full point hike because expectations have rolled over as well we're back to 2.25 >> just to think about the idea the markets are pricing in real time is something kind of. >> useful. >> and wondrous to behold. >> we will leave it on that note dom, thanks for being here "closing bell" with sara eisen starts right now >> another red-hot inflation sending stocks on a wild ride with the dow trading nearly 500-point range. the most important hour of trading starts now take a look at where we stand in the market s&p positive a few u-turns we've seen it's consumer discretionary stocks leading the charge. bath and body works the winners there. the financials and communication

is hurting the banks here is a live look at the lagging sectors i just mentioned. i said the financials but some of the defensive groups like health care and real estate near the bottom of the pack today we've got the big banks starting to report earnings tomorrow. we'll have more on that for you straight ahead also coming up on today's show we'll talk about today's hotter than expected inflation print. wally adeyemo later on in the hour mike santoli here with the dashboard. mike, what are you watching as far as this kind of crazy reaction >> equity market now trying to play it off like, well, we saw this coming or perhaps there's nothing incompatible as rough as the cp ireport was with it being the peak month for inflation clearly indecisive on a couple levels

it does not reach the threshold we would reverse the trend on the other hand you have this, kind of managed to hold above those mid-june lows. we're trading at a level first seen intraday right in here, may 20th it's not as if we're unfamiliar kind of chopping around the growth areas of the market carrying things, longer term yields are going down. a lot of attention on the 2 versus 10 year, it is deeply negative take a look at the three-month 10 year, the one the fed points to as the more reliable precursor to a recession this is a 20-year look at this here is zero when have we gone below zero '06. in the summer of 2019, an asterisk there i'm not saying it foresaw the covid recession coming you have room to go but it's a function of just the months passing as well as the fed doing what we expect it now to do. a three-month yield will adjust

higher rapidly so, therefore, it's kind of on a collision course with zero if the fed does what we expect it to do. that in itself doesn't necessarily start the clock beating too loudly for a recession. we'll have to see. >> right now we have -- thank you, mike stick around to steve liesman on what that does mean for the fed and we're seeing expectations, steve, change here. >> reporter: yeah, pretty dramatically, sara there's a huge surge in the outlook for 100 basis point hike after the president bostic saying that everything is in play when asked if the fed could do more than 75 basis points this contrasts with his comments on monday where he said it was not his base case to do more than 75 but, of course, the hot cpi number changed his view and you take a look, we were at a 3% probability of 100% hike before the cpi. after the cpi, it went to 38%. after the beige book came out

and bostick spoke, it's the odds-on choice now 51%. put it all together, the odds-on bet of the market is for an astonishing 175 basis points of tightening over the next two months the move coincides with a stagflationary beige book. substantial price increases reported across all districts and five districts reporting increased risk of recession. just moments ago fed president barkan on the wire saying the june cpi report strengthens the case of the fed to be resolute on inflation and the fed should focus on inflation and not growth >> steve liesman, thank you. we'll continue with neal, mike santoli still with us. think they'll go 100 basis points >> anything is possible. maybe there will be a "wall street journal" article coming

out the weekend before >> the last time fed chairman powell said it's reasonable to expect 50 or 75 at the next meeting although the time before that he said we're only looking at 50. so i guess they're recalibrating as they get the inflation data >> to me the issue is they sort of find these data points and it's like ex-post justification for stuff they already decided they wanted to do. so powell looks at eci and that's why we're starting the tapering clock sooner and then it's a five to ten year inflation expectations i don't think they have a coherent strategy. i do think -- >> that's not fair they've told us that it's all about inflation right now. >> well, they haven't told us exactly how expeditiously they want to move up to neutral the most important part for investors is the fed basically has two options. two doors they can walk through, behind door number one is recession. and behind door number two is

let inflation expectations drift higher they've told us pretty clearly that they would prefer -- if you have to make a mistake, you go through door number one. and that, to me, is the most relevant thing for investors for example, i think the economy could be, frankly, on a glide path towards contraction the only thing left to go is the labor market we know initial claims are picking up modestly. i think some increase in the unemployment rate is inevitable. hiring intentions are declining. there's reason to think employment begins to contract outright at some point later this year. and, again, the fed is still in an aggressive posture against inflation. that's not exactly a good recipe for risk appetite. >> mike, is it already in the market, though >> i doubt all of that is fully in the market at this point.

