that is still near an all-time record wow. it's fascinating with so many macro implications, but who would have thought it a cup you will of years ago in the depths of the pandemic. thank you very much, our robert frank. that does it for cote the exchange," everybody "power lunch" begins right now welcome to "power lunch. i am courtney reagan in today for tyler matheson inflation fears, recession calls, bank profits squeezed our market pro this hour says there are reasons to be bullish and has a list of stocks that could be winners in this uncertain market plus, a power call who has the leverage in the twitter-musk legal battle? a top analyst is putting his money on twitter calling it a short-term buy we'll speak to him in just a few minutes. hi, kelly. >> hi, courtney. welcome. thank you. hi, everybody. the dow down 629 points at the lows we've about chopped that in half right now. still a 1% drop for the major

averages and the nasdaq down half a percent energy, once again, the worst performing sector as oil prices continue to pull back. apa, eog, halliburton among some of the hardest hit and about 5% declines here. elsewhere in tech, shares of apple turning higher midday while some of the other big tech names remain lower although microsoft now joining the green list, as well. alphabet, amazon down fractionally and the financials down much more after being pulled down by those earnings results from jp and morgan stanley. j.p. in particular, that down, and both of the stocks are trading at 52-week lows. their results amplifying the recession and slowdown fears and jpm halting buybacks and the slumping revenue let's get to leslie picker with more on the message these banks are sending. leslie >> despite the weaker-than-expected results it's a fairly mixed message that we're getting on today's earnings

on the one hand, the consumer side of the economy appears to be intact. j.p. morgan reporting credit and sales volume up 16%, deposits are up 9% and jamie dimon saying on today's call that business credit has never been better, at least in his lifetime and james gorman noted that the banking sector is much stronger than it was last time. there was a, quote, reset back in '07 and '08, but then there are other aspects of the business that show case the ripple effects of the market volatility and business confidence being shaky that we've seen recently and investment banking revenue took a slump in both firms propped up in part by trading and the c suites have been much more hesitant to sign deals and resulting in slumps that we're seeing in q2 j.p. morgan also saying today that it was temporarily suspending buybacks amid the fed's stress test results and adding to its reserves and both firms reported roughly 28%

declines in net income during q2 both firms also posting that rare miss on both the top and bottom lines each one only doing so once in the pandemic and since the pandemic began, kelly and courtney. >> is there anything, leslie that would add to the underlying consumer and business demand and sort of those underlying trends aside from capital markets and asset prices >> yeah. so interestingly, on the media call, executives from j.p. morgan did break down the difference between the discretionary spending and indiscretionary spending in light of inflation and they said that yes, they are seeing a big pickup in discretionary spending that people are going to be spending much more on gas, food in light of inflation and they're seeing big discretionary spending on trips and luxury items and things of that nature which gives them a sense that

this consumer spending trend that we're seeing from a macro picture is pretty strong when you look at what's going on under the hood, as well. >> thank you very much leslie picker. kind of the same story for a much smaller regional bank might be under the radar and tells us what's going on with the economy. shares of washington federal are trading higher after reporting record quarterly results and shares up 2% the company saw a 33% jump in earnings and margin expansion and loan growth. here to talk about their view of the economy, rates and recession is brad beardal, and good to see you again. welcome. >> kelly, good to see you. thank you. >> as someone who is more insulated from capital markets, what do you see going on with consumer and business demand >> no. it's a very different story for the giants banks and j.p. morgans of the world in our eight western states it is unbelievably strong still.

