welcome, "mad money" fans. we have a bonus hour of fast money. we are counting down to earnings season. it's on to the big bang. with the most important earnings season since before the pandemic. be on the bank, we zero in on technology. can apple and amazon, the technology titans, pull off a rebound? we have a double-barreled dive into consumerism. look at the restaurants, speaking about the state of retail in the face of so many

headwinds. will get right to it now. i have a whole slate of reports coming from j.p. morgan to delta anti-one. things get more heated next week, when we hear from the likes of netflix, j&j, and more. and with continued high inflation, strengthening dollar, and the fears of a looming recession, what should investors be listening to when a company's report? >> it is guidance. it's not what this quarter was, that what they see going forward. jamie was big for j.p. morgan. it will be interesting to see if he doubles down about the comment on hurricanes, or if he backs off of it. for me, is not necessarily what they are reporting, it's what they are seeing going forward. >> i agree exactly with that. it's like if you had a great quarter, doesn't matter, ideographic order, you'll get penalized for that, you'll get penalized for your guidance, which will likely be soft as

well. it is a tough take for that. we'll see that phenomenon of competitive nature. will say walmart comes up first, they don't do well. target will trade down. target comes out and doesn't do well, they will trade down on that. they will be penalized for the same thing. >> specifically in the guidance, what line items we listen four works to make it as demand side, it's topline. in the numbers we have just gone through during the last earnings season, part of the dynamic to target and walmart, it was a marginal dynamic. it was inventory related. this is now all about demand. i want to hear about the consumer. where is demand? where are we? that is where companies need to be pricing. we know about the dollar headwinds and margin pressures. we know about inflation. we don't know about demand. that is what we want to see. it is employer. i thought last quarter was more nuanced as we dealt with the

supply chain meeting the inflation. >> last quarter, there was a hope that the supply chain issues would straighten out. here we are this week, learning about more lockdowns in china, and whether or not that will be extended. that is not good, for those outlooks. companies will not be rewarded for saying it's getting better, and a lockdown happens. >> i think you really have to understand, where the stocks you own are generating their revenue from. margins are going to be in question. supply chains will be in question. the dollar will be the most in question. i think it is too early for the dollar to produce earnings. you have to pay attention to the guidance, to what they say about margins. the companies that have held

their margins will be the most profitable. those are the ones you want to buy. we have gotten through, hopefully, that thick of a lot of these things. the dollar is the headwind, currently, but that has subsided. pay attention to margins, and where they are at for the companies you own. they make the set up is important. during the course of the quarter, we are down 400 s&p 500 points. what is the setup going in? within certain sectors, there are steeper pullbacks than others. >> i think that is fair. i think that is exactly the right russian to ask. if you go back a couple quarters, i would've said this that up for facebook was extraordinary to be along the stock. you can get great headspace here, you can see it go down another 10 to 15%.

other things to look at, you have loan loss provisions. we will hear about that going forward, as far as the health of the consumer. >> not too long ago, we talked about the reserve releases helping the banks. now it is the opposite going on. see mccarty write that in? >> would price a lot in. there is some reserve releases. when you combine that with the loan loss provisions, you get a smaller number. it will be about the commentary about the economy. i think we will see net interest income improving, as rates have been higher. they are telling you they will have lower net interest. we have better margin stuff. the big money center banks, i think trading revenue will be down. i think investment banking revenue will be down. i hope that things are priced in. it is not a shock. hopefully they are priced in.

i like it when things going to earnings, having treated poorly. it is a bang up set up now. >> i would be careful with companies that were defensive over the last couple of orders. i don't like evaluations in those companies. i think the dynamics that made pharma defensive, we talked about tonight. i think there are big hits to some parts of the regional sales dynamic, whether it is doll pressure or not. you'd be careful about what has worked over the last couple orders. in terms of what hasn't, we have growth names, references on facebook. it is not really a growth stock, but it is categorized under technology landscape. arguably, you should have more growth. some of the picketing alja kunc these are places where you will have some defensiveness. i don't think we heard the type of demand warnings out of apple or microsoft that i want to hear before it is all clear.

