tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC July 20, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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it's 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters, and here's your "five@5." looking to extend the tuesday turnaround gains today into wednesday. sticking with that rally, it's not just tech and blue chips getting a midsummer bump small caps are also surging and doing something for the first time since january and call it sh linking subscriber prices. netflix coming up short its
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dismal anticipation. it's not out of the woods just yet. plus european policy makers getting set for an emergency plan to deal with the global energy crisis and russia's role as primary fueler for the block. our own brian sullivan is on the ground with what's at stake in europe. and later on, cathie wood admits defeat for one of her worst supported funds. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc good morning and welcome to the show i am dominic chu here at cnbc global headquarters. brian sullivan, as you can see there is in longen held, germany, with a look at the energy prices and the possible gas cliff facing not only germany, but the entire
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continent as well. brian, you're wearing a hard hat. >> yeah. we're here at the foundry, a 60-year-end family foundry why are we here, dom we're here because we're going to do this all show long and awe all day long on cnbc, we're going to connect the dot tweens the energy crisis and nord stream pipelines and why u.s. markets care we're going to go from there to here, using this as the storytelling machine to get to why it matter os to the united states as well and i'm going to give you, dom, my friend, a hot take on this as everybody's waking up. i believe a little pressure test, which we'll talk about in a few minutes here, a little pressure test on the nord stream pipeline is one of the main reasons the stockmarket rallied yesterday. we can talk about i, but we're here all day long in this amaze
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tag silt to connect the dots tomorrow, honestly, maybe one of the most critical days for the u.s. and global stockmarkets this year. >> all right, brian sullivan, we'll come back to you throughout the course of the day. let's kick things off on wednesday morning with your stock u.s. futures picture we're looking to possible extend the gains. the dow is up by 35 points, the s&p up by 5 and the nasdaq, 32 every major index rose 2.5% oar more the dow, s&p, and nasdaq all posting their best day since late june, but this week it's the small cap russell 2000 index that's outperforming the lot, coming off its best days since january with a more than 3% gain over the last week, it's up more than 4%. and in a month, topping returns from both the dow and the s&p 500. so keep an eye on those small
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cap stocks, maybe an indicator, forward looking. >> in the bond yields, they're moving, although, we're seeing a little bit more activity with the tenure side of things. i'll show them to you in a second if they're going to go, but they're not. the 2-year note yield is there the inversion is still in place where long-term rates are below sh short-term ones. crude hovers around $100 a barrel you can see they're down about 0.75 ice brent crude down, 0.81 natural gas, 7.23. in crypto, you see bitcoin and ether trying to hold
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23,411 the last trade there. ether is down 2% it's been a outperformer as of late. green arrows around the world as well let's check in with our julianna tatelbaum who's live in london with the latest there. good morning, julianna. >> dom, good morning that positive sentiment you saw on wall street yesterday, that mammoth rally, seems to be having an impact on trade around the world. in asia overnight, it was green across the board in particular, the japanese market, nikkei hitting 2.2% higher hong kong, 1.1%. a little more modest in china where covid continues to be part of the market narrative. ending 8% lower. similar story in europe where we do have a lot of green arrows on the board. for the most part we're seeing stocks move higher the spanish market, the only
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exception, down just slightly. we're seeing investors hold on it was a strong session here in europe not as strong as you saw stateside. the german market gained 2.7% on the hopes we could see gas flows resume from russia into europe i want to also take you to fixed income markets where italian bonds are in focus this morning. all eyes on mario draghi this morning he addressed the senate in italy, and he did not tender his resignation he instead called for unity. the italian government is on the brink of collapse right now, but as of now, mario draghi has suggested he's going to remain in place and he's going to attempt to bring unity back to italy. as a result, you're seeing italian bond yields rally. the ten-year is trading around 3.3% dom, back to you. let's get a check on today's
