they are already pricing in a pretty big move on that stock, up or down. >> stay tuned. that is a tease. >> thank you, dom. our dom chu. >> thank you very much well, welcome back, everybody. another big week ahead. >> very big. >> thanks for joining us and watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> thanks, kelly and tyler stocks are trading in a narrow range as a pivotal week for the market gets under way. the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." here's where we stand in the market the s&p giving up a third of 1%. you've got communication services as the underperformer and that's dragging down the nasdaq as well it's down a percent. the dow, it's been in a narrow range, it's down 46. the high was up 129. the low today down 40, so we're near the lows of the dsession. small caps are doing a little

better here's a look at the heat map. you can see energy on top with oil prices jumping 2% on word that russia is cutting gas supplies through the large nord pipeline to germany. clearly energy stocks are higher financials, utilities, industrials, health care and consumer staples remain green. it's the tech stocks that are getting hit hard today information technology down a percent, communication services, consumer discretionary down 1.25%. some of the retailers are having a rough day today. hasbro, the home builder, royal caribbean, giving up some gains from last week. coming up today, former barclay ceo bob diamond joins us with his calls for the fed to go big with its rate hike at this week's meeting what could happen if they don't. plus we'll talk to goldman sachs jonny fine we'll begin with this

crucial week for tech. key earnings kicking off tomorrow with apple and microsoft. news results after that disappointing second quarter number from snap last week joining us now is dan niles. dan, it's making moves in the wake of what we got from snap. what are you doing >> well, we had put out a note a couple of weeks ago talking about how we had concerns over ad spending for the internet companies and that would affect everybody, including google as well as all the other big names. and what you saw on friday was really much worse results coming out of that market than anybody anticipated. remember, snap said in june revenues were up 30% year over year that's -- sorry, in april, revenues were up 30% year over year and by june that had gone to zero. for us, we had covered a lot of the shorts that we had put on in the internet ad space because snap was down 39%, dragging everything else with it. but we also sold a bunch of our

longs. right now we have more shorts than we do have longs in the portfolio, and we think this is going to be an ugly week for fundamentals and potentially stock prices as well coming up. >> i guess the concern about ad spending, clearly snap was a warning last quarter and a warning this quarter and the worries you might have about social media stocks, meta, alphabet but that doesn't translate into cloud services, does it? what do you expect from those? microsoft, amazon with aws as a big piece of that. >> yeah, so we -- it was interesting because last week as we were thinking through the environment, it's sort of a supply chain, as it were so if you think about when covid happened, every business went to the cloud. everybody to order online. it was the only thing you could do so that really benefited the cloud service providers like microsoft azure, amazon web services and google cloud platforms. now if you think about what you're seeing, people are going

outside, going to concerts, getting on airplanes, et cetera. you see netflix lose subscribers for two quarters in a row. so that spending is now moving back to the real world to some degree that's one of the things we're worried about. nobody is anticipating any problems from the big three cloud service providers. and what we're concerned about is you might actually see some issues because utilization or need for cloud services goes down if people aren't spending as much time on the internet so we've got some -- >> >> the market has been worried about that, dan. actually the tech spending story has held up for the bulls so far. >> exactly that's the problem people worried about ad spend didn't stop. snapchat getting hit by 39% on friday so the point is you started with, oh, everything is wo

wond wonderful. well, maybe there's issues in enterprise so this is a rolling process it doesn't all happen in one day. and remember, some of these companies got premium multiples. so you look at a microsoft, it's trading at a 26 pe the s&p is at 17 times people probably remember when facebook was trading at a premium pe as well it's now trading at about 13 times. same thing with netflix, right so i think the stuff that you consider safe if you think about it, the simplistic view is you've got whether it's azure or amazon web services, google cloud, they're all growing 30 to high 40% and growth on the internet for consumption is slowing down and that should concern you when you've got multiples this high. >> so none of them are safe from your perspective you're out of amazon what about apple >> yeah, with apple we had been

