere.

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let's get in a quick mad dash before the opening bell banks reporting next week. >> i'm going to bore you. >> okay. >> i sometimes don't mind doing that there's a report today by

raymond james and it is very interesting downgrading pnc financial. it is a really well run bank sells at 11 times earnings reports on the 15th. this is the battleground stock why? i say that i don't care. it is so low as long as they don't show an uptick in loan losses they get the big beneficiary of the fed raising rates. why would you sell pnc financial down from 220 down to 160. why would i sell that? it is going to go to 130 i don't know i think it's a buy now. >> okay. not concerned about a slowdown overall? >> no. when you look at the loan book it is very strong and looking at the net interest it is going to be amazing so taking the other side of that trade the man that sells seagen is

tacking the other side of the pnc trade. >> getting the banks in a moment opening bell here. it is dakota gold corp bio tech evt atlanta cuts bank estimates. weak investment banking. wealth management. negative marks on loans. on investments at least. >> that's a reason i picked pnc is they don't have that market exposure and if you're goldman sachs, if you remember back to last -- look if we see a slowdown we won't hesitate to act. we will basically shift resources. common talk for laying people

off. is gold mman true to the word how many ipos? >> not many. had the spac fire hose come to a complete end. >> that was good. >> also had very few ipos as we know because every day we would be here talking about them. >> i was at a party. i was the only person that didn't have a spac all trying to find something to buy. i don't know i grew up. not trying to find something to buy. like your father said -- >> here's the money. >> go buy something. >> anything. >> give back the money >> sofi deal >> clover. think on any of them virgin galactic.

i don't think so not that he should give the money back. >> talks about - >> billions of dollars. >> made billions billions >> by the way, he did get a lot of air time. articulate fellow. >> came on i think that mike is unlike a lot of other people said, listen i got a real whooping. i like mike. admitted when he loses money and something that other people don't. claymath got out of those deals. >> the cereal spac people, foley, michael klein. >> foley. >> they did just fine. but the quality of the deals not so good. wow. holy -- oh i haven't looked at that for a while. have you seen this >> legendary

comes on now and has an ad - >> if you had shorted the cnbc post spac index. not a real thing >> david - >> you would have made a fortune coming up with that. every day. >> bash the stocks. >> every day. >> my friends mad at me. all had spacs. >> do you see the quality of the jackets? 80% poly remind me of dow chemical. that's what people say about you. i'm sorry. >> they have a spac. isn't that a warning sign? >> a friend with a spac. he was now no longer talking about it he is basically -- >> all in hide jg looking for a deal. >> that was very good. >> more interesting structure.

looking for another deal most run out of time. >> trying to buy everything in the worst market to buy anything why don't they buy 3m's groundwater problem? >> why did you bring that up >> they settled for 500 million. they can't seem to get any closure. >> it was a moment we remember last spring with the meme phenomenon and reminded of with gme split and buying 50k of bed bath. >> yeah. remember ryan cohen came in. maid a stand on bed bath it was the mid-20s. >> a unifying theme from the companies. >> that's why i brought it up. >> i made it clear to the viewers. >> important figure coming to

gamestop >> suboptimal you could say. >> yeah. that was not right now. because i said that i'm a top ten hated person on twitter saying that negative thing about ryan cohen i can't look at the mentions column for the next day. the stock is now at 5. the interim ceo spent some money and bought some. at your bed bath are there inventory problems >> yes >> i know. >> it's a problem when you put things on the shelves that nobody wants to buy. >> did you listen to the comp call >> i did. >> one of the finest in retail what you want to do is put things on the shelves that sell but we didn't accomplish this. >> did you see oppenheimer

removing walmart >> that's the bottom. >> heavy inventory in grills, pools. >> how many stores did he go through? >> in new jersey. >> that's it route 22 holy cow time to sell walmart. >> for cheap >> five different grill companies. >> i remember. >> traeger and weber. >> they should merge listen here's the obvious stuff walmart stock fell from 160 to 120 with too much inventory. now this guy shopping at walmart. probably the first time ever look at all the celery epa lettuce. oh my! lots of grills 160 yes. 120?

