reaction was immediate yesterday. we're talking about the fallout from the hotter than expected june cpi data and what the markets are expecting from the fed july meeting competition in electric vehicles heating up. tesla is losing market share details ahead. and earnings season is under way. even more so with the banks. we hear from jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley before the opening bell it is thursday, july 14th, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin and joe kernen becky will be with us later this week u.s. equities at this hour. >> one day left.

>> we -- >> she comes in for the second half >> we have red on the screen dow is off 266 points. we have three and a half hours to go. let's show you treasury yields we have watched for the question of inversion we're still inverted 10-year treasury is 2.967% the to2-year treasury at $3.12. >> steeper let's get to liesman for the lies-maniacs price in a fed rate hike of 100 basis points we should call it one point, steve? steve liesman joins us now with more hey, steve >> one percentage point is the correct way to say it. i know you are a scientist at

heart. >> might as well say that. >> right i'll say a full 100 basis point rate hike from the fed now priced in for the july meeting another 75 for september the markets think the central bank will exaccelerate and stri a monetary policy within two months here is the probability of the 100 basis points at next meeting. it started at under 3% and we remarked it jumped after the cpi and the chance of 75 is now 63% for september. the march to the higher fed is the cpi inflation report which was better than expected and follow ed by a beige book of price increases among all bank districts.

three fed speakers did not endorse the full percentage point move the atlanta fed bostic said everything is in play. now the rise of 3.7% is re restricted territory these probabilities are subject to enormous volatility as the market swings. fears of recession and inflation and back and forth this volatility is reflective of fed policy jay powell or anyone else wants to rein in market expectexpecta they he have not weighed in yet. joe, we started the week talking about backing off rate hikes >> we did. i just googled monoposy. >> it's a nice word.

>> it is we started a lot of companies and that situation started on january 21st, 2020 is that when the companies started doing these things it didn't seem like it was happening for the last 20 years. not as much. >> no, not in january. it's a process, joe. >> is it getting worse does that explain any of this? you know what? i didn't want to go there. i like the word. i like words like monoposy is there any way of a capitalist collusion and trying to gouge ppi numbers for their own gains? is that here or is this organic? >> joe, you are so good at teasing. >> tweaking? >> i made a comment that you go to the extremes. i made a comment the entire u.s.

economy is not perfectly competitive. there are places where it is less competitive than it ought to be. that is one factor in price increases that are out there overall, joe, all of the other things we talked about, i think, are the majority i'm saying it is not perfectly competitive. >> if you want to make a perfect crystal, you need to do it in space. that slightest particle, whether government interferes or what you are talking about interferes, it can screw up the entire thing it is not perfect. it will never been perfect as your buddy -- was rick santoli the best man at your wedding? >> he could have been. >> your buddy said yesterday it's the best we got >> joe, as i said many times

over the last decades, nobody knows it better than i do. i spent six years in russia and understood about what was terrible about that system and what was great about our system. i just think, joe, it's not that it is good because it was good it is good because we make it good every day and address things like inequality in the system and dress monopolies in the system >> i don't know anyone else that lived in russia for six years. anyone we worked with. in this day and age to interpret what is happening in the world is valuable, steve, in addition to all of your fed stuff >> i wish it would help me understand what is going through putin's mind it is also relevant for what is happening with the crisis these days joe, you have taken a moderate view as i can tell, you blame the fiscal side on this thing, but

you see what is happening with ukraine. a good sexample is gas is $3.30 on february 24th and then went to $5. do the math as who is responsible for what there are really interesting and profound quandaries about how the fed ought to respond to something like that. there is no amount of rate hikes. full percentage point is not going to create a single drop of gasoline address the refining problem that didn't begin on january 20th, 2020 it was out there for a while joe, you get into things like we're into right now with the underlying problems. it is like -- it's a weird analogy. when i go and fish a lot and catch the fish and filet it and put lemon on the fish, that's

where i find all of the cuts on my hand. we find issues that are out there that we didn't notice. >> i'm just saying i think about heathrow the number of people trying to go through heathrow is no different than pre-pandemic. they can't come close to handling it. simple dynamics. you have that many people and can't accommodate, the people who can afford it, will pay more i always wanted to know where are the restaurants that use the uber model >> charge more to get a table. >> when willing to pay places in florida where i like to go and it is a two and a half hour wait. i sound like a total db here i can afford to pay $20 if

you -- which is these are 1% problems they look at me like you are such a -- i am that's bad why don't they do market oriented reservations at restaurants? would you do that if you could >> you do it some other way. >> you do it cheap >> you do the times i'm andrew ross sorkin. >> never. >> you walk in and say can i get a table near a waiter? >> near a waiter >> an old henny youngman joke. >> joe, wait, wait, wait because a lot of stuff written about pricing. a lot of cultural stuff. is that the image you want to present? i'll be back at 8:00 with the all america survey showing the inflation numbers impacting the

outlook or assessment of the job joe biden is doing it is not very positive. >> thank you, steve. have you every tried to tip the host or hostess? >> i use a different name. you got to go low key. that's how you do it we have crypto news. celsius now filed for bankruptcy protection a month after halting withdraws. they offered high yields to deposit or depositors and made high loans it isn't seeking court approval to allow customer withdrawals at this time. meaning accounts will stay frozen as the lender restructures in bankruptcy this is one of those things that really represents some of the

challenges that the crypto industry faces and why some have been worried about it. berkshire hathaway is betting on occidental again. warren buffett bought $250 million of stock berkshire bought 12 million sh shares last week they own preferred stock and is offering to buy more shares for $59.62 each. what is happening? checking on the table? >> i'm checking on my table. phone is blowing up. was that really you? coming up, competition in electric vehicles is heating up. data showing tesla is losing market share phil lebeau will have that story next. today is the kickoff to earnings season. we hear from jpmorgan chase and

morgan stanley they report in the next hour we have the numbers and reaction on wall street you are watching the one and only "squawk box" on cnbc. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist wealth. where meaningful relationships matter most. is a journey for the curious traveler, one that many have yet to discover. blooup to the history, the culture, the flavors, a serene river voyage on an elegant viking longship. learn more at viking.com

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through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. welcome back to "squawk box. demand for electric vehicles is

heating up and tesla is losing market share phil lebeau has more >> good morning, andrew. the tracking of vehicle sales for every automaker in the united states. we have the data for the first and second quarters. there wasn't a substance market loss for tesla in the first and second quarters. 71%. hyundai is doing well selling as well as ford by the way, these other automakers will start to see the numbers increase the bottom four will fluctuate as gm ramps up manufacturing for tesla, surging in large part because of the model 3 and model y popularity in terms of the states and where

evs are popular and i get this question all the time. no surprise here 34.9% of all evs sold in the u.s. are sold in california. not a surprise given the early adopter status and tesla based there and population that is more environmentally focused than the rest of the country florida and new york 50 more evs sold than new york texas at 6.5 tesla gained market share among evs in texas that's the impact of the gigafactory in austin. you will see this ramping up between now and 2025 we see it with the ford f-150 lightning. other automakers increasing manufacturing capacity in the next few years tesla's market share will erode to a certain extent. it will not lose the lead or

dominance because it is so far ahead. ev share has fallen in 29 states shares of that's keep in mind it does dominate in the two states that matter most. two of the four largest in terms of market share which is california and texas evs relative to california are a small number in terms of number of vehicles. you look at the ev manufacturers. rivian and lucid and ford because they are ramping up. they are flnot getting benefit f the growth we saw a year ago, andrew >> phil, i know this is a little bit of a curve ball. as we talk about tesla and i'm looking at the current share price. there are still a lot of people concerned of the twitter transaction and what that may mean for tesla shares and how much money and what damages could be paid. what is the latest chatter in

anxiety of the overhang of stock related to that or is it out of price? >> let me give you sense within the auto community i don't think they think there is a lot of overhang relative to tesla. there may be overhang relative to elon musk and personal wealth and how much he has invested in tesla and that may be tied up with twitter we neceknew that early on that was an early story there. in terms of impact on tesla with the manufacturing or bottom line, i don't see the overhang being there or it will last. i chuckle, andrew, we have a tendency to throw up the tesla stock when we talk about twitter. there is a correlation there i do not see the overhang there with a long-term impact regardless of how it shakes out. >> my understanding, phil, if,

in fact, the lenders who were supporting the transaction for twitter were to walk away and a judge still to require elon musk to complete the transaction, that's where the crunch would come >> look, you are correct that is a scenario where you got to go through this and through this you have to work your way there. first of all, i don't think it is a likely scenario i think it is a scenario that is out there. it is not getting a lot of attention nor concern from those who are watching tesla stock >> phil lebeau they may have concern with the market share piece we'll see. i appreciate it. >> they will dominate for the next couple years. coming up, netflix picked microsoft to help launch ad supported version of the platform that makes sense they couldn't have gotten better people

they would be competing with competitors. we'll talk about the impact on the media sector next. as we head to break, the euro trading near parity with the u.s. dollar. very near parity "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. netflix chosen microsoft for the ad streaming service after years of rejecting that model, you might recall they were never a fan of ads.

to place ads was a surprise to some and the industry executives because microsoft is not well known for its video ad capabilities as others other ad tech players like comcast peacock and youtube. there was speculation that comcast, our parent company, would have been that partner >> right capability to do that and make reid hastings and make it as non intrusive as possible. peacock does that. >> inconspicuous >> yeah. the most you see is 90 seconds a little thing 60 seconds >> in the beginning. they ramp it up? >> there was a period of time where the ad supported hulu.

