next good enough reason weiss, the aforementioned weiss. >> that's a great reason for me too. a great reason for me too, i like being right hey, i'm still shorting tlt. i think the yield goes above the ten-year, goes below -- >> that's enough we got to go. the pen light, that means it's time to mauveove on to joe. >> devon energy. >> i'll see you in overtime, "the exchange" is next >> welcome to "the exchange. i'm kelly evans and stocks are higher once again. the nasdaq is up 5% so far in july, so oare slowdown fears ove or is growth rallying because it's getting more scarce we'll hear from one investor who says the worst likely isn't over. and the great disney debate, it's the worst performing stock over three months, six months, 12 months. it's the worst year-to-date. is it macro, politics, the ceo we'll have a bull/bear debate. plus, earnings season is in full swing we've got another spate of big

reports on tap will ibm, johnson & johnson, and halliburton. it's all coming up in earnings exchange let's hit these market numbers come over here while we dive in. the dow was up 72% it's up a quarter percent while the s&p is up half a percent this big rally -- this rally isn't so baig, but it goes back to big gains on friday the nasdaq is leading the way today as i mentioned let's look through some of the areas where we're seeing big moves. goldman is up almost 2% today after its results. that's helping kind of sentiment more broadly, b of a clinging on to about a quarter percent gain here goldman is one of the dow leaders. boeing is in the mix as well after announcing the delta will be buying 100 of their 737 max planes ba shares are up about 1.5%. that's contributing, i don't know, 15 points to the dow, something like that. and let's not forget energy, oil rising back above $100 a barrel

today. we're at 101 on wti right now. that's a 4% pop, absolutely keep an eye on this it's kind of the nemesis of the bull story even though it certainly has energy investors breathing a sigh of relief transocean has chesapeake, 5%ish gains. the cruise lines are leavding te s&p. and crypto, those names moving to the upside as bitcoin hits its highest level in more than a month. we're at 22,000 and change coinbase seeing gains today of almost 16%, putting the stock back around $62 a share. my next guest says don't get too comfortable. another leg lower could be on the horizon for the markets. joining me now is cameron dawson, the new edge wealth cio. it's good to have you back what do you see panning out here giving away to a deeper selloff? >> well, we think that this rally can continue in the coming days it really comes from looking at how short positioning got. we can look at things like the

cftc short positioning and saw that it was as short as it was since back in the covid meltdown in 2020. so usually when everybody agrees with the short, everybody agrees that they're bearish, it really sets you up for a market rally in the opposite direction. now, we think we could get to about 4,100, but that's some pretty formidable resistance that's the 100-day moving average, which is now downward sloping, and we think that the risk is that we roll over from there because data isn't that bad yet. usually at major market lows, data gets to the point that it's so bad that it's good, and right now it's kind of middling. it started to deteriorate but really not so bad that it either warrants you being a contrarian or it warrants the fed pivoting to step up and support the markets with added liquidity, support the economy. so because of that, we think the risk is that we roll over once we hit that resistance >> all right, so all of that said, i mean, what do you say to

people who are -- we spoke on friday wabout how the second hal of the year could see a goldilocks macro setup she still thinks a recession in 2023, but what do you say to those who wonder if we're going to have a pause here to at least assess the damage, maybe we've had this nice reset, and, you know, it's a period of time where the market can do okay growth, for instance, what parts of the market, if anything, would you be in right now, or would you just stay clear of the whole thing? >> you know, we're still very much invested in the mark. we haven't taken down equity exposure in a meaningful way because we are long-term investors and we're sensitive to taxes. so because of that remaining invested is important. it's not just broad-based. we're being very focused and focusing just on the quality parts of the market. we're balanced between value and growth and really picking those leaders of quality in each of those different styles

