not that i'm drinking a lot of them lately. not missing much either. >> see you on monday. >> thank you, have a great weekend. stay cool, everybody thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. the dow, s&p and nasdaq all under pressure but still on track for weekly gains the most important hour of the trading day starts right now welcome to "closing bell." i'm melissa lee in for sara eisen. we're off session lows but have sizeable losses in the s&p 500 we're down by 1.3% the nasdaq has seen the brunt of the pain down 2.2% with the wipeout across the board on social media stocks. russell small caps down 2% coming up an exclusive interview with sam bankman-fried with the outlook on cryptocurrencies and his big stake in robinhood let's get more on the markets and bring in lori from rbc capital markets who just lord

h lowered her s&p 500 price target you joined your counterparts in terms of lowering your estimates for the s&p for the year and next year and lowering your targets. what was behind the move finally? >> look, i think we were surprised how far markets broke to the downside earlier. we thought we would stick in this growth scare range but unfortunately this last batch of fed actions took the market down a notch lower and brought recession onto the table we needed to do some hard thinking about what the earnings outlook would look like. we did make a pretty sizeable move on our earnings forecast for next year. i'd say we're significantly below consensus right now in terms of those earnings forecasts, but we do think that stocks are still a buy in here we think the bottoming process has started. i don't have absolute conviction that we've already seen it in june, i think it's possible. but i like seeing a little red on the screen today.

as we looked back over the last week or so, we heard a lot of investors saying let's rip off the band-aid, reset earnings expectations and markets can rally back we had a pretty good start to this reporting season and stocks were rallying. i think if you want to rip the band-aid off, we need to get a little bit more pain in the share prices. >> you mentioned that this is sort of an average of the various scenarios that you had been thinking about that could happen this year, lori i'm wondering what the range of scenarios are from really bad to the best case. >> so we have a number of scenarios that point us to the 4100, 4200 type area and that's where our target came in we had one of our sentiment recovery scenarios that can get you close to the 4900 type level. that's an outlier in the forecast we also have some that are stuck down around 3800, 3900 and i think that underscores that there is a binary range of outcomes in here one of the things that we said, melissa, even sort of putting our targets aside for a moment

which are in the more optimistic camp, if we really wanti to find a market bottom sometime before the end of the third quarter, it's going to hinge on the idea that we're getting a short, shallow, relatively quick recession that i hear a lot of investors talk about if we're looking at a recession and economic downturn that drags deep into next year, i think it will be tough for stocks to find a bottom and our target may not be achievable. but we're taking the optimistic scenario and think consumers and corporations are starting from a position of strength here. we think companies will be able to manage through to some extent on the earnings side and we see a positive setup i'd be laying if i didn't tell you there was a binary range of outcomes that could be in front of us. >> it sure does seem like it on the street, lori how closely are you following europe and what's going on there in terms of how deep that recession could be, the pain that could be felt across europe >> we are following it but i'll tell you, melissa, my job is to call the u.s. equity

market one of the things we talked about in the report we put out this morning, we still like u.s. equities as a safe haven trade one of the things we have noticed that keeps limiting some of the downside on u.s. equities this year, and i know it's been a rough year but a lot of people thought they would go down a bit more than they have. one of the reasons that has happened is because when you gauge recession odds and economic impacts from what's coming, it does seem to be worse in europe than the u.s so i think that it does matter from an equity markets' perspective, i'm going to be a little self-centered and say what's bad for europe ends up being good for the u.s. >> i get the relative value in terms of the u.s. being a safety trade, but in terms of germany being an export market for technology and specifically software seems like it would have more exposure to that that's not concerning in terms of how it impacts earnings >> it is it absolutely is one of the things we have talked about, not so much in the report we put out today but a week ago is areas of the market that are most sensitive in terms of their