we reported 15% year over year loan growth and that's loans outstanding and demand continues to be incredibly strong and then if you think about it with what the fed did during the pandemic, bank margins were just squeezed and we were operating under record low margins and with rates going up that's a positive for banks and our margin bumped up from 2.8% to 3.2% with earnings per share. >> so many of us are trying to figure out what all of these macro economic pressures are meaning for the consumer when it boils down to how they're looking at their own home balance sheets, for instance what is the impact of inflation for you for loans? if everything is more expensive, do we need to take out higher loans or is the cost of taking out a loan more expensive and so that dampens demand? >> it does dampen demand somewhat and it all goes back to

is there recession on the horizon? i do believe that recession is likely in the next few quarters and i don't think recession is a bad thing. i think it could be a good thing. simply put, in my opinion, the economy has been too hot for too long we've gone too far too fast and i think it's a good thing and i think it would be good for consumers and we've seen record increases in home prices and if we had even home prices be down 5% or 10% that's a buying opportunity for consumers. >> do you think a recession would be good for consumers? >> i think it could be, yes. we all struggle with recession bias we think the last recession was a great recession and i don't necessarily believe that's in the cards this time. i think a recession is merely a cooling of the economy which could actually give consumers a break on crisis. >> i totally take your point, brent. the question i would have is about the labor market where people might go, all right, fine

the tradeoff is i have a job and i'm making 8% more and what happens if that changes the balance of power and people lose their jobs on top of everything else that's happened >> you know, that certainly is a risk and the question is how many people could potentially lose their jobs and our labor market being incredibly strong and resilient. most of the businesses we speak to are in search of highly motivated candidates and i don't see that as a high likelihood. your tone to me appears to be very positive and you're 105, your history of the bank and as we look forward potentially a hundred basis point rate hike on the table. what does it look for in your business if i'm an investor what should i understand about expectation going forward? >> we've worked over the last two years to become a bank where we benefit from rising interest

rates and this order showed what the fed has done in the last six months it was a benefit to the net interest margin and if the fed does continue to increase rates likewise it would be a benefit to the shareholders as well as regional banks in the western u.s., at least >> all right brent, thanks so much for your time and walking us through it today and what we heard from the big guys this morning. thank you. >> thank you >> brent beardall. given that sector and today's volatility, how should investors pick stocks? joining me with the outlook for the market and top picks mark cuccini. thanks so much for joining us today. we had disappointing results from big players and i name like wafed put up a strong quarter outside of the bank stocks themselves what did you read from what the ceos had to say about the state of the economy and how that plays into your investing thesis here >> well, i think, courtney

uniformly including the last guest you had on you heard about the stress of the consumer and that will go a long way toward a recession and looks out with the prospects of what the economy will look like and keep it relatively mild and we don't see a recessionary outcome, however, it's still plausible so while we brace for a worse outcome, we still think it will be the consumer that will come to the rescue that is in the position assuming once again we don't see further deterioration and the economic activity and the kind of job losses that kelly alluded to that would cause more severe reaction on the part of the consumer to draw back in from their spending habits that we're seeing quite strong at the moment to lead into a more severe outcome as a consequence, while equities are poised to struggle over the

first couple of months and we begin to subside and give the fed a policy campaign. lead to a year-end rally and that's something would be positioned and not allow them to be derisking in what is a difficult market and one in which perhaps opportunities are setting up for. >> so what givesious reason to believe that we will see a positive bias to the upside. what would be the catalyst to move us higher when it seems that day after day we see right across the screen for the broader indices. by and large, we have the dow jones industrial average down today. so what will move us to the down side what is the catalyst that starts to turned tide the other way >> courtney, the one thing we know is pessimism. so when conditions are so bad that it seems as though they can only get worse, it doesn't take necessarily news to go from bad to good, but rather to less bad

which might be enough to catalyze a more positive impulse back into the equity markets i do think it's going to take some time because i think the real key is going to be inflation, and if we would happen to stack a couple of months of inflation ratings that show some relief on the price hiking month that are clocking after 40-year highs that may offer some hope that the fed could offer some sort of dovish outlook by expectation or a rate hike that is less severe that likely will come later this month may already have and clktively, that would be the impetus, and revive a catalyst, but perhaps the earnings score of better than 20 twee and i multiple expansion >> that's how you see it playing out then why in particular stay bullish on energy?