if you had to kind of psycho analyze the market reaction today, participate of it is a let's get this over with attitude so there's still this clinging to this idea if we go 100 basis points in july that it represents a front loading of what ultimately will be done in total by the fed i'm not saying that's the case i'm saying this is the way you can kind of plot the story out and it makes it seem like we do it in july we kind of get free a little bit of the macro whipsaw because we're through the cpi number there's no meeting in august who know what is can happen after that september is far enough away for the purposes of equity traders to say let's focus on earnings >> the way i interpret it today we went from the inflation high rates sort of fear off that hotter cpi number to the recession fear, right? the dollar was stronger off the inflation number it's now weaker. so everything became about the recession, neil. what are we looking at

you said a contraction how deep now maybe that's the question we go from what kind of recession? >> i think the modest recession is likely. there's no significant macro imbalance in the economy outside of, like, household spending on durable goods. look, the ef uro/dollar futures market is pricing in -- mike can correct me if i'm wrong -- four basis point cuts at this point so, to me, i don't know if they do that. the fed probably won't be cutting that much in 2023 and there can be two reasons why that is. maybe i'm wrong about the growth outlook or what i think is more likely is that the fed has a more hawkish function than people believe >> inflation to stay high and sticky >> i think they need to be really sure about inflation coming off the boil before they give the market a pivot of any kind because they have been so far off the inflation story that

they have to compensate for that big miss, in a way, and that means, to me, holding on to a more hawkish posture for longer, possibly past the expiration date to me it's a reason to be cautious on the outlook for equities >> tech stocks are interesting today, mike, in light of all of this there's kind of a split. communication services are getting hit. some of the consumer discretionary names including tesla are higher amazon has turned around and is now higher these tend to get hit on the rate rise concerns >> well, yeah. what rate are we going to talk about? if they're long duration, if we want to say they trade off of bond yields, which yield matters, i try to say that's a much looser connection than is popularly kind of put out there that it's just about the rate story. it's also about they're not really as cyclical as the rest of the market. if, all of a sudden, technology defensive qualities are matering more, that's part of the story, but they're just down the most

they let us into this thing and we'll see if that's where the money flows in today we have these microsoft/netflix headlines. >> and there's also this idea we've seen the worst of it today's number we've said that before and been fooled if you look at some of these commodity prices they really have rolled over from oil to copper to wheat prices >> sure. the market has admittedly priced in a lot of down side. we haven't actually seen the weakness in the real economy yet. the labor markets have been holding up you have to kind of really peel back the onion to see weakness in the jobs market i think that's part of the challenge, the economy isn't slowing as much as people just want to get it over with that's a difficult situation because the growth numbers haven't actually cracked as far as the labor markets are concerned. >> not yet according to you neil dutta, thank you. mike santoli, i'll see you

later. tech stocks are well off their lows after sinking on the cpi report netflix getting a late session rally on news of a new partnership with microsoft we'll talk with analyst mike mahaney and his read on the stock in that sector you're watching "closing bell. the dow down 100 points. we were down 466 at the low so a nice recovery here you'll always remember buying your first car.

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check out today's "stealth mover. seaworld, key bank down grading from overweight citing the impact of economic concerns.

the stock is down 1.5% check out shares of netflix getting a late session pop after the company said it is partnering with microsoft for its new ad-supported service joining us now mark mahaney to talk netflix and other stocks. also reports that comcast and our parent company and alphabet were in the running. what do you think about the microsoft partnership? >> i was surprised i wouldn't have expected, and i think most people are, that they would have picked microsoft as their global advertising partner. probably fair to say it pales in comparison to google they must have gotten great terms. that's my guess. everybody wanted to partner with netflix. i think netflix is going to be successful rolling out an offering but i don't think it will be material to the story and, therefore, not an investable part of the story for another year or two. i think netflix as a 2024 long not now and not next year.

