it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top five at 5:00 investors waking up to recession warning signs after the white hot inflation read yesterday futures right now showing negativity growing expectations for a major 100 basis point or full percentage point rate hike at the fmoc meeting this month. that's coming up ahead. crypto winter takes another victim this time lender celsius filing

for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. netflix chooses a new partner for its upcoming ad streaming service. later on, president biden kicking off his middle east tour to israel before his face-to-face in saudi arabia tomorrow a live report coming up. it is thursday, july 14th, 2022 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan today of let's kickoff the hour with the futures pointing lower at the open dow lower 325. s&p down 46 at opening bell. nasdaq implied lower 25 points a lot of negativity right now if these futures move into cash

equities trading this is after the dow and s&p yesterday extended the losing streaks to four straight sections the major averages down this week with the nasdaq leading that down side with the more than 3% loss since monday. all of this after the consumer prices, cpi, yesterday, showing the biggest jump since 1981 and growing odds the fed implements a 100 basis point or 1 percentage point rate hike after the two-day policy meeting later this month in the pbond market, watch the spread with the 10-year treasury and the 2-year treasury. that difference is now at the widest since the year 2000 often a major early indicator for a recession. the difference is the 10-year treasury is 2.97%. 2-year treasury at 3.2%.

that inversion is something to watch. we are watching oil prices closely. with u.s. benchmark west texas below $100 a barrel. futures for wti crude is $93.51. ice brent crude at $97.22. and nat gas is 6.64 is the last trade. in cryptocurrency, we have stability on bitcoin and ethereum upward price moves for bitcoin $19,977. it is below the $20,000 mark it was above that earlier. ethereum prices up to $1,084.52. many coins and tokens are early on the session let's get to julianna tatelbaum with the latest in london. good morning, julianna

dom, great to see you. european equities are extending losses to the session today. it is red across the board we are seeing resilience in the german market. we see under performance recently the cac 40 in france down 1% ftse 100 down .80% the european commission cut growth forecast for this year and next still looking optimistic 1.4% growth next year. 2.6% growth this year. it is really italy that is focus on the trade the market down more than 2% italian banks are selling off and bond yields are rising all of this as the political situation becomes more tenuous we are seeing the ruling coalition risk collapse. we are seeing a big market reaction from the sector perspective, you

got the bottom of the board with real estate down 2%. we are seeing resilience in media. come, a check at yields in europe, dom. specifically italian bond yields trading up nearly 3.5% a lot of focus in italy and all of this in the context of the european central banks the risk of bonds rising is already there and it is now more prominent. back to you. >> so many variables thank you, julianna. let's bring in contessa brewer with more. thank you, dom warren buffett buying up for occidental stock he is paying $250 million over

the past three days. latest purchase is bringing the total investment to 179 million shares or 19% stake in the company. panasonic is selecting texas for the multibillion dollar mega factory. when it is complete, the plant would produce electric vehicle batteries. the choice to build is coming five months after state lawmakers rushed to approve a tax package of $1 billion to attract the company and promise of thousands of jobs that come with it. united airlines and pilots head back to the negotiations table for a new round of talks the airline pilots association said yesterday the agreement they made a deal to fell short of some pilots expectations. tentative agreement included a

14% pay raise within 18 months was revealed june 24th voting by rank and file pilots was set to close friday. the real question here, dom, and you see united airlines down 1% in extended trading. what does this do for other airlines to set the standard for their negotiations >> you see it is not having a good time. we will watch if this has another impact on the lagging airline trade. contessa, thank you. at this hour, president biden with a bilateral meeting with israeli prime minister as part of the first trip to the middle east. biden heads to saudi arabia tomorrow for more negotiations as he looks to reset reelalatio amid the oil crisis. we have raf sanchez joining from

us jerusalem raf, good morning or good afternoon. how many times can we talk about the middle east portion of president biden's agenda is so key not just israel, but iran and saudi arabia as well >> reporter: it is absolutely key. president biden coming to the region with oil prices high and americans paying very high prices at the pump european energy supplies threatened by russia with the war in ukraine the president is here hoping that the saudis and other opec nations will pump more oil not totally clear, dom, if that will directly lead to lower gas prices at the pump for american drivers. it is one of the cornerstones of the trip he is meeting with the israeli prime minister that is focused on one of the issues which is iran which is top of the israeli agenda.

