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good morning, good afternoon, or good evening. welcome, from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm ron sullivan, thanks for joining us on cnbc. to kick off the hour. check on your money in the stock markets. they are lower across the board. dio w, down 100 points. walmart, the part of the story today. shares are losing 9% after it cut guidance. it's a market loss of about $20

billion. we will get much more coming up. this is one of the flattest days we have seen for stocks in a wile. the average is barely moving on monday. no surprise there. we have the fed decision tomorrow. a lot is out today. mcdonald's, u.p.s., microsoft, coca-cola, and more. wow. big day, big week. stocks are up about 5% this month. we are on pace for the best month from october. a few days ago, don't jinx it. no broadcast occurs. right now, we are up 5%. 10 year yields. the city is right around 2.8%. that takes us back to the levels of mid april. hard to believe, but true. they are not going to make a move until an interest rate decision is right there.

crude oil is on the move. creeping back to $100 a barrel. all of that as global demand remains strong, and supplies are tied. natural gas, on the rise. back in your nine dollars. that's the new nordstrom news. in crypto, we are seeing that going lower by about 4%. one of our favorite percent pro guests, mark cuban, doing well with crypto. what is happening? >> good morning. we have a european trade issue. it is underway in the region. in terms of the breakdown, it's red in the most part. here in the uk, we are seeing particularly strong performances for the oil and gas stocks. energy prices on the rise. we have the oil majors move.

it they are performing quite well. we will get to that in a moment. one of the key movers to the downside, u.p.s. they are trading sharply lower after the blunder posted a swift quarter net profit of $21 billion. it's below analyst forecast. they are declining activity on the back of the global markets. shares are down nearly 6% as a result. on the flipside, we have green on the board. it's a consumer good space. they have guidance for the full year. they jumped 8.1%. ahead of expectations. they are hiking prices to counter foreign costs. they have the sales guidance for the year. as a result, the shares are 3% higher. one of the best performers in the market this morning. back over to you.

>> we appreciate you leaving some green on the screen for you. your top story of the day, walmart. it's quarterly. inflation, beginning to rock the american shopper contestants. it's a big story today. >> hi there. shares of walmart, being crushed right now. down almost 9% in the early trade. it's cutting its quarterly and for your profit outlook. inflation is causing shoppers to spend more on essentials like food, and less on clothing, electronics, and other items that have favorable markets. walmart has adjusted its second quarter followings from 9% every year. they call for 1.6% growth. general merchandise is forcing them to have more markdowns to get rid of one style of

unwanted inventory. it's because of discounting. it explodes to see, quote, more action throughout the year. it will shape around 80 points from the p.o.w. only 8% it has fallen eight times in the top 10 years. last earnings report, walmart sank 11%. biggest drop since the year 2000. it's being felt across the retail space. it's got shares with amazon, target, and others in the premarket trade. we have target down 5% already. >> they have 2.8 billion shares. every dollar mode is 2.8 billion. we have a market cap actions. i was at the grocery store yesterday. you go to the store at this point. it's basically $100 a bag.

it doesn't matter what you buy. sticker shock every time you check out. >> is across demographics. denigration is what we are really reporting. >> i'm online looking for a used car. 40 miles a gallon, who knows? thank you very much. right now, we have breaking news out of washington for crypto. what is happening? >> good morning. it allows them to buy things with crypto without working about different cinemas. we have different

cryptocurrency actions by making it easier to conduct every days purchases. right now, if you buy something with that coin, you can technically of the irs capital gains tasks and tasks penalties with less than $50 from that requirement. we have executive directors as well. he hopes they are trying to expand the development of the infrastructure. quote, cryptocurrency meets the same exemption for small, personal transactions that we have before currencies. this is for retail payments. we have description services, as well as micro-transactions. they have a slew of crypto legislations over the past few months. market volatility as of yet, none of it has gone very far. they have regulated stable coins, and they are forming a basis this week.

this crypto tax bill picks up. congress has its eyes on the industry. back over to you. >> there's a lot to unpack here. a lot of people have been abusing taxes. it's kind of a thing. is there anything in this bill that makes sure to safeguard the fact that people are not going to abuse this like they have so many others? these are good-natured, government programs. ppp loans included. >> everybody looks for it. they are trying to hide a large gain in crypto by making small transactions. you are running $50 transactions. you're trying to avoid the capital gains tax. it's one event for the 500

event. the real idea is right here. we have a bunch of unknowing paperwork at the end of the year. >> with the cryptocurrency on cnbc's website, is it a lot? would you buy something with big one? that's the debate. the use case, the retail payments are using it that way. they are taking the damage so that they don't have to make it work. use it as a asset. >> if you are a long-term holder, it's ray here. you have crypto gains. thank you very much.

