with about how things are. >> we are going for the longest winning streak of the year this week. next week, big earnings kick off. >> the banks are more of an indicator. it's the week after that we can get into it. >> your right. great weekend everybody i will see you later. 372,000 jobs. that is going to total to more than 2.7 million this january. this is what consumers are still spending. were not in a recession right now. meanwhile, elon musk is reportedly in jeopardy.

it finally falls apart. what happens to the shares when they are off? they will hover around 6%. we will look at the stocks, the story, the trades but first let's get to the market reaction to these numbers. >> right now it's just about how many different crosscurrents there are. how many different storylines positive or negative. that kind of play of tug-of-war is what we are seeing today. to be honest there hasn't been a massive amount of action. the range in that session was up 16 points at the lowest down 33. we are down at 18. they are down roughly 100 points. they can deposit down. again we have seen fractional games today as well as losses

which go to the negative side right now. there is one place however we see more general positivity in these names all have something in common. same thing. aligning with technology all of these guys represent the health care sector. it has been a strong point for a few weeks now. over a one-month basis, this is the only sector that is positive. over that one month period. watch those health care names getting more attention. may be emblematic about tug-of war at the top of the show here. this idea is down 1% now but solid earlier today. again getting the rest of the market and figuring out the inflation data. it means the economy is not in or could be going into a recession. evaluation and how they play with interest rates. all of that is playing out

right now. at one point today many of the stops that go in like some of those less profitable high growth names were very much positive but now going to the opposite side. we will see that. >> it's emblematic what is going on with the market. you mentioned we got our friday update. we have had a string of reports let's take a look back at what we learned. we had the employment gauge dropping into contraction with 47.4. it's a moment engage not an actual number yet. that's what they showed on friday. yesterday, some better news. the so-called support right here showed job openings. jobless claims while they are still near a historic low. they said layoffs were up not up to levels consistent with a

recession. today perhaps the clear signal that the labor market is still strong. payroll was still at 372,000 in june. the unemployment rate was steady at 3.6%. are they definitely going to hike another 75 basis points at their meeting in a few weeks? let's ask michelle myers. great to see you again. what is your read on all of this? >> thank you. i think the market remains strong. this was a really positive report it. great creation with a private sector job now above the pre covid level. you're able to hold it at 3.6%. there is some modest growing over the last month. that was in terms of wage growth. i think it really creates some comfort that the economy still has momentum here.

again, maybe this is a difficult group but they definitely still talk about those basis points being on the table. >> that makes perfect sense to me. that is still in touchup mode. they were intentionally behind the curve. they are embracing those meetings and arguing with an environment where inflation pressures have brought it down. they filtered into expectations. they are trying to fight that and they are trying to fight that as quickly as they can to raise it the appropriate level. whatever it might be. they are in a little bit of a rush and i think they reflected that in the commentary. they are trying to rebalance the economy overall.

right? they want to get some of that inflation pressure off but they don't want to tip it into recession. she says she looks at all of this and still see the overnight lending rate going at 4%. there is no way it would make sense to have 3% if that's true unless people see the economy dramatically slowing with the recession and something like that. i just wonder if there is still a reckoning to be had where we haven't decided whether we can start the recession or not. you can move a full point in either direction. >> depending on how the data comes in in the months ahead. >> look at the volatility in the last few weeks. they are trying to sort out what the right path will be for the economy and how you get that balance. whatever that might be. to me at 4% it's probably high. they are going to be with the

economy being much stronger. they really want to bring down inflation and i would argue the recent inflation data and what they are bringing. the recent inflation signals have been a little more encouraging. those prices are coming down. maybe we are getting a little bit of relief here and they don't have to push quite as dramatically. >> you have some spending data which we call high-frequency spending data. what can you tell us about how they are spending, where they are spending especially lately. >> that's all real time. they did pull data. what we are seeing is nominal spending. they're putting that out into the economy. it's quite a trend.