president biden yesterday took a look at a very advanced israeli missile system to shoot down incoming rockets and missiles. he told israeli media he is prepared to use force to stop iran from getting a nuclear weapon there are profound disagreements with the administration and the way forward with iran. the president would like to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement which was negotiated under obama before trump took the united states out of it. one of the big sticking pointsi revolutionary yguard on the

terrorist list it is not clear if the talks are going anywhere the israeli say the 2015 nuclear agreement is weak and paves the way for a nuclear bomb we will see if saudi arabia will take steps to the northmalizatin while president biden is here. >> raf, saudi arabia is a key focus not just here in america, but many oil consuming countries in the world what exactly can we expect out of the meeting that we expect president biden to have with crown prince muhammad bin salman we know they will not have a press conference after that. what is the expectation that president biden can get out of the meeting? >> reporter: for starters, this is not a meeting that president biden wanted to have he spent the last two years

freezing crown prince muhammad bin salman to avoid contact with h him. the cia says the crown prince ordered the murder of jamal khashoggi. the president, as we were able, to say they will request to produce more oil there is a war in yemen and a cease-fire is there now. the u.s. is playing a role in the cease-fire the president wants to get to some long-term peace deal. from the saudi perspective, their main goal is the meeting mbs has been toxic on the world stage for the last couple years following khashoggi's murder he sees the meeting with the president of the united states is a ticket out of the cold. he sees it as a step toward

rehabilitating his image on the world stage. dom. >> raf sanchez, thank you. back to the markets with stock futures pointing to sharper losses at opening bell a difference with the 10-year treasury and 2-year treasury the 2/10 year spread it is inverted and now the widest level in 22 years could it be a recession signal for investors? joining me now is brian levitt at invesco brian, this is a huge point for many traders and investors right now. whether or not the yield curve, 2/10, 5/30, whether it is as reliable recession indicator as years past given the central bank intervention over the last decade plus. >> i think we ignored the bond market

the bond market tends to get it right most often what is happening here is it is a bond market that is pricing in a lot of policy tightening policy tightening with a slowdown in the economy. that's a troublesome position to be in. i would take it seriously. you make the point that the three-month 10-year treasury has not inverted we listen to the federal reserve. they are likely to invert that within months. it is not a timing tool, but it certainly is a harbinger of economic woes. >> if it is a harbinger of future economic owoes, is it far to say that when the nasdaq pulls back from record highs 35% that it is expecting the recession and the bounce we have been seeing is what we see on the other end of the possible recession? >> we're probably not there yet. let's look at it from the s&p

500. if you look at the s&p 500 during the last ten recessions, it is negative 31.9% the s&p peak to trough is down 24.4%. we are getting there most of the move in the s&p 500 has been a valuation adjustment as interest rates have moved higher now we need to assess what a slowdown for economy mention for earnings for investors, it is probably too late to get bearish. trying to time these things is going to be hard to get to a market bottom, you need to adjust for earnings and see inflation pressure come down e federar clarity on the a inflationary pressures come down we made a huge point as many

experts, pundits over the last several weeks and months, that the ppi is backward looking. is the forward looking stuff better or worse? >> better. the inflation is going to moderate we see commodity costs come down if you look at the one-year inflation break between the treasury and protected security, you look at it in may. the bond market expectation was over 6%. yesterday, it was below 4% that is a huge move. the 10-year treasury is within the fed comfort zone inflation will moderate, dom the problem is it is not happening fast enough. you have a fed reserve that's going to be basically driving

