earnings momentum has returned somewhat an opportunity to trade higher you will get good news from trials in the fourth quarter. >> thank you dr. j. >> crocs, scott. just a couple days ago it was given a big thumbs up. up $10 bang >> real quick name, josh >> ieo. >> good stuff. >> welcome back. >> see you and thank you see you in "the ot." "the exchange" is now. and we'll be talking more about crocs, scott thanks i'm kelly evans. here is what's ahead on "the exchange." another rebound in stocks. the nasdaq the biggest gainer as it tries for a four session win streak we'll look at what's prompting this change in sentiment and where the best opportunities are. plus, we can't have a recession if the jobs market stays this tight. but will it? we'll look ahead to tomorrow's big jobs report and what the uptick in layoff announcements mean oil bouncing back strongly

commodities have been creamed lately we'll get you the stats, the story and the trade on oil, metals and more. but first, dom chu has our latest markets >> the numbers are bouncing back across the board we've had a sell-off in many parts of the market, kelly the stock market notwithstanding, the dow industrials up 270 points. about almost one full percentage point. 38.94 overall as it disappears a little bit it's up 48 points. this is near the highs of the session. at the highs we're up right now roughly 51 points. at the lows we're still up 13. to if igive you an idea of the trading range. the real outperformer up about 2% right now, 229 points for the composite index. 11,591 the last trade there. one big reason for that nasdaq outperformance the tech-heavy nature of the index. semiconductors after samsung and

south korea announced results better than some analysts expected the forecast for the current quarter revenues and profits coming in better as well that's helping to lift semiconductor chip makers especially in asia in the u.s. you have qualcomm among the u.s. traded stocks catching a bit on the back of the forecast from samsung all up 5% to 9% on these. on semiconductor the best in the s&p. part of the tech-heavy trade the three most important in the nasdaq and s&p are apple, microsoft and alphabet on a year-to-date basis. the course of the last month or so the rebound we've seen has been significant for apple, kelly, up 13% from the lows we've seen over the course of the last couple of weeks. from microsoft up 11% off the

lows and up 15% for alphabet, the parent company of google as people talk about dip buying, they are starting to see some signs that have in the mega cap tech names back over to you dom, thank you very much with stocks aiming for their first four-day winning streak since late march, is this the relief rally investors have been waiting for? michael santoli has more hi, mike i think relief is leading to some resilience and i would date it back to the week before last. i don't think it's just a four-day story we're up almost 6% gained back less than half of it last week felt awful look at the way it kind of sets up right here. it doesn't look terrible we haven't slipped back to those lows on an interday basis we were lower than today back on may 20th that's six, seven weeks ago. clearly there's been some effort to pick up the pace on the buy now. is this just lucy holding the

football in place until she pulls it away again? this down trend line pretty significant. some other various touch points above the index level right now on the chart around 4,000. that's where you start to say maybe this is something more than another one of these fleeting bouncing. dom was talking about the nasdaq outperformance the nasdaq 100 relative to the s&p, that's been a harder hit area, down 30% from the highs. it's a high beta move. that's not necessarily a formula for new leadership but it shows you maybe a little bit of short-term with bond yields coming down i always say the aggregate risk budget of the market kind of goes up at least a little bit incrementally, kelly. >> and here is one for you on the sentiment side, mike, according to bespoke, one of the longest stretches, five weeks now with less than a quarter of aai respondents bullish on the market i think they said it's the longest stretch since 1993

>> absolutely. if you're making a pro and con list in favor or against equities, sentiment has been in the pro column for quite a long time at least what people are saying and how professional investors are positioned, that's really been all defense for quite a while so i do think it's encouraging. it definitely would seem to limit the down side if you look at how history works on these things it can go for prolonged periods of time. it was a trap in 2008. let's hope we're not back in the situation like that. >> for sure. mike, for now, thank you and my next guest says we are start to go see signs of inflation easing and the economy heading in the right direction he also says the markets will be meaningful higher by year end so the time to buy in is now. let's welcome in david katz. you've been consistent on this lately especially since the last time we spoke. what do you make of the market's early snap back here what do you think is driving it? >> we think the market can see some signs that maybe inflation is starting to break