>> well, i think there are some idiosynchratic characteristics that make it attractive. obviously, right now all of the concern is raging around demand destruction and that's not just oil, but across the entire commodity complex. the fact of the matter is they're still exceedingly tight and accounting for some demand destruction. i still think the space even as oil prices have come back at $100 a barrel and i think that's a place where investors given the fact that they've moved down to trim line averages should find an opportunity to nibble at if not necessarily take a bigger stake and take advantage of what i think will be prospects for higher oil prices as we move from the back end of this year >> thank you very much >> mark laschimi, thanks for your time. steve liesman, what's happening steve? >> not the fed itself, but the

federal reserve inspector general which looked at, as you remember, trades made by former vice chair richard clairida and they found out clarida did not violate the rules and the regulations. he did fail to report several trades in 2019 and 2020. he then went back and appropriately the ig says, a blended those filings and they said the trades were in broadly diversified mutual funds and that the ig was satisfied that clarida acted in good faith and these were overted errors and omissions. he issued a statement of his own saying he was gratified by the conclusion of the ig investigation and said he'd gone above and beyond on what was needed for ethics. on powell. he did not violate the training

blackout ways and there were powells played >> neither power nor his spoice had any knowledge of those they did say that the investigation of senior back official and robert clarida and eric rosenblat were fed presidents and not federal reserve governors. >> two follow-up questions, steve. first, did clarida go back and amend or explain his actions after -- i forget, was that a media report that was disclosed and secondly, as it relates to powell wasn't there a question of his trading in municipal bonds and is that the disclosure you're referencing or was that more simply a question of whether he should be able to retain that ownership once they started to backstop the muni market >> okay. so i cannot answer the first question it looks like he went back in on

may 142021 and those amendments and i can't say precisely kelly approximately i will send you a note on that as to whether that was pre-dated. it was satisfied by the amendment and he does cite a rule that does allow an amendment of these forms as to powell, you are right. he owned municipal bonds and this is not covered in here and powell himself came forward and said hey, i should not have been owning these bonds when the fed was in the process of owning them remember our reporting was that powell owned these bonds before the fed started buying them. >> right. >> and did not make a change in his portfolio in that time period this ig report does not address that those are two awesome questions. >> the initiating has been percolating for some time and maybe delayed confirmation, but had implications steve, thank you very much for

that we appreciate it steve liesman. >> coming up, in a market hammered by macro concerns twitter, appearing near-term buy and the stock is today's power call plus cigna, and costco upgraded as a standout in the growing uncertainty and conagra says demand is weakening and we're tackling the trade in today's "three stock lunch." is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

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welcome back to "power lunch. po how will twitter's courtroom drama play out twitter can win the fight and it's a change from the previous stance and results in a ratings upgrade to buy and a target of $52 a share. twitter is currently 27. senior analyst and managing director at rosenblat. barton, you have to put your legal hat on for this one. >> correct, you know, but it's interesting. i think in a market like this you'd rather be wearing a legal hat sometimes than the fundamental hat. >> fair enough what makes you think they can prevail and what does prevailing look like? >> i think what we saw in twitter's lawsuit against musk was a detailed elaboration of everything they tried to provide them in addition to the spam bot calculations and what we see is they've done a lot to show him what they do, how they calculate

it, have invited him to take a look at what they do he hasn't necessarily fully participated, but what i see there is an effort at openness and transparency that seems to belie the one hope that musk would have to get out of this deal which is that twitter was, you know, not really disclosing fairly that they essentially had to be fraudulent, and i think the level of disclosure on spam bot which was the biggest objections are kills that argument i had concerns about twitter's disclosures based on what musk had been saying and after reading what twitter says and those concerns had really e van rated and in this case the judge pushed this deal as agreed and i think that's a great near-term setup in a market when there are things that are going against you and here we have a judge going for you. >> barton, if you do believe that twitter will prevail over

musk and you're upgrading shares from hold to buy, it sounds like not only will they prevail, but at the price were you on musk at all to purchase in the first place? >> correct twitter is asking for everything, and i believe that the judge will, you know, stand with them that they deserve everything i think the cut of 3% or so would be consistent with some other contested deals that i think about tiffany and what happened in that situation and it's comparable discount to that a recent situation that, you know, i think you can look at here you know, i think that the only reason twitter would compromise a little bit is the time value of money if this gets musk to face the inevitable a little bit quicker. >> what would be the down side risk, then >> i know you modeled this out as well. >> we're sitting right now at $36 a share and we're not far from where twitter had been

