i do think you have to say keep it on a short leash. it's kind a guilty until proven innocent. >> literally like 100 points higher. >> no doubt about it. >> yeah, absolutely. not even there. we will see you tomorrow. that mike santilli with his last word. begins right now. spending for the next year. the tech giant upping for it potential economic slowdown. the ripple effects across corporate america coming up. takes a historic drop this month. its largest one-month plunge in the 37 year history of this survey. later, netflix on the clock. they report tomorrow subscriber losses in the billions.

near down 20% this year. from king anderson. think you guys for being here. we will start with a $50 billion hiring freeze reports from apple. slow the pace of job growth in spending in some department. that's in the stocks lower midday, raising $52 billion from its market cap by the end of the day. the latest tech company to cut back on hiring trends. video joining the name. meta and intel are some of the companies putting a pause on payroll editions. apple news, seems to have an impact on the broader market as well with the major indexes all giving up gains in the afternoon. the doubt swinging more than hundred 50 points from high to low. closing down 1/10 of a percent.

were going to get more signs like this for the future. it's one thing to have layoffs. to pause hiring? >> this is being pieced out. first of all, this is kind of fun here. were going to have a little fun today. you just call it the $52 billion layoff question. again, we don't know they're going to be asked this question when they report their earnings next week. there probably kind of piecing the information out. we've been talking about for a month or so since microsoft preannounced the existing quarter because. sometimes these companies like to get the information out there little by little so that when, basically, they report it's not all one big bomb, if you will. you think about apple, the way it's acted over the last few weeks. it was up 70% at its highest today. before it sold off after it had a little run off of its lows

here. if you think about with the s&p 500 it over the same period of time, it was a a percent. apple doubled the first performance of the s&p 500 than the nasdaq. the nasdaq was up about 10 or so percent. may be looking for an excuse to lighten up. when you look the day trying you see that headline, he went down in a straight line here. again, i think probably a better way to get all the bad news out, little by little than all that one report. when they were very likely to guide the existing quarter. i have to ask. this is apple were talking about here. there's one thing video.

whether it be netflix, hey, were going to slow down here but it's kind of been the bellwether. it's been a safe haven. all the supreme it is. you can kind a pile onto that. it's been like that perceived margin of safety. has come across as being very impervious. actually, you know what? this macroeconomic situation applies to us as well. i think investors are taking notice. i think it's a good job on their part, in terms of getting out terms of things and being transparent. i think so many investors have taken a safe haven there. regardless of what's going on and the rest of the market. no capital saying this applies to us as well. i think, yeah, if you see any continued weakness that apple, that is was really going to lead to this market in the short term bear market bottom.

if you look at this news and all of the other headline surrounding apple, you read this and say, maybe apple is not the bellwether that it once was and maybe we should look at this and value of this potentially differently. >> i think we've been hearing consistently from tech businesses that they want the right size. then it makes sense, right? they've all been on major hiring sprees. it all makes sense. i think were going to see, probably for the market, is this type of business loss, job losses that are happening at the white-collar/midtier employee. i think the lower income, hourly wage employee still has a great job and the outlook remains strong. if you think about your average business, they have one person running facebook, one person running instagram. some kind of teenager running their tik-tok. were going to consolidate that to just one person. who is going to run all of

their social media. i hope it's a teenager because they actually know what they are doing. i think that is important in locations, right? the economy at large. >> would probably cost them a little bit less too. >> is there any indication that were hearing from apple west you didn't mention it was a way to preannounced by potentially. familiar with the matter but essentially getting this less clear news out there now so that when earnings come along, it's early in the market. do you expect to hear if more tech companies report over the next few weeks or so? more indications of this through the likes of big and small tech. >> yeah, that's my guess. but we've been talking about for the next couple weeks on the show really. this is typical in terms of the development and business cycle. you tend to see new orders come down. you tend to see housing data, which is exactly what we saw this morning. and then usually start to see an increase on initial employment claims.