but as we think about the rest of the year, the one good thing to note is that typically seasonality in midterm election years is really rather strong coming out of the midterm election so if we think over the next couple of months, maybe we're stuck in greater volatility because of fed continuing to tighten, because inflation remaining elevated, we do wonder once we get towards the end of the year, the better seasonality, if we could stage, you know, for a late part of the year rally that could kind of bring the overall returns for the total year higher. but the question is do we go lower before we get to that point? >> i don't know. if you think we might be getting to that ipoint, you're kind of buying -- if you think we're going to be higher at any point in the next five to ten years, you buy now. this is a gift for long-term investors, isn't it? >> it is that's where we've been really identifying different levels not just for the market overall, but for specific stocks that we want to be buyers so one of the things that we have identified as the level

around 3,500 where we would get much more aggressive at adding to positions and the rationale for that one is that that brings us back to the precovid highs. that brings us back to 2019 levels where now if we compare earnings today in 2022 versus 2019, we're 47% higher so even if we saw some kind of liquidity event, some kind of shock that brought the market lower or earnings which still really haven't been cut but need to come lower, even if we have that kind of selloff and we under shoot to the downside below 3,500, we're still buyers at that level because we think looking out a year, two years from now it will still be very attractive because you are getting more for less. >> final comment on energy and health care, those are two names you like, right? two sectors, i should say. >> exactly we like health care because it is a more defensive sector in an uncertain economic time, but it's a lot cheaper than the

other defenses utilities and staples, they trade at a 20% premium to the market health care is at a 3% discount, and we think that it has more earnings stability within energy, we can see this bounce today off of the 200 moving day average for the sector as well as for oil itself, and we think oil prices remain extraordinarily tight in the physical market, which just says that they're very sensitive to an upside shock say wite get geopolitical news, say we get a hurricane that means that oil prices could shoot higher with that scenario, and there have been extreme outflows from the energy etf meaning people have given up on sector, still trading at a reasonable valuation, so we like it paired with health care as that late cycle play. >> late cycle is certainly what we're hearing a lot about. thanks so much for your time today. we appreciate it >> thank you. >> cameron dawson. reuter s is reporting that number of u.s. ship makers may oppose the act if the bill's

language is disproportionately benefitting intel. the stakes are high for lockheed martin as well ylan mui spoke exclusively with lockheed's ceo and joins us with the highlights. >> lockheed's ceo told me he believes there is alignment between the business sector and republicans and democrats on the need for this investment now congress needs to just do it without it he warned that the u.s. could end up like germany, which is now literally paying the price for over relying on russia for energy. >> they allowed fragility to creep up over time with their dependence on russian gas and now with the situation in ukraine and russia potentially withholding that fuel, that's a real risk to germany's economy we don't want to get in a situation like that years down the road where we find ourselves all of a sudden in a very high risk situation. >> lockheed has said it wants to double its production of javelin missile. each one requires about 250 chips and they've been a critical asset for ukraine

taiclet told me a secure supply chain is essential, especially if this war goes on for years, but also to make sure we keep enough here at home. >> even if good fortune smiled upon us and the war was concluded quickly, the restocking of u.s. and allied, you know, stockpiles is going to go on again for years. so we don't have an immediate problem, ylan, but we will down the road if we don't really bolster our supply chain for microprocessors. >> taiclet said there's a national imperative to focus on technology and innovation and he told me washington can help speed up and amplify existing investment by the private sector kelly. >> ylan, i thought the comments from jim on this issue were pertinent. intel has $45 billion in cash and investments. they're earning 15% on their capitol. they don't need taxpayer assistance to make these big strategic such decisions they're currently -- and he

quotes senator sanders who has pretty harsh words about this as well let's just read part of that senator sanders says i can't understand why so many in congress are eager to pay this prescribe. when a government adopts an industrial policy that socializes the risk and privatizes the profits that's crony capitalism he's talking about how these big five made $70 billion in profits last year. do they really need corporate welfare? >> that's what taiclet was responding to, that type of criticism when he said that the private sector's job is to sort of leverage the support from the government, but you know, that's going to be one of the criticisms i think we're going to hear more of because this is a slimmed down bill. i mean, initially congress had some really lofty goals with this broader innovation package to invest in technology in other parts of the country, besides the two coasts to increase research and development, add some historically underfunded universities, so there were some big ideas here that are falling

