they are hoping they ignored -- mailed a soft landing here.

i think, you know, we will learn over the next six months whether inflation is actually tempered by this reduction in demand, or whether it continues unabated, because, and i think there is reasons to think that inflation will continue because it is not just demand, a form of excess demand, it is really a supply problem as well. i think we are going to see, could we end up with a scenario, where you have a recession at the same time, and pretty high inflation. if we have that kind of scenario, i think will be pretty bad for both stocks. >> that is an area that has held up, b2b software has held up particularly well, it is sort of that more traditional legacy, b2b software, in a lot of places, how are we going to see this macro impact on b2b, and what do you think is the

base expectation, i remember ibm's, see po telling me that he expects software growth to be about 4%. >> currently the company is going about 20% year-over-year. we will see if that goes down. the way it would happen, they are somewhat inflated but not completely, so if for example you saw a few weeks ago, dora wrote that famous memo where he came back for me on wall street and he had religion around cost- cutting. he said we have to get positive and we need to sharpen our pencils, that include software. companies like uber which are exposed to the consumer, which the consumer is now sort of the unprecedented dropping the consumer confidence in the consumer will basically reflect the slowdown first so the

companies who are leveraging the consumer are going to become sharpening their pencils, one of the things they will look to cut will be optional software purchases. software that is more vitamins, so we are going to get basically, a sorting of software companies over the next six months, to see whose products are actually mission- critical and whose are sort of optional because i do think that companies will start to sharpen their pencils and look at their costs. >> that is interesting. that is exactly what they argue today, they cut targets on a bunch of names, but they say a meaningful slowdown, david, unlikely to occur until q1, would you give it that much time? >> i am in the part of the economy which is reacting right away. in my pocket, of the economy, which is sort of open valley, early-stage growth companies, there has been a huge adjustment and these have really slammed on the brakes, and every board meeting, the conversation is the same, which is how much do we cut? do we freeze the earning plans?

so there is already i think fast action in the part of the ecosystem that i am in which is why i have been staying here and saying for so many months that we are headed for a big slowdown. i think it is the canary in the coal mine. the larger more inflated companies like you mentioned the ibm's and so forth, it may take them six months to get the memo. i think the slowdown has already started. >> your point about supply and the fed is interesting, we can all imagine how that might take place but the fed has already said, we can help slowdown demand, when it comes to supply, you kind of have to get lucky. what would their playbook be if the scenario you put forward came about. >> the fed can reduce interest rates and i don't think this is purely caused by excess demand. certainly there wasn't overstimulation of the economy, the administration sent out

those checks and that is a problem. reducing some of that demand will impact and reduce inflation. however, we also have this problem of almost record low participation and the labor force, that is a big problem that has not gone away. that has created a lot of wage pressure in certain parts of the economy. we have this problem of commodity prices which is being exacerbated by the war in ukraine. unless you get some fundamental resolution, on energy prices, on food prices, which again is not entirely caused by ukraine but exacerbated by that, i don't know how this merely reducing demand will completely solve that problem. i think you could see a situation in which we get a recession but you still have inflation. that would be the 1970s situation. >> that would be a worst-case scenario. before we let you go, i want to go back to that idea of sharpening pencils at this moment or cutting costs, if you do this at the earlier stage, whether it is the republic companies like a zoo, or in the

private market, isn't this what the plot forms, the sweeps, are waiting for. microsoft in the crm's for these companies to stop focusing on growth at all cost and scale back, doesn't keep -- that give them an opportunity? >> perhaps. i mean that the microsoft bundle is a powerful weapon, in fact i think it is so powerful and the e- five bundle, what they basically do is every year they throw in a new product like they will throw in the zoom clone or the slack clone, and because it is part of a bundle, the enterprises are essentially getting that marginal product for free but then microsoft increases the price of the bundle the next year. i think it is anticompetitive. this would be a legitimate area for authorities to look at, so i don't know if i completely answered your question, but there could be some issues like that. >> that is interesting.

it is a tough backdrop to fight against if you are one of the smaller guys. david, always great to get your insights, thank you. >> and more venture capital news, another executive shuffle at softbank, he is stepping back from his main roles of the company to launch his own multibillion-dollar fund and this comes after a string of other high-profile departures including marcello, these are executives that were seen as potential successors to him, they will continue to run the first vision funds investments, while he himself i am told will take on a more direct leadership role and vision fun , funds like many in tech, division funds, that is, are getting hit very hard in the space, remember the softbank, they led the fundraiser a year ago, they valued at more than $45 billion, that now reportedly looking to raise a