of course you are seeing some differences in terms of how consumers are allocating their dollars. that's where they are occurring in the area where the season really dramatic inflation, shock. they maybe come back a little bit how they are spending there and looking to spend in other areas. it would be a huge increase in gas prices and it will lead to a drop in usage. which shows that the consumer is able to navigate the spending. it's creating discomfort. they are very aware of the price drop but they are able to spend and make decisions which is really fascinating. >> we just showed some of the figures and department stores where we are seeing 8.5% growth from last year -- there is still broad spending happening in these parts of the economy.

thank you for bringing that to us we appreciate it. >> our next guest says the market needs to adjust to a new reality where inflation could be higher than expected for a while and where the small casket, the winners. nancy, good to see you. you fundamentally agree with what michelle and the spending data and what it is telling us about the economy? >> we do worry. we also have some of those layoffs. it points to an economy that is still pretty strong. that gives the percentage one way to continue on their path of raising rates in order to bring back inflation. we are very encouraged by these early indications of what we are seeing with commodity prices as well as some of the other indicators with the wage

game. that's what the future selection would tie up with. as you know, the markets look forward but what matters more is the expectations coming down. that would be very positive. >> we think that provides an outlook where we can have continued modest economic growth and stronger profits than what they currently see. >> why do they jump out to you at a time like this? >> first of all, evaluation. they are now at roughly 12 estimates about 14 times with the trailing estimates. that's well below and it has come down as well. it came down at the beginning of the year. it certainly appears that they have discounted a lot of that. secondly what we see what that factor is these companies are in better positions to whether

the current situation. what i mean by that is they are more leveraged. they are more leveraged with the domestic economy so we don't have to create much of that. there is more leveraged to strong energy prices and less likely to be negatively impacted by strong energy prices. >> the innovation will still continue in our economy and drive over the next decade. it's something they can definitely take advantage of. >> it's weird to me we are talking about a period where growth is outperforming a lot of things people expect to continue. they have more of a value trade toe a place to go as well. they could rally at the same time. >> we actually think that. they did note that in june that perhaps i don't know if the

growth is a better value. it's very balanced. particularly the growth in the value. what we see is the technology and health care. traditional growth factors can actually increase their waiting because of that evaluation. they are going up and they have traditional value sectors. we think there is a balance here of good growth and reasonable evaluation. that's a way to make money over the next couple of quarters. >> very fascinating. any final words? where would you direct people to look. >> one of the interesting things is we had a company that preannounced a much better-than- expected quarter. and what's going on there. that's where they call it.

its industrial energy transition. not only are they on the top line but margins are much smaller than expected. they are at the top line going forward. that's what we want to find. >> the whole theme has been under the radar. whether it is less familiar a very interesting example of that. thank you for joining us and thank you for your time. >> coming up is elon musk's twitter deal. we will tell you about the potential fallout if the agreement does fall through. the problems they aren't over yet. we are live in oakland and we have exclusive reporting on how congestion on the track is derailing trade. here is a look at the market once again. we are seeing those small caps in the middle. they are down 6/10 of a percent

today. just below 3.1%. we will be back in a moment. ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. (applause) ♪ ♪ opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there.

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4 welcome back to the exchange. the twitter deal with elon musk could be in trouble. the stock is the worst performer down about 4%. the training is back below the share. new york times columnist jim stewart has the impact on the media landscape and the managing director is here with his trades on twitter today. first let's get the details. >> the buzz is that elon musk has arrived. he's going to be speaking tomorrow in an interview with the ceo. everyone is very curious if everything will come up. they are perhaps even more curious. he's talking to the ceo of twitter. the question is what kind of conversation will happen here

at the sun valley resort? i'm here from a range of sources. they have a legal standing. that's when the deal was made with elon musk. that twitter is willing to take this to court if necessary if not trying to get out of this deal. i've heard from a couple of people they don't think that. he did waive the right to do his due diligence. that's certainly something that is working in their favor. >> do you think the deal will get done? >> what are we, 50%? >> know. i don't think it is. after that initial impulsiveness it was clearly one possible scenario after another. the deal if he is self-admitted