>> so netflix in a statement says it's very early days, to your point, but our long term goal is clear, a premium better than linear tv brand experience for advertisers. so what does that look like even in the long run for netflix in terms of revenue >> sara, i think this is great i'm a huge fan of netflix's management team. they've been phenomenally visionary. i think they missed this one i think they should have entered into the advertising market maybe a year or two ago but that's okay. they have a large platform of 220 million users and you bring in a lower priced plan that's ad supported, there are so many wins in here for netflix if they execute well, and this will take time, but so many wins you will reduce churn, bring in more subscribers that are price sensitive and we've seen price sensitive in our survey that is we've done on netflix over the years and in international markets and you're going to help them grow in parts of the world

where offerings, advertising video on demand, avod, asia-pacific has been a challenge for netflix. i see a lot of wins here there's plenty of evidence this he cthey can generate a lot of wins it will take some time my guess is it will work out for netflix. i don't think you can invest in it yet >> the stock is down 70% so visionary management is great until something like this happens where they've seen their first subscriber loss and the markets have totally turned. of all of your tech picks, and i know you've liked amazon, spotify, a lot of these companies, which do you think has a ridiculous valuation where you would buy? >> if i was going to pick one right now to buy, it would be amazon it's not just because of prime day. i think that helps this is a less worse call. you have your commentators earlier we're looking to see some cost inflation come down, and i'm talking about fuel

costs, shipping costs. as those come down, that was the big whammy against amazon. there's a less worse thesis that will play out. you're moving beyond the tough covid comps so a revenue acceleration story as they start going after all the overstaffing they've had. better capacity utilization so margin recovery, the stock is 30% to 40% below its average forward multiple to me this is classic dhq, dislocated high quality company. you buy one stock and be willing to weather the near-term risk, to me it's amazon, the most successfully diversified consumer tech company out there. >> okay, but you've said that before and it's now trading at post-covid low something is not clicking. worried about the economy, i.t. spend, retail. is amazon recession proof? >> it's not. it's not recession proof

we just lowered -- broadly you need one or two rounds of estimates cut. we did our best shot at cutting estimates aggressively and you need real signs of inflation moderation or interest rate expectations peaking we're not there yet. when you get that and, sara, it's three months out, six months out, timing is almost impossible i have a high-quality asset. when all of this is said and done it will be the leading global online retailer, the leading cloud computing company, one of the largest advertising assets in the world and new growth initiatives out there and i'm interested in this shipping elasticity concept i'm sticking with amazon this is the opportunity when the companies are most dislocated, you make money i think that's amazon. >> all right mark, thank you. we'll have you back soon want to talk more tech earnings. mark mahaney let's check in on the markets down 74 points on the dow. again with the s&p 500 we're

positive and thanks to consumer discretionary energy staples, utility and now technology is higher industrials and financials bringing up the rear in the market the nasdaq comp is up a third of a percent. still ahead deputy treasury secretary wally adeyemo and the administration's response to today's hotter inflation read. plus, why the ceo of chevron ou f me inflation could be arndor longer than you may think. we'll be right back. you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.

s&p goes negative as we continue this up-and-down day on wall street. the list of the top states for business is out. north carolina taking the crown this year and in today's big picture we are looking at the surprising financial strength that states are seeing across the board. scott, how does it look? >> reporter: it's really something, sara, and every state. north carolina's strongest category is its economy, and that includes really strong state finances

in fact, they just passed a bipartisan state budget that had room for a 4% teacher pay raise, adding to the state rainy day fun, a new billion dollar inflation reserve fund, band money to prepare more sites for development. >> this last budget that i signed, there's more investment to develop more because we're running out of them because we have so many businesses interested in coming to north carolina and expanding here. >> reporter: north carolina is not the only state rolling in dough. the state budget officers says 49 states have beaten their revenue forecast for this fiscal year wyoming might as well but its forecasts were made before covid. state spending up 13% this year, the biggest jump in more than 40 years. covid relief money a big reason. more sales tax, some due to

inflation. this year's most improved state is oregon. $400 million from tax payments some of these really strong gains are temporary and will fall or crash back to earth. this is not just a day at the beach. there is a crew that work on this i would love to be able to thank every one of them. you can see all of the handy work and see where your state ranks, read how we come up with this at topstates.cnbc.com that's top states for 2022 >> it's a great effort, scott. thank you very much.