they have too much vinventory. i had a spat with him. i feel badly. >> not worth the paper printed on. >> i couldn't kill another tree. there's another great piece. there's an ollies. david loves obvious research a guy like ollies. a member of ollies army. raises the price target from 70 to 75 calling it a consensus log. go to my ollies. if after you get out of the section of the books in a flood. some store i got a book about the third reek for 59 cents. >> not bad. >> if you go to ollies they have the inventory. the gentleman going to the walmart, his walmart in

flemington, if he goes to the ollies he will see the stuff that was at walmart. we get early look at what they have it is target and walmart. >> it is. >> providing a lot of the inventory for ollies. >> they have things like -- you know yeti? they will have yefi and made oddly in china. >> kidding >> no. feti made in china. mostly third tier cities. >> we haven't talked a lot of china this week. >> they already had. >> fbi mi-5 warning about industrial - >> going on for 15 years but -- >> i know. by the way, we stopped them by putting pressure on the dutch.

>> yes. >> pressure on the dutch that hasn't happened since 1565. >> ibm, jim? nice little kiss from morgan stanley today. up 4% for the year. >> i wept to paige mandy when's my coordinator with katie to see whether katie -- still on apple. >> eric is - >> eric did that ibm piece he likes -- it is the stock to buy in the late cycle. very powerful piece. i have to tell you when i look at what he's saying, it is an inexpensive stock and i think it's a good job. >> i mean, it is up this year. ibm is up. >> bought red hat. not buying it at all >> i don't know. >> i know people feel it's

like -- ibm. >> that is kind of what they feel ibm. >> ibm yeah >> chinatown, jake. >> forget it, jake. >> do you have a pen knife so i can cut your nose? >> i like breathing through it. >> his last one before taking off. >> cutting numbers. >> endorsing the book and then says negative things about me in the book. >> is that true? did a blurb for the book >> really kind of hurtful. i love the guy. >> sounds like a time for a penknife to the nose. >> jim cramer didn't know what he was doing. >> i would prefer one or the other. >> cutting numbers on airbnb -- he is right about that losing a lot of money. chesky has 1.5 billion in free

cash employee and will challenge him on that. not like he challenged me in the book. >> interesting. >> hurt my feelings. my feelings were hurt. like the mentions column the ceo of twitter pointed out that -- apologized that the column is top five bad. >> get over it, jim. >> i won't. >> you are. >> i won't. >> i will move on. >> i was in my mentions column. >> more about the mentions column close it down. >> love column where it meets -- >> it is beautiful. >> did you go swimming in the it >> you can swim and -- they have a gond leer. >> the green bubbles >> beautiful i wanted to mention softbank

it is an important story >> i did talk about it. >> i like the way you made that a verb. >> same guy that played -- >> i mention it because misra who has run the vision fund overseeing that is stepping back according to a memo signed by masasan. going to oversee the original funds and step back from oversight of vision fund 2 it is a lot of saudi money in there for vision fund 1. but clarna 45 billion to 6.5 billion on the next funding round. softbank at 45 goes to what we have to start to see which is where are the private investments marked how are they being marked on down funding round certainly and

off of earnings. they have reporting periods. and that was the end of june so i'm very curious to see significant hedge fund with large positions in many private companies. have they marked them significantly down or is there still a lot more to come the biggest is softbank. >> so many came public at the levels that's where people really got crushed. >> yes yes. the companies that -- right. became public. >> the companies that came public because of the pandemic i thought doordash would go under. live long and prosper. >> yeah. >> gasoline, jim gas buddy said 2500 stations sub $4. >> i have to give brian des a

shout out. said that gasoline would go down the adviser to president biden and now has to start talking about why tyson foods is charging as much. >> inflation moderates you get that spread on the back half of the year. >> i meant politically i favor tyson making money the president should stop picking on the refineries and pick on the food processors to make a political point. >> inflation come down and services inflation is not coming down. >> just wait. >> really? >> oh yeah you just wait. >> for what? wages won't start coming down? >> why because minimum wage is -- >> hard to reduce somebody's - >> pmi services both have employment in contraction. >> david listen to me chipotle with machines making