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top tech story netflix, shrinking silvana henao is here with more. >> shares of netflix are higher after reporting it lost about 1 million subscribers in its most recent quarter that was far less than they had forecast back in april still, that's the first time in this country's history it's reported back-to-back quarterly subscriber losses. here's reed hastings on the call last night. >> we're executing really well on the content side. obviously "ozark," "stranger things," lots of titles, lots of things we're improving everything we do, the marketing, servicing, slowly that all pays off again, we're talking about, you
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know, losing 1 million instead of losing 2 million. so our excitement is tempered by, you know, less bad results >> other highlights from the quarter, netflix estimates it will add 1 million net new subscribers in the current corner versus street estimates it says it's acquiring animation studio animallogic as far as the supported tier, netflix says to expectthat option in early 2023 one major headwind and not just for netflix, currency problems the company is saying, quote, we have high exposure to this unprecedented appreciation of the u.s. dollar because nearly 60% of our revenue comes from outside the u.s., dom. it's something i'm sure we're going to continue to hear. >> silvana henao, thank you very
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much. the clock is ticking on the restart of the nord stream 1 pipeline dow for scheduled maintenance, with hopes it will start pumping natural gas to europe tomorrow but with western sanctions, leaders are debating an emergency energy plan, one that puts limits on bputin's limits o the block, a question on whether it could push the entire region off the proverbial gas cliff, so to speak let's send it out to our own brian sullivan again in langenfeld, germany, again. >> reporter: if the nord stream 1 pipeline does not start to
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reflow tomorrow or friday or the next couple of days at some significant level, then you're not going to have enough gas to basically run the german kmirk and the german government is probably going to move into what they call the emergency phase, when they'll have to effectively choose which companies or industries they choose are deemed critical enough to stay open there was a very positive sign that happened yesterday. some gas did flow through the nord stream 1. it's a pressure test, but it's a good siechblt overnight in iran, vladimir putin, who made his first overseas trip since launching his war this year, made some cops that gazprom does want to fulfill its contract to send gas, there could be even more maintenance problems, and i'm doing air quotes if you can't see me, to get another turbine. one was sent out to can to be prepared it's on its way back, hopefully
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tomorrow putin said, well, there's another turbine that may be a problem. siemens makes the turbine. it's at about 65%. it wants 80, preferably 90% minimum by november 1st to make sure people can heat their homes. and right now there is currently no gas flowing into germany by any pipeline, period, zero and with the recent heatwave, they're actually drawing down natural gas because while air-conditioning here, dom, is not as huge as overseas, they do use it, and they're drawing down grass and this is a critical reason there's a positive sign, the pressure test yesterday. coming up, we'll show you the four scenarios what could happen tomorrow with the nord stream 1
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pipeline and more importantly what they say the wall street market reaction may be i said at the beginning of the show, i think it had a positive impact on the markets yesterday, dom, and i think, likewise, if we don't get a turn-on, see an indication from putin, it could have the exact opposite. tomorrow, maybe one of the most important days for the u.s. and global stockmarkets of the year. >> an interesting story. thank you very much for that. let's get down to the markets. a solid turnaround with all three indices logging a 1% point gain in about a month. the founder and ceo of new street advisers and a cnbc contributor. della noe, you heard the report on what's going on with the energy in europe do you feel there was some positivity drifting around that story that a little gases with flowing around nord stream >> thank you for having me
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fascinating story from brian reporting over there the big thing i always focus on is earnings. i think there is a little positivity coming from that story. there's earnings all three indices are above their 50-day moving average. the nasdaq yesterday had its best performance move since june 24th the big part of that is how are they able to do that the net profit margins pro projecting out the next two quarters, showing that they're going to still be high you're seeing geopolitical things happening across the globe. i think the investors needed that, needed a solid story for us to actually have a positive day, and that's kind of what we did yesterday. we're showing a little bit early this morning, we're slightly announcing the gains, but we'll see how it plays out.