long it versus short position in the android smart phone space. we got out of that last week and the stock rallied nicely off of its lows same issue with apple. you've got a premium pe, about 24 times or so s&p is at 17 times but again, remember, they were a big benefit from the pandemic. their revenue growth was 2% in 2019 last year they grew well over 20% and people are still looking for 6% or so growth this year. it wouldn't surprise me whether it's this year or next year for that growth to go negative apple is another thing you should be concerned about. don't forget, a lot of the high margin business is coming out of services and they get paid for things like google search and ad revenues that comes in at very high profit. so this quarter probably is fine but as you think about september, december, when you need a big ramp-up in spending,

i think the high-end consumer will start feeling some of the pain that the low-end an tdroid consumer is already feeling. >> dan niles, 250 million iphones have not been upgraded in the last three years. 90 million out of the gate in line for the iphone 13, sees plenty of demand there are there any specific data points that you're watching or do you think it's inevitable that we're going to slow >> just as i said earlier, you go back to 2019 and you had three out of four quarters where iphone revenues were down year over year. same thing with mac. both of those revenues are up tremendously so you saw a lot of upgrades during the pandemic. you've already got a lot of iphones out there in the market.

so you have to remember gas prices are where they are, inflation is very, very high apple luckily sells more of the mid to high end versus android in the mid to low end. when you get around to christmas and we think the market will be a fair bit lower from mere, inflation will still be high, i think you'll see that impact the mid to high endi consumer. >> got it. so you've out of all of these mega cap names where are you putting shorts on? >> absolutely. our hope is that we get some better prices to short more, but again, the cloud providers, i mean we're short microsoft, as an example, of that. but we've got a lot of shorts spread out through the space >> semis are you short semis into this c.h.i.p.s. act >> yes, we are we're long intel actually. we just bought it to hedge

against that but in general if you think about supply and demand, and you forget about the c.h.i.p.s. act because over a short period of time it's really not going to matter you've got a massive amount of inventory being built up in the supply chain at customers. at the same time, you've got demand slowing down in pcs as well as in smartphones and now we're getting some signs of enterprise as well. so that inventory will have to get burned off semis are up a good 20% off their lows if you think numbers are going to get reset hard and we saw that with seagate last week -- this is just a bear market, sara. >> they're off the lows but still 30% or so off their highs. this is a group that's been hammered on some of these concerns already. >> that's not hammered hammered in semis is when they're down 50% plus.

if you go back to prior recessions, these stocks get hit very hard because they're very cyclical they're cyclical on the way up because they're overearning and on the way down they're under underearning so you haven't got through where you have to cut and slash and burn some of these numbers that process has just started. even tsmc on their call raised their numbers and said we have a multi-quarter inventory correction coming. >> but even micron was super negative but the stock went up because a lot was reflected already in there. >> that's what we said earlier you've had five rallies in the s&p this year that have averaged 7% apiece. you've lost 17% of your money. by the way, this is normal during the tech bubble when it broke and the global financial crisis, you had five rallies in the s&p that were between 18 to 21% on your way to losing 50% of your money so this happens. you can look at our twitter

account. we've a lot of times said, hey, we think the market is at a short-term low and we think it will bounce, but that's also how we made money. you try to get long -- if you think you're at a short-term bottom and you put your shorts back on after they rally, that's what we're trying to do. >> put the shorts back on. we appreciate the transparency thank you very much, as always >> thanks, sara. >> dan niles from satori dan's shorts are having a good day because it's microsoft, amazon, apple, nvidia all dragging down the nasdaq today. there is a renewed debate about what exactly defines a recession. we'll discuss with bob diamond and he'll tell us why he's calling for a supersize rate hike at this week's meeting. you're watching "closing bell. down 43 on the dow, down 1% on the nasdaq