chips. a matter of time before they make everything. at nvidia they learn to pick up jell-o they pick it up all they want. >> i don't know what to think about that they had machines trying to pick up jell-o at nvidia? >> yeah. good boy. >> better than black ice problem? >> haven't solved this. >> i thought they made the chip that is go in it >> talking about -- this is machine learning that if you have a machine trying to pick up jell-o and gets it and say good boy and then picks it up right every time now go to the digital twin and if one of the stupid fast food companies were to call they have the digital twin speaking in 27

languages and can't make mistakes and wellistening to the box. there's drive throughs wendy's won't do it. mcdonald's which had a number cut today and ridiculous doing well instead of the person that doesn't understand you and i didn't order the double cheese this is not my big mac the machine listens and knows in 27 languages. >> and then make it is burger in the back >> gives the order to somebody that make it is burger. >> still a human being >> flawless. you need flawless. okay need flawless. >> replaces the person with the headset on >> digital twin. not the metaverse. mark writes on nvidia chips. >> mark? zuckerberg by the way. >> yeah.

we'll see. get the franchiser to pay for that cap-x why not cheap quick reminder you can get in on the cs in investing club with jim. watching rates waiting bullard at 1:00. you have the 2-year front end flitting with 3. oil at 103 the s&p working on four straight wins haven't done that since march. don't go away.

we talked a moment ago about the warning from the fbi director christopher wray raising alarms about chinese espionage. in -- he issued a warning to business leaders about china >> the chinese government sees seer as the pathway to cheap and

steal on a massive scale it's set on stealing your technology whatever it is that make your industry tech and using it to undercut your business and dominate your market >> huge implications for global companies. >> it is, but there's not a board out there of a major company that isn't fully aware of this. ten years ago not a board-level issues, perhaps. only through pain did some of these boards become aware of things in terms of intrusions. i wonder what motivated them now to come back with something we've been aware of for quite some time. perhaps the chinese are becomic aggressive again in a way that hadn't been previo, but they have legions of people who do nothing but try to steal secrets. >> this is the hallmark of

president trump's view on china. this was peter navarro's -- >> cyberwas one of many different ways they've been targeting u.s. business. again, it's trade secrets they have been after, and have succeeded to a certain extent in obtaining. people also -- not just cyber, but actually had real spies. but largely cyber. >> a lot of the technology turned out to be infected, ghost -- did you read that from marc benioff -- >> interesting that they chose to put that out. >> to the point they can make it equivalent on their own. we'll watch it back to 3884 dow is up 250. we'll get stop trading with jim in a moment. who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions

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time for jim's stop trading. >> there's a company called enjoy technology, delightfully ten, and now it's filed for

bankruptcy i'm saying that there's mobile -- it was a great idea, mobile stores, terrific, so, anyway, i'm pointing out that sometimes spacs just file bankruptcy, and ron, he was critically involved in j.c. penney >> i remember, put in by bill ackman, i saided in bankrupt sit. >> it's sad. rod is a nice guy. a tough run the last couple chapters how about tonight, jim >> i have a company that a lot of people call cpi, tom seibel. >> i rebel it was a high flyer. >> and then chip bergh anything that sells into depend

stores is under pressure, and it's levi's, but it's an old brand and stood the test of time i can't wait until tonight one of the last times i'm going to be in inglewood, counting down the days. >> because tomorrow you're off, i imagine. >> yeah, i am. i have the morning off >> you're not here next week >> here, but i'm going to be -- we have a new set. >> can't look. it's a big deal for me i've been going to the other place two hours a day for 22 years, and now i'm going to be living here, and i've got a cot -- >> i can't tell you how excited we are of you being here all the time. >> i saw david was doing unusual experiences, what was it, 12:00 yesterday? >> yes, i was doing "halftime report." >> i understand you did some promos and sat at my desk. >> i did [ laughter ] >> i used clorox wipes after it.

