there's a lot of potential outcomes, that is the honest answer and jamie diamond also gives the best outlook. he said the outlook is open. traders are taking that to be more cautious. it's hard to argue the soft landing and the body language of the ceos, this is the earnings apocalypse where everyone says we have problems, we have to lower our earnings estimate and that is what is starting to happen. >> it's not being taken to heart by the market. that will do it for us on "squawk on the street". "tech check " starts now. good morning, welcome to "tech check", the negative data points continue higher-than- expected jobless claims, strong tpi, weak bank results, that high inflation number, netflix was looking for ad revenue, it has found its newest costar,

what this partnership with microsoft means for both stocks. don't forget amazon and apple, the carnage continues, another lender filing for bankruptcy, we would talk about what comes next on this important day. new comments from governor waller on the economy. >> governor waller said 75 basis point hike in july but hold on, he says he would lean toward a larger hike if the data is stronger than expected. in this regard, one of the speakers yesterday saying everything is in play. he also said he expects the fed will impose restrict of monetary policy and he supports frontloading typing, doing more now so the fed can do less later.

he says the pace of hikes after july will depend on income data, once they get to neutral, they will follow the data to figure out how hard to go pick he does support significant moderation in the core inflation, soft landing is very plausible and cpi said there is a major-league disappointment. a 75 with an option as the guest to put it. let's start there with the fed, a broader look at the markets, all three major embassies thinking on fears of a recession expectation of higher rate. you can see the dow, s&p, nasdaq, all down. a gap between the two and 10 treasury yields live this morning and after yesterday's higher-than-expected cpi number, that is the consumer price index. today, the producer price index

confirming costs are higher than ever. we also have morgan stanley and jpmorgan, suspending buybacks and building up reserves to prepare for bad loans. those names in the green last week, the biggest flaggers on the nasdaq 100 this week. software stocks down double digits. ecommerce select door dash, a firm an open door, seeing double-digit losses as well. he kind of feel this morning like you are eating the leftovers from yesterday. we are warming up this morning. >> we just got those comments from governor waller, another serving here, you see the dow, the nasdaq more on comments, you mention the growth complex, they have really been hit hard this weekend, the prospect of another rate hike, possibly even more, it almost felt like last year's recession fears may

be easing some of those expectations for a larger hike, that is the prospect of a 75 basis point over a hike. >> you are right, tech has been responding quickly to any hope that rates come down a bit. i would argue the weakness got a kick start this week by now, by service now, and really not focused around rates by just macro weakness in europe, longer cycles, the kinds of things he talked about with jim. >> jamie diamond this morning said the consumer is in great shape but that's the next shoe to drop, a look at someone who is investing in a number of companies, kiefer boyd, former executive at paypal, linkedin

and square. what do you think is driving tech right now? you said it was giving you june 2000 vibes and that was before a bigger drop. how are you feeling right now? we are still going over 2000, not surprising, this is what happened in 2000, they raised six times from 1999 to 2000. this was completely predictable. on november 18th, i predicted the top of the market and we are just going through the process of weeding out the people who didn't believe. we haven't quite had june 2000 when all the disbelievers one away but that will happen any day. we already knew, as long as the federal reserve is raising interest rates, tech valuation have to go down, it's inevitable law of physics, i'm astounded 99 percent of people don't seem to understand. >> when you allude to june

2000, that was sort of a bear market run before and even steeper drop, when will you know that we are there and there might be some opportunity to get back in? >> when the internet bubble collapsed, it cost two phases, first in late march 2000 and permanently collapsed in june, that is when the world had changed permanently. that it took three years to escape from line change and i don't think it will be a very fast recovery, as long as inflation is going up, interest rates are going up as well, which would not necessarily be a bad idea, doesn't seem to be a lot of political will to do that. of interest rates go up, tech valuations go down, the

discounted cash flows must be divided by a different number. them number you and divide by, the number goes down. most tech companies do not make money in the short term. they try to make money five, 10, years in the future, these companies are worth 10, 20, 25% of what they used to be worth back >> i think so many people forget the.com bust wasn't a moment, it was a whole mood. it was like a period where people soured on tach and its prospects and whether the internet was overhyped. i want to talk to you about e- commerce, how do you see this inflation we are experiencing right now affecting the small business is you are trying to roll up and operate better with open store, particularly when it comes to wallet sizes and

customer acquisition? >> when you look at the actual data, consumer data hasn't shifted, you see a little bit, but fundamentally, this is a correction, if you look at market cap, it's not because shoppe of phi is missing its numbers, it's because you're dividing by a different interest rate, so we haven't seen what happens when consumers stop spending. what you might see is the interest rate flourished. then you had companies missing their metrics, missing their earnings, the combination, you're later talking about a 10% market cap compared to what you were at a year ago. there is some evidence that consumers may be a little bit nervous but there is no clear evidence that consumers are pulling back their spending at.