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>> dellaano, you sure sound positive now that being said, if i'm reading you correctly, what are you buying i mean what do you go into is it netflix, all clear, technology, oil and gas whaks is it >> 100% value. you have it below the five-year moving average group those are solid signs for people looking for value in the market. obviously we keep mentioning near term we're not raising the environment. as you mentioned, i'm still buying, raising cash, and we're holding onto our long-growth additions. energy's there and health care is there for investors but, you know, it's really more to be sign
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there's more economic backdrop that still spells potential trouble ahead. >> that's still a confusing market picture, it sounds like thank you very much. we appreciate it. >> thank you. when we come back on the show, much more on the european energy crisis, what it could mean not just in the u.s. but europe as well tony rice is going to be on later on netflix. talk about stepping over an extremely low bark, the shares are off. later on, call it a cathie wood closure. what she's doing in thfa oe cef twintling returns. we have a lot more ahead on "worldwide exchange" after this commercial break
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you need comcast business. technology solutions that put you ahead. get a great offer on internet and security, now with more speed and more bandwidth. plus find out how to get up to a $650 prepaid card with a qualifying bundle. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm brian sullivan here at the foundry in langenfeld, germany we're here at this particular place to talk about what happens to the pipeline matters to germany, all the global supply chains, and the u.s. economy and stockmarket as well. it's a very complicated story, a
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fluid story, i guess, pun intended, and a lot of possible outcomes what we did is take all the known research and aggregate it into four possible scenarios and their likely outcomes when the nord stream is expected to be turned on tomorrow number one, best case, it is turned on, and the flow is above the 40% level it was before it shut off managements probably rally, the euro strengthens i think that was a big part of what happened to the market yesterday. scenario two, we see the flow, but the flow started reduced, either 40% or less than where it was before you get a little bit of gas, but not really enough to fill the tanks. that's kind of a still let's wait and see, putin continues to play games with us, world on a string, markets may be flat. scenario three the nord stream does not start tomorrow, but there is a
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timeline given by gazprom and nord stream. we'll start friday, we'll start saturday there's an indication it can start. the markets may be a little wobbly on that scenario four, and this is the one we want to avoid scenario four, the nord stream pipeline does not restart, and there's no indication of a timeline of when it's going to happen everything we're reading, if that is the case, we could see global markets, u.s. market as well drop. the credit market spread widens and weed my have a sovereign debt crisis on our hands if that goes on long enough. that's enough of my opinion. let's get somebody who knows a lot more than me the analyst. he's co-founder and chief analyst at care yoes a really critical time to have you on thank you very much. we did get a bit of a pressure test on the nord stream one
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yesterday. a little bit of a flow what is your expectation in those scenarios about the one that is most likely to occur tomorrow >> well, i think you said it the suspense is on it's very hard to predict. of everything you laid out, i think i would bet on two or three. i would rule out one and rule out four, not very firmly, but i think the idea is to keep europe on its toes and provide support for ukraine. you want to break down the wall and support ukraine. it's two or three, a labor restart. >> you're saying some big
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things, antoine. why do you think scenario four is highly unlikely >> well, you know, it could obviously happen, but i think this is something that could have at its disposal in the event of a failure, support for ukraine. the idea is to supply pressure, erode the unity, drive a wedge between european countries like it did before in march the idea is not to punish or undermine the european economy just yet that would happen if european support existed and you would have a complete break in exports to punish europe and hurt the european population and undermine the european economies. >> and one of the reasons that
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we're here in this steel mill is because we're trying to connect the dots if the german government says, i'm sorry, we have to save gas for nursing homes and hospitals and homes in the winter, you have to shut down, if places like this place in langlangenfei forced to shut down, they make hydraulic gas also for pumping it's all kinds of components that's what seems to be at risk. the american market says why do you care you care because this is the fourth biggest economy in the world. and if we get a shutdown here, that's a seismic shock to the global markets, is it not? >> you're absolutely right i'm not sure we've fully appreciated how big a shock it is just yet.
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if we have a short supply from germany, obviously trying to get it to other sectors is going to be very strong we have to prioritize which sectors will get gas, which of the national consumers are going to be prioritized. the effects are very deep. it affects the rest of the world at large the rest of europe for sure, but the rest of the world. >> i know it's early out in the united states to put their head around that. the germany economy is not as big as the u.s. economy, but it's one of the biggest in the world. can you imagine if they twoent california and said, you have to shut down these, but not that. others elsewhere say how do you pick how do you know? antoine halff, thank you very much. we're hear in germany
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connecting the dots. it's a massive day for europe and really the world with the pipeline we'll talk about it with one of our favorite guests, toby rice, ceo of eqt the stock is red hot we're tellliray inside of a blast furnace. we do it for you, folks. we're back right after this. seamlessly around the world... you need more than technology. you need cdw who can help transform your organization with built for performance lenovo thinkpads. pre-configured for management flexibility and equipped with the intel evo platform. it's a massive day for europe os give your team effortless connectivity to stay focused wherever they work. fetch. lenovo makes seamless productivity possible. cdw makes it powerful. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it.
