Skip to main content

tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  July 15, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EDT

5:00 am
let me be direct. why would you pay more than double for teeth straightening with invisalign? with smiledirectclub, you get a doctor-directed smile you love for sixty percent less. that's a lot less. like a lot. choose smile. choose direct. ♪ smiledirectclub ♪ it is 5:00 a.m. on wall street here is your top five at 5:00. buckle up. it could be a wild day of trading with trillions, yeah, trillions of options set to expire. president biden looking to reset relationships with saudi arabia walking a political and diplomatic tightrope over a sit-down with mbs. speaking of oil, two huge o oil and gas players are coming
5:01 am
together dan brouillette is here to talk about it. and china nearly missing a second quarter contraction as the economy takes a toll and shares of pinterest popping on the word the hedge fund may have its sights set on the company. it is happening this friday, july 15th. this is "worldwide exchange. well good morning, good afternoon or good evening. as always, welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching i'm brian sullivan let's get right to it and see how the markets look on this friday we are seeing futures not doing a lot. very little change to maybe slightly higher. at least they are in the green maybe showing markets a little bit of relief. dow futures up 76. nasdaq up 42 major averages down all week
5:02 am
coming into today. the s&p 500 down 3% in just the last five days pretty much wiping out all of most of last week's gains. it could be a very volatile day of trading today it has to do with options and we will tell you more in the 5:30 half hour. checking the bond market and yields are coming down above 2.9% off that red hot inflation number keep an eye on bonds energy, oil is slightly lower off the close, but a couple of bucks above two days ago oil at $95 and change. president biden has a big meeting in saudi arabia with crown prince muhammad bin s salman we have more with helima croft in moments. and now to the american natural gas. the u.s. embassy and the german
5:03 am
government will hold a combined lng conference in berlin on tuesday, july 26th executives from a number of american gas companies have been invited and the meeting cohosted by the embassy and climate action all this as germany is desperate for american natural gas to replace volumes lost to russia and the shutdown of the nord stream 1 pipeline and it may not come back online which is next friday that will be a big market event for germany and europe and global stock markets stay tuned for more on that. let's get around the world with julianna tatelbaum in the london newsroom with a like at the early trade and key headlines happening out of europe julianna, good morning
5:04 am
>> brian, good morning we are off to a decent start after the stoxx 600 sold yesterday. we had a risk off session. recession mounting further and italy in the shpotlight the ftse mib bouncing back 1.6% today after falling 3.5% yesterday. there's a look at european bond yields 10-year treasury trading at 3.31%. we saw a move higher yesterday and widening with the italian and german bonds today with stabilization with yields coming down the situation being the president in italy rejected draghi's attempt to resign now the move forward is uncertain. it comes as a time when the situation in europe economically speaking, was precarious the european central bank
5:05 am
getting ready to raise rates next week. that is complicating the situation further and adding jitters to the european story. markets are trading higher right now, brian. >> good-looking green on the screen we like it julianna, thank you. have a good day and great weekend. let's get a check on the top headlines with contessa brewer in this morning with those good morning, contessa >> hello, brian. china's economy is facing a slowdown in the second quarter gdp growth of 0.4% from a year ago. that's lower than the 1% forecast the slowest rate of growth since the pandemic began this comes as a zero covid approach lockdown. and back at home, jay powell and richard clarida have been
5:06 am
cleared of wrongdoing of questionable trading activity. the office ruled that trades from the two from 2019 to last year did know break rules or laws inquiries from former fed officials are ongoing. shares of pinterest are surging that elliott management is taking a stake in the company. according to the wall street journal, elliott has been in talks with unspecified matters shares are down more than 40% year to date as pinterest struggles to retain users. you see up more than 14% in the early trading. elliott has previous experience getting involved with struggling social media companies in 2020, twitter reached a deal with elliott and silverlake giving the firm seats on its board and a $2 billion purchase program. we will keep an eye on that
5:07 am
today, brian. >> i'm disappointed, contessa. you didn't say the interest in pinterest. that's un-brewer-esque >> it's still early for me i need to get my first cup of coffee down and maybe i'll be sharper. >> it's not just early for you, my friend. it's early for all of us or late if you stayed up sometimes on friday, i stay up and end my day with the show why not? more fun that way. contes contessa, see you in a few minutes. >> living dangerously. >> yeah. the year of living dangerously good movie 1981 mel gibson. now this a meeting no one wants the president to take, but ultimately the one that biden knows he has to make that is going to saudi arabia and meeting with crown prince muhammad bin salman. the white house is suggesting it
5:08 am
