>> we may go to breakfast together >> we may. >> that's the way we have to do this as a country. i think we provide somewhat of a model. >> we're trying. >> we v you heard our take we'll see what happens >> join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next >> is next >> good thursday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber futures stumble here, stocks looking to revisit their july lows as jpmorgan and morgan stanley miss, core ppi is light, oil recovers a bit after fall beg low $94 today. the latest inflation number, ppi surges in june, futures down >> and jpmorgan and morgan stanley both out with earnings and missing on the top and bottom lines we'll dig through the numbers. and rising costs hitting

intel. looking to hike prices >> misses from jpmorgan and morgan stanley you say the street should have been closer to it. >> we have to start thinking about how wrong the analysts have been on almost everything or how ignorant. we have sat here and not rung the bell >> very few things >> investment banking, you say to yourself, well, what were they thinking? how about if you take it to zero it would have been better. david, one of the things that jpmorgan i think uniquely did was confirm the hurricane thesis >> on the press call, you know, we've been listening in of course on the analyst call, and on the press call jamie dimon i think spoke more on that call than the analyst call to that point.

referring to his comments last quarter or actually during their -- >> not the actual, the analyst >> where he talked about a hurricane but not knowing the strength of the hurricane, whether it was going to be a devastating one or it was going to be milder he said i haven't changed my view at all, the risks in the future are the same. they're nearer than they were before and you already have a little bit of the bad effect in markets which you've already seen. then, again, mr. dimon going through the potential ranges, soft landing to something much harder, you can put any percentage you want on it, i've never change midview we'll be prepared to serve our clients. he's not guessing. he's talking about possibilities and probabilities, not about one certain point. >> i felt very at sea when i read it. i felt morgan stanley's was much

more cut-and-dried, somewhat positive, but jpmorgan sets the tone for this earnings season, then we are going to have the declines that we're hearing from some of these strategists, which is that we could go down very significantly. i don't think jpmorgan remits the consensus, but citi cut down for the -- let's put it this way, a lot of the analysts, strategists are looking for down 30%. >> sure. >> and jpmorgan made me feel like holy cow, it happened >> jim's referring to i think bofa today >> yes >> was it 4,500 year end she goes to 3,600 and says you could visit 3k, 3,200, somewhere in there >> i read & i said this is this new thesis we're hearing, in a recession you go down 30% from the top. that's what happens.

and we'll be in a recession. and i felt what jamie dimon basically said was listen, it's coming recession, we're not down enough 21% is not down enough now we have to start thinking about what happens if we start building in that the answer is that we're going -- >> jpmorgan is getting ready for it to a certain extent >> that's what i thought >> reserves, 24-something million, 3 billion a quarter go unless he changes the comparisons greatly. they stopped their buyback as well, jim. >> right i do think that the buyback is related to some of the regulatory issues with the fed but it stuck out as being we're stopping the buyback because things are getting bad i read as stopping the buyback because there are some tasks coming up, but it reader theably. it reader theably.

>> he's going to continue to say, of course, overcapitalized. >> 165 and 108 it's custer's last stand, man. custer was a good general. >> the stock didn't really go up on good earnings either. >> -- interest margin to expand. it will expand greatly suddenly, we don't care at all about that >> i would have led with that if i were a banker. i would have said, listen, the margin is getting better at the same time we have to boost our possible credit losses because of that. but right now, it looks like there could be a peak in inflation, the peak -- they didn't have the ppi number, but it was okay, not great, but yesterday's number was >> i'm agreeing with you. >> you are

>> and i was moving on to morgan stanley's numbers too. for me it's friday, so >> synthetic friday. >> spoiler alert >> exactly >> some times i'm, like, he's not coming in tomorrow >> synthetic friday for him. >> the point you were making, equity underwriting at morgan stanley, and they have a lot of different businesses and they tend to oversize investment banking. a billion dollars a year ago versus $148 million. >> surprised about that. >> i know. >> interest rate on morgan stanley, just to bump around, are you hearing anything about the morgan stanley interest rate on the margin line to musk for twitter? >> i know all the rates. i don't have my twitter file with me. >> we go through this every week >> i was just saying that could be the biggest -- >> it is a big spread.

at the same time, rates have still moved since then, jim, and when they fund that thing, it's not clear whether v where it will stand, whether it will be a money loser for them they widely signaled for $13 billion jim is referencing for the twitter deal back to quarter itself, guys, and you mentioned this briefly, jim, i think on "squawk box," but this $200 million expense for a specific regulatory manner, unapproved personal devices. the s.e.c. has started to crack down, apparently >> this? this thing >> yeah. i think on bankers and the like who are using personal phones for company business, therefore, there's no record somehow of what they may have been doing, can't be monitored in any way. $200 million fine. i think jpmorgan also previous hi, looking at a story, had a

similar kind of a fine related to that. interesting because it's right at the top of the release. >> morgan stanley has been mr. clean for a long time. i found this thing devastating >> you have people working from home during covid. >> that's a good oint. >> which phone is which -- that's tough i don't know >> i'm glad you brought it up because i personally was shocked. morgan stanley has done so much right in terms of regulation, carl, but $200 million unauthorized you would think -- first of all, they -- kwhoewhoever did that, f they're still working at the bank, i would find that questionable >> they may not be i am aware of some people dismissed at other banks for that, although it seems to be rather innocuous, frankly. >> innocuous >> yeah, because you simply forget, text on one phone

instead of the other >> if you came clean and said i made a mistake >> talking act buybacks, they did just commit to $20 billion multiyear. >> yes morgan stanley was good. now, my charitable trust, you can say you hack, but morgan stanley was a good number. it's very different from jpmorgan because i believe gorman is not worried about a hurricane. he doesn't even talk about a rainstorm. >> i think he feels they're prepared for whatever comes their way. he's certainly not committed to the idea there will be a hurricane. wealth management is obviously a very important component of the overall to those kinds of fluctuations >> this is where we're at a disadvantage being on the set. i want to know how e-trade is doing because robinhood is not doing that well. >> i think e-trade is going okay we'll see. we don't have the call yet we may get more information on