looking through the rear-view mirror and raising interest rates into the slowdown. that is how cycles end is there a path to a soft landing? there is it is always narrow. yesterday's cpi report makes it more narrow. >> brian, do you expect that the fed will raise interest rates by a full percentage point at its july meeting >> it seems likely for investors, you talked about what is priced in. the market gets ahead of these things the market expects the fed to get the funds rate to 3.5% by the end of the year. there is your inverted yield curve between short rates and long rates interestingly enough, the bond market is starting to price in the fed that will have to ease in 2023. you know, for investors, it is policy tightening and slowdown as we talked about it, we he

pr priced in a good amount. there may be more challenging days ahead >> brian levitt, thank you when we come back on the show, cryptocurrency winter takes another move as those rush for financial lifelines. big banks kicking off earnings season. we will see if rising rates are helping bottom lines or helping share prices. later on, the historic move in the new york city rental market the staggering statu you have to see to believe we have a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break. bloo

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." developing story within the crypto industry as firms across the business rush for financial lifelines in the wake of the recent crypto winter the latest embattled lending giant celsius starting the process of chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding this comes a month after it froze customer accounts blaming extreme market conditions. cnbc.com technology reporter mackenzie sigalos is joining us with more. mac, how more of a chilling effect for the crypto winter >> that's a huge concern

celsius filing for bankruptcy wasn't a surprise once a platform suspend withdrawals and freezing crypto cash, it ty typically was all over celsius was once one of the largest players in crypto lending. $8 billion in loans to clients and $12 billion in assets to market a lot of mom and pops were wrapped up celsius at 1.7 million customers as of last month the reason the platform captured so many users is because of the unbelievable returns interest bearing accounts were attractive yields as high as 17%. refere returns like that are not real we know one lawsuit where celsius is accused of functioning like a ponzi scheme.

dom. >> mackenzie, we are seeing 3ac that is one you hear a crypto hedge fund that used to be a major one it is filing for bankruptcy. that has had a knock on for crypto users 3ac. that has been the bigger influence on confidence in crypto >> it seems all roads lead back to three arrows capital. this was supposed to be the adult in the room, dom the fund around for a decade and former credit suisse traders and $10 billion in assets under management now they are in bankruptcy court. the funds relied heavily on leverage and broke as crypto prices plunged and leaving them unable to repay lenders. it is the perfect example of the dangers of the crypto contagion

effect things are not looking good from here the fund voluntarily filed for bankruptcy, lawyers representing the court assigned liquid ators say the fund hasn't been to cooperate with the liquidation process in any meaningful manner that means there is no cash to pay back lenders >> fascinating mackenzie sigalos, thank you a rough ride for stocks in 2022 could the next qrtuaer help them turn a positive corner find out when "worldwide exchange" returns after this

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." right now the markets are showing signs of weakness as traders and investors across wall street and global markets try to ascertain if there is a bigger threat right now from inflation or perhaps the threat of recession in the days, weeks and months down the line if you look at the s&p 500 chart, you see we drifted now toward the lows of the session right now. the s&p 500 futures down 1.25% implying a lower open. but we have been seeing some buying interest during the

course of the regular trading session on the weaker days after the hot inflation data the hot inflation print, whether or not, it peaked or not remains to be seen a lot of people not making the call to the top. some are indicating inflation has given way to a more rece recessionary slowdown narrative. gold prices historically for hundreds of years, is a hedge against flinflation. since march, we see a pull back 16% from the highs here. gold has lost luster in terms of inflation hedge. maybe inflation has been viewed to peak. and look at real estate. often a hedge against inflation. a real asset

the vanguard real estate ticker has seen a market decline due to no small part of rising interest rates increasing the cost of financing and real estate. inflation has peaked by that indication and another one to watch is agriculture commodities. we see it in grocery stores. food inflation what happens with grains and some of the other agriculture commodities? the invesco etf dba is also in a fairly decent medium turn down turn since may whether or not commodities hard or soft indicates inflation has peaked remains to be seen. still ahead, the efforts from president biden to push $52 billion of micro chip funding. can it pass the finish line? we have ylan mui with a report from the capitol straight ahead.

