counts and she was found guilty on four of the counts. >> who knows, this could still go on. >> sentencing remains a major discussion point steve, thank you markets at session highs thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" with sara eisen starts right now thank you, dom and kelly welcome to "closing bell." watch the s&p 500 in this final hour, near the highs of the session. if it does manage to close higher, that will match its longest winning streak of the year the most important hour of trading starts now take a look at where we standing in the market right now. there's the s&p up 1.5%. best performing sector is energy the nasdaq is also doing well, up 2.25% so technology continues its rebound. yes, july around this period is usually seasonally strong, but increasing signs that inflation is easing playing into the narrative here small caps are working today

they lagged yesterday, up 2.5% the dow up 1%. you've got big gains for caterpillar, nike and boeing crude oil is up 4.5% after a slide earlier this week. consumer discretionaries going strong as well you've got carnival and borg-warner which hit a 52-week low yesterday is higher so some of the beaten-down cyclicals are working today. technology is working, communication services the two lagging sectors are defensive, real estate and consumer staples coming up this hour we will discuss the markets, china tariffs and oil with hayman capital management founder kyle bass and then the president of the world bank, david malpass on growing recession fears globally time, though, for today's market dashboard. mike santoli is here taking a

look at the role sentiment might be playing treasury yields and crude oil are back rising, which have been pain points for the market. >> both of them well off their high so that's probably allowing stocks to have this follow-through to the upside, this recovery. four-day win streak, the fact that it's only the second one this year tells you what a rough year it's been because that's not a remarkable long streak this mid-june low is the latest one that the bulls are making a bid to say that's going to be consequential. remember, we were up 6% just about in the s&p week before last, gave back less than half of that last week. we didn't back slide all the way. i think this downtrend line is what everybody is watching 4000 on the s&p. a lot of stuff comes together right there. so another 3% upside and then you can start talking about whether in fact this move will have a little more traction than the prior downtrending rallies

that we've seen. take a look at the sentiment picture. this is the weekly american association of american investors bullish percentage on a 52-week average basis. over the last year, how many bulls have there been? it's rarely been this low. you had a couple of times back in the '80s that left a long hangover and then you have it right here that was in 2016, by the way '15 into '16, people were despondent brexit was coming up so this is a net asset to have people this fatigued by the market it's not love, it's not hate, it's indifference. i think a lot of investors are checking out, surrendering and saying it's been too tough to play so it's not as if they're mega bearish but they're sidelined. >> big banks start to roll out next week, and before this week it looked like it was a good

setup because a lot of the bad news was priced in what sectors will you be watching and where are the expectations >> i think you would be wanting to look at the cyclical sectors. ones where stocks may be down quite a bit, maybe estimates haven't fallen quite as much and then the big tech stocks, are they sensitive to the macro slowdown or not? how much are things like digital advertising already pricedin, if there's any bumps in the road along that all that stuff matters i agree with you, it was looking like we're going in on the lows, now we're not. >> apple, tesla, alphabet, nvidia leading today some good strength in those names this week. mike, thank you. before earnings, we're getting ready for the big jobs report out tomorrow morning expected to show a gain of more than 270,000. the federal reserve also keeping an eye on that number as it tries to cool the labor market and inflation. just in the last hour fed governor christopher waller says

he is backing another 75 basis point hike at the fed's july meeting. joining us now, michelle girard and paul chrisner. i think that's the big question for investors, michelle, is whether the fed once again will follow the markets, maybe not in the next meeting, they'll do 75, which is the expectation, but just in terms of cooling down the rate hikes here on signs that inflation is easing >> yeah, i think that's exactly right. the market has priced in a lot of fed tightening. we're looking at a funding rate over 3%. i think the expectations are most likely 75 basis points in july, maybe another 50 in september. but, you know, will that be essentially it, even if they do a little bit more between now and year end, do we need to reprice even higher or is there a risk the fed could have to do more right now as there's signs of inflation cooling, as there's

