year the june jobs report testing investors. twitter defending the account of bots as elon musk's acquisition of the company said to be in trouble. breaking news from japan former prime minister shinzo abe has died after being shot at a campaign event it's friday, july 8th, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site from times square. i'm melissa lee with joe kernen. checking out the futures a lot can change with the june jobs report. we are looking to lose 11 at the open nasdaq looking to lose 53 at the

open treasury yields. 10-year treasury under 3 once again. 2.9% 2-year treasury at 3.202 and breaking news. former japanese prime minister shinzo abe died. he was shot while deliveringa speech at a campaign event the 67-year-old was the longest serving prime minister in japan. nbc's akori njoji is joining us now. shocking >> reporter: absolutely, joe the nation is in shock with news that the former prime minister shinzo abe shot and pronounced dead at the age of 67. this was a brazen act of gun violence that happened during broad daylight as the former prime minister shinzo abe was giving a speech to help a campaign ahead of parliament

elections slated on sunday we are now getting more details of what happened in the hours after he was shot. his physician who treated him after air lifted to the hospital in western japan during a press conference describing shinzo abe arriving to the hospital without a heart beat he motioned to the neck wounds. after frantic blood transfusions, he was pronounced d dead two hours ago shinzo abe was 67. he was shot in the middle of the day. this is extremely rare in japan. japanese people pride themselves on the fact this is one of the safest nations in the world.

gun hviolence is pretty unheard of most japanese people never have seen a gun drawn according to the broadcaster nhk, the suspect has been apprehended shortly after abloh w abe was shot according to abe's brother, he said he is aware the suspect used to serve in the self defense forces for a number of years. prime minister shinzo abe retired two years ago. he is still an influential power and still well known in japanese he politics. his father was a foreign minister great grandfather was a prime minister he is still to this day the longest serving prime minister japan has ever had this has become a shock for not only to the ruling party and the nation at large.

also, i should say there has been a out pouring of grief from politicians. starting with the u.s. ambassador to japan and prime ministers and presidents from around the world perhaps too early to discuss this, but in his time as prime minister, he served twice. he resigned on both occasions for health reasons he's very, very well known as his agenda was to redefine japan's role militarily. he was an active voice to try to change japan's pacifist constitution to give the japanese military a bigger role and that led to a period of tension with south korea joe, the nation is mourning as japanese former prime minister shinzo abe died at the age of 67 assassinated on the streets of japan. >> taking all that into of course, i am hesitant to draw

any conclusions or inferences or anything about motive. it's just unsettling and shocking we all feel like i think we knew him as the longest serving prime minister thank you for that report and all that background which i didn't know a lot of that. like i said, i still -- what can you say about this in terms of motive >> you don't you don't know reports say the gunman said he felt he was hurt by shinzo abe in some way. in the business world, shinzo abe is known for abenomics aggressive monetary easing and fiscal spending. we will talk about that more in corporate news, twitter trading lower. the washington post reporting the elon musk deal may be jeopardy musk's team doesn't think the

twitter figures on spam accounts are relireliable more drama at gamestop the cfo fired. he was pushed out by the chairman the company telling employee it is it cutting staff the stock is down. joe, this is after the rise of the session on the back of the news it split. timing here. >> gamestop. when it was $5 or $6, it looked like blockbuster then $400. this was a representation of the times, i think $125 i guess you can have a new business model that does more online i can't imagine you will visit

gamestop retail locations like my son would all the time. >> just like blockbuster rent the dvd or beta tape. >> i did have betamax and myspace. i'm still trying to get rid of myspace on my blackberry it is not easy i listen to great music on my walkman. airline deal drama spirit delaying the shareholder vote meeting as they vote on the merger the postponement comes as spirit continues to talk with frontier and jetblue. they want to go with frontier, but jetblue won't go away. either one might have trouble with regulators. in energy news, berkshire hathaway bought another 12

million shares of objection ded occidental oil prices this morning back above 100. stock has been hit hard as commodities have been pulling back the energy sector now more 22% from 52-week highs you come on "squawk box" for four straight days market rallies for four straight days coincidence? while this is happening. copper, two-year low chip prices weaken crypto market. twitter. it's not where we were five weeks ago. we he were talking in makeup the return of the "t" word >> transitory. inflation. we saw the peak in commodities,

joe. it was transitory. >> right me we're going to get -- we're fortunate today because we will get a look at the employment report a lot to look at with the overall number wage gains they may be stickier be commodities. that might be what the fed has its eye on something we tried to engender now we are getting wage gains which can be much longer lasting. the one other thing i mentioned and we have to get on. our legislators are useless. dutch parliament approved legislation to establish homh home working as a legal right. >> wfh as a legal right? >> right what if you can't? i don't understand how that is a

legal right? >> if you are a cashier. >> one of the first countries to enshrine flexibility into the law. they have talked about how hard it is in new york to get people. goldman had issues they worked with it after the shocking thing on the subway a couple of weeks ago. it will cost more money to get people to come back. >> at this point >> right >> when the wage picture or jobs picture goes the other way and employers start having the upper hand, they will say you come back to work or you don't have a job. >> it didn't say anything, but you sighed and said, becky and andrew will be back next week. at the top of the show >> really? >> that's the way i heard it >> maybe that is how i see

secretly feel. >> yeah. i commend you. >> the fourth day is like wow. this is no fun >> i had the adrenaline knowing this is the last day >> you do. the excitement >> right >> this is it for you today. >> yes weekend starts at 9:00 >> you don't have to worry about "fast money. it will be slow. >> it will be great. >> filling in in. >> courtney. >> great >> we hope she doesn't do too well >> i hope she does exceedingly well >> i never want people to do too well. i know coming up, what investors want to see from the jobs report. and sectors quietly ra rallying as we head to break, check out the morning's winners and losers stay tuned

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a speech that is not why. we are up four straight days in the s&p. all depending at what we see at 8:30 the old movie line you have to figure out what you want you know what you want what is it you really, really want i don't know >> the rate and wage would you know how the markets react? >> i think you were right what you said earlier weak, but not too weak it 220 >> 210. >> wage gains. >> labor force participation >> this is all called goldilocks not too hot. not too cold talk about the vix we talk about it a lot it's at talk about it so much e at times it peaked fear with an

october sncenario and you get that near 40 in the past, we haven't seen it in july? it has taken seven months to do this damage. that doesn't get the attention of stocks now down 50% they went down little by little until down 50% >> like a thousand paper cuts. >> right >> we have seen volatility peak in the market. we wonder in aggregate >> do we have anyone to ask this stuff? look at that you have two people you will talk to about it >> mimi duff is here with us and kevin simpson. mimi, i'll start off with you. kevin is the founder and of capl

pla planning mimi >> the market is trying to figure out the primary concern the first half of the year emphasis or is it odds of recession? that's what i mean by that the drawdowns of 20% tend to happen every couple years. the drawdowns of 30% are typically more associated with recessions and those are more every five or six or seven years. i think that's the inflection point. what is the primary concern right now? inflation or recession >> i think that's why the jobs report is going to be so widely watched and crucial, kevin joe and i were talking about figuring out if good news is bad news what number do you think the market wants >> great question, melissa

the goldilocks number may be the best thing this market reminds me of so many things back then. there were big giant televisions. they had rabbit ear antennas you have to move them around to get a clearer picture. we trying to see where the market is headed look at what happened on tuesday. we came out of the long holiday weekend. energy had gone through correction the yield on the 10-year treasury was down 70 basis points i think the markets are really looking for clarity and maybe the jobs report will give us some clarity you know, the jobs report is not as important as it it uused to e to mimi's point, we are looking at inflation numbers and aspect of telling us where we're going. >> the market back drop for the jobs report is a pull back in 10-year treasury yields, mimi.

we were talking about fixed income volatility. that allowed the growthier areas to go higher bio-tech has gottencheap the yield back drop, but improvement in terms of going lower, has helped the trade. what do you like longer term about bio-tech >> bio-tech is a sector that has just been extraordinarily beaten up to your point, we have, at least for now, carved out a range. a big range. 280 to 310 i think that stability will give some of the growth sectors of the market which have been beaten up. bio-tech with 20% of the names cash value on the balance sheet over now those are the opportunities we like to the extent we see a bit more stability in the rate complex which will come with more data as we learn about how the

ill evolution of the economy is proceeding and we are now into section months of rate hikes if we factor in the fed uses communication as a tool as well. they started communicating to tighter policy earlier this year as we go through this process and get more information, then we should see more stability in the rates complex as well. >> kevin, we have never seen an emergence of a modern society from a pandemic before we have seen it, but it has been 100 years. maybe we're not supposed to understand the way everything happens in the cross currents and things that are going on i was reading. it says here chips are memory prices down. plummeting weakening. it is because we're out of the pandemic what do we need?

