bit of a china headline filtering into it for now. you couldn't really point your finger when hovering below 3%. for me it is much more about the data in terms of the large caps. >> if it wasn't already a big enough week, that is the big one. >> it seems like that is what the market is holding and reserve. >> michael, i will be back tomorrow. >> right now, nasdaq five day running streak is over. 1% and -- the euro with earning season -- get ready to buckle up. plus a covid surge in china. cases are widening -- the mecca of macau in the midst of a lockdown. be prepared for more and more shutdowns in china. later elon musk and twitter. tesla shares are tumbling -- tell us how she is trading on

the steel. we are live from the nasdaq markets. we start off with a countdown to earnings. markets eagerly waiting reports like pepsi, taiwan semi, broad markets ready to kick off with the nasdaq bite more than 2%. the dollars continues its eye- popping climb -- with the euro for the first time since 2002, so how much could that be impacting companies? >> wow. we have been talking about it over the last few weeks. microsoft announced it will be reported -- got our tennis up and they were specifically focused on the average effect of the strong -- very consistent with a lot of u.s. multinationals. you will hear a lot of companies talk about constant currency and they will try to avoid this recent surge we have

had the quarter over quarter and year-over-year there will be a huge impact in a time we know there is inflationary pressure with the input costs of all sorts of things going on and you mentioned the situation in china. all of those things that you might have thought as we entered into the second half of the year that might be in the rearview mirror are still hanging around and i think the dollar is probably the one thing the people do not see it being where it is right now. we have seen lots of other things moderate in their prices, oil, industrial metal, but the dollar keeps searching so that will be a consistent theme and is well telegraphed. that is what you're betting on, a much lower market. you might be disappointed in what you get for the downside because it is pretty well out there. >> the issues and overhangs over concerns are underscored. in terms of rolling the china lockdown that we thought were

over and the continued climate of the u.s. dollar. think about microsoft when they came out and warned on fx. how long ago that was -- >> it seems like for every 1% higher with u.s. dollar it is half a percent higher for earnings. so if the dollar is up 60% this year against major currencies -- a percent headwinds for earnings. that comes into play and you start to ask yourself, what is the right multiple in this environment? an excuse to guide lower. somewhat marginalized. and you think wait a second. maybe this $220 people are looking for is too optimistic and it should be closer to $200. now, i thought the market would rally in the quarter and and i thought it would rally last week and it did not happen. i still hold out some hope that

there will be a relief rally before that, but every day we go by, it gets more -- unbalanced. >> the 10 year yield is holding steady and that is sort of helping with the markets at this point. >> i hate -- being more inverted than it was -- the conversation is more than just a currency translation. the dollar translation is a global peril. it is great to --: european vacation without the griswold except for the fact that your economy is a bigger impact on multinationals in the current translation. it scares the you know what out of me because so far upsides in terms of their monetary policy and even a little bit of an adjustment but the breakout higher to the dollar is a terrible impact and i think it will impact more, some of the

backer disorder we have had out there. it is not good for commodity prices or -- multinationals. it is not good for allocations for the most part so i think that is the big story but yes the 10 year is holding and you keep support around 3% on the 10 year but in terms of the inverted yield curve and what it means and signals to the market cap is near market top and what is signals for the economy i think you probably have more rather than less of this and you have a chance to digest the labor data of friday. it is pretty clear that that number was strong on the headline but not really that strong and we have all said -- again, the job market right now is not a problem. it is not getting stronger. >> the story about the runaway dollar is the story -- control of its currency. to the point where -- i don't know how much that is going to

push in that rise of the u.s. dollar. >> correct. and it is not just ecv. the bank of japan. the bank of england. they are all in an inflationary environment. but again the more they hike, the worse their economy gets. in europe if they really hike rates that italy blows up. then we have to have a discussion about -- or what we are supposed to be calling them politically or correctly. all of those countries come to life so it is a really soaring issue and the one thing about this, where the currency markets is, is where all of the capital flows so -- japan, if japan decides to let their bond market go. they have not done that yet but what people are doing is they're taking the japanese yen and turning it into dollars and buying euros. more than they used to. but if that train reverses --