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we've got some crypto news out of washington. >> two sources are telling me that the stablecoin legislation being negotiated by the top democrat and republican on the house financial services committee is being delayed until after the august recess. members have been hoping to mark this up as soon as wednesday but the two could not agree on the parameters for this bill which would have included a one-to-one

backing for stablecoins as well as along nonbank financial institutions to issue stablecoins as well. i am told that a discussion draft could still come out this week but a formal consideration is now being delayed until at least september. sara. >> got it, ylan, thank you. bob diamond joins us, former barclay's ceo because bob is trying to take circle public via spac, which makes the usd largest stablecoin, right, bob does this legislation include your timing? >> we still hope to have our spac approved in the fourth quarter, but timing is very difficult. i don't think the legislation around regulation has a direct impact on the approval of our spac, but of course, sara, all of us are looking forward to the development of a smart regulatory framework particularly around stablecoin but frankly around many areas of digital and crypto.

>> but they be regulated like banks, by bank regulators, like the fed, or by the s.e.c.? >> listen, i'm going to leave that to the legislators. one of the things that's been very, very clear within the group at circle, both before our involvement and today is we embrace regulation we have set ourselves up as the most conservative, the most regulated operating within the u.s. regulatory parameter, very, very clear on our portfolio standing behind our stablecoins, which is as you know 80% u.s. treasury t-bills three months and below, 20% cash, or a dollar is a dollar is a dollar. i do think regulation around a stable backing to stablecoins is important. >> bob, people don't have a lot of trust and faith right now in spacs or in crypto and stablecoins. are you going to get this deal

done >> i don't think that's true clearly the new issue market in spacs is at a crawl, if even that but this is a spac that we had announced or a merger that we had announced about a year ago we're working our way through the regulatory process so we don't think what's the disruption and the new inssue spac market will have any impact on that at all in terms of stablecoin, sara, think about circle when crypto winter hit, these are rough numbers, but the market cap of crypto is about $3 trillion that dropped very, very quickly to about $1 trillion during that period, circle raised private money at the highest rate they have ever raised it and the outstanding went from just under $50 billion

to today about $55 billion. >> so you guys distinguished yourself against the terras and blow-ups. >> yes, particularly within the stablecoin universe, yes. >> got it. bob, i wanted to ask your general thoughts about the economy as well. do you buy this idea that we can't have a recession with the unemployment rate in the 3%? the white house's new line is technically two negative quarters of growth is recession but it's up to the nber to define recession and they're not going to do that if we have such a robust labor market. is that true >> we all know the inflection point was hit in so many of the indices in march and april, about the time the fed became a bit more aggressive. you still have sectors like autos, housing you have a buildup in inventories. and you have an unemployment rate still around 3.6% you kind of think of this as the

full employment downturn and i do believe, as you had said earlier, that the fed needs to be more aggressive, not less aggressive my own view is that 100 basis points would be the correct july 31st call for the fed in terms of rates but generally while we have begun to come off the top and there is -- you know, we're past the inflection point, the demand that was built up with the fiscal stimulus and the monetary stimulus and the fact that the fed waited so long to stop buying u.s. treasuries and mortgages mean that they need to get ahead of this now. so we need a fed that's more aggressive, not less aggressive. my own view is if they do 100 or a bit more aggressive, it will make this easier in the long run. the longer that they wait to become more aggressive, the harder it is to get a 9% inflation world tempered down. >> wouldn't it also increase the

likelihood of a hard landing where you do get problematic unemployment already we've started to see the data turn since the last fed meeting. jobless claims now starting to spike. you've seen the announcements from corporate america wouldn't that argue for not being as aggressive with the rate hikes >> no, i think it's just the opposite i feel a little bit like this is a slow puncture. the fed is going at it slowly. i know people disagree with that but think about it a full employment downturn we're at 3.6% unemployment rate. we've seen some of the turn in terms of jobless claims, in terms of number of job openings, but we still have pretty much full employment. i think for the fed to become a bit more aggressive and move from a slow puncture would be -- would lessen the chance of a hard landing, not increase the chances. >> so you want to see them just rip off the band-aid