by the wayside i think you may end up seeing some votes lost on both sides of the aisle from the progressive left and from some conservatives who are worried about this as well because this does end up looking like just the corporations even though this is to say that this type of investment is needed to jump start theindustry when other companies are offering major subsid subsidies. >> maybe if there was something with a more specific track record you could point to as evidence this approach works, but it feels like a lot of money and, you know, most of the times we know how these handouts typically end. one other issue that's come up is intel apparently lobbying to weaken the provisions in the bill that would try to put in these guardrails against chip investments in china, so, again, it just looks like this is a pretty self-serving act with a company that might still be interested in having that offshore capacity in the future an anyhow. >> yeah, there were a lot of, again, other things that were

originally in this legislation before it got paired down to just the bear bones. there were a lot of things around the type of investment company could make in other countries like russia and china. the house wanted to include a provision that required a new process for reviewing that type of investment. obviously very controversial that got caught up and fell by the wayside. it's one of the things congress has punted the debate on in order to pass the bear minimum that they can agree on >> i guess one quick final thing on this issue, we did learn, if this is correct, that speaker pelosi's husband has been buying a huge amount of nvidia. now, i don't know if nvidia would be a direct beneficiary of passing the chips act or if he's doing the same thing that halftime traders have been talking about for weeks now and seeing an opportunity, but have we learned anything about what the timing of that or the extent to which nvidia would benefit if this act passed and what to glean from that?

>> point number one is that the reuters report says that nvidia is actually worried that critical tax credit for the design of chips is going to be left out of this legislation that's something that they have been pushing for, so unclear how much nvidia would actually benefit. but i guess to the broader point, speaker pelosi has come under repeated criticism for the types of trades that her husband makes. her office told me this morning that she had no prior knowledge of his investment activity, that this is all done separately from her role as speaker and certainly congress has been looking at several pieces of legislation that would put some tighter guardrails around the investments that either members of congress or their spouses or dependents can make. so far that effort has gone nowhere, though, kelly we'll see if anything comes out of this most recent stock purchase by her husband. but again, the speaker's office says that this has essentially nothing to do with her, and she had no prior knowledge of the types of activity he's pursuing. >> as you said, it does look like the chips act may move

forward in some way, shape, or form so all of these elements become so important. ylan, thanks very much for your reporting today. >> sure thing. >> ylan mui in washington. coming up, disney is the worst stock in the dow this year, it's also the worst over the past3, 6 and 12 months so this is either a generational buying opportunity or is the stock fundamentally flawed we have a bull/bear debate next. halliburton shares more than doubled before dropping 30% in the past three months. what's in store next quarter we've got the action, the story, and the trade on all three of these ahead of their results. as we head to break, here's a look at some of the names leading the that has nasdaq 100 nvidia, jd.com also up about 5% as the nasdaq leads the way with a 1% gain. we're back in a moment

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dow and on pace for its worst year since 2001. the stock is trading lower than it was during the march 2020 covid selloff, so is it time to buy disney joining me now, the media analyst at rbc capital markets and a disney bear, doug croitz senior analyst at cowen. apologies for having to call you the bear here, but neutral is about the best we can do, and the stock speaks for itself. what is the upside on disney, and why do you think the stock has been lagging so much >> yeah, of course, thanks for having me, and cleary, you know, softer than expected results from netflix last quarter have continued to weigh on sentiment on streaming stocks overall as investors questioned the long-term attractiveness or even viability of the streaming video business model, and this clearly hits disney who has gone all in

on its streaming efforts that being said, i think it's important to keep in mind that disney plus is at a far different stage of its growth profile than netflix think about consensus estimates having netflix growing revenue at about 5% through 2025, but about 20% for disney's direct consumer portfolio disney plus is still expanding globally it's still ramping its content portfolio and has scoped to flex its pricing power going forward as well. ultimately not every streaming service is created equally, and i think disney warrants a premium valuation that rewards its strong growth outlook that we're just not seeing today with the stock at 100 bucks. >> you have a 176 price target we're just under 100 right now significant upside almost a double. do you think this is all just about streaming being rerated this year or is there something bigger going on with disney that's problematic >> well, i think, you know, there's a debate going on in the market now whether we're having