morgan stanley >> how did schwab get to be king >> they did buy ameritrade that helped. >> good deal >> yep moving on to inflation, ppi up 11.3% on the year after cpi jumped to highs not seen since '81. the treasury secretary jumped in ahead of the meeting in indonesia. hear what she said >> inflation in the united states remains unacceptably high and it's our administration's top economic priority to bring it down. >> a lot of page 1 stories on inflation, jim, and some discussion about how the june print did not reflect as you said yesterday, the fall in gas. tom lee said next month it will incorporate a 25% decline. could be deflationary for months >> look, i think that dominic chu made some points this morning on the 5:00 show he looked at the g.o.d. and

gold, agriculture, real estate, and they are down dramatically this spring. jimmy said that in his meeting i have been pilloried on this. could be related to golf, i don't know but what he did say is if you look at these core issues, they're down so much that it's almost impossible to me this basically isn't the peak i thought it feels so cogently argued, i think we have to stay ahead of this. >> we heard yesterday from daly, said she's most likely 75. mester kind of judged. bostick said everything is in play >> right mester was the same as greenspan. greenspan was always like jon fortt. >> john ford >> not stagecoach.

stagecoach holds up. dow down 500, nightmare on wall street >> don't let your attention get strayed. where were we? >> coming out with janet yellen -- >> mester. >> i'm saying when you listen to mester, she's doing one hand and the other. obviously the futures are signaling that this will be a major, major decline and that really it is -- the hurricane -- let's just say at the same pace. >> i want to share updates from the jpmorgan analyst call because what i read you at the top of the show was from mr. dimon's comments on the press call they did a press prior to the analyst call here's what he had to say moments ago about the consumer "in good shape, spending money,

more income, jobs are plentiful, spending 10% more than last year, almost 30 hearse plus% plus more than precovid. he says businesses are in good shape, doing fine. we've never seen business credit be better ever like in our lifetimes and there's the current environment. those are all very positive statements from time dime. >> what? >> now, the future environment not that far off, again, i'm quoting here, hopefully word for word, involves rates going up maybe more than people think because of inflation, stagflation, maybe a soft landing. i'm simply saying there's a range of potential outcomes from a soft landing to a hard landing driven by how many rates go up and effective quantitative tightening in the markets. to come back to his comments about the consumer and business, those are positive, not ne negative >> it's a jon fortt speech >> in a quickly rising rate environment and what that will

mean come even a few months from you. >> dow futures are going down. retail stocks. >> yes >> i would point out bofa cuts its 10-year yield forecast today, 3.5 to 2.75, to 2.5 end of 2023. >> so the fed will have to cut >> as they said earlier, mild recession in the second hatch, so, yes, deeper fed cuts next year >> what jay powell does not come out as the hero in this, i take heat about what i say about jay powell, so i am saying maybe incredibly nice man. i am not giving up on jay powell people have given up on jay powell the way they've given up on the washington nationals, you know >> that's a love affair that will go on forever. >> me? >> yeah. >> our viewers are well aware. >> i think he was caught up in a public health problem. i think the chinese are still

caught up in it. >> there's a war that came out of nowhere >> you're going to hang him on things like the war and the chinese covid policy >> i did not say i was >> i was in the 100 basis points camp so early people latched at me >> they laughed at you >> they're not laughing anymore. >> gershwin, they all latched, right, at christopher columbus >> died at 36. >> i know. >> did you know he had brain cancer and he said his brain smelled like burnt tires >> tragic. imagine what he could have done if we had him longer when we come back, we'll look at chips. big stories today, taiwan semi, intel reportedly planning price hikes. lots of calls -- costco, twitter, amd, ibm. >> positive, positive, positive.

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taiwan semis up helped in part by stronger demand for automotive chips nikkei says intel plans to raise prices citing rising costs taiwan semi said excess inventory probably for the rest of the year. >> i thought this was a very important call people are missing it. first of all, many analysts over there, overseas, were saying

this was a bad number. it was not a bad number. it was a really good number. second, if you remember with sanjay, he was saying, listen, he's going to cut back on production so d-ram prices start going down taiwan semi is doing that. makings it perfect don't mean you want to own asm or amat, but amd's stock got crushed because we heard intel was going to cut prices. i it turns out that story is entirely wrong intel is raising prices. you would not expect that at this point in the cycle, especially because it has to do with pcs, but i would say as opposed to the banks, every one of those reports is fabulous and a lot of them have to do with the fact these are not stocks that have fallen 21%. these are the stocks that have been -- they've had no mojo, we say, using a technical term. no mojo. >> right taiwan semi forecasting

substantial sales growth >> yes >> in the second half of the year did note that customers are reducing inventories in light of a bit of a slowdown. we've talked about that. >> yes >> still saying automotive and data center very strong. >> when you speak to the ceos of the auto companies, and i will be speaking to mary barra tonight on "mad money," ceo of general motors, they still can't get all the chips that they want but i happen to know they are so close to getting all the chips that they'll be able to run full bore they're just not there yet >> meantime -- >> wow, mary barra on "mad money" tonight >> it's a good one >> when you move here to the new york stock exchange, are the guests going to come down here or are they usually not in person anyway? >> they'll come down here, and what i will do is on monday is i'll host them you want your family here? come on down ring the closing bell. that would become the most

important moment, most important bell >> refreshments will be served and that kind of thing >> typically around 6:00 there are cocktails served anyway. >> i'll bring my wyife's drinks and give it to you >> you won't let anybody actually meet me but -- >> no. >> i was thinking about a party for lloyd fein's birthday. >> we know him well. >> trying to get david down here he has not confirmed that. i know the hiring of that google individual is signifying more -- a more broad range of fintech and vice and also crypto and david, celsius is cold it's cold, celsius, celsius being still one more crypto winter story it's incredible. >> chapter 11. we'll talk about some of the market share numbers we're

getting on coin today. >> wow >> amazing figures cramer's "mad dash" and countdown to the opening bell as futures look weak, looking to revisit pretty much the lows we've seen since the beginning of july. more "squawk on the street" in a minute you're an owner. that means that your priorities are ours too. our interactive tools and advice can help you build a future for the ones you love. that's the value of ownership.