nuclear oblivion to get the chips going next time we're staying home it is odd. odd that so many sectors of the economy did so well during the pandemic now we're using it as an excuse for companies not doing as well. no one would have predicted that >> no, you bring up a great point. a once in a hundred year pandemic, the landscape changes. i'll pivot with respect to the recession. i think we're in a recession, joe. we saw the gdp revise lower last week for q1. if q2 comes in last or zero or down slightly, that gives us six months of decelerating gdp i know there is a new definition and all kinds of things with labor and employment and other factors, but old school guys like us, six months of decelerating growth is recession. anything else is a matter of

semantics. i think to your point coming from the pap denpandemic, you la different lens the broken clock theory means we will be right at some point. the pce data is giving us hope it has to level off before it goes down. to your point, everything is different in the markets that cause corrections. 2008, 2020 what we see now in the pull backs. you have to look at valuations and stick to fall kwquality and not chase companies unpr unprofitable we are still in a bear market. you have rallies along the way the message is investors need to be careful >> it sounds like, kevin, the risk/reward should be to the upside if the markets are forward looking and in recession, we

should look past this. >> absolutely, melissa if we look at investor sentiment that came out all-time low, that is a leading indicator markets can retest the lows and markets can go lower it is a bottoming process. not a capitulation mimi said the same thing we are not seeing an all clear signal there are opportunities here you can buy stocks and you can add to them as they pull back on weakness if the recession is now, instead of the debate of the recession in 2023 or see a recession in 2023, the message may be 2023 is the year we come out of recession. mel melissa, there are opportunities here for sure. not all doom and gloom closer to a bottom than a top. >> 400,000 jobs that recession talk will go quickly maybe we're somewhere between transitory and definitely not transitory everything is like that.

quasi. >> that's a cop out. >> yeah. it does. anyway >> mimi and kevin, thank you >> thank you coming up, the latest on wnba star brittney griner on trial in russia. first, as we head to break check out the faang stocks this morning. stay tuned maybe the fed can take a lighter touch if we are slowing. they finally got firmly resolved to battle it, maybe they can back off you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter.

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welcome back to "squawk box. time for the executive edge. a story getting attention in both of the world of sports and business wnba star brittney griner pleading guilty in a russian court to drug smuggling. it carries a sentence of ten years in prison. the trial is four months after authorities found vape cartridges containing cannabis oil in her luggage officials were with griner in court and delivered a letter from president biden many are calling for the u.s. government to secure her release. we're hopeful that the guilty

plea was some understanding it would result in an imminent release. not -- that's political machinations >> something else going on >> at this point with this country, you would hope if you cooperate, the other end reciprocates with what was understood if there was anything hopefully she will come home soon. coming up beyond the government numbers the real take of the nation's numbers. look at yesterday's winners and losers stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: executive edge is

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. checking the numbers ahead of the june jobs report at 8:30 s&p up by 1.5. dow looking to add 68. treasury yields. things are quiet ahead of the jobs report. 10-year treasury at 2.9% 2-year treasury above 3% not that much action you see weakness in the euro as we head toward parity. that is what we are watching closely. checking on oil prices back up above $100 again, the june jobs report at 8:30 a.m full forecasters say the economy likely added 250,000 john-farm jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 3.6% obviously a lot can change with the asset moves once that number hits. >> it is july 8th.

this is a week later they didn't release it on july 1st. a little further the further we get from the things that happen four or five weeks ago in terms of a lot of things with oil and different commodities. we will talk to liesman about it again and again. 60 point drop in fund futures and the terminal rate. joining us with the look at the state of the labor market. is the co- founder of exchange for trading on events. tom gimbel i have to laugh, tom founder of national staffing and recruiting firm. your worst nightmare dutch parliament approved legislation to establish home working as a legal right. what if it comes here? you would pull your hair out.

>> legal right to be unemployed, too, joe >> i knew i could get you. how does that work how can you have a legal right >> when you have a country the size of rhode island, you have different parameters as to a country of 350 million people. >> luanna, do you know how that works? do we need to introduce legislation here >> i don't think so. it should be up to the companies. >> go ahead. let's talk about the matter at hand we haven't heard from you, luwanna. what are we expecting? what do the markets want and what do we want as a society for today? >> the markets are forecasting around 75% chance that we will see above 100 k. the expectation is 300 k on the reading today.

that is really going to be a mark on what we will see with the economy and fed behavior and inflation and where we see for the rest of the year inflation expectation and unemployment and behavior will be impacted by today's reading >> tom, what do you expect we have seen a lot of things and it seems it cooled off a little. has the job market cooled? >> the job market is really hot. we had a record second quarter we had a record june we continue to see both. we see white collar search and staffing i was talking to a couple of ceos last week it is fascinating we have people thinking we're in a recession or heading toward one yet, we have unemployment at 3.5% this is really what you see and i'm not saying it was wrong. everything is 20/20 hindsight

when you flood an economy with cash and people don't save and spend. you will have some tough times ahead. we have inflationary situations. we talked about it years ago with a jobless recovery. now a job full recovery. it is mind boggling. >> all these layoff reports we he get. those are one-offs >> sure. i wouldn't want to be a partner or a limited investor in a vc firm right now the glory of telling and recruiting people is saying we have a great opportunity we are series c and b or what have you you will get public. that's when you get the money. we will pay you less now and get the cash on the back end when we go public. people are saying that is fairy dust i would rather go work for an old -- i think -- i know we are seeing in the market

people would rather go work for a traditional company. brick and mortar and manufacturing in the usa and be doing those things and with a company with no forseeable future of making a profit. >> luana, you are with an exchange and i wonder what the betting odds are over time and how they changed in terms of guessing of recession. have they gone lower >> well, the markets are predicting around an 80% chance we will see a negative gdp for the second quarter of the year another around 90% chance we will see another quarter of negative gdp growth this year. if you look at fed and inflation, the expectation changed. in the beginning of the year, you expect six to seven rate

hikes. now three rate hikes from now to the end of the year. even though the longer t timeframe, investors are expecting back to normal levels, but this year not looking promising. the markets are predicting things will get worse before they get better. recession is liking coming soon. >> tom, what are you seeing? in terms of people saying i'll come back and i'll do it, but i want this x amount of dollars. that is the sticky part of inflation. are you still seeing that? i know i'm going over here and getting a better offer here. >> obviously, i'm in that business we grow from moving people from company to company it is happening. where we see the slowdown is the crazy counteroffers from

existing company we're not seeing and on the initial offer that people are moving again for more logical reasons. opportunity, career growth, obviously more money it is not the 30% or 40% or 50% it was 6 or 12 membeonths ago. i talked to ceos it is not like it was, but there are more job openings than people there is a skills gap in the country. as long as that existing, there will be more openings than people that's a different struggle than what we deal with on inflation and negative gdp growth. >> thank you luana, thanks. >> joe, one last thing i'm from and live in highland park, illinois i raised my kids there and i grew up there. i just want everybody to know

highland park will survive and do well. we're doing great. we need serious gun reform in this country i'm not a political pundit what happened in our community could happen anywhere and it did. it gets cliche to say your town followed by strong, but we are a small community outside of chicago of mixed ethnicities and genders and ages it is a good community we have been hit badly and hard. we will bounce back. keep us in your thoughts let's affect legislation to ban assault rifles >> well said thank you. tom gimbel time for a quick break check out the chip stocks. up 6% in the last three days on semis, up 11% so far this week coming up, do not miss the interview with the atlanta fed

president raphael bostic he will join us at 8:30 a.m. eastern time stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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welcome back to "squawk box. we are in wait and see mode. futures are down

nasdaq looking to lose 30 points at the open. among the stocks to watch. levi's reporting better than expected sales helped by higher prices and strong demand. levi's raised quarterly dividend 20%. that stock up 4% this morning. joe. coming up, new information on the government's covid loan program raising red flags. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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welcome back to "squawk box. nearly $800 billion in the ppp was that enough to help?

some are asking questions. brian sullivan has the study from the m.i.t. professor and the st. louis fed. hey, brian >> joe, you may have heard of m.i.t. and 2020 ppp program. if you don't remember, here is the numbers. all in at all-in, 11.5 million loans, $793 billion borrowed and only $714 billion forgiven this is old news, right? much of that money was likely wasted they did say while it did help save some jobs the cost was high and the program was not well targeted the st. louis fed suggested only 25% of the nearly $800 billion

went to johnsbs that would have gone away anyway against an average income of $58,000. the paper found that most of the money went to the business owners, suppliers and banks and not to the rank and file workers. in fact, the study looked at incomes of business owners and bank edxecs and found out that 70% was captured by incomes with the top 20%. there are searchable databases on every small business that participated many industries that ultimately boomed during the pandemic, car sales, real estate agents, fast food owners, they got big government payouts with almost none being paid back it's actually not their fault. not blaming the business the government effectively making these grants and not loans with criteria so easy to

meet you basically had to breathe to pay it back 94% of the ppp loans had applied for forgiveness and pretty much all of them were approved for forgiveness. these grants were not considered taxable income in most cases it may be even worse because a study found that since you could pay deductible expenses with the ppp money, some recipients, joe, had a negative tax rate on the money they got why should taxpayers care about this old news? well, $714 billion is more than the federal government spends each year on education, social services and veterans' care combined and you divide that money spent by the number of households in america, that's about a $5500 tax bill per household ultimately for theis money it's not revisionist history it's a new paper that confirms what a lot of people were