earnings reversion trends to that stronger dollar we've highlighted things like consumer staples it has very, very high sensitivity to the stronger u.s. dollar and so we'd be definitely picking our spots and have some of that in mind. frankly, melissa, one of the things we said this morning is we don't think we've seen enough downward revisions yet the upward revision is about 37% of revisions to the upside right now. in downward resvision cycles, that stat typically falls to 10 to 30% so things like the stronger dollar and international weakness are things that will contribute to the further ratcheting down of those earnings expectations. >> lori, great to see you, thanks. >> thanks for having me. >> let's get to kristina partsinevelos at the nasdaq with a closer look at the fallout from snap's disappointing quarter. >> it's a snap blood bath yesterday and today with twitter adding to the ugliness

both companies are triggering declines snap is down i checked over 35% -- look at that, 38% driven by a slowdown in advertising and lack of financial guidance for the current quarter because visibility remains incredibly challenging. meta platforms and alphabet are falling in sympathy. both are set to post earnings next week. along with mega players like microsoft, amazon and apple whose shares are down 15% year to date. the biggest laggards are lucid group, align technology, datadog and intuitive surgical after missing on the top and bottom line on their earnings report. next week's fed meeting and cyclical fears are weighing on chip stocks today. amd, intel, micron all hovering, look at that, almost all 4% lower today. when we get fearful, the defensive names come back into

play american electric, exelon, mondelez next week is a huge week for tech earnings and should give investors some clarity on the overall demand environment as the sector is already slowing across the board. >> kristina partsinevelos. coming up next, roger ferguson on whether he expects the central bank to raise interest rates by 100 basis points next week in order to curb inflation. later, an exclusive interview with sam bankman-fried. it's his first appearance since taking a big stake in robinhood. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. ok, let's talk about those changes to your financial plan. bill, mary?

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let's check out today's stealth mover. ppg industries, which is a top performer in the s&p 500 here's some color from the report the company benefiting from a jump in selling prices, record quarter revenue in its automotive refinish business the stock is up almost 4% right now. well, the wild card in the market next week of course is wednesday's fed decision while many investors are expecting a 75 basis point hike, they are also preparing for some surprises. joining us now roger ferguson. roger, great to have you back. >> thanks. nice to be here.

>> you're expecting 75 why 75 and not 100 as some other fed officials have said? >> i'm expecting 75 for a couple of reasons one is there are some mixed signals about the economy. some are more qualitative, some quantitative the recent report for consumers suggested that maybe inflation expectations are coming down just a little bit. finally, while there have been some voices that we've heard suggesting 100 basis points, i've also heard a number of voices, including president bostic from atlanta, mentioning 75 and his argumentation about not reeling the market is more likely the consensus point of view while it's a close call and there will be discussion of 100 basis points, i think 75 is the more likely outcome. >> what's your take on treasury

yields and where they stand right now, roger it's been a roller coaster ride. we certainly had a lot of volatility when it comes to u.s. treasuries specifically. the 10-year yield is at 2.77%. if borrowing costs come down, the fed is trying to dampen demand so it's working against the fed. the fed doesn't have the tools to fight the 10-year yield, though, does it? so what does it do >> three points to make. one, it has been extremely volatile i think the volatility is a variety of uncertainties about incoming data. we see a very strong labor report inflation continues to be an issue. on the other side some softening starts to emerge here and there. we see different commentary from fed officials. i think there's an uncertainty about future guidance, so to speak. we'll see what chair powell has to say about what the future

holds in terms of fed rates. i think all of that is feeding into a sense of uncertainty in the markets, looking for clarity of direction i think markets know the fed is going to continue to raise rates, but people are also starting to talk about some softening. you've seen stories of slowing down in hiring, et cetera. so there are these cross currents that are being reflected in the fixed income markets right now. >> what's your take on where the economy stands at this moment, roger, given all the sort of conflicting data that we've gotten, some might say confusing at times the treasury market is telling us with the inversion that's happening that we are on the path or maybe in a recession currently. so what's your take? >> my take is as follows we've got many different things, as you point out consumers are still relatively strong we continue to see the most recent retail sales reports, positive overall numbers when adjusted for inflation,