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all right. as carl, of course, just told you we'll have a lower opening

this morning when we get started with trading 3:30 from now let's squeeze in a "mad dash." >> you know i've got my set that starts on monday here. i am trying to be slim jim but not slim jim from conagra because today conagra reported a number that with the gross margins that decreased 310 basis points, but they're going to putz through price increase, multiple price increases they'll be able to do it a couple divisions are doing well what i found most striking is the cost of chicken is 60% higher 60% higher now, i don't care. >> why is that >> well, i think the president should be asking that question chickens are not hard to grow. >> what's causing the incredible rise in chicken prices feed stock >> feed stock. but it's kind -- >> transportation costs for the birds? >> the whole shooting match. by the way, we had an upgrade

today from deutsche bank, costco happens to have its own bird thing. they do their own chickens >> yes people love them from what i hear. >> they're fantastic >> to from what i hear >> a costco rotisserie chicken is so good that now my mouth is watering right now rich ga lan ti, cfo, please send us five rotisserie chickens. there's not a lot to like right now with the conagra, but once the prices come through, it could be like clorox price increases and the stock goes up, up, up. nobody is like hershey that's pulled away hershey has pulled away. i liked the pepsico quarter but everyone says hershey has become the gold standard. >> everyone knows that >> yeah. in the food business >> it's interesting, we talked about pepsi earlier in the week. they took a lot of price the bottom was flat. conagra took 13 points for

price. good call. >> i think there is -- they did not say to me that there's trade-down, but i think you're seeing the beginning of trade-down that's why i'm not there they did not say that. but i think -- [ bell ] >> the opening bell here cnbc realtime exchange harlow capital advisers at the big board. and at the nasdaq, softbank group says the opportunity for two years, as some said this morning, i think jpmorgan, that this morning's action is what we might have expected yesterday. >> i think that's right. we ended up with the nasdaq going down .15 yesterday there's a stock david is very close to and it has been down -- it may have been the peak.

exxon at 81. where was it when oil was -- >> it was 100 bucks, wasn't it you're right we may have hit the high >> i think it was the high. >> or at least the recent high by the way, do watch it on peacock. it's going to be there forever >> promotion >> i want to pro vmote it. so much work went into it, it's a shame people don't continue to want to watch it >> any outtakes of a phony helicopter >> i don't know if there are outtakes, but as people know who have seen it, a lot of wardrobe changes. but you're right, jim. that stock has come down so has oil let's take a look at -- >> we're sitting here talking every day about inflation. in the meantime, the refinery margins are being smashed. remember the refineries were cleaning up when the president was going on and on? >> yes >> and the by the way, we are getting $3 in a lot of places.

what is the problem here >> we're below 93. >> the gloom is endless >> yesterday he cited gas refineries being a main impediment >> might see $3.99 by august, gasbuddy even jeff curry talking about our view they argue it still takes brent to 110, not as high as they're forecasting. >> i think it stays at $3.85 to $3.90 if the government would stop pumping we'll see how the president does with the pariah murderers. he didn't care for saudi arabia. why is no one talking about how oil is plummeting and instead talking about the price indices are high why does this not matter >> there seems to be a belief that oil is going to sharply rebound at some point. >> it can't.

unless china -- >> russia's war in ukraine >> russia is pumping more than ever >> i know. chinese and indians are stopping taking russian oil >> india is a great democracy that we used to have a great relationship with. what happened to that? >> i don't know. what was unexpected was the chinese and indians would take as much -- and by the way, at a discount, which is bringing them into conflict with iran and venezuela as well which typically sell their oil at a discount given all the embargoes. >> the president was saber-rattling -- i'm not a political guy but he was in israel with tough talk he was there to look at the laser. remember i told you raytheon technologies has a laser gun in the back of a truck that can shoot down anybody, better than anything in "star trek" or

anything everyone laughed but israel's got it. >> well, buffet still bought another $4 million in oxy. >> he' has an addiction to oxy he needs a 12-step intervention for oxy. >> got out of banks into energy, and that doesn't look like too bad a trade over the last year >> smart >> say et a little louder. >> that was a great trade. >> it was. buffet is still buffet yeah, he sold all those banks -- >> when you say stuff like that, i look back and say einstein, faber, butch fffet is still buft is degrom still degrom >> we'll find out. >> no longer caught up in the crypto mess, body blows on crypto this week >> now we're start og analyze. >> bought into the sector maybe

a little later than people thought in terms of energy and has benefitted from it which is worth more, three diamonds or three arrows >> by the way, a comment on coin, market shares 8 to 9 last year, 2 to 3 right now it will increase marketing costs, weigh on profitability. >> when you're as arrogant as coinbase was, sometimes you get a little just desserts you want a treat >> light syrup >> by the way -- >> did you water down the welch's grape juice? >> i told you what i grew up on -- hawaiian punch >> hawaiian punch. punching. >> you hit me before with that >> it was like 6% fruit juice. come on.

>> jim jones' is like 40% reduced. >> thankfully they didn't have that i think we have some of the sound from jamie dimon from the analyst call say again? we do? we do. okay >> it's obviously really positive because the stock is down five. >> let's listen to what mr. dimon had to say about the consumer, this during the course of jpmorgan's earnings call, the stock down almost 5% on these disappointing results. take a listen. >> the consumer right now is in great shape. even if we go into a recession, the entry net recession with less leverage in far better shape than they were in '08-09 and far better shape than they did even in 2020 and jobs are plentiful now, of course, jobs may disappear. things happen. but they're in very good shape, and, you know, obviously we have recessions its affects consumer income and credit. our credit report was prime.

>> prime, baby looking good so it's funny because we talk about how he's hurricane jamie, but at the same time he's been very positive in the state of the consumer and businesses in terms of business credit he's simply saying that in his experience when you have a rise in rates the likes that we're having right now, how rapidly, that there could be impact and that they're bracing for it. he doesn't know how strong the impact is going to be. >> what i don't understand is who thought differently and how this stock was almost at 170 in january and now it's at 106. this is jpmorgan this is not just some -- i mean, this is not -- maybe sam bankman-fried is -- no, no >> he's all over crypto. any crypto thing, he's there somehow. >> but usually, carl, and when you see this kind of sell-off, there will be some stocks that start doing well, like the