they would run the ad in the beginning. >> there will be slight breaks they are never intrusive for me 60 seconds i don't care about. 3 or 4 minutes is what gets me >> i'm sure you saw this yesterday. a bunch of content companies licensed shows to netflix over the years. in those contracts, it is unclear if you can insert ads into the shows so, in some cases, it sounds like there may be some renegotiation to go back if they want to run that contact with ads next to it in that case, the benefit to netflix becomes questionable for certain programming. programming they bought. netflix original is not the case >> has microsoft gotten better brad smith on one board and somebody else. a good relationship between netflix and microsoft.

it looked like an old boys club. maybe microsoft got better google would be better you are competing with youtube >> and i don't know if netflix is already on azure in terms of the cloud service which is powering >> did you tell me to watch the case >> i told you. >> the drama of the other thing i actually saw how do they decide if he did it or not did they decide he did do it he did it. he did do it do they have it all coming down? >> you can't tell people what happened you don't want to ruin it. >> how do you dramatize something? >> it's good >> you didn't watch the other one? >> the documentary on netflix. >> which did you watch >> i have seen both. i have too much staircase

the drama, i thought, was better than the documentary >> on the fictional side >> we know how good "dope sick" was. check this out nfl players are not allowed to advertise for liquor or beer companies. coors light got around that. patrick mahomes put out an ad promoting the coors light, not the beer, but a flashlight, in the company's words feels as cold as the rocky mountains. benefits will benefit the foundation that is dedicated to improving the lives of children in need. coming up, fallout from the red hot june inflation data. fred luntz will join us next.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times inquire 300 points down on the dow yesterday's session based on the hot numbers. let's get to the cost of food staples. up double digits in june kristina partsinevelos has more on what is behind the rise of prices kristina >> grocery prices up 12% in

june that is the largest since 1979 and pink floyd's "in the wall. given margins are thin at grocery stores, much of the costs have to be passed on one warns it will be worse >> waves of increases. another one going on right now i hear the prices that we are charging for things. i'm stunned by them. i'm shocked by them. i'm angered by them. >> butter, chicken soared in june all up double digits eggs up 33% according to data from bank rate morning cup of joe up 16%. you want sugar up 11% year over year. on top of higher costs, grocers are noticing a trend among suppliers. >> p what they are doing now is putting a surcharge on the

bottom of the bill in other words, if the bill coming to a store was $10,000, they are adding 2% to the bottom of the bill. so $200 surcharge for fuel >> it is not just grocers, ecommerce and retailers like walmart and amazon adding fuel sur charges for third party sellers. fuel costs are making the way down the supply chain. if you don't drive, you are getting hit making the impact of higher fuel costs nearly impossible to avoid. >> all right thank you, kristina partsinevelos. it is impacting all of us. no doubt about it. we get the ppi today hot. we'll see. >> 8:30. let's stick with the topic of inflation and how americans are changing behavior with the rising prices. in a poll, 40% of adults named

inflation as the top priority for the government to work on in the next year. joining us to discuss is frank luntz. frank, great to see you. when you look at the number of 40%, the conundrum and they think that's what the government should work on i'm not saying the government shouldn't work on it, but to a large degree, the government's hands are tied on this issue when you think about how politicians should even talk and describe this issue, what is the approach >> well, the ceo you had on before this expressed precisely what the business community should say which is out agitated that prices are important. andrew, this is what happens when you tell people that things are getting better and they know through their experiences they are not. they have a 3% or 5% pay increase inflation is costing them 10% or 20% more for the things they need

food, fuel, automobiles, housing. all of the things people consume. health care. every day is going up. i'll tell you those numbers that came out yesterday, the 9% increase, to me is the most significant thing of the year because you are just 1% from the threshold from the 10% from the double digit from what we went through in 1980. the context, we see consumer sentiment negative as negative as it has been in years. the direction of the country as negative almost 80% think america is headed in the wrong direction. we see this in terms of spending we know the spending and people can't afford the food they want. returning stuff at the cashier's desk putting off purchases. one more point, the restaurants are suffering in this summer season people are not buying the big ticket items or paying for the

top shelf alcohol. they are traveling, but doing in a more consumer friendly way we have back to school and christmas holidays i would say to every ceo, get the board together and strategist together. this could be the worse christmas season we had in a decade knowing what we went through with covid because at that point people had more money in their pockets and as tight as the economy was -- >> let's talk about how you communicate that there's two audiences or maybe one audience, but two different types of people that i think you talked to. the ceo of the business leader and the political leader trying to reach their constituents. in most cases, in both cases, there's a little bit of my hands are tied i can't do anything. what do you do and how do you explain that do you think there is a lot to be done? there is a debate about that,

too. >> my job is not policy. my job is understand public opinion and understand corporate opinion and understand language. i need to communicate the first aspect is empathy. not dismiss it, but knowledge it and talk about where things are headed and give people choices and options so they make the decisions to allow them to get the things not only that they want, but the things they need >> like what what are the options i don't know if there are a lot of options at this point. >> andrew, we have to figure this out because if you got 21% of americans that get to the checkout line and have to return something because they can't afford it, you have 51% of americans who can't fill up the gas tank and it is getting worse, not getting better. we have to figure out a way to say to people this is what you

can do now this is what you can do as you approach christmas this is the long-term decision making mark my words. we are headed for an explosion we already have political division we already are angry with each other. we are already stressed out. >> frank, i want to make you a political leader for a moment. you are -- let's say you are the leading party or the party controlled, democratic party, which will take the blame for this no matter what. you are them what do you say? i think it is obvious if you are on the other side of that what you should say what you should say is it is the their fault. >> if you play the blame game, you are adding to the problem. it won't work. one party seeking to raise taxes. they are saying we will do it on corporations and do it on only the rich guess what

everyone watching here knows that if you raise taxes, everyone ends up paying for it not just those targeted to it is positively the worst time ever to raise taxes. people already can't afford it andrew, the group i'm watching the most are the family of four and two kids making the average income which is $53,000 a year those are the people who are suffering. the wealthy can afford it. the poor always struggle the people who never thought they would struggle work hard and pay your taxes and put money away for the future. guess what >> you told us what the democrats shouldn't say. raise taxes. what should you say affirmatively? by my count, the american public says this is a mess. these people are in charge it's their fault whether you think it is their fault or not is a different questio question if you were to try to counter

that, what is the narrative? what would you do? >> i would go to the regulation and simplify to make it easier for businesses to operate i make tax relief on those businesses that are holding the line on prices >> frank, would you say drill, baby, drill, to domestic producers or do you say i'm not going to meet with domestic producers and i'll go to saudi arabia and i have no interest because i'll vilify the domestic producers and say they are price gouging and that would concede the things we have done over past couple years which have hampered that industry a lot of pointing fingers at esg or whatever you want to point it the green lobby has hampered production energy filters into food and large part of the inflation is food energy.

>> make no mistake americans want a cleaner and safer country. the idea of drill, baby, drill is a court we trust our energy producers more than we trust russia and more than we trust china anytime you have a domestic, an american answer for this, that is more positive than depending on foreign countries i tried to get through this segment without placing blame or playing politics clearly this is going to have an impact huge impact in november. the other cable stations talk about guns and talk about abortion inflation is, by far, the number one, number two, number three issue. this will have a huge impact for the business community, you also need to focus on how you can make day-to-day life better for your employees if you didn't want them to look else's where for a second job, e

their lives for affordable that makes them more liveable. >> frank luntz, thank you for your perspective on all this. coming up, big banks set to report results from jpmorgan chase in the next few minutes stick around for the latest on the kickoff to earnings season "squawk box" is coming right back >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the professionals gateway to the world's markets.

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welcome back to "squawk box. evolve global summit on tuesday and i spoke with priscilla sims brown and i talked about social issues and particularly on gun reform she is an advocate of tracking armed purchases to help prevent acts of gun violence i asked priscilla how this could make a difference. >> every entity and retailer has a merchant code associated with the business the merchant code doesn't go to

the skew level it doesn't tell us what you purchased within the business, but tells you that you made a purchase from a particular type of business. we're used to and actually benefit from the use of merchant codes and other information, use of data to prevent fraud and prevent human trafficking and prevent mortgage fraud in the case of gun stores, there are no merchant codes. merchant codes for hair salon and shoe shine place and every other retailer no merchant code for gun stores. if we did have a merchant code for gun stores, we could detect patterns to indicate there had been something unusual going on. >> joe, this is something i have been writing and talking about as you know for a couple of years. banks can use the data to help

mass shootings and purchases in advance without infringing on second amendment issues. >> it needs to be different issues you would be infringing on >> no infringement here. >> everybody would be -- >> no. >> what would raise the red flag >> what happens here and actually this is a bipartisan situation. we have merchant category codes for hair salon and nail salon. every airline has a merchant category code. everybody has a merchant category code for all sorts of things what dindustry doesn't it allows the banking system to see patterns when you see somebody often times before a mass shooting, as

you know, 77% of mass shootings are legally bought guns. often times within three weeks of the mass shooting and when people do that, they are not just buying guns, but body armor and jewelry. very strange purchases very unusual purchases related to what they historically bought. you see patterns and you can identify the patterns. because of what happened here and there is no mcc code for this, there is no real way to actually be able to identify the things in advance. >> for a lot of these things, unbelievable patterns online so obvious that totally overlooked why is this different? >> this is probably the best way to actually be able to figure it out. >> if i see something online with this guy, previous two guys, carrying an ar-15 and