things appear to be slowing a little bit so that's the other part of the story. obviously the labor force is still very strong and wage growth is strong so we have those things driving forward momentum in the markets. having said that, the so-called wealth effect, the value particularly of equities under pressure as you and your colleagues are reporting, so i think that leans the other way i think we're seeing ceos through some of their words and actions indicating perhaps a little bit of concern about the future, slowing back on their hiring a little bit, so there are these cross currents and finally a point that the united states is not appear island by itself it is the most important economy in the world we still are suffering from supply chain issues emerging out of china and questions about other parts of the world, europe going into recession weighing on us a little bit as well. so there are a lot of cross currents right now

some elements of strength and some headwinds, all of which create this kind of uncertainty and indeed confusion as you use the word. >> you know, roger, you just sort of painted a picture and put together a lot of different anecdotes that we've all been focusing on here at cnbc, whether it comes to hiring freezes that may not show up in employment numbers, ceos feeling a little bit more cautious i'm wondering how closely the fed follows these sorts of anecdotes. eventually they become data. but the fed is data dependent. so when we're hearing all of these stories that seem to point to a slowdown that's going on and perhaps a recession, how in tune does the fed take that versus what they see in the rear-view mirror. >> certainly the hard data are very important but as you point out that is a reflection of recent history often when you get to the table some of the presidents will report on what their contacts

are telling them there's a whole survey that the fed has historically undertaken known as the beige book. so both things play in as they are trying to get a feel for a situation that is evolving relatively rapidly at the end of the day they are data dependent so the hard data really matter, but they also know that those anecdotes may become the data of tomorrow and so they will certainly be attuned to it. that might be another reason why on the 100 basis points versus 75, some might err or move to the side of the 75, hearing these anecdotes that may suggest things really are slowing just a little bit already >> all right, roger, great to speak with you and get your take appreciate your time >> thank you >> roger ferguson. and coming up on "fast money," carter worth says a big breakdown is coming.

that's ahead at 5:00 let's get a check on the markets. the dow is down by 0.6 of a point, s&p 500 is down 1.15% bitcoin is lower today but it has rallied roughly 15% over the last month up next, sam bankman-fried joins us exclusively to discuss a crypto cebk omacand whether he thinks a bitcoin rally can last. if you have this... and you get this... you could end up with this... unexpected out-of-pocket costs. so if you're on medicare, or soon to be, consider this. an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. and what it doesn't pay for, like deductibles and copays, could add up to thousands of dollars.

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welcome back check out some of today's top search tickers on cnbc.com snap taking the top spot followed by the 10-year treasury yield, tesla, verizon and twitter. a pair of hospital stocks delivering very healthy returns for investors today. find out what's behind these big moves straight ahead. later, sam bankman-fried reacts to the first ever crypto insider trading case and whether more cases could be on the horizon.

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call that contract costs in june were 22% lower than they were at the start of the quarter, with staff recruitment and retention improving. tenet also seeing supply costs making for a big rally the group had been under pressure after universal health warned on lower inpatient volumes last month the staffing firms are really getting crushed on the prospect of tougher contracting with hospitals. cross country coming off just a new high yesterday, melissa. today down like 17% there. >> all right, bertha, thank you. bertha coombs. take another check on where we stand in the markets just about 34 minutes left to go the s&p 500 down by 44 points, 1.4%, nasdaq down by 1.9%. up next, sam bankman-fried will join us for his first cnbc interview since revealing his 8% stake in robinhood.

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bitcoin may be up this week but its prices plunged the last several weeks losing nearly a quarter of this value. two victims have been voyager and blockfi. voyager filed for chapter lesson bankruptcy and blockfi announced it was cutting 20% of its staff. ftx ceo sam bankman-fried swooped in to bail out the two firms. they are giving blockfi $250

million. joining us for a "closing bell" exclusive is ftx ceo sam bankman-fried. sam, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> you've been a little bit busy, huh? >> yeah, it's been a crazy month. >> yeah, to say the least. you've been on a buying spree in a very, very short amount of time you deployed billions of dollars of assets across the industry scooping up troubled firms, sam. a lot of people have called you the savior of crypto, the patron saint of crypto but also john peer point morgan. i wonder if you agree with any of these names >> i think there is some similarity its and some differences. but in the end i think there weren't very many people who were going to be positioned and willing to step in during the crisis and during the credit crunch and credit crisis part of this downturn. we felt like the most important