we haven't really seen that yet. the labor market continues to be strong. you start to get indication from companies like apple, big tech companies, this is not unusual, given where we are. speaking to apple specifically, this is a stop that we've talked about for a number of weeks. if not months on the show, still trading above its average price to earnings ratio. it earnings have yet to come down. i think that is perhaps the next shoe to drop for this market and the next shoe to drop for companies like apple. it doesn't mean that they get relatively half performed but in terms of the stock market, it can be difficult. we talked about retail sales in the show on friday. a nominal retail sales look pretty good. real retail sales, are actually down. people are spending more, they are getting less. unit sales are falling. think about companies like our age. we've heard from those names and are seeing some weakness. i would keep an eye out for that come earnings. >> i would just mention this, jeff, you just mentioned about trading.

those expectations have not come down yet. i think that's really important. if you think about mid, high to low digits, that basically in line with the s&p 500. we've been saying that that needs to come down this year. the s&p 500 traits that less than 17 times that sort of number. apple still looks a bit bad. what do you cut costs right now if you have high cost? you have disruption to your supply chain. you have an onset of demand situations as a relates to places like china, like russia. that's one reason why you might kind of like it out there that you're going to slow some of the expenses. especially if your margins, which are expected to be 43% this year, largely predicated on a lot of stuff that you are doing in services. that's really important. to them, they have to be cutting costs. i don't think this is a really unexpected announcement. we've heard from necklace, we've heard from meta, we've heard from netflix.

it just makes sense. if you weren't doing it, you'd start to ask a few questions here. the last point i will make is obviously apple is a huge part of s&p 500 earnings too. i think that if apple were to guide lower, that might be the reason why strategists start to lower, at least there s&p 500 earnings. we party see them come down other targets. but we need to see earnings at the comedown for this year. >> they do. only bucket held up outside of apple has really been energy. were starting to see some volatility in that space as well. i think this is apple news, while you don't want to hang your hat on it, i think investors are on pins and needles, which kind of speaks to, look at the river so we had today. the left sessions we've opened at lowe's, depending on the day, and we rallied up on those lows. today was the exact opposite. i think investigators are trying to get there putting any time apple comes out and makes a statement like this, you have to take notice. you have to. >> into your point, it's a

large leading in the index. any bad news for apple, bad news for the index. >> for all of us. >> all of us, exactly. earnings out for ibm more than 4% in aftermarket trading. on the top and bottom lines of margins coming in lower than street expectations. the stock more than erasing all of its gains for the year. the conference call is getting underway about nine minutes ago. let's get to bertha coombs who has the details. >> bertha, how do they kick this thing off? >> haven't heard just yet, nothing new, overall. this adjusted gross margin, missing estimates with higher cost. but also what we are seeing here is another example of a global company facing strong overhead winds. they actually broke out the hit in the current quarter for each of its divisions from a seven point hit in terms of software to an eight point hit in its consulting services. edited up to an overall impact and top line of $900 million.

at the dollar been a little weaker. it's 200 more than what they thought in april. the company now sees a 6% fx revenue hit for the year. from a previous forecast of 3- 4%. were going to be hearing more about this from the school but companies. >> nothing to sneeze at, bertha, thank you. julie, clearly factors here. it doesn't appear that the markets giving them any sort of path. thinking that this impact is one time thing and looks better from here, especially with the weakening, why do you think that is? >> i think there's concerned about is going to be persistent. i think there's a realization that honestly we have not been factoring in the headwinds of effects clearly enough. we don't see any s&p 500 revisions.

i think it's going to be a much, much bigger deal than people are counting on it make sense. yes, it could be a one-time thing but we don't know how long the dollar will stay persistently, as high as it has been. it has implications. foreign countries decide to switch into other things. it has risen implications both for margins, for cash flow, and for future runway of growth. i think that's why, for us, we prefer some of these smaller businesses that don't have geopolitical risks, the don't have exposer to fx. i think those businesses are cleaner. >> yeah, the fight of the multinational still and focus here in the second quarter. let's get some more color on those ibm earnings. he is a u.s. tech sector specialists and managing director. despite the market reaction, you do believe that the guidance that they gave, reiterating guidance, is bullish for this stock.