what not have been rational to begin with. he never expected to make money from it. it's the emotional impulsive elon musk speaking out. there aren't two right here. there is the impulsive mosque in the emotional must. he is not making any sense. so the question is who is going to win? they are never going to win the deal. >> i hope the deal gets concluded. i don't think they have any choice other than to extract the deal. they need to share responsibility now. this is going to get dragged out in the courts for a long period of time. it's very unfortunate.

they do generate free capital. it's very disruptive. my guess is that the deal does go. they are going to get dragged through the courts for years. >> what was it? layoffs on another part of the team? it's the executive departure. the company itself is not sure that the deal is going to happen. >> that's a good question i'm not sure why they did that but we have seen them come across with that landscape. it's one of the reasons we cut estimates across the board for all internet names including twitter this week. whether it is leaked memos or

different actions slowing down the hiring plans. the companies are very worried about those trends. the numbers are coming down. that's my guess what really happened. there was a lot of disruption over a short period of time. they are in some ways impaired. certainly a reason why the board can't conclude this deal. >> is there any way he can make the deal at a much lower price now? that's something you would have to negotiate directly. they have no incentive to take a lower price they already agreed to. it's interesting to reflect on the markets and a lot of people here have partnerships with twitter. they understand the value. also the idea that twitter is

not accessible. a lot of people here have said they would be really excited to see what he would do at twitter. there was some home he would go forward with this deal and make some great improvements to the platform. i think unless there is an effective litigation you will be stuck with that price. may be he will come up with a better deal and make it more effective. >> as a user myself i would love to see the changes he makes because he does have a good feeling for the users and the services they might need. what do you think? are they going to be forced to pay a smaller settlement? where would this play out if he doesn't take over the company? >> they may have strong legal grounds, the sheer disruption as he pointed out the cost of litigation. there is an incentive. that could be a lower price. that's true if he is locked in.

it's negotiable. the alternative is he's walking away and twitter might agree to a lower price. if he really walks away -- there may be a price that makes sense with the settlement. >> twitter is trying to get as much data as they can. they said they deleted 1 million accounts. it was a staggering amount to think about. we will leave it there in limbo for the time being. thank you everybody. still ahead, on pays for its third straight week of gains point for the first time since november. it comes as mortgage rates have dropped and they are starting to rise again. we will check on the housing trades ahead. germany and india are two of the largest energy players in the world taking very different approaches to russia's war in

ukraine with far-reaching fallout. here is a look at the heat map with the biggest only five names right now. health care trade predominantly off of the top. leading the way. stay with us. right now. and thinkorswim® is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community sharing strategies right on the platform. because we take trading as seriously as you do. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade you ever wonder why people are always on their phones? they're banking, with bank of america. look at this guy. he bought those tickets on his credit card and he's rackin' up the rewards. she's using zelle to pay him back for the hot dogs he's about to buy. and the announcer? he's not checkin' his stats, he's finding some investing ideas with merrill.

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cut with natural gas flowing in through the pipeline. they are rationing hot water. the goal is to build up stocks for the winter. germany currently has storage levels of 63% with a target of 90% by the end of november. it is all taking a toll on the economy and stock market. germany is the worst performing stock market in the world right now down 18% where the world index is that about 50%. the nations have been criticizing india for increasing its purchases of russian oil. perhaps overlooking the pressure that is building on the prime minister. tackling rampant inflation. for every one dollar increase, india's import runs about $2.1 billion that's according to estimates. the former ambassador to india,