economy is getting better and -- that is what is not pricing to the market right now. when we go into earnings season, they will talk about the dollar but they are not talking about the continued rise of the dollar and the outlooks going into q3 i think that is where the danger is. >> accompanies are going to be conservative. companies are not going to be rewarded by going out -- cannot deliver on or they have to revise a few weeks later time and time again. >> that was a big mistake revising a few weeks later, that was not a good look. we saw couple doing that. if you think about the abilities that these companies have, if you are a management and you are focused on managing

against your own outlook and your peers and everything else that is going on i think the macro makes it very difficult so john chambers used to say this. the things we can control. and i think that is a sort of market we are in. focus on the things, the companies that you -- they have gotten in front of these things. amazon is a great example of stock that is down much more -- because i think they were perceived to have overspent in the period over the last few years so they are unwilling -- logistic costs. to me i think earnings season is a great period to get in touch with some of the stories especially in a confusing market like this and you want to think about longer than the period where you don't have a lot of visibility and pressing markets like this that are jittery with a lack of visibility can be a really hard thing and for a lot of us as we watch the show we talk about a lot of things that are on the doorstep of the companies right now but to get overly bearish

at this moment before we go into this period where -- i think that is really difficult proposition. if you are a traitor, be double. if you are an investor use the opportunity to get more information about the stocks and companies that you really are optimistic about long-term. >> where our investors offsides when it comes to estimates versus what we should be getting? >> one place i most concerned about is pepsico consumer staples and where you have incredible talent of higher commodity prices feeding into food prices and pricing power and their ability to price it onward. the valuations for pepsi relative to -- relative to their five year history which includes all the different trends of covid are about 26 times expensive. i think delta will report -- i think we have gotten a lot of insight into the airlines and i probably have been very wrong

in the last six weeks of my view on airlines but i think we have a lot priced in and that is both demand and dysfunction of getting planes and pilots back in the air. i think the consumer discretionary areas -- people have no idea where they want to guide and you have to throw apple into that group and that is really where we want to get. we talked about -- stocks in the first five minutes of the show. technically -- really critical levels and they will be certainly a place to allocate capital and we have seen that but i'm not willing to put my bets on companies -- certainly apple despite the fact that i know -- last couple of days. that is the place we have to get -- >> i am wondering what you are doing if anything in the earnings season? >> i come into earnings season generally short and to dance

point i do suggest we be nimble here because the bar is low for earnings. my short but, what is based on is that the dollar will be going higher and we don't know how weak the consumer is going to get. the fact that you have multiple companies coming out to multiple weeks and revise their earnings outlook lower and we look at -- it tells me the economy is going a lot faster than the equity marching. but i also know that some of the largest rallies and history of the market happened during their market. so i will probably risk 1 to 2% of the portfolio just because i don't want to get my face ripped off. >> how much has the street factored into estimates and into prices of equities? let's bring in paul hickey for more on this. great to have you with us. >> thank you.

>> i know you are listening to the conversation and it is all about where we are and expectations so where do you think we have factored in? have estimates come down enough to reflect the new reality we are in and that is a much higher dollar, lower lockdowns and -- economy. >> there's all sorts of headwinds leading up to the segment. i don't think there's anything positive that anyone had to say about this upcoming season. coming into this season. last week all we heard was how expectations are too high with reporting period yet on the cover of the journal it was talking about expectations being to -- but before i came on -- last five days we have seen analysts cut -- s&p 500 companies earning estimates i've hundred times over the last five trading days so one

for every company. we ratcheting down a bit. overall we have seen for the s&p 15 as a whole a higher than average number of downward revisions versus positive and the only factor over the last month that has seen more positive revisions is energy so we have seen quite a ratcheting down of expectations. as far as the macro picture is concerned that is another story but in the short term you have seen a good degree of lowering the bar for the company >> paul, things were really good in the market even before that. the s&p 500 trading anywhere between 22 and 23 and it was there for a long period of time. in my opinion, overextended. my question back to you is 17