why do you think the investors in the after hours don't agree with you? >> all step back here, in terms of understanding which is the current. certainly, in terms of revenue strength, despite fx headwinds. the close at 2 1/2 billion dollars of resin new. really different weather infrastructure. i think most importantly, they are reiterating the cost of currency growth at the high end of their mid-single digit range. i think from an ibm standpoint, a little bit of expectations perspective, the stock has outperformed the nasdaq by 30% today. the chairs are a little bit weaker here. in terms of the sector, that can be pretty encouraging. >> is ibm still a bellwether?

as you speak about the rebates to the broader sector. committed these numbers and say, okay, this is going to potentially indicate what we might see from big tech this year? >> ibm has done really extraordinary job of the last five years transforming the company into a play on the hybrid cloud. doubling down on software, acquiring. they're going to continue to acquire. at least. i think it's something much more of a bellwether than it has been 5- 10 years ago. the company really did restructure during the last five years and aligned themselves with public labs. >> given all the things that are happening in ibm, can you expand a little bit in terms of

things we should be looking at that we may be able to extrapolate into tech companies that are getting ready to release next week as a whole? >> we were talking about this early in terms of investors onto pins and needles. this is really our first touch point on the health of the i.t. enterprise budget right now. we had comments from the ceo service, but mcdermott a few weeks ago. he talks about headwinds for the business. and just like that, you have ibm here reiterating a foliar guide. i think you certainly can take comfort in terms of their ability to read their full-year. pretty broad-based. it's positive with respect to really negative investor invests. >> we do have some breaking news on twitter.

julia has the details for us. twitter has filed in response to elon musk filing, saying that he did not think that the twitter trial should be expedited. this all happens and this filing comes ahead of the hearing tomorrow in which the judge will determine the schedule of the trial. interestingly, looking for this filing here, twitter says that elon musk's quote fails at every level and says that he does not present any reason that the trial must wait until next year. this filing says "must alleged court issued" irrelevant slideshow that elon musk used to prolong this litigation. going on to say that there is no reason here that musk gives no reason to delay this trial. i believe 11 a.m. eastern. they say that this very

public dispute harmed twitter with each passing day. musk is in breach. >> it clearly does. he's talking about how they calculate important metrics of their business. the company has said that that you have been doing in the way that they have been for years. at the end of the day, the stock is up 19% from just a week ago or so. it's not harming the stock right now. i just fear that if there is some sort of resolution that's adverse to twitter, the stock is going much lower. you think about how much snap is down on the similar revenue base. they monetize better. the quarter that twitter is going to report this week is not going to be particularly great. i can't imagine we have much to say. but to put lipstick on a pig, you're just not going to be able to do that here. at the end of the day, if musk is gone and the delaware court is not enforcing them to do anything, this scott stock as a to handle on it.

>> jared, i want to ask you because you mentioned the prospect of ibm. what you think the prospect for mna is throughout the entire tech sector? what using the twitter? this one is a special situatio , a little bit hairy, little bit messy. but broadly speaking, the settle at lower levels. do you expect to see more of this? >> for sure. i want to reiterate that. for sure, the deal is holding up a stop right now. without the deal puts about 23 $-25 a share. with broader industry, we had $160 billion of software year- to-date. that's certainly aided by vmware . i expect more to continue.

you can see more ibm to borrow from future years of mna. given the depressed valuations in the sector, we certainly think that we are going to have more than to come. >> jared, thank you so much. i want to turn to you want twitter news. an expedited trial, an expedited court situation is paramount for this country. the potential deal. it's $44 billion situation for them. you agree with dan that this is a stock that's in his 20s if it does fall through? >> yeah, i have a hard time believing otherwise, honestly. i think at this point, any headline is going to move one way or the other. i just don't understand how monetizing to this point.

>> i apologize, we are getting a little bit of static and difficulty with your feed. we will cut a break. hopefully we will get that up and running shortly. coming up, crude crushing oil prices backing up the $100 level variable energy continue to buyer? the details, next. earnings season in full swing as the big bang support. were back in two. you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.

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check out this energizing valley and wti crude oil prices jumping hundred bucks a barrel. all moving higher today. then, reporting tomorrow. >> a couple fun things here. for some of these guys. nothing rallies. i think that's probably one. keep an eye, we talk about this a lot.