we are getting started on the tuesday. we have more on that, with crypto pro, and with cnbc news, he says it's time to trade in some ski jackets for some shades. the winter is over. they are writing ahead for what they expect tomorrow. we are happy to have him on later this much more. we have a take on the wanting for stocks. where the american shopper is where the american shopper is headed and secure all olication how did you get here?! [watch: the backdoor is open.] vmware makes connected multicloud possible. cdw makes it powerful.

welcome back to worldwide exchange. pressure again, with walmart having the profit warning. all of this is the prophecy is days included for tomorrow. heavyweights today is about 3:00 a.m. with coca-cola. this deals with u.p.s. and microsoft. all of this, making a boost, news. this is when you buy something. 20 minutes, is with mark houston. mark, i have to imagine that you would like the bill in d.c. eliminating capital gains from

crypto purchases, no? >> absolutely. thanks for having me on the show. i think it's always been a really interesting debate. we are trying to call capital gains on mall transactions. something the irs should spend time on. it's really smart. hopefully, they make their way through the house and the senate. >> is that a currency? it's a lot of money in crypto. would you buy a pizza like the first guided? would you buy a pizza with crypto? >> that coin today, it's like a currency. you don't walk around with gold coins in your pocket. same thing. the average holder, is going to

use it as a store of value. it's really the currency aspect of it. it's the payment itself. it's the technology. the block team allows us to migrate from these 80 or 90- year-old technologies. it's a different currency element. the average holder is going to spend for coffee or donuts. >> if i believe bitcoin is going to $100,000, i own a bunch and i have made a lot of money. why would i buy anything because if it goes to 100,000, i have overpaid by 400%. i think we need a new name. >> really good point. i think the real issue, store

value, versus meeting of exchange. other ones do a really good job. gas, for example, heavily used in places like venezuela. each technology, you will find its own natural use case. it's a good store value. ultimately, it crowds out the bet money. one of the challenges of the monetary system globally, it can be devalued by central banks. that's going on for decades. you think about how much inflation everyone talks about. this is how we think about it. you and i were growing up in the 70s. excess demand, lots of boomers. it's all of these kids. delay is right here for the central global banks. they have so much currency.

it's not worth as much as it used to be. having a different asset like bitcoin, is essential for investors. >> i respect everybody. they are very intelligent and successful. looking for the fed to get us out of the situation is kind of like looking at the arsonist to work on the fire. they are on your process with overstimulation. anybody in congress actually got out of d.c., they would realize that half of the country did lockdown, or locked down for a short period of time. the business was almost as usual. but everything shut down for two years with washington. that was the case. do you think they're going to be able to solve this?

i'm doing". >> i love getting up early and starting the day with you. brilliant analysis right there. you are thinking about this. half of the dollars in the history of the republic, this was created in the last two years. the stimulus was ill-timed. it won't fix it. how many rate hikes are going to change global supply-chain problems? are they going to change the price of gas? how are they going to fix the price? that's not causing the problem that we are seeing with prices around the world. all of the job owning from interest waits, they had a massive year by

overstimulating. they are paying the piper. they can do that all they want. all they can do is cut off confidence and demand. this is at the lowest it has been in 70 plus years. we have a negative gdp print in a couple of days. the white house is trying to convince us that two consecutive courses from gdp is a recession. that is a fact. they decide when. we are in a recession. how deep it goes, is how they continue to go on this mandated raise in rates. >> they are changing the dates of the recessional. we will talk about that with roger ferguson just a little bit. i'm wrong on the air. you know what, we got it wrong.

we have money and we are sorry. we blew it. policies go a long way. appreciate the compliment and getting up early. thank you. >> thanks for having me on. >> you are very welcome. we had a misread action. walmart, not the only one facing a second quarter slowdown. other company/things, have been part of the year. we are shopping it. it's also done right now. big money movers. coming up.