drugs, maybe the health care maintenance companies. i saw something positive but right now people are saying that jamie dimon's view is bringing down everything, and i think that's going to be unrealistic by the end of the day. not everything should go down. not everything we're in earnings period, you can't send down the drugs unless you think they'll be so hurt by the dollar i do have mary barra on tonight. people are starting to psi in a recession the autos are going to do terribly. well, don't people realize that when a stock sells at four times earnings, people don't recognize there will be a recession? at the same time, someone could say, jim, what about toll brothers but they've bottomed >> two things. one is on autos, adam jonas today cuts numbers across his universe we'll talk about that later. on home builders, barclays downgrade mohawk, say they peak to trough, single-family starts

probably down 17 when we're all done >> okay. then, again, if we're really worried about inflation, things down so much, people won't buying houses, which i think means the prices of houses come down immediately those people say but rents are not coming down. the complex comes down people stay where they want to be or they don't take the rent increase they move to something that's less desirable i think that we're seeing the beginning of a revulsion by the consumer with these price increases. but, david, that doesn't happen overnight. i think there's less credit being taken by the middle class. i think the middle class is spendingless >> the axp downgrade makes sense? >> these declines in the market are beginning to hurt people there are a lot of people who in the great retirement, great

resignation, thought their i.r.a./401(k) combination would help them through this period. i don't think their 401(k) is where they thought it was going to be. >> no. i think if you look at it, certainly if you haven't looked in a while, you're going to be a little alarmed, particularly if you have a large exposure to equities, although we've made the point, if you're in bond funds, and that's been the unique part of this period, you're also getting crushed. >> amazing >> and that's not been typical and that's also painful. so people may think they were protected somehow by having a much larger fixed income allocation then find, wait a second, what down 15% >> my lovely, fabulous wyife, lisa, you have to say that stuff -- >> of course >> -- maybe an article about me, she made me sell half of our personal savings that was in mutual funds, s&p, and we

bought, yes, david, in the last few days, the 3-year >> you brought the 3-year treasury >> for the cash. great call by her. she said, listen, i don't want to ride this market. we're getting older. what are you doing i went recently to a bat mitzvah, and someone next to me said that's a lie, that article. you didn't let your wife sell 50%. i said no, money is a partnership. money is a partnership and in the partnership she got to say a lot, and i sold 50% i didn't want to, but it turned out that my wife is prescient. >> is this a recent article or the one you're on the cover? >> the one i'm on the cover. >> that was a while ago. >> yeah, but she said it and no one believed that i would let my wife get me 50% out of stocks, but i did and so i want to thank lisa right now >> that's awesome. >> she hasn't watched the show

she really doesn't care at all but it was important >> well, in a recession, you might go to costco deutsch today ups to buy on consistent earnings. yesterday it was morgan stanley add it to their ortfolio. >> their margins i think will go higher when we had hank on, he made it clear it's a membership model and that's terrific and gives him a better opportunity to be able to make more money because the car can go up in price but he didn't want to commit to that because he thinks the american consumer could be soft but he did not throw cold water on the dipping they have done many times they are a winner a weaker economy. >> by the way, jim, we talk a lot about the consumer, but this cisco downgrade from jpmorgan today is about enterprise. >> devastating piece >> downside risk on enterprise spend. >> devastating that was a piece everybody should read. a lot of people have been feeling that the enterprise is

holding up, it's the consumer that's hurt. that piece -- my trust with cisco has been not good. but that piece basically says the weakness is extending everywhere and i always come back and say if it's extending everywhere and we're having deflation everywhere, that says there will have to be deals, why are we so worried about inflation? and the answer is that inflation again, as i said yesterday, may be peaking now, i took some heat in -- jimmy took some heat saying how is that possible the answer is if you look a at the companies, they're cutting price in order to get business maybe conagra will get the price increase through, maybe clorox's sticks, but i would say don't be so sure. don't be so sure now. >> we'll see netflix is a good example of that >> yes >> today jpmorgan says -- they report on tuesday -- their point is we're talking less about subs

and more about progress on ads after the microsoft deal yesterday and account sharing, how far are we going to get on that >> maybe they'll start to talk about free cash flow one day that would be interesting. >> that would be >> wouldn't it the ad -- you know, they've signed up microsoft now to help them deliver the ads they're also in the process, there was a "journal" story on this yesterday and i hadn't heard it earlier as well, you know, they have licensing agreements with many of the contents of buyers because they're not creating all their own content, that were only for stod, streaming video on demand, not advertising based video on demand you have to pay them more, redo those deals. they're in the process of doing that they've signed up microsoft to help them with the technology to actually deliver the ads but they are moving forward with the ad-supported tier. it will be interesting to see how that plays out again, i would come back to the

larger idea, okay, when this are they going to be generating significant amounts of free cash for longer periods of time and are we going to stop focusing on submetrics, which they may want us to do because it may not look so good and may not look good for a very long time. >> well, you're right. i'm not a fan of that. no maybe if they'd done "the boys," it would be different. >> did get an upgrade on twitter. rosenblatt, 52 we haven't talked about twitter. >> we haven't mentioned musk or twitter or tesla or -- >> or bob pisani >> twitter's stock has moved up sharply in the last couple days on the growing belief that there is going to be something that results in shareholders getting more than the current stock price based on the fact that he has a very weak case, it would appear, in terms of arguing that

he can leetchave this deal. we went into it in detail yesterday. there's been concern as well about the financing considering the deal, morgan stanley leading that indicates that financing is secure at this point there were some questions because even though the deal itself is not subject to a financing condition, if a judge were to order specific performance, there's the possibility they could still somehow back out not going to be the case >> no. >> a lot of people are reading a judgment calmed the cake deal, for lack of a better term, kkr deal, where, in fact, the same chancellor, mccormick, who's likely getsing this case, said, no, no, no, your financing cannot back out because you were the reason they were worried about it in the first place. they go together you have to do the deal. they did don't look to the financing here as a way he can get out of it. >> he can't get out of it. >> so much yet to come on twitter. >> they need an email from ed

siegle that says let's send him all the phony numbers, and that email does not exist >> by the way, we've been making this up all along. the bot accounts would have to be significantly higher. it would have to cause a material adverse effect under the merger >> there is always some email somewhere. what a jackass that guy is >> waiting to hear from musk and his legal team in response to the complaint that was filed >> are they taking his passport away >> no. >> david said the other day -- >> please don't do it. >> the public finally forgot >> don't do it >> a quick reminder -- >> i know. i'm the guy saying he must go to jail >> faber says he must go to jail >> the fact that i sit next to him contaminated me. >> yes >> i'm just kind of the -- >> don't forget, cnbc investing

club, sign up and find out more. ahead of jim's debut at the exchange on monday bond report, almost 25 basis points, 10 yooefr below 3. as we got the s&p 3,730 taking you back to about june 2nd ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world.