i'm one of those freak. >> oh, yeah, i'm a freak. see you at 6:00. we're back in a moment dow is up 240.

good thursday morning. i'm carl quintanilla here at post 9, morgan brennan is on maternity leave. can we make it for t. rowe straight wins in a row >> we are 31 minutes into the trading session. three of the movers we're keeping an eye on. the interim sue dobbs bought shares, the stock is moving well, but it's been crushed lately le it be gins on the 22nd of july, having a very positive

impact remember, it doesn't have any real fundamental impact. finally we'll end with merck, according to "wall street journal," nearing what would be a 40-plus billion dollar deal for cgen, both stocks are up there will conceivably be, if they get to the finish line, antitrust concerns, because of a new effort by the ftc to look at new deals, and perhaps, carl, that would bring them to the point at the very least, they came with a second request, but even more so may try to challenge it. >> a lot written today about, a

key trua, a blockbuster drug for so long, maybe coincide an announcement with earnings on the 8th? does that make sense >> sometimes it does they have been working on this for some time. again, the journal has been reporting on it for a number of weeks at this point, but we'll have to wait and see, and certainly they will have to address sort of any antitrust kind of idea that they would be out there. you would expect even when you do get to a deal, if they do, it would trade at a fairly significant spread those minutes from the fed yesterday may have contained a small bone for stock market bulls tease liesman has more hey, steve >> good morning, carl. you have to squint to see it there's a line in the fed minutes that says all is not doom and gloom when it comes for the outlook. first the near term. the minutes told us inflation

fighting is job number one and willing to accept slower growth and the policy will go more restrictive if inflation doesn't behave you look further down into the minutes and see this statement -- after the fed hits neutral, the committee would then be well positioned to determined the appropriate pace of permanent policy and the extent to which economic developments warranted policy adjustments. there could be a pause if inflation is under control, and of course the fed could keep going. peter williams said, the committeeunder scored that it becomes more data dependent again. the market is smelling this out. during the june meeting, the futures pegged the fed by 370 by

year end the hope is that the fed stops there. you have to squint down the road to say, but we'll talk about it foreman with rafael bostic on "squawk box. guys >> the past few mornings we've been talking about commodity prices falling, corn, for example, but you can look at any number of commodities, and see charts back to levels we haven't seen in some time. how does that figure into the fed's thinking >> maybe it's going to fit into the thinking, because just as surely as the surge did as well, it means you'll have initially it takes time, you'll have maybe some of the boil come off on the producer prices, and then work the way down to consumer prices.

remember, guys, a key in a competitive market, a higher than norm at price shall not stand, and the question is whether or not you get these price decreases at the producer level working their way down certainly it should take some of the boil off the high inflation rates coming down the road and whether or not it reverses i mean, that's a longer way to go guys >> steve, appreciate that. thanks for setting us up david lobe oa lebovitz and michd join us this morning i'm looking at a j.p. morgue -- morgan report, titled food inflation, from boil to simmer how much of this do we trust >> so, i mean, first i'd like to address the point of how much do commodity prices matter to the fed. i think when it comes to commodity driven inflation does

not level measure, and it does seem reasonable that they'll come off the boil and perhaps move to more of a simmer over the course of the cupping months i think there's another piece to this puzzle. part of what's gone on here, and you can see this clearly in t thesh they've been redirecting more to spending of food and energy, and that weaker demand is part of what i think is factored into the fed's decision to get to neutral, and then look around and see i think this is a moving target. again, that means they have more to spend elsewhere perhaps that doesn't take inflation off the boil quite as quickly as a lot of people had thought. >> michael, i wonder how you're trying to frame or read fomc policy in general, because they talk about, well, well electric