is more about a resetting of the relationship between the u.s. and saudi arabia remember, president biden called saudi arabia a quote pariah state. the administration is highly worried about oil and gas prices and inflation. it seems obvious this meeting is about hoping the saudis will put more oil on the market to bring down gas prices. let's talk about this with helima croft of rbc capital markets and cnbc contributor and somebody who knows more about this than anybody in the world helima, thank you for getting up early for us i know the administration is trying to tamp down the oil -- it is not about oil -- it's about oil. how much about oil is this meeting, helima? >> this energy crisis is the catalyst the administration is saying it
5:09 am
is a reset it is about issues like yemen and iran and potential normalization of israel. they are taking a niflight from israel the issue is on energy i would think not just about additional barrels on the market, but they are going to need help come december when the european embargo of russian oil kicks in they need to have this game of musical barrels. it is trying to get a price cap plan worked to still send russian barrels to asia, but discounted middle eastern barrels going to europe they need barrels and barrels to move to europe to make the russian sanctions and price cap plan work. >> and that is so key. december 5th is the day the full sanctions kick in. this is going to be such a huge moment do the saudis in your analysis
5:10 am
have the extra barrels to put on the market and if they do, can they do it under the current opec agreement >> the saudis are saying they can do 12 million barrels. that is in the perspectrum do they actually want to deplete all their spare capacity right now? do they want to run down all of the shock absorbers in the oil system the saudis will be very incremental in how they bring additional barrels on the market the opec agreement extends through december they will try to find a way to do it within the current framework. they don't want to kick russia out of the rganization they want them at the head of the table. they will try to find a way to add some barrels and do it in an incremental barrel and keep the
5:11 am
gang together when it comes to opec. >> there have been reports that part of the meeting is split the relationship up, helima, between saudi arabia and russia. will they do that? can the president get saudi arabia to come more to the united states and europe and say why do you have russia in opec plus it is time to ditch them leave them over here they are the pariah state. come more to the west. >> i think they are trying to fill what they see is a growing vacuum in the region and they he are worried that russia and china are filling that vacuum. saudis have made it clear they are not kicking russia out of opec uae made it clear that russia is atop of the table. for the united states, the ask is really going to have to be look we want to show we are still a major player in the region we want to be your strategic partner and we need help when it
5:12 am
comes to energy. i don't think they will achieve a break between opec and russia at this stage. >> you know, we are showing the price of oil on the board, helima it is funny. i hear words about oil coming down it is at $96 going up, $96 was high now suddenly low opec is selling oil at $104. how much do you think the paper market, what we are showing on the board, futures contracts, and the physical market actually buying oil to use are growing apart right now? it seems like they are very different markets in some ways >> certainly what has driven down the market is concern of recession and rate hikes and concern about slowdowns in china because of no covid policy the question heis the market frm the physical standpoint looks tight. the question in the back half of
5:13 am
the year as you mentioned december 5th what are we looking at in terms of disruption from russia? we have not had imagination or russian supply disruption because of the war barrels are going to india on december 5th, we have the embargo of russian oil into europe, but we have the serious sanctions that will prevent european insurance companies and uk companies from underwriting insurance contracts. it means those barrels will not easily move to asia either we could look at more serious russian supply disruption. and that is where the price cap plan comes in. officials in washington are saying if they don't get the price cap plan to work, sanctions are still going to kick in. we could have serious supply disruption out of russia >> i know we got to go, helima. when the sanctions kick in and the russian pump, we have huge amounts of oil on the market or
5:14 am
do they stop producing and we have a shortage? what is the outcome? >> this is where the price cap plan is important to the administration if russia cannot sell to europe and insurance sanctions and shipping sanctions kick in, it will be hard for russia to move the barrels to asia. you could look at a multimillion barrel hole in the market. that's why the administration wants the barrels moving to asia >> they may need the price cap because you can make the argument for $150 oil because everybody is competing for the same barrels it is getting tighter than we thought. helima croft, as always, thank you. >> thank you for having me >> always. you know that. all right. still so much ahead this hour. former energy secretary dan brouillette on the deal between two oil and gas players and what
5:15 am
it may mean for the europe energy crisis and then america's push for oil independence. how debt default fears are growing. we'll show you that. and bank results as a dismal start from jpmorgan chase. we dive into the sector and see if there are signs of hope out there. we have more to do ab cfee. it's 5:15. we are back on "wex" after this. (vo) for real, fran. $30 bucks. (fran) nice! (vo) keep your phone and we'll help you cover the cost to switch. (ned) easy peasy. (vo) just $30 dollars a line. only from verizon. you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those.