talking about. >> confirms the worst expectations most of us don't have any illusions about the effectiveness of things like this and we need to be very careful about giving a blank check to the federal government to do things with. some of us think that. some i think don't think that. they just think you throw as much money as you can and print more money and spread it around. but that's a really shonging fi figure thaw t you just said. there are good things could that could have been done with it >> i want to be clear. at the time, if i were a small business or sole proprietor, i probably would have taken a loan myself we didn't know what was going to happen the world was going to hell in a handbasket, we didn't know there's no knock on the people

who said i might need this money because i don't know what's going to happen. the money was ultimately not well targeted, and we talk so much about inflation it's hard not to think that with so many businesses that boomed during the pandemic, the biggest takers of the money were car dealerships. we know what they did, and the money was largely not paid back. this has got to be a massive inflationary force like my wife was saying at the dinner table last night, you were kind of dumb if you didn't take the money and the government said you didn't have to pay it back, so why would you? but it's a lot of money. a lot of money >> how long has it been since the $1400 toilet seat. >> cash for clungkerrs, joe. >> they're good at having enough

n money to spread around but just not getting it to the right place. that's the whole reason for the private sector and profit incentive. there's to accountability. there's no accountability. who's in trouble for this, brian? nobody >> yeah, and i'm not blaming the companies that took it >> i'm not talking about the companies. >> government-offered money. people took it by the way, i don't, individuals, whatever. i'm talking about major franchises government oversight d.gov all the fast food places took money, they were the ones making money >> in the government's deefense, shock and awe at the time.

sfwllt g >> the government had a program, could you take out money from your 401(k). it had to be paid back within three year or you face taxable income consequences on your own money. the government saying well, you can borrow your own money for three years but you have to pay it back otherwise you're going to get whacked with taxes, but yet you can take giant grants from the government. business booms i don't know now it's going to fall on every tax paying household, $5500 per household. you divide that money back it's not my conclusion it's like 100 pages long >> we're talking about student loan forgiveness, too. a lot of people went without to pay back their loans, and it's the same kind of situation we are seeing again we do have an election coming up, brian. >> somebody who owned 50 mcdonald's took a bunch of money out, but somebody who has

$50,000 in debt from college education, it's another layer in the fight. good luck friday >> thanks, brian sullivan. coming up this mniorng, big movers, including gamestop and twitter. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

good morning the june jobs report in focus. investors get ready to wrap up what's been a positive week for stocks and we'll hear from rick perry on the president's energy policy and where oil prices might be headed as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square, i'm joe kernen with melissa lee. u.s. equity futures have moved around a little bit at this

hour we have a little red, slightly in the red we have a big jobs number coming, and we don't foeknow wh we want. something probably like goldilocks, nothing too soft, nothing too strong oil, things move, they retrace some of their moves. they go back now we're back above 100 at 102 and change if you just are waking up, there's unsettling breaking news from japan prime minister shinzo abe is dead after being shot, assassinated abe was giving a campaign speech for japan's parliamentary elections in the southern part of the country when a gunman opened fire, walked up behind him. local media reporting that the suspect is in custody. japan's defense minister and abe's younger brother calling the assassination an attack on

democracy. japan has virtually no private gun ownership. abe was 67 and some of wall street's most followed names paying tribute, one saying that the murder of shinzo abe is devastating. his three arrow policies were important and visionary. and it was heartbreaking to hear that hundreds of units of blood, they did all that they could to try to -- >> save him. >> to try to save him. apparently one of the, don't know, they said he was struck in the heart and bled out only 67 years old. they talked about that had a lot of life left potentially. cut short. >> let's switch gears here back to the markets dom chu joins with us premarket movers >> we've got news breaking in the last few moments with regard

to the retail landscape. it's the sales at costco which, you know, reports monthly numbers to give you an idea of how things are shaping up. costco reports a jump of 20% in its sales for the month of june. it ended on july 3rd or thereabouts. 20% jump in overall sales. if you look at the overall picture of comparable store sales, it's a 18% jump in sales in store locations open for at least a year it's a 13% gain if you strip out oil prices, this is the kind of stock that's seen a dropoff with the market selloff, but costco posing solid sales gain. also watching what's happening with shares of twitter after the "washington post" report citing sources close to elon musk saying the bid for twitter is in

serious jeopardy that's the "washington post's" story's words. they say according to their sources, elon musk still has some serious reservations about the data and information coming from twitter with regard to the number of spam bots and whatnot that are part of the overall ecosystem. those shares on the move right now, 4%. and we're watching shares of gamestop 1 15%. big jump yesterday, around 15 or s so >> the twitter report was interesting. musk's team has stopped engaging in discussions about financing

for this deal, and you might say the twitter stock has really declined since the announcement of the deal. yes, that is true, but so has tesla stock. it was, what, more than a thousand bucks when he first made the overture. >> you try to handicap or silo it into what's part of the broader drop and what's specific to what's happening with twitter. the curious part about this, when you have an all-cash offer that you place out there, and then you say you have financing and the stock keeps dropping and dropping and dropping, it tells you a little bit about maybe outside investors are viewing the odds of a deal happening if you take a look at tesla stock, there was a concern over whether or not tesla stock would have to be used in some way, shape, or form to help finance that deal, even with the deal prospects maybe not going well, you would think tesla would get

a bid on it. but the interest rate keaconcers not taking away anything >> i don't want to own twitter >> you love twitter. >> no, i don't i don't like it. >> you engage. >> the only reason i engage, i don't like saying, okay, say whatever you want, and i'm motte going to say something back. i'm going to say something back. because. because. >> and you're teflon it doesn't stick >> thank you, sir, may very another. i'm going to call them out on whatever their weakest point is if i can find it it's a white elephant. it's not worth $30 billion it's not worth $50 billion >> the argument, though, for owning twitter is you've seen all thewarts you know that the potential fake account issue is out there, you don't know how many bots, you know that. you know there aren't any other buyers out there all these negative things are in the price so one could argue that there is a

floor. >> what if the deal is off then what? >> it never traded like it was on >> yeah, but let's say it's off totally. >> i don't know at this point. >> maybe it's a love-hate. i love to see things that are going on i find out things that are going on is there a way you can just get any mentions but then sometimes you hear useful things. so it's just, it's got a lot of flaws. but, and i, you know, attribute social media for the decline of western civilization >> and yet you engage. >> i do. >> aggressively. >> i do. you don't? >> i don't >> i see some things -- >> i don't engage like you do. >> for me to engage, you have to have zero followers. market gearing up for the release of the june jobs report.

steve liesman joins us with a list of investors and what to expect you know how you have leading economic indicators, it's not even coincidence it's lagging, isn't it we use it as a point in time that we're going to get, we act like oh, this is here and now. what would you say it's about a month old basically? or even longer i know what we're measuring, but the effects of what we see have been probably three months ago >> it can be, joe. it's a really good point and by the way, it depends on the time you're in and one of the things i worry about right now is because the tight job market you could have labor hoarding that's another reason that it would be lagging is that people might hold onto their workers, having struggled so hard to get them and essentially it would give it even less, i like the weekly jobless claim numbers i think that is at least

coincident and maybe leading but let me just tell you a few things about this number concern that if they're too weak it's going to show the economy softening more quickly than feared if it's too hot, the efforts to cool the economy may not be enough wall street looking for the second straight decline in payroll gains. 250,000 jobs expected compared to 390 in may. that would be half the average of the 488 monthly year-to-date. average hourly earnings maintaining a 0.3% monthly gain. maybe held down by a lot of new summer workers coming in they tend to get a low are wage. and david gilbertson writing about it we've been following their published data for nearly 4 million workers. hiring showed gains in june.

they saw notable increases, where? entertainment and hospitality. the data's going to be watched carefully for the big inflation story, including labor force participation. several forecasters see it ticking up the drop in stock price likely will lift participation among older people given the hit to their 401(k)s. and this points to the real problem, and you guys know this. it's not creating too many jobs. it's creating too many jobs fortfor the number of workers available. if we went to prepandemic levels, there would be 2.5 million people available to work we're going to talk to rafael bostic and much more >> we don't always get immediate feedback from an important person right after a jobs m

number, so that should be good i wonder if he's got prepared testimony. >> you know, they tend to come in with a message that they want to deliver, which is we always give them space and time for that, because, but look, i'm interested, obviously, as i think you are, in this notion we've been talking about all week where's the cut-off point? where's the point where the fed stops and looks around we had a reporters meeting yesterday with a jim bullard from st. louis, and he liked the market pricing i asked him directly about the market pricing i said you have that chart in the back there the market gets up around 3.5 and starts to back off and he said yeah, that's pretty much my outlook. he mentioned the '94-'95 cycle he sort of affirmed the idea of going up to 3.5 and adjusting

downward we'll see where bostic stands on this my guess he stands a little bit lower. bullard wants to get to 3.5 this year i think bostic's a little more cautious this year, maybe a little lower and then look around >> it's always interesting we never know what to hope for do we want a rip-roaring economy? or do we want a kind fed so it's really weird sometimes to hope for a weaker economy just so the fed stays nice to us and it's -- >> joe, can i, very quickly, option c, option c, what i hope for is as many workers, as many new jobs as there are workers for. that's really the key. labor, supply and demand >> again, we want wages to go up so it's all, there's always an either-or for all these things it's nuanced, i guess.