and good to hear the good news on the surplus as well scott cohn another hot inflation report up next the deputy treasury secretary of the u.s., wally adeyemo, on what else the white house can do to fight the soaring consumer prices.

some breaking news out of washington let's get to kayla tausche the biden administration has ruled out for now waiving the jones act to allow more ships to transport refined products up the east coast according to my sources. it comes as the administration weighs policy actions to lower gas prices and increase domestic supply executives requested that waiver last month during a meeting at the department of energy, but according to attendees when pressed by the white house they acknowledged the change would only shave off at most 8 cents per gallon in gas prices at the pump and may not result in rerouting of shipments from central and south america. for that reason the white house remains open to possibly curbing exports of refined products according to two people familiar with the matter especially if domestic supply becomes challenged going into the winter is a time when this could poe tngsly happen. any urgency to take action has

decreased in recent weeks as the price of oil has fallen on recession fears. it is worth noting what domestic options are being studied as president biden meets with gulf leaders later this week. a spokesperson says it remains focused on bringing more refining capacity online especially ahead of hurricane season sara >> kayla tausche, thank you. we'll stick with that story because earlier today at cnbc's evolve global summit i had a chance to sit down with chevron ceo mike wirth and asked if he thinks we've seen a peak in oil prices here is what he said >> the tightness in supply hasn't gone away and so to the extent that we were to see china reopen fully and we're still seeing some covid restrictions there, see air travel return fully, there are up legs in demand that could pull hard on that supply again

of course there are risks around the situation in ukraine, the sanctions and how all of these things play out. it's good prices have moderated but i see the risksremaining skewed to the upside >> i asked him about the hotter than expected inflation report and how long he expects these kind of high consumer prices to last >> we work around the world and we see the pressures here in the u.s. certainly we talk earlier about the supply response to the strong demand we've seen coming out of the pandemic i think this is a structural element in the short to medium term that is very real across many different industries. monetary policy and fiscal policy may have contributed to some of the things we're seeing and i don't see them unwind

immediately. i think they do unwind over time we're anticipating a higher level than we've seen historically and it's something all companies should be, i'm sure all companies are rethinking their plans for the next few years >> more entrenched >> it's proven durable to this point and we need to prepare for it to have some additional run time >> additional run time mike wirth of chevron. joining us now for more on today's inflation is deputy treasury secretary wally adeyemo. secretary adeyemo, it's great to have you back on the show. they called today's number backward looking do you agree >> sara, it's great to be here with you it's for the previous month.

we've seen some of the indicators coming down as mike indicate d you've seen oil prices come down and commodities. we want them to come down further. this is a global phenomenon but we need solutions and what the fed needs to do. we will do everything we can on supply chains and calling on congress to take steps to reduce our deficits to address the challenge head on. >> i guess my question if it is backward looking, as you say, last month's data and oil prices have come down since then, other commodities have come down since then should the fed really pay too close attention to the support should it go even stronger on hiking rates as the market is now expecting them to do and potentially crush our economy into recession if we're starting to see evidence that inflation

is buying? >> i'm not going to talk about what the fed should do but what the president has said prices remain too high in the united states of america. that's why we have to do everything we can to bring them down it's not an american phenomenon, it's a global phenomenon we have to take steps to deal with our economy as well that's why secretary yellen is in asia which would reduce the amount of money they make from it the president is calling on congress to reduce our deficit and helps to bring down pressure on the economy and on high prices >> how does that price cap really work? second yellen is trying to sell that overseas to try to hurt