thing that we could do was to help stop contagion from spreading and backstop customer assets. >> is there any sort of master plan that you have when you're bailing out firms, buying firms, extending credit to firms, buying stakes in firms i mean do these pieces all fit together in some way >> not necessarily you know, i think that obviously we'll figure out if there are things that we can do to grow our business but that wasn't the primary perspective. we were willing to lose a little bit on these if that's what it took and the primary criteria was just where are their customer-facing businesses in the credit sector that are positioned where we really could help them get through this crisis that was the primary criteria. anything else strategic there for us was secondary >> i was wondering, sam, if you think we're going to look back

on this summer, summer of '22, and enthusiastic that's when the industry changed a lot of the excesses that happened that caused the damage will change. will lending get a lot tighter will certain controls be put in place, maybe regulation, what do you think? >> yeah, i think this is going to be one of the turning points. i think there are going to be a number of in different ways. i hope it will, i'm optimistic that it will we do need to have a safer industry already some strides have been made just since last month in that direction but more generally we need to be moving towards a world in which there is transparency especially around customer assets and in which the credit sector is able to manage risk appropriately and responsibly i think we've done a lot of work on risk engines for ftx and our exchange we might see some of that creep

into the otc lending space as well. >> do you think that what has happened is in part due to individual firms' lack of, i don't know, lending standards and compliance or was it an industry-wide problem? was it a number of firms making the same sorts of mistakes >> it really depends different cases were different some examples were poor risk management policies and maybe even worse on their part other cases it was mostly an industry thing i think when you look at blockfi as one example, that was a case where they had reasonable risk management policies in place to minimize any losses from the crash, despite having troubled firms on their credit side, they had enough collateral to really minimize the downside from that. and so i think that's one example. but i think there are other

examples where it was much more reasonable and responsible going into the crash so they were going to be exposed in almost any situation. >> do you see regulation ramping up because of what's happened? >> yeah, i think so. and i think that we are already in position where regulation was going to be ramping up but i think if anything, this is going to accelerate that process and underscores the need to have federal oversight of the crypto industry >> i'm wondering what your outlook is i know you're a long-term believer, but in terms of your portfolio. for instance, blockfi was valued at its peak, $3 billion, something like that. you got pennies on the dollar. so i'm curious do you think a firm like blockfi, using that as an example, ever returns to that peak valuation given that there are certain things in the industry that might change going forward, especially lending criteria if that changes, doesn't that change the profit profile of a blockfi? >> yeah, i think it absolutely

could change that. i don't know for sure what level it will return to, in terms of value and valuation. it wasn't the primary criteria that mattered to us during this. but yeah, and i do think that that's going to have impact on some of these businesses at the very least there is going to be some sort of capital and marge encost to requiring a reasonable amount of collateral. some of these businesses already were others very much were not. i think the ones that were not are going to have to find a way to run a more sustainable business ultimately. >> how many more opportunities do you see in this industry, sam? i'm wondering if you have a dollar amount in mind in terms of what you're willing and planning to deploy or is that an open-ended amount and you'll buy what you think is worth it >> you know, it is somewhat open-ended and it's going to be an adaptive process and depend on the details

we do have some sort of sense of what a ballpark could be i think that we have some sense of what we would be expecting to do, what would be more of a stretch. we'll have to see exactly what happens but we could certainly see ourselves spending some number of hundreds of millions beyond what we have thus far and in some cases more than that, although obviously eventually there is a limit to how much spare cash we have at the ready. >> so hundreds of millions or maybe more than that i'm wondering, sam, a lot of people who love crypto love it because it's free market, love it because it's decentralized and they see irony in you stepping up and having so many tentacles in so many firms and maybe even more firms, you might spend even more money on various opportunities here how do you answer those critics? is there some truth to the notion that sbf is centralizing