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dow down 521, a loss over the s&p. travel, to the extent we do have some green names, will lead you, american airlines at the top all dow stocks are read, vix i,most back to 28 today. wt 91.33 we're back in just a moment. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq,

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i'm jim cramer welcome to my world. we call my world "mad money. >> wow that was jim introducing the first episode of mad back in '05. and it's about to kick off a new era.

>> we'll be about 20 yards from here in a set that's so gorgeous, ticket thank mark kauffman and the great people from the new york stock exchange, steve pasto played an incredible role. there's so many others who have been terrific. look, the show has been -- this is my 18th year. i need the energy. this is new oxygen to me i'm very excited >> we are, too starting monday we'll be able to look at the set. >> you know, it's a -- >> see, my god, look at that that's what this show was about initially. now i'm a statesman, more in the jeffersonian -- not that guy not that guy he was a bad buy, always getting in trouble that guy is gone

gandhi, too. >> so how many toys can you bring down >> not enough. >> such a good pyramid. >> no baseball bats down here. >> that shirt is so baggy, but i have to tell you, i am so excite ed it's been a secret what it will look like. i come out doing rehearsals every night, my stage manager has been with me the whole way this is it, man, this is going to be something that even my wife is going to tune into. >> carl, he's going to be here all day long here with us. we'll never get away from him. >> i'm ringing the opening bell. the most important hour of the day. >> that's when our show is on.

>> i'm going to ring the opening bell, run down here, do a mad dash with mark >> you've long said educate and entertain. >> this is the best play to do it. >> new york stock exchange is the pinnacle it's still going to open on monday i am here and then there now, david, just one point i have maraeeeay -- mary barra >> i did have a big documentary available on peacock by the way, what happened to the market bottom on the 13th? >> that was my daughter's birthday >> oh. >> we have more wood to chop jim, we'll see you tonight.

>> thanks, carl. thank you. we are down. don't go away. bubbles bubbles bubbles there are bubbles everywhere! as an expedia member you earn points on top of your airline miles. so you can go see even more of all the world's bubbles.

♪

good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, live on poll 9 from the new york stock exchange. the bears have the football for the moment dow is down 555, morgan stanley missing, and pronounced weakness in oil, below the 200-day for the first time since december. >> here are some movers. we'll start with netflix the company has chosen microsoft to help launch the ad-supported version of a streaming service it expects to lose as many as 2 million subscribers during the second quarter taiwan semi trying to hold on to gain boosting full-year revenue guidance

and cisco gets a downgrade over at jpmorgan it had been at overweight. the downgrade is what the firm thinking about models. leslie picker joins us with more >> it was a miss for both jpmorgan and morgan stanley. shares of both firms deeply in the red, as well as large bank peers driving down the indexes as well. jamie dimon speaking on the call a short while ago, notic that the current environment does look good, consumers are spending, jobs are plentiful, but he says it's the next six months or so that look more uncertain.

>> the future environment, which is not that far off, involves with rates going up, and maybe a soft -- it might be a soft landing. i'm simply saying there's a range of potential outcomes from a soft landing to more of a landing. the volatile markets and obviously this terrible humanitarian crisis in ukraine and the war, and the effect of that on food, oil and gas. and we should point out those things make the probability and possibility of these events different. it's not going to change how he run the company. >> they opted to build their reserving this quarter, but by a smaller amount than before i had a chance to speak with

morgan stanley's cfo, and she stressed to me the pipeline is still solid, trading revenue especially with -- the analyst call just started a few moments ago. the first question out of the gate was about macro ceo james gorman said if he could use one word to describe it, it would be "complicated" but not 2008 complicated, he added. so the banking system is still relatively healthy, guys. >> no financial crisis of the likes of 2008. leslie, you know, dimon, i can't quite figure it out. it's hard to sort of pin him down, which might be expected in an environment look this with so many cross occurrence. it's a hunt, but maybe not what's your take

>>i think the question is, is what kind the category it's unclear his tone, though, definitely was more muted in terms of, you know, compared to a month ago at the beginning of that conference talking about there won't be a hurricane. today he kind of dialed that back a little bit, and we're reading between the tea leaves, saying we're not making any material changes to our business the fact there's temporarily suspendsing their buyback, he made it clear, it's not because of any kind of macro economic concern. it's just related to the fed's stress test and what they need to do to have the appropriate levels to meet regulatory demand it doesn't appear there's any demonstrable change in his outlook, not necessarily getting worse, but maybe not necessarily getting much better, either.

>> leslie, thank you we'll look forward to more reporting as that call continues. let's bring in piper, jeff sandler. tell me what you make of the commentary >> it's been an interesting day. >> i thought it was a decent quarter. i'm a little surprised to see the amount of red on the green, given what they report ed i thik if you look back to the investor day commentary and a few weeks later, that's what we got today. sort of cautious, there's a lot of uncertainty out there, but

certainly not the hurricanes that maybe people were afraid of >> what's your take on the stress test, on the buyback no longer being in place, at least for the time being >> not a big surprise. if it goes to zero, if it goes to 120 million, it doesn't move the needle too much the way we thought they would say you're suspending the buyback, it's a statement, i guess, but it was what we were all expecting, really. >> jeff, we've seen a lot of revisions incorporating the prospect of fed rate cuts next year, does that leave to a situation where we're in an environment where net i income is peaking or not? >> yeah, it's interesting. if you look back -- although we

say it's conserve, at some point it has to stop, but at this point it hasn't stopped yet. we thought the 66 billion-plus was conservative he took it to 58 billion-plus. but we've coming to a time where it could plateau and may come down the other way at least from what we can see, even if some duties do come next year, the trajectory is still a good tailwind into next year, you know, at some point in time i think banks are concerned about credit the uncertainties there, and if things are still really good, unless we continue to get over time, so a lot more clarity needs to be provided on that >> invest banking results,

perhaps as expected, given the dearth of underwriting m&a has been going along, but obviously not at the pace of 2021 anything we can look to in terms of firms that rely on capital markets/investment advisory activity >> i did find that the revenue reported was surprising, investment banking to speak of, there's a lot of surprises there, but the question, you know, remains, clients are still edge gauged. looking forward, you know, that for the other companies reporting, you know, this would be a good trading result for citigroup, which is -- and probably relatively speaking, news for goldman sachs as well