we think they're going to see more signs the next two weeks f. that happens people will be less worried about the fed's hawkishness for 2023 and that could drive stocks a lot higher. you're not going to know you're in a recovery until the market is 20% higher. you talked about the faang stocks 10% to 15% higher already. the key we think for investor success is to take that 6 to 12 month approach lots of great businesses out there at 11 to 14 times earnings even if the earnings come down a little bit, a good price >> why are the markets hating on the fed so much? they treat this hawkishness like it's last decade and it's not. look how much it's helped financial conditions broadly, inflation since their 75-point basis hike three weeks ago >> if the fed really goes through with the hawkishness they consistently raise rates the next 12 to 18 months it will really hurt the economy and when everybody is negative they're saying it will really hurt the

economy but it's not going to stop inflation, so the glass is empty. we don't think that's the case we think the fed raising rates is actually slowing the economy down, slowing the housing market down, the labor market down and commodities down that's what the fed wants. it's really early on ideally you want the fed to not be as hawkish next year but still have the economy slow and inflation slowed we think that's what's playing out. >> you're going to get a slowdown one way or the other, but you're only going to bring inflation down consistently if you're hawkish enough to convince people it's over. like you said we're not going to know for a little while still but thinking about the labor market, jobless claims remain pretty strong, okay, layoff announcements are up the data points, the wage pressures are still there. how does the strong labor market translate for you into stock picks or investment ideas if we have that bucking what might be

continued declines or negative or weak reports in real gdp? >> we think the labor markets are going to be strong, but they're going to be less inflationary over the next six months in terms of our outlook, our outlook is the economy is doing relatively okay and you can buy stock because we're not going to go into a deep recession even if we have a recession of two negative gdp quarters we think the economy is doing well, consumers are doing well, businesses are doing well. so we look at that in our outlook and we're saying you really want to be buying stocks here and we're comfortable buying technology companies, consumer discretionary companies, companies that are little bit more focused or leveraged to the economy we like fedex. they had a verygood up day earlier last month or late last month. under ten times earnings, focus management on profitability. if we don't go into a deep recession it's a great buy >> a provocative idea. what else in discretionary, there can be lots of different

things in there, and what would you do with consumer staples which was one of the hiding spots, one of the most important trades lately. >> we are using that as a source of funds because they've done exceptionally well they've done their job this is not the time to start playing defense. we think if we're right and the market comes back consumer staples will do well another discretionary stock we like is booking holdings their business has been very good they are a reopening play and buying under 14 times next year's earnings. we think a reasonable economy, the business does well, the stock should do great. the stock is down a third this year even though the business is relatively good. people are traveling >> so booking holdings, declining inflation is generally very bullish for the stock market let me ask you about housing where we've seen the mortgage rates correct by almost a full point from the highs right now who knows if we'll stay here but the stocks are at shockingly cheap forward p/e numbers.

any thoughts >> we don't have a great conviction we think the housing prices are going to start to slow down in terms of their increases we think the housing companies can start to continue building and they should make good money. we don't have a great conviction on the stocks. probably if we're right in our outlook, the housing stocks should be fine we have a higher conviction to buy other areas of the market. >> you mentioned booking is one of your favorites. the airlines have done very poorly lately. would those be a buy for you, even maybe the cruise lines? i can't imagine those debt levels are something you would be comfortable with. >> you're exactly right. absolutely not we try to focus on companies that will add value over time and do okay during a bad xi. the cruise lines very, very leveraged. we just don't want to play that. the same thing with the airlines, we prefer bookings, even when business is slow they're making a lot of money. when business is slow for the airlines, we don't like the

airlines' cost structure in terms of labor cost. we worry about oil prices though ultimately you get relief. much better places to put money. we like the financials better, the faang stocks better, so lots of places. the airlines might do well but we think there are lower risk ways >> that's an important point that you're bullish and what you acknowledge is a slowing growth environment. you want stocks that can do well in a slowing growth environment. it doesn't mean recession. >> that's exactly the case we don't like the 50 times companies, ultra high growth we like a slow growth environment and companies that are going to have an environment 14 times earnings. >> david katz, we'll leave it there. thanks for your time >> thanks a lot. have a great day >> good to see you david katz of matrix advisers. coming up, bitcoin higher today as it tries to get up

above that $20,000 range how crypto miners are faring and why they're adding to the selling pressure on bitcoin. plus, oil and gas, clean energy, metals and mining, all of those areas are higher but well off their recent highs what's driving the action in these three commodity categories the stats, the story and the trades as we head to break let's get a check on the markets with the russell the strongest performer up 2.5%. the dow in the green although underperforming is still up 222 points look at the ten year barely back above 3% at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