the domestic stability is the key priority right now and the prospects of the u.s. or europe punishing india at the sanction seems relatively low given the world is planning on helping these nations. >> maybe the clearest way to show the significance even to u.s. consumers is where would the oil or gas prices be it india stopped or slowed its purchases of these liberos? he put together some really interesting analysis that showed if they were to stop buying russian energy the price of oil would spike eight $-10 per libero. an interesting position the country is in. they are getting criticized for financing russia's efforts by continuing to purchase its energy but at the same time by doing so and taking the supply of the market it is helping

americans lower it. >> the details of what's happening in germany are terrifying. they will get terrifying if it doesn't get much better. rationing hot water. dimming streetlights shutting down swimming pools. the situation is dramatic. they say this is chilling stuff. >> it is. in a way if this were an emerging market and you heard these type of actions being taken -- this is germany. one of the largest nations in europe. usually amidst the strongest historically. they are undergoing measures to ensure that they are in somewhat of a stable position is telling. >> very strikingly different. thank you. a reminder. the global summit is coming up on july 13th. speaking of energy we will look at companies taking active steps. jim cramer will be speaking with the ceo about the future

of america's energy grit. you can register. still ahead on the exchange. problems via team coverage of what role the railroads are playing. why they can become a lifeline. >> of all the things we grow in california legal and otherwise, nothing is more valuable tn ha allman's. how they left the industry shellshocked when the exchange comes back. so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. hybrid work is here.

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welcome back. railroad issues are now complicating things even further. jane is at the port where 1 billion pounds of almonds risk spoiling before we get to that point. >> it's happening because of the west coast having difficulty to get there. the containers are coming in to the ports and they are just insurmountable. you can see it in the latest supply-chain heat map.

this shows you that almost all of the congestion is moderate. heavy congestion in seattle. this is why this is so important. containers are sitting and that means they are out-of-pocket. there are fewer containers for the next shipment and that means prices can go up. >> even the containers that are available go to the highest bidder. that brings the price up. how bad is that problem right now? >> he told me that 60% of all the ports right now are destined for the rails. it's really hard and more than half of these containers are destined for the railroad. when you look at the port of long beach. we are at an inflection point as it relates to the congestion. moving up north -- the pacific northwest is very very dependent on the rails.

when you look at the supply- chain heat map, it is red. yet 16 days of waiting and eight days out of that port. >> a lot of this is caused by bottlenecks. what is a possible solution here? >> the workaround is you have seen more of the managers moving towards the east coast. it shows this intersection where literally the east coast overtakes the west coast and changes the amount of containers you are seeing. what's happening is the port of north folk. if you have your container that goes to the port and goes on the rail -- the rail that takes that container to chicago because it is faster. the port of new york and new jersey. 6.5% of all of the new containers that are coming in where literally rerouted from the west coast and when you are

looking at the port of savannah they told me describing what you are seeing is tremendous amount of volume. they have 180 vessels going to the port. that's what the heat map is showing us right now. >> people just get more comfortable using those facilities in the future. >> once trade moves, it does not go back. >> let's get live. who's out on the west coast with with that fallout? >>, the port of oakland. most of them are exported. they say that nearly half of last year's export crops are worth 1 billion pounds of almonds and still sitting in california waiting to be shipped out. growers don't get paid until they deliver. >> every row you see on both sides of the building are a

shipment that was promised that didn't show up. we put it in a sack yesterday when the shipment was supposed to come in and it didn't come. >> the exporting percentage, they are trying to find ways around oakland. >> there is a little bit of a silverlining. the prices to sell these dairy cattle are selling for more than three times the normal animal seed. >> yes. the halls of the allman's are selling for top dollars. there down around 20% from a year ago. the situation is starting to pick up a lot. it could take about a year or two. with the long contract having expired, growers feel more compelled than ever to find other ways to get their nu out of the u.s.