russia don't they have to be onboard with that as buyers of russian oil? >> the basic thing china and india need to be onboard with paying as little as possible for russia energy. that's what we're seeing happen. russian energy or euros is sold at a massive discount for those buying them. secretary yellen is advocating making sure russia is not reducing the amount of revenue they make while allowing the russian oil to flow. we think countries that buy the oil should be interested because it reduces the cost of energy for each one of them >> what ultimately does the white house hope to accomplish here i know you've been working on sanctions packages they've been extreme and the ruble has come back, the russian economy, it's obviously taken a huge hit we really haven't seen a let-up in this war.

>> we want to reduce russia's revenue and we want to reduce the revenue so they have less money to prop up their economy and to also pay for their war machine. the next step is the price gap we know russia earns the vast majority of revenues from selling oil around the world we want to allow that oil to flow and see oil prices come down so consumers pay less but we want to reduce the amount of revenue from selling the oil to make sure they have less money to prop up their economy they will have to make stark choices if they want to continue the war in ukraine. >> mr. secretary, now that we have another hot read on inflation, we're set to get a negative print if you trust the atlanta fed gdp model on growth. negative growth and sky high inflation, how much are you talking and worried about

stagflation at the treasury? >> i'm not worried about it because i spend my time talking to ceos and small business owners demand remains strong. last month you saw that we closed the gap in terms of the number of jobs that were lost in the private sector from the covid crisis and now we've created more jobs since president biden has been in office the economy has continued to grow industrial production is still strong so underlying we see momentum in the american economy and that will carry us forward. i think it puts us in a stronger position than any economy around the world to deal with the high inflation that we face today you look at inflation prints in other parts of the world they are also high they don't start off from the place we start out from which is a place of strength. our goal is to make sure we keep playing upon that strength to make sure the economy continues to grow and continue to create good paying jobs >> so president biden tweeted

out just within the last hour or so, mr. secretary, the chart you sent us. i think we have it for you of the price of oil and retail gasoline prices. both of which are declining but there's a big gap there. he says in his tweet time for gas retailers to pass the cost declines they're feeling in the markets on to american families at the pump. it's something jeff bezos has gone after the president and i asked mike wirth about it. most are owned by small businesses, independent family run businesses they own about 5% of them. it doesn't work that way they do track the market so what is the president after here >> i think what the president is after is what we're all focused on, doing everything we can to bring down costs for the american people. that includes making sure the market responds the way it should when you see fundamental price changes, advocating for congress to pass things like prescription drug price reform in order to bring down the price

of prescription drugs, it includes releasing energy from the strategic petroleum reserve and what the american people should know, what business owners should know the president will continue to advocate bringing down costs to make sure we continue to have a strong, robust american economy going forward. >> wally adeyemo, thank you for joining me today in reaction to those numbers. deputy secretary take a look at twitter shares taking off today after filing a lawsuit against elon musk for ending his $44 billion takeover of the company, and accusing him of driving the stock lower. the details when we come back. ♪ ♪ well would you look at that? ♪ ♪ jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks it gets a little old. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon!

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we've gone negative now. even the nasdaq giving up a third of gains up next a rough day for the airlines and the legal drama atupk n twitter and elon mus hes twitter the top performer. we'll take you inside the market zone next. the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries.

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help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity we are now in the closing bell market zone senior market commentator mike santoli to break down the moments and steve kovac on twitter and phil lebeau covering the airlines stocks have bounced around today. we've seen dramatic swings

the nasdaq is the outperformer but it's given up its gains and we're heading south again now down 200, mike kind of a mixed reaction to the cpi report which did come in hotter >> absolutely. on the one hand there was nothing within the report that was going to give you much relief on the inflation data front consistent with the energy markets that maybe it was a peak and we might just be kind of front loading a lot of what the fed will do in reaction. i don't know that we want to draw out the interday action except to say the s&p went back to last week's lows. we have earnings season coming up and perhaps enough nervousness built in to the market here. bond market volume tilts way too high for sustainable advance in equities >> we have seen increasing odds