i think some of the high, multiple tech names have endured a lot. is not to scoop them up with both hands. the big dynamic is the consumer staples stocks are not cheap. the pharma companies are not cheap. that is something to be careful of. stomach steve, why would you be short on xle? >> people looking through that, on what can be better. with earnings, you want to see what is leading and what is lacking. earnings are a lagging indicator. it is always backward looking data point. where do things go that are better for them going forward? we have seen commodities crack. that will hit their bottom line. i will be looking through where you see them now, and where it

will be. diamond, zuckerberg, muscat, and mcdermott, how many ceos will come out and say, macro headwinds are slamming our stocks, and economy. you don't want to invest in that market. >> we are looking to watch out for value tracks. chris harvey is the head of equity strategy at wells fargo securities, it is nice to see you. where are the traps, in your view? >> they are everywhere. we talk about value traps, the early cyclical, they are trading up to five times, earnings, not revenues. you are seeing this and homebuilders and chemicals. it is really across the board. this is a place we would stay away from. if you get a pop in these names, these are names want to take out of the portfolio. stomach only concern i have had, in terms of credit, in the form of high-yield, this has been trading sideways recently.

that's one thing i focus on. is that a concern that credit is the last to go in this domino effect of the market? >> credit is a concern. we want credit. we watch how it trades. the other thing is, if we are right on this, cyclicals are tied to high-yield. if the earnings go down, if there is a derating, you should see that on credit. one rule reinforces the other, and is not a great situation. they may think you for being on. we are seeing they have cyclical multiples. these are low multiples, where things are bad, and counterintuitively, they are higher. how much do you think this is going in, or they will come down, so it is and what we think it is? >> okay, don't normally talk about stocks. i don't want to trip myself up. today, i looked at x. it is

trading at two times earnings. with the market is saying is, those earnings, in 3 to 6 months will be much lower. the multiple you're looking at is five times of what it is. i cannot repeat us enough, it is late in the cycle. these ones are hard to defend. earnings will be rated down. this is a place we would stay away from. this is the place that we would rotate out of. >> i to do a double take when i read the notes, and i saw your s&p 500 target is 715. that is quite a ways from here. is that accurate x we need to see big tech pulling its weight here. what sort of earnings set up are we looking at? >> a couple of things, just on the number, and i will get into the question. as far as the number, last year, we were expecting the melt up.

this time we came in with the third or fourth on the street. we do expect a 10% pullback on the bear market. we just were not bearish enough. as a number too high? possibly. we are saying we don't think you can make money. to your point, it will be in the growth names. what we are seeing is indiscriminate selling in the growth names. we have a lot of these trading at reasonable prices. anywhere from 14 times to 28 times for secular growers. this is where we want to start to flip our money. this is an environment where growth will slow down. the economy will likely go into recession, and both will work. this at the margin is where you want but your dollar. we think of technology, the biggest, within the group is apple. that is more of a discretionary

stock. you talk about a slowdown in the economy and the consumer, doesn't that stock and get caught up in that? stomach how much of your apple products are discretionary? you probably have a ton of them. what we worry about, as far as a consumer, we think a consumer recession is coming. what we have said is the dollar sheet is strong." cordova is tied up in the equity market. equity is down 20%, that will weigh on sentiment. that does weigh on discretionary spending, and the economy. catchphrase here, the u.s. economy, the equity been on the u.s. economy has never been higher. getting back to apple, the apple products, yes, they are discretionary, but not as much as you think. at the end of the day, what we want to companies more stable earnings. we want to gravitate to certainty. we think that is what the market will pay for. some of the companies aren't technology. this is on the consumer side. what we are seeing is indiscriminate selling.

many growth managers are having a difficult time. what we want to do, we want to capitalize on that. >> it is good to see you, thank you. on the one side, you have names like apple, which could be caught up in the slowdown. it google, and meta, his main source of revenue our ads. you'll see the slowdown in gdp, and a slowdown in revenue. you also have good balance sheets for all of these names. >> i don't think the balance sheets are it at all. for many companies, they fortify themselves over the last few years. they did the right thing. it is about what the demand cycle looks like. in terms of evaluations, what do they look like? in terms of apple, katie is not saying to sell apple, but for the first time in a long time, she has been cautious on the name. there are people out there that think apple is the last shoe to drop. july 26, they report earnings.