signs of some cooling in terms of the u.s. economy, it doesn't feel like that that -- that the market needs to worry about th fed doing even more. i think that's what tomorrow's numbers will be important. if numbers suggest wage growth may have peaked, employment is strong but somewhat cooler, then the market can get comfortable that enough is priced this with theed in rifed right now. >> paul, are you a buyer do you believe in this rally that we've seen this week? would you be putting money to work on the idea that it's been inflation already in the market? >> no, we're not buyers of that idea and we think it's going to be extremely difficult historically the fed has had a lot of trouble and its batting average is well below 50% in terms of engineering soft

landings so we would be fading any rallies and focusing on the opportunities to be defensive in fixed income and buy quality and go up cap of market in stocks. >> when you say defensive in stocks, do you mean consumer staples and real estate? not working today but have worked so far this year. are you sticking with those groups >> we upgraded staples and utilities. we're at market weight now we'd be focused on energy. we also like tech here we'd be buyers here, but looking for quality. our colleagues have good lists of individual companies, that's not my area, but we do like energy and tech. we'd also throw health care in there as a quality sector. companies and sectors that have good cash flow, good cash to debt and organic revenue growth prospects for the future that's how we would position in equities and use this opportunity to fade rallies and

get out of kickcyclicals. >> michelle, i think it depends on wages and the cpi to determine what happens next. what are your expectations around some of these key numbers? >> so the wage number, we're a little higher than consensus at 0.4 i will say looking ahead to the cpi, we think you're going to have one more bad month, but that will be the peak. our expectation is, is that this june number will be the peak and start to move lower. of course the decline in energy prices that we've seen over the last month is very positive as well as the easing off in other commodity prices so i think if we can just get over this hump, if the numbers don't surprise sharply on the upside, and i don't -- even with the wage growth numbers we've got good evidence that you're seeing a pickup in the labor force participation rate as more workers are coming back into the labor force, that should also help to ease some wage pressures, so it feels to us

that the peak is in fact in. again, i do think a longer term question is how low will inflation go will we get all the way back to 2% but that's a 2023 story, not something that i think the fed or the markets will have to deal with near term near term i think the trending will be moving in the right direction. >> whether we can get back to 2% or whether the fed will be able to tolerate something higher and maybe they'll change their target something they dismiss right now, but we'll see paul, michelle, thank you very much that's a conversation for another day. up next, world bank president david malpass on whether central banks are doing enough right now to prevent a global recession. and remember in january kyle bass predicted oil would rally well over $100 a barrel. we'll see whether he thinks they could head back to the highs of the year but the big sell-off we've seen over recent sessions. you're watching "closing bell.

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check out today's stealth mover. it's helen of troy which is a big loser on wall street, down almost 9%. the housewares and beauty products maker beating earnings estimates but the stock is under pressure because the company sl sl slashed its full-year outlook. global growth expected to slow to 2.9%. that is down from 5.7% growth that was expected last year.

that's according to a report from the world bank. and it expects that slower growth to stick near that rate the next two years joining us now is the president of the world bank, david malpass. president malpass, always good to have you back on. what are you guys thinking as far as the world economy and how it looks into the end of the year and into next >> hello, sara these are hard adjustments one is on the energy side. there was dependence on russia and the world is trying to adjust to that and to realign. but that takes time and a lot of new production in other parts of the world. and then on the monetary policy side, the interest rates were near zero in quite a few of the advanced economies and so they need to normalize and that applies to bond yields as well so these are hard adjustments for the world to make, developing countries in particular under a lot of pressure. >> what about the u.s. what are the odds of recession

do you think at this point >> there's always some kind of recession. some of the forecasts are for second quarter weakness. it's possible that that's happening. i'm encouraged by some of the trends on the u.s. side but i think we also have to look at the weakness in europe, in japan and in china as being contributing factors for the global slowdown that's under way. so even if the u.s. can stabilize or even pull off a soft landing, that still leaves quite a bit of the world in danger >> and what's interesting about your forecast is you do not see a sharp or a quick bounce-back you expectthese lower growth rates to stay. why? >> this has to do with the investment -- weakness of investment over this year and the last couple of years but also this energy

realignment. i mentioned that is a big challenge for the world to make that kind of adjustment. and that's penetrating, you know, into the fertilizer markets, the food markets, and that really slows down developing countries so if you think about the global population, billions of people are in a prolonged slowdown related to the adjustment in energy and also the adjustment in interest rates that was probably needed even before th advanced economies and in developing countries, many of them have done already several rate hikes from their central banks. so on a month-over-month basis we may be getting -- we're probably at the peak but that still leaves inflation too high for central banks to be