throughout the session of a 100 basis point hike from the federal reserve and certainly higher odds that we'll see more tightening higher two year, lots of inversion. jpmorgan and chase kicking off earnings those results could be a catalyst for the market's next move what do you expect >> that's right. the street is expecting muted numbers. lower earnings per share relative to a year ago lower on the top line as well. going to be the qualitative part, what's the color, what's the tone the executives will set with regard to a recession right now things are challenging for the banks. you could see a double whammy if you see a recession and

declining interest rates in light of that recession in 2023 which is something the market is looking ahead to if there is that recession related concern from the bank ceos looking ahead to the following year. that would not be a good scenario for the banks >> not all banks are created equal, so which ones, the investment banks won't be as great because the capital markets have been so shut down which could see outperformance, for instance regionals? the traders should do better what do you think? >> most of the street says regionals versus the wall street banks will do better among the big six we tend to track closely here there's only one that's outperforming the s&p 500 and that's wells fargo which, of course, acts much more like a regional bank than the others given its exposure they're able to charge more in terms of interest on their loan

making as interest rates are rising that's what you saw. since the quarter ended it's been more volatile in the fixed income market. everything else pretty dramatically in some cases underperforming the s&p 500. >> leslie, thank you leslie picker. look at twitter. it's a big winner for a change after filing a lawsuit against elon musk for terminating his $44 billion take yoover of the company, the lawsuit contends musk refuses to honor his obligation to twitter and stockholders because the deal he signs no longer serves his personal interests steve kovac joins us why is twitter accusing musk of driving its stock lower? >> that's another excuse for elon to get out of this deal that he doesn't want to do it's really interesting to compare and contrast that letter we got late friday from elon musk's side claiming with really

no evidence about the spam bot problem and the lawsuit they lay out point by point all of the evidence including elon musk's own tweets and nasty emojis he sent the ceo of an example of him trying to cause as much chaos as possible and paint a picture of this buffoon who don't take this whole deal seriously. there's some irony baked in, too. they spend so much effort and time in the lawsuit calling musk on sirius a hypocrite. they conclude he's the best to take over the company. i don't know how they square that >> either way the stock is up 8% steve, thank you i want to highlight the airline stocks they are under pressure after this morning delta beat q2 revenue estimates but did miss on higher fuel costs, the ceo

did speak to our own phil lebeau on squawk box. he vowed to fix the operational issues in the third quarter. >> we had a rough six weeks, no question about that. we've issued compensation and the appropriate level. we're going to get back. we're going to get back. you have to prove it >> got to prove it how confident should we travelers feel at this point >> well, they've kept their schedule for the third quarter at the same level as the second quarter. it's not as though they're adding more flights and that was at the heart of the issues not just with delta but with the other airlines as well they added so many flights they just got too ambitious in what they thought they could handle like the other airlines and as a result they've dialed it back. the proof is in the pudding. we'll see how they handle the rest of the summer and post

labor day because they expect strong demand to last beyond labor day. >> phil, thank you mike, you have oil prices are firmer and the airlines have rallied. what was the takeaway from delta? >> that's been the main driver the general idea that maybe the airlines could bring supply and demand back into balance, maybe they're going to be a little bit less whipsawed by all of the staff shortages, that's good news i still don't seep the group as really being kind of sustainable leadership at all. it was right at the center of what happened in the pandemic. the balance sheets are in general not in great shape because of the capital they had to raise they will be trading stocks based on whether it's energy prices or really the feelings about the consumer in the latter half of the year >> on the demand side it was pretty strong.