5:16 am
but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
5:17 am
wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network, with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there. and it's never too late to join them. get unlimited data with 5g included for just $30 a line per month when you get 4 lines. switch to xfinity mobile today.
5:18 am
welcome back good friday morning. let us talk stocks it has been another rough few days we're down to the s&p and dow five days in a row we have wiped out all last week's gains the nasdaq, by the way, down more than 3% just since monday let's talk about where we may go from here. joining us is apex financial president lee baker. lee, good to have you back on the program. happy friday, my friend. last week, what a head fake. markets rose people talking about is the bottom in? clearly it was not i'm not going to ask you where the bottom is. nobody knows do you see a catalyst about what may signal a bottom, lee is there something macro that you are looking forward to know this is about as bad as it gets.
5:19 am
>> we are looking at all sorts of things. there is no magic indicator that says this is the bottom. we've had a very rough first half to the year bear markets what we've got right now still seems to indicate that things might not get a heck of a lot worse. we saw the numbers from amazon, brian, yesterday huge sales the biggest ever that leads me to believe the american consumer is in still pretty good shape. don't know that we're at a bottom i don't think things are terribly bad >> listen, it's friday i like to call it opportunity friday let's be optimistic. if you are going to be opti optimistic, i would say this why not, lee, at this hour
5:20 am
jpmorgan chase's numbers and guidance were miserable. not a lot positive in the numbers. yet, the market fell, but not by much the dow wasn't down 1,000. do you take some hope maybe in that >> i absolutely do the fact that you can have a lot of these sort of bad things come out and not have the markets overreact, i think is a good sign you know, i'm optimistic when we look at the data when you have six months down, historically, you know, markets go up 17% on average the following six months there's some hope there. boa did change direction and that would indicate 5% down from where we were earlier in the week there is optimism. in general, we don't see continued downward movement this long as least as far as the
5:21 am
first six months which were rough to begin with. >> what is it to you, lee, the next big catalyst? is it europe crisis? the fed? inflation? jobs numbers what will turn this thing around ultimately >> i think if i'm going to make a bet, i'm going to make the twin bet on inflation and the fed. you know, we're seeing the various fed presidents come out and are we going to get a 75 late near or is it 100 bips latn the month? what can they do to tamp down inflation? i think the odds the federal reserve get to the 2% target soon are frankly slim. i don't want to say slim-to-none, but i think it is a skinny chance that is able to happen i'm looking at what happens with
5:22 am
the fed and their battle, if you will, in the arm wrestling contest they have going on, with inflation. >> yeah. i'm in that camp with you. there's a lot of ifs and a lot of buts and hope out there and maybe hope is not a got. lee baker, thank you have a good day and great weekend. >> thank you >> take care still on deck, potential major blow to president biden's domestic agenda as one top lawmaker looks to pull the plug on climate and tax talks stick around but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network.
5:23 am
from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.
5:24 am
hybrid work is here. it's there. it's everywhere. but for someone to be able to work from here, there has to be someone here making sure everything is safe. secure. consistent. so log in from here. or here. assured that someone is here ready to fix anything. anytime. anywhere. even here. that's because nobody... and i mean nobody... makes hybrid work, work better. ♪ in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities.