trading on the trend line before elon musk had made this offer. say you don't own twitter now and you invest in the shares here what will be the down side from where we are now will the price fall further from where we sit >> i think there is a ton of risk in twitter's equity they're being damaged and they're not able to give people retention bonuses, so they have attrition, and the ad market if we go into recession is weakening. so i think that there's downside if there's no deal i do think that we're highly likely to see a deal and the unknowable and what happens if he decides to ignore a court order and that's the most unknowable thing here and all of corporate america acts as if this delaware court has power and the question is can he buck that i think they have the ability for fines and for orders, you

know, perhaps even, you know, some other kind of penalties and certainly we'll see them tested in this situation. >> it is fascinating it will be studied, i'm sure by many executives and business schools for many years to come regardless of the outcome because it has been so atypical. barton rosenblat i like your thesis we'll see what ends up happening. market volatility and the investors growing more and more worried about the recession. we'll look at three names that could crumble or climb in the market downturn. as we go to breaks, check out material stocks, one of the laggards mosaic and you in montt mining showing the biggest decline. cf around there as well and all of those nes awhamnyere from 30 to 45% off their highs we'll be right back.

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welcome back, everybody. the market is down, but let's get a look at names in the green and bucking that trend today moving higher including the likes of first republic bank, las vegas sands and qualcomm modest declines and qualcomm is up almost 4% first republic is off the highs, but another bank name that is

positive today let's get out to kate rogers for the cnbc news update kate >> here's what's happening at this hour. as the buffalo supermarket where ten black people were killed in a mass shooting two months ago prepares to re-open tomorrow a federal grand jury has just filed federal hate crime charges against the white man accused of that massacre. immigration and customs enforcement agents are now being told to take additional steps to ensure they are not unintentionally separating parents from their children at the southern border. the new procedures are the latest in a series of steps the biden administration has taken. the u.s. and israel signed a new security pact today reinforcing the common front against iran president biden pledging to use all american power to stop the islamic republic from acquiring nuclear weapons. thousands more doses of monkeypox vaccine are set to be shipping to the u.s. after federal health officials completed an inspection of the

denmark plant where they are being manufactured kelly and court, back to you >> thank you very much, kate ahead on "power lunch," it's impacting consumer spending habits and which retailers will come out winners. >> plus a seed of doubt. apple, will recession fears dent sales? after this hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera?

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welcome back 90 minutes left in what's been a rough trading session today. let's get caught up across the markets on stocks, bonds, commodities and a major spending shift. we'll start with stocks, off the lows and still under water today. bob pisani at the new york stock exchange with the latest bob? >> and we're at the highs of the day, believe it or not >> yes, the s&p 500 is 15 points under water, but a lot better than it was earlier in the day things turned around in the middle of the morning when fed governor waller came out and implied he would support 75 basis points in july he's still data dependent and the market did lift a bit on that i'll tell you two things that happened that were very interesting. the growthier part of the market was up the invesco qqq trust, the

nasdaq 100 essentially has gone positive for the day look at the tech names of the day and they were down notably, and now positive, apple, qualcomm, advanced micro, teradyne and these are the big leadership stocks in the technology group the other sector and the bottom line here is the bulls really want to buy growth in the growth stocks and they keep nibbling on the tech names the other thing that moved is there's an inflation play at the same time that's going on inflation plays andconsumer staple names and the costcos, the walmarts and the cisco, the food company cisco all moving up and they're two paralevel trades and don't kid yourselves two big sectors are at major rows where the big names are major lows and jamie dimon talking about a range of outcomes on the economy moving down and we saw citigroup,

goldman, fifth third like keycorp also at 52-week lows and the other sector are the global sector and these are the big, global industrial names because most of them get more than 50% of their revenues overseas illinois toolworks, packwell, honeywell and all are u.s. based and all are 52-week lows come this is the global slowdown and recession concerns that are manifest manifesting themselves in the u.s. stock market. >> absolutely. we'll be top of mind thanks let's turn to the bond market with the recessions and reversions, it rages rick santelli with the latest action rick >> there's a lot of different movements on the yield curve today. you have two and three-year yields down on the session price is up. look at the interim, too and you can see after the 8:30 eastern day and it gave it ground and combine that with waller's