comfortable and also, you know, their portfolios are challenging. you see that in europe they're struggling to buy enough of the government bonds to keep bond yields down in the weaker economies. in japan they're struggling to keep their cap on bond yields. these are dramatically different monetary policies than pre-2008 and there's a lot of adjustment that has to be done to get used to that. >> well, just look at the currency market, david again, the dollar is strengthening. we've seen 24-year highs against the yen. we're almost at parity against the euro emerging markets' currencies in the last six months have gotten crushed. you guys at the bank and the imf follow these things and the disruptions that they have how problematic do you think this is? >> exactly right it's hard to think that we're

stabilizing because of those moves in the major currencies are still ongoing. and that means there's probably quite a few more rate hikes in the prospect outside the u.s in the u.s. we know is likely to have more. that puts pressure on the debt in developing countries, so that's the reason for thinking of this as a prolonged difficult period for the world over the next three years and that's on top of there being shortages of natural gas in particular and that factors into the fertilizer and food markets you know, it's a direct chain. and i want to come back to this issue that the massive bond portfolios held by the central banks are part of this challenge. how do you begin to unwind those -- that maturity mismatch that resides in the central banks? >> no, the qt experiment will be

interesting. david, i also have to ask you about news of the day with boris johnson stepping down. this is a country that has 9% inflation rate, rapidly slowing growth here and now political crisis what do you see ahead for the world's fifth biggest economy? >> political uncertainty, yes. but from the standpoint of their ability to create markets and to innovate, to have financial services, to have innovation through their business climate, you know, they went through brexit and people said that was going to be a catastrophe. well, it's been a challenge for them but countries tend to bounce back if they're given a chance so that's my outlook for the uk and i'd say for most countries if we give them a chance with policies, they can bounce back after these tremend travails >> not so bearish. david, always good to talk to you, president of the world bank. let's check the markets.

up more than 380 on the dow, s&p up 1.7%. we're building on the gains for the week and on the day. look at the nasdaq, up 2.5%. as far as the strength, every sector has turned green. even some of the defensive that were lagging like real estate and consumer staples just turned positive on the session. energy stocks are zooming, up 4%, which makes them down only 2% for the week. boeing is a big dow winner despite a warning from the aerospace giant's ceo. we'll share the details of that straight ahead. as we head out to today, check out some of the top search tickers. 10-year treasury takes the top spot again and the 10-year treasury yield is actually higher today, passing 3% again so a little bit of selling of bonds. crude oil is back rebounding after a big slide, still down for the week tesla, a lot of the big cap tech names are higher tesla, apple and nvidia are the top three. ers plup.5the'ape 2%. we'll be right back.

boeing a big factor helping out today's rally despite some cautious comments from the company's ceo. phil lebeau with the details. >> sara, these are significant comments from dave calhoun, ceo of boeing and it has to do with whether or not the company potentially scraps plans to build the stretch version of the 737 max. that's the 737 max-10. that is in development right now. it has not been certified. and that's why these comments are relevant he said they could cancel the program if it does not receive a waiver by december 20th. back in 2020 congress passed the aircraft certification safety act. this was in the wake of the 737 max scratches. one of the requirements, a new crew alert system. again, this goes into effect for aircraft certified after december 21st. here's an important point. congress could issue a waiver

exempting the max 10 from having to put those crew alert systems in these aircraft. dave calhoun says the significant of this is that that system would require more training for companies that order the aircraft he says i think our case is persuasive enough. this, meaning the potential cancelling of the program, is a risk i'm willing to take if i lose the fight, i lose the fight. shares of boeing, they have 640 orders for the 737 max-10 from 17 different airlines. again, the important thing to keep in mindi is if they are required to put this new crew alert system in and can't get this plane certified before december, which is looking unlikely, potentially a lot of their customers could sit there and say, wait a second, we've got to go through all new training for our pilots in the dash 10, that could mean fewer orders it's a costlier road to go down not only for boeing but their customers as well.

this is going to be an interesting discussion on capitol hill over the next several months >> it is also interesting that it's not having an impact. boeing up 3%, adding 27 points it's down 30% this year. >> we're a long ways from this being decided, sara, that's why. >> got it. phil, thanks phil lebeau. wall street analysts issuing a slew of inflation-related stock calls today, even as inflation is showing some signs of cooling off up next, whether wall street is late to the party and what it means to investors. later, kyle bass on how inflation and the market could be impacted if president biden does decide to roll back tariffs on chinese goods we'll be right back.