5:25 am
it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there. inside the world of business and money for a moment and get a check on the key headlines this friday morning frances rivera is in new york with those good morning, frances. >> good morning, brian there are new developments this morning in the january 6th investigation. according to a letter obtained by nbc news, the secret service erased messages from january 6th, 2021 and the previous day the inspector general said the messages were deleted after requested as part of the investigation into the attack on the capitol. the secret service issued a statement the insinuation they were deleted is false. before any inspection was
5:26 am
opened, they reset the mobile phones as factory settings. one week after pleading guilty to drug charges, brittney griner was back in the russian court. some teammates appealed as character witnesses. the team's director said she played a big role in the club and russian basketball. the spacex capsule is headed to the international space station. the 25th commercial mission to the iss. the rocket blasted off carrying 6,000 pounds of supplies and equipment. it is expected to dock at the station tomorrow for a friday, brian, you are up to date with the news headlines. back to you. >> i love all the space stuff. it brings everybody together a non-partisan issue space travel the telescope we talked about the other day, frances more space stories, right?
5:27 am
>> they will keep coming the way we're going. >> all right i think i speak for everybody, frances, when i say live long and prosper. thank you. such a dork. still on deck, former energy secretary dan brouillette is standing by to talk about the major deal with the two u.s. oil and gas players. what it could mean for us and what it may mean for europe. if yyou haven't already, follow our podcast on all of the podcasting platforms check it out it's a good show i'm told. we're back right after this.
5:28 am
5:29 am
wanna help kids get their homework done? well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. with xfinity internet, you get advanced security that helps protect you at home and on the go. you feel so safe, it's as if... i don't know... evander holyfield has your back. i wouldn't click on that. hey, thanks! we got a muffin for ed! all right! you don't need those calories. can we at least split it? nope. advanced security that helps protect your devices in and out of the home.
5:30 am
i mean, can i have a bite? only from xfinity. nah. unbeatable internet. made to do anything so you can do anything. it could be a bumpy ride to a rocky trading week with more than $1 trillion of options set to expire. futures are higher ahead of the open. a major deal in the american energy sector. former secretary of energy dan brouillette is a key player in the deal he is here to talk about it. and amazon reportedly looking to turn down the heat from regulators by potentially pulling the plug on the private label arm. we'll tell you about that on friday, july 15th. this is "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome or welcome back. good friday morning.
5:31 am
hope you are having a great start or finish if you are watching from asia hi, have a cocktail from us. it is 5:30 a.m. here on the east coast of the united states let's get to your markets and money. markets in the green we are up. not a lot. dow futures up 90. after this week, can get things are calm right now. it could get volatile because it is a huge options expiration day. per goldman sachs, about 1$1.9 trillion of options are set to expire today that includes 955 s&p contracts and 395 billion and other stuff. nearly 2 trillion in the no notional value of options set to expire today it is calm right now
5:32 am
i'm not saying it could be, but it could be a volatile day for the equity markets it has been a volatile year. most of the volatility has been on the down side bonds yields are not moving. above 2.9% yields back to the level they were in late april the bond market has not moved, hard to believe, it has not moved in three months. oil has moved and moved down oil right now is higher. that's off the close $95. brent crude at $99.69. as we talked about yesterday, opec is selling oil at $104 a barrel what you see on the screen, the paper contracts, and physical market, are very different things right now all of this as president biden is in saudi arabia as part of the bid to reset relationships with the saudis after calling them a pariah state on the
5:33 am