>> you have buys on moth of these stocks what are you missing, or what is the market missing that you seek >> i mean, especially when it comes to citigroup, b of a, jpmorgan, those names are because -- scaled because of bottom line, and continue -- if the environment gets better, they're very leveraged to the economy. i think it's a good place to be. before the economic concerns and inflation started to kick in, i was much more optimistic and confident, but the large-cap banks are the place you want to be going forward. >> jeff, appreciate it thank you. >> good to be on thank. of course, the banks are dragging down the broader market s&p on pace for the fifth negative session

the treasury secretary warning that bringing down prices will be washington's top priority let's bring in citi's u.s. equity strategist scott groaner, and cheryl paye. good to see you both a lot of discussion about yesterday's print how it didn't incorporate the decline of fuel, but everything else is sticky. you agree? >> well, we're expecting that you're going to be gradually suing some relief. so the issue still becomes what's your terminal inflation expectations versus the fed's now stated goal of getting down to 2%. so what you get in return is a more aggressive fed near term, which is now expectations for 100 bips so he has a lot of wood to chop

in terms of the fed showing its motivation. >> you think the market is hungry for that earlier action some of your colleagues are taking a lyncbludgeon to their r ends. >> it's pushed up to december/january, so the market is expecting a faster fed response to have an impact more quickly to get to the other side of this. >> where are youee end >> i'm using a 4200 level. that's on fairly resill gent earnings for the second half of the year >> cheryl, i know we can get to the fix of-income side of with you. give me your take on this market from that perspective. >> in terms of the banks, and

jpmorgan this morning, there were a couple positive takeaways, in terms of higher rates clearly benefiting we saw higher guidance come out of jpmorgan. we also saw a really resilient consumer in terms of spending levels and also card acquisition>> i still think there's concern at the lower ends in terms of ability to pay, but the strength of the prime, super-prime, higher-income consumer continues to show through. credit is clearly still the question here, but nothing is showing up imminently in the data i think we got that from jpmorgan this morning as well. >> the angel oak term fins, i know you direct the investing there. is there anything pops up in

terms of the rate environment or credit quality that you think is a potential opportunity for the sfnds you run? >> absolutely. we've been focused on the fixed-income side. clearly there's a lot of earnings volatility. we feel good about the capital levels and where we are in the cycle. so we've been focused on shorter duration, low volatility, bank debt, specifically in the community bank debt sector, which has less consumer exposure, and is really a pure play so that's where we're starting to see quite attractive coupons and a lieutenant of value. >> on energy, scott, we mentioned the weak necessary we had morris on a few days ago with a continued bearish view. hoe how closely do you align

with that. >> as goes. >> announcer:, it's a good indicator of inflation it just kind of sets the stage for declining inflation expectation. so we are watching that very closely. i think what is important -- i'm going to tie it back to your earlier conversation about the banks, you know, this year the energy sector will over-earn its market cap so it could contribute 7% of earnings it becomes an issue next year. i'm going to switch back toot banks. close to 20% of the s&p earnings, so i'm really focused on the banks more from what it implies from my earnings projections. this year we went in expecting banks to be down against touch comparisons from last year you set upis going into 2023, do the banks begin to right-size.

energy we expect will lose the tailwind, but we may pick it up on the financials. >> how did tech fit in >> it's important. it becomes more rate sensitive so as inflation goes, as the fed directive goes, becomes really important. >> we see that almost on a daily basis now. >> yeah. >> remarkable how a hair trigger response the markets have. scott, cheryl, appreciate it very much. >> you bet. >> good to see you another cryptolender files for bankruptcy we'll stay on top of the sell out-of-. dow is down 575. don't go anywhere. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description.

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another day, another clippo company filing bankruptcy. this time under the circumstances celsius, filing for chapter 11 protection. our kate rooney has more kate >> hey, david. good morning this is the third major crypto company to file for bankruptcy in the latest fallout of these markets. we reported last night that celsius had started notifying state reg lators it was filing, coming a month after it froze accounts for what it says is 1.7

million customers, blaming extreme market conditions. they're saying this is the right decision for our commune and filing it has more than 100,000 creditors, including customers and lending party, and there's an unsecured loan from cayman islands. tenth and alameda research is listed as a creditor with a $12 million loan this started with luna, then the dominos filing, three arrows capital has been really at the center of this it's going through bankruptcy, defaulting on most of the loans. you've also have voyager, ftx, and, and they have exposure to three arrows this may reveal even more

counter-parties. legal experts tell me it could be years until customers see their money. the question is what will it be seen by as the court right now it looks loon ahn unsecured loan, which may mean they're entitled to nothing. back to you guys. >> kate, thank you still to come this morning, we'll talk some tesla and its ev market share slipping. we also have the price target cut. resqwkn e ua oth street" is still ahead

did you see a ufo in that cloud? nope. run! ♪ ♪ [ droning sound ] cathie wood's ark innovations trying to bounce back both tesla and roku with nice gains, but we expect some mean reversion in ark's extra jects torrie >> they benefit from the etf

structure. the dominance in the ev market may be sliding a bit, phil >> maybe the first quarter basically in line with last year, but they won't be able to hold 74% of share forever. it says it's up 99% to more than 273,000 vehicles, and they are picking up ev market share hyundai doesn't get a lot of attention, but it's quietly

picked up a share. california sells basically one of out of every three evs in this country, then florida, new york, essentially tied as the second and third, and texas coming in fourth the model y being built down there in austin is a big reason sales in texas have been shooting up. when you look at shares of tesla, keep in mind that the market share is expected to erode. it's also gaining in california and texas, and also want to talk about shares of general mothers and ev go.