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investors facing new recession warning signs after yesterday's white hot read on inflation. what the fed is now considering more than ever ahead of the policy meeting later this month. shares of big banks bruised and battered in 2022, but earnings on deck from the biggest names in the industry looking to turn the corner today. plus, growing momentum on

capitol hill around the plan to send billions of dollars to the u.s. computer chip industry. how the white house plans to push it over the finish line it's thursday, july 14th, 2022 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to the show "domi i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan let's kickoff this half hour with the stock futures pointing to a lower dow implied lower 300 points s&p is lower as well and nasdaq as well broad based declines for all ind indices. this is after the 41-year high ofd hawk100

basis point rate hike. cleveland fed president mester saying anything less than a 75 basis point hike would be insufficient in the bond market, the 2-year treasury and 10-year treasury, the widest level in years. it is an early indication of recession. the 10-year treasury is 2.96%. the 2-year treasury is 3.2%. widespread inn investigation we inversion. we'll keep an eye on that. let's get to the top stories with contessa brewer >> dom, netflix is selecting microsoft for the planned ad supported subscription service netflix said it would introduce a new lower priced service to attract more subscribers

this is as netflix is bouncing back from the subscriber loss in more than a decade. tesla ai leader andrej karpathy is no longer working for the company. this follows the closure of thes office in california where data teams were helping to improve the company's driver assistance technology since june 2021, tesla vehicles have accounted for 70% of reported crashes with driver 1. the fda authorizing novavax two-dose covid rack isvaccine f adults this is the first shot to receive emergency approval since the pandemic began

shares down 2% in early morning trading. dom. >> contessa, thank you. to earnings. banks kickoff. jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley stepping up first. stocks have been under pressure following back-to-back quarters of inflation results it could weigh on consumer spending and the banks' bottom lines. let's go to ken leon for the latest ken, this bank trade is a comeback trade for months and quarters and years now what will it take to get the trade going? >> good morning, dom you are right. the narrative has changed. we're at an inflection point where perhaps the economy is putting pressure on the banks. the question is for investors is where the bull is going over the next 6 to 12 months. not where we are we are going to shed light with jpmorgan chase and morgan

stanley today on loan activity and capital markets. all of a sudden, instead of releasing reserves, banks are building up for credit losses potentially next year. >> okay. if that's the case, let's look at the big results coming out from jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley. you could argue beoth are bellwether in the business side of things. what are you looking for out of jpmorgan chase's rules and morgan stanley that give you confidence rather than fear? >> they will say raising their hands and right now loan activity is good for the consumer and commercial and credit quality is still good the question is the storm over the horizon related to the pressure of inflation. higher rates and potentially

rising balances that some can't pay off their credit cards anymore. we are seeing that in the economic data. i think they will skirt the issue of the capital markets and hope for a better day in the second half of this year capital markets, particularly investment banking, was down 30% on investment banking fees >> ken, to put a cap on this, if you take a look at the overall picture for these financials, and the earnings season coming up, you look at the research and do a lot at cfra, which part of the banking and financial services complex has the most promise given the back drop you just mentioned >> we still think it is related to lending if volume can hold up with raising rates, that will lead to income i think the secret to the story

is the bank stocks are cheap trading at all-time lows on price tangible book value. i mentioned building up reserves if we have a soft landing or a shallow recession, all of a sudden, banks will reverse reserves and boost earnings. that is for a different time in the story. right now, it is a question of what's ahead for the second half of the year. >> ken, before we let you go, when you look at the research and all of the companies you cover, including the banks, is the base case that you have for a recession in the coming months or not >> we are looking for significantly slower growth and possibly recession and estimates are coming down. the market is already reflected that in stock prices if you see even any of modest gain from the bearish view, with 100 basis point rise from the fed in the next case, these