campaign trail now he is trying to get more oil on the global markets. oil and gas is a huge issue for inflation and huge issue for the biden administration and the upcoming midterms. the price of energy and fall of euro is causing ripple effects beyond inflation i want to show you this. remember credit default swaps in '08 and '09 and 2011 and greece? credit default is the insurance on sovereign debt. if they go up, it means the risk that people are placing on markets, like italy, not paying on sovereign debt, is going up you can see or hear if you listen to the podcast, it's going higher what does that mean? it means the financial markets
5:34 am
are seeing more risk in italy's government debt. we're showing you italy. we can show you greece it is up as well these are not crisis levels just yet. it is something to keep an eye on credit default swaps for sovereign debt in italy, greece and germany and others they are on the rise once again. history may not always repeat itself, but it does rhyme. let's get a check of the other top headlines once again with our friend contessa brewer hi, brian. good morning west virginia senator joe manchin is ready to derail the agenda on climate and taxes. manchin is a pivotal vote in the democrats effort to pass a bill. manchin, a democrat, has told leaders he will not support the
5:35 am
provisions in the new spending measure. he is committed to a filibuster proof bill that tackles drug pricing and a two-year extension of affordable care act subsidies. this throws a wrench in negotiations with manchin and senate majority leader chuck schumer on the climate and tax provisions. cryptocurrency's celsius owes users 4$4.7 billion according to dock uuments from bankruptcy proceedings this makes up the vast majority of the $5.5 billion in lia liabilities. the ceo says celsius will deal with the shortfall by using newly minted bitcoin from the mining facility and selling assets and seeking third-party investments. amazon is reducing its selection of private label items according to the wall street journal. the move to scale back offerings
5:36 am
of the company's brands due to disappointing sales for the items, but amazon has held talks about possibly exiting the private label business entirely to alleviate regulatory pressure the company faced criticism from lawmakers and others that it gives advantages to its over brands over other products sold by vendors on its web site shares of amazon moved up in extended trading can you imagine the job this would be amazon has a quarter million private label products under 45 brands, according to the journal, winding all of that down seems to be a herculean task >> i have no idea how to do that you go on to buy something and we recommend amazon basic. you need a charger buy the amazon basic >> i think that's part of what
5:37 am
is giving the regulators pause for concern. >> contessa, is that real brick or fake brick like tv wall >> 200 years old >> 200 almost as old as i feel right now at this hour contessa brewer. thank you. >> yeah. bye. >> don't blame me. i voted for john tyler thank you. a huge deal in american oil and gas an annnounced yesterday. conoco phillips buying the lng fac facility s facility slated in construction for 2025 it will lock in a supply deal for conoco phillips. this is all to do with the american gas industry to build up production and export infrastructure to fill the growing supply gap dan brouillette is the president
5:38 am
of said infrastructure deal and key architect and recently served as the secretary of energy pleasure to have you on. secretary brouillette, thank you for coming on cnbc and getting up early for us. what does the deal with sempra and conoco phillips mean? why do it? >> thank you, brian. this is an exciting opportunity for america and for our two countries to build what could potentially be one of the largest if not the largest lng export facility in the western hemisphere it cannot be overstated given the situation in europe and desire to divorce from russian gas. for us in america and others to fill that gap, we must build this type of infrastructure and this particular arrangement to allow us to begin the conversation with conocophillips to reach agreement to build the fa st.cility to have capacity oe
5:39 am
first two trains of approximately 13 million tons of gas to flow through the first two trains which we call phase one and it comes from the supplier like conocophillips it has a long history in the natural gas world and frankly, a long history in the lng business conocophillips, for those unaware, produced the first lng cargo to asia in the late '60s and '70s sempra has a place in the marketplace to build the facilities we are excited about the possibility. >> dan, i'll ask you this. is this lng slated for asia or europe >> well, you know, brian, the way this works, u.s. lng doesn't come with destination clauses. we don't know where it will end up in the marketplace.