some of the stocks getting hit 4%, 5% let's turn back to the broader market we have victoria fernandez with us to go into the close. victoria, your takeaway on the cpi report, the inflation report, and whether it dictates a direction for stocks here in the next few weeks >> yes sara, i think obviously it confirms what most people are thinking they were going to see these hikes. it really comes down to what the expectations are now for that exact number obviously steve liesman was on earlier in the show talking about how we've seen the futures expectations really rise, that 7,500 basis point for july i'm not sure that there is, i guess, a concrete answer in regards to these because i think when you look at the september meeting, you have two months between the two meetings we don't have an august meeting, and i feel like you will have counter trend things come in in regards to disinflation. we've seen commodity prices start to come down you have a labor market that

continues to hold its own. service demand, you were talking about airlines i traveled this past weekend, airports were crazy. service demand is there. i think you're going to be able to see something in that two-month span the september meeting allows the fed to pull back a little bit if it so chooses. >> so are you buying are you adding to positions on that idea which can be interpreted as bullish if you think inflation will come the other way and they're going to change their tune. >> yeah, we think inflation will come down. is it going to get to the 2% target anytime soon? no what is the fed going to be comfortable with with 4%? well, if so then we probably will reach that later this year and we are buying a little bi- we're not buying full positions. we're nibbling in there. using some of those more defensive names like general dynamics you look at anthem for insurance and health care. and we also like a name like waste management i mean, trash is going to be there regardless of what's happening in the economy, and they have strong balance sheets. so that's what you have to look

for as earnings come in right now look for the companies with quality earnings and solid balance sheets those will hold you over through the volatility >> you also like american express which i point out because it's actually one of the brighter spots in today's financials trade which all the banks are under pressure on this inverted yield curve amex is higher and is still down 15% this year. aren't they vulnerable if we see a consumer slowdown, a recession? >> they are vulnerable but when you look at the consumer base for american express they tend to have a higher w er wealth cor base they focus on travel and on service demand and we see that's continuing to be strong. so i think when you compare it with other names in that broader financial sector there are some positives that they can continue to lean on through volatile markets even as we go into a little bit of a recession. from that financial sector american express is a good name that you can have in your portfolio. >> mike, i wanted to bring up

tesla today. it made some turns on cpi and is higher and helping the market. the nasdaq going positive again. is tesla trading on twitter news prospects, on deal prospects, or something else >> i think there was an initiation today of the stock with some favorable fundamental views on it. that might have been one catalyst i think it would be a net beneficiary psychologically if, in fact, elon musk were not going to be buying twitter it's not, to me, trading mostly day-to-day on all of that stuff. there's been some revival in the large secular growth stocks and i think that got a boost >> helping the nasdaq, helping the consumer discretionary thank you. we'll leave it there two minutes to go in the trading session. the dow down 155 in the middle of the wide range. what are you seeing in the internals? >> kind of mixed on the inside not much of a washout day even at the lows and you have slightly more advancing than declining volume did want to take a look at the dynamic between the gasoline

refiner, a very gasoline sensitive consumer name. you see they've come right back together that's a six-month chart you see gasoline margins coming down and relief on the low end that dynamic is well in play the volatility index muted, 26 it's still uneasy but not panicky as we watch again that bond market volatility and the wide swinging expectation for what the fed might do. >> and we watched the treasury yields come down the dollar comes down alleviating two pressure points. as we head into the close here take a look at the dow jones industrial average down 179 right now as far as what's working and what's holding up better you do have some of the defensive groups working better today but not all of them actually you have consumer discretionary and staples as the best in the s&p. there you go it's a mixed picture there everybody else is lower. energy just turned negative. it had been positive today the nasdaq outperforming all day

long today perhaps in the fact we are seeing treasury yields come down, more recessionary fears. you see that with the inverted yield curve. the nasdaq will close down in the red, the fourth day we're lower in the dow and s&p going out with a decline of 0.4% that's going to do it for me have a great evening now to "overtime" with scott sara, thanks very much welcome, everybody, to "overtime. i'm scott wapner you heard the bells. we're getting started at the new york stock exchange. in just a little bit live to ritholtz wealth management josh brown on what investors should do now after another blistering inflation report and when earnings kick off in literally a matter of hours. we begin with our talk of the tape is the unthinkable really possible could the fed actually hike interest rates by 100 basis points at their next meeting in just a couple of weeks the market is now betting on it