>> this is his deal. we know the guesses keep coming in. colorado is a good one. we'll see if the santoli streak remains intact . he needs to be a little more immodest next time, just say yeah, i've gotten them right. so squawk tomorrow, we reveal that. then we get the cpi, 8:30. >> cpi at 8:30, absolutely. s&p going into it on the back foot. >> i'll see you all tomorrow. >> i'll see you right back here. that does it for us. fast money begins right now. right now on fast, the commodity crumble. from crude's plunged below $100 a barrel to cover's light in the last month, what is behind this drop in prices for everything from wheat to lumber, to you name it, and could it really be a sign we are past peak inflation? boeing taken off of the aerospace giant posting its best order numbers in over three years and the stock popping more than 50% in the

last month. but can you trust this redound? later, one tech ceo's big time warning shares cratering after the ceo tells jim cramer he sees serious headwinds ahead. the potential ripple effect on the sector straight ahead. i'm melissa lee, live from the nasdaq market site. we start off with a great energy breakdown. crude oil tumbling more than 8% today, closing at its lowest level in three months. the drop putting pressure on oil stocks, too. every member of the f le etf down today with apache, has leading the way lower, but it's not just energy on the decline. take a look at the move in ag prices. copper, nickel, the metals all down 20% or more in just the past month, this as we await the latest radiant cpi out tomorrow. economists expect consumer prices rose nearly 9% in june, the fastest pace since december 1981. >> amazing. >> but does the recent commodity price drop suggest we truly had or maybe past peak inflation?

>> it would appear that way, and i'm sure the fed is breathing a collective sigh of relief. i'm sure the administration is, as well. i don't think that the fact of the case. with the commodity market is saying is you have this global slowdown. listen, the crude market has apprised me a great deal. maybe i stayed bullish alone, clearly i did a. down 38% over the last maybe 12 or 13 trading days, which is not commensurate nearly, i don't think, with the move in crude oil. that being said, you have a couple of these names. report next week, schlumberger on the 22nd and i think the biden administration, joe biden, president biden is going to saudi arabia. i think that meeting will be the bottom of the crude arquette. but i'll say this, steve grasso has been steadfast and correct thinking that crude is going to go lower from a lot higher levels than we are now. >> you still stick by that space? >> i do. i think we have reached peak inflation. i think the cpi tomorrow, people are going to look through that and it is backward looking, so i don't know if it's going to capture all the lower prices we've seen. if it doesn't, i think that people will say, next month it's going to be a lot lower.

that's going to shock to the downside. what i think is we'll have a window for a rally. guy talked about 4200. i'm not sure we can get there at this point, but i think i would agree with this -- the market does not give you this many times to go sideways. what i mean by that is we've been hovering around this 36, 38 1/2 to 100 level on the s&p. i think we are due to rake out or break down. my opinion is we get a relief rally and then the floor drops out when we see that companies cannot earn as much as they were earning and margins are contracted. >> i agree with everything steve said about how the cpi tomorrow, if it's hot, people are going to say it's going to cool off because of all the things you talked about on the very top of the show. those aren't fully in the numbers and won't be until july. i also think that it's peaking because i think demand has the

and i did think that the supply chain issues would be improved by now, more than they are. they're not really, but that would alleviate some of the pressure. i do think we are seeing peak inflation. that's not to say, however, that the fed is off the hook completely. peak inflation and this 2% mandate are miles and miles apart. so i think we do get a relief rally if the numbers cool. we don't get hurt too badly if the number is hot. but i think that we are still going to see the fed tighten, maybe 75. i don't even know that it matters, 50 or 75. the question is, when do they stop, and i think a cooler number allows them to stop sooner in the market the love that. >> we've got some breaking news but i want to get your quick thoughts before we get to it. >> fascinating day in terms of the over, too. it's telling you that we feel better about inflation now, we also feel worse about the economy. the inverses, even from one year after 30. >> we're going to turn now because we've got some hits with audio.

