and becoming what they should be which is more of a commercial based bank built on the deposits. >> i am going to have to leave it there. sound like i'm having an issue with your microphone. we are running out of time anyway. we will see back. that is dori wiley, commerce street holdings the ceo and president of primary natural resources. that does it for us. have a great weekend. i will see you back at this desk monday pick fast money is now. right now, we are days away from one of the biggest weeks for earnings this quarter, combined $1 trillion set to report. how you should trade. the great rate reversal yields untenured falling to their lowest level since may. they have either further to fall. we dive into charts to find out what is behind call. crypto jumping more than a percent this week. of more than 20% for its best week since august.

is the bottom and crypto bellwether for the client dollars here with some answers. this assessed many live from the nasdaq market site. we start off with a countdown to a mega week for the cops. apple, amazon, microsoft, and meta-report earnings next week as mark flipped around a rare month this year, even with today's pullback, the nasdaq is up more than 7%. the best month since november of 2020. the s&p and dow tracking for their best month of the year. next week's reports give traders relief or should we brace for a relapse? what do you think? estimates have come down a lot. >> is a two easy to say wherever rates go, that is where stocks are going to go? i should say the inverse, sorry. if rates continue to lower, i think tech will continue to move higher. when you look at the performance level, apple has

outperformed the rest of the group unemotionally, on a yearly, and everything you possibly imagine. and they are the only ones that don't rely on ad revenue. for them it is a services business. people felt the stock was going much slower. rates go lower, tech goes higher. >> they are business reliant on the consumer and consumer spending. where do you stand on an apple for instance? we have all sorts of data points. consumer is still standing. ast and american express told us the consumer spending like mad. spending on travel and airline. seagate said consumers are spending spending on other things, not technology-related things we are part of. we on this? >> we heard that from target and from mark earlier until last earnings season. i think the consumer has yet to

roll over. the strength an apple is as much about flight inequality as much as you have seen a plate the quality and treasures. i am not equating the move higher to that apple is suddenly seen a fresh search for their products. we want to hear what mega tech has got to say. rallying 22% or so into resistance and into earnings. this set up for tech is the opposite of what banks had. thanks had a terrible selloff into the numbers and gave them a decent place to rally. the s&p from friday as last thursday slow to where we open this morning at 7 1/2% in that move. we know the nasdaq and the semis have done that much more in five days. a lot of this is related to yields. if you told me yields have topped, the dollar has talked, kurds have talked, you have a tailwind for mecca top tech. at some point we have to pay the piper here. i don't think apple has any reason to tell you they are seeing off-the-cuff demand. >> pay the piper meaning if the

fed said 75 next week as many expect, then the market, i would think that is expected, right? >> pay the piper it means i think amanda tech needs to do their part and move down. apple is 12% off of all-time highs doesn't do it for me. >> it is not a good set up going into earnings for any stock or any sector under the sun for you to run up into earnings when there are so many question marks about forward guidance. >> that is absolutely right. it is not just apple. there have been many concerns about tech spending. i think a lot about the larger companies, like the googles and the facebook. at the peak of venture capital investing, 50% of every dollar that went into a venture investment went to google and facebook. that is going away. a lot of that revenue is being pulled back.

while layoffs are very indicative of business confidence, i think i'd spend is very important to understanding the confidence of most businesses. i will definitely be paying attention to that. >> brian, do you think -- i called you brian. you are not in trouble, that just came out for some reason. are you worried about ad spending for this sector? snape seems to send the alarm bells, but snape is a very different business from say an alphabet or a meta-. snape is much more exposed to tiktok and went to may be sucking away from snape specifically. >> yeah. sure. you will get a broader read from something like an apple bad. they have multiple different properties that you will be able to find out about. we will get a much better read. i am not sure i agree with much that has been said except for what tim has seen that running

them up into earnings is a bad thing. what we saw today is a yields going lower in stocks going lower. to me that was because the pmi really rolled over both in europe and in the u.s. when we say the consumer has yet to roll over, does not mean it is going to roll over? that means this is the best we get and the consumer will roll over. i think that is what bonds and stocks are trying to tell you today. it is about earnings sort of but it is about forward guidance . it doesn't matter if they come out with 75 basis points, everyone expects that. if they tell you they will continue to raise rates into what looks like a pretty severe slowdown, that will not be good for anybody. >> interestingly,or maybe not

a good set up for stocks, europe is in the same about. the ecb is doing that and it is doing that into a session, what looks like a recession. >> it is probably everything under the sun. it was pmi's, but i think it was more snape that took the legs out of the market. i no longer term it is pmi. the market was rallying going into maybe a later cpi number next month. that is what i think the market was reacting to before you get the pmi, before you get the snap. if you had seen peak inflation, you have seen peak hawkishness. >> possibly. we have talked about this before. go-ahead, bk. >> that is my point. if the market is pricing and peak hawkishness and the fed comes out and is hawkish, you have to figure out what is priced into the market already and what is going forward. that is exactly my point. peak hawkishness is priced in. >> we saw the silver lining in the midst and services to pmi. prices rose at the slowest pace

since january. peak is nice, but where does it go from here? it's the possibility that the fed is still hawkish and investor expectations and fed expectations are still misaligned, that is still pretty decently high. should >> chunky moves by global central banks in the last two weeks should also have investors concerned that central banks can move too far, too fast. let me say my 2 cents. the services side of that, that is the biggest side of this economy was printed at 47. that is recessionary.