40% of that. you see how the stocks underperform the commodity today. that leads me to believe that it had something more to do with the move in the dollar. let's see. our friend carter has been saying that the dollar is likely to come up 3-4%, something like that. it would e interesting to see how much room that also gives crude oil. another thing is i do not a lot of us are saying they probably sell crude. some of that going on. again, let's see how the stocks act. that is one of the bright spots and s&p 500's earnings. the energy. if they put up big numbers but don't perform. >> the supply punch still continues. it's only gotten worse in europe. we mentioned the dollar, little

bit weaker, finally. what you see oil going from here because it seems like there's been a little bit of arrange wound activity recently. >> supply is for sure constrain. i think it was nteresting seeing the comments out of bidens meeting in the middle east. when you get the story of what a couple broke up and they both have very different answers, biden said it sounded great and coming out of the middle east, didn't sara mccullough caught on. i think the outlook is still really uncertain. been of the supply is going to be tight. i don't see any real reason for crude to be dropping but there is the impact of the dollar. it's hard to predict and i think that's why, for us, as long-term investors, is pretty tricky. >> on the demand side of the equation, you do still have china. you got mass testing going on there. there's no indication that they wouldn't shut down economies on

a continued basis if they continue to find more cases. is that not having an impact here? >> you have ukraine, china, zero covid. and you have inflation here. i think all of those things come together for events. i will say, i think dan is spot on in terms of the dollar and how it's correlated to crude and other energies. what i will say, though, is that we have seen the disparity between the actual commodity and the shares for some time. he clearly knows more than i do at this point in time about where this is. i can't say that i'm seeing a new trend as it pertains to a divergence between share prices and the actual commodity.

i would expect that to continue somewhat. >> tomorrow when it reports. there's a lot more facts to come. here is what is coming up next. earnings season is in full swing. our next guest says there's one key component that could mean big things for stocks. will break down what he's watching, next. homebuilder blues. lunging at the lower level since the part of intimate. is it time to close the doorn o the home building trade? you are watching fast money. we are back right after this.

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to the last of the major banks reporting earnings today. some trading revenues. a slowdown in dealmaking and concerns about "entrenched inflation." the bank of america. bullish on the consumer in an interview on the first two weeks of july, spending 11% higher than last year. transactions are up 6-7%. what are we to make up today's results and commentary, jeff, on the fast lane. you got this tale of two economies. on one hand, you have very strong consumer. that is evident in both. inability from higher interest rates for loan making.

on the other hand, you got all of the markets related activities setting aside trading . big pullbacks during the quarter. develop management, active management, those takedown due to volatility. what we make of this? >> i think is really just a continuation of what we talked about earlier, quite honestly. i know things look good currently but i wonder if what banks are saying is more indication of what was and what is going to be. i think about the fact that it's inverted. i did an analysis today. how j.p. morgan did after the s&p 500. the story isn't particularly good. my opinion is that the economy is going to get worse. i think some tumors are popping up spending. i think ultimatel

, this rally that we are seeing in banks. it was very, very weak heading into earnings. i think, ultimately, it ends up breaking your heart to get that down with the other super bowl names and the economy flows. >> i agree with that. we've been talking about this. the one thing that hasn't happened yet, i know we are going to talk about housing. we also have a situation where we haven't seen unemployment really pick up in a meaningful manner. what did we spend for a few minutes of the show talking about some of the biggest employers of our country slowing hiring. i think once we see that unemployment rate come off of 40 year lows. i think that will be the nail in the coffin of consumer. gse sort of stuff. i just mean we have a consumer that the saving rate as come down a lot.