$6 billion valuation, another big haircut, similar actually to what we saw at we work division fund invests late day, that is a tough place to be right now, junkyard >> maybe 6.5, don't begrudge them, that is 6.5. who owns your data, when it comes to privacy laws, the answer might not be what you expect. we will discuss, next. [sfx: street ambience] ♪ ["fly me to the moon"] ♪ ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and

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to analyst bullish on the company out of earnings next week, morgan stanley reiterating the overweight 157 target, pointing out it is the best performing stock in their coverage, outperforming the s& p, and then goldman adding the company to a list of tactical traits, predicting upside from an elevated demand environment, although analysts are keeping an eye on the margins and made the inflationary pressures, they do expect the stock to continue to outperform shares higher today, john, it was katie, maybe six months ago said good place to hide. >> dividend yield, popular

again all of a sudden. meanwhile, do you ever wonder where your data is being held? probably not. our next guest takes a closer look at tiktok, speaking to the company's head of global cyber and data defense who assured him that no one is going to the length that we are to understand where data is, and who has access to it. social media giant, did premise back in june, bus featured news reported that data had been repeatedly accessed from china. lawmakers are pushing the ftc to investigate the issues but without ... editor and cnbc, casey newton, welcome.

that is exactly right, sean, you think about all of the sensitive data that these tech companies know about us and there are almost no national laws regulating how they use that data. there are these giant data brokers companies that can justify up essentially whatever they want to know about us and use it however they like. i think there is a lot of appropriate attention on tiktok and with the chinese government may or may not have access to. until we have a national privacy law, every tech company will find itself in the situation that some point. >> not only a national privacy law but doesn't there have to be a way of auditing this in some way? it is one thing to say, you can't share data on u.s. citizens outside of u.s. soil, but how do you check and make sure? >> that is right. it is really comp located. as an american citizen, having a conversation with a chinese citizen on tiktok, who owns that data? there are going d not

just have to take their word for it. >> casey, as you have been talking about it, it is so hard to understand who is accessing data. that is what another chinese company cannot sell 5g to the major carriers or in some countries as a whole picture the same rules have been applied to tiktok, much earlier, not letting it be allowed to be listed in apple or google app stores, is it too late to put that genie back in the bottle? >> president biden said earlier this year that he was going to conduct a review of a larger number of chinese companies, tiktok included, and try to set up some sort of chronicles, i think this is a complicated one, and reasonable people will disagree, but look, what the critics say at the end of the day is right, it is going to be extremely hard probably impossible for the tick-tock's owner to reject a request from the chinese government, if and when the time came. they will tell you up and down that they absolutely never would, practically though, it is difficult to understand how they would resist and for that

reason i think a lot of people have legitimate concerns here. >> even if you take them off the stores now, people will get around it to access it, but casey, do you think at least the groundwork is being laid now so that maybe the next popular chinese app will have more trouble gaining traction? tiktok has really been the first and only one to become so popular, do you think it could happen again? >> from the moment it does seem like it is a one off and after tiktok really took off, china undertook a massive ... which is probably making it a loss , all of that said though, the regulations in the united states really haven't changed at all. if there were some entrepreneur in china wanted to create a new social lab and on-chip here, it wouldn't face much pushback. >> all of this being said, casey, this week there is this massive trove of data on

chinese users, that was exposed, and i am not sure, it wasn't like it was a u.s. company that sucked up this data or anything. are we paying too much attention to the obvious thing? obvious big chinese company that potentially has data on u.s. citizens. we would want the chinese to get their hands on that but there are plenty of other data troves that are not being protected well enough that if you are china, sure, maybe focus on tiktok over here, meanwhile we can get what we want elsewhere because the data policies in the u.s. are not tight enough. >> that is exactly right, and it is clear that there are multiple ongoing operations coming from china, the united states, the fbi issued a warning last night about the use of this new maui ran somewhere that is out there, so clearly the cyberspace is extremely hot right now, for these kinds of you know, influence operations, and other

attacks, and so you know, let's hope our lawmakers and wrong -- regulars are paying close attention your. >> casey, thank you. still to come this morning, is amazon the most risky name to hold thisuaer r xt guest seems to think so. find out why, after the break. nope. how do we show that we'll stand tall through the storms? nah. (thunder) how do we make our clients feel secure and- ugh... not lions. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people. people who've been looking after people for over 170 years.