the composited 47 1/2, that is recessionary. that tells you that there is a place in the world where people are concerned there could be policy error. i'm not sure that neutral rate for the fed is anywhere close to where we are. this is where we meet in the middle. i don't want to get too far past because there are great charts talking about yields. as you go from march to april and 23, we are about six months away from that or so, you see rates come down on the futures expectations. not a lot, but a little bit. not moving higher, you are coming down. >> u.s. treasury yields extended the retreat today. the 10 year rate falling to the lowest level since may. there is even more room to run to the downside. carter joins us now. what are you looking at? >> we are in that nice spot where lower yields are giving a lift to equities and yet as we go lower, and i think we go lower, it is going to not be the elixir it has been. let's look at a few charts. looking at price first, this is the tlp the i shares 20+ year of the treasury bond ips. it has all the elements of a reverse information. it doesn't matter what you call it. sequencing is changing. if we were to say where might this be headed, the second chart attempts that.

is a downtrend line that is well defined. we will head up to around 123 on tlt, which closed out at 118, 119 this week. what does that imply for the 10 year yield? let's look at two charts. the first is this is to near yields, u.s. 10 year treasury yields. it is the inverse. we know rates peaked at 3.5 over a month ago, the 16th of june. this reversal formation is very well assigned as well. where might we be headed if any of tlt is headed to the downtrend line? well, the hundred and 50 moving average comes into play at around 2.5%. there probably headed a bit lower than that. >> a bit lower than that. thank you. we will see you in a few minutes on oa. here is the question. we sort of touched on this. if we know that rates are going down, let's assume carter is right of rates are headed lowe

, do stocks find a floor because of that? or is the reason why the rates are going lower, will that eventually pull stocks down? >> yeah. at the end of the day, the fundamentals will matter. i know they have it for a long time but i do believe eventually they start to matter. rates could be as low as you want but if businesses are really under pressure, that is typically what drives the stock. i would say it is much more important to have an understanding of the drivers of the business and if those are changing and getting harder, what is the stability to margin? we have a lot of cost pressure. it is great if we peaked on inflation. if it stays persistently high, that is not really that great. if we are still at 8% inflation, that is still brutally high. i think the fundamentals are what matters in terms of driving the stocks. >> how do you invest in a sub 2 1/2% world seeing that the last 2 1/2% world we saw maybe two

times ago was like a different world? >> i have been mr. recession. the problem is i do think that you can thread the needle with a rally going into a later cpi number next month. then, i think the market, just to be too cute on the market, i think the market sells off on margins, on compression, on everything we know about. and i think we rally after the midterm elections. i do think we actually have a rally come november into december. when you are investing in this, i think you have to go -- people have equated large tech with safety. i think you stay to a large extent with core and names that are valued tech. and you go outside of that in into the value complex. if you believe in a recession, it is coming, you have to go

safety and you want to invest in utilities and things that can provide he was some sort of a safety for. don't kid yourself, everything gets it. >> there is a difference in the world which we are heading to sub two and half percent world in which we will be fit 1/2% going forward. is that the signal to you know what, i am in on stocks again? >> now. i don't think so. i would just go back to where we are and markets relative to the all-time high, where we are in terms of the duration of what has been a bear market and the city where i think we still have to rule out inflation and not even close. we also have to forget, and i think we all want this deep down. the fed put is gone. while the long and maybe getting ahead of the fed and implying that you have sent deflationary trends, you have control over inflation, i don't think it ultimately tells you where we are going. i don't feel as if we have a trace to price in.

i don't think the cycle of this market move -- also i've mentioned this a couple times, when you have had inflation inspired recessions in our history -- we have to go back, it's really more 70s and early 80s and mid 80s, those are the larger cycles and market pullbacks: for this. arguably without efficient markets have become, proliferation of information from an overly transparent fit, he may have some moves in truncated. we have not heard from any of big tech talk about enterprise pull back. i kind of meant to hear that and i think we have to hear it. >> we will hear from a slew of non-tech companies,. first, the crypto coaster continues. to these moves this month in the corn. with the rally continue? the big one baller is here to break it down. back right after this. ♪ dreaming is free. ♪