an indoor session or not, if we are that's going to impact disney's parts business pretty significantly. it's always had a lot of sensitivity to the economy the business had been very strong for disney over the last year since reopening, a big positive surprise, but a recession could undercut that very quickly they've done well by raising price, and it's not clear how well that can stick if we do go in a recession >> go ahead. >> i think the other issue is that, you know, they've invested an enormous amount of money in their streaming ambitions, and i think there's a question of whether they've invested it well they certainly have a lot of great content, but i think with the issues netflix has had, it's caused everybody to re-evaluate the tam, the total adjustable market of the streaming business and perhaps disney needs to rethink some of their strategy as a result of that. >> are you speaking specifically about fox?

>> fox is certainly part of it, yes, we tend to view fox as a mistake by them. disney is great at family brand content, and fox essentially diluted their content pool with a lot of credits, fine, not what they're known for or good at i think disney plus could have succeeded just as well without fox as it has with fox >> very interesting, can you respond to that and then i'll get into ceo issues. >> yeah, well, first at the parks, you know, i just want to remind folks that disney reported record revenue in operating income at the parks last quarter despite lingering pandemic, disney's parks are as well-positioned for a recession as they have been because the steps management put in place through the early days of covid in terms of improving the guest

experience in story telling, ongoing innovations in technology and plans to extend that disney magic to new formats. i think just on the park side, clearly there's perhaps some near-term disruption ahead, but investors should not lose sight of the potential for these efforts to drive meaningful operating leverage on top of an improved cost structure. >> i think the parks are probably the least controversial part of the disney story i think everybody can look at that and say, okay, that's working. they're just not getting a lot of credit for it you can respond if you think the fox acquisition was a mistake, but also about the current ceo michael yoshikami is a disney bull he was on the show a week ago, and he said the only things he could figure in why the stock hasn't performed better is maybe there is this cloud because of the ceo transition and how that's gone down. >> yeah, sure, i think the fox acquisition was clearly transformative, and i think it was very important to bolster their streaming ambitions and to better compete with the likes of netflix, but also separate themselves from all the other traditional media companies that

are trying to make this pivot away from the traditional media ecosystem towards streaming. i think it was very a very important acquisition, that even though sentiment currently is fairly negative on the growth prospects and viability of streaming, i think it will longer term prove to be a very important acquisition that helped bolster the content portfolio and keep in mind the global distribution as well. on the management team, i think, you know, there will always be a course of negativity surrounding any management team that has taken a stance on controversial issues or has, you know, i don't want to say execution missteps, but has tried to navigate muddy waters currently through the macro environment or covid, i think the track record so far points to a very successful execution against a very -- backdrop. >> doug, i'll give you the last word, would a ceo change make you more bullish >> actually, i think -- getting a little bit of a bad rap here he ran the parks business before

he was ceo and that's really his biggest area of expertise. i think he deserves, you know, all the credit for that. i think in the streaming side, you know, he's basically followed the playbook that idra laid down before he left idra's exit, i think was so much fortuitously timed from the perspective of how history is going to judge him he sort of got out when things were looking great, but before any real milestones had to be met. cha peck has to figure out how to hit those numbers that are out there. i don't really think a change would make me more bullish in fact, it might make me more cautious because it would sort of give the appearance that things are a little bit of chaos over there. >> what would make you raise your price target on the stock >> well, look, i think it's two things one is getting a little bit of certainty around the macro i think the killer is uncertainty, right maybe we're going into a recession, maybe we're not if we are going into a recession. the sooner we know that, the

better the second thing is i think disney does need to do a rethink of their strategy and their targets that they've laid out there. the street doesn't really believe their long-term target for streaming and that's part of the problem for the stock. if they were to just do a reset of expectations, i think that would clear a lot of overhang and make me more interested. >> very interesting, both do seem to agree on that point about streaming and the headwind it's been this year. we'll leave it there this has been great, guys, thank you so much. kutgun moral, and doug croitz of cowen. after dropping to a 20 month low, one technician says it's so bad it's good, and he wrote that before today's rebound his take on where it goes next. plus, extreme heat expected to wreak havoc on the energy grid in some of the most vulnerable part of the country we'll okt lo athe companies most exposed when "the exchange" continues.