in some way the crypto industry? >> i think what i'd say is what we can do is healthy for the industry i think it helps it get on its feet and charge forward confidently. we would love other people to be doing this we would love other people to be coming in, providing capital to those in need, bailing them out. we tried we talked to a lot of potential partners about getting them involved in some of these things ultimately, i think, we found that there weren't that many people who were excited to jump in in messy circumstances. frankly to be able to do this effectively, you have to be willing to take the risk of some amount of loss you have to be willing to do deals that you might lose money on that was a sticking point for a lot of people here i don't think there's any value provided if you're not willing to do that but we're not trying to have a monopoly on this or anything like that, we would love other people to be splitting this work. >> oh, i totally get that maybe

other people don't have the fortitude either emotionally or financially to take the same sorts of risks as you, sam, but that doesn't change the end result, and that is that your firm through ftx and ftx alameda research, your firm has tentacles in so many parts of the industry and that you are a major player or are becoming an even bigger player so is there any risk in you being the center or becoming more of a center of the crypto industry who would have thought that the collapse of luna was going to be a trigger for so many different firms' troubles? >> yeah. i mean, you know, it's possible that we'll become more central in the industry, that we'll become a bigger player there i think the way we see it, the biggest factor here is just stopping contagion and backstopping customer balance sheets

we can't force other people to come in and provide capital. it's not in our power to make other people play a role in this industry we'll do what has to be done and i think that is the right thing to do and i think it's way better to stop contagion than to be taking a step back here but the best would be if other people joined us and we'd love them to. >> all right i want to get to political donations. you're a very active in the political scene. you've said in the past that you were going to spend a billion dollars ormore on the 2024 elections. i'm not sure how active you are in the midterms. i wonder how you pick which candidates you're donating to and is regulation of the crypto industry a major part of how you decide who gets what >> so the first thing i'll say is i think that that quote ended up getting taken a little out of context. a billion was more the maximum

that i could see and likely substantially less but the other thing that i would say is most of the political contributions that i've made, they don't have anything to do with crypto or with my day job they're looking at people who might be champions at helping to prevent the next pandemic, getting us prepared for what could come in a way we were not for covid and still are not today. >> okay. and one more political sort of question would you like -- do you like what the s.e.c. is doing these days and i'm asking you because with the announcement of the first-ever crypto insider trading case, part of this was the s.e.c. said that nine of the 25 tokens allegedly traded in this alleged scheme were securities coinbase has said in a statement we don't trade -- we don't list securities so there might be some confusion on the part of the s.e.c. in terms of what it should be regulating and what it shouldn't be regulating. i'm wondering what you think of the s.e.c.

when gary agagensler was first appointed, he taught a blockchain course at the m.i.t he's got to be a friend of the industry i'm not sure what you think now? >> i don't have details thoughts on those there are tokens in the crypto industry that are securities and some are not i think in the end what this is all going to depend on is coming out with really comprehensive regulatory frameworks for crypto that can provide federal oversight. i'm optimistic we'll see that from the s.e.c. or ftc or both i think that would be great and healthy for the industry i think that's ultimately what my judgment will rest on, them getting to a point that there is a framework that they have released for crypto. if they could get there, i would be excited for them to provide that oversight so long as it is a workable framework that protects customers

as of now the answer is we'll have to see what happens >> okay. sam, thanks for joining us we appreciate it >> thank you >> sam bankman-fried of ftx. snap slammed but it's not the only stock getting slammed by ad spending fears that story plus american express charging higher and investors hanging up on verizon when we take you inside the market zone.

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down these crucial moments of the trading day, plus leslie picker and julia boorstin. barb, i want to kick it off with you and get your take on the market day and market week we're still on pace for a positive week, even though we're seeing selling today. >> i have to say i'm a little disappointed in today's action but not surprised. i think the market continues to be fragile given all the uncertainty, when inflation peaks, how we're seeing economic growth slowing in so many categories, whether it's housing, commodity prices off, wages are moderating, job postings are down. there's more pauses in hiring in the all-important tech sector. so i think there's a lot of nervousness out there. but people are waiting to see what happens we've now got about 20% of the s&p 500 reporting. 70% have beat earnings and the misses have not with the exception of a new notable misses, they have not been bad it looks like a lot of the market is discounting an awful lot of bad news already, so this