comments and maybe it won't be under 100 and then you look at the mid part of the curve where yields are up and they're up with 5s, 7s and tens and we're still up, not a lot and we're up a couple of basis points on the session, though the most important dynamic is still up 30% and their yields are lower on the session and yesterday's 30-year bond auction underscores. we keep a lot of this pretty simple the market believes there's most likely going to be a global recession and that global recession will probably be sent to us from europe if not from our own shores and, look at december fed fund futures. yesterday their prices dropped to contract lows okay, that means more fed. today, some of that, not all of it is being taken out which goes along with waller's headlines and finally, one week of the

euro versus the dollar a third session in a row which is 100 the moving force there, mario dr draghi trying to resign. his letter of resignation not expected and he'll speak to parliament tonight, and i think italy is the new greece and the euro currency is nervous about it as it's hovering near the lowest levels in two decades kelly, back to you >> remarkable to see it in black and white or red and white, i should say thanks recession talk is definitely weighing on oil again. let's get to pippa stephens and we saw prices in the low 90s this morning, pippa. >> yeah, kelly it was a wild day for oil and at one point brent and wti traded below where they closed on february 23rd and that was the day before russia invaded ukraine and they've since recovered the majority of those losses and check out this chart at 24 hours and you can see the big dip which sent prices tumbling 6% hitting a low of

$90.56 the contract fell below its 200-day moving average before bouncing off that level and we did see similar price action in brent and we do remain sharp low lower in the month between the price action and the state of the physical market which including dan jurgen last hour remains tight and recession fears are driving this narrative, although we have also started to see some demand declines amid high prices and wti is down half of 1%, at 95.86 with brent crude down about a third of a percent back to you. >> wti still holding below $96 a barrel thank you. let's turn now to retail and a new report from deloitte shows more than half of points are hitting back to school spending. 37% of those surveys do expect to sell more, and which apparel names will get potentially the

biggest boost? susan anderson is senior retail analyst at o'reilly securities it's great to have you here. i guess first of all, do you agree with deloitte's assessment base that clothing will be a hot and in demand item going back to school >> thanks for having me. >> i think it will be because we will probably see a decline in electronics. so that's going to help the consumer a bit, but i think some of those dollars will go into other category such as apparel and apparel didn't see as much of a growth as we saw in electronics. so consumers are still trying to catch up particularly since kids do grow every year it's something that needs to be replenished. so i think they will put some of those extra dollars in new apparel and so i think it will be the bright spot of back to school this year >> that is the key, right? kids do grow regardless of the economic environment. you can't stop that from happening. speaking of that, as we are speaking about apparel more

broadly, there's been discussion with the waning athleisure trend and we want to be more dressed up and as we pertain to back to school, that could be the same thing and what winners could be or who could be in store to be a winner going back to school for apparel. >> yeah. so we are focused on those value offerings, just given the inflation pressure on the consumer and you may see consumers trade down they are looking for value in the kid space we like carter's and children's place. children's place also benefits from uniforms. while they had a great year last year i think it will be another strong year this year as even more kids are going back to school carter's is a company that offers apparel and it has a niche in the baby market, last year it up since the recession, so it adds in other areas where

we may see weaker demand in the teen area we like a & f, they view the hollister brand is a teen offering and they come in below american egoel and pacsun. they also offer more fashion versus american eagle which is very levered to denim. so while we expect them to be very strong this year, last year was a robust year for denim. so i don't think it's going to be as strong i think even teens will be looking for some fashion offerings to add to their wardrobe this year >> carter's children's place and abercrombie & fitch are the winners that you see for the back to school season. i can't help, but think about the names in potential recession like the tjx and the ross stores and i know it's not your coverage universe, but players like a poshmark or a thread up could those be denting any of the demand here at the more traditional retailers for