they have a partnership with flying j, huge areas for people to stop and get gas, not just strucker, but as well as people driving. they'll put in ev fast chargeers at more than 2,000 of them, at 500 different locations, really trying to kickstart the idea that you can take evs -- not just gm, but evs nationwide. guys, back to you. >> phil, i want your take. >> just outside of reno, they have that really from the beginning of the giga factor,

they needed more capacity. smart move to build it there in the topeka area. we know they want to add capacity and in terms of the a.i. director leaving tesla, you know, we hear when he executives leave, and he's highly regard. >> elon musk has shown he's got a pretty good bench that he can replace peach as they leave. it doesn't mean his depar won't be physical, but artificial intelligence is a big part in the growth of the future for tesla, the departure of the ai >> you were mentioning ev charging stations as well. i would love your take or get a sense for how that is ramping up nationwide terms of the availability of them -- >> slow. >> right

but at the same time if we were to go gnats, i don't know if the grid could handle it, could it >> well, that's a separate question about whether or not the grid is ready for all the ev charging stations we need to put in the biden administration has put aside, i don't know, $12 billion for ev charging infrastructure the issue, david is more of the long-range fast charging which gm and ev go announced today you also have the super-charger network from tesla as well most people with an ev, david are charging at home what we are looking at now is the development of the public fast charging. it's going to take time to install these. you can't put them in just overnight. it's going to take time. that's really the area that will be a big emphasis in this country over the next 5 to 10 years. carl >> phil, so much on your beat. we'll talk about it more i'm sure this morning on "techcheck," especially the adam

jones note that's phil lebeau. the biggest laggard on the dow this year, now is it time to buy disney it's been cut in half in basically 12 months. we'll debate it next we're back in two. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

good morning h here's your cnbc update. the acting president of sri lanka imposed the curfew on thursday, a day after the president fled to the maldives, and then to singapore. the protest sites, however, were calm today in ukraine 17 people were

killed ukraine's national police said three missiles hit an office built and some residences, about 167 miles southwest of the capital kyiv government officials from about 40 countries met to discuss potential war crimes in ukraine. wnba star brittney griner returning to a russian court a week after she met guilty. the u.s. department has classified her as wrongly detained is expected to be questioned she faces a sentence of up to ten years in prison. david, back to you. a quick look at the marks, similar declines in the s&p and nasdaq, you see it right there of course, this despite what is significantly lower oil prices, but perhaps that's a reflect shun of a concern about a recession, and also, of course, much of the trading being

influenced, it would seemed, by disapp disappointing reports. we'll get more on the banks as the week goes along, carl. cnbc is out with a new all america survey, revealing a bearish outlook for stocks, steve. >> yeah, it's not just bearish, carl, it's the most bearish these americans have ever held on stocks in the 15-year history of the cnbc all america economic survey take a look. 55% of the 800 respondents saying now is a bad time to invest in stocks, just 27% saying it's a good time. both are records for the survey. you really have to go back to the onset of the great financial crisis all the way on your left there, to find anything comparable to america's views on the stock market some differentials there, republicans right now are more pessimistic than democrats

it was the other way around during the trump administration. those who have stock investments, a bit more optimistic than those who don't. that tends to be the case, closer in the bearish camp than they had been. this indicator follows broad market swings over time, obvious reflects the views on the economy as well. right now those views reflect a deep economic pessimism overhanging the economy that stems you from high inflation. the best investments, real estate still topping the list at 38%. gold pretty much second place as it always is stocks 19%, crypto losing some luster from our last survey. you can imagine why that's the case, just 11%, down three points savings and cash 10%, u.s. treasury bonds 8%. we've been asking this question about people's views on crypto is it an alternative to the dollar right now just 6% say it is already. 36% holding out some hope it

might be in the full future, but an solid and unchanging 40% saying it would never by maybe 18% is the big mover, that are not sure at least over time more and more people have a view on crypto it's hard to find an asset class that hasn't been caught in the downturn crypto has not been the safe haven as it was advertised, but then again, neither have bonds, guys >> steve, what has been the track record of the survey, in terms of positive on the market and what the market has done versus negative on the market. do we have any numbers on that >> yeah, i looked at it this morning, david, i don't have the chart. very coincident, so to speak when the market does well, people get optimistic about the stock market what i found fascinating, and i'm not sure what to do with this, the sentiment in the survey did not follow the market higher during the pandemic

people remained pretty pessimistic or sort of average about stocks stocks soared. what makes me think about that as an economics reporter, david, i don't know how much there is in the way of losses for people. they may not have gone in with both feet, at least according to the sentiment survey they weren't crazy wild about stocks the wade some of your friends might have been, david >> yeah, all my crazy friends. steve, thank you >> i think your sources, yes, of course >> a the lo of them are very negative right now as well. >> right now, but were they negative in time >> no. no they weren't those hedge fund guys, they never seem to get it right, except for themselves. >> maybe the folks on the street were smarter than your hedge fund guys. >> maybe, maybe, although maybe nobody knows anything. that's what i'm coming around

to, the longer i live. thank you. >> sure thing. big nygren, his firm just released some new buys, also doubled down on positions in netflix, meta, bank of america bill, i know you're not -- you're a long-term investor, we all know that. anyone who has tuned in and watch your appearances, knows that, but i'm curious about your thoughts about the current market is it more opportunity or are you concerned there's more to come >> first, thanks for having me, david. at oakmark, we try to think about everything in a five to seven-year time frame. to us, you know, the concern that's out there about a recession, inflation, the fact we're in a bear market right now, you know, we have gone back and looked, and i wrote about

this in my quarterly report. there's no evidence at all that once we know those are the economic conditions, that you can profit from it by getting out of the market. so many people act as if, because there's a recession or high inflation, that we should be getting more conservative, but it's too late. you know, the returns after we know we're in a recession, after we know we're in a high-inflation environment, if you sit it out for a couple years, the returns are just as good as at any other time. as prices get lower, it's more opportunity and we get more excited about forward returns. >> specific to, let's go to some names, disney being one of them, certainly we cover closely here. we know the company well what do you see as the opportunity there, bill, given that it's been cut in half. >> disney as a value investor, you rarely get an opportunity to buy, because everyone recognizes what a great company it is

strong park frach, the specific networks because of that, the stock usually sells at a -- but if you look at where it is today after it's been cut in half if they weren't invested so heavy ly the stock would be at 14 times expected earnings, roughly 10% or 15% discount to the market that's value sing streaming at zero with the history that disney has, that they should be one of the winners in streaming we think that would eventually be a very valuable business for them currently -- we're not paying anything for streaming, and we're getting the rest of the business at a bargain price. >> yeah, you know, you also have a position in netflix.