welcome back, everybody. just want to keep an eye on these markets because we've lost a lot of earlier gains we're up only 80 points. we'll still take it, but we're keeping an eye on it as we move throughout the afternoon let's get to bertha coombs for our cnbc news update bertha. >> good afternoon, here's your news update for this hour. a new report showing nearly 400 law enforcement officers waited more than an hour before approaching the gunman at the uvalde school where 19 children and two teachers were killed that report also says, quote, law enforcement responders failed to adhere to their active shooter training and they failed to prioritize saving innocent lives over their own safety. the gunman charged with killing

ten people in a racially motivated mass shooting at a buffalo supermarket is scheduled for arraignment today. the federal indictment could make him eligible for the death penalty if he is found guilty. and for the first time in its 76-year history, the navy's famed blue angels aerial demonstration team will feature a female pilot flying one of the jets the navy named lieutenant amanda lee as one of the blue angels newest core members. and tonight on the news, ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy firing his chief prosecutor and the head of the country's security agency in the largest government shake-up since the start of russia's invasion nearly five months ago. we'll have the latest tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern. kelly, back over to you. >> bertha, thanks very much. still ahead, ibm, j&j, and halliburton all on deck with results, and all of them are pretty well liked by analysts. one of them doesn't have a single sell rating

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welcome back we're kicking off a busy week of earnings with nearly a quarter of the dow set to report let's get the action, the story, the trade on three important names that are getting ready for results in today's earnings exchange we'll start with ibm the shares are down slightly this month, but they're up 5% this year, not too shabby, and ibm has risen on three out of its last four reports. kristina partsinevelos has the story for us and managing director at oppenheimer is here with our trades today welcome to you both. kristina, what are we watching for with ibm >> unlike pure hardware plays, ibm has the ability to rely on software revenue as a recurring stream roughly 70% of the ibm revenues comes from higher value software and was ises in today's report we'll be looking for that reoccurring revenue mix. ibm was the third most used i.t. venture after accenture and deloitte is the business doing as well given the macro headwinds, the

slowdown and that means that firms are spending a little less on i.t the digital transformation, though, to the cloud is very still intact, and then the last quarter we saw gross margins dropping about 350 basis points because of wage pressure, m&a activity not being scaled and reinvestment back in the business today we'll look for any further pressure on margins, especially when it comes to hourly wages or salaries in general, and lastly another headwind, the strong u.s. dollar, so foreign exchange and how that's going to hurt the company, especially given how much international exposure it has. keep in mind, the company also has a very unattractive dividend at 4.7%. >> wow, all right. also not too shabby. are you bullish on the stock >> oh, not bullish on the stock. i think ibm just -- here's why, we recently upgraded growth, we downgraded safety and belief that the market is in the process of bottoming here. to us, ibm is a safety stock,

and we think is at risk to underperform through a market recovery that we're expecting through the balance of the year. and you really see it in the stock's price. if you look at how it's trended relative to the market, it bottomed on a relative basis in november when the market was topping. >> wow >> now we think its relative trend is topping as the market's bottoming here so we'd be looking to sell strength into $145 resistance. the trend is intact above $130 support. that's the 200 day average, if you do fall below there, you run the risk of this long-term down trend dating back to 2013. you got low or high since then that trend resumes lower. >> and the stock's at 139. i like what you say, this is a stock, if you're bearish on the market, maybe you want to own it here if you think we're bottoming, not so much. we'll leave that ibm as a bell weather for how investors are feeling, and we'll move on to another dow component, which is