let's get to the breaking news here on twitter. julie boorstin has got the details. >> melissa, twitter is suing elon musk in delaware court for violating the $44 billion merger agreement that he made with the company. twitter is seeking a court order to force musk to close the acquisition at the $54.20 a share that they agreed upon. just looking through the filing here, it says, quote, musk apparently believes that he, unlike every other party subject to delaware contract law, is free to change his mind, trash the company, disrupt its operations, destroy stockholder value, and walk away. going on to say this repudiation follows a long list of material contractual breaches by musk that have cast a pall over twitter and its business. twitter brings this action to enjoin musk's further breaches, to compel musk to fulfill his legal obligations and to compel consummation of the merger upon set a section of the few

outstanding conditions. so i think it's really interesting here, melissa, not only are they saying they are trying to close the deal at the $54.20 price, but they are laying the groundwork to look for damages, payments of damages as well as that one billion-dollar breakup fee if it does not go to the full deal. as expected, the suit has been filed, and here we go in the next phase of this twitter/musk drama. >> as the drama turns, julia, thank you. julie boorstin, it's like a soap opera here at this point. you've been trained in soap operas and the stock is ticking higher in the aftermarket. this after a 4% gain in the regular session. pretty much the way you gained it out to be. what's your next move here? >> my next move is i think this will read very, very well. last night there were plenty of a teams but it's going to be very compelling. i think they have the better side of the argument so i think it's going to read very, very well. the stock will trade up. these very short day options they'll probably look to sell those. i think that the next event is

either the response by musk's team, which i think will be good. i think this will be better, what we're going to see tonight or tomorrow, and i think also we have earnings. talk about last night, i don't think those will be good or memorable, and twitter should do everything they can to just pretend they didn't really happen, which they'll try to downplay it, i'm sure. but i think the compelling argument is that musk will need to close. who knows, anything can happen, but i think at the moment i'm staying long. this could change tomorrow if it trades really well. >> up 1% in the after-hours session. >> this is from the day that this announcement was made, however many months ago, both karen and dan said you've got to fade this thing. it's not going to happen. that's proven to be correct. these calls will play off. the only concern obviously is the ration. i don't think it matters because if there are shorts out there on the stock, there must almost forced to cover by

definition. good for karen, i think she should absolutely stay with this trade. >> jim, i think we've got your mic issues worked out in time to get your thoughts on twitter here. >> i think the positive news is that there's no more negative news coming in the short term. i think we've worked through all the fallout from the price. remember it traded up near that 54 level and it stayed there for 4 to 5 weeks. the fact that you have priced in a whole lot of deal on one, we priced in the dynamics on what has been a really lack of another bid in the market, the failure of mine management to monetize their business and to really make more excitement around it. i just think this is stuff that really has a lot to prove in the short-term, but that unless you believe it has to be tied to the nasdaq in terms of underperformance overall for tec, and therefore it's got to move lower, i think you've left a lot of bad news and got it out in the open. >> now the fact of that 1.3%, you grasso, you would've thought what was good for

twitter might be a negative or pressure on tesla shares. we didn't see that in today's session or in the aftermarket session. >> i think ultimately it will be, but i don't think he's going to be forced to honor the deal. i think he'll just forced to pay the billion dollars, the breakup fee. he's not going to be forced to pay the original price, or somewhere in the middle. but i think to pick up where tim left off, the only thing this puts in focus, to me, is the inadequacies of the twitter stock. ultimately you are left with a stock that was not able to monetize when they should have been able to, and you're back with the bots being the centralized point of conversation, which is a negative for twitter, no matter how you slice it. so you could see a relief rally. i like the tarren is probably going to try up loose ends on a bounce but i wouldn't be there for a long term. >> one of the most valuable else it's twitter has is -- >> elon musk would probably

walk and it would trade to wear -- >> 25 or wherever. that's 20 bucks. it's interesting. to me it's not about twitter, the company. it's only about delaware, that's it. that's the whole story here. >> we've got a milestone in the currency market that we want to talk about, the euro hitting parity with the u.s. dollar for the first time in 20 years. let's bring in jens norwood, you think parity isn't the last stop here, it's going to go through? >> we have an extremely unusual situation and you are right, we have a war right next to the eu. we have russia that is essentially trying to create as much pain as it can for the european economy, deliberately. is not a normal situation, and the euro is trading poorly, not normal. it's 20 years ago since we were here last time. last time it was because some very special cattle, this time there is a number of fundamental reasons why we are