is not unexpected because i think we'll continue to have volatility but my guess is we put the low in at the markets. this 9% rise since the low levels in june is going to be -- is putting some good -- >> lows of the markets let's get to american express, the best performer in the dow today after beating wall street's profit and revenue estimates thanks to record spending on entertainment and travel, including a big increase in business travel the company raising its full-year revenue forecast leslie picker joins us now leslie, recession fears. we've heard all the fears from the big bank ceos. the tone from amex seems a lot more positive. >> well, it really comes down to the type of consumer we're talking about here, melissa. the ceo was asked about this on the call and he basically said it's as simple as just our customers have more money to spend so the impact of things like inflation, of other

concerns surrounding the economy not so big of a factor for the people who are using amex cards for spending they got this massive tailwind from the big boone in travel and enter statainment spending. they saw the effects of this during the analyst call, a lot of analysts were asking whether this is a pull forward that would normalize throughout the rest of the year, but he said basically we don't see that happening. we see continued strength. and we don't see a recession for the next few quarters, so somewhat different from what we heard from the big ceos of the big banks last week and earlier this week because they look at more of an aggregated picture of spending in the economy. >> it's amazing that he said he doesn't see slowdown if you look, spending rose to a

record up 50%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. barbara, i don't know if you buy that, if you buy what the ceo is saying, not to disparage the ceo and his own forecasting, but to think the consumer is in a better place and will keep your spending as they are facing headwinds of a recession, that seems extremely optimistic. >> well, it is the question all investors are trying to answer through this earnings report you had the banks report last week jpmorgan even though jamie dimon is trying to prepare everybody for what may lie ahead, when you raise interest rates as quickly as the fed is usually does not mean good things for the consumer but the consumer is very, very strong, not only because of jobs and wages but tremendous savings. and you look at even housing the vast majority are 3% fixed rate mortgages, there's huge leverage potential there so the fact that american express -- what intrigued me is

they raised their estimates of revenue growth going forward a full 5 percentage points that is huge they went to 23 to 25% they're looking at their book and they know -- they are not new to this business, they know what these trends mean so that tells me a lot that they are pretty confident that consumers will keep spending one other point too which i found interesting on the business spending, international and business was up hugely, business travel i'm talking about was up probably over 200%, but it's still only 60% of pre-pandemic levels. that is a lot of room for growth as we know, businesses are trying to find their way back. how do we do a hybrid workweek, what do we do, so i think that still has a lot of potential to continue to power things higher, at least for american express. >> axp up 2.1% let's move on to ad spending concerns, a big focus on wall street snap plunging after missing on

the top and bottom line due to slowing demand twitter partially blaming its decline on ad industry headwinds and paramount global is underperform to neutral. julia boorstin joins us. julia, it seems like at least investors are taking all these things as red flags for the entire ad sector, particularly the heavyweights >> lots of red flags, but it's unclear, melissa, how many of these issues are worse for the three companies you just mentioned than they will be for the likes of meta and google, alphabet, which both report next week i would just point out that snap and twitter are in the same boat in a couple of ways. one is that they're smaller than google and meta so they might be sort of the first digital ad spend that companies cut so the question is whether they are the first cut, maybe the goolgz and metas of the world

are more insulated because they're larger and more diversified. in terms of paramount, one reason they cut paramount is that streaming advertising has not collapsed as much as digital advertising. with digital advertising, it's really easy to start and stop spending tv advertising tends to be baked in and locked in months and months in advance, so we might see that being more of a lagging indicator. remember, paramount owns cbs the other thing to keep in mind is the streaming wars. though paramount does have some ad-supported streaming platforms which are either free or less expensive, the question is how many different streaming services will consumers want to pay for when they're under more inflationary pressure. >> julia, thank you. let's get to verizon now, the biggest dow loser on pace for its worst day since 2008 after missing wall street's profit

estimates. this just a day after at&t lowered its free cash flow guidance in part because customers are taking longer to pay their bills. so, julia, what's the reason for this guidance cut? >> verizon did not have the same problem that at&t had with customers taking longer to pay their bills. the issue with verizon is that they're really having a hard time adding more customers it's an incredibly competitive landscape. they added only 12,000 monthly phone subs analysts expected 167,000 so the business is not growing the way that both they and investors had hoped. they're competing. the margins are under pressure as they're offering free phones and trying to get people to sign up. >> julia, thanks twitter in the positive right now. major averages still positive for the week and the month. joining us now, barry knapp. barb doran, who is with us too, also says the lows have put in