stocks will hold up and possibly go higher. we are positive on the bank stocks with the buy on morgan stanley. we have a hold on jpmorgan chase. >> ken leon, thank you the biden administration is ramping up pressure on congress to pass $52 billion of funding for the semiconductor business as republicans claim the measure is quote/unquote stuck new movement overnight to push it to the finish line is out and ylan mui is joining us with those stories and headlines. good morning, ylan >> reporter: good morning, dom growing momentum on capitol hill over a plan to separate billions of dollars for the chip industry from a bigger package of bills focused on american innovation and competition. this could unlock the $52 billion in tax incentives and grants to shore up manufacturing here in the u.s. and allow congress to pass it all bythe

end of the month this does have bipartisan support, but it has gotten stuck as republicans and democrats clash over the broader legislation and other unrelated spending bills last night, the senate got a classified briefing from top br biden administration on the national security risk of the chip shortage. after it was over, they said there is an urgency to act >> if we don't act now, a delay of months could turn into a delay for years because when we have this additional government assistance, it only covers 10% or 20% of the costs. >> reporter: they said it is not just china, but japan, germany and south korea. they are already trying to lure chip makers with government programs intel and lockheed have been lobbying hard for the u.s. to step up. top senate republican mitch mcconnell is willing to support

the snar narrow approach. the white house would get behind it as well, but now the question is could this plan pass the house. that chamber will get its own briefing this afternoon. dom, we will see if any changes happen on capitol hill back to you. >> ylan, you talk about the narrow view that could get republicans on board with the approach a more surgical approach to this what exactly would they be leaving by the wayside if they take that tailored approach? >> reporter: dom, a lot. one of the big sticking points of the negotiations over the past year have been how the house and senate handle the trade provision notis in the bi. exclusions on the tariffs on chinese goods and the process of the u.s. review and the way u.s. companies invest in other countries, particularly in china

and russia there is a lot that lawmakers have been grappling with over the last few months. now they are thinking about maybe they should table that debate so they can get this money out to the chip industry because that has really been the engine of the bill all along >> ylan mui in washington, d.c thank you very much. see you later on today. coming up on the show, president biden on the first leg of the first trip to the middle east as president. what is at stake in israel and what investors should expect when he arrives in saudi arabia tomorrow. as we head to break, some top trending stories the average monthly rent for a manhattan apartment is surpassed $5,000 5,000 for the first time ever with brokers saying demand and prices are likely going higher in the fall. accordingly to the report from miller and sullivan. the average price in june was $5,058

up 29% year over year. so much for the pandemic wiping out new york city. richard branson has a new passion. the british billionaire and galactic founder is backing lightyear as part of the funding round. lightyear will reveal the app in germany, france and italy this year. and hyundai revealing the latest electric vehicle. ioniq 6 ev the company says it expects to begin production in the third quarter with the u.s. sales kicking off in the first quarter next year. hyundai is the second largest seller of evs in america trailing only, yes, tesla. we're back after this.

welcome back president biden is continuing his middle east trip with meeting with the israeli prime minister earlier this hour and we expect more comments from both men at any moment that's a live shot from jerusalem. we will monitor that event and bring you the latest and headlines as they warrant. the biggest attention for investors will likely be biden's face-to-face meeting with crown prince muhammad bin salman joining me now is jimmy

pethokoukis. jimmy, there has been a lot made of the notion that president biden has in the past not been so friendly with saudi arabia with regard to a lot of things, but now going over for a face-to-face discussion to ask them to pump more oil. is that how the market is seeing this particular meeting? >> yeah, i think the market is seeing this as a very sort of real politic approach to u.s. foreign relations. very tough saudi arabia. turning it into a pariah state high oil prices and war in ukraine and they would love for saudi arabia to pump more oil. now, as we have seen the biggest factor with oil prices is what will happen with the global

economy. i think expectations should be muted as far as what the president would get. i'm not sure how much spare capacity and sustained capacity saudi arabia has you know, if the president can come up with something, that's a win. for any president with low approval ratings, getting out of the country and visiting other countries, that is presidenting 101. >> jimmy, if you look at the story played out with fossil fuels and clean energy, there is a push by many parts of the democratic party to get more renewable energy perhaps that is the future is this now a stark reminder that fossil fuels may be with us for some time? do you think this changes the way this administration will view the energy sector overall and importance to the u.s. economy and what can be considered a bridge year or bridge number of years between now and clean energy >> you know, i think maybe