>> real wage, inflation-adjusted >> the inflation was permatory >> between permanent and transitory >> strategerye. will we see a dip in grocery prices and rick perry joins us to talk about big oil. "squawk box" will be right back. he won eleven majors. it's said he'd show up in a limo after partying all night. on the first tee, he'd ask, “what's the course record?” then he'd hoist the trophy on eighteen. the golf course was his stage. and now, it's yours. walter hagen apparel. available at dick's and golf galaxy.

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of unlimited possibilities. commodity prices continue to roll over. prices of oil, corn and wheat have take and significant down turn our next guest saw this coming and warned about it. joining us with what he sees is carter worth good to see you. so let us continue >> you know, it's precipitous. let's say that, and i think it's, everyone's sort of a little bit off sides to extrapolate what's going on. momentum's a powerful force. when things are working, no one wanted to touch energy and yet at some point, mean reversion does kick in

we're under pressure across the spectrum, whether it's industrial metals, soft metals and of course energy my hunch is it's not so much about day to day whether it goes up or down that's very important and we try to figure it out together. but we saw, we have some charts here, and what we know is that it was that last friday in february it was march 25th, i guess it was in five, six sessions, oil was up 40% nickel almost doubled. it's all the events associated with the crossing of the border. russia attacking ukraine and those rates have changed it's easy to extrapolate or think hey, this is going to keep going, but it never does so now we're down 10%, broadly

speaking, depending on what aggregate you want to look at from the peak, and the peak is really a double top. so we're one, not really at the bottom of the channel. you can see that here fairly well-defined so i do think there's further down side. but most importantly, it has to be determined, my hunch the answer's yes, that the peak of late february, early march will stand as an important intermediate high and that we won't be going above those highs anytime soon >> so you were taking a look at the commodity etfs, that's a basket, carter copper, for instance, it's back at two-year lows what's the difference in the decline amongst the commodities, and what's the extrapolation for the equities? >> let's take copper versus gold gold's also plummeting but there is the gold-copper ratio which is very important. in this instance, we think gold is the better of the two, but

they're both in free fall. that's the good etf. that's what we look like just three, four weeks ago. and then we cracked hard out of that well-defined formation. in terms of energy, here and now, i would rather make a bet on certain energy stocks bouncing or at least, let's say, stop going down, and for those who like options, you know, selling a put credit spread rather than just saying hey, today's the day, it's bottom let's just get long. >> while you're here, i have to talk to you about your call on the s&p 500. you published this yesterday afternoon, and you see this bounced, having more legs. >> for sure. i think we've had very clear sequencing since the jan 4 high. and for distinct draw downs and recoveries and this one i think has a bit more to go

it'se it's esoteric stuff. but i think that's where we're headed >> and joe, i'm going to ask him about bitcoin as well. >> you should. >> because bitcoin you see also being firmed >> i do. when you said you never know what you want to root for. when you go and say own a stock and sell a call. wait a minute, am i rooting for this thing to stop going up? or am i rooting for it to keep going up and i get called. that's the problem with having two things to root for bitcoin for a bounce as well >> worth selling a put >> or selling a put. >> you like the stock, you're going to get it much cheaper, of course then you might miss it. >> whole show about options trading. >> what?

on what network >> who's the host? >> i talk about another before and after. jimmy and rosalind carter net worth, before and after. is it carter, >> braxton worth >> that name is familiar, carter p braxton, isn't a heck of a signature, a beauty. >> thanks, carter. >> the island guy. we got that going for us coming up, elon musk and twitter at odds over spam and bots reporters now say the deal could be falling apart we'll discuss ha ithat in just w minutes. and check out the futures at this hour. it's in the green. we'll see whether the s&p and nasdaq join in the green we'll be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question.

what famous business magnate and philanthropist was born on this day in 1839? aner when cnbc "squawk box" continues the aflac pre-pain show. aflac! paul is about to suffer a shelf-inflicted injury. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac! maybe you could use the money to buy a step stool. i have a step stool. so why are you climbing a shelf? the stool's on top of the shelf, isn't it paul... (shelf crashing) yeah... ♪ ♪ aflac!

now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what famous business magnate and philanthropist was born on this day in 1839? the answer, john davison rockefeller senior a new round of covid lockdowns in china eunice yoon joins us with the latest >> reporter: all day here in beijing people have been getting covid tests and mandated vaccines as part of the government's push to better manage more outbreaks inthe country. major economically vital parts of the country have now been in lockdown or partial lockdown areas surrounding shanghai for example. most notably, a manufacturing base for electronics, the western city of xian

it's 2.5% of the population. there could be a return of lockdowns in shanghai. fencing has gone up. there are reports of individual buildings being on lockdown. one major concern among the authorities is the arrival of the very highly-contagious new variant of omicron ba.5. that variant has now been traced back to overseas travelers who have been routing through shanghai, though shanghai itself has not confirmed any ba.5 cases, but that is obviously a big concern for the authorities here when they're trying to push through zero covid and also manage a very stressed-out economy. gdp numbers are going to be out next week. estimated at 1.4% growth, but

tipped at a two-year low there's obviously confusion among the authorities as to what to do next for example, in shanghai, despite the fact that a lot of buildings are being closed down, they insist to open up the cinemas today, and then beijing mandated the vaccines here, but just a day later now it looks that the mandate might not be as widespread so a lot of confusion about how to interpret the conflicting priorities guys >> thank, eunice yoon in beijing. still to come, rick perry and president biden's energy plan, plus we're about an hour away from the june jobs report. fad our all-star panel and rael bostic. you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

welcome back to "squawk box. mixed picture here in terms of futures ago we await the 8:30 a.m. june jobs report we are looking at a negative open the ten-year yield right now just under 3%. we are 2.98%

the two-year just above 3% take a check on oil this morning, we are back above 100 on wti we are up slight limit 102.86 right now. >> elon musk's purchase of twitter remains in the balance as he holds out, claiming twitter's numbers on spam accounts is not viable they reiterate that spam bots represent less than 5% of their user base. joining us now is aaron glick. and sara fisher. it would be minice, i'll start but, aaron, if elon had a grand plan i could have accomplished what he wanted to accomplish already in terms of, you know, just bringing the free speech

discourse to the fore. we've done that. do you think he wanted it? do you think he want it is now and do you think the deal ever closes? >> we saw last week several options go up. playing for about a 10% price cut. and i think investors have generally been saving some dry powder for this potential occurrence specifically for the filing of a lawsuit so that they could build exposure, because most people think that twitter still has a better case here and that the most likely outcome here is a price cut. >> sara, do you, give me everything give me everything you got what you know, some good conspiracy theories, what could be going on in the back of your mind and remember, we're talking about elon musk here i don't know if anyone can really look into the mind of

elon musk with a lot of certainty. what do you think's really happening? >> i think he's obviously trying to negotiate the preice down or back out of the deal but what he's probably doing is talking to lawyers behind the scenes he's been tweeting a lot less erratically and acting a lot more quietly behind the scenes what i imagine is happening is this one, he's trying to figure out, okay, if i were to walk from this deal, because remember, that $1 billion breakup fee only applies to certain clauses he can't just walk away and pay a billion dollars because he thinks there's spam bots he's probably calculating, if i walk away, what's likelihood twi twitter sues if twitter sues, what's the likelihood they force me to pay. you remember john tyson was forced to buy that company because he had the money to do

so elon mon elon has the money to do so if he liquidates tesla stock. if they reduce the price he could get the deal done sooner he extended the deadline six months they could be looking at another ten months of uncertainty. they don't want that it's been messy already. the third option that he could be thinking about is, okay, is there a fee that i could pay twitter. maybe higher than the breakup that they would allow me to walk i think that is highly unlikely, joe. twitter's board has all the power here elon must sign that agreement. they're either going to get this to court and force elon to buy it at that whopping $44 billion price tag or may figure out a way to lower the price to get it over the finish line but the power's in twitter's

board right now. elon musk is not in a good position >> what do you think twitter's worth if the deal were off is that fair value less than what it was, is it damaged has it been damaged in this whole process? or it was kind of not great to start with >> investors are wondering why twitter held that media call yesterday. we saw some investors shorting thinking that there was probably something negative coming out from musk. another reason to potentially hold that call could be that musk's campaign and all of his claims about inauthentic accounts are hurting advertising. that's another thing that investors are trying to gaple wi with talking to investors, i think that most have lowered their stand-alone projections. i think twitter could be somewhere around the $20 range

again, that's not my call. that's what i'm hearing from investors they're using as their stand-alone value. >> 20. >> 20? well, you know, you don't pay 54 for something that's worth 20. you don't pay -- >> that's why we're here. >> it is >> on that point, joe, they're basically making, when they're lucky, a billion dollars in ebita a year and they're not comfortly profitable when you think about it, that's extraordinary. now it's not totally unpress dempsed. if you look at snapchat right now, their market value's around 24 billion that puts them at around 40x it's not totally ridiculous, but i think a rational person would say that twitter's growth prospects are limited especially

compared to snapchat twitter's only at 220 million daily users. the growth projections are not looking very achievable. i think the $20 price range is probably right for twitter other bets like subscriptions have not taken off >> do you think, sara that advertisers are going back to twitter and saying what are your numbers? when elon musk first brought up the fake accounts being a bigger issue than the company saying it was, my first thought was wall street analysts are plugging a number into the model that was given to them as being true. we don't really understand how they came up with that number. and it shocked me. are people wondering what they're paying for when they buy advertising on twitter at this point? because that could seriously impair some of the projections that you just outlined >> we're in a different era now

than we used to be we have better data and analytics. ad agencies understand roi but 80% of their advertising business is big brands when you look at all their competitors, it's not big brands most of their ad business is small, medium business that's where they're concerned is twitter's self-serve platform enough to get a sale over the finish line. if you're a big brand, you don't need to have an ad, this ad led me to this purchase. you need the halo effect they have schexclusive rights t some sports games. they have not been able to grow the ad business. >> we're, i'm looking at your twitter account now, sara. you don't really engage.