is probably the norm but can we overshoot to the downside and if the answer is yes, how long can we stay there? what is the right multiple in this environment? >> it depends on how quickly things start to turn around. we are seeing a slowdown in economic momentum, a reversal that will be more positive. to your point about valuation, two factors sectors that have seen the most negative revision heading into this season our technology and consumer -- bar is set very low and we have seen several levels of negative spending -- typically they have had positive earnings seasons. especially a short-term bounce. but -- after pullbacks that we have seen or valuations are in the upper half of their 10 year earnings. so -- in the short term they could be set up for a bounce as

a bar has been set -- last october we were talking about the upcoming earnings season and just recorded a horrible quarter and talking about how everything that could be going wrong as far as the supply chain, labor issues, what is going on. and you are thinking it is going to be expensive and a weak earnings season but then as was pointed out in our session was -- recovered most of its losses and was showing better performance. this past june what we have seen, 130 companies reported earnings in the month of june, close to 80% beat aps revenue forecast and obviously the aps revenue forecast that is a higher than average level just in the last month the company is reporting. more companies raised items --

130. it hasn't been this disaster like the disaster that so many people are expecting coming up in earnings season. if first impressions are anything to rely on it is it has not been so bad and stocks of actually averaged a slight positive return on the day of their earnings reactions. overall we have seen some positive reactions in terms of stock earnings. >> well, thank you so much for joining us. >> paul hickey. tech is a huge sector it has a lot of components in it. small and very large and i'm wondering about the large. we were discussing the downgrade of meta-to underperform in this after the stock has lost 50% of its value over the course of the year. wall street abandoned its

favorites very slowly and you have to wonder in this environment if the estimates have come down enough on tech stocks that have been the darling for so long that will have the biggest impact on the markets if they miss? >> and they talked about the last to go at the end of the moves to the outside and that is -- before we came on air i was watching the overtime and they were talking about the upside in apple. so there people trying to play stock rocket here. i think there is still too much enthusiasm overall for a lot of those -- 2.0 are about why would companies -- higher in this environment. i am with you. the question is i don't think it is yet. >> i have never seen such a wide gap between -- paul can give us "he wants about the

cost estimates but it will be death by 1000 cuts. small little cuts. expectations for 2022 are still continue to be up in high single digits so there is a high expectation that bar is set and there is a spread between where investors are and i have never seen it so negative. there is an opportunity to be in the middle that might not sell spell disaster a few weeks from now when we are on the other side -- and it might just play itself out over this q3 and q4 but it is not going to all happen. we focused a lot on that right now. a lot of the hints are out there but it will not happen all at once and that is the story of the market in 2022 because it has been one step forward two steps back. >> come back the new heimdal by report that says they are mixing their next deals it remarkable prices. plus china's covid lockdown --

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welcome back to fast money. a new report from red pen shows homebuyers a backing out of deals at the highest pace since the start of the pandemic. the surgeon market rates and inflation are causing buyers to reconsider and homebuilders are seeing higher cancellation rates as well due to the impact. what would the impact be on a restoration? people staying in their homes. maybe they would be more inclined to fix their homes or invest in their homes? >> i think that has been the argument for home depot and loews and i think the affordability factor -- the housing data we have seen most recent data shows -- over the last year 15% year-over-year and down 7.1 and down 3%.

this is an environment where i think we are spending money in the house you are in and the ability to move or find a house that you want maybe not the ability to sell the house you're in at the price you expect, maybe not. the restoration story is fascinating. if you look at the sac, homebuilders eps versus where yields have gone it is outperforming the s&p in the last two months or so and -- to moderate in some cases. we saw some of the housing stock have the best weeks of all in the last 10 days as we went from 345 down below 3%. restoration on valuation to make a ton of -- cheaper than they were going into the pandemic and that is on an expected earning -- goldilocks scenario. i do think it is a great environment to -- someone who is -- those were not buying but i am not ready to say the worst

is over for the economy because -- is a significant and i'm not sure that rates still are not going to go higher. >> although they have come back down and you mentioned this on our phone call. if you are looking for a mortgage a month ago you're looking at a much higher rate and it does a u-turn. to me it is amazing the file volatility we seen in the rates market. >> tenure yields got up to 330 and change. within six or seven or 10 trading days we are down to 275 and now we are back. bond volatility is probably double and at some point it manifests itself in the equity market. in terms of this conversation -- restoration hardware, at least now you can make a case at 12 times next year's numbers that is somewhat reasonable on valuation. a complete round trip from the march 2020 lows and some of the stock prices but i think --