i will stand by this, i think that will happen.>> steve? >> for me, when you look at the bottom, i said this before, is not what people are selling the growth names, with exorbitant multiples comments when they sell apple, that is when you can finally call it the bottom. i don't think we are at the bottom of the overall market. when i look at the stoplight apple, down 17% and google is down 21%, and meta is down 51%, it shows you how investor confidence is completely lost with meta. there holding on to google and apple , they will have a death grip on it, but meta is not something i would invest in right now. until we see apple aid, i don't think we can call at the bottom

of the market. >> i think you are also in that camp, tim? >> i am. i am concerned that we have not gotten the demand warning out of meta. we got something from enterprise, spend. it is critical for microsoft and google. when i hear chris say, he thinks the consumer recession is coming, i don't know how we get to the place where the market can rally. i don't know how we get to the place where the market can rally 25% in the next 5.5 months. the real key, where you are finding companies that may or may not be out of the throws. as you know, and viewers know, companies like ford and gm, and disney, that are cheaper multiples, and disney, relative to the last few years, these are companies were adding to. if anything, we have seen demand in the names. we got updates from ceos

recently, giving you some sense that the demand still exists for their products. these are the places way can be more aggressive, places where you can be placed in some pain. some of the cyclical stuff is based on reopening. i think thanks, on some level, but airlines, and the transportation, and travel leisure, are places we have not seen the companies price back in the customer base at full steam. coming up, the real read on retail. live co joining us to give us his take on this space, and why you may want to look elsewhere for opportunities? have a lot of names gearing up to report results. what can you expect? we breakdown the trades with a special edition of fast money returns. finding the perfect developer isn't easy. but, at upwork, we found her.

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money". tech will be front and center. with early warnings from snape and microsoft, what should we be prepared for? the plot thickens. the other cautionary words from bill mcdermott. >> to me, in terms of evaluation, when you can get drunk friend is google. on evaluation alone, it is a compelling story. the problem is, add spending. the key to this whole thing, does microsoft have a demand problem going forward? did one on currency a month ago, are they warning on demand? i can be very problematic. what you think about add spending? >> it will be lower. willoughby lower based on anticipation? >> microsoft, on cloud, if what we just heard is the case, they have every reason to believe it

is, microsoft has more leverage to the cloud and google. i must control with google and meta. >> steve? >> i am not comfortable with meta at all. i don't think they know where they are going. it is hard for investors to follow. there is still an earnings machine. people are looking through that, because they are not sure what the strategy is. it has not been translated from management, so that it is in a coherent and understandable fashion that we can invest around. google, i would be a purchaser there. i still own apple. i would be there. think if you look at these stocks, you know how i look at them, based on the february 2020 level. whether that is level or not, doesn't matter. many are very high above that

level. snape is not. when you look at snape, tik tok, sucked up all the air in the room. >> all right, tim, you said you want to hear the demand warning from big tack. what if companies come out and say, things are fine, does it make you feel better? >> not really. it's not that i don't believe them, you did rightly label apple as a consumer discretionary. it is not a staples company or a hardware company. i don't think either side of the business, hardware or software services, some analysts assess at the services business will be under a bit more pressure. the valuation doesn't make sense. is the best company in the world. it's not like the sky is falling. the balance sheet is pristine. they will continue to innovate. not here and now.

cloud business is more important, this is a $100 billion run rate in cloud. this is a massive, massive business. they grew 29% last year. it will not go 29% this year. i think it will go half of that. this is a 50% plus, international revenue story with more dollar pain ahead than they have announced. meta is the one, with communication, they are dialing back the message he to spend as it relates to the metaverse . with the digital ad business, they are the juggernaut. nobody will knock them off the mantle. this is a massive margin business. i think the tone around meta, i don't love it. i don't like the company or the service , but i think the stock has the ability to rally coming

out of these numbers. it's to make you do agree with tim as far as a dislike for the product. mciver does saying. i disdain facebook. it's back to his point, they dial back the rhetoric. this stock is not treated well since they made that pivot. i did mention facebook earlier, in terms of the huge move lower. it looked like a complete value two earnings ago. you can make a coherent argument on valuation. if we played the game, we played 5:00, would you go facebook or google? google with a market multiple with growth in front of them makes the most sense. coming up, the former retail ceo will join us to dig into the retail space. why he says now is not the time to be bullish. one top alice says a group is looking attractive. he braced on the call in a few