here. there's not really any good reason to faded unless we see something new on the other front. >> how about the dollar/yen component of the dollar's move? because doj has been missing in action, claiming they see zero inflation there, and while the dollar basket is certainly 60% euro, the moving dollar yen has been extreme. i'm just curious if you think that's going to give ground. >> if you look best year, initially the dollar was strong because the fed was hawkish and a lot of currencies that were very center to fed policy moved a lot such as dollar/yen. in the last couple weeks we started to see something different. the yen has started to stabilize a little bit and what you are seeing is that it's a growth sensitive currency, especially some currencies that are taking a major, major hit. the dollar has been strong through both phases but it's strong against different currencies, and we are having something that smells a bit

like an em currency crisis now, really for the first time in a long time. >> that was going to be my question. emerging markets obviously are going to get eviscerated on the back of something like this. eem has gone from 60 down to current levels in the course of about a year and a half. how does that payout? because quite frankly, you can't be bullish here back in the united states at a certain point. >> so i think what worries me about this cycle is that normally when we have significant pressure on asset prices, we have somebody who is going to come in and help. we reduced to the global central banks coming in and helping, or china coming in and helping. china is trying, not very successfully, to get something going in china, and then you look at all the global central banks. that still enticing. we are not going to have a big, big vivid from central banks. maybe we'll have something later this year, but for now, the central banks are kind of forced to stick to a hawkish

tone because inflation is so high. that's what's working, that this could be a pretty drawnout situation, with not really any clear canvas for relief, i would say in the next couple months. >> are we going to start talking about -- i don't know what the way today you referred to pigs, once upon a time we talked about the pig countries and their debt loads, and i'm wondering if that's -- >> so we've already seen the sovereign bond spreads in europe have widened out pretty meaningfully this year and the ecb is preparing a certain tool to fight that already, right? so this is already a concern, and as long as the ecb is in tightening mode, which will be the case as long as inflation, it doesn't look like it's coming down prematurely, that's going to be an issue. and that's also something that was different. like 20 years ago, when the euro was down at these levels, we didn't have sovereign bond spreads blowing out. it was actually a pretty

orderly decline all along. from that perspective, this move here is quite a bit more concerning than the one we have 20 years ago. >> wow. it's good to see you. thank you so much. >> thank you. jens nordtveit, tim, i'll go to you since you're the ambassador. when it comes to the em, when it comes to parts of europe, where are you most concerned about right now? >> i'm very concerned about europe and only two other times in the history is inflation- adjusted dollar ever been this strong against core trading partners. 2002, where jens is referring to, and back to 1985. but those are moments where something was breaking. we are at a place here where the dollar is going to force pain and although a lot of em currencies have made adjustments, and they are floating freely, and have not been afraid to revalue multiple times in the last five years. look at the mexican peso. look at levels on the brazilian

real. forget about the russian ruble. look at the turkish lira. these are conditions where we've seen this over the last four or five years, but there's no question to me, europe's pain is something we are just getting going. we talked so much about the currency translation into this earnings season but we forgot about the eu as the second largest economic zone in the world, and the impact on multinationals and what it means. again, i think we are getting this from former companies. i think we're going to hear this from companies who rely on europe, not just because of the currency dynamics. these are extreme levels on the dollar. two other times in history, inflation-adjusted, you should be concerned. as an em guy, i don't think this is a moment that you're ready to start buying. >> when you look at two stocks that stick out for me, you're going to see money flows into u.s. dollar. that means it's going to get worse, and if you look at capri, capri's cost basis is in euros but they sell on usc,

that and and sale. two names i earn. i guess you should look over your portfolio and see what stocks you own have cost asus in euros, and sell in u.s. dollar, and that's a right way trade that you want to be in. >> makes sense to me. i think steve looks great in all the capri holdings attire, number one. >> i thought you were going to say capris. >> those as well. it's just much bigger than individual stocks. steve, in terms of those names, this is a big deal. i think what might happen is these numbers come out not as hot as people think. you get a relief rally, maybe on the back of bank earnings. if the market does rally, i think market will sell off and that will assuage some of these concerns. i think that will be short lived. i think the dollar will continue to go higher from here in the weeks to come. >> i think about companies when they report and they have this fx hit. microsoft sort of one of the flagship ones to do it. sometimes the market doesn't seem to care. they just sort of back it out.