>> if you're watching those metrics, the savings rate is coming down, consumer credit is higher and we are starting to get some slack in the labor market. people perhaps were spending money they didn't have it now, the jobs are not necessarily as generous about paying and ours as they might've been months ago. it makes me wonder if it might be a muted q4 and some retail and others down the line might feel that. >> i agree it, it's not clear, but there's no real evidence yet they are back. consumer expenditure is decreasing, credit is getting tightened them not suggests less expenditures in the future but on the board of multiple companies where consumers are involved in commerce and transactions, there is no specific evidence yet of

consumer expenditures decreasing. >> everything we hear anecdotally continues to pile up, the push out in hiring and had, and advertising and marketing and customer acquisition, does r&d and innovation in automation take a backseat, or companies willing to have less of that for the next couple of years because they have more pressing concerns? >> one thing you can do when you're renting a high-tech company is rain and profits. this is not inexorable that you can't make money, you have to delay it. you can become profitable earlier, create free cash flow and there's a reason why the largest tech companies have been less effective in the companies that don't make money at. if your ceo, you can decide to

defer expenditures, create more free cash and get credit for the cash flow in the short term. >> i think that is what a lot of the market is thinking, you are saying investors have a lot of cash flow, have built up cash files. do you think maybe the market is too optimistic, what will this season bring? especially for the likes of apple and microsoft and amazon, do you think that could be another leg lower? it's hard to tell because of the cycle there, people believe things may be challenging, which makes them challenging. i think the service team will be a little bit white knuckled, sit back and watch. this is a macro, not a micro problem, it could be both, we are talking 2000 2003, 2005 error of 3 to 5 years of a

nuclear winter. >> they are so tied to the macro, thank you, we will talk to you soon. uncertainty about the consumer has been reflected in netflix them stock decline, ads as a way to diversify revenue. netflix is teaming up with microsoft to added subscription tear instead of other potential partners like google and comcast, interestingly, microsoft lack of its own streaming competitor, focus on privacy that are driving the steel and hastings was on the microsoft board. the president of microsoft was on netflix board. he was personally involved in this effort last month. the move is progressing with

added products and it has a chance of incremental revenue, quite a win for microsoft's ad business which is 6% of total revenue, julia, kind of interesting mix of things that netflix must have had to consider. maybe it didn't want too much infrastructure in the amazon basket and lots of other potential add providers or competitors? >> that's right, this is a very specific decision to go with the microsoft comments as they did not want to be partnering with a rival and they were really focused on the global rate. the three things netflix cited was the global reach of microsoft, the fact they say microsoft has the best privacy protections further user data which may be a little bit of a

dig at google and they also cited this idea of flexibility down the line. you have to wonder if maybe this means netflix builds out its own capabilities, maybe they will shift some of that responsibility internally. but i think there's this revelation here and going with microsoft, they are going with a partner that is a leader on programmatic ad sales, more of a competitor to google and what facebook does over at matcha. if anyone is competing for these ad dollars right now, it would be the googles and meta's of the world, they will have to invest more in the big sponsorship, big brand deals like disney would do. if you are selling a bunch of ads on disney+ or paramount plus or peacock, you are more

likely to work with brands in a similar way as you would with traditional linear television, making sure you are locking in big brands across various shows. they will have to weld out that part of it now and it will be interesting to see how long it takes them to get this product up and running, obviously a lot of pressure there to make sure they can get it happening as quickly as possible. >> they asked why would they want to take the time to build a product from scratch rather than by what's available on the market? the hidden agenda might be netflix wants microsoft to buy them. we have laura martin and need to him stirring the pot. >> i did hear from a number of sources, if the stock price continues to decline, it could be a very attractive takeover

target for any number of players, the question is which is big enough and not facing so much regulatory scrutiny. i would be remiss if i did not mention if microsoft has pending activision blizzard deal, that deal gives them exposure to ads in the game space as well because some of those blizzard assets and we know netflix will be investing continually in games. this is till way too early to think about how this ad partnership could shift into business, it's noting microsoft continued investment in games as well. >> it's really getting interesting ahead of the report coming next week extract turning to apple this morning, advertising could be the company's next big growth driver, projecting they could throw a $20 billion business by 2026.