given what we talked about earlier makes a little bit of sense. >> where are you on this trade brian calley? >> for me it is still tough to say. they have said we do not want housing prices higher. we need to worry about housing affordability. i don't think this whole thing is over until the housing market really cracks and -- cancellations would constitute housing market crash to me. so it is not like i want to shorten it. there is still a lot more pain in the housing market because -- told you so. >> a lot more facts. >> the china effect. covid lockdowns weighing on casinos and tech stocks. the details next. biotech, shares of moderna are on the upswing.

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no parabens, dyes, or fragrances. gold bond. champion your skin. welcome back to faster money. take a look at casino stocks. las vegas fans are getting hammered with macau in the midst of a lockdown due to another search of covid in china. cases arising at their fastest rate in two months and another oma chronic sub variant has been detected. the new fallout may just be starting. great to have you with us. the lockdowns now are basically

-- three cities at the very least at this point. they have macau pretty much completely shut down in terms of all of its casinos not operating and only essential businesses operating. when we say that the impact is just beginning it is not economic, are you also talking about social unrest at this point? >> all of that is a possibility. let me say i wish i was surprised we are talking about this again but i am not because covid is still the policy of china and what that means is when there are some variance, particularly ba.5 , omicron highly contagious, china's best approach to fighting the pandemic is through lockdowns. they have had no mrna vaccines so -- aging population and they have been fairly successful fighting the pandemic using lockdowns. i expect that this is going to be a rolling situation, at least until march of 2023 with

many people -- last time i was on, tim said something that resonated. he said a much more interested in policy trends that -- gdp numbers and i think that is right, but when china reports its gdp numbers next week for the second quarter we expect that to be about 1.4% and that is a direct result of china's decision to put pandemic controls ahead of economic growth and so this is going to continue. i would suggest that we invest more caution with china. >> so let's go in a slightly different direction and talk about policy around economic dynamics. if i look at the -- whatever you are looking at. in relative terms, a currency that is highly controlled, is

-- something we should be worried about and any of that apart -- particular lockdown of the casino sector, but are you worried about the currency and are you worried about what they need to do to defend it? >> that is a big question and you recall that earlier in the year there was lots of capital -- lockdown. the problem has been that western markets have also not been performing well and investors are unsure where to go. there's a lot of issues because people are starting to realize that in fact covid zero is here to stay for the foreseeable future and that means volatility in the chinese market as well so i think we're in for a long ride on the currency side. >> in terms of the supply chai , do you think volatility when it comes to the security of the supply chain, what companies are starting to say things seem

to be improving. >> this may sound like a broken record but the last time we discussed -- because this is not going away. places like shandong -- seven ports in shandon. we know about -- in shanghai. there are impacts in the supply chain and that will impact inflation of prices. it is not easy to unwind those supply chains but i do think companies get the fact that they are going to have to find some alternatives and start to have adjusting -- not dependent on a single point of failure in china. >> always good to speak with you. we appreciate it. >> brian calley, where are you on the china trade. -- taking his foot off the neck of tech companies and -- things

are piling up coming up roses for a couple of weeks. >> for a little bit. $200 billion. eventually they will likely have to weaken their currency once again. but again it comes back to the covid zero policy. if you continue to have this covid zero policy, not only -- slow the supply chain but it forces everybody to be sure and that is why inflation in this country is unlikely to go down to the level that the fed thinks it's going to. this is more than just covid and china and maybe a couple of supply chains impacted. if this becomes a permanent thing which looks like it is then we have some bigger issues to deal with. for me i am looking at -- index. etf on that. that will be pretty volatile in this environment. >> that's right on.