talking about their -- these guys telegraphed it so clearly and nothing happened >> the first thing the fbi does after the terrible tragedy is go and look at the financial documents. that's the first thing they do you can see the times you coe the patterns >> and you could see the patterns online. even the father, the night before, talked to the kid. it's awful >> i'm not saying there are not other signs, but this is something you could do that would not infringe on anybody's rights, but it would give us a heads up >> we'll incorporate it with the red flags. you're going on "morning joe" today, right this would be great for them, but we've got j.p. morgan. >> we've got j.p. morgan >> i start doing it, and they are screaming, classic

j.p. morgan, 276 looks like it was below expectations of $2.88. the revenue number, we're hoo looking for 31.9 did you sighee the revenue numbs 30.7 is the revenue number, looking for 31.9 a lot of things that we're going to go into the weeds on. loan growth, credit walt jamie dimon, he said what, a hurricane? >> he said it could be like sandy or something less. >> the stock is not responding very well at this point. dow component down 5%. so you'll probably see the dow get worse, which we are seeing that dow's down about 429 points right now. so ceo jamie dimon says high

inflation, waning consumer confidence will have other negative consequences on the global economy sometimes down the road, dimon says if the bank, temporary buybacks will allow flexibility, and community through a broad range of economic environments joining us now with immediate reaction to the numbers scis cameron dawson loan growth you said would be something important. looking at it, you've had no more time than we've had to look at these numbers what are the highlights that you see? >> that loan gloerowth is reall important. if we look at the data that the federal reserve releases through the quarter, we typically saw double digit loan growth on a

national basis, and it was pretty broad based between industrial, real estate and consumer and for j.p. morgan to present just a high single digit number shows that they tended to underperform the industry on this and it's not just about on this quarter, it's what comes next for loan gloet as interest rates move higher and more economic uncertainty, do we see borrowers start to dial back on the borrowing that they do. so that's what we'll be listening for on the earnings call >> what are the other most important things that give us a look at the inflation picture, the, whether we're heading for a recession. all the other things that we're worried about, macro, what can we look at for j.p. morgan to give us an idea of how to gauge that >> yeah, the reserve build is important. because now that the banks are under the cecil rules, they have to do more reserves for the life of the loan, the risk for the

life of the loan as we see reserves start to build, that will be an indicator of how much risk that they see we also see them pausing the share buybacks, which tells us that they're having to reserve that capital and then it's the question of commentary from jamie dimon about that hurricane and the magnitude of it. and it does look, based on this quarter, that these are the outer bands of that hurricane starting to come in. sg sgllt. >> the revenue number didn't miss by that much. the estimates have been coming down, cameron, and this is still below even the revised estimates, do we think that that's going to be the case with the banks that are still set to report >> well, if we look at the components, it looked like some

of the trading numbers were strong so other banks that have more trading revenue could be a little more supportive we'll look more deeply to see where the source of the revenue miss was, but a lot of people expected that trading could actually come in better than expected this quarter because of all the volatility that we've seen in the fixed business, so fixed commodities and currencies, that helps but on the investment banking side, that's the offset, because we've seen a lot less activity in the investment banks. high-yield issuance is down 75%, ipos down 90% year-to-date >> the company is jamie dimon says, share buybacks are going to be temporarily suspended to maintain maximum flexibility, to quickly meet higher requirements, and the loan loss reserve did go up.

>> go tes back to thinking a str is coming. >> but doesn't look anything like friday's jobs number. it's such a weird economy we're in right now the jobs picture is so strong. maybe that's pandemic related, because not everyone's back, but there are definitely cracks in the notion that we're not going into a slow down there's things that don't look great. >> yeah, and jobs will lack, right? so jobs usually are a very backward-looking indicator companies usually take a lot of time before they actually get to the point of hiring or sorry, firing workers if we look at that jobs data from friday, we saw hours work decline. so it could be an early indicator that employers are starting to cut back on hours before they actually get to firing but it really gets to the point that the feds' tightening of liquidity is immediately impacting financial markets. we're seeing this impact where interest rates have gone up, and

so loan growth should start to slow pretty materially, but it takes time to work its way through to the real economy. but that's the challenge for markets today. because though markets might be pricing in a much weaker environment, the fundamental data not enough to justify the fed pivoting to become accommodated and in the past the fed could be accommodated because inflation was benign but based on yesterday's report, there's no end in sight to this very elevated inflation. >> cameron, thanks the stock is trying to bounce a little bit now down 3% and change thanks for the quick analysis, cameron, appreciate it coming up, much more on the big banks. morgan stanley set to report in the next hour. squawk coming back with a lot

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good morning futures dropping after j.p. morgan admits they missed the mark president biden visiting the middle east before heading to saudi arabia where oil will be the focus. and netflix teaming up with microsoft to power an ad-supported version of its service. will it fly with subscribers and

investors? that's the question. we will discuss as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm joe kernen with andrew ross sorkin becky will be back tomorrow. it's deja vu all over again. it didn't take long after the number came out to watch the futures turn down, and by extension, i think we're still seeing some of that, although j.p. morgan is adding to some of the losses in the dow right now. let's check out treasuries the yield curve steepening with the two-year at 3.2, ten-year,

2.967. oil's been a bright spot, i guess, if you consider coming back down well below 100 a bright spot. what's the reason for it, that might not be such a bright spot. that is if demand does slow as the economy slows globally, you would expect oil prices to come down we may have a slowing economy to thank for it and kroipt bouncing slightly after a tough session yesterday. you see bitcoin just under 20,000 let's get to dom chu with this morning's premarket movers >> so joe, the economic slow down story, that narrative, those kind of headlines that we have talking about and debating for weeks at this point now are maybe factoring into one of the bigger headlines we saw earlier this morning come from bank of america and their equity analyst who is now by the way, who is in charge of their forecast, right, for the s&p 500 for the year,

she has now cut her forecast for the s&p 500 to a street low, 3600 for the s&p by the end of the year, and, again, that's about 5% to 6% below where we closed yesterday and one of the reasons why was this idea of valuations given interest rate trajectories and base rate expectations building for a mild recession they call it in the second half of this year, in 2022. that's all leading to that cut 3600 is their new target price there. so again, about 5%, 6% below current levels in the s&p, that's where they think the s&p will close the year. that's getting chatter on wall street today if you take a look at some of the conflicting cross-current stories, we got better than expected results from the biggest contract maker of computer chips in the world, that's taiwan semi-conductor up about 1.75%

taiwan semi comes out and beats not just its earnings estimates but raises its current outlook for revenue to a level beyond what was expected. so a boost of forecast driving taiwan semi. and then if you're looking for a place that kind of speaks to that recessionary narrative and what's going on with some of the least economically sensitive tight spots, take a look at dollar general, which has been an outperformer over the course of 2022. dollar general shares down by 2% right now, due in large part to analysts at citi who cut this stock from a buy rating to a neutral. they think this has become a more consensus trade and a lot of people have already gotten into these dollar stores because of the threat of a recession coming up. as a result, valuations are kind of more fully baked in for what they think the expectations are for a recessionary story coming

up dollar general, watch the other dollar stores by the way again, i guess we talk a little bit more and more about this idea of an economic slow down starting to resonate a bit more in some of these results as well and joe, by the way, you mentioned those j.p. morgan results out there. interesting to see now that the j.p. morgan results may factor in, i mean, may not, may, they definitely do decide that they're going to reserve more money, right, save more money in case loans go bad going forward, and that's what's kind of weighing on results. you have that economic narrative. maybe you can't fault jamie dimon who called it an economic hurricane that we have coming up >> the blue chip stock, dom. 170 to 108 that will get your attention when you open up your statement. >> not just that, these guys are arguably one of the better

barometers of the u.s. economy >> and the quality in the banking sector do the math. you are sitting on some pretty big losses now in one of the most, the bluest of the blue chips. and that does remind me of some periods in the past where we've seen breaks like this. you don't have to be a nasdaq stock to go down 30% >> no, and it maybe speaks the money is where the mouth is that they're using their checkbooks, right? because this idea that they're suspending share buybacks means they're wanting to be more conservative >> loan losses >> the loan loss reserves are huge that's what's driving the results. but it exhibits conservatism as well the investment banking side of the business came in pretty markedly below expectations as well so you may be factoring in a little bit more of this notion that there's a slow down not just in the broader economy but that the wall street capital

market side of the equation is already feeling it >> feeling it. >> that's 37%. >> but think about it. if you're in the investment banking business right now, it's not a lot of action. i mean, deal making. if you're a buyer, nobody wants to sell to you, because they think the price -- if you're a seller, not sure what your real price is s spax have gone away. >> it's like when you're playing offense in that business >> how much is playing defense to your point, joe, we've already talked, j.p. morgan chase is just one, wells fargo included other real estate firms like red fin who have announced layoffs, and then you have this whole overarching theme, right, about this kind of capital market's out of the equation.

it took so little amount of time and all of a sudden we're talking about layoffs. this big scoop from lauren thomas about the fitness company laying people off, layoffs coming in other parts of the market, not just in technology but consumer goods ago well. so it feels weird that the story has shift sod ed so quickly froy the job market is so crazy it's a curious story >> we're back to 2019 levels we're not back to, on j.p. morgan we're not back to the pandemic lows, when it was below 100, 90, maybe even a little bit below there. but then like everything else, nothing like a pandemic for stock prices, which we're still trying to figure that out, but now we're headed back down to almost where we were pre-pandemic, not quite at the beginning of the pandemic. thanks, dom. coming up, senator tom

cotton sounding off on esg we'll ask him about that, plus discuss the president's trip to saudi arabia, the administration's energy policy and much more. before we head to break. rks.s get a check on the "s quawk box" coming right back he was equal part style and skill. he won eleven majors. it's said he'd show up in a limo after partying all night. on the first tee, he'd ask, “what's the course record?” then he'd hoist the trophy on eighteen. the golf course was his stage. and now, it's yours. walter hagen apparel. available at dick's and golf galaxy.