joining us this morning, analyst, we have watched carefully how you view this company, especially as we have worked our way to the last couple of years. why now? >> thanks for having me, good morning. i think it's important to understand that privacy, which apple has been super focused on, and advertising, are not mutually at odds with each other because of the capability apple specifically has. if you look over the last couple of years, apple took a hard stance on privacy and that has had ripple effects across the tax system and now, apple is in a position where we think you can actually capture the user profile of any user and that resides on the device. the device can capture and store all the information as it pertains to a user that never goes into the cloud like it

does for social media apps but at the same time, you can beam down like 50 adds to the device in the device can self select, what is the appropriate ad to show that particular person, you can accomplish very targeted advertising with the capability apple has. at the same time, when advertisers are looking to overcome the issues with dfa. at the point in time for apple to start to monetize this. i think they could have a much more deep-seated seat in advertising where they could build something like a supplier platform as it pertains to ads and take a lot more share. so, attribution which has been a problem historically, apple is trying to solve the and these things are ot mutually exclusive. interesting point in time where apple can make an impact in a

market that has been very challenged to satisfy the needs of advertisers. >> if we agree advertising is entering a tough period, is that a headwind or a tailwind because apple might argue, we have a better argument to make even as ads become more of a discretionary purchase? >> i think it is such early days for apple, like the cumulative bad business right now is maybe 5 billion or so, which can go to 20 billion over the next few years. apple is still in its infancy, so i don't think it will slow down, it's going to impact apple disproportionally, they actually benefit from increased share. the demographics of the apple customer, when you have 1.8 billion devices held by affluent consumers, it gives the target audience advertisers

want especially for brands, for people who really care about who their audience is, what the demographics are, apple is in a unique position to do that. we will see an explosion in growth here at apple and when you think about what it means for the overall services business, these are the sort of initiatives apple will bring to the table to offset some of that, which can drive back growth in the service business versus the low double digits expected in this upcoming quarter. >> a lot of folks are saying netflix chose microsoft to partner with because they don't have a streaming platform but in 2019, netflix said we compete with fortnite more than hbo, which raises the question, streaming services, but microsoft is working so hard or trying to build up its presenc

, what's the best place of that is going to move to video games? >> looking on the app store itself, gaming is still a huge category within the app store and a lot of discovery around pretend to gaming. when you look ahead in time, we will some more of in a rvr presence which will increase the number of interaction and quality of games, what we will buy on the app store. so which market will dominate? i will say ar will become a very fast growing element, and is a very interesting market that will be another driver for apple to have unique capabilities of bringing hardware and software together. mobile would be one but a rvr

would be another in gaming intersects both of those. >> speaking of another tech giant, add business, pretty quietly but recently, sort of layout the numbers it's bringing in which are larger than many expected. where do you think amazon plays in the space and what role do they have going forward? but i can tell you from a giant tech landscape perspective, this is an incredible opportunity. you have first party data, apple has a ton of that, that is the most critical piece here. because once you have that, you have the ability to learn more whether you are billing through ai algorithms, it is apple who has all this information on device. that is the key, once you start

relying more on third-party data, screws or turn more on privacy, information sharing, tracking or not tracking, those create a lot of issues. i think the key for success is having great quality first party data, which i think apple has. >> we noticed your note on 4x, maybe we get to that next time, appreciate it very much, thank you. nasdaq coming off below, was done about 2%, now just 1%. in the midst of all that action, taiwan semiconductor, one of the few names in the green this morning, up about 7.5%. we will tell you why, next. "tech check" is just getting started .

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let's get a gut shot on taiwan posts, they raise their revenue forecast for the year, also predicting sales growth, limited downsize risk, shares are up about 1 1/3 of a percent this morning and lifting the rest of the chip space. it's relatively redder off than

the broader markets by about a half a percent. >> they are making a lot of chips in asia, the company is holding off on manufacturing plant here in the u.s. until congress passes it to $52 billion chip act, it's a push to demand and compete with companies manufacturing in asia. will there be movement on that front in dc? >> there is growing momentum on capitol hill who found a plan that would separate billions of dollars from the chip industry from a bigger package of bills focused on innovation and competition. that could show up semiconductor manufacturing right here in the u.s. at that also allow congress to pass it before the august visa even though broader legislation is stalled amid political oversight

and unrelated spending. intel and micron have been lobbying hard to find a path forward. mitch mcconnell is willing to support this narrow approach. the white house would get behind as well, so now the question is, could this land past the house? that chamber will get a classified briefing on the national security implications on the chip shortage, they got a briefing last night that appeared to help lawmakers know they needed to act soon. i will ask whether she thinks this new strategy could succeed. >> that will be a big one, we look forward to that one: 30 p.m. eastern time. picc line headed higher this morning, another crypto lender filing for bankruptcy last night. we will talk about what comes next for customers.