j&j. it's down about 1% this month. it is still up about 3% for the year the shares have moved higher on every report over the past year. it's beaten estimates every quarter for the past five years, and there are no sell ratings on the street bertha coombs has the story. bertha. >> tough to want to sell j&j, kelly. this is a company that is expected to see growth of about 2.5% on both the top and the bottom line going into this quarter here their pharmaceutical areas, the area that's really the faster growth with blockbuster names like stellar ra and trem fie ya, which help treat psoriasis and some of their cancer drugs as well they're also facing the trifecta of headwinds particularly when you start talking about their devices as well. they are facing the strong dollar, which is going to make

for tougher sales abroad they're also facing supply chain issues as far as their manufacturing, and of course inflation, which is something that is hitting pretty much everyone across the board that needs to manufacture as far as their consumer products area, well, that's the area that's likely to be flat according to the estimates from analysts, and they are likely to spin that off as much as we saw today with gsk spinning off. maybe we'll get more details on that on the call tomorrow. >> do you like the stock >> i do. i like it better than cash you know, this is another absolute versus relative call. i think it's going to continue steadily higher over the long-term as it has and outperform cash, unsure if it's being to under -- or excuse me, outperform versus the market here just real quick in terms of levels, be tactical with it, 170 sport, they can get the new high above 187 looking at the coming months, but consider that

johnson & johnson is just what we think completing its best run of out performance since the market collapsed in early 2020 so i think there is some risk for some relative giveback or at least you're going to see the market catch up to johnson & johnson of the coming months. >> it's at 175 on a 17 times forward p/e, speaking of the market bertha, thank you very much. we'll turn to our final name, which is hallhalliburton it is still up 26% for the year, and it's only risen twice out of its last four earnings reports pippa stevens has the story. >> hey, kelly, a lot has changed for energy stocks in the last month as oil prices retreat on the heels of recession fears and halliburton is no exception. it hit the highest level in four years in june, and it's down more than 30% since a very sharp selloff there. now looking ahead to tomorrow's report, one thing that's really key is inflationary pressures versus pricing power and to what extent that plays through into

margins, so essentially can halliburton pass along the higher costs its seeing from things like labor and raw materials. can they pass it along to their customers? and then another thing, of course, is production plans from enp companies. halliburton has less international exposure than some of its peers so the north american market is really important, and we did see the -- jump nearly 30% during the second quarter according to stifel with prices remaining volatile here, we could see that start to slow a little bit. >> yeah, all right, ari, you've been a relative bear and relative bull maybe we'll call the first two. what do you do with halliburton? >> it's a relative game, kelly that's how it works. i think here we got an opportunity generally speaking as pippa discussed the pullback in energy prices in recent weeks. i do think that is an opportunity to buy a stock like halliburton. i think you trade this one this a range, generally speaking energy stocks, i think that weakness we've seen, it

indicates that that run is slowing but not ending a lot of the sector overall coming into the 200 day average. we to preefer enp names on this pullback rather than the service names like a halliburton, but halliburton looks tactical here. here's the range i'm watching, 27 support on the upside, 34 resistance on the upside, and i think for now we've inflected higher and you get a continued run up to that 50 day average. >> we're at 29, and we'll see what happens after results pippa, thank you very much we'll see you soon, our pippa stevens, thank you very much for all of your picks and trades today. coming up, with about 56 million americans forecast to experience dangerous levels of heat this week, we'll get a look at how utilities will be impacted and whether the alt energy names will see a boost. and bank of america shares fractionally higher today on a second-quarter revenue beat. the ceo brian moynihan will be on closing bell at 3:00 p.m. eastern today to discuss tseho results, the economy and more. don't miss it.