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welcome back, i am christina, with your cnbc news update. first-time claims for jobless benefits rose by 4000 last week, to a total of 235,000. that is a possible sign of a cooling labor market along with the monthly challenger report

showing layoffs at a 16 month high. we will get a fresh look at the state of the labor market tomorrow morning when the government releases the june employment report. the u.s. trade deficit now $85.5 billion, the gap was kept in check by record x the u.s. to other countries, while imports rose by a much smaller amount. >> the import growth has been cooling off as the fed raises interest rates to combat inflation. american airlines will pay pilots triple their normal pay to work flights that were left shortstaffed by a computer glitch. the glitch allowed pilots to opt out of future trips resulting in more than 12,000 scheduled flights without a captain, or first officer, or both. there you have it. back over to you guys. christina, thank you. one of many risk popping, with the nasdaq up 1.5%. game stop, the company now a4 for one stock split going into effect july 22, shares have been

performing in nasdaq since january but still more than 50 , this morning up almost 9%, we will be back, right after this. look how nice they are. the moment you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those, lovely, lemony, lemons. ♪ and never wonder if you got a good deal. because you did. ♪

kid names are rallying today, more than 3.5%, check out samsung, a bellwether for demand getting water to --

christina joins us for the breakdown. >> samsung posted its best second quarter since 2018 providing some relief for other chipmakers like now up about 6%, we are seeing taiwan semiconductor and so they are seeing this as good news for the sector but like you mentioned, are they getting ahead of themselves? samsung posted a narrow sales be an operating profit came in lower than expected. 60% of samsung's off trading profit comes from the ram chips and a deceleration is occurring and that could signal worse times ahead. the prices for example saw 12 percent last month from a year ago and customers are sitting on two months supply on average so they, if they have the supply, wi-fi more. that is why other firms are learning about the second half of this year. concerns of weakening demand and they flagged the slowdown

in sales and they said the second half of this year had gotten a lot noisier over the previous months. the company would also look to align spending. today's samsung sales outlook what is better than fear but that could be backward looking rather than a forward indica -- indicator. >> christina, thank you. we are getting closer to he next round of tech earnings, inflationary pressure, softening consumer demand, potential recession just some of the risks and focus, our next guest remaining cautious, cutting estimates across the board, joining us this morning, analyst mark, it is great to have you. you point out you guys came into the year pretty cautious, but she basically now are dividing the sector into three baskets depending on whether they are the most or least resistance to recession. >> so, yes, thanks, you are right about that. there are estimates across the board, there is some industry

of vertical specific data, we had a negative prerelease, there was some caution over the next 12 months, that said, they are not a huge ton for that industry data point, it is because of the macro pressures that we are all looking at and what has happened to the dollar as well. many of these names have dramatic international exposure. we cut the estimate by 5 to 10%, across-the-board, some names that should hold up the larger advertising platforms that are more performance marketing geared, kugel, -- google, i would cut for like 10%, there are discretionary retail names, there is a few of these like it should be the case across the

board. we have had a dramatic d rating, now it is time for the estimate to come down, when that happens and wasted we start getting beyond peak interest rate fears, then you can have a really nice rally in the sector. we want to be prepared for that. >> mark, give us a moment to adjust some of your audio and see if we can optimize that, in the meantime, that last basket, the market was referencing, names like uber, air b&b, dash, and roku once which is one of the more tactical moves but those are the names john where mark says you need to see what i guess chair powell would call convincing evidence that inflation is moderated. >> i know we are working on his audio, something i am looking forward to discussing with him when we can, how much has the narrative shifted around the potential of these companies, right? and where they are not going to

be what we initially thought they were going to be because the technology doesn't work, etc. how much of it is just about the wait is going to be longer because of the conditions and with that, we will go ahead and take a break, with the major indices rallying, the dow is up more than 200 points, the s&p, 1%, the nasdaq up 1.5. will be right back.

let's bring back in mark who as we said cut estimates across the board in the interim sector, joining us on the phone now, i am curious about how you are viewing travel right now because you do include airbnb in that aggressive beta basket with some risk to recession but you did make a tactical call on booking in the other direction. how do you square those? >> these are really nuanced calls, there is no doubt that leisure travel is having a huge banner summer, they were very few, very few companies and consumer tech that had upwards estimates off the large quarter, booking a airbnb, were two of them, the stocks kept up and then faded, i wouldn't be surprised to see the exact same replay this quarter, i think both of these companies especially booking will have upside the street estimates, and then they may fade off that, because when it comes to the next year, these aren't 22 recession stocks, leisure travel

is a discretionary category so we would expect that to get cut as we go into next year. that is what we try to do with the earnings estimates here, the question is whether that will probably happen and make the stock safer but in the meantime, you have a very good bulletproof balance sheet of battle tested management team, highly profitable business, trading with cash flow, and it can hold up well even in the tough macroenvironment like this. >> more broadly, the tech trade has reversed so quickly this year, what is the risk that investors are actually underweight heading into the earnings season, is that potentially why we are seeing a rebound in growth in tech over the last few days? >> that could be. what we started over this year, overrated over, we try to be cautious, obviously not cautious enough, entering the year but we try to be cautious knowing that we had they rising inflation raised rate and what has come clear in the last three months is the recession risk, that is a huge call in the negatives, for the consumer