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here is what is happening at this hour, jpmorgan shares are down after the second letter profits disappointed wall street. it could suspend stock buybacks, high inflation and rising rates will have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road to extract more evidence of the high inflation this morning, the government index surged 11.3% in june compared to the same month last year. energy prices are responsible for 9/10 of the increase. lawyers for elon musk by

responding to the fcc about his may 17th 20 saying his deal to not by twitter due to concerns about bots on the platform. they questioned why he did not formally a tell the fcc at that time. the lawyers say he had not yet decided at that point to walk away from his $44 billion offer. meanwhile, let crypto latest filing for bankruptcy protection siding quote extreme market conditions. what this means for the industry and who could be next, it does not look like those people will have an issue getting their money back. >> it could take years, up to a decade in the industry is watching these proceedings very closely, there might be new precedents set for future cases. three hours capital once a $10

billion hedge fund is a bigger deal for institutional investors. this case plays out in the british region islands, investigators in singapore are also getting involved. then you have voyager and celsius, these ones are collecting retail deposits, the thing to watch is how companies will treats crypto. legal experts tell me they crypto is likely to be treated as an unsecured loan. in a bankruptcy court, customers drawn in by the 17% yield may be entitled to nothing. their questions if and when these companies can restructure when stress from customers has completely eroded. also implications for the exchanges, customers are acutely aware of where they are storing their crypto, exchanges are dealing with record uploads. i just wonder how many more feet there are out there perhaps with shoes to drop.

their names like gemini, crypto.com, et cetera, how many of these companies are taking on crypto deposits, perhaps lending those out and if we do get a difficult economy, could end up in a similar position to the institutions we have seen having these issues so far? that's the question, that is why three arrows in any of these proceedings will be so important because you will get the list of counterparties, the exposures on paper, i'm told by sources who are familiar with this that we have not seen the end of this, there are other counterparties out there and really big, impactful companies that would impact the industry. the other thing to watch as bait coin prizes, one reason this whole thing played out is if it falls to 15,000, 12,000, that is what you have to look

for, so this cascade affect we have seen. bit coin prizes have an important impact here. >> they are acutely aware of where their bit coin is being held. a lot would want to put it on a hard drive or something, right? yeah, if you think about an exchange that relies on customer deposits, if you're not an active trader in your holding this for the long term, people are saying if i don't own my crypto in the event of a bankruptcy, but it is a possibility, people are taking those off exchanges although it's difficult to do any have to pay fees if you sell out. people now are not trusting exchanges and want to move their crib over. we have celsius going

through bankruptcy proceedings, jpmorgan hunkering down for a potential recession, given so many failures in the space already, our related stocks are prepared for the pressures i had. our partner, lisa ellis, i mainly wonder about after we heard what we did from j.p. morgan this morning, preparing for people not to pay back loans in the future. given what's already heading crypto, are there implications more broadly because of crypto exposure? >> within the syntax space, some of the areas to watch are, well, with companies like paypal, they have about 6% of revenue directly from their lending products. these are a combination of

primarily small business loans but small businesses are essentially individual loans, so they are monitoring the risk losses in those pieces of the business and in addition, i would say, they are more heavily tied to, well, on the positive, when you asked the question about crypto, places like a paypal wallet or coin base because of the publicly listed companies, so they have to me all the fcc filings and you can see where the reserves are, are a bit safer haven. if someone who is not going to solve custody their crypto input on a hard drive, they want to put it with a third party, we will likely see movement of asset into these safer names during this downturn. >> i wonder how the individual investor should frame the risk in crypto.

and i will preface this saying crypto could go up from here, of course. if it drops another 10, 20%, there is the risk that some people want get any of their games at all depending on where it's stored and that there are, i guess risks to other elements within the financial system, as we talk about counterparty risk and contagion. >> that's right, highlighting the key points, so, for an investor, companies more on the margin like paypal or a block, crypto is only a couple percent of their revenue, it's not irrelevant to the risk of those types of names, things like overall spending levels are much more of a concern but obviously with a company like coin base, that's essential business. the risks are twofold. one is, if you are investing in

the stock, you want to monitor, if asset values in crypto go down again, that's another hit to revenues and you start to monitor cash flow. with coin base, we are monitoring cash flow, 6 billion in cash, the cash burn okay, but we are monitoring it really closely. >> with all the implosions of crypto lenders, they are facing outflows, there is less reason for an investor to hold their crypto currencies within a platform, if that becomes easier, or they decide it's worth the trouble, how does that cash burn increase? >> coin base is holding crypto, their assets are segregated and they hold them dollar for dollar.

that piece just matches up, it has asset abilities to the consumer. you can pull crypto out of the coin base wallet if you want, it doesn't affect the operational task for the business, however, that is heavily affect did by crypto trading, so how much activity you see in the market is very sensitive to that, where there expends ace is largely fixed. i would not be surprised if we see additional layoffs as we move through the crypto winter if it gets worse, like of the asset value and relatively drop, what really drives the barren level is the difference of what the revenue stream is running at. >> we will leave it there, thank you.