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chain down 80% in some cases the first issue here is borrowing. bitcoin mining is really capital intensive. they've had to spend big on hardware and took out loans to compete. those were backed by either bitcoin holdings or the mining rigs borrowing from other crypto companies right now is not an option with this liquidity crunch going on. lending to crypto companies altogether making it more expensive to run the facilities and you have a drop in bitcoin prices hurting margins. the miners now hold an estimated 1.8 million individual bitcoin according to glass note and these issues have forced some of the companies to sell that crypto in order to stay afloat it's been seen as a potential drag core scientific sold most of its holdings back in june cashing out around $167 million worth. data from kcrypto shows di

distressed miners are being shopped around we may see more consolidation in the space. on the heels of voyagers bankruptcy the market is wait to go see who might be the next domino to fall in the crypto world as it reels from insolvency not only has three arrows, it caused others to nearly collapse it has creditors blockchain.com going after three ac and caused genesis to scramble to limit the damage from their exposure one investor blaming the price collapse on over leveraging and had harsh words for the firms involved >> a system that was far too leveraged. shame on lots of the players for running what is just

irresponsible, not just leverage but taking consumer deposits in overnight and lending them out as long as three or four years >> novogratz added he thinks we're partway through now. the director of news at the block. frank, it's good to see you. let's unpackage this piece by piece starting with what kate rooney said about the miners, a surprising source of selling pressure >> yeah. i mean, they're part of this over levered story, right. they borrowed funds to buy the mining rigs and like many traders over levered and now with bitcoin declining they have to navigate this broader deleveraging it's a brutal market i've never seen this amount of leverage sucked out of the system in such a short span of time traders say they have a lot of counter parties that have failed

to your part or we don't know what their status is in terms of their exposure and the degree to which they've engaged with three arrows so it's pretty -- it's a pretty cautious period right now. >> it feels to me like the spring of 2008 where you had the collapse of bear stearns but then this kind of quiet period where everything was fine over the summer and then another wave of selling pressure hit. what are people you talk to say about the way it feels >> i think it's a big wake-up call for people who are in the market you have these firms that, and i remember when i came on a few months ago, you asked a very sharp question where are these yields coming from frankly we should have been asking that question harder and more to these firms. you have voyager, right, which had a 23-1 assets to equity ratio. 60% of their loan book was concentrated in three arrows it looked nice with the juicy

yields behind the scenes in the background was a huge amount of irresponsible risk taking to echo on mike novogratz there we're all asking these questions. the question of trust and whether or not we can trust certain counter parties is at the forefront in a way it's never been at least during this s cycle. >> where do you think the moves are here are they in this for the long run, or should we expect them to start shaking things up even more in the months ahead >> they have about, at least according to sam bank freed, they be in the background. they have their own issues to worry about in terms of getting the cftc approval for their futures offering here in the united states. so i think they're going to balance between being the, quote, unquote, lender of last

resort and trying to navigate the murky regulatory waters. to an extent the sort of demise of many of these firms is a black eye for ftx among regulators it was just reported a few moments ago that fdic is looking into voyagers' marketing on its product, which it kind of misled investors that their funds -- excuse me, usd funds were fdic insured which they totally weren't. they were only insured in the event of their bank running into issues not voyager itself. so i think ftx is in probably the best spot but there's going to be downstream reputational damage that this blowup causes >> sure. here is what voyager said in 2019 in the rare event your usd funds were compromised due to the company or our banking partner's failure you are guaranteed a

full reimbursement of to $250,000 >> it's embarrassing, honestly embarrassing they did that and, frankly, a lot of these companies in this market have misrepresented what they are to the end client look at celsius talking about how they are the unbanked or unbank yourself with celsius if you look what's happening behind the scenes to get those yields they're doing things banks do otc derivatives, unfortunately, it wasn't communicated to customers that they were doing all these risky things they just kind of wanted to -- >> you can never judge a man until his death. i wonder if regulators are taking many of the data points as we're getting through the collapse here to tell them how to regulate this entire space going forward for better or for worse. we'll leave it there thanks for your time >> thank you still ahead, this stock is off to the races on race after

one analyst said it could climb 50% from here. we'll reveal the name next how much more are passengers willing to pay up to board a plane these days the answer may surprise you and maybe it won't as we head to break a look at the dow heat map where we have two out of three names in the green right now. caterpillar, boeing and intel leading the way. ♪♪ age before beauty? why not both? visibly diminish wrinkled skin in just two days. new crepe corrector lotion only from gold bond. champion your skin.