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welcome back. we have money movers. whirlpool, second quarter loss. over to russia businesses, it's a deep forecast from rising costs from the demand. we have different companies and cutting guidances. we have sharing right now. semiconductor revenues, forecasted in the second quarter. cutting the third quarter sales from a different margin above. they have demanding chips. automobiles, they are connecting with these devices. it's about having sales from the auto industry. the stock is down about 2.5%. allegiant airlines, the budget

airlines, slashing. profits for the second quarter, having different costs like fuel. this was a gallon a quarter. 9 million dollars worth of extra fuel. the passes for the flight, it makes things more heavier. more fuel, more weight. stock is down 18% right now. is that bad? is that necessarily bad? not good for airline stocks. right ahead. is ec is having a closer look at coin base. what it calls for questionable securities. it's right off of 120.

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earnings and the fed under the microscope for the market. central bank expecting to keep the rate hikes right here. roger ferguson, trying to weigh in. a new warning around the growing impact from inflation on the american shopper. russia is launching a new energy war with europe. likely to cut gas flows on the nordstrom pipeline again. this tuesday, july 26, this is

worldwide exchange. back, everybody. tuesday morning, get right to it. start the half hour, check on your money. the lw is off 130. massive drag on the markets today. they are down 9%, one of the biggest drops it has seen in 20 years. the fact that the components are only down to 102, it's shocking news that they are about that much. it's a little bit higher. it's closer to $100 a barrel. about 2%, $98.40. natural gas is continuing to rise. it's up 2%.

they are increasing demand. energy, not for gas tomorrow could be another tough day for germany and europe. wednesday, gas is going to slow down gas flows. this is through the pipeline we have been talking so much about. maintenance from the turbine that we were talking about last week, the german government is disputing. they are saying that the turbine has nothing to do with full operation of the pipeline. still, russia is using that as an excuse. according to gas problems, they are dialing black oil barrels to 20% capacity. 50% drop from where they started last week. germany is likely not going to have enough desk space for gas

storage. no word on how long this further slowdown may last. they have energy from an economic weapon. keep the board up. that is what they call dutch national gas futures. this is in europe. it's a little confusing. it's at 193. every contract through december, is around 190. what does that mean? if you go from that to the euro, that's how we pass national gas. us$53 per contract. we just showed you our contract at $8.90. the spot market was 53. exact same product. exact same use. they are paying 53. we are paying nine.

we are very lucky to live in america right now. back here on wall street, the federal reserve is kicking off its two day policy meeting today. second street, who knows? 71% hike. this is what the expectations for a recession rise. this is closer to the cnbc survey. 55% responded have seen a recession in the next year. 20 points from a different survey. on average, the recession forecast is here again in december of the year. eight months earlier than the prior survey. joining us now, former rebels are vice chairman, ceo, roger ferguson, happy to have him on the show. important time, roger. to see you. what is your expectation for not only the media, in terms of what they do with rates, but with the guidance for these

possible centers? >> thank you so much. pleasure to be here. the market i expect to move 75 basis points. that's not very surprising. that's going to be signaled. you have two questions on your mind. is there going to be a dissent? one of the governors, it's going about four percentage points. it might move. we are going to see if one or both of them are going to descend in that direction. the economy is slowing somewhat. we might get one of the presidents saying that maybe 50 basis points would have been better. i'm watching to see if it's going to descend. i'm looking for at least one coming from those directions. i think they're going to observe ongoing. in terms of rate increases, i think it's much too early for

them to signal that they are slowing or taking a pause. we have to listen closely to hear what the chair has to say in the press conference. i doubt he's going to put in a number out there. that has proven to be difficult. i think they will try to have some hint of the future for sure. those are some of the elements i'm looking at. >> if we have that, does that signal to you that we are going to pivot towards a slowdown in hikes closer than we think? don't the rate hikes take time to work through the economy? it's not an immediate reaction. >> is exactly right. monetary policy, works with long and variable lags. it's different for this business. 50 basis points, says that we don't only have this

conversation, but 51% of the voters think we have the right move. perhaps the next move in september, more likely to be 50 basis points. it's mostly going to be on the next move. they have had it all baked in. they are starting to merge depending on the incoming data. 75 or 50 basis points, needing to discuss for that meeting. the question is going to drive the debate about what's happening in september. >> we look at the walmart guidance cut today. inflation is already starting to come down. >> it may be coming down slightly. it's another thing altogether. it's rapidly approaching the 2%