now they do. they really do. steve's point about looking, what do you own, where do they source and where do they sell. i think it's something like target, they source somewhat overseas and they sell here, so that's better. walmart also sources a lot overseas but they have more of a mix where they sell, repatriating those lesser dollars when they sell overseas. so i don't know, i feel like, in a good day, the market doesn't care, but now they will. >> coming up, we are diving in as amazon prime day kicks off. which retailers should you be checking out? bill simon is breaking down his take on the retail landscape. that interview is ahead, but first, boeing shares gaining in today's session. the delivery numbers that have investors soaring into the stock. we've got the details when fast money returns.

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welcome back to fast money. shares of boeing inserting nearly 7 1/2% today after the company reported 51 airplane deliveries in june, the biggest number it has seen since march 2019. the stock down almost 27% this year and the company still faces an order backlog of more than 4000 aircraft as of june's end. jim, what do you make of this

run? what are you doing with it? >> it's a relative victory, again you're going back to march 2019, so this is a pre covid reference. this is also up about 38% year over-year. the beleaguered airline maker, with nothing really exciting coming down the pike in terms of renovation, it's really about rectifying mass certification and the issues. i think the issues around certification, and there being more cautious on the headline is more representative of boeing having a very different tone to their public communications since the max anderson's gabe calhoun took over. this is what they do. they're at least trying to sound as if they are not calling the shots anymore, which is how they've always sounded throughout history. look at the stock, it's up 35% off of those lows. it back above the 50, the chart is encouraging. still a lot to prove. is is very important for the airline sector. delta reports tomorrow, they kind of give you a guide on

where these numbers are going to be. i don't think major surprises and i think airlines have been overdone to the down. >> 50 airplane orders, one for the month of june. 49 were max. that's positive. >> it is a positive, and if you want to get technical with the charts, you look at the low we made in march of 2020 and the recent low that boeing just made since in terms of the rally we see a fellow, you have a nice little double bottom to trade against. i think at least for the first time in a very long time, boeing looks like you play from the long side. if you want to go downstream, spirit aerosystems, that's pr, i think that sets up really well into their earnings late next week. >> i'm sort of surprised when we throw up the forward pe on the chart there. 50. 50, karen. think of all the stocks that trade well below 50 on a forward basis. >> but you've got to think their earnings are going to ramp up dramatically. >> one would hope. >> or they've got to cure cancer and do the max. >> where do you stand on boeing or the airlines? >> i'm bullish on both boeing

and the airlines. you heard the commentary from american today. i think that if anyone has traveled, you see the airports are pack. i think it's how successful boeing has been because i thought they were just going to have to change the name of this plane. i still look when i'm on one. i still get a little nervous when i'm on one, to be honest. i do. i get nervous when i'm on one. >> have you booked based on it being a max? no, okay. >> anyway, i have done that in the beginning of this, where they first started getting back in the air, where i have switched flights. i would be arrested if i tried to get off one once i was on one. so i haven't done that but i have booked around it. i'm bullish on both. i think people still have money to spend until they don't and they'll spend it on travel. >> could you imagine sitting

next to steve? he thinks he's on whatever plane. >> this after he wipes down everything with clorox wipes. >> that was a fun flight. there's a lot more fast money to come. here is what's coming up next. >> primed for success? or will this be a delayed delivery? amazon prime day kicking off, but it's not the only retailer dishing out the deals. the retail roundup is next. plus, service serving up er. shares of service now a real buzz kill. the details on the cbs second half warning. you're watching fast money, live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we are back right after this. at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.