welcome back to "the exchange" where we have markets in the green today the dow up 310 and the highs off that level the nasdaq up nearly 2%. consumer staples are the worst performing sector with colgate, kimberly-clark, clorox all in the red.

colgate down more than 3%. now here is the chart in the break, crocs shares are climbing again. upgraded the stock to buy earlier this week, could surge 50% to $75 a share we're currently at 57 up 10% the meme stocks generally are hot today. look at bed bath and beyond shares up 25% to just over $5 after filing showed 50,000 shares by the new interim ceo who replaced mark triton gamestop up after a four for one stock split. and amc is getting in as well, reiterating its sell rating and cutting its price target from $6 to $5 a share. don't look now but beyond meat

is quietly on pace for its forth straight week of gains as the shareholders know it is down 80% and is still trading $81 a share even with the 7% gain let's get to bertha coombs now for a cnbc news update >> your cnbc news update this hour the creator of the yu-gi-oh was found dead he was just 60 years old a detroit police officer was killed after confronting a man with an assault-style weapon last night the officer and his partner responded to a call of a man firing a waem and upon their arrival the suspect fired in their direction. one officer was struck while his partner returned fire killing the suspect. the officer was later pronounced dead at the hospital

and fin whales have returned in huge numbers a higher concentration of fin whales there compared to other regions including off the coast of california. tonight on the news the father of the highland park shooter is speaking out hear what he had to say about his son and more on "the shepard smith show" tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern. kelly? >> bertha, thank you very much still ahead, oil back above $100 next we'll drill down on three key categories we are back in two minutes

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pippa stevens with the story and the standouts. victoria greene is g-squared private wealth cio and she joins us with her picks and trades today. welcome to you both. pippa, kick things off for us. energy stocks are higher today as oil and gas bounce back the sector is still down more than 20% in the last month and the group has really gotten caught up in the broad market selling. it was a standout for so long, and so some of this is to cover losses elsewhere in the market looking forward to names to watch are exxon and occidental exxon giving an upbeat outlook for second quarter earnings driven by high prices for petroleum like gas the company said refining margins set to increase by more than $5 billion. the stock is down 18% and hitting a record back in june. now turning to occidental this is a berkshire pick and they've been adding to the position. the stock is the top performer within energy more than doubling this year. and to put that in context,

valero is the second top performer up a measly 40% in comparison so it could be a victim of its own success. >> up a measly 40% is how energy has been this year victoria, where would you guide investors in the space >> right i still think it's a space to like $100 is sustainable. i don't think you'll see the demand destruction until $150. we are a like and a buyer of exxon. we like occi we're a buyer of this. you're talking stocks that will just print cash especially something like a fixed plus variable dividend. they're putting that cash back to shareholders. occi is starting their buybacks in dividends companies not really put as much into the ground as they are giving it back to shareholders occi is having to do debt reduction but it's done quite well it's got the berkshire backing and the warren buffett seal of approval and that makes people feel good about investing.

i am a buyer i don't think the energy rally is done. i think it needed to take a breather i think some of the demand destruction, unless we hit $150 a barrel is less of a concern. >> you're still more worried about the upside than the down side let's leave it there then. pivot to the renewable space where the solar and alternative names are getting hit from a few key issues it's not like they're benefitting from this rotation out of the traditional fossil fuel plays pippa, why are they lagging? >> they are higher today amid this broad strength that we're seeing across the market longer term many of the names are still sharply lower. supported policies have failed to pass and higher rates make future profits less attractive one group to watch is the residential home installers that sun run sunnova up today but in the red for the year and they don't manufacture equipment and have higher margins than large-scale projects with utility rates jumping the