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welcome back to a special edition of "fast money". son is down three quarters of a percent. the group wants 31% this year, on slowing consumer demand, and a growing inventory. there is a that earnings season could feel more trouble for the sector. let's bring in one of retailers ceos. he is now the ceo of an apparel company, alex. great to see you, it's been a while. >> thank you, it is nice to see you. as they make you say there is no reason to be bullish on retail, is horrible coming from 70 in the industry now i'm a tell us why. is to make these are my opinions, the environment is in

really difficult. i am seeing this and hearing it, anecdotally. we have been feeling it over the last week or two. what you are seeing is enormous discounts on merchandising, because there are inventory gluts from what i hear. i speak to a lot of people, i like to study the industry. i would be concerned >> we have big sales and discounts, it is amazon prime day, and target dollar day, it just reminds people, i think, of the fact, there is a lot on sale. i think it has been a factor over the last few years. it is an issue of why pain price, if i can get it on sale?

>> we are being very defensive about business. right now, i think it's the right thing to do. >> thank you so much for being on. we love hearing your thoughts. you have been around the industry a long time. you've seen many cycles. when you think about this one, you think that other cycles you have been through, how long does it take for this to shake out for inventory issues to recede, and get back to a more normalized promotion, and more confidence that the consumer will be there? >> i don't really have a crystal ball on that. my opinion is worth whatever anyone's opinion is. i think the environment in america and the world, is as tough as i have seen it. i am not an economist. i am not an analyst.

what is in the air, it has been very difficult. the pricing is very difficult. the increase in fabrics, i look at the retail prices, and i am stunned. it was no accident today, or no surprise, that there are huge discounts you are seeing, up to 70% here, there, and everywhere. a lot of people got bullish. post pandemic, it has been very hard to figure out where to invest your dollars. i would say this, you go into a store today, you go online, there are 50 more items then you need. if you look in the back of me, this is a men's collection. it is tough to shop. we have cut back on style counts, dramatically. why?

because the winners win, and the stragglers cost you plenty of money. you cannot bet on every horse in the race. i don't know when it will end. i'm concerned about everything i see and feel. i also think, the products out there, that is what drives retail business. products are number one, king and queen. that takes merchandisers and designers to create that. i don't see a big emphasis on products, to go out there and shop. the product is not great, in a way. i think the industry has a lot of senior executives, that perhaps don't have the experience. i have done this for 110 years. [ laughter ]i think it is a big factor. you cannot discount product. you go to a restaurant, you want good food a good chef.

>> this is fine, it is critically important. you have to start with good product, and it is always the most important thing. i think a lot of people forget that. >> people have been saying, stores will go out of business, there is no room in this environment. is this the environment that shakes out common weeds out some of the weaker players? i'm also thinking, specifically of a company you used to run, the gap. the ceo just step down. is there room in this environment for a company like the gap? >> there is room for any company that does it well, that excites the customer, that is innovative and creative, with great goods. it is not easy. gap is not immune to the

environment we are in today. it is always about leadership. it is always about intuition. it is also about operating partners and marketing. i always respected them. the executive chairman is a wonderful guy, bobby martin. he has a big challenge ahead. turning it around, first of all, this area is not great. it gets so bureaucratic. i try to keep the jobs i have had, small, intimate, and micromanaged. i don't know, cannot answered what they do. it can be done, all the big, specialty companies, they are not immune to what is going on. i have a one track mind, and have the goods. do it the right way. you will win.