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welcome back to fast money. amazon kicking off its prime day event today. best buy, macy's and target also holding their own events, this as retailers face an inventory overflow and rising inflation. can these discounts really help? let's bring in former walmart usa ceo bill simon to discuss. he also serves on the darden restaurants and hanes brands boards. good to have you with us. >> hi melissa, how are you? >> good, whenever i think of your last appearance, the word apocalyptic sticks with me in terms of describing the inventory build that walmart has. it looks like this could be an opportunity for a lot of retailers to just sort of dump the stuff that they have to get rid of. >> it's really a critical time. it's going to be really interesting to see what happens this week with the deals online, particularly as you mentioned, inventory is all backed up, like beyond all imagination. we've got back to school ready to kick off, and this is really the first semi serious opportunity we've had to see how the consumer is going to react to these really, really

high gas prices and the inflation, because he really hadn't kicked in around christmas time yet. >> bill, it's karen. thanks for being on. let me ask, if you were back at walmart or you were head of target and you were stuck with all this inventory, do you just slash as much as it takes to get it sold, or do you try to maximize, even if you have to hang on to inventory longer? >> it's a balancing act, but you know, from where they are, both of them were just really unfathomable amount over there inventory budgets. 34% for walmart and 40% for target. you've got to get rid of that stuff at this point, because you have nowhere to hold it, and it will back up your entire system as you get ready for back to school. and then the fall, the cascade from halloween, to thanks giving, to christmas. if you're not in the right

inventory during those seasons, you just honestly don't have a chance. so i think they've got to get rid of it now. i'd look for the liquidators to take some of it. they're marking a lot of it down, and hopefully just this selling event online will do something to move it out. >> i think the best day for walmart was when target what they said, the next day or so. who sets up best for this in this environment? is it the dollar stores, some of the specialty retailers? is there any sector you would go to underneath that retail umbrella? >> i think short term, the discounters, tj maxx, some of those guys. they'll have inventory of quality that they're not used to getting. liquidators, channel control, dirt cheap, some of those places. i think you could get rid of that stuff. but that's short-term. in the long run i still like the really well-capitalized guys, costco, walmart, target. they're going to rebound from this. this is a problem for them, but it's a speed bump, not an end

of the world scenario. >> bill, you make the point that walmart isn't having one of these sort of days like target's sale days and amazon prime. they've already sort of discounted. what do you think of that strategy? there's no reason for me as a consumer to be driven to walmart's site at this point, so unless you're a regular visitor to the site, you wouldn't know if they had heavy discounts. i'm wondering if you think that they're actually getting rid of their inventory this way. >> i don't know, it's hard to tell, to be honest with you. there's a lot going on. gas prices are a massive impact to the middle class and below, which is right in walmart's customer base, so that's got to be impacting them. they're probably challenged very heavily with margin, with inflation, as they tried to hold their prices down, and selling online is dilutive to their earnings.

so that combination may have led them to try to liquidate through rollbacks and storage, rather than online. they've got a lot of executive changes happening, too, a new chief merchant in january, a new cfo in april, so there's a lot going on over there. >> i know you're probably biased, but it sounds like you think there's a lot for walmart to contend with that this point, during what happens to be one of the toughest periods in retail. >> it is. it's probably one of the most difficult retail environments in the last 20 years, with what was already the changing dynamic as consumers shifted online. now you throw in covid, shut everything down, start it all up, supply chain issues, gas prices at historic highs, inventory, and when it's not supposed to come, and not coming when it is supposed to come. it's a difficult environment, and that's why i kind of go back to the big guys. they are really, really in better shape to handle this

kind of thing than some of the smaller folks or the people who are already a little bit in trouble. >> you know you're probably biased, you were at walmart for so long, but at this point i'm going to ask you to entertain me with this. we play a game called would you rather on fast money, would you rather walmart or target? which one do you think is better positioned right now to deal with this inventory glut? >> probably target. >> okay. >> target has got less in dollar amount to move than walmart does. walmart has got a lot to move. >> bill, thank you for your candor, as always. bill sammon, always great to speak with you. we got it from bill simon. he rather target, tim. what do you say? >> obviously the gremlins are intended's mike tonight. steve, where do you stand, walmart or target? >> i would rather walmart at