i'm going to send you something and see if i can like trigger you on something >> please. >> what's that >> let's go back and forth >> you use it just for business. but you've never gotten a bad tweet, have you? about yourself >> yeah, you get bad tweets all the time my experience with twitter, and this goes to what elon's thing is, you get back what you put in why elon musk gets so many bots clouding his feed, one, he has a huge following, over 100 million people, but he's somebody trying to antagonize a lot of his users. he's asking questions, making jokes, that's why he gets that activity back. >> yeah, i do that there are times i see something and i go, i cannot wait to tweet this, to trigger people. aaron, i'm looking up yours.

do you do anything do you engage? if i send you something nasty, will you engage? >> very little the powers that be don't want me on twitter for obvious reasons >> you have fed usualry keconces as well. you start, you start, sara coming up, former energy secretary rick perry on the president's energy policy >> see what do you think's going to happen on this interview people think i booked. i guarantee you, i will get stuff on this. >> i can't wait. and lar,te raphael bostic will be our guest "squawk box" will be right back. our best deals on every iphone -

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up next, former energy secretary rick perry on the president's energy policy and much more. then later, yep, the june jobs report we'll get the numbers and the

inst instant reaction from our panel, says here, of experts. "squawk box" will be right back. he won eleven majors. it's said he'd show up in a limo after partying all night. on the first tee, he'd ask, “what's the course record?” then he'd hoist the trophy on eighteen. the golf course was his stage. and now, it's yours. walter hagen apparel. available at dick's and golf galaxy.

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>> as well as gas price coming down off their high, does this take pressure off president biden on his trip to saudi arabia next week let's bring in former energy secretary rick perry thank you for joining us you wear a lot of different hats mr. secretary, we have had discussions ad infinitum, ad nauseam, i would say, about whether regulations, overregulations have impacted production here in the u.s and i'm going to take a little bit of both sides and devil's advocate the oil industry did have to close down a little bit during the pandemic, obviously. in response to much lower prices, what are you going to do and esg and shareholders that

went up, the cast doubt on whether this is a viable industry in the future that's caused them to shut down, but now with us back at 102, i had bet you, regardless of what president biden has done, i'll bet you that the oil companies can make hay i bet they can increase production, i bet you they can open up more areas do you agree with that at 102, they can get it done regardless of what the biden administration does in. >> well, i will give you a simple answer to your question of do we need to quit talking about whether or not permitting is costing the oil and gas industry more money and drive up the cost, and the answer is yes. so quit talking about it you know, the fact is we know that when you overregulate, it costs more money you get what you innocentivize.

we were very successful in the state in recruiting businesses here, the economy growing, the population booming, and it's because we didn't overregulate, didn't overtax, and we didn't overlitigate those are the three issues that make it so simple for people to understand about governance and governing. so the issue that you asked secondly was, can the oil and gas industry increase at $102 a barrel and the answer is yes, but they're going to be cautious about it in the long term investment because just because can you short-term make a little money you have an administration in place that has clearly said, listen, we don't like the oil and gas industry joe, think about what biden said during his election effort he said i'm going to shut them down i'm going to stop offshore drilling, stop leasing >> we've mentioned that a lot. we don't need to go over that.

i know, but here's the thing you can get a new administration, and you are still going to have long term these force -- it's not biden. it's esg it's the green lobby it's the global perception that we need to, we're going to run out of hydrocarbons, and we need to transition to renewable energy we could have a couple years of a totally different administration and five, ten years from now that's still going to be looming, and it's still going to be very difficult for corporate managers in that business to make long-term plans it's not going to go away regardless of who's in the white house or congress. >> joe, i'm very biassed i hope we have a new administration in 2026 and certainly have a. >> 2024. >> well, in 2024, 2026, all through that period of time, and we have a different congress, which i am very confident that's going to happen. but i think here's the issue the world is starting to

understand better that fossil fuels are going to be a part of the, of our future, that having fossil fuels there and the, the flourishing of the people, the flourishings of the citizens their lifestyles, their ability to live a comfortable life, fossil fuels are going to be right at the base of that. and you're seeing the european union, you're seeing the world kind of understand that. and the john kerrys and all the crazy woke left is now recognizing that, you know, we probably overplayed our hand here a bit there's a great book out, alex epstein "fossil future", that i highly recommend people read, absorb, that fossil fuels are going to play a very important role in the future and regardless of what the -- i think the esg movement is a, is

going to come. it's going to go it's not going to be long term in the decision-making process, i think, in the world. >> so the -- >> you got to have fossil fuels if you're going to have a world worth living >> asking a lot of poor countries and lesser-developed countries to make all these sacrifices, while germany's probably going to have to go back to coal or natural gas, china, india, all the more developed countries are going to do what they need to do to take care of their citizens and we're asking countries that are in no position to pay for renewable or to make that transition, we're asking that, and that's going to come to the fore as well what do you think about going to saudi arabia, even ro khanna, who's a friend of the show, congressman, he said mr. president, you're going to saudi arabia to ask for oil, and

you're exporting some oil to china. does that make sense >> well, it doesn't. i think, as a matter of fact, al jazeera even had a column today that said that biden was having a hard time explaining why he was going to saudi arabia. and, you know, when you have people on both sides of the political aisle like myself and the congressman that are basically saying, look, what are you doing? you know, my perspective is, saudi arabia is an ally. they're a country we closely work with. and if biden wants to bring down the cost of gasoline, and that's the real issue here, that his administration is ask your domestic oil and gas industry to, you know, increase their production, send them a message. we did this back in the trump years when you think about it,

joe. the permitting side of it. the regulatory side of it. trump said, for every new regulation you come with, you have to get rid of two so the industry's started seeing really clear messages from the white house that listen, they're not going to overregulate us they're not going to come in here with an epa that's crazed and thank god we've got a supreme court now that's addressed this epa issue, and hopefully a lot of the federal government will get the message that listen, this isn't your business if congress doesn't specifically say you go and address this area, whether it's with our nuclear energy, small, modular reactors, i happen to think need to be overseen by states rather than by an agency that hadn't allowed for the permitting of a nuclear reactor in 40-plus years. i think we're at a real inflection point m in in countr, about the states getting back,

using their tenth amendment rights deciding which way they're going to go. and that's what our founding fathers looked at. that's what they wanted. 50 laboratories of innovation of which the citizens in those state also make these interesting decisions. >> you know, it's interesting that the oil companies are easy targets, governor, because right now, it's easy to tweet that oil companies should do something about high gas prices, high oil prices but during the downturn when they're writing down billions of dollars in assets, there's not one tear shed for them during those o. and here we are in a boom cycle and that prepares the oil industry for a bust cycle later on fact of the matter is, the administration, congress, they need to get gas price down because consumer confidence is so tied to where prices are at

the pump so more immediately, what would you recommend that the administration do, if anything, p they can do anything aside from tweeting about it >> i think you clearly stand up. you admit you're wrong and i mow thaknow that one may a bridge too far it's hard for anybody to stand up and say hey, we were wrong. to stand up and say we were wrong and we're going to address this by sending a message we're going to open up our permitting for our federal lands. we're going to open up offshore drilling, open up the xl pipeline we've talked about these for literally months this is the way you send the message, whether it's big majors or independent celdrillers out there in the permian basin you become a clear partner in

helping them help the citizens of this country get lower gas prices >> all right, governor, secretary perry thank you. good to have you on. >> good to be but, joe, thanks coming up, the june jobs report is fast approaching we'll have the data as soon as it crosses futures ahead of numbers it's a mixed picture here. look hher igon the dow, lower for the s&p and nasdaq "squawk box," you're right back.