>> for someone who consumes a lot of almonds, i appreciate that the prices are down a little bit but at what point do these nuts risk spoiling if they don't get moved? >> they can sit for a while. they're not like peaches or apples. the problem is of course there is going to be almost a regular crop this year. 2.8 billion pounds. that's just going to further backup the situation. that's before they can start shipping this year's allman's. the plus side maybe they will start thinking more about those allman's on the domestic market. >> kind of like what is happening with natural gas. it has to increase usage as well. >> well at least on the wholesale side i went to the grocery store last night and almonds are at two dollars a pound. i don't know if you have been to starbucks lately but i'm not

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it has been the best week since october back when it was still trading around $50,000. tanked prices recently we will see but coin down 52%. also down has been the internet. while they are kind of snapping back this one is set for back to back weeks of losses for the first time since april down 3 1/2%. some of the biggest ladders since monday down about 7%. here some of the names giving an all-time high. at the health care theme we have been talking about. united therapeutics also by the way h&r block is up significantly this year. who says energy is the only thing that's doing well. they are up 60% since january. pretty unbelievable. up 20% so some notable standouts in what has been a

very downmarket so far this year. coming up the housing market showing more signs aths ey hover around 6%. we have the stocks, the story and the trade and the suppliers coming up next. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. (applause) ♪ ♪ opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there. sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity...

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the exchange. mortgage rate getting back toward .3% today. high rates and high prices change the affordability in july 2006. spelling pain for housing stocks of all kind lately but we got across the industry today. let's start with the builders. taking a look at the homebuilders it's down about 30% this year with major players bringing low single digits. the global ceo is at the scene. what do you do with builders here? what do you say? >> this is an interesting time for builders. that's not your usual

behavioral context. and what we just had was a great financial crisis. everybody is concerned about the rise in interest rate causing a complete collapse of the home sector. and the reality is the bangs are in a totally different place. that demand even though it's a higher interest rate -- we see continued demand even through this one. that's even in the last earnings removed. they are still continuing to play on very high demand and what is happening. >> you are sounding a little bullish to me. >> i'm not going to say -- i think the interest rate is going to be in demand but it's

not going to kill the homebuilder market the way it did the way it did in 2008. and if you think about what we learned in that market a lot of them have taken a strategy where instead of buying land and then holding it until they build the home -- that's sort of the asset like strategy and a potential downturn. maintaining really big margins and starting to open up which expands the market even more. the earnings actually don't have to get slaughtered. >> okay. that might be a place to go. the asset like strategy protects some but so do the evaluations. even if earnings fall 50 or 80%, it can't be much higher

than the historical average. >> you are absolutely right. that is because if you look historically again, people are fighting the war they have to. anything to do with homebuilding -- we have seen these evaluations. i completely agree with you that evaluations could get complicated and they might still be okay. >> the builders turned to the center. if you're in a place like rocket loan depot. you are down nearly 90% tracking the recent activity. they are down 80% from a year ago. you want exposure here? 4 you are servicing piece of the business. what do you say? >> there is definitely that

conversation. it kind of doesn't matter as people have to refinance and it's that time where you get the mortgage and you are about f lending to all sorts of products and not just mortgages, but also they really are very sensitive to the entire mortgage rate. so their income actually goes up as interest rates go up and they have this really stable deposit bank that is not nearly as interest rate sensitive. so that basically says that as interest rates go up, bank of america starts to make some money and that's the play that we've decided to go with >> so sticking with the bigger guys they have more levers to pull and not having to make a big bet on some of the smaller lenders and servicers. that's the story with the builders and the lenders and let's turn to the suppliers where you can paint a different story if you wanted to, home

depot, lowe's sherwin-williams, they also have inflation and labor shortages to contend with, but if they have a multi-year tailwind from the recent flurry of home buying you would think that could help them weather the storm. >> absolutely, and you have to believe that, we do believe that we'll have continued home buying and we believe that it is a good value right now relative to its outlook and if you believe that the home buying is not going away, then you will naturally have to make adjustments and quite frankly, even if you think that home buying is going away, it does mean that you're staying in an older home and you're still going to home depot. so both sides of that story actually favor exposure to this particular sector. rates from here, would any of