5:40 am
it is the people who take the gas from the facility once on the open market and decide where it goes. we anticipate much of the gas will end up in europe just given the strokng demand and desire t divorce from russian gas and vladimir putin >> let's talk more about that, mr. secretary. i want to put your former hat on as energy secretary. we see what is going on. nord stream pipeline is slated for maintenance and slated to cam back online next week. what is the europe gas situation right now and what happens if the nord stream i 1 pipeline is not resumed or resumed at far diminished capacity? >> the immediate impact is less gas going into storages in germany and france
5:41 am
less gas going to other parts of europe that is an immediate concern as we move into the winter months you know, if this is a persistent slowdown or slowdown continues into the winter time, europeans will have hard choices to make. decisions will be between keeping the lights on and keeping the heat on. one or the other they will not have enough gas for both that is a challenge for policymakers a hard decision for consumers as well >> it is it seems sort of like we're coming to the game of chicken between europe, u.s. and vladimir putin those full sanctions kick in on december 5th i imagine the russians are not happy about that now they have this pipeline offline. ultimately, mr. secretary, how do you see he this playing out what is the end game
5:42 am
where is the relief? is it u.s. lng >> i think it might be it is certainly part of the answer no question about that brian, that's why we're excited about the opportunity to work with conoco on a gas supply. we'll talk more about that later. in the near term, you know, mr. putin has opened what is in effect a two-prong war he has a war in yeukraine and economic war imposing on the european continent and you could extent it to other parts of the world. it is a two-prong war. i don't see this ending in the near future. it will be important for the united states and world and g7 nations just met and to come together and end the process of the war in ukraine that will find economic nor nal normal ty. we will continue to build in texas. this facility is capable with 13
5:43 am
trillion tons. the contract is to begin negotiations on the first 5 million tons with conoco we worked deal was german utilities for 2 million tons working with the europeans to ensure they have a safe and secure and reliable source of gas. >> how much, quickly, how much of that gap can we fill? >> we can fill a large portion of it, but we will not fill the amount that they are dependent upon what comes through the nord stream pipeline is 40 bcm comes through the pipeline very difficult to replace that in the near term >> but we are working and trying race against time and resources to get that done the deal with sempra and conocophillips dan brouillette, we appreciate you getting up early and coming
5:44 am
on the program thank you very much. i appreciate it. >> thank you, brian. >> thank you on deck, gearing up for more big bank earnings. are weak numbers from jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley a sign of trouble in the sector what it means for your money and the markets when "worldwide exchange" returns.
5:45 am
5:46 am
welcome or welcome back. earnings season rolling on
5:47 am
big banks. citigroup and wells fargo reporting before the bell. investors hoping for better results after numbers from jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley worse than expected declines and second quarter numbers and dividends and profits are a concern. let's bring in jestephen biggar i feel like jpmorgan chase's numbers were like a punch in the gut. it woke everybody up what are you expecting today and going forward with the big banks? >> good morning, brian yeah, you know, i would characterize it different. this was 4% on consensus not a terrible miss. virtually all was investment banking which we aknew would be weak we saw $56 billion to $58 billion on income side
5:48 am
that bodes well for the regional bank earnings in particular that the fed will help that interest income for the regional banks. i think that is a good situation going forward. >> how much of a difference -- we like to use the term, stephen, banks it's like saying animals there are giraffes and sharks. they are both animals, but different things regional banks are not trading currency, commodities, crypto. whatever how different are the jpmorgan chase and goldmans of the world are different from the super region regionals? >> in the case of jpmorgan chase, that net interest income is 45% of total revenue. everything else is non-interest income that is a lower portion than for
5:49 am
regional banks even citi at 55% regional banks higher in cases you have to look at the income and revenue distribution streams and know the big tailwind of higher interest rate is a benefit. >> help us make some oney, stephen. >> the regionals over the investment banks it is hard to see an easy case for a revival in the third quarter or this year in investment banking you need a lot of things to come into the fray and more confidence in the economy to get the inflation issue out of the way and ceo confidence so, you know, i would side toward the banks with the tailwind wells fargo is one of them pretty interest sensitive type of bank.
5:50 am
pnc. u.s. bancorp there's all buys and names we expect to ride through the benefit from the tailwind of interest rates we haven't talked about credit quality. that is obviously a big factor if you look at jpmorgan chase, they had $1.1 billion of loss provisions that was in line with the consensus. not a lot of concerns right now. they talked about the consumer and the condition of the consumer and not seeing a lot of strain yet other than the low income levels. we're in a good spot here and it's going to be hard for the fed to do that soft landing, of course, and there could be more stress on the consumer we think provisions will stay reas reasonable >> good. maybe a little bit of a silver lining there right now, the consumer looks like they're holding up just a bit. good news. we like good news.