target. i remember the last time that he spoke about this. a few meetings back, the chair was clearing some evidence. i'm not sure we are there yet. it's an eye-popping 1% that we saw most recently. i wouldn't get too excited yet. we are out of the woods on the inflation site. i think we are nowhere near yet the convincing evidence that the 2% target. that's what they are aiming towards. >> the hot story yesterday, the white house is out. it's a nasty imprint. we are dropping for the second quarter. it would technically indicate that we are in a recession. the white house is out working the sunday talk shows, trying to change the definition of a

recession. do you agree with that? is recession more of a different definition than we may think? should it be fixed to the two consecutive quarters of growth? >> we have a committee for the recessions. we are trying to do durations. they have formally adopted the quarter number. it's a different growth. this is far less than two quarters. i think they are going to be looking at unemployment rates,

for example. look at what happened with the wages. we raised the second quarter print that is negative. the india will be reluctant to declare that as a recession. we will continue to have this debate. it's an interesting and important time to educate people on something that is fairly nuanced. they are actually trying to not call it a recession. i understand what the white house is doing. it's a little bit of education going on here for these prospects. >> to your point, it's a good thing that they came out through the heat form. the sparks this kind of debate. we can teach people what it actually means. in that way, it's possible. roger ferguson, happy to have you on worldwide exchange. i know it's early, we appreciate your values read thank you very much. >> thanks. your morning's top story,

walmart. we just referenced it, and they are down 9%. walmart is saying that inflation is causing shoppers to have narrow margins on food. it's being left on discretionary items like clothing and electronics. it will be cutting items prices more aggressively than it said it would in may. trying to reduce the inventory backlog. let's bring in stacy woodland, president of the retail advisers. walmart does not have pricing power. who does? >> you know, where there's smoke, there's fire. targeting this a couple of weeks after the reporters, the inflation impact on consumer, companies did not appreciate this. consumers are going to the grocery store and paying nine

or $10 more for basics. they are not spending at this point. they are seeing that across the board. you look at it. we monitor 80 companies in europe. less than 10% of them don't have higher promotions versus last year. it even versus 2019 at this very point. >> we are showing right now on our screen, target stock is down 4.5%. costco, down 2.5%. amazon, down 3%. is that fair? the market is not fair. do you think this could be a walmart problem? is walmart more than likely in the consumer,? >> it's never a walmart problem. walmart, is the consumer. this is the lower income consumer. they are spending more on food. it's a lower margin.

walmart, raised their guidance because of inflation. they lowered their earnings. they are going to be down in the high single digits. this is a flat earnings growth. walmart is actually in a recession across the board. target has a slightly higher incomes. they told us that weeks ago. bath and body works, told us last week that they are seeing the consumer come in. it's absolutely across the board. you are stealing more money from the wallet to put food in the refrigerator, something else has to go. that's exactly what we are seeing from bodycare to consumer electronics. >> i was in walmart yesterday. it has a grocery store in it. a lot of people there. i should have taken a closer look at the carts to figure out where they may be going. here's what i worry about. consumer products. my wife works in consumer products. we talk about this for the dinner table. everyone is trying to increase

prices to the vendors. they have higher labor costs. they have higher input costs. denim, packaging, whatever it is. at the same time, walmart is going to be demanding price cuts from them. it feels like we have this consumer product retailer. it's going to end very badly for one of them. >> you are correct. look at the ripple effect. it's not the spread between walmart, and what they are charging the customer. it's really changing. the costs of operating have gone way up. how do you squeeze this through? the same thing is happening to them. it's a massive ripple effect. walmart is going to set the tone in the market. everything else has to follow. your basis is not changing.

you are trying to move inventory for the bases. it does not end well. the ripple effects through the change, there has to be a push on vendors. perhaps they can afford it less now than any other time in recent history. >> you wonder about all of these things. it may come down today. retailers are right there. appreciate your news. a story. thank you very much. up next, the top seven cities that americans really want to move to. they all have one thing in common. this is up ahead ♪ ♪ even work works! i just booked this parking spot... this desk... and this conference room!