theory goes rooftop solar becomes more attractive. but companies' cost of capital is rising and we've heard that can be passed to consumers we'll get a better sense, kelly, to the extent it can be passed along to consumers >> very choppy year for that etf. down 2% since january. victoria, do you like anything in this space? >> no, i'm a seller right now. i think you're facing regulatory risk and subsidies and tariff changes. i think there's a huge macro storm brewing. the international solar market looks better you're pivoting hard with what's happening with russia. if you look at the u.s. the issue in california, florida barely squeak by these companies are profitable because of the subsidies and tax rebates that they're getting and their customers are getting. if you see a change in that, that completely changes the dynamic not to mention the discount rate. i think it's going to grow i think solar will be a place in the future but i think right now it's just a difficult market for them and i think there's a lot

of risk. you saw what happened when california even just moderately proposed they might change it, you saw that stocks tanked i think right now i am not going long in that space and i'm a seller of solar still. >> pippa, you've been reporting of that following these developments, why do you think the tide has turned when, if anything, now would seem like the time for policymakers maybe with extra stimulus cash to invest in precisely this space >> it seems like the pessimism in the market around these names has just grown and if there is going to be a rotation out of more risky, growth areas of the market it will hit this group especially hard the long-term bulls was a good year and we're still looking back to that 2021 was bad 2022 not great by any means. but they say we're still at highs and the long-term case is only more attractive with these volatile commodity prices. it's the unpredictability around

what prices will be. that's why renewable advocates say now is the time to switch over to solar and wind. >> if they can stand on their own two feet without subsidies that would be the greatest case in the longer run. we'll leave that space for now then and pivot to the commodities like copper and aluminum coming off their worst quarter in decades now the metals are finally catching a bid today. pippa, it has been u-g-l-y. >> it has been really ugly and they are high today. copper settled at the lowest level since november yesterday so not too high today to counteract that. and, of course, that follows its worst quarter since 2011 and this after it hit a record high in march. the downturn here has been very swift. aluminum coming off its worst three months since 2008. june's ism reading was the lowest in two years and flow demand out of china isn't helping. investors hold the highest net

short position in more than two years. stocks like u.s. steele and alcoa down 50% from their 52-week highs this spring and it's going to be a cruel summer for the miners >> victoria, i'm curious, which way do you break on this one do you buy them or sell them >> i'm a cautious buyer here i think honestly prices will stabilize. you saw that massive spike up. it's wiped out any gains those metals have. if you look at the balance sheet i like alcoa better than u.s. steele you have a very cap supply on a ton of aluminum. i think china is stimulating their economy and they're going to grow even if we slow down i think it's a mild recession. i think the damage and the pain is done. if you look at what alcoa has done to fix their company they've streamlined their operations down from something like 67 different plants and facilities down to 32. they have only three lines of businesses they're actually printing a dividend now all steps in the

right direction and aluminum prices if you look at the forward curve and what we're pricing in it's more stable from here so are we going to get the huge price swings back up i don't think so even with stable prices where the stocks are now trading is a much more attractive buy >> victoria, i'm thinking about everything you're saying from the fed's point of view when i hear maybe the oil and commodities correction are behind us and level off from here maybe that's going to be a little uncomfortably high, you know what i mean >> yeah. it's going to be very hard for inflation to come down we think it's peak inflation but will be plateaued. average gas prices is, what, $4.76 today, it's only moved down 5% from the highs oil has been 20% off for the highs. $90 to $100 oil is sustainable if you look at the 2008 peak you were talking $150 il we're not there yet. we have to see what russia does. a lot of macro factors in play

if you look at it, inflation is sticky right now and it's hard, a very hard job the fed has. they can't go drill for oil, they can't help with that. the problem with the free market we're exporting more product down to mexico and latin america because they lost russian supply so as this world rebalances, it's a painful rebalancing and this isn't something you can write an algorithm and it fixes itself in a day. you're talking changing shipping and storage and light versus heavy crude. it's a very complex map to actually rebalance and it will take a while >> i think you're making energy and commodity investors feel better but making me feel worse, frankly. it's going to be a tough situation to get out of. >> i'm not sure what happened there. >> it's all good this has been great. we appreciate your time today. victoria greene and pippa, thank you very much, our pippa stens re stevens reporting. gaming stocks are showing life

contessa brewer in las vegas with a look at what's driving the gains. is this the start of a turnaround, contessa you know what, business is booming. everywhere you see it's pack why is it being reflected in the stocks i'm con tess at that brewer here on the las vegas strip is this the time to bet on casino stocks? coming up on "the exchange." at ? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. nurse mariyam sabo knows a moment this pure... ...demands a lotion this pure. new gold bond pure moisture lotion. 24-hour hydration.