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what is wall street buzzing about? inflation. well, some equity analysts are just starting to get the memo, perhaps better late than memo. take some of the research calls out today. bank of america, for instance, cutting its price target on nordstrom, citing inflation concerns, also downgrading kohl's to underperform on weaker demand due to inflation. that analyst cut the price target to $26. kellogg gets a downgrade by ubs

because of inflation costs the company is going to experience a significant amounting, according to the analyst behind the note, and won't be able to pass it all on. but here's the thing at this point we are starting to see signs inflation is really coming down. jpmorgan actually out with a note saying food inflation has gone from a boil to a simmer energy prices have plunged and patrick duhan of gas buddy tweeting that he's counted more than 2500 gas stations with gas costing $3.99 per gallon or less we have yet to see whether the inflation relief is more than just transitory. the big cpi report comes out next wednesday so does the parade of earnings the question, is the inflation impact already in these stock prices which have sold off sharply this year. some of these analysts just catching up? that will be a key theme and question in earnings season. here's where we standing right now in the markets up 2.4% on the nasdaq, up 1.5%

on the s&p and every sector has gone in the green. energy is in the lead. consumer discretionary is also doing really well. some of the big winners there include carnival, ford, borg-warner, royal caribbean and bath and body works. up next, kyle bass on whether oil prices will rally back to new highs following the big snap-back we've seen in recent sessions. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ well would you look at that? ♪ ♪ jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks it gets a little old. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! [golf ball bounces off rover] unbelievable. ugh. [ding] ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here!

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we know president biden is considering rolling back some of those chinese tariffs. janet yellen, a critic of the tariffs, raised the issue during

a call with china's vice premier earlier this week. joining us now is kyle bass. kyle, we know you're a long-time hawk on china. i assume you think this would be a big mistake, even though wall street has been cheering it on as a way to induce growth and put pressure on inflation. >> hi, sara. it's a good thing wall street isn't in charge of the u.s. national security. this is one of the biggest mistakes the biden administration would make from a policy perspective think about it, sara the reason we put these tariffs on had nothing to do with a trade war with china, which is how it's described in the media. what's important to note is that china can act in uneconomic ways in certain sectors to ruin certain sectors of our economy and i.e. make us more dependent for them for instance, in the aluminum business, they were giving the aluminum smelters in china free electricity and selling aluminum far below where we could sell it here in america or make it in america. this etook our capacity

utilization from the high 80s to the low 70s, meaning bankrupting our entire aluminum business imagine if we had to rely on china for our strategic and military aluminum. so that happened in steel, that happened in aluminum what we're talking about is saving like eight basis points on inflation to make a giant policy blunder from a national security perspective it has to be one of the dumbest things that this administration has ever thought about >> well, i do think there's a tension in the administration. i'm not sure the u.s. trade rep is in favor of this and i think it's why it's so delayed in terms of announcing any kind of decision on this are we getting anything out of it, though, kyle the trump administration wanted to get that -- they did that trade deal and china hasn't fulfilled its end of the bargain in terms of buying u.s.product and everything has gone haywire anyway because of what's happening with global growth an inflation. >> yeah, you know, the deal that we announced, the quote, big

trade deal that president trump announced with china was something that he actually tried to defend his entire presidency. in the end, do you know what percentage of china's end of the bargain they held up not even 18% of the bargain they held up. >> so what are we getting from it >> i think the administration is desperately trying to tamp down inflation, sara. i think anything they can push forward helps. you have to realize the communist chinese party pays a lot of lobbying firms and they have a lot of advocates in u.s. corporate business to push the president to try to reduce tariffs because it's what the chinese communist party wants, right? they use our media, they use our system against us. it's important for us to realize what we'd be giving up from a national security perspective for eight basis points of inflation. it's like taking a morphine shot for a cancer problem it's ridiculous. >> okay. well, speaking of national security issues, i got