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. welcome back, it's not just europe right now, there's a major heat wave hitting the south and the midwest impacting states from the great lakes all the way to the west coast. kristina partsinevelos is here with a look at what these record temperatures are going to mean for utility prices and i doubt it's good news. >> no, it's not good news, just like the temperature is not good news parts of texas, kansas, oklahoma, could see their highest summer temperatures to date with predicted highs reaching 102 to 110 degrees. the extreme weather overloading electricity grid and putting a strain on human lives. natu natural gas prices are soaring nearly 30% just in the past two weeks alone. that's why the state run power grid in texas, ercot has asked consumers to conserve power twice. tesla, toyota, samsung have made moves to curb electricity usage. toyota is cutting the work days

shorter. gm said it would lower its air-conditioning usage as well so the heat is driving up electricity prices but blackouts and inefficiencies way on firms like energy energy, entergy with power protection in the deep south all negative month to date the u.s. department of energy found that 70% of u.s. transmission lines are more than 25 years old, and that stat that i just told you about right now came from the most recent review that was held back in 2015 it's the latest i could find lines typically have a 50-year life span, 31 years, it's a balancing act between natural gas, wind, and coal for utility firms and dangerous heat levels are testing power grids like never before. >> so many angles of that that you just don't consider until it all goes catastrophically wrong. >> usually that's how life is, right? >> exactly and it's like why didn't we do or that. >> we have alternatives. we have solar.

we have people looking for ways to kind of add this resilience, but i mean, the stocks have been challenging because there's not the stimulus or what do you call it, subsidy support that they were hoping for, but is this still an opportunity >> it is an opportunity because the two key renewable energy sources in texas are contributing to the texas power grid are solar and wind, but often they're unreliable >> even though we've brought on a lot of new capacity in the form of wind and solar, that's not always the most reliable source of energy because you're really reliant upon the weather. if the weather's not perfect you're going to lose out on that extra capacity. >> solar power is contributing to a record share of power generation in texas. many companies like you mentioned have been under pressure lately. that's because of separate issues, you got a lack of climate build, which would include solar policies and then a slowing housing market considering so many people use panels on their homes. sun power, for example, look at that stock down 16 to 18% in the

last three months and the clean global energy etf had its worst week since march 2021. so they are alternative renewable sources yet still unfortunately unreliable, and you cannot take for granted the human power that needs -- you need those people to go out there and maintain them, and when the heat is just 100 plus, it's tough >> and certain natural gas plants that were meant to always just kind of be there to help provide power are now being relied on as if providing power was their main full-time function, they're being asked to do it in max out kind of ways. >> especially when coal and nuclear is not operating at full capacity profit wise, they're not operating at the best level they could be so really the pressure like you said is just on natural gas. >> true, kristina, thank you very much. kristina partsinevelos. i want to draw your attention to shares of apple, which are turning lower in the last few minutes on reports that the company plans to slow hiring and spending in some divisions in 2023.

now it's not a company wide policy, but the uncertainty in the economy seems to be moving even one of the world's biggest companies in that direction. we heard comments from goldman earlier this morning about slowing the velocity of hiring now it's apple whose shares have gone from positive to down 9/10 of 1%. still ahead, so bad it's good maybe. one commodity that one technician has said is poised to bounceheai at nt. s sd.

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welcome back to "the exchange." here's some better news. copper prices rebounding 3% today after falling more than 30% over the past three months good news is seen as an economic indicator and my next guest says there could be more gains to come joining me is carter worth, ceo of worth charting. you were right where are we going from here >> sometimes it just gets too stretched in one direction forget in this case it was down and sometimes it's too far off with the oil bid and then you get a new reversion. it is very hard to time it you get it wrong all of the time this one is bouncing nicely. let's look at a chart or two

copper is down 37% from its peak to trough and we got a bounce today. i think it can carry, and in general, just as commodities were loved, three, four, five months ago and now they're hated and you take the road less traveled and lay play for a bou. >> i'll press you from the macro piece of this. my point being, you were also correct to call the topan energy when you called the top an energy. so would you want to go out on a limb and add this up and say maybe the whole complex is at another higher inflexion point or is this really more copper specific >> i think that's fair we had fun looking at energy that was quite steep and then if there are some things equal and opposite reaction. these are things that are quite steep to the down side, and so you do get bounces and the first thing to say is it would be very hard to recoup the losses and make new highs