is that we are looking. is likely to get worse from here. were starting to see lone grove to celebrate too. to me, i don't think it's a graze up and i do think it's a situation between jeremy diamond. it's pretty interesting. jamie says they're prepared for economic hurricane. j.p. morgan stock is right back to where it was right before recorded. to me, i'm going to keep a closer eye. >> interesting. i will say having listened all six, i had to enjoy pleasure. >> i'm hearing this, julie, is a subfactor of executing on their business? or do you think it's maybe he

really does think that the environment is that worrisome. these peers have it wrong. he does have an exposure that's very different than some of the other players. this is fantastic from a trading standpoint. but obviously, there's been no ipos, no major origination. all the investment makers are sitting on their hands right now. all of these bracket firms, they have different strengths and weaknesses via private wells. i agree that i think j.p. morgan was the one to watch because i think they have the most insight on the consumer, given the reach of their business. i'm fighting more with jamie. i can't speak for brian, is probably for the best that i don't, actually. but i think generally speaking, it doesn't look like a very positive environment from multiple, all kinds of

weakening. those brackets aren't really a great place. i agree, it's a heartbreak. >> for those on the east coast new york area, it was more like hurricane conditions. that was also a bit confusing. our next guest is encouraging signs in the early days of earnings season. the senior managing director at evercore isi. julian, you seem more of. the labor force is strong. the unemployment numbers are strong. avoid a recession here. >> i think you hit the nail on the head a few moments ago, leslie, when you said it was a tale of two economies. it's really more like a tale of 10 economies. which had different shareprice reactions and things that were extenuating, that regard.

basically, when you think about it, you go back to friday. the data from friday is telling you that a, inflation expectations are coming in. b, the labor market continues strong. i would know that today is obviously in shaker with them most iconic consumer brand. talks about the highly slowdown. it doesn't talk about layoffs. it's the critical difference to us. when we think about earnings and we think about where stocks are now, we think there is upside simply because there may be overpricing of this recession but some people believe is a minute. >> do we actually need a recession for stocks to go down from here because it was actually a headline today. even if there isn't a recession, we could still see the stock market go down even further from here. is that

something you're focused on? >> actually, in terms of the psychology, there's two ways to look at it. the retail investor. it continues to have exposure towards the higher end of his or her range. there labor market situation is still good. the institutional investor, on the other hand, has had this mind-set in reaction to this new inflation paradigm for some months now. i think that really shows what the market. it is argued that stocks are going to be able to surmount some of the negative headlines and continue higher and what we think is a fair market rally. >> it looks like there's a

little bit about .180 that's taken place there. only time will tell. julian, tricky. i'm just looking after today's performance, after earnings season, there are two things that are out for the s&p 500. wells fargo and citibank. >> i think citibank is probably the one of all of them. for a while, distinguished trading. i want to say half a point on book value, .5. don't quote me exactly on that but it was like .5-.7 was the range there. i still think that one trait particularly cheap. again, there's a restructuring situation around there that i think leads them to have their own story and gross story going forward. that would probably make pick of the group. generally speaking, i'm kind of in the camp with jeff mills here. and i said it, going in

earnings. you might see a pop you get anything remotely positive and then you might see things that start to rollover. i actually listen to jamie. i understand that there is a recession. he always tends to be more cautious. outperform expectations. in terms of the general space, i'm not particularly constructive with an inverted yogurt, but i think the city has its own story and that's probably where i would be. >> this probably the near term benefits. the question is how long it will be a benefit and when it stabilizes and what happens in 2023. i think investors are reacting to that. >> that's going to cause the recession, that's going to cause higher unemployment. inflation is deeply entrenched, okay? in the economy. if we were to have peak this or peak that. it doesn't matter because jamie damon also told us last week

before their earnings report that the target of 4% inflation. down from 9% is really optimistic. the point is, it's going to be persistent and pesky. therefore, if we have the situation where we don't go meaningfully low and growth doesn't materialize, do not go to the stock market. >> they are filling the velocity of hiring as well. just like apple. we talked about the tech companies doing that. we heard that from wells fargo in the mortgage business a few weeks ago. another thing to keep an eye on. >> quick programming note, our own jimmy kramer is picking up his first show. don't miss the very special m meyadon right after that. turboxflex frames are engineered with a 360 degree hinge disguised in the design. for maximum comfort,

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will come back to fast money. confidence among homeowners dropped 12% in july. outside of april 2020.