you would look at this and say this is pretty inflationary but actually i think it is extraordinarily inflationary to the point that brian just made which makes the job that much more difficult which makes -- in the market that much more difficult. we talked about the prudent price spikes and energy. part of this inflation story is coming from china and that is not going away anytime soon which means the job by definition will be difficult for the foreseeable future. >> and you have been highlighting a lot of these geopolitical situations before i feel like a year now. look at sri lanka. those protests that caused the president to leave the nation, fuel and feud and everything else. this will be something that we see over the next year or so and the longer china disrupts the supply chain and slows the global economy we are going to

be dealing with the sort of stuff for a while and the longer they do this it is going to be worse for the global inflation trade. >> imagine if we see this in europe where they might have to ration national natural gas and energy. social fallout. elon musk is trying to back out of his big twitter deal. how they are navigating that. and moderna stock going up 38% over the last month. how they are -- next, fast money right after this

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go back to fast money. moderna announced one of its booster candidates are showing strong results against these sub- variants of covid. nearly 30% in the past month and one option trader said there are more games to come. like? >> moderna traded more than 1.6 times its daily average volume. a little bit better than -- most active options with the july -- the trade stuck out to me is in the october 250 strike

call, we saw 1000 of those trading for $5.77, those calls are obviously bedding that moderna potentially has a lot more room to the upside in their risking $600,000 and if you hold that -- stock will appreciate more than 40% and that will be profitable. >> while. -- the run? >> probably idp. if you look within a month and june around 105, i think if you want to spread it out -- go in deeper. seemingly for months on the show -- bristol-myers came up a little bit. big cap pharma as well. >> thank you. friday five 1230 p.m. eastern time. the fallout from elon musk's twitter termination. we will

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welcome by back. twitter shares rose tightly after the legal team says elon musk intends to back out of the takeover "invalid and wrongful. it is the latest development in what can be a long legal battle -- making some moves in the stock. karen feynman joins us now. thank you for calling in. you heard the news on friday and you jumped right into the pool and it started strategizing. what did you do? >> friday after that came out i -- just on the idea of what will happen next over the weekend, trash the company, people get really nervous, will it work without him and what if they cannot close and -- stocks and maybe somewhere in the 20s and some people would get really nervous. that is what i thought would

happen next. it did trade down today. it was down after the close but the overall change was not so great. it was down a couple of bucks. i covered because now i am thinking what's going to happen next now. and the end game is too hard to figure out. which is the next thing? i think the very next thing is here is twitter's legal team filing a motion in delaware court seeking equitable relief, seeking an expedited basis, without filing is going to come every reason of why they think they are in the right and elon is in the wrong and is absolute a-team and this thing is going to read so well. and i think it will sort of change the momentum a little bit and make people think wow, we have a great case. he is going to have to close or he is going to have to cut a lower deal, but still substantially up from here. that is the next thing so i'm

only looking for the very next thing so i got calls that expire this friday and next friday and i think i could either make multiples of my money or it could go to zero. >> and then after that the earnings will come out and you are not expecting much. >> worse than not much. i'm expecting worse than not much and i think after that also will be a response to the filing. response to the lawsuit. i don't think it will be as good but it may be good. >> it looks like you are trying to make more on the straight idea. here is the thing. we talked about over the last few months or so, look at pinterest. those are down 80% from their all-time highs. twitter is down six 60%. if this goes away, past the expiration of your call execution, -- made the case that compared to snap when you think about the have the same

revenue base and growing much faster and better management and not all the issues. it seems like this one without any kind of near-term resolution , this thing is going lower because that quarter will be bad and to me the management, the board, everything is blown up and it is over. they will have to reshape this whole company when elon is in the rearview mirror. >> i cannot argue with that. it is all about the merger agreement. >> can you give us some color in terms of what the strikes are on the calls that you have that expire and what your expectations are for the trade beyond that? >> i have no beyond that. but they are july 34 and 35 that expire this friday and next friday. i think there is a reasonable shot that we see in quick filing expedited because i think twitter cannot -- weather company or company is in such disarray.