this narrative change for you if they're down significantly that low pressures and even if they go up from here? >> i think that -- that interest rates right now are the tail that's wagging the dog in that the inflation that we're experiencing is coming from commodities so will interest rates really do anything about that probably not so if interest rates pull this into a recession, i actually think that we can see the fed kind of stepping back toward the end of the year and saying maybe that was too much, so i don't necessarily see this sort of prolonged, very high interest rate experience. you know, we are already seeing the 30-year fixed mortgage rates starting to sort of, you know, crumble. you said it was going back up, but it was coming back down meaning it's not quite sure where it's going at this point >> which is true for a lot of investors and for the market

yeah absolutely i don't think this lasts forever. >> what do you think is better for the financials would you rather see that environment play out or would it be better to see one with higher rates than where we are right now? >> look, stepping back and talking as a macro economist it would be better to make better allocation decisions when it comes to risks and it forces you into risky places in order to get a little bit of yield and it means that as a saver you're getting unbalanced and we've had economists for 20 years as interest rates and we do need to get higher and that doesn't mean we have to go to 8%, but we do sort of have to see higher interest rates in order to keep people from making stupid decisions with their

investments. >> all right gina, thanks so much for your time today have a great weekend gina sanchez >> thanks, kelly, you too. "power lunch" will head to north carolina about how the real estate market there could soon favor buyers tune into a cnbc special "taking stock" tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern, frank holland, josh onown and more have your secd half playbook, she said, for the year stay with us

welcome back i want to get to one more thing before we go the spirit airlineses merger with frontier is back again, and phil lebeau, apparently this is taken as a good sign for jetblue. >> well, it could be, kelly, if you believe that this means that jetblue perhaps can strike a deal ultimately with spirit, but we're a long ways from saying that that's a certainty. at this point when you look at

this deal it has been postponed and at least the merger vote by shareholders with spirit and frontier has been postponed to happen next friday we'll see if that holds true it was supposed to happen today, it didn't. as you look at these two deals keep in mind that the jetblue deal and both are a combination of cash and stock and the jetblue deal is considered richer at 3.7 billion versus frontier at th2.6 billion. if it feels like it's going on for months that's because it has been and spirit and jetblue has been rejected and frontier twice accepted by spirit and it remains to be seen and the fact that it's been canceled twice an indication as you take a look at shares of spirit and that's an indication that the institutional shareholders have made it clear they do not like this deal, at least the current deal between spirit and frontier spirit will not even bring it to the shareholders at this point

and keep in mind, both the frontier as well as jetblue as you take a look at their stocks, both have offers that include immediate payments to spirit shareholders if you were a spirit shareholder, one way or the other, if one of these deals is accepted you get an immediate payment even if it's ultimately rejected by regulator which is by the way, kelly neither believe any of these deals have a low chance of being approved by the biden administration. >> okay. so all of this for nothing, then is it fair to say, phil, that jetblue has the higher price so the board would have to make that the major factor, but is maybe perceived as maybe the worst operator so in the long term interest of the stock a lot of people would feel more comfortable with it going with frontier each at a lower price? >> not that it's the worst operator and it's that the management of spirit has been emphatic for weeks that it does not believe that a deal with jetblue as currently constructed would be approved by regulators which then brings up the point,

okay if you ultimately say we'll not go with frontier and we'll go with jetblue how will it be structured and we'll have to divest even more if it's going to make it to the finish line and a lot of people are questioning if that can happen >> phil, it could be a lot over nothing. we'll see. we very much appreciate following the saga for us, phil lebeau >> we will trade three divisive stocks coming up including twitter in today's three-stock lunch. "power lunch" begins right now ♪ ♪ thanks, kelly. we'll see you in just a bit. welcome to "power lunch. my name is dominic chu filling in for tyler matheson. is it a green light for technology apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon moving back above their 50-day average prices just this week the names to watch and to own in technology if that trade is, in