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stocks highs here, 100

basis points in the market may be getting ahead of itself, meantime, tesla this morning $1000 price target, stanley turns to 1150, for the entire outer space but the least of tesla's worries, we talked with phil this morning and he is back with mark, phil? >> when you take a look at tesla's market share, there are a number of people who believe i 2025, they will no longer be the market leader. we are starting to see erosion and the dominance in the u.s. market. this is data from motor intelligence first half ev sales and tesla's market share has dropped a bit from the first quarter but still, 71.4%, well ahead of monday, ford, volkswagen. look at the states where sales are strongest, no surprise they have picked up texas and california, they have two factories there and those guys are part of the dominant when it comes to rv sales.

one out of every three are sold in california . also florida, new york and texas. texas share has dropped in 29 states but keep in mind, was basically at 90 for market share, so even though it's share has dropped, it stilled doubled in sales from the first half of last year to the first half of this year. sales are going strong but you're starting to see more models and that is why you will see marketshare start to erode. how much and how quickly it falls off, that is the debate in the industry right now. >> a twitter lawsuit risk, is there any chatter among analysts that if elon musk were to lose the suit that twitter has brought, he might have to liquidate tesla shares or at least would be ordered to in the order to do it whether he ended up doing it or not might affect the shares?

>> wright, minimal discussion, is it a potential risk that is out there? yes, but it is so far removed from a media possibility that i talked with analysts and same thing, is it possible that could happen? yes. what i show my shares based on that alone? no. there are so many other things that will be taking place as it works its way through the court system. at this point, if it ties tesla shares to the twitter case, it's a little too soon to do that. >> going back to the question of market share, what about chinese rv makers, do you think they could gain traction here? like they did with volvo, do you think they might be able to make an acquisition of her hair? some of these companies have fallen so far.

>> in terms of any chinese automaker, you are dealing with whether or not they would be allowed to acquire a u.s. automaker here. in terms of sales, polestar will manufacture here in the united states but worldwide. the other chinese automakers, i get a lot of questions about neo and people will say though, when will we see those in the u.s.? we are a long ways from that happening. it may happen eventually, the automakers would like to sell vehicles here in the u.s. but i get no sense that is imminent. i think it is coming up well down the road if it happens. >> iraq, thank you. we were just talking about tax letter, another player has bounced back over the last month. lucid, of 15% since ju4tne 1h, even with those games, shares

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ceo. his toy offerings have dramatically improved profitability. now he's looking at expanding mattel's iconic work into more. >> television there alone, there are big verticals that in success can be very transformative the opportunity is not to create content in order to sell more toys this will happen but the opportunity is really to participate in the verticals and build critical businesses in these arias. some businesses are actually bigger than the toy industry. >> the first big film is the "barbie" movie he says it's shaping up to be a cultural event which they'll try to re-create with others they're looking at roadblocks

and testing. >> the idea around video games, digital experiences, is to really leverage the relationship we have with consumers this area is fast growing, and we'll know the amount of time children spend in front of screens. as to the underlying i.t., we have the opportunity to reach, engage, connect with consumers wherever they are. >> you can find my whole interview and a all the other great evolve interviews available on demand, online. they're available at cnbc.com/evolve. meanwhile, just a quick check on markets nasdaq is down, 0.7% we've got more "techcheck" after this >> announcer: cnbc evolve is

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jpm downgrades to neutral. they're taking a deceptive stance they're recommending they look into more diversified suppliers. this morning, 4190, not going to be quite what it was in the recent few weeks we'll be right back.

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100,000 items per minute during that event i got a futon frame for our 14-year-old who's now taller than i am and doesn't know his own weight and strength. >> careful there are weight restrictions on some of those things, jon. by the way, waller said you don't want to overdo it operates we'll see you at retail sales. let's get to the half. carl, thanks very much welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner, front and center she's cutting the stocks cisco gets the analyst ax. joining me for the hour today. it's good to have everybody here check the markets as we always do carl said it we're off the lows maybe on the waller comments, it