i think they are up for a big challenge, as are the rest of the companies. thank you so much for joining us. thank you, thanks a lot. >> in terms of retail, how do you think about if there will be some sort of shakeout? what about the weather during the inventory, supply-chain issue, and others. assuming those are some good looking fashions. anytime he wants to outfit me, i am ready to go. you have a dynamic amor the inventory trends are well documented. some of the issues on logistics, and things pushing a lot of the margins lower, are things that are priced in. i think the consumer, where

they are saturated, something we have not really priced in. some of the trendy we are talking about, this is difficult for department stores. as much as i have been bullish, it's hard for me to see how the environment gets better for them. the good news for retail right now, the king and queen are probably nike and lemon. we got data points and earning points from them. they talked about china, and those dynamics. it was the neutral guide. that is a victory. there are folks navigating. the folks that have the ability to go, and have the retail presence, are the ones in a better position here. it is a tough place. the discounting we are all accustomed to, we will likely get more but now, due to the inventory levels. >> just have nikki drexler on, he created this gigantic thing out of nothing. he had a crew, the catalog was

revolutionary. to me, there is the shakeout coming, like you said. you have to look at the balance sheets. bed bath and beyond, not so good. that is where you to look to see who survives first. >> he talked about innovation, and what is at the center of the hub, it will be augmented in virtual reality. you think about amazon, is that a natural fit for that. one last thing, the retailers will be in the shakeout list. these will be the ones that fail. check out all the financials getting ready. what names should you be banking on? have restaurant spots getting grilled this year. they're getting grilled. >> i can't take credit for that

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welcome back to the special edition of "fast money". we are kicking off with j.p. morgan. the stocks been under pressure for most of the year. bad news is present the results. jeff hart is the senior research analyst. it is good to see you. >> were just talking about guidance. what is your sense of what the environment has been light for banks? what will the guidance sound like? >> we get two things out of the

guidance. it is good to be conservative. the second, i think we will get some problems with credits. [ indiscernible ] we looking at how bad can they get? one of the big focal points with investors? i don't know if we will get much for answers. >> we talk about the yield curve converting. doesn't make that big of a difference? are you watching that for your forecast? >> not so much so, the back review is tough.

this is a tough place to be. we tend to look at the five- year lead. this gives you a better sense of how this affects the bank. hey jeff, interesting plant over your shoulder, by the way. >> in terms of the breakdown between the regional and the money center banks, is one better prepared to weather this timeframe? look at the potential losses, i think i know the answer. is there a way to be tactical as you look at the entire sector? >> we know the traditional bank is strong. >> it matters more than ever

now. if we are in the tough economic environment, yet to defend the bottom line, while investing in marketing and technology. >> right now, we are seeing this coming from the big banks. that is a bit unusual. thank you for being on. to the point about credit, you think they should be proactively conservative? even though we are not seeing it now, i was seeing a checkup in credit losses? >> i would like to see that.

>> we are hitting this at the end of the leases. j.p. morgan sets the tone. i think if they came out with more meaningful reserves, that would go positively. it would show their preparedness. as you look forward, one of the pushback from investors is a consensus estimate with credit losses. make the investor thinking out there is as be better than that. >> as we direct the fourth quarter in january, j.p. morgan came out and said this is going up. i think they let off with that, it might bode well for the market. >> it is good with you, thank you. that is jeff hart.

the potential upside is there. >> we talked about goldman sachs a few weeks ago, they could trade their way out of the quarter. i don't know if they will be rewarded for that. j.p. morgan sets up the best. i'm sure karen would echo this, 35% on the decline it's october. this is about as cheap as you will get in quite some time. you will see the relief rally, which could take the broader market higher. >> you want to see the banks taking reserves. >> made an interesting point, they can't just be overly conservative. this is a tightly regulated thing, and how much you can reserve. it would be good if they could push it a little. >> i can't buy banks going at what i think will be a recession, whether it is shallow, garden-variety, or all of the above. you will have less business loans, less mortgages, less trading profits, less business

and economic activity. all of them are down 20 to 30%, year to date. the odd thing is, wells fargo has outperformed on a relative basis. if you're going to buy bank, i would buy wells fargo, silly as it sounds. >> [ laughter ] is to make it does sound kind of silly. what you think of that strategy? >> i look at the money center banks and the commercial loan growth. i look at the higher rate. these banks have not had rates and how long? the profitability that people are not expecting, with companies and banks with balance sheets that have never been better. jamie talks about storms. yet prepare for storms and put money aside. you have a dynamic, with the profitability of banks is underappreciated here. what kind of recession we have?

i'm not sure. to be president? i'm not sure. i feel like we priced in a lot. we look at the drawdowns to the guide references, these are the types we have seen through much nastier appearance. we are highlighting concerns around credit. that is the big unknown. i don't think people of banks getting away from them. if you are an investor, and you are picking some of the names, i think bank of america sets up better on valuation. you have opportunities here. >> up next on the special two hour addition of "fast money", we are cooking up restaurant trades. we look at names i can turn around. if you have questions, we have answers, we will te akyour tweets. check out the nasdaq 100's biggest gainers. we have much more "fast money", straight ahead . (vo) this is more than just a building. it's billion-dollar views. perfectly located.