good morning we are 30 minutes away from the june employment report economists expecting a gain of 250,000 jobs what number do we actually want? what number do investors want pou for the economy, for the market. stock futures are mixed. all on pace for the second positive week in a row with the s&p on its longest daily winning streak since march and breaking news, former jap japanese prime minister shinzo abe shot and killed while giving a speech what we know, as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right

now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc take a check on u.s. equity futures. we are waiting for the june jobs report we are seeing a mixed picture on futures, with the s&p looking to lose five at the open. the nasdaq would be down just by about 50 taking a look at intetreasury yields we saw at that dramatic pullback and former prime minister, japanese prime minister shinzo abe asass mated today this western japan. he was shot from behind while delivering a campaign speech in support of the governing liberal democratic party

the local prefectural police confirmed to the associated press that the arrest of a 41-year-old man on suspicion of attempted murder, the current japanese prime minister called the act barbaric overnight, a white house spokesman said we are shocked and saddened to hear about the violent attack against former japanese prime minister shinzo abe. we are closely monitoring the reports, keeping our thoughts with his family and the people of japan the 67-year-old was japan's longest-serving prime minister let's get you caught up on a few of today's top business stories. another delay for spirit airlines vote on a mergerwith frontier airlines that was supposed to take place today but spirit wants more time to talk with both frontier and jetblue. both are courting the discount

air carrier. spirit say as new vote will be held next friday more fallout from the recent volatility in crypto lender celsius is being sued by a former investment manager. the manager claims that celsius used the funds to rig the price of its own crypto token and failed to properly hedge risks last month, celsius cited extreme market conditions as it froze customers transfers. the company wasn't immediately available for comment on the lawsuit when they were contacted. and outgoing service director james murray has a new gig at social media player snap murray will join snap as its chief security officer after he retires from federal service at the end of the month snap said murray will report directly to ceo evan speigel let's get over to dom chu. he joins us with a look at some

of today's biggest premarket movers >> we're going to start with occidental petroleum berkshire hathaway, warren buffett's big investment has boosted its stake again in occidental and disclosed another 12 million shares were purchased which brings their total steake to 18.7% those occidental shares up about 1.5% in the premarket trade right now. yesterday, some of them, the big market gainers were in the semi-conductor stocks you recall on the samsung outlook news. the s&p 500's best-performing stock yesterday.

lam research fractionally lower. tied in large part perhaps to the big samsung outlook news keep an eye on those those may weigh on the nasdaq today. another thing with cryptocurrency price joe had mentioned what's happening with celsius and some of the legal actions taken around the cryptocurrency ecosystem right now. bitcoin prices are down one third of 5%. we've seen some areas of consolidation around these big levels, 30,000 now, 20,000 so we'll see whether or not that holds. the bitcoin price lower on the day. keep an eye on that. earlier this morning we got news out of a big trade organization, the china passenger cars association, disclosing that

78,906 chinese-made tesla vehicles were sold in the month of june. the reason why that's important is that represents a record m terms of monthly sales for, again, china-made, china made tesla electric vehicles. so melissa, we'll watch those tesla share which are down about .25% >> we had a winning streak, and part of that was helped bit pullback in treasury yields and that gave a new lease on life to some of the growth areas take a look at the weekly performance of arc up 20% for the week. >> and a big move yesterday. >> for the week. big move yesterday and another name like, i don't know, beyond me. zoom, docusign those are all higher. >> there's this theme that we've seen developing. i hesitate to call it a theme,

melissa, because it's only about a week or two in nature right now. for the longest time as the markets were coming down in january, a lot of experts we have on our air and in the markets talking about this idea that in this environment where you want to be a little more defensive, you want to focus on some of those stocks that actually make profits, generate positive free cash flow and stay away from some of the nonprofitable ones, or ones that have cash burn it seems as though in the last two or three weeks as markets have been trying to, because nobody's calling about them, trying to find a bottom, it's some of those really unprofitable companies, the ones that had high valuations that are catching some of the biggest bids right now the curious point is that it came yesterday as we see treasury yields starting to tick back higher again, back toward the 3% mark for ten-year whether or not that was a head fake, i do feel as though the jobs number may set the tone

>> dom, thanks twitter shares have fallen on a report the "washington post" said elon musk's deal to buy the company is in jeopardy stop the presses elon musk and twitter's ceo are both in sun valley, idaho. that's where we find our own julia boorstin what are you hearing out there, julia? >> well, joe, elon musk did arrive here last night, though he's made no public appearance he made his way into the resort and into the conference through back door to avoid the press he is set to speak here at the conference on saturday in an interview with open ai's sam altmann. ned segall is also here. this all comes as twitter shares plummeted last night on the report that musk's team has stopped funding discussions because it cannot verify

twitter's spam account numbers when we asked twitter about this, a spokesperson directed us to a statement the company had released back in june, saying that twitter is cooperating with musk and quote, we intend to close the transaction and enforce the merger agreement at the agreed price and terms twitter also confirming to us last night that it is laying off 30% of its recruiting team, as the company seeks to cut costs as it weighs out the closure of the musk deal. terms are trading below where the stock was when he made the deal and a number of executives here talking about this, telling me they think musk's mosquito could really bring great value to the company. but that he is certainly seems to be looking to negotiate a

lower price right now. joe, back over to you. >> we heard someone earlier say 20 20 looks good. and we all kind of went whoa we just wonder, julia, whether it was worth 20 back then before elon musk got involved or whether it's now worth 20 because of the aforementioned involvement. probably i did hurt the company a little >> i mean i think he raised awareness of all the different things that you could do to make the platform easier to use, more accessible, whether or not twitter to really reach a billion users in the near term, which is what musk's goal is, there is a sense it's an undervalued platform one telling me the content is so valuable you just need to make it more ark accessible not enough foreign language. butte but remember, guys, the company

agreed and he is legally bound to pay that. even if he has the breakup fee he has other reasons why he would need to use that breakup fee, the fact that he did waive his rights to look at certain numbers before he made the deal. he's locked in here. so it would take a lot to get hem out of it. >> mary duffy is a genius. did mary pick that jean jacket out for sun valley >> complimenting her >> great minds i'm feeling very dutton like, that looks cool. i know that's montana. i don't need anyone telling me, i know where it is anyway, did you go to the pio? >> we went to the pioneer, known for their potatoes the size of your head. it's iconic sun valley >> it is it's a great, great place, made

jeopardy the other night, not great because of hemingway t was a hemingway category we don't need to go into that. anyway, julia, thank you good to have you on. >> all right, let's talk about the broader markets as the major averages track for their second week of gains. joining us for more, sarat sethy. always good to talk to you >> good to see you, melissa. >> the numbers in just about 18 minutes or so. what do you want to see? >> i think you want to see a soft landing that's what the markets want that's what you've seen the last few days you don't want to see stagflation. you want to see a goldilocks scenario where we are seeing grote growth, but pressure on inflation. you're seeing that on some of the other sectors.

housing is coming down copper coming down energy's coming down to 100. so all these things are kind of coming in, in unison, and you do want the fed to kind of look at this and say hey, we are going to raise rates, but we're going to see some light at the end of the tunnel all of that is kind of coming together now this number today, you know, if it's very high could throw the market off, and you could see treasuries react to that >> and treasuries have been key to the market's rally, it seem, sarat, especially when it comes to big tech and the growth areas of the market. if where i to tell you, sarat, does it change the biotech, the arc innovation names, et cetera? >> i think what you'll see is you will have inversion. you'll have the front end much higher higher than the back end

but inflation expectations will be coming down and we are nearing peak expectations tech, i think will come back but what part of tech will be interesting. i think you have to focus on tech companies with cash flow. it's going to be companies like the semi-conductors, companies like a qualcomm, nvidia, or the software companies, i think auto desk, et cetera. but companies that have growth and growth in cash flow, i think some of the speculative fervor will go away but 3%, the market, generally, the other parts of it will do well cyclicals do well. that's where kind of the market's going to be focussed. >> semi-conductors are usually viewed at cyclical what message do you hear from semi conductors? do you hear samsung, good numbers? or do you hear micron forecast

cuts? >> so i would look at it two ways you have semi conductors specialized. i think we had overordering but more in the commoditized semi conductors that's where everybody started ordering when you had the autos, the industrial goods i would look at specialized, higher margin. built-in specific for products that's where i think the demand's still going to be when you have too much inventory build you are going to have pressure >> and are you in qualcomm, sarat? >> we in qualcomm and nvidia i like to specialize higher margin, built specifically for products >> sarat, good to see you, thank you. >> thank you, melissa. >> coming up, an exclusive interview with atlanta fed raphael bostic but before that is c, the numbe

the morning. the jobs report. check out the share of costco, a more than 20% increase up 13% when excluding changes in gas prices don't miss "squawk on the street" on monday. stayun ted we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage.

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welcome back to "squawk box. the s&p and nasdaq, four straight days of wins in terms of gains on those indeces. but we're looking at a lower open on the june jobs report it could change the pick nur about ten mincutes >> it could be the end of offices in holland approving legislation to enshrine working from home as a legal right. the senate will weigh in on that proposed law which would force companies to give workers a reason if they deny a work-from-home request. right now they don't have to explain their decisions. i think it would have to be case by case. there are people who need to leave the house to to what they do >> if you are a ditchdigger, you

can't do that from home. >> or a sewer worker or something. >> a cook. >> there's a million reasons, and we need people that do some really important things. >> oh, absolutely. >> and they can't stay home. i even think that we need to be here if we were home, we wouldn't have the type of -- >> the magic the special time together. >> the chemistry, the rapport. the love the love >> coming up, an exclusive can't-miss interview with raphael bostic, straight out of june jobs report stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site on times square. >> we are.