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welcome back to fast money. bit coin and other currencies are in the red today. either posting its best week since august of 2021. i spoke with sam banquet for you about the recent volatility

in the space. >> i think this will be one of the turning points. we need to be moving towards a world in which there is transparency around customer aspects. and you know in which the credit sector is able to manage risk appropriately and responsibly. i think we have done a lot of work for our exchange. we may see some of that be otc lending space as well. >> what do you think happens? are things going to be different? i was asking him what evaluation could be in the future. could ever recoup its full valuation if lending standards change dramatically requirements change dramatically. what do you think? >> i think lending standards are going to change dramatically. i don't know if block five is going to be the one that wins this race anymore.

there are plenty of people i am seen jumping into the space at of more traditional lenders with more traditional risk management and more traditional institutional players coming into a. there is an awful lot of competition coming into the lending space now that these companies have gone bankrupt. i do think there will be a lot of changes here. what is interesting is what you have seen is this is a centralized financial crisis. it was c5, it wasn't d5. all of the companies that got bailouts where centralized corporations. all of the d5 protocols are still running, no problem. >> what do you make of the bounce we have seen so far in crypto? >>with sam has done and what a

couple other people have done is these companies have either gotten the bailout or gone into bankruptcy and critically their assets have been frozen. that take supply off the market. these companies are going to have to dump assets indiscriminately. know those assets are frozen for who knows how long. if we go back to 2013, that was quite a while ago. those assets are just coming out of the legal system at this point in time. the assets and the bankrupt company companies are locked up for 5 to 10 years easily. it is like a beach ball underwater. now, the question is where else all the dead bodies? if we use something with the 2000 a crisis, this is our moment here in crypto. lehman wasn't the bottom. it took six months to market the bottom and that is my base case. as we get these bodies floating to the top, things leak lower. >> coming up tonight, cnbc special politics and profit. we will explore issues of washington that can have a direct impact on your money from inflation to funding climate change in key issues in

the midterms. it's a great lineup including council of economic advisors chair sicilia ruth and business leaders d moanre. first, it is not just big tech on the calendar. we have a traders toys and other names to be watching. more fast money, to. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is.

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welcome back to fast money. earnings will get results from many other major companies. mcdonald's, boeing, pfizer, exxon, mobil and more set to report. which non-tech names are on your radar? julie? >> i'm interested in detroit travel and leisure segment. i am curious to see what they're talking about in terms of business travel. we know it has been a fantastic

vacation season. i am curious because business travel really is the driver of a lot of profitability for airlines and certainly for hotels. you need to fill those rooms monday to thursday in the dead of march. i am curious to see what that looks like going forward, if we are ever going to get back to where we were or if margins for that are permanently impaired. >> dk, how about you? >> for me, it is really housing and whirlpools reporting next week. the fed has consistently said housing prices are too high. i don't want to fight the fed as i happen to think the beatings will continue until housing cracks and we haven't seen that yet. i went to see whirlpool, people are starting to pull back. folks like steve making elderberry sorbet and has built an ice cream maker. that is what i don't want.

i want to see that spot. >> i had no idea he was making elderberry in his basement. that is great food for thought. >> it sounds absolutely delicious. >> thank you for the last time. >> i can't remember if you were in whirlpool at some point. what are you watching?'s >> i am not in whirlpool. i have no idea what elderberries are and i don't want them to i am looking at visa. i am looking at gm, i am looking at chevron. when i look at visa, the processes are going to give us some insight into spending trends. they will tell you spending trends are fine. it is more in line with some of the things that julius looking at as it gets into what they are going out and doing these days. i do that think they will have major issues. they were probably not give you a guide but constant currency affects.

expect to hear that, even though that's not what we are worried about. we are back to pre-pandemic evaluations in visa and mastercard. very interesting. >> i wanted to see the of performers in each of these different groups. i want an industrial, that's honey well. i wanted a consumer name, that's mcdonald's. because of what we heard from verizon and at&t it's a negative i want to hear from t mobile. i have never seen a company schedule a presentation when they have something negative to say. i think they will continue to outperform their. i want to see how the economy is doing in their eyes. mcdonald's increased price is 6%. how are they dealing with food information? how is this going to progress down the pipe for them and what are they going to do during a recession? t-mobile is a 14% year-to-date. residence down 14%. i want to see what they are doing. >> time goes fast.

time for the final trade. looks good on the horn, brian kelly. >> for me to sell to cues. you will go lower, stocks the lower. >> julie be old? >> reporter: i'm treating into teledyne. i think defense spending should be a good place to be. >> jane seymour? she >> at the end of the day, 4 1/2 times on gm. i think it will reaffirm very strong numbers. margins is something i want to earn even in a difficult environment. you will hear about supply chain as well. >> mcdonald's, best start of the space. >> that does it for us. don't go anywhere. options action is next.

tonight on options action, the countdown is on for a week of monster earnings. the list goes on and on. which are the names to play ahead of the results. a call to action on boeing. the is based on of close to 60% that next month. no later we will look back. has the trade been friendly? you will be digging into your tweets. let's get right to it.