expectations become untethered, and what about the relation- some say, you know what? that will -- >> well, you know t. steve ace point about being data dependent is important, but what is more important is whether they're looking at incoming data or they go back to their old ways of looking at their own forecast. the next cpi report, next reading on inflation, other than tomorrow's data is like lip to be very stronger we expecting another 0.6 on core counter. pi because of june's gasoline price increase the drop of gas loon futures is to about 20% from its peak one of the fed focus shifts back to looking at forward-looking measures like commodity prices or the income data is important

for the june meeting we think they'll ease back a bit and, quote, unquote only go 50 basis points, but there's still a risk that they just rely on headline numbers that are incoming, not be forward-looking at all, and go 75. >> and if that's not confounding enough, david, there's something that argue the spread with cpi and pe is kind of like a choose your own adventure story that may freeze the fed in action and keep them too tight for too long, depending on how things work out. >> it's a question we get all the time we're always trying to get people to understand the difference importantly the fed prefers pce as their measure of inflation. it's more dynamic, the weights are adjusted more frequently cpi tends to be a bit stale, so i do think the fed will focus on

pce, but i think what is interesting -- again, going back to the minutes, the fed is providing us with a sense that they are getting their arms around the broader situation you know, carl, when we were chat ago couple months ago, it was like staring into the abyss. do they care about growth? do they care about inflation what's going to happen with the economy? it feels like we're beginning to see things crystallize, we know they're prioritizing inflation over growth. the question is whether we stall or simply slow again, the fed will be in a position by the fall of this year to react to the data as it comes through the door we're watching pce, and also the way things fall from here. >> all right david, you are just morgan's asset management global market

stra strategist given everything you've told me what should people be thinking about for an asset that will perform well this year. >> on the equity side of things, you know, we remain of the view it's the nominal story that matters. when you look at the sectors that have a lot of sensitivity to the nominal story, right, they have a lot of operating leverage, we believe those companies will be able to generate earnings going forward and we continue to see opportunity in things thik the serials on the fixed side of thing, i think everyone could agree the goal is slower rowth rates have come in a bit over the past couple days, but still far higher than when they started the year, so back in

during ace so what is interesting about this environment is a lot of us as investors have never been dealt a hand, a hawkish fed. that doesn't mean there are not opportunities. it just means the opportunities exist in places where they haven't for the past cycle as we're talking, u.s. mortgage rates plunged to 5.3. malcolm, i wonder whether it's that or, you know, a lot of the hopeful -- a lot of the doves are looking at break-evens and argue that gives us comfort. does it? or is there something mechanical going on >> in the tips market, there's definitely liquidity issues. you can't take the market at face value, but there has been a repricing of expectations for sure when you look at nom nat rates and think they might go lower

from here, and we great with in a, it's really real rates that seem like they're too high break evens are essentially pricing in once you get beyond the next couple years of a fed that achieves its targets, some forward break-evens are levels consistent with the target the fed has done its job of getting those expectations back down, and there's risks they can take things too far. right now if you think about a slowdown and compare the views of potential recession to where real rates are, it's real rates that are still too high, not break-evening. good stuff, michael pond, david lebovitz, we thank you very much. prime minister boris johnson announcing his resignation earlier today. our steve sedgwick is live from

london with the latest steve? >> reporter: david, it's been a slow-burning crisis for pretty much most of this year concerning the leadership of boris johnson. it started to trickle tuesday night with seniors resigning, including the exchecquer boris johnson's position became untenable. literally about 2 1/2 hours ago, boris johnson announced the inevitable and resigned. he blamed a herd instinct in westminster, of supporting ukraine, swift delivery of

vaccines over covid and about his ambitions to level up the country economically his detractors are upset, because it seems he wants to carry on as a caretaker prime minister until another leader is voted in that process we no can be elongated, it could take up until october. very unsettling. already it seems he's trying to elongate his stay. a he has said he thinking it's unwise for boris johnsing to remain in place as a charactertakerchar prime minister it could be a very olongated process as well, because there

are no clear successor to boris johnson, carl, the likes of the foreign secretary, the likes of a home secretary, former boris johnson senior jeremy hunter as well there are plenty of names out there who are in a vying position to take over for boris johnson. >> steve, the whole world today is quite a morning of political turmoil. as we go to break, a road map for this hour. plus the consumer recessionary shift we'll talk about the move to value-based shopping amid inflationary headwinds. and stay on top of the cryo volatility some crypto-linked names actually all on pace for a positive wk.ee a lot more "squawk on the street" continues in a moment.