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welcome back to "squawk box. commodities have been on our radar all week, with copper, what they say? two-year low that's weird we don't have a rip-roaring inflationary spiral economy. copper's pretty important. oil is the most important. but oil is subject to a lot of different things, not just pure, you know, supply and demand dynamics >> metals, it's mostly china china buys most industrial metals >> commodities, even calling something commodities, you really need to be more specific.

soft, hard >> wheat, cotton >> more drama for gamestop the ceo is said to have been pushed out by chairman ryan cohen. gamestop's current chief accounting officer is going to become cfo, the new one. and an internal memo says they're cutting staff on the corporate side as they try to turn around their business well over 100. among today's stocks to watch, levi strauss after reporting better than expected sales, helped by higher prices and strong demand for denim offerings. coming up, the number the government is waiting for. the jobs report is out in a couple minutes the all-star panel is standing by with predictions and analysis please, can you ke ata bathroom break, but don't go far. "squawk box" will be right back. !

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welcome back to "squawk box. we are just a few minutes away from the jobs report let's bring in sara malik.

and our own rick santelli and steve liesman. liz, i'll start with you what sort of number should the markets be rooting for >> the last time i was here, melissa, rick santelli got this number right on the dot. i just agree with whatever rick says in reality it's the reaction that the market has that counts. unfortunately, i don't think we can trust rallies on any of these dressirections on this particular data. we have cpis next week i think we're hoping for something right around estimates, but i hope that we break below the 300 number so we can see some moderate cooling in the labor day at that. >> and clearly, nila, what are

you examining here >> well, the bridge between today's number and next week's number labor force participation has been surprisingly stubborn, and i would tie that to the industry establishment survey because i think what you're seeing there is a structural change in the economy where retail is losing to momentum as people shop more online, and people are making different decisions on whether they want some of the jobs that the economy has to offer so that push and pull, that structural, that's not the business cycle, and that means that the economy has shifted in a permanent way that we should be really watchful of. >> what kind of number do you want to see? >> we think we're going to miss at 2 20,000 we're watching maybe force participation. we've missed because of demand

destruction. wage inflation is a little bit more moderate as youth enter into the summer workforce. we hope to see an incremental increase in labor participation. >> rick santelli, liz was singing your praises when guessing about the number we're going to get in about five seconds. >> i'll go 320,000 and the unemployment rate remain at 3.6. the numbers are out, 372,000 372,000 on non-farm payroll, and if we look at the two-month revision, it drops down to 74,000 so we lose 74,000 over two months okay, let's dig a little deeper. on the private pay rolls, 381,000, much better than expected manufacturing, 29,000, also much better than exekt ped. the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. one, two, three, four.

fourth month in my memory of 3.6. here we go on earnings, up .3 exactly as expected and a little bit on the light side. this is big, 5.1, 5.1. granted 5.6 is the high watermark for march. but we were expecting a number closer to 5. and in the rear view mirror, we see revisions coming, and i'll start with earnings. actually the .3 is a bit lower average hourly workweek, 34.5 hours. that's a bit light and it is exactly equal to the revision, which takes it down from 34.6, and finally, the participant rate in my opinion and the panel's opinion, one of the most important aspects of

these employment reports, but when you consider it was at 63.4 pre-covid, it's at 62.2. 62.2 is very close to where it's been the last couple months. 62.3 last month, the month before it was 62.2 and the u-6 or underemployment rate is 6.7. that is a new low mark, which is good in this case, versus high watermark. that's a new low post covid. the older one's 6.9 in march to summarize, the report is in many ways much better than expected i would have liked to have seen a little stronger earnings, but they matched expectations. interest rates have moved up and that really is the litmus test the market says that this number's pretty good we're now at 307 in the ten-year which was half dancing with the

3% pay very close attention to the three-month versus ten-year which has flattened out so dramatically in the last three weeks. melissa lee, i'm out of breath, back to you. >> reaction in the market is unclear at this point. rick had highlighted the keystone to all of this movement, and that is the movement in yields yields across the board are higher, particularly in the t ten-year we're seeing the most pressure on the nasdaq, no surprise, the growthier names feeling the pinch. we are looking at a 1% decline at the nasdaq. we'll snap that winning streak that we had in the book for four days >> i'm not willing, i think, you know, i'm going to silver lining this again deep down, this is what we want. we want wage gains, and we want jobs, okay >> this is supported by corporate earnings >> and commodities have already

rolled over. this is a backward-looking type of thing and maybe wage gains and, this will cool a little bit >> but supportive -- supportive for the fed's case to keep being aggressive >> but i think it's warped and unpatriotic to sell the markets based on -- >> unpatriotic >> i just mean these are good. you heard what rick said it is a very positive report and we should, positive things should engender positive feelings >> but positive in this means inflation remains. >> we decided it was permatory >> the unemployment rate remained the same. you did bring some of the slack down in the economy. but remember, we're looking for the number of jobs created for the number of workers, and kind of the unemployment rate tells

you all you need to know on that score. what's nice is this is some recession we're having, isn't it >> yes, right. >> 372,000 jobs? in the middle of a recession that everybody has called? because you have a, you know, trade and inventory numbers. i just don't see it. i don't see it at least now. i went on vacation for a week and everybody was talking about a recession in 2023. i came back and everybody's talking about a recession now. but we have jobless claims can be very robust a good job growth in the economy. still coming back from the pandemic i'm not saying the economy doesn't have challenges and serious once, i just have a hard time calling recession with a 3.6% unemployment rate and average job growth over the course of a year >> when i said inflationary, i

was thinking in terms of the strong jobs market being supportive of higher wages and that inflationary aspect be being the pesky one for corporate america and for the fed. would it be enough for the fed in your view if we see a downturn and a rollover in commodity prices but we still see higher wages we see the wage pressure we see higher rents, et cetera >> i think that's a part of it and i also think, you know, you did see the participation rate tick down a bit. that is a problem, and i agree with you on that score, melissa. i think the fed wants to see people back to work. we want to get back to the prior participation we had and we don't really know the reasons. we spent a lot of money here at cnbc to do a survey to find out why people had left the workforce. we found that people will come back in at the right wage. so you know, melissa, you may know this in your life joe know it is in his life if you have a problem, throw money at it, sometimes that

works, and that may be the way to solve this problem. i'm not sure the fed would think that's that's a bad thing >> suddenly we're not worried about a recession imminently, but because we're going along so well, heck, get that fed going so they can cause the recession. and that's why we get nervous about numbers like this, because it means the fed's going to be -- and that's no way to run a country. we got to get inflation under control, you're right. >> liz, what's your reaction to the market reaction, especially as we're on the precipice of earnings season. that's sort of a near term >> the market reaction right now i think is giving back some of the positivity that we had earlier in the week. and we're pricing back in the idea that the fed is here to stay they're going to keep their claws on this, and we're trying to correct some of that little

bounce the market has priced incorrectly, i think, at this point, fed hikes what we haven't priced in is a recession. and these numbers are telling us, okay, we're not there yet, we can still absorb some more rate hikes in the economy before things actually break. what i would remind people of, though, is that the labor market usually breaks last. company also do everything they can to cut costs in other places before they lay off employees. this is something that might be a much more legged indicator and the other reaction is the dollar >> i'm sorry to interrupt. >> yeah. >> but think wouldn't hire people, right? i get that they would hoard labor. but if they're still hiring, that's a sign that they have demand for it, right you know, business owners may be dumb, but they're not stupid and i apologize to all the business owners out there. you know what i mean, though, right? i'll hold onto a worker. >> yeah, the number that we want to see come down first

and then an uptick in initial claims, continuing claims, and then it bakes into the monthly numbers. you have to see the openings fall first we still have a huge gap and those are starting to come down but they're still really high. there are still a lot of job openings out there then there's a sequence of events, but this will take a little bit to break through. >> what's your interpretation of this hot number? >> yeah, no. that was a very disappointing number at 62.2 you know, my opinion, we continue to read that people, workers, are stubborn about coming back to the office. we see labor force participation rate stubbornly low. we see jolts unbelievably high and atlanta fed now significantly negative, which would make it two back-to-back quarters it's very hard to, i think, leave this in any type of logical financial tapestry but in my opinion the old rules

about what would constitute a recession and steve's right, hiring really goes against the grain of calling this a recession. but if growth is going to come in, in three weeks, for the first look at the second quarter negative, i just think it's another one of these anomalies that has to do with the labor force and how out of what being it is with many other parts of the economy, the work from home, go to the office, big city, chicago, new york, still see significant vacancy rates in so. big office buildings i think this is just a very unique set of circumstances. i personally think that it does act in many ways like we have a recession or we're very close to it, despite the ill logic of making that statement when we have so many jobs, you know, we've seen so much gaining with regard to the economy. but i look at technology in particular i look at housing to some extent those two industries alone could make a huge dent in the amount

of horsepower in the u.s. economy. >> our thanks to our entire job panel >> with more on the new jobs number, we're going to have a political panel. jason furman he served as counsel of economic advisers under president obama and now with harvard's school of government and now deputy assistant secretary under george w. bush and a professor at georgetown university where do you come down, jason? it's a very positive report, yet the market looks like it's got a little indigestion from being too positive how do we take it? >> look, i think this job report was, length. it's continued steady job growth there's no sign of recession in the labor day at that. the labor day at that aren't

going to tell you whether you're going to have a recession. the most important is the wage data 4.2% annualized in the last three months that's way down from what wage growth was last year that's much less inflationary than what we've been sieg. the pr seeing. almost all the other numbers outside the numbers show a slowing economy. this shows a comply proceeding fine with mod rerating inflatio. which set of numbers are correct? i don't know >> do you know, nada >> i wish i did. i think at this point, there's no need to think about when we're in a recession now or not.