when it comes to streaming overall, though, bill, there is a thought among something this would never be anyway near as profitable as the capable system that some of us of a certain age grew up with, and that the business may have to change significantly. you're not a believer in that. you think disney and netflix can succeed? >> well, right, first off, i think from a consumer perspective, if you get four, five streaming services, you're probably paying less than your monthly cable bill, so the consumer is better off if you think about the infrastructure that we grew up with, david. you had a production company making a 40% margin, you had the cable network making a 40% margin, and then the cable tv company that was making a 40% margin there's plenty of room for them to have a good margin and have

profits for the ecosystem be less than they were in the cable system, the consumer to get a better value, and the streamers to z also have a return on their investment. >> bill, amazon, we're going to start to tally up some of the prime day figures. adobe implies about 9% growth. you have a new position? a lot of this is about aws, right? >> right we started our position in the first quarter, increased it in the second quarter amazon is another stock, you know, there's no question it's a great business, but it rarely is priced at a level that a value investor like oakmark can consider it. the price has been cut in half we think you're paying a fair value for either the retail business or aws, and effectively getting the other one for free >> although basically subs subsidizing the retail business, in fact, is losing money at this point, given how much they're

spending. >> where that compares to other rapidly growing on cloud-based businesses on that basis, we think aws is worth basically what all of amazon is selling for today. >> you're basically saying retail is not worth anything -- >> no, no, no -- >> my question is, is the rethat would business, you no know, if you were to separate them, retail might not make any money given how much they spend on everything that we're well aware of. >> to be clear, we're not saying retail is worthless, not even close. we're saying if you pay what's just over $100 a share for the stock, that you aren't effectively paying much of anything for retail. we think the retail business is a great business, tremendous competitive advantage, strong,

and sells at a significant discount on an enterprise value to gross market value basis, so bricks-and-mortar retailers, and they're consistently taking share. in amazon rose prices about 7%, they would have a margin typical of bricks-and-mortar retail, and we don't think their business would go away. they're making investments in low prices to further grow their competitive advantage. we think that's clearly in it is shareholders' interests. >> interesting another name that benefited greatly from the pandemic, now is well off its highs. etsy you saw opportunity there as well give us a sense as to why you think at the current price it's worth owning >> that's one of the these other names that's just gotten trashed

in the market. etsy, we think, has a very strong niche, strong opwnership in that niche in selling individually made crafts one way we think about it, etsy is selling at one of the lowest market caps to revenues of any niche retailers. if they stopped making such a heavy investment in marketing, and they only atank a margin like ebay did, which we think has an inferior mote to etsy, we think it's a much stronger -- i can't remember an interview when we talked about new investments. is this a market that's just giving you more opportunities? >> absolutely. unfortunately it gives you opportunities in some of the names we own as well

we have added to things like netflix and meta that have come down sharply, but i think any value investor kind much enjoying this period of very high volatility, where stocks are performing very differently from each other, because it does create an opportunity to restructure a portfolio, and take advantage of some some of the names in a people have effectively giving up. that's what we've done at oakmark. we've had more turnover than we typically have in a full year, because the market is just presenting that much more opportunity today. the sad thing is -- and it's the kurt of being a value investor, investors never want to give you more money when the opportunity is there. >> no, no, that opportunity only continues today as we're watching you speak. bill, always appreciate it thank you for taking the time. >> thanks for having me. speaking of opportunities, check out some of the biggest laggards on the s&p, conagra on

the down side, but a lot of energy there with the sector down more than 4%. as we look at metals and more. we'll be right back.

the streaming service plans to roll out this ad supported service, interesngakonti te the strategy behind that move and we will stay on top of the selloff as we are not getting anywhere, a moment and on walmart, we are back in two.

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welcome back, selloff mode right now again this morning but we are just offsets and lows and unlike yesterday, doesn't appear to be any effort to step up and buy a. energy is the worst performer in the s&p,

another drop in oil prices driving that, utilities and stables are leading the way higher on a relative basis. they are still down. there's also a big focus on technology, down with the market, nearly every member of the s&p is down and every sector is in the red. they are relative outperformance from chipmakers, sky works, advanced micro, among others, they are all down but better than the sect there. and a taiwan semiconductor which reported stronger-than expected results. it also raised its forecast as well for auto and the internet side of things. keep it right here, watch those stocks, squawking the street comes back after this.

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stocks, they have been down all session, right around where we are right now although the nasdaq is coming off the flow, the dominant npr on page for what would be the fifth negative session in a row. let's turn to bob dasani. >> energy, banks, industrials, these are recessionary indicators.

another big down day for energy stocks and metals, oil below its 200 day moving average, hasn't been that low for a long time. energy and metal stocks, new lows like freeport, the biggest copper producer in the world. mosaic, apa, on the weak side. new lows in two sectors, banks and industrials, all the banks are at new lows, most of the regional banks, 52-week lows on the heels of jp morgan's. industrials, a lot of new lows here, the big multinational companies, dover, illinois, this is a concern about global economic slowdown. where are we? we are two, three, 4% above the old lows we hit back in the middle of june. we are 3% above back, big cap,

same thing. three, 4% above back, the s&p text sect there you looked at, mid-june lows there, the most speculative sect others have been more stable in the last month but same situation, lows the middle of june and that's about three or 4%. the concern is, we don't have a significant buying interest on modest up dates and we have heavy volume on the days when it's down. no significant buying interest, still not a sign of a healthy market. >> i will come back to you quickly, we are just starting with the banks, we explained a great deal that this is important, not just what the numbers are but what the guidance is for so far, today, the market is not taking it well when it comes to the idea that a recession is coming. >> i thinkjamie just said

there's a lot of potential outcomes, that is the honest answer and jamie diamond also gives the best outlook. he said the outlook is open. traders are taking that to be more cautious. it's hard to argue the soft landing and the body language of the ceos, this is the earnings apocalypse where everyone says we have problems, we have to lower our earnings estimate and that is what is starting to happen. >> it's not being taken to heart by the market. that will do it for us on "squawk on the street". "tech check " starts now. good morning, welcome to "tech check", the negative data points continue higher-than- expected jobless claims, strong tpi, weak bank results, that high inflation number, netflix was looking for ad revenue, it has found its nest