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united micron up over 6%, taiwan semiconductors up nearly 7%, but samsung posted a narrow sales beat, operating profit came in lower than expected. 60% of samsung's operating profit comes from memory chips that deceleration could signal worse times ahead, especially if you consider micron's weaker forecast over concerns of weakening demand amd flagged a slowdown and intel's ceo said the second half of the year had gotten noisier, and the company would look to align spending they felt about 12% last month from a year ago, and d-ram customers are sitting on two-month supply of inv inventory, so why buy more?

the top holding there for caterpillar and deere, which both touched 52-week lows this week, steve altman from jeffries let's start there with deere and cat, two big components you cover. is it appropriate for them to hit new 52-week lows >> yeah, we don't think so we really like the commodity we think they're the best store of value. >> really haven't changed at

all. we remain bullish on these names. >> where things stand right now, despite whatever we may be see, the production will continue to be strong? >> this is a really weird cycle, because backlogs are at record levels for literally every company i cover. we've never seen that before going into a recession, if that's what's happens. these guys have 9 to 12 months of solid backlog across the board, and it's going to take a while to get through that. obviously there's supply constraints here, so they pushed some of that back to the right,

but really you're going goods to -- >> that would seem to indicate at the market has this wrong, that we're not going to have a recession in your opinion? again, it goes back to what ear talking about, fairly strong >> yeah, that's our view obviously it's risky to second-guess the market here, but that's what we try to do look, there's a number of really interesting dynamics here. i think this could be the first cycle where we have a consumer recession, but not an industrial recession. the reason is we're starting from a modest starting point we don't have a lot of froth to work off we have these long backlogs, but more importantly there's demand drivers really probably support the industrials.

>> steve, appreciate it, thank you. bitcoin bounced back, the cryptocurrency still trying to recover. still holding 20k. we'll stake on top of the rally this morning the dow session high was plus 296. dow is up 150. don't go anywhere. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

keeping an eye on chinese ev maker, higher after the chinese government said it would extend tax breaks, and extending the charging facilities. so they're all up cenily we're back in two.

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good morning, here is your cnbc news update at this hours

the biden administration is giving nearly $1 billion to airports the grants announced are the first installment of $5 billion for airport projects included in the bill that was sign last year vision officials claimed she vape cartridges in her luggage grinders's second court appearance since her trial began last friday. she could face up to ten years in prison if convicted of drug smuggling charges. the last surviving member of easy company that was portrayed in "band of brothers" has died at the age of 97 years old he is survived by his two daughters and ten grandchildren.

back to you, carl. we're trying to put together four straight wins top sectors let by energy. technology not doing too bad vix below 26 is going to be the lowest for the vix in almost a mo month. meantime, galaxy digital ceo joining us, saying he believes we're most of the way through deleverages. i think most of the deleveraging is out of the system we're engaged in a lot of conversations around people who needed capital the new capital coming into crypto will be recapping some of these companies, or asset sales, and so we're going to go sideways could we go lower? of course we could it feels like we're 0% through that

the proo pro problem to is to go higher, you need capital to pick up, and new capital to come in >> guys, great to see you both now we have a couple days, jill, where we talked about most of the deleveraging taking place. do you think that's true >> i think it's absolutely true, but i think the question is not whether most of the deleverages has taken place, but what would be the catalyst here for the market to rebound and take off while we may have reached the bottom in terms of deleveraging, we very much still have that as an open-ended question personally i think it's going to be a long grind back out >> john, do you think in the court of that long grind we wind up with some systemic blowups? it three arrows meaningful in

your view? >> i think over the next three to four weeks it's pretty critical to see if that contagion risk can be contained, if new capital comes into the system, if it can buffer some of those companies or have another voyager type of situation here, so i think the next three to four weeks are critical. i think a lot of the concerns, as we drag on further, those risks become more and more mitigated. i think over the longer term, you certainly could be in a situation where you're starting to close that bottom the next three to four weeks i think will be pretty important. >> jill, on that same subject, those of us who have been around a long time, shouldn't have seen leverage on leverage do you think we're done similarly? is there still a lack of transparency that will surprise us as we continue to unwind?