tech and it has folded, at some point that will reversed and i am not sure you will get that off the june quarter results. i think you could get that off the september quarter results and i am also assuming that by that time we will start to see moderation in inflation and will be peak interest rate fears for the sector because it does impact long-duration assets like what you see in a lot of tech. that is kind of the set appear. i am so cautious going into this print and i'm hoping we can get to the other side, really across consumer tech, let's get it over sooner rather than later. >> i want to check in on the thesis on internet consumer tech in general, two years ago, there was talk about a multiple year's worth of growth, squeezed into one year, on the channel, the internet was the future of buying, etc., to what extent has anything happened that has changed that fundamental premise, and the value of the technology that

these company have to what degree has had macroenvironment adjusted the evaluations and such will have to wait longer for that to play out then you might have expected? >> i like the way you set that up, i will give you three examples here. first is jordache, all my delivery which was so early on in the s-curve, of adoption that when you had covid-19 come along, it's sort of accelerated it into the mainstream, so you could grow during covid-19 and post covid-19, then you get into a name like amazon which is 15% or 20% of retail sales are online. the demand was pulled forward and we have this spike up in 2020 that moderated in 2021 but the path there of online retail sales migration, i think that is well intact. i think that is underappreciated about amazon. i think we will see premium growth for that as we work through the recession for amazon, and the last stop to think about is netflix which just pulled forward to

maturity, it had 60% of households, and so it depends where you were and that s-curve of adoption, that determines what happens here, more important, but what happens to the growth rate post covid-19. >> you just summed up a lot of what we have been to the last couple years, and we will learn a lot more in the coming weeks, mark, appreciate it very much. appreciated you expanding on that. let's get a gut check on fun, city/estimates across the coverage of entertainment bracing for a recession that could drive decline in consumption trends. streamers like netflix, paramount, warner bros. discovery, seeing price targets cut across the board, and adjusting earnings estimates as the firm gets more bearish on names, saying they are more exposed to consumer pullbacks, guys? it is an interesting landscape there. >> yep, the same will continue to fall and that is the take, but what about sun valley, a lot to talk about some media

this year, julia is live from sun valley with her. julia? >> reporter: we are hearing a lot here in sun valley, about an advertising slogan, telling us his big blue brand clients see flashing yellow warning lights and as they pull back, he expects the lengths of meta to lose ground to retailers. >> now when you think about the retail networks, the walmarts, the amazons, the targets, those groups of huge retail networks, it is the point of purchase for marketers, they are taking more from the other players. >> echoing that, icco, joey, told us he also sees advertisers pulling back but

the tech market provides fantastic opportunity for them to pick up some public company assets. >> this is the first time in a very long time, years, like five years at least where there is real opportunity in the public markets, and we just, we have not seen that, the math didn't work for us for a while to buy a growing business, with big upside, because all of the upside was already priced in and none of the execution was there yet. >> there is one potential set of assets in the spotlight here, and that is nfl rights commissioner rodrick arrived here in sun valley yesterday, and sources say that apple, disney, and amazon have all submitted bids for nfl sunday ticket rights, and apple is seen as the front runner, especially on the heels of this, baseball and major league soccer deals, tim cook, and eddie are here as well. i am getting, hearing a lot of

talk here in sun valley that has sports is the most reliable content and so the tech giants are going to be willing to pay up for it. scott? >> julia, i also wonder whether the advertising landscape has shifted away from meta-, in favor of some of these content players, who are saying that there is a sense that even though it wasn't as popular as it was and maybe there is a bit of lack of quality happening. >> i have been asking a lot of questions about what has been going on with mehta, mark is here, we haven't seen him yet but he is on the list. facebook, i think there is this question of whether or not mehta is going to be able to really navigate over the long- term, those targeting headwinds as a result of apple's

operating system changes, and also some ad targeting changes from google as well. >> as they compete for some of those ad dollars, i think it is great to point out what he did about the retailers, like amazon, which is a growing player in the ad space, a kind of opportunity that amazon,, and target have right now. >> absolutely. thank you. we are going to get a check on two software names, can accord initiating flunked and paid her duty. the bull cases here, they see