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time now for the morning rbi. the most random but interesting thing all day. it's interesting for the energy. let's explain. we are showing where people want to leave, and where they want to go. we are going to get to that in one second. here's the big headlines from that report. a stunning 32% of their users may be moving cities. maybe even state. it's a real estate website. that's why they are on the site. they want to move. it's not that simple. 32% number is well above pre

pandemic numbers, but shows how people want to make big moves. they change cities and states. not just get a different home where they already live. where are they coming from? where do they want to go? top cities, people are leaving or want to leave based on traffic for the website data. detroit, boston, seattle, d.c., new york, l.a., and san francisco. why not? those are very expensive. $1.5 million. most of those areas had extended covid lockdowns and school closures, even after much of the rest of the country had opened up or never shut down to begin with. where do those users want to move to? see if you can spot a trend right here. the top seven in reverse order, san diego, go chargers. los angeles, sacramento,

phoenix, tampa, and number one, miami. it's becoming the new new york. it's warmer and there is more rollerblading. three in florida. you have phoenix. what might they all have in common? they are all warm. all year. they are actually hot much of the year. why don't we bring that up? they see businesses move there, they need all the air conditioning. maybe look at the real estate data. onat on power producti. we are going to need it all. nuclear, anybody? is temperature balancing,

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we have a busy day ahead. we have the home price right here. it must be a big one. followed by the new-home sales number. july consumer confidence, out at 10:00 a.m. the fed, kicking off the policy meeting today. the decision is tomorrow. half of the market cap of the s and p 500, is unveiling their earnings this week. coke, gm, microsoft, they are out today. i'm tired just talking about it. let's talk more about the markets. we are managing the director. they have cheap investment officers on the main street. they have a rare market panel here. what is the top of the mind for you today? the rest of the year next year, what is the most important thing that you are advising your client right now to watch

for? >> the most important thing right now, looking at the commodities. what is applying to the stock market? a massive decline. it's across the board and a lot of commodities. looking ahead in the future, it's almost a 40% decline over the next 10 months in prices. that's a big decline. it's abnormal to see the prices are upwards of defining it. it could change your tactics a little bit earlier than expected as early as next year. it also means that it tends to be very good for technology stocks. we are of turning in the past. we are ready to turn on the target. they are going here for the past six months.

>> in tough times, they invested in software and productivity. we will ask you the same question. what is the most important thing to you? it's inflation. >>'s current environment that we are in, it's a very big transition. you are seeing that in the messages we are getting from the market. we take the signal for the inflation. they are showing this. this is all what you need. the message for the economy, it's going into recession. i don't think it's that bad for the slowing. the answer come this week when we are hurting. the economic thrills are stronger. we are starting to see the same thing. the earnings are close to this secondary action. it's critically important.

>> better for you, robert. we are looking at the macro trend on how everyone is doing? is it only that meaning? maybe my work today. >> it was certainly an interesting report. we have a lower income consumer shift. it's something to put you on a little bit of an alert. the other game i'm talking about, it's got inventory buildup. in my mind, it's a different picture in terms of overall earnings. we are reporting what we are hearing. we are navigating the environment. we are continuing to navigate it. it's relatively different for the economy. it's still a strong earning. we are coming through it a little bit for the second action here. >> it's earlier on a positive

note. different futures from the dow are down 9%. on pace to lose 20 billion in market value. is responsible for 80 points of that 130. what is walmart telling you for this solace? right now, at this hour, they are knee capping the entire market. >> it's high in inflation. they are trying to go through it. it's usually unstable. it's the right industry. it's the right stock. that's what i'm saying. it's going to be much harder

than others. >> we have active technology there. >> that's one of the antics. we are trying to handle optimization. we have different decisions. they are coming off of it. they have a great letup this year. back to you like i said, these formalities in the stocks do well. we have good company for this. it's a different trend. >> i like it. to end the show, optimism is right there. great discussions. thank you for getting up early. have a great day. folks, that does it for us here on worldwide exchange.

we are prepping for tomorrow. we don't sleep, because you don't sleep. wl seweile you tomorrow. have a great day

good morning. apple but soup day. we will hear from 3m, gm, and other ceos. we have others before the opening section. this is after the company has slashed the corners. we are dragging this in the

retail sector. dow, not going as badly. we have different plans in hong kong. july 26, 2022. it's time to do it right now good morning, everybody. welcome to cnbc. live from the aztec market in times square, let's take a look at what's happening with the u.s. equity futures. it's roughly flat. this morning, red arrows across the board. as we mentioned, we are talking about some losses. they are down by 127 points. most