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welcome back casinos are supposed to be a major reopening beneficiary. but instead the stocks have gotten slammed this year mgm down 42% from its highs. sports betting names farineven worse with draft kings down more than 80% from the highs. all three are moving higher today. contessa brewer with what's behind the revival contessa >> reporter: well, maybe there's finally a connection here because here on the las vegas strip the biggest operators, mgm

and caesars, are still seeing blow-out crowds. the industry just had its best may ever following the best april ever and now you're going to add in newly resumed international visitors and the convention business casino execs are optimistic. none of that has been reflected in the stock prices. boyd, red rock, mgm way down this year. caesars down 56% to date some of that reflects a persistent worry over the digital gaming business especially sports betting and what it costs to open new markets and acquire new customers. that has been a challenge for penn national gaming as well which spends less than its competitors on acquiring customers and has, of course, bricks and mortar casinos across the country. penn down 42%. bally's down 45% draft kings down 53% though in the second quarter sports betting revenue in the united states grew 75% compared

to the same time period last year according to the american gaming association now asia has been a sore spot for mgm but more so for wynn and las vegas sands as macao is plagued by china's covid lockdowns. sing singapore, however, has reopened if macao follows the rebound of las vegas, the real question when will those winning bets show up in the stock price >> right i get that sports bet hg a bit of a pandemic revival but then it didn't but then it did. basically the stocks were overvalued and so draft kings is correcting, and that's fine. the traditional casinos, we keep seeing strong numbers, right >> and what is really remarkable is while you've started to see little hints that consumer discretionary spending has been under pressure with rising inflation in las vegas in particular, at the las vegas strip, that is not being reflikted in occupancy numbers,

in the room rates they're able to charge. what you're still seeing is this insatiable demand for the experience and while there may be softening in some other levels, in the regionals at the very low demographic, which isn't profitable for the casinos anyway, you may see softening there but you're not seeing it in general in las vegas. >> it's fascinating. it adds up and yet doesn't for these frustrated investors contessa, thank you very much. our contessa brewer in las vegas. coming up, tomorrow's jobs report will be closely watched from vegas to wall street to washington so far the recent data points have been pretty firm. but one gauge is now showing gnof a slowdown. we have those details next

wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start.

but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. welcome back to "the exchange." jobless claims were around 235,000 last week. the highest level in about six months but still low by historical standards with the next fed decision now less than three weeks away everyone from policymakers to investors is keeping an eye out for any signs of a cooling labor market and our unofficial jobs gauge here on "the exchange" monthly data from recruiter.com also indicates hiring is slowing. joining me now to discuss is the

chairman and ceo it's great to have you back. welcome. >> thanks so much, kelly glad to be back. >> all right so let's get all the nitty-gritty in this report. what are you finding out there >> so, first off, our recruiter.com recruiter index declined 3.5 to recruiter.com e to 3.2 in terms of overall sentiment. the overall labor slowdown as we're talking about it is we track how many open roles the recruiters in the survey are working on last month they were working on 22 roles and that dropped to 16 in the june recruiter index. so a 27% decline in the number of roles that they're actually working on which tells us that there's certainly a slow up in the hiring on the good side, we actually thought a bunch of months ago that companies were over hiring and we reported that on cnbc that the companies were stocking up on employees in terms of the overall supply chain so i think we're seeing a correcting going on in terms of

companies themselves in terms of the overall hiring and certainly a little bit of a slow up. >> one side note, that's a slowdown in remote work. is that right? >> we saw that we saw that, really the in-person are really picking up again, but also compensation's up in terms of the reason people are leaving jobs and the reason people are taking jobs and we started to say, hey, look, as a recession might be coming let's go find more money to put into my pocket on a monthly basis >> in a weird way, people's concern about recession could add to inflation expectations which would make the fed more hawkish, you see what i'm saying here i wonder if you look at momentum we're slowing from an overheated market how would you describe it? a healthy one? a strong one a weak one what is it >> these two competing challenges that happened on the one hand, we have two jobs, two open jobs for every