welcome back to "squawk box. president biden's energy policies are under scrutiny as he visits saudi arabia want to welcome senator tom cotton that's where i want to go with th this conversation. you have been outspoken and wrote this letter to blackrock effectively saying that their policies and power and influence over companies around esg are too much what's the argument you're making, and then we can maybe dig into it. >> what larry fink and blackrock have done essentially create a climate cartel they are trying to suppress investment in the fossil fuel industry in america. and i know you have a lot of ceos and investors who watch i would just say this. if you are thinking about

joining this climate cartel, you better think again, and you better lawyer up there's a reason why america's top law firms are advising their clients to be wary, because th this is contributing to $5 a gallon gas and when republicans take charge in november, i'm going to make sure that the congress investigates these matters this is a fiduciary abuse. and possibly a criminal violation. when we win back the white house in 2024 and the department of justice and federal trade commission is no longer an ideological and partisan weapon against the oil and gas industry, some of these executives could be facing time in federal prison. i would encourage attorney think carefully. >> we're going to take the temperature down just a second and i want to dig into the issue, by you coming on television and being this outspoken, in a way you are,

it's a bit of a signal more than a signal, to the rest of the business community to effectively stand down on potentially where we're going with this, an issue that they feel is the right investment decision that's where i want to, what i want to ask you about. you've been a big believer, you believe in capitalism, i have seen your quotes, a believer in the free markets there is an argument to be made that there is money to be made by investing in climate and in clean technologies and the like and clearly i would argue to you that if blackrock were sitting here right now they would make that argument. they would say that pension funds around the world, european pension funds and others, have decided to pool their money from one place and put it in another place, and what they've been telling their investors and clients is that we should be following that trend because that's where the money is.

>> well, it's where the government money is, andrew. sure, there may be money to make in these industries, because their democratic pals in congress are rewarding with them with all kinds of tax breaks and subsidies, but the simple fact is that these companies may be making money coming and going. a lot of these esg funds have higher fees than other funds more over, blackrock and larry fink have insisted they have not divested from fossil fuels for all we know, they are trying to increase the stock prices of those like exxon so they can make more money on that scam as well j >> i don't understand the scam of this. if they are keeping their fossil fuels, and they can criticize from the left from doing that, and they are putting money or encouraging companies to invest more in climate because they

believe that's where the future is from an investment perspective, what's wrong with that >> it's not so much that they're trying to invest in green technology, andrew, it's that they're trying to withhold capital from companies that use fossil fuels. >> you just -- >> it kind of resembles a pump and dump scheme, andrew. in one moment they're saying we're going to cut off access. that means there's underinvestment in the oil and gas industry, which means there's not enough supply. >> both of us just stipulated that they're not doing that, they're not divesting. >> but andrew, they're trying to cut, that's the stated goal of climate action is to cut off access to the capital markets to these companies, that's the reason why we're pumping almost a million barrels fewer per day of oil in this country when demand spikes. usually when you see demand

spike you see companies rushing in to produce more they're not. that's why they have record high profits. if joe biden and the democrats don't like the profits of oil companies they should increase production which will bring down the profits and the price at the pump one reason you don't see that increase is because they are being targeted by the climate cartel >> so, i mean, here's the question that i would ask sort of a quote-unquote free market i think there's a lot of forces at play that have led to the moment that we're in part of it's politics. there's though question. yo no question i he nknow you have issues with biden administration in terms of their approach, but in terms of the decisions that businesses are making, i think on an individual basis, unless you

really do believe that this is a cartel and an anti-trust issue, what's to say that this somewhat t is what they want to do. >> it is a cartel and an anti-trust issue it's not larry fink and blackrock using their own money. larry fink is taking money from millions of retail investors and using the power he has by managing those shares to vote new boards of directors onto these companies or insist they change their policy as opposed to maximizing shareholder value. the reason he's doing that in part is this ideological opposition to the oil and gas industry in america. you see it reflected in his democratic friends in the congress or the white house. joe biden would rather go to venezuela or iran to get more oil and gas than he would go to texas, arkansas, louisiana and north dakota >> what do you think of -- i mean when you come on the air and have these discussions,

there are ceos watching us right now. and i think that they're hearing you, and, again, if you win in 2022, 2024, et cetera, given what you just said about putting people in jail and the like, that will make them have potentially a different view of this but isn't that politics? over business >> no. that is called applying the law in a neutral and even-handed way. anti-trust laws are very clear on these kind of cartels, combinations and conspiracies. and there are real victims here, not just companies that use these fuels and produce them, but families in arkansas who are trying to stretch their budgets to pay for $5 a gallon gas or pay for diesel for their tractors there are real victims here that are target of these dcartels, s a lot of fancy investment bankers can feel good about themselves, so they can think

they drive an electric car when really they drive a coal-powered car. >> there are banks that have made certain decisions, maybe on risk, but maybe on politics. j.p. morgan and citigroup have frankly struggled to underwrite bond in a state because they say we will loan effectively to anybody, and it changes the dynamic, though. clearly politics have entered the fray >> well, politics has entered the fray of many of these major corporations that are run by executives or 27-year-old liberal mbas whispering in their ear about the climate cartel or disfavored industries. they shouldn't be surprised when

conservative states stand up to reflect the views of their conservative voters, and there's a lot of states like texas who have a lot of money under investment a lot of these wall street bankers would like to manage that money they shouldn't expect those states to give them that money when they are targeting our voters' views and interests and aspirations for divestment >> so senator, i guess 2022, if your party were to control either house it'd be one thing, then you talk about 2024 but just in terms of, of trying to help the fossil fuel industry in the united states, what needs to be done there's executive orders, i guess, that would have to be reversed is there active legislation that you would institute that would open up areas or get rid of some of the regulations on refineries what should be done in your view, if things change in 2022

and 2024 and how long does it take for those to bear fruit? how long are we going to be stuck with, you know, close to $100 oil >> joe, there's no single solution, because there's no single weapon the democrats have used to strangle our oil and gas industry it's been a slow strangulation, but there are steps that we can take we can ensure that the department of interior is offering lease plans is selling or offering new sales. we can ensure they're making permits available for those who have leases. we can streamline approval process for major, multi-billion dollar capital expenditures like export facilities. these are signals to the industry and investors that the fossil fuel industry is a good, safe investment that will produce returns for decades to come basically, we'll just stop the rhetorical war on oil and gas and coal in america, because

every time joe biden, chuck schumer or bernie sanders launches that war it makes it less likely that investment money will go into the industry. we should be celebrating america's oil and gas industry we shouldn't be looking down our nose as joe biden and democrats do at coal miners and roughnecks in america while they turn a blind eye to china >> when you look at a lot of folks making decisions around investing in clean tech or other things like that or frankly moving their money in that direction, they're making a long-term bet, and i would argue by the way in the short term, it has had an impact on the cost of fuel and energy prices today no question. and perhaps that was a mistake i don't even know if it's perhaps. it was a mistake because clearly this is going to take the evolution of this is going to take a lot longer than i think people had imagined and is creating some of these issues that we're confronting today,

but at the same time, i think you would agree that over the next ten years, i don't know, is 15 years, there will be a lot of opportunity. and that's where we want to go i think you would agree with that am i wrong >> andrew, for our lifetime, oil and gas and coal and nuclear are still going to be the most reliable and affordable sources of energy for america. we get almost 90% of our energy from those sources even if you look at renewable fuels we get more than twice as much from water and wood and crops as we get from wind and solar combined so wind and solar power may be a part of the energy mix, they may provide solutions, especially on a local scale here and there, but the idea that we are simply going to stop using oil, gas, coal and nuclear power to power

this country, to literally power our economy is fantasy, and it's what contributed to arkansans paying almost $5 a gallon for gas. >> i will tell through i do not disagree with you at all on the nuclear it's an issue that we have not -- >> we haven't also addressed, senator, we can, we already have the cleanest if low emissions is your thing, we're already there in terms of natural gas. the actual impact that we can make as a country versus india and china over the next 20 years and, you know, while maybe, you know, i'm not worried about us, that if we have to tighten our belts, but we're seeing around the world right now that even lesser developed countries that are expected to hit certain emissions goals, it's already having an effect, while germany is forced to go back to coal and india and china are, you know, opening more coal plants than they have in the past. so i, do you believe that we can

make a difference as a country, single-handedly on lowering the emissions in the next 25 year without the help of china and india? >> joe, you make a fgood point, we have already made a difference greenhouse gas emissions have been declining in this country for 15-plus year the way we can continue to make a difference is investing more in nuclear-powered generation, but china produce more than double the greenhouse gas emissions we do. and let's just say that china is not going to stop its efforts to grow its economy to overtake us to replace us as a world super power, because john kerry wants to have some big signing agreement on some climate accord >> they probably fund half the esg. china, they're laughing as they're funding it, and we're, you know, they're just, they have no intention of -- i don't think they, they're looking at

us and say wow, we'll pass them while they're standing still and they're feeling virtuous >> not only is china probably funding it like russia has funded the anti-fracking movement in the west over the last 20 year, but they are benefitting from it. china is the world's largest producer of so-called green technology, largely through state subsidies and other policies america is one of the world's largest producers of oil and gas. it would be a geopolitical catastrophe for us to underwrite the energy industry of our main enemy, while we are strangling our main source of energy. >> it is a loconversation we appreciate you having it with us >> we'll be back in just a moment morgan stanley results we have them right after the break. paul is about to suffer a shelf-inflicted injury. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac! maybe you could use the money to buy a step stool.