they have to get going and they had all weekend to work on it. you can see elon sort of building this paper trail of how he will try to wiggle out. it is not so shocking. so that is where i think i can make multiples or -- >> karen thank you so much for phoning in. >> thank you. chairwoman joining us on the fax line. it is always fun to hear her do the stock market. it is very smart. it is interesting to see how she thinks about every step in this is an immediate trade right here. >> you can tell her love of the game comes through in situations like this in both her and -- spot on when this was announced however many months ago and i think both were trying to -- when she makes a comment like this i think you have to listen but i

think everybody would agree the risk for me continues to be with tesla which traded horribly today. i think a lot of people thought as it turns out that tesla might trade up on the back of that announcement and it obviously did not. i think there is still some real risk in tesla shares. >> i think it is about the options trade. i want to be really clear about this. she is saying i'm risking one to possibly make multiples and you have to think about the probability of success. but july 22nd 35 strike call 2% of the stock price of the option market 30% probability that they will be in the money by then. if you want to risk what you are willing to lose that is great but you have to take a look at the probability because otherwise you are throwing good money after bad at a trade like this putting your finger on the timing of a trade is really hard. >> one outcome could be they negotiate a higher breakup the which could mean there is some pressure on tesla stock and investors need to figure out --

versus the pressure on twitter stock. what is greater at this point? >> i think in the short term there is more pressure on tesla stock because on the twitter side you have a potential for the things you talked about, maybe a higher -- these types of things so that is a short term view. the other thing i would add that we have not talked about is the curve of the angle. a lot of people -- thinking he will buy twitter and first of all i think it was very low before this and there is a zero chance he does that in the next year now so -- i'm glad you added the dose trade because that is something we can use. >> where do you stand on this tim? there is a case to be made that

twitter never traded and the deal will go through. so there is a lot of skepticis . do we know that there are no other bidders out there? we know that twitter is not really doing well as a company compared to its competitors. we know that already so is and a lot of the -- factored in? >> i think so. i have never seen more -- than i have. good for her. the argument of twitter relative to the nasdaq -- we have seen all of it at this point and i don't think this is a surprise. >> check out this interesting item we found with a disgruntled twitter employees, if you want a piece of elon musk, a book of artists called mischief -- eat rich ice cream. mark zuckerberg, jeff bezos, 10 bucks a pop. you have to be

rich to eat the rich. 10 bucks apiece. you can buy gallons of ice cream. you are was mr. ice cream man. you could purchase 30 ben & jerry's or two. >> even if i had the 10 bucks, no. i'm not going the.er >> they don't look appetizing to me. coming up we have much more fast money in two. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

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welcome back to fast money. announcing it could not complete a transaction and will return $4 billion to investors. they were supposed to merge with -- deal fell through. i feel like this is a sign of the times in terms of market conditions. >> without question. and they have a timeline to get a deal done a clearly that is part of the issue here. they may say it is about available prospects but clearly it will take a long time to work through. >> they had a deal.

i think it seems like the parties don't think it is a good deal anymore. you will see a lot of this. and also saying we are done because their reputation is on the line. having the pipe investors, there's a lot of things going on here. this is important because it was the biggest one as of the whole cycle. >> i feel like this is a poster child. the facts -- think of all the ones that have not done a deal that are watching the clock tick away, the time is running out quickly. the window is closing. >> yes. and what deal is out there it is great to do right now? we have seen some private valuations but for the right reasons, i think this is the first of many and probably a good thing, not just return the capital and put it into productive use. >> up next final trades.

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tune in tomorrow for a double dose of fast money. we are getting ready for earning seasons with an hour. tweet us your questions at fast money. two full hours of us. amazing. let's go around the horn. tim? >> i will be there. i can't wait. pfizer reports at the end of july -- headwinds but i think if you look at that team, very compelling less than eight times next year pfizer t level two. >> brian? >> big show tomorrow night. i will be watching that. in case you missed it, triple -- >> betamax ic. guy? >> i hope there is a bathroom break between shows tomorrow. this environment works for them.

>> dan? >> i don't like the twitter here and i think snape is monetizing better without all the drama. >> thank you for watching cbs fast money. we will be here tomorrow for a doubleheader. mad money with jill kramer starts my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investments. mad money starts now. >> welcome to mad money. my job is not to just entertain you but entertain and teach you. if everybody tries to get out of everything before everyone