the question is whether the fed can gain control of inflation without causing a recession at some point and that's where i'm pessimistic. i think that there are signs that inflation is easing but the labor force participation number doesn't bode well for that we need to get people back working if we're going to ease some of the supply disruptions that we've been seeing and that's affected different groups, so beyond the headline labor force participation people have to look at different groups like women women still continue to struggle with child care. and part of that is about a lack of workers so i still am concerned about where we're heading. i think the headwinds are pretty strong >> jason, just going back to your overall viewpoint on what got us into what, some people would say it's kind of a mess in terms of, you know, maybe there's too many dollar, chasing

too few goods chasing too few workers. we have had fed fund futures acting better, commodity prices and copper and a lot of things on that side of the inflation picture have been easing a little bit which makes me think maybe the fed wasn't as far behind as maybe we were worried about and didn't have as much work that they need to do. does the participation rate and the wage issue, does that counter act that and still concern you? make you think they got to go much further than we thought >> i don't know. you look at the volatile stuff, the commodities, as you've been saying, that's looking a lot better but you look at the inflation data, and inflation has been shifting to goods to services. that's concerning because services inflation tends to be, you know, more stable, more

inertial you look at trimmed mien or median inflation, those have been picking up, even while some other measures have come down. so when i look at the price data, yeah, all the volatile stuff had been raising the inflation rate to 8%, 9%, 10%, that's going away, but all the underh underlying core stuff might be hardening and getting worse. that's on the price side on the wage side, that to me is the most telling you see a real slowdown there >> nada, you served under president george w. bush should we spend on a quasi build back better child care bill?

>> i don't floknow the answer. i don't think we need to be spending money right now, given where we are i don't think that's the solution but i do think we need to think hard about what are the policies that will make child care available and how do we draw workers back into the labor force? it's not about throwing money. i think we've thrown quite a bit of money over the last two years, and that's in part why we're in the situation that we're in so i wouldn't advocate for necessarily spending more. but i do think we have to think about this issue in a different way. >> what do you think we got to, i guess we got to go, jason, would you have some targeted spending? or would you just say whoa, we've done enough? >> look, i think we should do net deficit reduction. and as part of that net deficit reduction we can make some investments as long as we more

than pay for them. so, you know go ahead and do that and do that, too. >> okay. all right. of wasn't much after debate, really i don't think there we all have, no one, we just want to get along. >> a good discussion >> it was a discussion are you positive can we be positive let's be positive. >> positive report we are seeing nasdaq futures indicate lower >> and we were on a roll s&p was up four straight days. >> and it may still, it may be five >> may be five >> it may be five, we don't know >> i just dropped my pen >> picking it up later when we come back, raphael bostic that is next when "squawk box" comes right back

every search you make, every click you take, every move you make, every step you take, i'll be watching you. the internet doesn't have to be duckduckgo is a free all in one privacy app with a built in search engine, web browser, one click data clearing and more stop companies like google from watching you, by downloading the app today. duckduckgo: privacy, simplified. recapping the breaking employment dating. a gain of 372,000 jobs last month with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.6%. >> i am pleased to be joined by the atlanta fed president.

with degrees from harvard and stanford, tell us what is going on. people are so confused. is this a recession? is this strong growth? where are we? help us figure out what is going on. >> first of all, good morning. good to see you come as always. good to be on the show. for me, my first take away is that this report reaffirms that the economy is strong, and there is still a lot of momentum in the labor market. that is a good thing. i think, unambiguously, we need to see if people still feel like they can get jobs and have strong incomes, but the other thing that is really important as a take away for me is that the economy is starting to slow. we're seeing the first signs of slowdown, which is what we need. what we have right now is a great imbalance between supply

and demand that is driving the inflation we are seeing. if we're going to get inflation under control, one of the big pictures that has to happen is that demand and supply have to move together. some of the numbers we are seeing together suggests that is happening, and that is a positive sign. >> when you look at what we learned from this report about the supply and demand for labor, do you see them coming more into balance? does it make you more or less concerned about the potential for wage driven inflation? >> may be slightly less concerned, but only slightly. these numbers, much like what i am hearing across the district, suggests that we are starting to see signs of slowing, but just minor signs. what we're going to have to see, and what i will look for in the next several months, is evidence that the slowing is

becoming much more sustained and significant across-the board. we are starting to inch in the right direction, but there is still a lot more to do and a lot more we have to see if we are going to get inflation numbers closer to the 2% target we have as the goal. >> let's talk about what needs to be done here. something of a debate. i think the market has settled on the 75 basis point increase coming from the federal reserve in july. where do you stand on that? >> i am fully supportive of that. last time i was on the show with you, i talked about how, what i was looking for through the course of the first part of the year was month to month inflation numbers started to move significantly down, which would suggest we are starting to see trends content assistant with moving back to 2%. that didn't happen. in fact, by some estimates, things have not changed at all.

that required me to adapt my view about where appropriate policy was going to be and move us to a place where we needed to move more aggressively. if you look at the last, that is exactly what happened. not as positive in terms of moving inflation down, and we adjusted our approach. that is a course we will take moving forward. the tremendous momentum in the economy, to me, suggests that we can move 75 basis points at the next meeting and not see a lot of protracted damage to the broader economy. >> one more quick question, and then joe wants to jump in. the other big day is how far we have to go. the futures market, 3 1/4 and 3 1/2% range, does that comport

with your outlook? >> as you know, i have been on the low side of this all along with the view that there is still a chance the economy can respond more strongly to our actions, such that we don't have to go as far as we might have to otherwise. that hasn't happened. i have revised my estimates to where i am in the 3% range, not as high as some of my colleagues. there's a lot that will happen in the next six months. we will get a lot of data to suggest and provide clarity on how the economy is evolving. if it comes back stronger in terms of moving demand down and supply up, so the balance happens more rapidly, i will be happy to adjust. but if it comes in such that we still see large gaps and inflation stays high, i will adjust up. i will take a wait-and-see attitude. the two words i have been using for eight months now, observe and adapt. that is what i am looking to do. >> articles have been written that we have seen high unemployment and solid output.

we have seen that scenario. we're not used to seeing what might be weak output and very high employment. do you think that is an anomaly that is pandemic related? do you think output will catch up with the strong employment? or do you think employment finally rolls over and catches up with the weak output? >> i am glad you said the word pandemic, because i think it is important we keep in mind that all the dynamics we are seeing are really unusual because the pandemic has been really unusual. it has been strange things to the labor markets, strange things to consumers and how they approach the economy. one thing that is important to keep in mind, though, is that gdp and output responded and recovered much faster than the labor market did.

that imbalance is something i think will have to get resolved over the next 6 to 12 months. we may actually see, this may be the labor market catching up to output in ways that won't look as positive in the aggregate numbers, but i don't think we will necessarily see this as a recessionary issue. that is something my team will dig deeply into over the next several months. wear out in the field now with surveys and connections with interviews with leaders across the district. we're going to ask that question. the next time i see you, i hope to have a more clear answer on exactly what is going on in that space. >> you guys in atlanta have to take some responsibility for all this concern about recession. it is your own gdp tracker that is so closely followed in the market. right now, it shows a second negative quarter of growth. how do you look at that?

when you put those negative quarters together, do you think that will be a recession? or do you look past it was gross domestic income, which has been positive? >> when i talk to my team, their view right now is that this is a very complicated economy. a lot of things are happening on the global stage, which are impacting the outputs that we are having on the economy. what they are telling me right now is that the core of the u.s. economy still looks very strong. that is what we should focus on. and so, while we understand our forecaster is something many people watch, and i am grateful for that, we put these tools together for people to use them, but as you know, there is a lot more than any just one number can tell you. our folks are pretty positive about where the economy is. we are worried about inflation. to me, that is where our focus

is gravitating towards over the last several months. we're trying to understand that dynamic. we're going to try to get inflation down while still keeping the economy as strong as possible. >> we have to leave it there. you gave us a promise to come back relatively soon. we will take you up on that. we will write it down on the calendar when you have additional data. we appreciate you joining us. >> it's always good to talk with you. see you next time. >> it was the royal we. you might not be here. comeback on squawk box. >> that is what i heard. final check. i don't want to check these numbers? they are down on a good report. we will see what happens by 4:00. 21 is not the end of the world for the s&p.

i am not trying to be a cheerleader, but it was a good report. we have four days of gains on the s&p, which we haven't had for a while. we have all been subject to some pretty bad market action for the first half of the year, so i don't feel bad saying, what's ot to like about jobs and wage gains? >> have a good weekend. >> i will miss you. make sure to join us next for squawk on the street. good friday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. june jobs ahead of expectations. 372,000, although revisions were lower. the two-year shoots up to 312. futures go red as markets now nearly fully price in 75 basis points this month.