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welcome back to "squawk box. we have morgan stanley results just out, after j.p. morgan news leslie >> hey, andrew, it doesn't look too dissimilar from j.p. morgan's news. another top and bottom miss this morning for morgan stanley, that

follows in j.p. morgan's stood steps and fell short of the street's estimate. can you see that stock down about 2.5% investment banking a key revenue driver for the firm. that was down 55%, missing analyst estimates in the division as well, thanks to that slump in m&a and underwriting that has carried over from q1 but appears to be even steeper in its declines during q2. management also lower this quarter at morgan stanley. mixed incomes seeing year-over-year growth in that division thanks in part to volatility during q2 earlier, j.p. morgan reported a double miss as well and said it was temporarily suspending buybacks thanks to the stress test requirements that it had to be more conservative on that front. as such, that stock falling as well, can you see down 2.9%. though it was facing steeper

declines earlier this morning. digging in further to j.p. morgan's reports, that 28% decline in earnings during the quarter was primarily dprriven y a reserve bill that interest income, the profitability boosted by higher interest rates thanks in charge from loan making just like its peer, investment banking fees did slump during the quarter. about 30%, steeper than q1 declines, but better than the 45% declines that management had guided to earlier this year. markets revenue came in at the low end of guidance, of 15%. andrew >> so leslie, you're looking at both these banks and we're trying to understand the health of the economy or at least what this says about

the health of the economy. j.p. morgan, jamie in particular about suspending these buybacks and plus what's happening in the banking investment business. you're seeing the market down, what, 2.5% 3% >> yeah. >> the question is, is this a throw the kitchen sink at it now situation? or is this a drip, drip, drip situation? that's what the market's trying to understand. >> yeah, i think what this is emblematic of is just the psychology right now if you look at what's going on, on the consumer basis, deposits are up, decent hloan growth and debit card and credit card spending as well still very strong. however, the psychology, they're not doing deals, they're monot taking their companies public. so that has more to do with just

the fact that they're paying attention to what the market is doing, but maybe not as emblematic as what they're seeing on the ground with regard to consumer spending and how the bulk of the economy, the consumer spending side of things is really reacting in this hurt environment. >> leslie, thank you for helping us break this down this morning. appreciate it. >> mm-hm still to come. netflix teaming up with microsoft for its ad-supported service. and hits keep on coming. tell your friends. you satw tom cotton in the next hour, ted cruz is going to be on the hits keep on coming. you're going need a nap after today's show >> you know, the point of great

journalism >> i know, i know. you're doing a great job we're going to do it again with ted cruz he's going to join us. "squawk box" will be right back.

this is some of the worst

levels we've seen for the futures this morning, the nasdaq giving back premarket 117. s&p down 53. coming up, the battle between twitter and elon musk, the topic of "on the other hand" with jon fortt. he joins us with a preview >> twitter suing elon musk to force him to complete the $44 billion deal is that the right move or should they let the billionaire walk and think about the future

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welcome back to "squawk box. twitter this week suing elon musk should twitter be forcing musk into a deal he tonight want? and john jon fortt is here to weigh in. >> let's recap how we got here three months ago, elon musk made an offer to buy twitter. musk threatened to take the question directly to twitter shareholders, then twitter agreed to the deal which musk

signed he started criticizing the company, its leaders and the way it estimates the number of fake accounts at this point musk clearly doesn't want twitter anymore, and twitter's leadership isn't too fond of him either if they focus on this lawsuit they face winning the battle and losing the war it needs stable visionary leadership, technical focus, probably cost cuts, and now during the broader crisis is the time to take that corrective action twitter can't air d afford the or years >> he's richest man in the world, signed a deal to buy the company and you're saying to walk from the whole thing and say it never even happened >> andrew, on the other hand, yes, twitter should sue elon

into buying the company. it's got no other choice imagine this scenario, an eccentric, local tycoon offers to buy your house, you don't particularly want to move. then he gets aggressive and office you well above market you negotiate with your wife and he agrees to buy the place as is both parties sign the paperwork. the for-sale sign in your yard flips to sold. then he wants to see the last three years of electric bills. he wants to spend the night to see what it's like to shleep there, but then he tells everyone that your house is a termite-infested crack den then he says he's not buying the house after all because you breached the contract. he signed a deal with no

contingencies and he owes you the money. that's twitter right now >> this could drag on for years, jon, no? >> well, legal expert yesterday told me he thinks end of the year this will have a decision i don't know >> where are you really? what's the true jon fortt of the world? >> i started off on one side, then i read the 62-page complaint from twitter it's a good read i recommend it, and i ended up on the other side. >> the other side being that they should sue? >> well, you know, i'll leave that to everyone's imagination >> okay. by the way, i think that the solution here, from a contractual perspective you have to sue, there's no other way to do it, and i actually think the likelihood is that a judge in a normal world would say, congratulations, mr. musk, you now own twitter and you're going

to pay $44 billion for it. do you actually hand over twitter to a guy who doesn't want it, if it was a large company you might actually force him, pabecause it's an individul maybe you don't. but take what the price was, $44 billion. take what the price is today and say you've got to pay the difference then the question is you either pay the difference, which could be $10 billion, $15 billion for nothing, because you get nothing or you pay 44 for the whole thing. that's my solution and that, there's no two sides to that. >> you know. you're splitting the baby there or threatening to. is there a scenario where elon musk says oh, just take my billion. >> or walk away from the whole thing thing. it outlines contract law if nothing happens i think it really, i mean, if you care about the law at all >> i look forward to elon's

lawyers' response to that. it's quite a read. >> and hopefully he'll keep tweeting, that was a pretty funny tweet. now you want me. >> it's in the complaint ooh, ooh >> i'm just waiting for twitter to suspend elon musk for like the duration of the lawsuit. >> they've been playing chess this whole time. so much discipline, and it's all in there >> yep >> yeah. coming up, netflix teaming up with, had in this case microt we'll discuss that after the break. we head to that break, here's a look at the winners and losers in the s&p this morning. "squawk box" coming right back

quick check on j.p. morgan and morgan stanley, after the banks reported earlier you can see morgan stanley down just a half percent. j.p. morgan affecting the dow but off its lows you can see the futures. mean while, netflix has chosen microsoft for an

ad-supported version were you surprised with microsoft? they do have some good connections between the two companies, i guess, but is it the best thing for netflix >> i was a little bit surprised, just because microsoft's addressable ad solution, mining the advertising solution that can cater to streaming is still relatively new they acquired a company called xander from at&t it's a great fit but a little unexpected i hadn't heard of microsoft with these big deals and xander quite yet. >> what does non-intrusive look like you watch everything, sara i know what a non-intrusive ad looks like do you think they can thread that needle? >> if you take a lolook at hu

they 70% of their subscriptions on the ad platform there to them this seemed foreign for a really long time fast forward to 2022 streaming advertising really is mainstream almost every single one of their competitors has an ad-supported tier i think netflix is going to be able to thread the needle well my question is, are they too little too late. some of their competitors, as i mentioned disney with hulu have been doing this for years. so netflix has a lot of brand relationships, a lot of catch-up to do if they want to get this started by the end of the year >> what is the main thing that netflix needs to sort of face,

the day of wrreckoning, i'm mote s not just the ads the subscriber growth probably isn't going to match what it was a year ago, even globally, and then the difficulty of going hit after hit of a hit when you have so much competition for the best writers, the best scripts, the best ideas i don't know necessarily whether monetaryizing the service with ads, it's not a panacea for netflix' long-term problems. >> that is an absolutely correct point. first of all, they have to get the password sharing under control. they've acknowledged that they think there's 100 million accounts they could recoup second of all, they have to figure out some of these licensing relationships. now that all the other media companies have taken their content back, netflix has to

figure out how they're going to make the service as good as it used to be the final thing that netflix will have to figure out is discoverability. how many times have you been on netflix, and you see 12 different slates on your screen and you're thinking, i don't really know what i should watch. let me google it and see what other people think it wastes a lot of time sand is frustrating. the challenge is they're going into a bear market and investors want to see the results quickly. this is something they're going to have to take on in a very short amount of time >> you're right. i need a couple additional lines for, to you want to continue watching these i have like 50 shows that i've watched for three minutes on netflix. and actually, it took me a while to get on yesterday. i think my tv was like, what's it called again? when i asked for it, oh, you haven't been on there in a

while. so i think that's the elephant in the room. it's hard. it's hard to, i don't know how much stranger are the things that are happening now on "stranger things", are they that much stranger? do i need to see that, sara? >> i can't even watch "stranger things" anymore because it's gotten so strange and cooky. >> i haven't tried at this point. >> great thing you mentioned "stranger things." that's the anomaly netflix when they were a subscription service only ran things for a few seasons what i'm excited about is now that they're getting into ad supported, maybe they'll give some of their shows like "stranger things" much longer runs, that will make consumers happy. >> sara, do you have one thing i should be watching

on any service major league baseball? i got that network, but the all-star break's coming up, maybe the open the open's on right now. st. andrews. >> ooh you know, if i could say, i think i'm most excited about soccer coming to streaming i mean obviously, we're towards the end of the season, and we're not going to get that back probably till the fall but hunyou had laliga, bundeslia soccer is a hot thing i'm looking forward to in streaming. >> no kidding. i think that's representative of where we are looking forward to soccer. wow. thank you. no, it's great i love soccer. i think they should use their hands, it's so much easier to score. >> use your hands? >> said that all along, don't you think? it's so hard to to everything with your -- >> when i was a kid, i wanted to

and goalie >> at yeah, there you go it just seems like a no-brainer to me. the june ppi the numbers straight ahead plus, much more on the bank earnings we're seeing from jpm and morgan stanley, surprising on the down side the futures ahead are in the red. look at the dow. 430 points down. s&p off 53 points, nasdaq off 112 points we're coming back with a big hour ahead what do you want to leave behind? that's your why. it's your purpose, and we will work with you every step of the way to achieve it.