>> as was just said, the next three to four weeks will be critical in terms of what else shakes out, but i do think this period has proven to be the critical moment of that shakeout you know, as you say, i think this has caught the industry a bit too much by surprise i think that it's not lost on many of us in the industry that here bitcoin was created post-2008, in the wake of all of the financial contagion over leveraging happening then, and created somewhat as a response to that. here we have kind of re-created that as an industry. i do think it's worth mentioning and noting that most of that contagion, most of that over-leveraging has happened within centralized institutions working around the industry, not in the protocols, which by and large among the blue chips in that area, have withstood the

battering. >> john, jill talked about a catalyst everyone does a recapitalized industry sort of provide that kind of catalyst? how long will that process going to take? >> it would. i think it would, but that's going to take time, right? that retail investor appetite, we have certainly seen a lot of that come out. you also have a more challenging macro backdrop now, so it may take more time, but i think, you know, over the next three months, six months, you could start to see some catalyst emerge, and get things going again, but i think certainly over the next month or so, we have real appetites come out, and it's going to take time to regain that. >> so, john, and this point if you're confident in the longer-term trend, do you prefer the currency or platforms? >> well, i think, you know, it

depends. it's going to be different, depending on the investor. for the equity folks out there, coinbase is still an attractive opportunity, volumes historically for coinpapers and other cryptocurrencies, typically about 12 months from their peak, so we're coming up on that period now so we're getting close i think a lot of the concern with coinbase and other exchanges and other equities linked to the space is volumes have come down a lot you are to the point we've been talking about earlier, you're getting close to the bottom. historically vgts you've had the bottom around now. you can't get to that bottom once again the macro backdrop looks a little different, but call can q3, maybe q4 you could see them pick up again coinbase should do well. >> jill, any perusal of these bankruptcy filings, a lot of

roads lead to mr. bankman-fried, how important is this guy? >> the warren buffett of crypto, right? >> yeah. >> he's also proven to be in a strategic position for himself and ftx, also proving to be in a critical position. there are reporters, of course, who are well positioned to be able to bail out companies and prop up the industry, as it were here, but, you know, he's been one of the most vocal about it, and it's based in reality he is one of the most well positioned. >> john, i wonder how you think about his influence relatively to the potential influence of legacy financials, you know, reports that goldman had looks at celsius assets. what are the odds of hearing about a deal from legacy finance, say, by the end of the

jeer >> i think the odds are increased dramatically if they wanted to see that over the last two, three years, this is their best chance to do it. >> so i think the. >> that's something to wack in the back six months. john, jill, good to see you both thanks so much we're going to stick with crypto the miners rode the bull market to the top, now facing a number of problems that may add to selling pressure kate rooney explains >> source that i've been talking to, a lot of people are not watching the mining companies,

so these take a look, though, year to date marathon, all down about 80% they've had to spend big on hardware and facilities. they took out a lot of loans in order to do that a lot of case were based by the mining riggs voyager and three arrows filing for bankruptcy, borrowing from others is no longer an option. we have rates going up wall street banks have avoided lending to crypto companies altogether, and then, of course the drop in bitcoin prices is hurting margins.

and the miners altogether holding $1.8 million individual bitcoin, according to daughters from glasnost. core scientific, for example, sold most of the bitcoin holding, cashed out about $167 million, that went in part to service debt data also shows them selling at report levels. they're not being shopped around by now, we may see more m&a and consolidation in this space. back to you. kate, thank you. as we head to a break, the top gainers on the s&p this morning. the index is up almost a full 1%, led by on semi, chips have been fairly strong this morning,

given that guidance we got from samsung. we're back in three.