>> i'm not saying rip off the ba band-aid i think a hundred now -- >> what's the difference between 75 and 100 >> it would bring the funds rate to 2.5 i think it's a bit of a signal that we went from 25 to 50 to 75 to 100 that we're not saying the job is done. the job is by no means done. we have a lot more to do >> i do think a lot of investors agree with you bob diamond, thank you for coming on and sharing your thoughts. >> thank you, sara. the markets down 12 points, a little recovery on the dow in the s&p you've got strength in groups like the financials, like energy, like industrials. some of the cyclical groups there but weakness in technology so today is a value over growth day which we haven't seen for a lot of the month of may -- or july it's july. still tracking for our best month of the year. the nasdaq is down a little less

than a percent coming up, we'll discuss the signals coming from the bond market with jonny fine. plus we'll tell you two stories about the intersection of sports and media that are scoring some buzz on media today. check out some of the top search tickers 10-year yield back on top, followed by tesla, apple, snap and a new entrant, weber grills, off the lows still sinking 16% an earnings warning of slowing demand and a ceo departure is zipp sinking that stock we'll be right back.

check out today's stealth mover, wwe entertainment hiking it to 90. the analyst citing increasing odds the company will get sold following the retirement of ceo

vince mcmahon who is being investigated over allegations of sexual misconduct. that stock up 8.5%. up next, a media story, the nfl getting into the streaming business details on what this means for fans and media stocks when "closing bell" comes back. the dow down about 8 points.

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what is wall street buzzing about today? nfl plus the country's most popular league the latest to launch a streaming service. the direct-to-consumer offering will be available for $4.99 per month. cnbc.com media reporter alex sherman joins us now for more. alex, why is the nfl doing this? >> there's sort of a near-term reason and a long-term reason. in the near term for $4.99 per month, this is a new revenue stream for the league in two different ways really. they're offering out of market preseason games. so for hard core fans that really want to watch their team immediately, you can pay $4.99 a month. this used to cost $99.99 for crazy people like me that really wanted to watch their favorite teams' preseason games you also get mobile rights for

regular season and postseason games that already air on tv this used to be for free through the yahoo! app verizon owned the rights, they didn't renew them. that's the near term long term, this gives the nfl a new platform that it could eventually down the road put exclusive games on so we'll have to see how that plays out. >> that was my question. like how big are the ambitions here for the nfl because we know how valuable their content is everyone goes crazy and it's much watch, not just for crazy people like you, there's some in my household but they're trying to negotiate the sunday ticket with amazon and apple. could we be in a world where they could compete if they don't like the economics of these deals, just do nfl plus and make themselves their own distributor? >> down the road i think that's absolutely a possibility they say, look, if you don't meet our price, we can always put the games on nfl plus.

however, i don't think that's going to happen any time soon. their local and prime time games are already locked up. this happened last year. between seven and 11 years down the road as you mentioned, the big prize for out of market games is sunday ticket. that is going to be announced as soon as next month potentially, certainly by the fall, in terms of who gets that for next year directv owns sunday ticket for this year. it's the last year of that deal. it could be amazon, it could be apple. youtube putting in a bid for that that will be given a certain amount of time, x years, we don't know exactly the length. but the nfl assures me that whoever the partner is will be given ample runway to build up an audience with sunday ticket so i think this in terms of a platform for exclusive games will be a years down the road thing, not a near term thing. >> well, it's going to be fun on

any platform to watch the bengals win the super bowl this time this year or next, i could say alex sherman up next, goldman sachs jonny fine discusses what he's seeing means for the stock market down again 40 on the dow we'll be right back. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market.