there's something out here.

and we will work with you every step of the way - nope. - nope. nope. nah. no. nope. - hell no. - no. the hotter each number is, maybe we get a little bit desensitized, but we'll see what the number is this morning futures already, though, pointing to big losses on wall street the dow and s&p currently on four-day losing streaks. they're getting a little bit of the back last week we're back in the soup driving some of that premarket action, earnings, new rules from jp morgan and morgan stanley, bringing them to new a cummins as the final hour of "squawk

box" begins right now. good morning, welcome back to "squawk box." i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen we've not red across the screen. got these bank earnings that i think are adding to some nerves in the market mace right now. dow off about 430 points we're going to show you intetreasury yields we've been looking you're looking at the five-year and the two-year over three at this point so the inversion is there on the screen in front of you finally, crude oil, you want to buy it by the barrel their

morning. wti, going to cost you 93.96, coming down just a little bit, but not necessarily helping the larger picture and what jamie dimon seems to be signaling to the markets today. >> do we need to see anything other than $39 alt$93? that is saying something about the name are we going to go 1200 basis points not all bad, i guess morgan stanley's kind of flat. j.p. morgan initially sold off >> we're off the worst levels, if you want to look at it that way, but the company-specific stories are huge, especially with the banks let's hit those right off the bat here you mentioned morgan stanley,

off one half of 1% it reportis profits and revenues due in part to weaker results, trading operations on both the equities and fixed income side of the business were pretty robust so that helped countierer some f the weakness then you have the most valuable bank in america. j.p. morgan chase is down 3%, again, off its session lows, half a million shares of trading volume the banking giant reporting weaker than expected profits and revenues due in part to weaker than expected resulting at its investment banking unit. andrew mentioned this.

ceo jamie dimon saying that inflation will be a drag on the overall global economy so interesting economic commentary coming from the biggest bank and conagra is involvely down a percent or so. it reports better than expected profits. its revenues were roughly in line with estimates. conagra, by the way, did see a key measure of profit margins squeezed by higher input costs conagra among the three big earnings reports that are going to drive a lot of that kind of micro economic company specific story that we have in the economy overall, joe >> thanks, you know, honestly, they are fascinating, had but w

seen this movie before with loan loss reserves. they release some, book some it affects the bottom line, but we always discount whether it actually matters well, that was from reversing reselves reserves that they had taken the big picture is it's likely to get worse in the next three months >> you can kind of glean a little bit something, because it's the responsibility of managers at all these big banks, especially the publicly-traded ones, to kind of transparently give an idea of what they think could be bad loans in the future, right? and they'd have to kind of make an allowance for that. so can you glean a little bit about how much they think it

will be in the future. we understand if it doesn't come to fruition we see a boost in subsequent quarters. and then all of a sudden those profits that were taken away, previous quarters are kind of padded in subsequent ones in the future but it kind of says something. by the way, we use j.p. morgan chase as a precedent setter. it's typically one of the bigger banks to report. the issue is whether it becomes trend like that many of the big banks and larger banks and regional banks as well start to increase their loan loss reserves f it doesn't just become a multiple issue, right? it become as outright earnings are lower, and even if you assign the same multiple to them, the overall value of the market becomes lower so there are so many different variables, but, again, their is onthis is one of those situations where you don't want to talk yourself

into a recession nobody's saying it's all gloom and doom >> we have the two offsetting forces that after the pandemic one is that you want to do these things you haven't done for two years. so you've got theiris but all that temporary stimulus that you had that you felt pretty flush for a while, you've been slowly working that off so you want to do things, but you might not have as much as you had, let's say a year ago. that makes me wonder, the card net charge off rate with less than 2%. but are we getting to the point where a lot of people have worked off those stimulus checks at this point and now credit card could get a lot less th than 2%. >> j.p. morgan is one of the big issuers out there. they're starting to see an uptick in the amount of money people are spending on credit

cards, maybe beyond the bigger banks, what you want to look for, whether or not you do see more americans not just spending on credit cards but carrying balances on credit cards and that kind of speaks to the inflationary narrative as well as a kind of -- i wouldn't say deterioration, because that makes it sound so negative but maybe those consumer balance sheets that got propped up because of government stimulus checks and erg verything else ae starting to incrementally increase i like millions of other americans probably feel like the spending side of things, i'm not doing as much spending right now because i am one of those folks who does feel that prices will come down in the future. if that were to happen, what does that kind of do to the overall picture for the economy right now. i'm going to wait to spend until prices get lower >> i know a lot of people who have moved into the watch and wait >> if i want to buy a car, i got

to tell you, i'm going to wait until there's a supply glut, rather than right now. i think those prices are coming down >> you are hearing this in the housing business, too, in terms of construction, remodelling and that whole universe as well, thinking that the prices have gone up 20%, 30% for things and people saying what happens if i wait a year. >> i'm doing it for a bathroom renovation for sure. >> there we have it, the dom indicator. meantime, the biden administration ramping up pressure on congress to pass $52 billion in funding for the semi-conductor industry as republicans proclaim the measure is quote stuck we are joined this morning with more what's the latest here good morning, andrew congress is considering a new strategy to provide billions of dollars of aid for the chip industry before august recess. they're talking about passing the bill with the money and leaving the rest behind.

lawmakers have been working on a sweeping bipartisan package of bills, focussed on american competition and competition and innovation for more than a year mitch mcconnell has threatened to tank it last night, mark warner said he is ready to to ccut to the chase >> around chips, 5g, the investment tax credit, there seem to be an awful lot of room. i think we ought to take that and whatever else people can agree on and get it to the floor within the next ten days >> warner was coming out of a classified briefing on the threat the semi-conductor shortage poses to national security the house will get its own briefing this afternoon. top white house officials have been telling congress that chip makers need help now to get concrete in the ground their

fall t i'll be interviewing gina raimondo about all of this before she heads over to the hill to continue pushing lawmakers to do something. >> very, very quickly. everybody's pointing fingers who's putting the pork in this and what is the pork on both sides if there is pork >> yeah, so really folks are pointing to mcconnell, saying he's going to withdraw republican support, that they had already voted for a version of this bill now they won't do that unless democrats stop moving forward on a separate bill on reconciliation so it seems like the only path forward is either for the house to accept the senate version or to just go on that very narrow path that's been the engine of this bill all along >> thank you for that. meantime, president biden wrapping up a news conference with the israeli prime minister. want to great straight to kayla

who joins with us more on. that >> president biden has been in the middle east after 36 hours in israel, holding a press conference his broad strategy has been to promote the middle east. there have been focus on his travels to saudi arabia later this week and meetings with gulf producers there. but the focus has been squarely on iran which analysts suggest could add up to 1 million barrels per day to the market if some sort of nuclear agreement is reached israel's prime minister said adversaries of the jewish state can only be met with a credible military threat. he has continuously supported a return to the 2015 nuclear deal. but with talks stalled there since march, he was asked how long the u.s. is willing to see that strategy play out

>> we've laid out for the people, for the leadership of iran what we're willing to accept when we get back in the jcpoa. we're waiting for that response. when that will come, i'm not certain, but we're not going to wait forever >> prime minister lapid said the two allies would work in close consultation on any agreement going forward. >> thank you for that report we will be keeping our iceyes o this big trip. coming up, june producer prices on the way. ahead of that, steve liesman tells us how gloomy president biden's economic approval rating is at this point and after the inflation data, texas senator ted cruz jnsoi us for a wide-ranging interview

you don't want to miss it, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning the futures now, we are in the red. things have gotten worse, tdow looks like that would open down

about 444 points i think a lot of this is on the signaling from jamie dimon this morning about the suspension of those buybacks, increase in loan loss reserves and what that may portend for the economy come this fall. and for that, we're going to talk to another good friend of ours lies-mania one of the biggest take aways from the latest cnbc all america economic survey, looking forward to seeing this, steve. he joins us now with the data. around all america everywhere >> yeah. all americans. across the nation, joe president biden's overall and economic approval numbers plumbing depths not seen as concern over inflation is placed directly at the door of the oval office and its current occupant. his approval rating dropping

five points to just 30%. the president never had republicans and has now firmly lost independents and even a chunk of democrats in key demographic groups who put him in office. president trump never went below 41% and 37% was the lowest we could find for president obama the survey at 800 people found that 51% think the president's efforts to combat naiginflation making no difference these numbers come amid the worst economic outlook that we've recorded in the 15 year history of the survey. 52% think the economy will get worse over the next year just 22% believe it will improve. both of those are survey records, and they're worst