enlightened on the chips issue last week at the aspen ideas festival, i did a panel with the intel ceo and senator rob portman about the dire need for building semiconductor plants in this country and getting that c.h.i.p.s. act passed. i don't know if you've been following the asml the pride and go from the netherlands, big semi manufacturing. so the u.s. government wants to prevent it from selling to china and then china in response has accused the u.s. of technological terrorism. i'm just curious, kyle, as someone who watches this very closely where you think this goes on semis? >> so, sara, if you look back and you remember the broadcom deal that we actually blocked and we're blocking this. heretofore, we've been able to work together with the dutch government to keep the most advanced chip-making technology away from the chinese and away from their ability to even see it or steal it or buy it

and in this case asml makes, as you know, probably the single most important photolithographic process which enables chips to be printed via light so far we've been able to keep this technology away from the malign activities of the communist party and i hope we can dkeep doing so going forwar. listen to the joint conference between fbi director wray and mi-5 director and you'll see that we're opening a new case on chinese ip theft or malign activities every 12 hours in the united states. think about this we're opening 700 chinese cases a year, and yet wall street can't wait for another chinese deal to go through and we can't wait to invest more money in chinese companies. it's a schism -- >> to be fair, they might be in a better spot than we are right now. they're stimulating. their inflation is very low.

their stocks are doing really well because they have a pent-up demand surge coming from the covid lockdowns. you can't deny that's a good spot to be in for the markets at least. >> i smile because they have a closed capital account their currency is not even convertible into global currency today on any scale their banking system is 3.5 times more levered than ours and they are run by a genocidal dictator they are not a better place to be they're not a better place to live, and they're not a better place to invest in because they don't even have a rule of law. i don't buy what wall street sells me, if you can't tell. >> i can i just wanted to rile you up there, which i did i've also been teasing your call on oil because you made a really good one on this program oil prices are at 80 and you said they're going well north of 100. we don't have enough capacity and have a ton of demand coming and then the war we've seen a sharp slide back into bear market do you think we've put in the highs on the price of oil? >> oh, gosh, no.

i think, sara, if you look at what we've done, we've taken our strategic petroleum reserve down to less than five days of global demand it's lower today than it was in 1985 in nominal terms. think about how much demand has grown since 1985 and think about how much our economy has grown since 1985 we've put ourselves into a very precarious short-term position we haven't solved the supply problem. the global demand is inelastic, it will keep growing so this pullback should be bought with every dollar you have because oil will see 150, it's going to see 200 over the coming years. >> wow, all right. there you go with another putting yourself out there with another call on oil. kyle, thank you. >> thank you, sara. >> kyle bass, appreciate it. so fi surging after a bullish call the analyst joins us next. that story, plus a new list of resce

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react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli back to break down these crucial moments of the trading day, plus we've got dan dolev and courtney reagan on what to expect from levi's earnings we'll kick it off, mike, with the broader markets. another strong day the s&p 500 is up 1.5%, even though oil prices are jumping. kyle bass just said they're going back to 150 to $200 a barrel treasury yields are higher, the dollar is stronger all of these things have been

problematic for equities before. not today. >> they have they're below their highs if you're looking at oil, looking at yields. also gasoline features are lower so it feels as though we're feeding off the relief that we're not racing to new highs on those real stress points in the market at the same time, it feels as if the growth stocks are being rediscovered if we're talking about slowdown, if we're talking about yields not running away to the upside, it seems as though growth is underowned credit markets actually are ripping today. that's been a real problem for the markets is widening credit spreads. junk spreads are coming in pretty hard for once so i think all those things feed together another one of these rallies that makes it seem like people weren't expecting anything to the upside but a real test at some of these levels in the market. >> check out some of these, the meme stocks, like gamestop up big. plus amc is up 15%, bed bath and

beyond climbing 20%. even teladoc characterize ttening >> what i would say is it's too early to characterize this move in the overall market as the turn in other words, the bottom is in and we're in recovery mode so you see it being plausible. there's some conditions in place for it, but it's a wait and see and a prove it market. but when we do get rallies after we've been in a downtrend, absolutely the lower quality stocks, higher beta, less earnings visibility, all the stuff that got beat down the most, high short interest, those are the things that are the most spring loaded to the upside. so we're absolutely seeing that. whether that means that we're rebuilding risk appetites in general and it's going to feed off itself, i don't know if that's the case. it seems like it's a little more of a mean reversion after a