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overvalued or undervalued, we take a look at sophia, asking the question, should we value the company as a bank or a tech company, it is merely to reflect more reasonable near term upsides and current levels, stocks falling about 60% for the year, in fact they think it may be undervalued with plenty

they want to be the one stop shop. not all of them can. maybe sofi represents the best chance of that. >> i appreciate the balance of this note. but especially in this market, valuing something versus peers, i don't know. that makes me wonder. when you think about what the value really is, how good is the technology? how good is the interface versus the overall market? that to me makes a lot more sense because as you can see, all the peers and everything have tumbled. so value versus peers. a moving target. >> may be the user interface. that is key for customers using and switching to an online bank, whether that's through chase or marquez or sophia.

meanwhile, crypto lenders continue to flop along with prices. one key figure, the merge to help stabilize the ecosystem, here's some fried. yesterday we talked about his role and it's kind of difficul , the liquidation process. >> we got a lot of information on the bankruptcy filing on tuesday night and sang beckman freed has come the industry lifeline but one of his companies will major tickle leg major loss. voyager filed for chapter 11 in tuesday night. alameda, that's sam beckman fried company. alameda was one of voyager's largest shareholders with about a 9.5% equity stake in the

company. alameda was also a creditor. his company provided a loan made up of crypto and cash and it was worth $500 million. voyager drew on that $75 million and legal analysts are telling it's unlikely alameda will recoup that credit line. that money may be wiped out in voyager restructuring. on top of all of that, alameda was also a customer and borrow 376 $.8 million worth of cryptocurrencies from voyager and the interest rate was between one and 11.5%. we saw some other outstanding loans in these bankruptcy documents. another high profile borrowing we talked about. three arrows capital which was a big part of voyager's downfall in the first place. three arrows owns more than $650 million to voyager. defaulted on that back in late june and jenna says as long as mike no regrets's voyager digital. alameda has already

put hundreds of million dollars in emergency loans and various crypto companies. block phi, in an interview with reuters, sam bankman-fried says his company still have quote, a few billion on hand to help struggling crypto firms and if the worst of the liquidity crunch is likely past. but his role here highlights all of the links between his crypto firm, guys, and the lending and shows what some are calling recycled capital within the space. >> recycle. no idea where it's going or where is come from. kate, when you look ahead, we have been so focused on the crypto lenders, was another area that you think is starting to show cracks or whether that will be there crypto minors or the stable going? >> it's interesting. to minors is one of the big areas that folks have been

talking about. that's a question, what's the next shoe to drop? where should we be looking? crypto minors have come under a ton of focus and scrutiny lately partially because of the lending. they are capital intensive. they have needed to borrow a lot of money and it's often been from those crypto companies, the crypto lenders that are now in that liquidity crunch. the capital is not there tomorrow. interest rates are a lot higher. wall street wants nothing to do with the crypto minors or crypto companies in general so they have been cut off from some of the credit they have used in the past to go. you have lower bitcoin prices. higher energy prices, so they are facing what some have said is a perfect storm. those companies under pressure, i would watch that space for potentially more m and a and consolidation. >> if you're looking for more crypto content, tune into crypto world for the latest news and market ti. 00acon3: p.m. eastern time. cnbc.com/crypto world. dow is up to 40. back in a moment.

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news on someone we do cover a lot, but not the type of news we talk about a lot. business insider first reported yesterday that elon musk had twins last year with one of his

top executives. it's a court filing in texas that it had seen the executive worked for musk and your link, that's his private neural tech company. confirmed the news this morning tweeting quote, i'm doing my best to help the under population crisis. he had another child last year with the singer grimes as well. john. >> this is a different company from spacex. where a flight attendant has alleged that he propositioned her. so musk, a lot of companies that have a lot of human resources challenges. this does not appear to be a human resources challenge exactly. well, one more thing. that is tech security. a very different note. the fbi and mi five issuing a warning on chinese espionage. especially when it comes to tech companies' intellectual property. christopher wray thing the chinese government is set on

stealing your technology, whatever it is that makes your industry tick and using it to undercut your business. one way to protect yourself, a new feature from apple. the company announcing new lock download feature from iphones to protect high-profile users and business executives and maybe journalists. protect them from state- sponsored attacking. >> very busy morning so far. those oil inventories were a surprise. we are close to session highs. 38.90. speaks in an hour. in front of that, the judge is back. let's get to the half. welcome to the halftime report. front and center this hour, the road ahead for stocks. is it getting rockier or rosier with the major averages on pace now for the longest winning streak since march? we debate that with the investment committee. joined me for the hour today, josh brown, steve white. john and jerry, founders of market rebellion right here on set. let's check the market. is 12 noon in the east. see where we are. pretty much of the highs as carl said of the day. positive day today would tie the current s&p 500 wi