the x hbo homebuilder etf still down over 30% this year. what is the latest read on builders for the housing secto , jeff? >> we may not have. there he is. >> i'm here, can you hear me? >> it comes with technical difficulty tonight. very important from a macro perspective. i have a chart that looks at housing versus initial unemployment games. you start to see profits deteriorate. then you start to see the labor market deteriorate. following the typical pattern, just on builders. i think the good is that they are very, very cheap. i think that's perhaps why. the concerning part is the structural support that exist for housing is overwhelmed by the issue that we have right now

. at half its average pe, it's hard for me to buy right now but just maybe, it's already priced in a fair bit of bad news. >> that's possible. jeff, tricky. coming up, merger mania heading for the media phase. as we head into earnings. is a deal in store for the streaming? the details, i had. more coin in the crypto space. is there a warm-up coming for the crypto space was you don't go anywhere. there's more fast money soon.

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to anyone that thinks they know what "nope" is about i would say... nope. you got a summer blockbuster on your hands. it is so hard to predict the mind of jordan peele. checkable combat fast money. the stock is still down there 70% this year, having to pull back in the name made it a takeout target. joint is with the very latest on this. julia? >> whether or not netflix becomes a takeout target, it depends on what it reports tomorrow and over the course of the rest of this year. how much its stock moves slower. investors were very much

focused on that key netflix subscriber. to lose 2 million subs in the second quarter in the third quarter. it's results are worse than that. that can play into analyst concerns. saying and a new report today it's seeing signs that streaming may not be recession proof. increasing at lowered and roku. netflix has been working to crack down on password sharing. just today, announcing it's launching and out of home feature which is a new discounted way to add subscribers which would then benefit the streamer. we may learn more about another effort, which is the ad supported service. we will hear more about how it used to drive growth. if netflix could stop. microsoft could look to do more with his partner.

apple has shown growing interest in media by regulatory scrutiny. and comcast and nbc universal's parent company could be looking for more scale to build on the company's strength in ad supported streaming. we are also looking ahead to results from parent now and warner bros. discovery down the line. although those could be targets as well. leslie? >> we could be bringing back the bundle after all. thank you, julia. let's trade in, dan, let's think. >> talk about what you're going to come out with. about a 14% in either direction. here's the good news about having that whisper number about the amount of subs are going to lose. it's kind of out there. if it's not much worse than that. i do expect one more big. waiting around for some company to buy. i don't think those

guys are going to be selling for $75 billion market values. to me, i think that's going to be a really tough pill to swallow here. i bought it last month. i'm actually waiting for another gap lowered. this bottom is going to take a while to get the transformation company is going to take a while too. i don't think it will be a reversal coming anytime soon. >> speaking with netflix options trader, our betting that. my joint is now with the action. >> pointing out, a very big move. it was 14%. over 15% by the day. over three times the average wickline calls by more than 2- 1. you sought big buyers of the weekly 100 believe it or not. and also the 150. treating 50,060 400 respectively. i don't know if it's going to go much. there is further downside potentially. >> all right, thank you, mike.

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out welcome back to fast money. petroleum popping the case today. of about .7% after rising more than 2% in the regular session. berkshire hathaway buying another one .9 million shares to about 20%. what you read on this? >> i think it's evaluation play, whether you're talking about mobile trading. we were way overbought. they are all back to the 200 day. i think oil stays here. that's enough, maybe more, to support these evaluations going forward. i can understand what's going on. >> with a 20% stake, merger hathaway's got to have more than they did a few months ago when they started buying.

>> that's what you want there. you look at the cash flow which is about $10 million this year. if they can continue to pay that cash, you're looking at a cash cow going forward. >> that's usually what he does. >> up next, your final trade. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates,

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>> moments away from a special "mad money." talking with billionaire investor can langone and investor. coming up at the top of the hour. it is time for the final trade. let's go around the worn starting with you. >> i like the business. this has durable long-term growth both in the long-term and abroad. people think that it is exposed to e-commerce which is

weakening. this is an automation software solution. it has leverage that is a good opportunity. >> oldie but goodie, cbs. >> bank stocks. >> covered that today. thanks for watching "fast money." mad money" at the new york stock exchange starts right now. >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always about the markets and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hi, i am kramer. coming to you from my new homebase at the new york stock exchange. i'm just trying to help you make some money.