really tough time for those stocks but as i said in general, growth, that's not all garbage, of course, growth has made a standing here in the last couple of weeks. >> also adam aron also tweeted which got the meme stocks a little excited we are watching shares of sofi is it a bank is it a fintech play dan dolev says it's benefiting from the best of both worlds although lowered the price target to $7 explain why you took this action today, dan. >> it's not a bank, it's not a fintech. so we took down the price target to 7 i just think we want to -- i think long term there's more potential. we want to give it like a reasonable time given where multiples are so that's marking it to market but our call today is very simple the valuation has actually

gotten to a point where even financial -- conservative financial investors who didn't like sofi because they screened it as too expensive now see this as being reasonably priced you've got all the optionality of high fico lending, deposits and things that are not priced in. >> i think that that's the key, what you just said when i think of sofi, i think if the credit cycle is really turning here, which it is, how would a sofi hold up, and you're saying it's more resilient than people think why? >> 100%. that's what most people don't appreciate it's got about a 740 average fico loan. if you look in the past recession pscycle, i think peop don't appreciate that the personal loan borrowers are very high fico which is very

different from these other names that people don't like right now. plus they lend deposits -- they're like a bank, they are a bank and that makes them more resilient. they get a better spread between the lending and the borrowing because they're a bank so they have got the best of both worlds in essence. >> dan dolev, thank you. a little bit of audio issues you like it but you think it's worth $7 mike santoli, it's gotten hammered and wall street doesn't like these future earnings stories that well, especially ones that are sensitive to the credit cycle. >> that's right. it just doesn't seem as if that mindset that said there's a massive opportunity because of huge generational behavior changes and how we're going to access financial products is going to create the potential for this fast-growing super app. but it's a crowded enough field. while it might be true that the existing borrower base has a healthy fico score and not big

credit risk, in a tougher economy you run out of those people to lend to so loan growth goes down and their own credit standing might not hold up so it doesn't seem as if there's enough specialness to it. >> how is it valued relative to other banks? a big part of dan's thesis is that it's a bank. >> it's not way out of whack in the sense of versus book value, versus tangible book value, and i think that's basically been his case there okay, there's some smaller banks. if you take out the very largest super banks which trade closer to one times book value, 1.7 is not crazy. but it's not earning much off that capital base so it's different from a regular old bank making good returns today. >> 1.7 book is closer to regionals. >> exactly. a trio of internet stocks -- he says softening consumer demand and recession risks will hurt the sector but booking holdings, air bchlbnb and matchu

are better to hold up. match, it's premium business model and strong user loyalty should keep it in despite positions -- keep it in prime position despite macro headwinds. he also noted three stocks with the most risk are roku, amazon and pinterest. mike, what do you think of the calls? >> well, i was going to say amazon on the list of being most vulnerable to disappointment is pretty telling, if that's what mark thinks, because the estimates really have been slashed. i thought people basically felt as if the company's guidance was relatively cutting things to the bone so we'll see if that remains the case you know, when it comes to airbnb and booking, i grant that perhaps they are being swept into the people are going to travel this summer and then it's going to fall off a lot and they're very sensitive to

consumer mood so maybe there's an opportunity if you believe that's incorrect and travel is not going to sustain itself in terms of demand and then match, it does look very cheap so just kind of leave that as it is. >> right and the calls that we covered yesterday about love being recession-proof and dating being recession-proof. levi strauss is a big name on the earnings calendar after the bell we'll give investors another read on the state of the consumer courtney reagan joins us what should we be watching in levi's report? >> last quarter they put up a really nice quarter and said they hadn't started to see any signs of the consumer slowing down or demand, so that's really sort of the key theme that we're looking for throughout all the numbers that they're going to present here after the bell is what does consumer demand look like for denim here in the united states but also around the world. has anything changed since they last talked to us in april they said, look, we have been able to push through some price