numbers in objectively worst times like the financial crisis. americans see bad times ahead. 6% think we're already in recession. we've never seen numbers like this you can see that shading never seen numbers like this outside of an actual recession and just 38% see their home prices going up in the next 12 months, that's the lowest since the onset of the pandemic. if there's any good news for the president is that jobs are not top issues for americans, but the cost of living outstrips every other concern of americans by a two to one margin, joe. >> thanks, steve did you ask anyone when they're going to be happier about thing sths things are we in a multi-year malaise things like this don't turn around quickly, i don't think. >> it's a good question, joe this really gets at fed policy

is it all tied to the gas prices? all tied to inflation? can we bring inflation down and buoy the spirits of americans? i don't know what is clear to me is let's say you were charitable here and say biden was dealt a bad hand for a bunch of reasons, russia, the pandemic, i'm not saying he's responsible. let's just say you say that. it is clear here he has not really dealt with it very well in terms of presenting a plan to americans. what normally happens, guys, i wontd don't know if can you bring the wall back up usually at some point when things are bad, americans believe they're going to get better sometimes in the worst possible moment the outlook ends up being good that is motte thenot the case rw look at that little dip. only 15% of the public thought

things would get worse in october 2020, why? because they thought things would get better we are not there there is not the belief of the american public that there is a plan out there by the way, i think that translates as well to the federal reserve. i hate to bring it back to that all the time but there is not a real solid belief in the plan of the fed, belief by markets. i know we got to get to 8:30, but i think that's true in the administration when it comes to the public >> thanks, steve, we do need to run. appreciate it. >> as we've been telling you, we will get new producer price inflation data at the bottom of the hour in just about eight minutes from thousanow, but our guest says it's a five-alarm fire for the fed joining us, good morning to you, a five-alarm fire. we also heard some alarm bells this morning from j.p. morgan. layer it all together for us >> yeah, first of all, thanks

for having me. i think one of the big things that came out of the cp "i-r i repor yesterday was that we're seeing more persistent inflationary effects that are happening that look much more domestic based. one of the things that we really focus in on is the rent, the rental measures. of course they have stepped up and we expect them to stay there. in addition, even on a good side, i think what's really important is that even though you're seeing some indications that actual demand for goods is falling, we're not actually seeing inflation start to fall there. it hooklooks like it's a lot moe sticky it should be concerning for fed officials, and the things they should be debating as a result of that is not about, you know, if we go restrictive, but how

restricted do we need to be and do we need to bring the economy into contraction to get inflation back in order. >> you go to 100? >> well, i think that clearly that is the key question right now we had an outsized move in the funds federate at 75-point basis hike in june. we think we get more of that in july and september and i think certainly getting the funds federate rate up is n there. at a minimum getting it up to restrictive territory. >> if you go to 100, what does the market do? does that do the trick even a one shot? i don't know if it's adrenaline. i don't know what it will do to the market >> i think certainly 100 basis points is going to be on the table because again i think they want to get the policy rate, they need to realign the policy rate as quickly as possible.

i think the sep suggested three four and then something like 4% three eight next year. i think front loading that and getting that done all this year i think makes a lot of sense just to position monetary policy in the case that you have to go higher than that 3.8 that they had already been projecting. >> tiffany, great to see you this morning that data coming up in about six minutes from now coming up, texas senator ted cruz on inflation, energy and his move to rein in where the u.s. exports its oil reserves. inreintoc. quk x" will be right back. buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them.

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coming up, producer prices, nep, another inflation read for ju the release and instant market reaction when "squawk box" comes right back you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome back to "squawk box," rick santelli here with a litany of live breaking news from cme hq. let's start off with the consumer price index for june. up 1.1 up 1.1 on headline we were expecting up .8 of 1%. of course the high watermark is up 1.6 in march. up .4 if you strip out the all-important food and energy. .1 lighter than the rear view

mirror and if we strip out food and energy and trade, up .3, .2 light. and on that score, you have to go all the way back to january of '21 to see the high watermark, which is up 1%. so we really dropped in that regard now the most important year-over-year numbers, 11.3 on year-over-year headline, only .2 below 11.5, the march high watermark. 8.2 on year over year core that's as expected that follows 8.3 high watermark also in march at 9.6, so that is separating down a bit. and finally, year over year, 6.4. .4 lighter than 6.8, and 7.1, the high watermark from march.

initial jobless claims really jumping here from last week's 235,000 jumping up to 244,000, up 9,000 and we continue to trend higher on continuing claims, 1,331,000. that is definitely much lighter than expected and much lighter than the rear view mirror. so good news on continuing claims, initial claims keep trending higher. and on the inflation side, it's rather unusual that headline month over month was the scary part, and of course headline year-over-year was the most intense. they're not going to be filtered through the same prism as yesterday's consumer price index, but important nonetheless, and a series of revisions are coming in, forecasts, but nothing is super substantial. so we'll leave it at that as interest rates continue to be firmer in the short maturities

the most inverted since 2000, hovering right below minus 25 basis points >> steve joins us with his analysis, what do you say? >> you know, maybe, you squint a little bit, and maybe there's some good news in here if you take out the energy component. i have 0.4, a bit of a come down i'm trying to figure out how much this trade services thing play played into it there are economists out there who think it's an elevated but again, you got to squint, because you really don't want to walk away from the idea that it's another hot inflation report i do think that what's going to happen is that the commodity price decline that we have will show up here in producer prices.

first, i guess that's going to be a next month thing, and then what will happen is it will take some time. it's the reason i'm not quite as optimistic as jim cramer is on this i know you'll talk to him in a second it's more of a timing thing. i think jim's right, it's going to happen. i just don't know when you get this flow through from softer producer prices which is going to happen down to the consumer level. i think there's some gap in there and timing as to when that happens, but i think next month you're going to have somewhat better consumer price report >> thank you, steve. appreciate it. >> all right, joining us now to talk more about the new inflation tdata as well as legislation that he introduce thad would block the u.s. from selling oil from the strategic oil from certain countries it wasn't the high watermark for

ppi. it was still double digits, still a concerning number, shatt senator, but we have seen rollover in commodities, and even in oil, which was at 92 today. maybe, i'm just hookilooking foe light at the ind end of the tun. hopefully it's not the train coming at us i'm trying to figure out what we do with the labor issue. >> the only light at the end of the tunnel i see is that we have an election coming in november and i think the election in november is going to be a big, big election changing the path we're on i'm here in washington, d.c. today. this place is surreal. the democratic white house, the democratic majority as we have right now, he see these inflation numbers, the highest numbers since 1981 and their answer is to pour more gasoline on the fire their idea is spend trillions more money and raise taxes even more and this is exactly backwards

what you would want to do if you actually wanted to stop inflation to bring it under control. we've not right now the highest inflation rate since 1981, 1981 was after four years of jimmy carter and it really is striking that biden has been able to produce in a year and a half what it took jimmy carter four years to produce. and the democrats don't seem to have learned any lesson, other han than doing more of the same that got us in this mess to begin with >> in terms of supply chain, lingering issue there, senator joe biden didn't appoint j. powell his predecessor did. and obviously, there's a lot of pointing at the number of dollars that were printed, which are now chasing, you know, too few goods, and i know, you know, you probably have never uttered the words putin price hike, but

that has rippled, the invasion of ukraine has rippled through all different sectors. >> let's take to you each of those one at a time. which is number one, yes, the economy reopened, which was great for the economy, it had been democratic politicians who had largely shut down the economy for far too long that was a good thing for the economy, getting people back to work that didn't drive inflation. what drove inflation is the democrats got in power, and they set as their priority, spending trillions of dollars, and they could have decided to work in a bipartisan manner, and they didn't want to do that, they wanted to go on a spending binge. they had power and a lot of us, myself included, were saying if you spend these trillions of dollars. if you print money that we don't have, the result is going to be inflation, and joe biden, the white house, they laughed at it, they said there is no inflation, no real economist says there's inflation. they said it's transitory, everything they said was malarkey and then the putin price hike as

you pointed out. that's the white house's latest talking point on inflation let's be clear gasoline price also risen 48% before putin invaded ukraine the reason putin invaded ukraine is joe biden made the decision to waive sanctions on the nord stream pipeline. it had stopped putin from invading ukraine and biden instead decided to try apiecement and weakness to russia that caused the invasion but it's important to understand a huge part of the gasoline price hike has nothing to do with putin what it has to do with is the relentless war on u.s. oil and gas production domestically. and to be clear, this is what joe biden promised on the campaign trail he told the american people, if you elect me, we'll stop drilling >> it's a global market, oil, and if you were to label each

barrel and follow where it went, it could be disturbing, obviously, especially with what's happening with russia still exporting crude, we understand that. but it is a fungible market. and i'm just wondering we release from the spr. you're introducing a bill so that that particular oil can't find its way to china or north korea or russia. but does it really, isn't that sort of, will that do anything isn't that more symbolic, senator senator? because it could go somewhere, country not on the list, but that oil goes to russia or china? >> look, it is indicative of the messed-up priorities of this white house. you look at out of control gasoline prices. you look at a war in europe, the

first major land war in europe since world war ii what we ought to be doing is unleashing u.s. production the high point for u.s. production was in 2019 we producing 13 million barrels a day. we're now at about 11.5, that's down a lot and a big part of the reason is that the biden administration has waged a relentless war on u.s. oil and gas production, including halting the keystone pipeline, including shutting down new leases onshore and offshore on federal land, including the sec shutting down, and bizarrely, the biden white house combines that with joe biden urging our enemies to produce more urging venezuela to produce more, urging iran to produce more it's entirely backwards, and the strategic petroleum reserve is designed to protect this country