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movies three stock stories of the morning. first up, you've got cal maine foods as prices rose nearly 30%. the company says it saw higher feed costs in the quarter and expects pricing pressures and volatility to affect costs next year those shares up a percent premarket. stockmarket two, j.b. hunt transport. revenue rose 32% it's still navigating supply chain issues mostly at ports and on the rails, but believes customers are prepared to have a good second half of the year finally we're watching shares of ibm. it was one of the nine, only nine s&p 500 stocks that didn't get the memo about the big market rally yesterday as it fell more than 5% on the heels of earnings. this morning we're up one quarter of 1%.
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second quarter results on monday, but warned currency headwinds could hit revenues and the ceo spoke about the effect of the dollar with jim cramer on "mad money" last night. >> you can look at western europe, the united kingdom, japan. they're all countries we love to be in. we have some expenses in local currency, but a lot of the products we make are coming to the united states, so then there we suffer a profit issue >> big blue shaking things off. cathie wood suffering anotr ace.heblk ey we'll have that story coming up. we'll be right back.
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a little bit better. the dow is implied higher by 30 points, the s&p up by 4 points and the nasdaq up by 33 points, this after big gains in yesterday's session. let's get a check on this morning's top stories. silvana henao is here with more. >> it's one step closer to being approved by the senate lawmakers in that chamber voting 64-34 for that bill to clear a procedure real hurdle. final details are still being worked out the slim-down bill would provide nearly $50 billion to encourage chip companies to produce here in the u.s australia is launching its first review of the central bank in decades as it looks at a delay in hikes due to the recession. it could be the first major
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restructuring of the australian bank since the 1990s and cathie wood's ark invest is shutting down one of its funds. it launched in just december and includes one of the most transparent companies will close later this month according to a regulatory filing. dom, the shutdown marks the first closure for wood since she launched her firm back in 2014. >> an interesting note there, silvana. the index fund is no longer providing the index. that's one of the reasons. they cannot benchmark against anything anymore. now to a developing story out of europe. leaders drawing up emergency plans as questions remain whether a key lifeline for the region will resume its operations tomorrow. that's where we find brian sullivan on the ground in
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langenfeld, germany, tracking the latest developments and real world implications and impacts i'll send things over to you, brian. >> yeah, dom, the stories can be so big, so esoteric, so macro. this is a 60-year-old factory shoot anything but me. this is hot here it's about 1600 degrees. i want to tell you the story about the energy crisis. these are men and women whose jobs and livelihoods are at risk if the gas gets cut off or rationed it's not just here multiple this across germany, europe, the united states because of global supply chain implications this is not fearmongering. there have been reports,
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deutsche bank saying with a tap cut-off, gdp goes down 5%. p pariba could be down that was red hot i was doing that to save your behind literally these are things that go into the supply chain that the world needs. these are parts for huge pumping engines that power fracking and hydropower and things that we never think about. so what i do want you to think about, dom, is the people here at smeez cast that they're hoping they have not only enough heat to heat their homes u, but the place does not have a shutdown for a while, they can continue to be paid, put food on the table. this is the human story of the games that vladimir putin is playing with germany and all of europe, and we appreciate them
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letting us in to their workplace. >> there's certainly a human element there. it's hard to believe this kind of thing can happen in the world's fourth biggest economy and developed country as well. thank you very much for that. let's get to this morning's other big money movier netflix reportedly has lost 1 million subscribers, but that was less than the 2 million it had forecast to lose back in april. still, this is the first time in the company's history they've reported back-to-back subscriber losses netflix estimates it will add 1 million new netflix subscribers. third quarter earnings per share coming up short. and as far as the ad-supported