person that's unemployed, right? so we have this incredible need to get people back into the labor market including the full-time jobs at the same time we have talent tech and that did wantnot grow all and that still remains number one for the recruiter index and it's flat may to june and we saw sales pick up 9% from may to june. so we're starting to see areas where there's growth talent and tech is still going to be an area and sales, health care, we're up month over month in terms of those roles, themselves, but still, how do we change the dynamics that we get a million-plus open roles filled and they're in the higher volume roles and the hospitality and retail, et cetera. >> does this report tell you we're going into recession >> no. no, it doesn't it tells us that companies are being more careful in terms of hiring look, 4.1 million people quit in

may according to the bureau of labor statistics numbers they're still quitting we're seeing that the candidates that the recruiters are interviewing, some 21% of them have had three jobs. so 21% of the recruiters reported that the candidates had three jobs in the last year. >> wow >> really incredible 44% reported that they had two jobs in the past year. so job mobility is going to continue people are going to chase the jobs that have more compensation and companies need to better align how many they're hiring on a monthly basis. i think there was a lot of over hiring that happened earlier in the year and that's really what we're seeing >> that's so interesting, and i guess the sort of point is that we're seeing an uptick in layoff announcements and to quote anita, you think labor is firmly in the driver's seat >> absolutely. i think talented labor, we say this all of the time everyone who wants a job is more valuable today than they were

two years ago from the waiter to the factory worker to the java developer. everyone is more valuable because there's someone who wants to pay them more money and we're seeing the wage inflation and what was stopping people from getting jobs was what you saw a second ago, job mobility it means i don't have to stay in a job four years, five years anymore like our grandparents told us we had to. i can leave jobs must faster there was a survey that showed 20% to 25% of the people on the survey were planning to leave their job in '22 this was not a survey done a year ago this was done a few months ago they're still in this looming recession and people are quitting jobs to find better jobs >> it's a fascinating and timely read and we thank you for bringing this each month evan >> evan sloan with recruiter.com. delays, who cares? pricey tickets fine why americans are shrugging off

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one more thing before we go, we've got to talk about airline fares. the airline stocks well off their highs as this road to recovery has been hit by inflation and labor shortages. despite all that, though, americans still have an appetite for air travel according to a you in survey. phil lebeau joins us with those results. >> kelly, this story is all about time and money which is important given how much airline tickets start these days let's start off with time. typically people book their trips eight to ten weeks in advance and the new survey by oag and 1400 travelers found the number of months out where people are booking tickets has gone up dramatically over half say perhaps up to six months out and 11% of the people now who say i'm doing it at least six months out and international trips, they're up 14%. so you see the demand is there

and people are willing to pay even with airfares at a higher level right now. according to oag, almost 80% of the people surveyed said i'll pay $50 more than what i was expecting. 43% say they pay $100 than what they thought it's really once you go above that that you start to hear people say i'm not going to pay that much. the reason we're showing you delta is it reports its q2 results next week. this will be the first snapshot into what the airlines are seeing for the rest of the summer, but more importantly for post-labor day, kelly. that will be the real test of whether or not we see the demand that is out there, whether or not it continues >> they should ask people how much more they guarantee they'll arrive on time i'll bet it would be pretty high. >> yes >> look, i think people would pay more if they knew for sure, but there are too many variables outside of the control of the airlines especially when you factor out weather, traffic

congestion and corridors and airports >> they're blaming the faa for certain things and the pilots are retiring and a lot of back and forth right now and we still saw a lot of cancellations and delays this weekend. we'll leave it there thanks so much we appreciate it our phil lebeau. that does it for "the exchange," everybody. "power lunch" begins right now welcome to "power lunch. i'm dominic chu in for tyler matheson today and here's what's ahead, biotech bounce. the sector, one of the most hated on wall street to start the year is now going gang busters on a relative basis, up 26% since mid-june alone with m & a activity heating up is the sector investable yet again? plus an entertainment power player the ceo of live nation is here to discuss whether the concert ticket business is inflation proof and how long he sees consumer demand remaining strong for thos