in a security crisis he's desperately trying to drive prices down at the pump a little bit before the election. we're at the lowest level in the strategic petroleum reserve since 1986 the largest stockpile of oil right now is china, and bizarrely, biden has been selling about a fifth of the oil from america's strategic petroleum reserve, paid for by u.s. taxpayers selling it to china. that is backwards. and it is amazing, joe you hook across the world avenue single region of the world has gotten worse because the biden administration will not stand up to our enemies, and it's almost as if they can't differentiate between our friends and enemies. they treat our friends terribly. and they treat our enemies with weakness >> when we talk back and forth with each other, you know, and a lot of it is talking points. the real issue is whether, i mean, the entire planet is trying to respond to what it

sees as a calamity and that is global warming when you've got europe on board, you've got the u.n., everybody's on board, so you can't really blame the biden administration for going along with what the entire world, at least a large part of it, thinks is essential to do. so we really should have a conversation on how quickly that transition can be made and whether efforts by the united states and this country can have any effect, given that china's not necessarily going to lower emissions to the extent that they should. we've got the paris accord and things like this but the biden administration, in trying to cut down the use of fossil fuels is just doing what the entire world is trying to do at this point, right or wrong, and we should have a discussion about whether that is feasible in a time frame of ten or 15 years instead of 40 or 50 years, but, you know, just pointing fingers and, you know,

criticizing, it doesn't get at the crux of the matter, because there's a whole group of people that say, look, if the world's going to end, you really shouldn't be arguing the trivialities of how, you know, of the price of gas, for example. >> joe, let me be clear. facts are not talking points and when you say something, when you repeat the tired language, like the world's going to end. the world's not going to end that is empty alarmism let's talk about facts what nation led the world in reducing co 2 emissions? that is the united states of america. why did the america lead the world in co 2 emissions. texas has widespread substitution of natural gas for goal in the production of electricity. the amazing thing, the zealots

in this administration are not enga engaged engaged in reason. these zealots are not interested in facts or substance. they want to destroy u.s. oil and gas production if you don't believe me, look at what joe biden said on the campaign trail, where he said we're going to shut down drilling he said he was going to do it, and he's followed through on doing it, and the amazing thing s if you look at what biden has done, it has killed jobs in the united states. it has driven prices through the roof, especially $5, $6, $7 a gallon gas, that's joe biden's fault, which the american people know but on top of that, it's hurt the environment. it's made the environment worse. >> senator, but what do you say to the price of oil in europe, for example? there's a global context for what's happening here. >> okay, so let's take the price

of oil in europe there's no doubt that europe has pursued misguided policies for a long time and are now paying the price for it, including letting themselves become dependent on russian oil and gas. but at the end of the day, the price of oil is set by supply and demand and what we've seen is demand's gone up and supply's gone down and 100% of the time that's going to drive prices upwards. the fundamental problem is that the u.s. is the world's leading super power producing oil and gas, and joe biden's administration is trying to do everything they can to hurt, to reduce that production >> so we -- do we give him credit -- i'm not taking the position that they've done everything right but oil is now off $35 from its high are you going to give, are you giving joe biden credit for that >> so, so is your prediction right now that gas prices are going to go way down because you're the only person on the planet saying that.

>> i'm not saying that they're going way down they've already gone way down contextually with where they were a couple weeks ago, a month and a half ago now, right? i'm saying who gets credit for that >> what they were, look, there's always some variation in prices, but the graph is steady, and there you go the graph is steady. joe biden gets in office, boom, it goes up you get a little bit of wiggle, but it's going up and up and up, and folksat home just ask yourself, did you like it better when gas was 2 bucks or $2.50 a gallon or do you like it now when it's $5, $6, $7 a gallon >> mnobody's going to argue that they want it to be lower >> the democrats want it to be $10 a gallon >> that's not true >> you might get a suburban. they want to you get a prius

they want it to be painful when a mom is filling up her mini van. they want to force her to sell that car that's what the radical people are saying >> the people on the ultra left and ultraright-wings of parties may have unique and aggressive views about things, including the one you just espoused, but i don't think that's what most democrats want i don't think that's what most republicans want >> andrew, let me ask you something. why do you doubt that democrats want to do what they said they wanted to do joe biden campaigned he said if you elect me, i will shut down drilling, onshore, offshore, i will shut it down. do you think he was lying? >> i don't disagree with you, sir. senator, i don't disagree that that was his stated intent, but i don't believe, and i doesn't think you brelieve either that

the intent was to make gas prices go to $10 a gallon. >> of course it was. you're a smart guy you're economist you're saying, yes, it was his intent to shut down drilling, but he didn't want prices to go up even the biden white house understands when supply drops prices go up >> it was a terrible mistake there's no question, and we talking to tom cotton earlier. the esg movement if you will has gone too far, potentially too fast it's left us in this unbelievable conundrum, given the national security issues we're now confronting with russia, ukraine and what's happening in europe and elsewhere and china, there's no question about that. but when you ask about what people's intent was, i don't think anybody, the intent in their heart was to put the economy into some kind of, you know, inflationary spiral. that's never the intent. >> you and i have common ground

there -- >> if you go far enough left, the transition, the transition to clean energy is a lot easier if you get to parity on renewable costs. >> sure, and if you go far enough there are people who don't want to believe in climate change at all. here we are. >> that's true but $5, $6, $7 oil make it is a lot easier to suctbstitute clean -- >> we're all going to come in the middle >> i talked to my friend ro khanna he castigated, this was the end of last year he castigated the oil companies for not cutting production as much as the european oil companies had cut production they're not saying that as much now. but that was the stated intention before the excrement hit the air conditioner. >> we had just a moment ago something we haven't seen a lot on squawk, which is andrew and

me agreeing. andrew said the esg movement has gone way, way too far. the esg movement is a fraud. they typically have worse business performance and they do worse on the environment but set that aside what andrew just said there is perfectly perfectly reasonable i'm glad he's saying it but ain't nobody in the white house or the treasury or commerce department saying that >> -- administrations on any side of the aisle. >> my point is the government policies from the biden administration to this day are still trying to hammer u.s. oil and gas production when i talk to people that are wanting to explore more and produce more, their problem is capital is drying up because this administration is waging a war to cut off debt financing and equity financing if you can't get debt, you can't get equity, you don't have the money for new production >> talk to your colleagues on both sides of the aisle.

i hear this is the only show you can have a discussion in a reasonable manner. >> i agree >> say it loud, say it proud good tuch you on, senator. coming up, jim cramer's tarst take on the new inflation da you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

to the new york stock exchange where jim cramer has been poring through the report by jpmorgan and morgan stanley start with mr. dimon am i reading this wrong? >> you're reading it right he's basically telling you, listen, we have to start really getting worried what will happen with the economy in a conference call he's often different from a statement, off the cuff he looks at the stock, what i

was saying is what everybody knows, the fed keeps raising, the economy is in trouble. but right now it just confirms why this stock had a nonstop loop down from 165 it was very discouraging i found -- >> any shot, though, that this is a little bit of throw the kitchen sink at it, meaning this is he's doing this and maybe trying to get ahead of things but that gives him an opportunity to move up from here or that this is going to be a drip, drip, drip situation for all the banks and next quarter we'll be talking about this all over again >> he's got to use different nomenclature there's no sense into scaring your stock down. he's scaring it down how about just saying, listen, we'll be prudent, we don't know what's going to happen, but we'll do this. to me it reads like, look, cancel buyback

buyback, by the way, ahead of the feder ratings is fine, but the context of it he seems to confirm the hurricane. you need a hurricane confirmation >> stir a little bit of morgan stanley into this cocktail this morning. >> morgan stanley is fine. this undisclosed device thing i found a little discouraging. morgan stanley seems like it's fine our stock's been going down but we bought back a lot of stock and we think our stock is cheap. that's what i want to hear i didn't get anything about stock is cheap by dimon. i was not discouraged by morgan. what did shock me is that anyone on wall street thought there was any investment banking i'm with my colleague david faber every day and we talk honestly, there's no investment banking. i don't know why anyone would think there was investment banking. these analysts are so wrong

about so many thing, andrew, i think they should donate their salaries to a really good cause, whatever they think is the right cause. >> well, most of -- >> that's how wrong they are. >> they work at the banks, makes it more surprising >> there's no investment banking. >> we will see you in just a couple of minutes. >> why where are we going >> unfortunately not, but we'll see you -- >> i have so much to conagra was -- >> you'll be talking to mary barra, the ceo of gm, that big interview nobody will want to miss this evening. ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond.

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we're approaching the top of the hour jun ppi inflation of 11.3% year over year. that was down a little bit from the highs. it got as high as 11.5% but the futures and jpmorgan is not helping and there's some pessimism around stocks, equities, the economy, inflation, but we talked to ted cruz, we've talked to tom cotton, a little bit about guns.

here we are. >> jamie dimon >> we may go to breakfast together >> we may. >> that's the way we have to do this as a country. i think we provide somewhat of a model. >> we're trying. >> we v you heard our take we'll see what happens >> join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next >> is next >> good thursday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber futures stumble here, stocks looking to revisit their july lows as jpmorgan and morgan stanley miss, core ppi is light, oil recovers a bit after fall beg low $94 today. the latest inflation number, ppi surges in june, futures down >> and jpmorgan and morgan stanley both out with earnings and missing on the top and bottom lines we'll dig through the numbers. and rising costs