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treasury yields nudging a bit higher today ahead of the fed meeting but significantly

off their highs of the year. joining us now is jonny fine jonny, it's great to have you. what is the corporate bond market telling us right now about recession and the fed? >> well, it's great to be back on, sara, thanks for having me i think the corporate bond market has been picking up on a number of cues that macro market has been picking up since the cpi data at the beginning of the month. i think what the market is telling us is they feel good about the fed having a really strong handle on inflation and that they have the strength to be able to take the battle and win it what that's allowed to happen is that as rate volatility subsided, we started to see a reliquefication of the investment grade credit. we saw $50 billion of supply and another $15 billion today. i think the market is sending

nice positive signals here but hopefully the fed can affirm when we hear from them later this week. >> so it's a pretty cheerful assessment from a credit person, which you don't always get i think also, jonny, it helps explain why we've seen stocks rally the last new weeks the question is, is that right so even if the fed comes out 75 basis points as expected, they're still talking tough on inflation and i'm not sure that people think the ramifications in a recession has fully been priced in. >> so i would agree with that. i think that actually speaks to a lot of the advice that we're giving to a number of our issuers who are considering looking at the market in the forthcoming window post earnings that is, that is window that we have right now could be fleeting we believe now that inflation probably peaked at the earlier part of this month we'll get more data as we get into next month that pay challenge that

if it does, we'll reprice where the terminal rate is, we'll reprice the number of hikes we think we'll get from the fed and another bout of rate volatility which will damage a lot of the capital market's activity that we've seen if we don't get that, i feel good about what's flowing through into risky markets and buoying us into year end. >> part of the thesis is the fed is going to start cutting. it's not a pause, it's a total pivot where they would ease policy because they overdid it on the economy is that something you're seeing in the markets how likely is that >> so we certainly see it in the market i think both the goldman sachs forecast as well as the market expects the fed rate to peak at year end, 3.25 to 3.5% if you look at the goldman sachs forecast, we think fed fund stays flat through '23, '24 and '25. the market is actually looking for 50 basis points of cuts

throughout 2023. i personally think that's very unlikely i think the fed will get to that point. if they have won the battle against inflation, i think they'll still be fearful of any resurgence because of how close it is in the rear-view mirror and, therefore, will keep policy tight until they really, really are confident that inflation has gone away. >> so you think the market upshot is a little too enthusiastic right now and it sounds like you'd be cautious on stocks and corporate credit? >> so i'm not sure about direction of the market overall, although i will say from a corporate credit perspective, i think one of the bigger challenges that investment grade will face is more technical in nature as opposed to fundamental. we're seeing a lot of capital leave the system we've had a string of 17 consecutive outflows from mutual funds, and supply continues to want to run at a decent clip i think from a technical perspective we're likely to widen modestly into year end

look, whether or not we get policy easing as we get into next year, i think it's a little secondary at this point. i think what the market really wants to see is that the fed absolutely is going to take and win that battle over inflation we'll have to look at conditions then we'll have to look at what the macro backdrop employment growth, et cetera, looks like in '23 before really having a view as to what the outlook for '23 and beyond looks like. for now i think the back end of this year, i would expect a more robust level of capital markets activity for sure. >> jonny fine, thank you for helping us pregame the fed decision, the signals from the bond market. by the way, the dow turning positive now it's up 13 points. chevron, caterpillar and dow chemical driving it higher. up next, sam stovall on whether last week's rally was a bear market bounce that story and the countdown to en we ke from a big chip maker

whta you inside the market zone, next.

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with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. shannon is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day, plus deirdre bosa and sam stovall on today's market volatility. the s&p 500 did snap a four-day win streak on friday look like it might post its second day of losses here, but all major averages are on pace for their best monthly gains of the year

all the mega caps report this week we've got a fed meeting. we've got a gdp report >> wow, what a story there is so much going on and so much to look at. i think it's a great week. we're going to get guidance. we're going to get that gdp print. everyone has been concerned about a second negative print. are we in a recession. we're also going to get great housing data i think a late will create much better context for investors than maybe we've had over the course of the last couple of months where it's one big statement from the fed or it's the cpi print. this week we're going to get some real interesting data the more data we can get is a really positive thing for

investors. i'm looking forward to hearing what the fed has to say. many of us who are stating it will be positive, it will be interesting to see if we're right. >> the nasdaq is underperforming today. we did speak with earlier dan niles. here's why he explained. >> apple is another thing you should be concerned about. don't forget, a lot of the high margin business is coming out of services and they get paid for things like google search and things that comes in at very high profit margins. so this quarter probably is fine as you think about september, december, when you need a big ramp-up in spending, i think the high-end consumer will start feeling some of the pain that the low-end android consumer is already feeling. >> he's also short microsoft, shannon.