people who take that position, a more realistic view of solar and wind can do versus fossil fuels for and what we might need nuclear energy or geothermal energy for this helps that case the forces within the democratic party who are so committed to the idea that we need to accelerate the energy transition are super strong i think those forces will continue to have the upper hand. yet, reality continues to intercede. that reality is when we have high oil prices and people begin to notice energy more and they begin to notice we don't have cheap energy right now >> so many polls and surveys the last several months here indicating that gasoline prices are the foremost concern for americans about the economy.

jimmy, i think the evidence points to what you are saying. t thank you very much. on deck for the show, futures extending losses we are off the worst levels of the session. our next guest says she is putting money to work. we'll have that story when we come back after this break

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a busy day at 8:30 a.m. eastern, weekly jobless claims and the june producer price index the second quarter results from jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley. you will hear comments from fed governor christopher waller. speaking at 11:00 a.m. investors have a lot to digest on their plate

maybe the fed going a full 100 basis point hike late they are mo later this month among that, let's bring in sylvia jablonski sylvia, i reeled off a laundry list of issues on balance, is this market one where you can put money to work? >> dom, you listed what sounds like the perfect storm the good news is the market has readjusted to that and the market revalued. we had s&p down 20% at the lowest point and now around 20%. nasdaq with the 30% mark i think a lot of these stocks are now actually on sale and in a tradeable level. i can't call the bottom.

the way i look at this is what i see stocks on sale 20% or 30% off highs and a longer-term outlook and not using that cash to live on i can't call the bottom or top with inflation i see things that make me interested commodity prices budging 20% it is a backward looking number that has been priced in. oil and gas and rents and mortgages coming down a little bit. all-time terrible sentiment with michigan you have strong balance sheets and jobs that leads me to believe don't n recession. we could get a technical recession, but the stock market has done that work when you think about bull markets, 35% happens within the first two months i'm okay being early

i'm long term. i'm shaking this off for now as noise. i think there are great opportunities. >> here is what i point out. fresh news coming from bank of america's chief equity strategist who just put out a note to clients saying quote we lower our year-end target for the s&p 500 to 3,600 from 4,500. a 25% decline. 31% is the average decline amid recessions in our fair model value, we increased the risk primemium by 150 basis points fro from our s&p 500 floor, we could see 3,200 by end of year you have bank of america lowering this is something that plays out

more in sentiment. you have wall street analysts lowering across the board even for the stock market as a whole let alone earnings estimates given a recession narrative. >> it does i think all of it feeds in the capitulation and pull back in the markets. it sets investors up for longer term whether or not we stay at levels now or lose that 8% to 10% as she is suggesting in the s&p to hit the proper recession lefvels i think we know what is ahead of us we expect the earnings season to be poor. i know it is not all repriced. it is being able to weigh it out. once we get past earnings season and get lighter inflation reads. eventually it starts if you look at the 2/10 year

we are pricing potential rate cut in 2023. a lot of this is going to be behind us sooner than later. in terms of equity prices, most of the work has been done. if we look at the all-time lows that some are predicting, the market has done the work already. it is reasonable to scoop up equities and dollar cost average along the way. >> sylvia, thank you very much that does it for us here on "worldwide exchange. futures are lower. that does it for us here on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" picking up the market coverage coming up next because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both.

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reaction was immediate yesterday. we're talking about the fallout from the hotter than expected june cpi data and what the markets are expecting from the fed july meeting competition in electric vehicles heating up. tesla is losing market share details ahead. and earnings season is under way. even more so with the banks. we hear from jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley before the opening bell it is thursday, july 14th, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin and joe kernen becky will be with us later this week u.s. equities at this hour. >> one day