why? we haven't seen any big capitulation that gives us the all clear sign. >> well, we did in some ways we have a very similar situation to what happened in 2011 inasmuch as investors became so defensively positioned that the demand for portfolio protection, the premium you paid for out of the money puts, so-called skew, just went to very low levels because people raised cash you saw the same sort of thing with correlation getting high, meaning people were closet indexing and hugging the benchmark, so there was a significant derisking of portfolios for sure. first of all, we expected the first half to be difficult as we converged. last year was the aberration, not the first half of this year.

but we've reached what i call twin peaks we've had peak inflation i realize the cpi was higher than the previous month on a year-on-year basis but when you look through the components of inflation, service sector inflation is primarily driven by housing and wages. those both clearly look like they have peaked food price inflation, energy price inflation has come down sharply. so pretty confident inflation is coming off, it's just a question of how much and how fast but the markets will ride that downtrend. then we've reached peak hawkishness. focus on a fed pivot go back to '94 and the actual pivot was in june of '95 but peak hawkishness came after a 75-point basis rate hike we've passed that point. so if you look at september 23

as a proxy, they were 3.25 back in april when the curve first inverted >> barry -- barry, thanks for your time. we're having audio issues with your mic so appreciate your time on this friday let's get back to barbara doran who is still here. barbara, what struck me is that barry agrees with you that we've seen the lows. let's say that scenario is right. what do the markets look like from here to the end of the year what sectors do you want to be in >> well, it's interesting because i think in the short term this kind of volatility will continue where we just had a great recovery week and today it all fell apart again. next week we'll start to see some very important earnings we've got a number of things next week. we've got the fed. it looks like 75 bps is what looks likely you've got a gdp number and some

of the big faang names reporting, so people will wanting to see what are they seeing about demand. we have some high-profile announcements like apple saying we're not going to hire for now. what does that mean? people want to know how deep do they see their demand diving i've been saying and i still think despite this run month to date, consumer discretionary, because a lot of great names have gotten crushed and also the mega cap tech names that we've talked about, they're up 12% this month alone, consumer discretionary 15%. and so there's likely given this market, you know, agitation and nervousness, a little bit of a pullback there but on any pullback, i would be buying and that goes for apple's reporting next week and a lot is being talked about there but we're buying long-term growth franchises. >> it seems like a high stakes week next week big cap tech is the market effectively, barbara, as we know

we have the likes of an alphabet and apple and represents the concerns over the ad spending and concerns about the consumer. so it's really high stakes here. which one are you looking at most closely >> well, i really wanting to see more on the ad spending. my reaction to the snap earnings, yes, it's a broader slowdown there was a survey of the big ad agencies and it looks like ad growth slows 1 to 3% this year it depends on your macro view in terms of recession but snap has very particular issues they're small. julia boorstin was making that point earlier. i think they have a couple of hundred thousand advertisers versus meta's 10 million or google's 10 million. and so they're much more vulnerable i think they're losing share probably to tiktok and the big guys so i want to see meta, i want to see google, i want to see what they're seeing on the ad slowdown and what that says >> all right, barbara, thank you. pleasure talking to you.

barbara doran of bda capital. let's take a check on the markets as we have 20 minutes left to the closing bell the nasdaq is down 1.9%. s&p finishing less than a percent so rising into the close. i'll see you in about an hour on "fast money. meantime, let's hand it over to scott wapner in "overtime. [ bell ringing ] melissa, thank you very much welcome, everybody, to this friday in "overtime. i'm scott wapner, we're just getting started right here at post 9 new york stock exchange we get right to our talk of the tape as well the countdown to a blockbuster week for your money. earnings for apple, amazon, microsoft and more a critical fed meeting followed by our interview with jeffrey gundlach i hope you'll join us then with all of that looming, will there be tech troubles in the days ahead it's been on