i think you are on the other side of a lot of these trades. you hold apple, microsoft, amazon are you not worried about the fact that the economy is slowing and they're sensitive to it? >> i think it would be naive to state that you're not concerned about the economic slowing that we're seeing and some of the deterioration in the data. i think as it relates to apple in particular, because you just had that great clip, i don't disagree that we could see some delay of services revenue. more importantly, if we see some delay in handset replacement and that demand gets delayed, probably not destrukted because i'm more optimistic about 2023 than the back half of 2022 but if we see handset replacement delayed, that does impact revenue you need to have a newer handset to get all of your updates, to download more apps so i don't think dan is

incorrect in his concern about services revenue, but i do question if that's the first level of demand destruction giving that it's fairly small dollars and seems to be wrapped up in your online spend in total. so i'm concerned about the consumer slowdown. i think apple is important because it represents not only this revitalized nasdaq trade but also that consumer trade so it's sort of in the epicenter of concern for this week maybe not so much as microsoft and amazon has already seen its sell-off you're right, apple is perhaps the most important report this week. >> apple is down 14% this week which makes it a nonperformer. s&p is down 16 it's been a brutal year for the fintech companies, especially in that buy now, pay later industry private companies klarna and stripe seeing their valuations slashed. earlier that the klarna ceo told

deirdre bosa about prioritizing growth in this environment. >> we have a billion dollar growth business in europe and we have established a massive business in the u.s. with 30 million users and tons of transactions now it's all about just turning it back to profitability which is something fortunately we know how to do. >> certainly they're changing their tune, as so many of these companies are on profitability can they continue to expand, and do you think klarna with that massive slash in valuation is unique or a sign of what's happening out there? >> i think it's a sign of what's happening out there. their new valuation is more in line with what we've seen in public comps like a firm we've seen big here in the u.s it has experienced being profitable but can it turn on those levers here in the united states it's a much more competitive market they are not yet profitable

here, they are still in growth mode so you have to wonder what their investors in this latest round are asking in terms of that path to profitability, which is as you said, sara, what it is all about. we also talked about the buy now, pay later space he made the comparison as we enter this economic downturn, it's going to be more appealing to consumers, especially the young users that love to use it. >> that's what max said last week from affirm so what is wall street so worried about here >> well, this is what i asked sebastian. i asked him if it was a bubble a nearly $46 billion market cap is huge. the multiples on that some would argue are crazy. there's been so much money in private markets. affirm was part of this as well, then it went public and we see what the public markets have done so that's the key question can it ever get back to that point or be worth more than $40 billion. he's confident that they can he would say that. he made the comparison to an

amazon, how it had its boom, then bust, then boom again remember, everyone loves that example of amazon. there were many companies at the time that went bust altogether, and even some like cisco that never reached that peak valuation. >> good point. deirdre bosa, thank you. is there an opportunity here, shannon, in some of these buy now, pay later i know klarna is private, but some of these stocks that have got shellacked >> they did great, buy now pay later, when you didn't need buy now pay later. that's the right time to be extending credit is when they don't need it oryou feel reall secure they'll be able to pay it back obviously if we enter into a recessionary environment, the demand will be there but the risk for these buy now pay later companies is going to be much higher and they're going to have to be compensated for that when

we talk about profitability in terms of how much they're taking on in terms of that credit so for me i think it's probably a little early for these companies. i do think there's also just from a competitive perspective not a whole lot different in the business model so there's probably some winners and losers here but i think this space will continue to be under some pressure from a valuation perspective, but also just given what they do what does that demand end up looking like for the type of companies that they really do want to be affording credit to. >> the s&p just going positive again here in the final moments of trade it's been wavering back and forth all day long, trying for our fourth up day in the last five sessions. kristina partsinevelos is joining us what's the key number we should be watching. >> the earnings per share is $3.35. the fundamentals seem strong for nxp but it's more about the outlook that would be wavering