this point. walmart is only down 13% year to date. target is beaten. i guess if you wanted to play that balance for target because it's down so much more aggressively than walmart, but i would put in a would you rather. i'm going to say fast, you can't stop me. tjx, he brought up that name. he did not bring up ross store . that's the same type of thing that tj maxx will benefit from, because if it's oversupply that you're seeing. and i'll leave you with this, to put a bow on it, i think this is actually a positive because they're actually getting supply in, where we couldn't have any supply in these stores before. >> tim is back. tim, what do you say? >> a lot of fun. what i heard from bill also was when i hear speedbump and i hear a guy that really understands where there are problems and where there are

cycles, and certainly talking about one of the most challenging moments in retail, but again, companies that were more than punished in terms of valuation, and target that much cheaper than walmart, probably 20% cheap to walmart on a forward multiple. but both of these companies are so well-positioned. what i heard was someone saying yeah, difficult times, but if anything, this prime date is truly back-to-school. amazon is ready to roll. they certainly have their shipping back to where it has been. if you look at the stock, not the evaluation argument that walmart and target have, but you by amazon here, you're basically getting aws and you're getting the e-commerce business for free. think about that. it's really not priced into the valuation of amazon at this point. i think comps on amazon get a lot easier from here and i do think the stock, which has struggled, is in a good position longer-term. >> you own both walmart and target, karen, what do you love more? >> i like target more. despite walmart on an inventory

percentage basis doing a bit better job, just evaluation differential tim talked about is actually a little bigger than he talked about. so i think it's a below level multiple for target and i think target is at worst an at market multiple, so target. >> cosco's june sales were up 20.4% year-over-year. the stock has gone from 610 all- time high down to 490. that's a pretty dramatic selloff. the problem is it still trades close to 32 times next year's numbers and in this environment that's a tough comp to sort of get your arms around. although i like cosco here, valuation is a concern, i think. coming up, service delayed. shares of software company service now after some weakness warnings. what's coming in the second half of the year? the details next. a steady stream lower for taiwan semi. betting on a big reversal from results on thursday. fast meyon returns. >> get your trades to go with the fast money podcast.

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there's something out here. - nope. - nope. nope. nah. no. nope. - hell no. - no.

these macro cross winds are blowing strong. you're at 41 year high inflation. the dollar right now is the highest it's been in over two decades. we have interest rates rising. people are worried about security. you've got a war in europe. so the mood is not great. >> that was service now ceo bill mcdermott issuing a stark warning last night on mad money. shares of the enterprise software company down more than 12% today, it's because loss since january of 2016. so it's something investors across tech need to pay attention to right now. certainly seems that way, according to the market action that we saw today, karen. you're still short on gb? >> i'm short on tv, this is a component of idv, i think it's down 4% today. i think service now is a fantastic company. he's a great leader. it's expensive. it still expensive, despite the move down, despite the big move down in today's move down, it still expensive. so you know, multiples of the

market multiple, i understand it's a big growth company but still too expensive for me. >> still trades close to nine times revenue, i think, and the stock is gone from $700 down to $428 or so. to karen's point, it's still expensive. great company, still expensive. why was microsoft down as much as it was today? i'm convinced obviously on the back of those comments, microsoft warned on currency a month or so ago. if they start to warn on demand, that's the next leg to this entire thing. >> that's what bill mcdermott was talking about in the interview. longer sales cycle in europe. that's what we were talking about before in terms of european demand. it's a major market for a lot of companies, particularly tech and software companies. >> i think it's a very big deal, and we haven't really heard a lot about enterprise and slowing down, and i also think you're going to see a prioritization of faster roi projects versus these larger