5:51 am
c stephen, pleasure to have you on on the program. we're not done jeff kilburg is here to layout today's trade and where we're going and why he says oil has dipped back below 100 will not last dow futures are up we're back after this. (vo) introducing welcome unlimited from verizon. at our best price ever. just $30 per line. (fran) for real? (vo) for real, fran. $30 bucks. (fran) nice! (vo) keep your phone and we'll help you cover the cost to switch. (ned) easy peasy. (vo) just $30 dollars a line. only from verizon.
5:52 am
♪♪ giorgio, look! the peanut butter box is here. ralph, that's the chewy pharmacy box with our flea and tick meds. it's not peanut butter. ♪ the peanut butter box is here ♪ i'm out. pet prescriptions delivered to your door. chewy. what if you were a global energy company? with operations in scotland, technologists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely.
5:53 am
and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world. welcome back let's wrap it up big day taking shape in the markets. if you missed it, per goldman sachs, check this out. this could be the rbi if we did one. not today. $1.9 trillion of options and options value are set to expire today. nearly $1 trillion s&p 500 contracts. $400 billion in derivatives and the rest of other stuff. dow futures up right now 90 points let's bring in jeff kilburg. cnbc contributor and guy that cut his teeth in the pits of chicago in oil i want to get to oil in a bit,
5:54 am
jeff nearly $2 trillion in the value of options expiring today and the markets seem pretty calm what do you make of that >> the markets are calm, sully just like motley crue, today will kick start your heart it is interesting to see the vix. it is under 30 that is not revealing a lot of paranoia today is a fascinating day we had five down days in the s&p 500. we are poised to see what the consumer will do in retail sales and consumer sentiment last month, university of michigan, chopped up 50 as the number that is the expectation again this month it seems the bar is low. conversely, the consumer is in strength today will be a wild day you always see some type of pump fake with the options
5:55 am
expiration >> you are throwing out motley crue songs i'll raise you once bitten and twice shy. burned by the market head fake last week. what is the catalyst for the markets going forward? maybe not today. maybe not next week. what is the turn, jeff >> i think you have to realize we're in a normalization process. i don't see the deterioration process that people are claiming when you hear the word recession. what is interesting we see higher lows as we inch forward we see a lot of price discovery, if you will, as we try to get a feel for what the fed is going to do. it is interesting and no one is talking about the fed considering what rate cuts in 2023 they will be tuned in we have to understand the next move 75 is baked in i don't see the september rate hike i know the cme group is pricing that in. i know what is interesting in
5:56 am
jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley, there is no shock look at jpmorgan chase 1.5% to 3.5% were you surprised loan origination down 75% trading was up 17% and 21% resp respectively the catalyst is you have to remember volatility makes markets go down and also go up earnings are slowing as long as earnings are not disappearing, the market has the ability to go back up 3% or 4% and test the moving average. >> jeff, you are an oil guy. that's how you started >> look at oil and copper. dr. copper is giving us an idea where the market is going. we saw gdp almost negative the first time for a long sometime in chwtime in china that is due to the lockdown.
5:57 am
i think oil goes back above $100 due to the global reopening and demand and we get the bears in the recession talk to fade as we see earnings season shy. i see crude oil demand we will see what president biden and the administration can do for the supply perspective i think the demand is there. the consumer is strong it is nice in chicago to see the relief sully, that pain at the pump is a big driver of inflation. >> at the gurnee oasis jeff, have a great weekend that does it for us on "worldwide exchange" on friday i'll see you at 6:00 p.m. part of the special hosted by our friend courtney reagan "squawk box" is next see you in 11 hours. have a great day "squawk" is next .
5:58 am
to more wellness solutions every day. get more with nature's bounty. wanna help kids get their homework done? to more wellness solutions every day. well, an internet connection's a good start. but kids also need computers. and sometimes the hardest thing about homework is finding a place to do it. so why not hook community centers up with wifi? for kids like us, and all the amazing things we're gonna learn. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities.
5:59 am
6:00 am
good morning futures pointing to a higher open as stocks are going to try to snap a five-day losing streak among the tests, more bank earnings. breaking news. china economic growth slowing to .40% in the second quarter. missing estimates. a developing story president biden continues his middle east trip next stop is saudi arabia. it's friday, july 15th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on

90 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on