consumers that are very value conscious? >> yeah. so, yeah, while we don't cover the off-price retailers, it could be a destination for consumers this year because once again, we expect some trade down to be happening particularly in the low to mid-income wear and they could look to those resale sites for more value this back to school season >> all right susan, thank you very much we appreciate it today >> great thank you. >> susan anderson with f.b. riley. >> coming up, more on this market volatility. the dow jones industrial average is lower here by about 0.4%. so we've actually pulled back a little bit or improved from where we were at least in the start of the show, and, coping with cost's revealing hi are americans deal be with that

aforementioned acquisition we'll be right back opinio

. welcome back, everybody. some news on the bank of america front. the company fined by the occ and the cfpb for more than $200

million. b of a accused of unfair and deceptive practices related to the administration of the pre-paid card program to distribute unemployment benefits it partnered with state clients to identify and fight fraud throughout the pandemic. shares are still down about 2% on the session well, runaway prices are top of mind for americans. that's according to the latest cnbc all-america survey and steve liesman is back with a look at how americans are coping with the higher prices everywhere hi, steve. >> hi, court inflation is by far the number one concern of americans these days and responding to the all-america economic survey says they're taking a series of steps to make ends meet and those steps not boding well for the months ahead the cost of living is the number one concern and that's double which is a new entrant on the list abortion is 27% is the top one

or two earn concerns followed by immigration, border security, crime, jobs and unemployment which is usually higher, but now is lower on the list given the low unemployment rate. how are they coping? 65% taking a cut to the discretionary items, entertainment, movies. going to concerts and eating out. 57% reducing travel. 41%, spending less on groceries and using credit cards, 32 ahead and higher bills to pay later on many americans are not just doing one or two of these things 47% are taking four of these actions and they think that things like environmental rules should be used to ease inflation. we asked 800 respondents and should they be relaxed 42% saying yes and 42% saying no to offset higher energy bills

and a little more support for that, 32 saying yes, and the longer term danger for the economy is americans' cost saving efforts could end up lasting even if the prices go down even if they go down two or three bucks. >> if any of these companies will charge us more, their costs are not going back to where we were steve, i had a couple of questions as you went through that i was surprised that americans were cutting entertainment and travel and we're spending there. look at heathrow airport with the travel, i guess that was my first guess. was that surprising to you >> think the way to look at that, courtney is that number might have been higher if there wasn't so much pent-up demand for travel and leisure i think there was a huge demand for that

i think some people think i am going come hell or high water as well as the canceled visits to relatives and i think that's a big part of it and you see people that canceled stuff during the pandemic that didn't go and see people they love or have to see, in some cases, of course in that case they did them and there are trips to disney that they'll take and maybe they have the budget for it. it is 54% if not cutting demand. >> we have to go, but i did find it easing environmental rule, but they also upon the company on both of them. it sort of helps the consumer. >> three cs in today's three-stock lunch, cigna, conagra and costco whh llolupn icwi hd ia recession environment? "power lunch" will be right back

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welcome back, everyone time for three stock lunch today we're focused on recession risks. cona conagra lower. cigna lower and costco higher on an upgrade at deutsche bank, who says its membership model will outperform in this uncertain

environment. here to help us trade them is tom liden. let's kick things off with conagra, a lot to chew on from their earnings release. >> you're right, courtney, there is steve kind of just made the case for investors cutting back and conagra has a lot of great brands, a lot of expensive brands as they message in their earnings, costs are going up tremendously for them. supply chain issues, freight costs are forcing them to raise prices and with that you're seeing lower sales. i think we all know a lot of the brands, the chef boyardees and hunts of the world but today with inflation right around the corner, a lot of investors and purchasers around the country are going for lower priced brands i think we'll see more of that most importantly, the stock has not done anything in five years.