digital transformations. this is something that i think has not been priced into it. the price action on microsoft over the last couple days is awful, and i'm not sure it's directly related to this. i think again, people assessing some of the enterprise dynamics and some of the full board, and we're getting hearings. we are going to talk about big cat tech in the next hour and it's an exciting conversation because at some level these stocks have been somewhat resilient. crm or salesforce doesn't fall into the same bucket as microsoft, so if you're looking at software companies, and again, the challenge coming in the headlines that enterprise may be reprioritizing and going to faster roi projects is not good news. >> companies are not only dealing with the uncertainty of war in europe, they're dealing with higher energy prices. they're dealing with energy rationing, potentially. they're dealing with fx issues, steve. there's a whole host of things the companies there are dealing with that even the u.s. companies are not necessarily dealing with to that magnitude. >> i've known bill for a long time, as the rest of the desk

has. we've all been friendly with bill. this is the most negative i've heard bill sound in all the time that i've ever known him. so that's just a response to how tough the macro environment is for companies like this. idv, karen has been in, i've been in, i'm out of it now. 180, i think, or 175 from the pandemic low all the way up to $450. there is a lot of room for these companies still to fall, unfortunately. >> his interview, i agree, was very negative, and it sounds like a prelude to a guidance cut when they report in a couple weeks. that's what people were also saying today. coming up, earnings season is at our doorstep and there is a ton of big names gearing up to report, but which names are worth owning? we're playing a game of traded

or faded. first options traders plugging taiwan semi, how should you be trading the chipmaker? we've got the answer when fast money returns. i had no idea investing regularly could add up this much! ♪♪ go to investor.gov today to learn about compound interest and other valuable investment information. before you invest, investor.gov.

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that wasn't him. it was me. totally me. we are playing a game. after we were talking about unemployment and cpi, they're playing a game. welcome back to fast money. back to business. taiwan semi conductor failing to hang onto its early games today, the chip stock reports earnings thursday. options traders are betting there is more weakness to come. mike has the action. >> taiwan semi traded 1 1/2 times its average daily options volume today and it's implying a 5% move, which is bigger than the 1 1/2% it's averaged over the last eight reported quarters. the biggest options were the july 77 push, just under 7500 of those traded for just under a buck a piece. that included several institutional blocks of 500 contracts or more. buyers of those puts are betting the stock could decline below that $77 strike price by the buckler so that they paid. those options expire at the end

of the week. that would be implying a move of 4% or more to the downside from here. >> where do we think that taiwan semi will fall? we had the positive news out of samsung, which got the chip set for just a little bit, guy 2 >> so many crosscurrents here, but if you want to be in this space, kudos to steve who pointed out months ago that this was probably commoditized, a lot of double hoarding going on. these stocks want to trade lower. qualcomm just based on valuation alone, if you want to be in this space, that's the place to be. >> traded up on intel's pain was taiwan semi's game. valuation not expensive here. obviously they are the biggest. they will be most symptomatic of semi conductor weakness and some of the cyclicality here.

all these stocks levels, 45% is something i can do. >> mike, thanks. more options action. tune into the full show friday, 5:30 p.m., eastern time. earnings season about to kick off so how should you be trading the big names. your favorite game, traded or faded is next, fast money back in two.

a special second hour of fast money at the top of the hour. earnings season with a jampacked show, looking at all the names on desk to report that. coming up top of the hour, 6:00 p.m. eastern time. speaking of earnings season, marking names heading the action next week. tesla, dr horton, united to name a few. with that in mind, we thought we'd play a little game of -- >> trade it or fade it. >> that's right, america's favorite game. let's start off with united airlines. karen, what do you say? >> i'm going to fade it. not popular right now. stock has had a big rebound. i just think that if things are slowing down, that demand will slow and also that balance sheets are going to have two refi a lot of debt much higher. >> steve, what do you say? >> i'm going to say trade this

one. so trade it. there you go. and this one has outperformed the rest of the group. it's been trading between higher and lower bands on the chart. it's currently at a lower end of the band. so i think this one could actually rally probably another 20, not super aggressive, but as i said before, people are spending money in certain places. now they're spending it at the airline, and all the current stuff we are seeing are tailwinds for the airlines. >> let's move on to dr horton, trade it or fade it? >> some people said how could you trade homebuilders in this environment. i'll tell you why, i think earnings from 12%, found support. it's worth a trade into earnings on the 21st of july. >> that's fiery. tim, trade it or fade it? >> i'm going to fade it.