retail outlet centers says value-based shopping is now top of mind. nice to have you this morning. what are you seeing from the consumer more focused on coming to an outlet to get a better price >> i think so. first, thanks for having me back on the show. again i was in a lot of our shopping centers over the weekend. the retailers, there's a lot of inventory in the stores. the savvy retailers are a lot more promotional than this time last year is the bogo. in order to extend that value to

the consumer the retailers pushing through more inventory. >> you know, you're a public company, i don't know if you'll tell me specifics, but are you seeing more traffic? >> so far year to date they've been consist president with where they were this time last year, which i think is a good sign for us. what i'm seeing, particularly over the course of the last weekend is there's a lot of product moving through the stores the customer is definitely building bigger baskets. we're not see a tremendous amount of growth from the growth but seeing a lot more product. >> i assume all of this, steven, is centered around apparel, though i see athleta announcing

adding some stores this week >> we're looking forward to the second half of the year. we think there will be plenty of inventory. if this weekend was any indication, there's a lot more to come. we're optimistic about that. at the beginning of the show, you said value retail is a consumer looking for value retail our customer is a value shopper, but they're not necessarily looking for commodity at the lowest price what they are looking for is their favorite brands. a lot of retailers are looking to add stores in our space, which is terrific. a lot of the brands, athleisure brands, a lot of hard goods brands, some brands that haven't typically been in the outlet space before, now they're looking for a space to extent their omnichannel system. >> not that it's necessarily your universe, how do you think it's all comparing with what's

happening in more urban markets? >> i think they're definitely making the trip. for us, people talk about the drive times in the outlet center, people moving from urban markets, moving out to more of the suburban markets, those centers are definitely benefiting from that flow of traffic. we're seeing that. we're seeing some of the more touristic location, i think last year was a big year for american drive to i think we're competing with people going back to europe, people doing farther traveling, but i think people there's definitely a bennett >> where are you on occupancy rate these days? in the high 90s? mid 90s? >> about mid 90s, we pushed up over 200 basis points from the

last occupancy numbers we gave versus last year a lots of that is coming with new deal flow across all channels of distribution, i think outlets are becoming increasingly more important, especially in the direct-to-consumer space, so those brands that have started out natively online, which is more bricks-and-mortar selling, now starting to discover the outlet space i think a lot of those direct-to-consumers brands will help us grow our occupiesie over the months and years now. >> it's weird to think about how recently we were talking about supply chain, that you couldn't find the apparel you wanted. we were worried about vietnam, production was slowing down. i have to imagine for outlets, i mean, the selection, the availability of things in your size, in the style that you want

has to have improved dramatically year on year. >> yeah, it definitely has all you have to do is look in the store, walk the properties, that really benefits the shoppers that's why we're seeing customers, people coming back, building bigger baskets. we see them joining our tanker loyalty club, which is important, too, because there's additional values that these shoppers can get by being a member of the tanker rewards and loyalty. >> stephen, thanks for the update. >> i appreciate you having me on thanks. coming up at the top of the hour on "techcheck," we're going to talk tiktok, and the data dilemma as more lawmakers raise concerns one of the few bipartisan issues there is on the hill right in and out. as for markets, back to session highs. we're just hanging out in the high 3800s stay with us

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welcome back, i am dominic, markets are higher today with the major average tracking for weekly gains at this point. every sector, as you can see behind me is trading in positive territory, the only exception, consumer stable down about 1%. every constituent of that group, and the s&p 500 is up at least a percent or so, the largest gains coming in names like apa corp., marathon oil and diamondback energy. those explorers and producers of oil, the volatility comes among some of the big swings in oil prices which are now back above that $100 per barrel, both benchmarks had the lowest level since april just in yesterday's session.

keep an eye on that trade. there is more squawk on the street coming up after this. stay right here with us. will be back after this commercial break. hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened!

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