copper is not going to make new highs in the yks year or more, but what we do know is that it's overdone and that you can get a bounce that you carry in energy and it all is, think, with the dollar being too stretched and that, too, >> true. weaker there are helps support crude, copper and i like what you're saying and see if everyone caught it we might not be back at those highs for a year or more could we be basically a plateau now and we'll let others think about the implications for the inflation rate and do we think we can flatten out for some time >> if we really go into a proper recession, you have assets and high data, if you will, very sensitive to economic wins that will get worse, but even if, and i'll say it this way, even if copper will go much lower from here, the path lower passes through a higher price it's just overdone on an intermediate basis >> so you're not ruling out that

you could see another leg down and pardon the comment about the marker, he thinks we're basically at a bottom here and at a bottoming process while others remain worried that we'll have this next shoe to drop. >> well, there are unfilled gas above in the s&p and that's 4030 and 4050 so the bounce that's been underway for the month and the lows are june 16, june 17 and here we are mid-july and i think the bounce continues >> carter, thanks for your time today. >> you bet. >> carter worth of worth charting >> still ahead, homebuilders anticipating a slowdown in home buying for the rest of the year according to confidence data this morning and the impact on affordability and on the broer ony xtad

welcome back, everybody. before we go, let's get a housing health check the homebuilder etf and the xhb

is slightly higher today even though we got this historic plunge in sentiment and diana olick is here with what's behind the drop and what it means for housing, diana. >> it's affordability, plain and simple and that's why builder sentiment dropped 12 points to 55 on the homebuilder's index, that is the single largest drop in the 37-year history with the one exception of april 2020 with the first month of the pandemic lockdown and it's also well below expectations of just a two-point drop anything above 50 is considered positive, but sentiment has fallen 24 points since march when mortgage rates really took off in july of last year and it was at 80, and it's really the speed of this turnaround that's so remarkable and even during the historic subprime housing crash, building sentiment fell from mid-2005 to 2009 and in far smaller increments over four years. the biggest one-month drop was

four points in november 2005 coincidentally when mortgage rates took a sharp move higher current sales conditions dropped 12 points to 64. sales expectations in the next six months fell 11 points to 50 and buyer traffic also down 11 points to 37 that last one now solidly in negative territory the builder's site worsening affordability as well as continued production bottlenecks 13% of builders surveyed reported reducing prices in the past month to limit cancellations. so, kelly, we'll be watching that in the homebuilder earnings reports for sure >> i'm looking at this market reaction, diana and we have the terrible confidence drop and we have rates back on the rise. i saw the ten-year above 3% and call that 6% on the mortgage rate and we have green for the xhb up about a quarter of a percent. it's almost outperforming. >> right and it may be that the builder stocks are just so cheap right now. i mean, they are down so

dramatically since the start of this year and some of the multiples here you just see these stocks and maybe they're worth a buy on the dip who knows? again, i think we'll see more pain in the housing market especially when we see the next set of builder earnings. >> is there a way to say that the pain is healthy or necessary, but that maybe this adjustment is actually happening so quickly that it's going to allow for some kind of necessary reset? >> i think using the word healthy is good. we do need to see home prices come back down to earth in order for buyers to come back into the market as i said so many timesover th past year, this housing market is simply unaffordable and unsustainable at these price levels and maybe this takes the heat out of it and we want to see those gains and those 20% gains come back down to earth. >> especially with rents doing what they are, as well >> diana, we'll leave it there thank you. our diana olick.

d.r. horton is set to report this thursday and we'll look at one name that looks technically sound ahead of results and one that's a bit shaky that's on "power lunch" which begins right now ♪ ♪ ♪ good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler matheson we're flying high right now with boeing shares up 10% in a week and delta placing a big order and i do mean big. bank of america hiking its price target on that company if sentiment is turning is boeing now a buy plus, bitcoin miners and power down in texas as the intense heat tests the grid there. the ceo of riot block chain here to discuss the impact on the mining community and whether today's rise in bitcoin prices will continue. kelly? >> tyler, thanks look at this, we're erasing a 356-point gain on th