if it's not doing well when the markets are doing well and the economy is doing well, i think during recessionary times, it's going to be challenged. >> let's move on to cigna which is getting downgraded on recession exposures. this isn't maybe necessarily the first name that would come to mind on macro concerns but there you have it and the stock is down 3% today. >> the good thing is they recently sold a business to chubb for $5.4 billion that was a good win. they announced they're going to do a big buyback investors like that. and we're surveying advisers all the time and we can also tell from the types of etfs that they're looking at, they are looking for health care during these times and more money is moving into health care etfs and buyback etfs one in particular, these are

companies that -- for right now i'd say it's a hold, not a buy or a sell. it's really going to be important when they get over the sale that they had and the purchase of new stock, what other things do they have up their sleeve they're going to be challenged. >> the final name, tom, is costco deutsche bank likes the membership model and thinks it has lasting impact in a recession, although the company said they're not looking at raising membership fees, even though it's kinda time to do so in the cycle. >> well, you're right. i don't know if you've been to a costco in a while. i was at one this past weekend it was packed. when you talk about memberships, they have a variety of different memberships as well. membership renewals continue to be at high levels and also the executive membership that's twice the gold membership is $120 but you get 2% of your purchases applied back to you. it doesn't take much to earn that back.

i think the big thing when you look at costco going forward is people during recessionary times are looking for bargains they're going to buy in bulk we're in the middle of the summer a lot of people are living off their grills that's really key and critical i think one of the fun ideas that came out of costco is they're very concerned or members are very concerned that that $1.50 hot dog and soda deal is going to stay they're signaling that it is going to stay, which is great. so between that and the pimento cheese sandwich you can get at the masters, they're the best around. >> the ceo answered that very emphatically and said, no, they're not raising the price under any circumstances of that $1.50 as well. >> same for the rotisserie chicken as well. there's a couple of loss leaders that they know are

psychologically important to keep people coming in the door. coming up, consumer confidence still waning. what does it mean for consumer tech names like apple? eshel be right back with t shar of 2% helping the market turn today

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with all those bubbles. without ever wondering if you're getting the most out of your trip. because you are. welcome back, everybody. apple shares have reversed and are higher by more than 2% as they face their first product demand test of the year. sales could give us insight about the health of the consumer, especially with inflation and recession fears

swirling steve kovach is here to discuss. what is this, the macbook air? >> i don't know if you remember where you were 14 years ago, but that was the last time apple significantly updated its macbook air. this new model, the reviews just dropped this morning, todd hazelton said it's the best computer you can buy and the reviews are just glowing this will be a real test for apple demand as recession fears mount and all these questions, apple versus the recession, who wins there are a lot of different theories going on here what we do know is when it comes to the mac line of business, this business has been screaming the entire pandemic as people are working from home and needed different kinds of computers to do their jobs and so forth but what we really need to figure out is now that we're in this possible recessionary environment, is that demand going to hold up we're getting mixed signals all over the place but the common theory we're hearing is the apple customer is wealthier than

your average customer and they might be able to hold up and keep that demand going what we're going to start looking for tomorrow, kelly, is whether or not those ship times -- how long those ship times lead out if they start stretching to four, five, six weeks then we have a problem for apple fulfilling that demand. >> naturally, of course, i bought my macbook air last year. and there we go, the best in some time. awesome. what does this mean for the iphone when we get the new model in the fall? that's when apple gets the most attention, right, come september? >> normally we wouldn't be talking about macs but since this is a hot, new product it's something we should be paying attention to as a signal for what to expect coming into fall, we're getting a lot more positive signs out of the supply chain in china that things are starting to reopen and get that iphone 14 that's expected in september out on time and so if that happens, that's a really good sign also in china, demand just keeps increasing for these expensive iphones and the iphone 14s are

expected to do well in part because china's own huawei stopped selling these premium phones, courtney. >> very interesting stuff you know we'll follow closely when we get closer to the iphone launch steve, thank you very much thank you all for joining us here on "power lunch." >> great to have you, courtney. >> thanks for having me. >> "closing bell" starts right now. fed fears and bank earnings sending the major averages lower but we are well off the worst levels of the session. in fact we are near session highs. it's been a remarkable recovery. the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen the dow is only down about 150 it was down 630 this morning at the lows of the day. the s&p 500 off a third of 1%. two groups actually in the green, technology, information technology the chips are leading. qualcomm, applied materials, analog devices and consumer staples are positive everybody else is down but a lot of these losses have been recovered. energy