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tier, netflix said that's to be expected maybe in 2023 joining me is sara fischer of axios and also james of clock-wise capital maybe, sarah, we'll start with you with regard to the overall theme of netflix is this one you feel that maybe gets people more exciteden netflix as a company again, or is there so much work and competition it's going to take much longer? >> i think netflix avoided the fire, but they're still feeling the heat they have had the seat at the throne for so many years, dom, but i think it's become apparent that increased competition is really starting to eat at their lead the thing that would make investors hopeful is there are clear signs that the streaming ecosystem, the sandbox that
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netflix is playing in is really healthy and continuing to grow it used to be even if that was smaller, netflix captured the entire thing that made wall street really excited. now moving forward, i think it's clear we're not going to capture the entire thing they might try to present metrix that may make it seem they're in the clear winning path but the reality is, when they try to introduce their advertising tier in 2023, it's not very clear, at least to me, that they're going to have some sort of clear advantage from the outset disney has been doing advertising with hulu for so long they're the clear winner you have companies like peacock, who have then tire ad structure of nbcuniversal. the same with paramount plus i'm concerned about its future. >> james, maybe all of this has been priced in, right? this is a stock that has lost
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77% of its value, entering that earnings call yesterday. it's up about 66% now. it had been up it doesn't sound like some investors are convinced this story is one that can really turn things around on a more secular basis. >> right i think you have to separate between the market and netflix stock right now. remember this is a company based strictly on growth now you have a downward guidance, which would have been inconceivable. i also think you're seeing better appreciation of the meaner version of growth rates, which we've written about this year basically you have this huge pull forward and it's not that the growth rates have come down and opportunity has come down, but rather we're coming back to the original growth curves, for the
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tech sector more broadly as far as the techs are concerned, i agree it's tough. the ad wars are real when you think about the differentiation of netflix and amazon, facebook, and google, it's really not that much. you can argue netflix is more akin to the linear television. so i think the roads ahead are not that easy for netflix, even though you have a pop in the stock near term given the lower sentiment. >> may i follow up there when it comes to netflix, is it still -- is it a favorite of yours, or would you go somewhere el if you wanted that exposure to streaming content >> somewhere else. if we want streaming content, that's a company more like spotify. really what we see is a bifurcation between platforms
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and surfaces we think platform will command evaluation, amazon, facebook, google, as well as spotify, which is morphing into the economy. netflix, on the other hand, is a service. so when you think about the longer term valuations of these companies, i think that services will command lower valuations than what we've seen in the past, that's netflix, and then others will command more premium valuation. we're not involved in that we are involved in spotify i think that near term, netflix, you know, obviously the stocks should benefit from that. >> sara, we oar going to give you the last word here for the longest time we talked about content is king and netflix had all of it, and it was producing all this great stuff and putting all this money behind it. how much more money can they put on it, and can content get them
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out of this hole >> they said content will not get them out of the hole it's going to remain in the same zip code is the word they used if you think about companies like disney, they're spending $32 billion in content netflix in my opinion is going to have to figure out how do they increase their revenue, drive more investment into the content if they want to be truly, truly competitive in the streaming wars yesterday reed hastings credited season four of "stranger things" for its growth bump. over than that, what's the next biggest thing you coalesced around with your friends they're going to have to produce hit after hit after hit. >> the debate rages on sara fischer, james cakmak thank you very much. coming up, an interview with
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[ no audio ] >> i think we lost brian sullivan over there. let me see if we can get the shot back up brian, are you with us here? >> no? >> okay. we're going to try to get brian back we're having some issues right now. roh oskind of see if we can work thugthe and come back after this break and see if we can get that connection back up again. we'll see you in a couple of minutes. how do we show that we'll stand tall through the storms? nah. (thunder) how do we make our clients feel secure and- ugh... not lions. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people. people who've been looking after people for over 170 years.