what do i mean by that you have four issues one the slowdown in demand but for nxp given they have 50% exposure to the auto sector, how much is auto going to compensate for the weakness in pc and handsets piper sandler pointed out that nxp has underexposure to evs, so any comments there, they just said they're partnering with foxconn last week. the third point is something that's relevant to all semi conductors is an inventory correction coming down the pipeline have we hit that because of double ordering, inventory levels, because supply chain problems are starting to ease. and last but not least, that would be the china covid lockdown, so these are all things we're looking out for with revenue $3.26 billion for nxp. the street expects it to come in line it's more about the future, the near-term future for a lot of these companies. >> got it.

kristina, thank you. semis are underperforming as the market recovers with the s&p going green. nasdaq has cut its losses from down 1% at the top of the hour and now down half a percent. the dow also picking up some steam into the close, up about 78 points. joining us is sam stovall, chief investment strategist at cfra. sam, we've had a nice rally here in july, best month of the year. is it a bear market bounce or the bottom >> i think it's a bear market bounce, sara i think the bottom is probably a ways off i went back and looked going back to world war ii, and found that a majority, two-thirds were in bear markets. within those bear markets essentially three out of every four of these 2.8% bounces or greater were well before the bottom was put in place. actually the average is about five months ahead of that

eventual bottom. eventually we will get a nice bounce that could top us back into bull market mode, but i think right now the early bounces really are simply bear market bounces. >> the other question is what about technology, because that's what we've seen showing some strength over the past few weeks. today is the day where they're underperforming, energy, financials, industrials, it's more value over growth which do you prefer? >> for the near term i would prefer more value over growth. we've been seeing weakness in the growth areas for consumer discretionary since the fourth quarter of last year technology in the first quarter it began to underperform the overall marketplace and still sort of just bouncing around here i would tend to say in these

challenging periods, the third quarter of presidential election years that have 70% higher volatility, you want to be sticking with a defensive end, in many ways the invasion hedge areas. >> what about earnings, sam? where do expectations stand now that we've seen some of the groups, key groups like financials report? overall how are they doing and what does that mean for the market >> i think it's been a bit deceptive, sara. we started the quarter on june 30th, expecting a 6% year on year increase. we went down to 4.9. now we're at about 6.2 so you'd think we're ahead of the game. but the improvements came from consumer staples, energy and health care. technology was off from 2.8% growth down to 1.4 continue to see negative prints expected for communication services, consumer discretionary and also seeing sharp declines

for full year 2022 and '23 so i would tend to say that while we got the valuation reduction in the first half of this year, now we're actually seeing the earnings reductions. >> got it, sam stovall, thank you for joining us shannon, always great to have you onboard, thank you. as we head into the close, the s&p is positive, up about a tenth of 1%. you've got energy in the lead. of course crude oil up about 2% on word that the russians are cutting gas flow to europe in that key pipeline to germany utilities, financials, health care, and hestaples are all positive amazon is lower, tesla is lower. technology stocks are lower. communication services are also lower, about a third of 1%, some positioning perhaps ahead of a very key week of earnings which kick off tomorrow with microsoft after the bell the nasdaq is down about 0.4 of

1% which is a nice recovery from what we saw earlier in the session. at the top of the hour the nasdaq was about 1% lower. the small caps are also making a nice move higher treasury yields have been higher as well, still well below that 3% level as we go into the close, the nasdaq down 0.4, s&p off a tenth. that's it for me on "closing bell." see you tomorrow into "overtime" with scott wapner all right, sara, thank you very much. welcome, everybody, to "overtime. i'm scott wapner you just heard the bells we're just getting started i'll speak exclusively with nancy davis on what's in store with volatility this week given all that lies ahead, including a market moving fed meeting, the important earnings reports we've been telling you about speaking of, nxp's numbers are imminent jim lebentha