i am one of those people that says how can you buy homebuilders in this. if we have a recession coming and i realize the interest rate sensitivity which will help these stocks, we are not there yet. downgrades are coming and i think dhi is actually a place where people are lining up on valuation and saying there are better places to be in homebuilders than the h. >> netflix is up next. karen, trade it or fade it. >> i'm going to trade it. >> i think so. it's certainly much closer to trade it then faded. i think a lot is already priced in. expectations are lower. one thing interesting is the interview coming down to be very good for netflix. >> guy, what do you say? >> i've got to say, binge watch stranger things. >> did you really? >> absolutely. >> you know how to do that? >> no, there were people that help me. there's a skip button where you don't go through the credits, that reduces time by a serious amount. the problem is that's really all they've got and i'm a huge

reed hastings fan. karen is right but there's been no bounds whatsoever in this stock at all over the last couple months. so i think you got to faded here and look for lower levels. i hate to say that. >> all right, don't be scared. just a sound effect. let's get to j and j. tim, trade it or fade it? >> i think you traded, i like j and j, i like the diversity of the business, i like a medical product business. is pretty resilient. the consumer-products is this i think is the one you want to earn in this environment and the pharma pipeline is better than a lot of their peers. valuation not demanding. this is a stock you want to own in these times. >> last but not least, tesla. steve, your take? >> i'm going to fade this one. i don't like to bet against elon musk, but i'll make the exception this time. i think he's going to be bogged down with a lot of negative headlines, as he's been with twitter, and maybe he'll say something that he'll regret same, or not. it is also negative on the economy, and a lot of times

you're seeing it through your own prism, and i think he's negative because he knows what's coming down the pipe for tesla. >> super bad feeling about the economy. he's got layoffs, hiring freezes going on. guy, money furnaces burning money all around the world. >> no bueno. can i fade his fades? am i allowed to do that? >> that means you're trading. >> i'm sorry, i didn't know because i would fade that sucker as well. the stock is not trading well. i think a lot of people thought that tesla would rally on the back of everything that karen talked about the last couple days. it has not. leads me to believe that it goes lower from here. >> you're the one trading twitter. how do you impute that onto tesla at all? >> to the extent that he would have to close on twitter, that's bad for tesla. just means he's more encumbered. >> tim, your thoughts? >> i think a double fade is a positive, by the way. but i know it is.

but i faded here, too. i think the dynamic, both in terms of what's gone on with the market and what we are paying for multiples here, where i think you priced in so much with tesla, despite all of their ability to deal through difficult times on production. the competitive landscape in asia, also. kia, hyundai ramping up their ev. i think a lot of competition in asia, which has been a big market. >> time for the final trade for this hour of fast. remember there's another hour of fast money. but for now, final trade, tim, what do you say? >> bill simon got me fired up by target and walmart i'm going to go with walmart. i like it, it may not be as cheap but i think it was knocked down way too much. they are the beast in retail. >> steve grasso? >> i've been saying cell xle, the energy etf. i'm going to stick with that one and i do believe the only light at the end of the tunnel for energy is that when they report earnings, they are going to be the only ones that have wider margins than the rest of the air and space.

but i'm still sticking with it, i think lower prices enter. >> another one bill simon mentioned, tjx should be the beneficiary of all this excess inventory. i'm long that. >> karen used the word encumbered. there's one song that uses the word encumbered, from the hollies, he ain't heavy, he's my brother. go google it right now. dhi in the face, tim seymour. >> so aggressive, no need for that. that does it for this hour of fast money. do not go anywhere. it's a 2 for tuesday. another hour on tap after this, a fast money special edition in two. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

welcome, "mad money" fans. we have a bonus hour of fast money. we are counting down to earnings season. it's on to the big bang. with the most important earnings season since before the pandemic. be on the bank, we zero in on technology. can apple and amazon, the technology titans, pull off a rebound? we have a double-barreled dive into consumerism. look at the restaurants, speaking about the state of retail in the face of so