increases where we need to do so, but we don't have our head in the sand, right if things change, then we'll have to pivot too. so that of course is the big question for levi strauss. but things have really held up for them it did reaffirm the full-year guidance last year we'll see if we get another reaffirmation or potentially move in either direction but as you mentioned, sara, investors liking the action today in levi, up about 3% they're down about 15% over the last three months. so we'll have to see where we go i think we need some direction and commentary on the state of the consumer around the world. >> the den im cycle i think is key for levi but in general, courtney, i do wonder if we are going to get in this earnings season especially for retail more on markdowns, on inventory issues, on seeing more sales across retail. >> absolutely. >> what do you think >> absolutely. i think it's going to be category dependent and potentially retailer dependent

and how they did their inventory planning when they were able to get the product in so in some cases they had the right product but at the wrong time or vice versa we know obviously target has been pretty transparent about some of the categories that it was a little lopsided in, so as a result to your point, sara, they are offering sales. i'm not sure we're going to see that with levi mainly because denim sicycles are year round ta degree maybe you're not buying shorts in december in the northeast, but i think people sort of reach out for their denim often throughout the year so we'll have tosee but inventory does remain the major theme throughout retail for this upcoming quarter and really beyond. >> i still think the western theme has legs i think the trend. i think people are wearing -- i bought jean shorts for the first time in like ten years recently. >> oh, my gosh oh, that's awesome. >> that says something courtney reagan. mike, as we head into the close, we've lost a little bit of steam, not much. we've seen utilities go red and

staples are trading around the flat line. but between the surge in energy stocks right now and also consumer discretionary i'm looking at some of the cruises and the casino names which have been hit hard lately, really rallying today. >> yeah, there's sort of an effort to scoop up things that have been left behind. you know, losing a little bit of steam, i mean obviously we've been hovering towards these highs all day. the nasdaq has had every dip intraday bought but we do have a jobs report coming in the morning. so you have to believe this one might be a little more consequential. people don't want it to be falling apart but also maybe too hot is going to make investors think they haven't fully accounted for the fed. with r remember, we've had these bouts with investors felt like they were in tune with what the fed policy path was going to be and could see toward the end of it and then it's been foiled when the fed has remained more aggressive so i think we're still in that phase where we say, yeah, we got

these hawkish minutes and a lot of hawkish fed speaks. we've got it, we firgured it out >> i wondering if there's a little soft landing in that the cyclicals are doing well the semis slide lately because they're very sensitive to what's happening in the economy they're all working today. so is consumer discretionary, so are the banks and so are energy. so that's all -- that all tells a better story on the economy. two minutes to go. what else do you see >> it tells me people don't want to get super negative after they have been so weak. the internals have been very strong close to 90% of volume to the upside, not quite all day on the new york stock exchange. 3 billion advancing, 300 million declining. this is part of that story as investors feeling as if they have seen some moderation in the likely fed path, but it picked up in the last couple of days. you've got firm ism data and hawkish fed speak saying don't

get too comfortable that the fed is going to declare victory. the volatility index is down toward 25. definitely not relaxing, but it's also not going to new highs. the real volatility has been in currencies and the bond market. >> as we head to the close, we're seeing the dow rally 350 points caterpillar, goldman sachs and salesforce contributing the most to the dow gains right now coca-cola, united health and travelers the biggest laggards that tells you it's a defensive-lagging story today. what's leading things tied to the economy energy is the best performing sector in the market consumer discretionary is right up there as far as stocks, apa up 8%, diamondback up 5.5%, marathon oil up 5.6 the s&p 500 is up 1.5% into the close. the nasdaq is really the strong story of the day and of the week nasdaq up 2.3% on the week it's up about 4.5% heading into a friday.

it is a jobs day friday, so it will be very important the s&p 500 up 2%. but building on the gains today and in this final hour of trade it's been the theme all week long that's it for me on "closing bell." see you tomorrow now fin "overtime" with the returning of scott wapner. [ bell ringing ] well, they got a big crowd here at the new york stock exchange today welcome to "overtime." i'm scott wapner you just heard the bells, we are just getting started i'll speak to eric johnston who's been bearish on stocks we begin with our talk of the tape the longest winning streak for the s&p 500 since march. whether it has staying power or is sure to fizzle out as the fed continues to tighten and those soon-to-be released earnings reports disappointing. let's ask jo