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this precarious position what germany has started doing is importing liquefied natural gas. this is a huge opportunity for companies. let's bring one in, the biggest producer of natural gas. ceo toby rice, a proponent for natural gas. toby, everybody wants to bury the former chancellor angela merkel they say germany became addicted to putin's gas to their credit they're trying to get lg up and running, they're buying floating gas ships. how big of an opportunity is germany in the near and medium term for american gas producers? >> germany is a great example of how countries can receive new information, recognize the bad packets that countries were going down, and redirect to a better solution, and that better solution for their energy is going to be getting their energy
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from america we have an amazing solution to offer the world, not just europe we can increase our own exports in the united states by a recommended 50 a day that is an opportunity to quad grouple our exports, and that's going to have a tremendous influence to providing energy security to our allies around the world. >> it's going to take a couple of years to get a hard built terminal but what the chancellor said, he secured the only four lng ships in the world he got all four, and a fifth may be on the way. do we have the u.s. infrastructure, the pipeline, the export capability, toby, to give germany, poland, and europe all the natural gas they want, get them off of russia and putin
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longer term? >> the good news is we have one of the hardest things to create. that is, we've got the natural gas resources here under our feet in appalachia, we've got natural gas reserves that are equivalent and larger than russia the question is can we get the gas to market. the only challenge we face to getting this to our allies around the world is getting more pipelines and more lng infrastructures being built in the united states. it's been a challenge for us in the past, but we're really excited to announce today that we received some polling results from americans, and the results are very clear over 70% of americans support increased natural gas production here in the united states. over 73% of americans understand and support the build-out of more natural gas infrastructure so we can build these pipelines and energy facilities, and the
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voters are ready to take action by a 33% margin. voters say they're more likely to vote for a political candidate that will support increasing natural gas production so we've got the resource and support of the american people now it's putting pieces together and get this infrastructure built and getting this energy to our allies >> this is maybe the most political of centers that we're talking about, not, just, by the way, the u.s it's also, as i found out first hand, toby, political here because of places like this at risk of shutting down because of their policies getting addicted to putin and he's playing games and getting influenced are you getting encouraged by any communication you've heard from the white house in the short term, they clearly seem to be softening nair stance. >> yeah, we've heard some conflicting messages, but it's
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been very encouraging to see president biden has increased the commitment to supply europe with energy. listen, this administration is going to reflect the will of the people, and with these polling results, it shows there's an overwhelming of support from americans to increase european gas production, it's a sign the support is going to be there, and we'll meet the demand for natural energy. >> a place like this, they cannot run on renewable power. they need the natural gas to fire the turbines to melt the steel at 1700 degrees. no other fuel will do that toby rice, eqt i appreciate it, my friend dom, i'm going to leave it with that. germany is a leader in renewables, and they're doing a great job in many ways the reason we're here is there are certain industries like this
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that like it or not require certain types of fuels to run their business you shut that off, you shut this place off, you shut germany offing and you shut the global supply chain off and that's why we're here in germany today and tomorrow to talk about the nord stream 1 pipeline appreciate it. >> brian sullivan, thank you very much for the update there complicated story for sure. let's turn back to narths and bring in the president and ceo of diamond hill. heather, this whole market right now seems to be one that's trying to figure out whether the next leg is higher or lower. do you feel construconative d constructive, or more negative >> thanks, dom they're priced for a pretty serious recession. we can look to the other side of that and say what is the
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long-term business power. >> if that's the case, where are you finding those? is it stock-specific or are there certain industries that stand out to you >> there's a couple. first of all, companies with strong advantages where it's easier to forecast the earnings power of these businesses because it's easier to know how they're going to do relative to their competitors. businesses that i would call the core underlining of the economy, things like caterpillar, where they're manufacturing the equipment needed to move things forward in the economy as well as with regard to my namele. that's all a critical part of everything that underlies the growth and the economy coming out of the technology sector then we're also seeing opportunity and things like union pacific where it's the opportunity for those companies to be able to do well when anything sells so it doesn't matter which parts
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of the economy are doing well as long as anyone needs to move anything on the west coast union past success there. >> i think industrials and caterpillar. i wonder i'd like to get your take on whether or not you feel netflix is a buy with inturin six value and whether or not the banks are, given the earnings that we've seen. >> i definitely think there's a lot of companies that, you know, we'll see a ton of earnings coming out over the next few days while i can't comment specifically on netflix, we love to find companies that are really a fundamental part of the economy, similar to what i was talking about before at diamond hill, we've been interested in google as an example as a company that has very strong, long-term power and growth. >> heather, thank you. th de got to get you back for mo atoes it for us on
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and chipotle, union battle it's july 20, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site at times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. you're going to see right now some green arrows. these are modest advances, but we'll take it after a day like we saw yesterday the nasdaq up by 43 points of course, this came after a day where the dow was up 750 points. and, by the way, it was the smallest of the leaders. it was up by 2.4%. the leader was up by 2.75, and the nasdaq up by 3.1%. we take a look
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