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welcome back, stocks kicked off earnings next week. some names are looking for a turnaround. kate rogers is the details. it has been a rough first half of the year for the restaurant sector. shake shack, wing stop, denny's, and brinker international. the names of the best are fast food names like donald's, and restaurant bands. mcdonald's did well in the last recession. recessions concerned dominate the storyline. we did hear from companies like mcdonald's touting pricing power in earlier quarters. we want you to see if the power sticks as they were wrecked grapple with record high inflation, considering cutting back.

labor is a concern for some companies. dominoes, big pandemic winner, struggled with drivers in recent quarters, impacting the ability to deliver pizzas. carrier business is less labor intensive. some topics named cater to a higher income demographic, that are less price sensitive. we'll see how they do. with several wing stop. the ceo says there is deflation and wing prices. that is another name to keep an eye on. thank you. that is kate rogers with the restaurant beat. do you think people won't spend due to the recession being on the way? >> if the recession is on the way, you will continue to purchase meals for the family of mcdonald's. >> i think they will be safe. the biggest had scratcher for me was the performance on a yum

china. they had the zero covid-19 policy, but you are allowed to go out to a yum facility. i don't understand that one. that has outperformed the entire space two is in there. why make it more difficult? the people of higher food cost, stick to where you can get the most bang for your buck. >> i love a good burrito blowout . where almost 2 hours into the show, for me to say that is problematic. i was at this, [ indiscernible ] has 32% eps growth. i think this makes it a reasonable stock in this environment. >> starbucks? soon i can tell you what, i am neutral on starbucks. i am disappointed on the margin profile.

i think their cells are under pressure, given what they've done to pricing. i don't think that the kind of pricing power that they have pushed through here. we will see. mcdonald's has the pricing power. starbucks has a lot were through, operationally. there are other names in the space, you look at the pressures they had on margin. it is a more expensive alternative. you have righted some wrongs. i think the trends are worth paying for. do not go anywhere, we will be back in two minutes. and millions of other talented pros, right now on upwork.com

welcome back tothree. we will take your tweets. elon musk has a stock up. a few things crushed are i? >> yes, what do you want to get across is, elon musk wanted to do differently to seller agreement as he could to entice them to just take his money. they negotiated a lot of things. no due diligence, you do put up a bunch of money, they were allowed to hire and fire people, as they wish. a lot of the points he is making to try to get out of the deal, they are refuting it at every turn. as we suspected, this would read well, his fight will have it is a response. right now, twitter seems to

have the upper hand. i think the stock should be up on this. i think it bodes well. >> we think about today's regular session of 4%, and the after hours of 1%, you said yesterday, the long calls that expire friday, and next friday. it is 3435. what do you do? >> they will probably be up tomorrow. i will sell some, primarily because this is what it is here for. we will see this. this will read well. both of these things are happening. twitter is the craziest thing ever. who knows what happens next after that? >> earnings will be terrible. what would you do? >> i would look at tesla. i would be with karen on twitter for sure. the next 10% to 50% will go higher. how does tesla perform? we talked about this about hours.

i think tesla could go lower from here and could sell off. stomach would you be inclined to short the stock? >> it is a little bit too cute by half. >> we are playing pretty cute and pretty well so far. >> [ laughter ] i will leave it at that. >> it has the january 6th committee hears details of an unhinged, six-hour meeting at the white house where they hatched the plot to keep trump in power. i'm shepard smith, this is the news on cnbc >> what it was going to be was an armed revolution. >> reporter: the one-time spokesman for the right-wing oath keepers >> this could have been the spark that started a new civil war. >> reporter: the testimony from the white house lawyer that advisers told president trump it's time to go. >> i believe he should concede the election at a point in time,