>> let's do final trade. >> broadcom. >> your newest buy >> j.p. >> staying long ecp. >> josh brown. thank you very much. jim, farmer gem, nst semiconductors that's my final trade today. >> i will see all of you in a few hours for the big earnings that does it for us. "the exchange" is now. ♪ >> thank you very much, scott. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans, and here's what's ahead walmart's core customer is under pressure jan niffin gave us the very warning on friday, and now the retail giant gave us its outlook sending the markets lower, at least mostly lower and it's not walmart. sholify is laying off workers. are there any retail winners actually, yeah, and we'll go through them big tech on deck the nasdaq leading the declines right now as microsoft and alphabet are set to report after

the bell should you buy either right now? it's actually a yes for one of them says danielle shea who will make her case in a moment, and from lack of product to lack of labor. we check back in with one company that we first profiled during the pandemic. the ceo says job abandonment is now his biggest challenge, but, first, let's get to today's market numbers, dom? >> it's red, especially the nasdaq right now for the dow, leading, if you will, on a relative basis, only over 125 points. 31,867 about one-third of 1% downside the s&p is still below 4,000, 3926 the last trade. off about 40% and a 1% decline and the nasdaq composite has been the real epicenter of the downside down at its high 2%. 203 points to the downside and believe it or not, mid-caps are outperforming small caps and small caps outperforming both of them so a very curious market

dynamic playing out ahead of the fed meeting. also, watch what's interesting to interest rate because ten-year treasury yields believe it or not are on the decline today. at the lows of the session we were below 2.71%, and the reason why that's important right now is because this level, you've got to go all the way back to mid-april to find yields this low which means there has been a decent size bid for the safety of u.s. government bonds, the full faith and credit of the u.s. treasury, but right now we are at the highs of the session. we'll see if the rates continue to hover right around the 2.78 level for the ten-year and technology playing into that trade as well. watch the microsoft and alphabet interest rates going lower should be good for some of the valuations, and then we mentioned retail, kelly did. walmart and shopify, two of the stocks you have to pay attention to today walmart after it cut its profit forecast because of the effects of inflation hitting consumers and their waltz, shopify, kelly mentioned the online shopping trends may not be as robust as they thought, laying off people.

walmart down 8% and shopify down 15%, kelly a very interesting dynamic for the fed to navigate in this kind of environment with a possibly weakening consumer and maybe inflation on the way down, i don't know we'll send things back over. >> i think of them all gathering kick off the two-day policy meeting and these are the headlines. more on walmart in just a moment, but inflation and recession fears are front and center, and the latest cnbc fed survey as well let's get straight to steve liesman with all the results steve? >> reporter: kelly, with increasing conviction, the respondents to the cnbc fed survey are predicting a recession on the way and link that cause directly to the fed's efforts to raise interest rates and bring down inflation the average probability recession in the next 12 months surging to 55% that is up 20 points from the may survey and far higher than it was you can see there back in december along with that, the 30 respondents slashing their forecast for growth. in january, for example, they

thought gdp this year would be 3.5% now they figure it's going to be just three-quarters of a percentage point next year they brought it down by a full percentage point to 1.6% gregory daiko, chief economist, fact oregon the persistent drag from higher inflation, the significant stock market correction, the visible slowdown in consumer demand we anticipate the u.s. economy willexperienc a recession toward year end. forecasted to begin in december. unemployment ticks up a bit. there's half a point there, up 4.4% for 2023. the forecast, see the fed hiking 75 this week and all the way to 1.8% by march but known paring back as the economy slows are likely and according to this group, kelly, falls into recession. >> oh, the "r" word.

our steve liesman with the latest results there let's turn to walmart, far from the only company seeing a slowdown, companies ranging from sea gate to d.j. horton and carmax, but according to my next guest there are bright spots like grocery outlets whose shares run more than 50% this year joining us now is oliver chen, managing director. it's great to have you so let's just, you know, kind of give your kitchen -- your dinner table advice to people who are asking what the heck is going on with walmart what are you telling them? >> unfortunately, inflation had a really adverse effect. gas prices a well as other factors and energy, so what happened here was the company needed to markdown non-grocery products more than they previously expected. gross margins will be pressured in q2 and 4q as well so we're watching it. it was negative news it's a negative read phyllis theroux all of apparel, traffic

and mall retailers and others. however, people still need to ease and groceries are a big part of the business they guided revenues up slightly, taking the markdowns early and fast which is very important, and it continues to be an important great retailer with lots of digital plus physical. >> yeah. >> in terms of strategies next, go value we like grocery value outlet prize. 20% to 70% lower we were just on the phone with lvmh, louis vuitton and people are still spending in luxury gods we're selective and like brands as well. >> just to be clear on walmart, it explains the relationship, but you're saying grocery strong, non-grocery not strong other than grocery outlet which you mentioned, are you still bullish on that name should we expect the trends to continue for the next six months, and who else do you think is positive outside the luxury space >> yeah, we also like alta we think beauty has

recession-resistant qualities. cosmetics is uptrending as people go out again and need it for events and beauty, people are innovating there, too. canada goose, a luxury brand and consumers are willing to take price increases on handbags and luxury goods, and they can and they have been very good momentum, particularly in the americas, as well as americans traveling abroad to europe, wine and spirits is doing very well at lvmh. we're more cautious on mall traffic, higher gas prices, traffic. people want stores close to where they are located, and they are looking for discounts, so off-price retailer, grocery outlet is an off-price grocer with low prices and opportunistic buying, that's quite a positive there's still a treasure hunt when you go there, and it's a staple where you need groceries no matter what. >> yeah. i'm actually about to check out. i wonder if there's one around me we know aldi, little, a lot of similar beneficiaries from this. i guess the final question i

would ask is whether the trends have reversed at all gasoline prices peaked nationwide i think on the first day of the last fed meeting six weeks ago so june 14th, 5.01 a gallon down considerably. are we betting on history if we extrapolate too much from what we learned, or is walmart confirming that even with the correction in gasoline prices, the pressure sin tense, and it's not letting up >> it's been intense lately, so walmart is at the front lines in terms of what consumers feel gas and inflation was worse than expected in the last month they took some markdowns and non-grocery like apparel and general merchandise, but the consumer really needed more marketdowns for them to clear through these goods. we'll have promotions in the marketplace. unfortunately, this negative trend could foreshadow a lot more negative trends as well walmart sat very well-run organize say, but thereby going to need to promote a lot that. will impact the industry as

well, so we're watching back-to-school we're watching holiday consumer still has relatively healthy net worth, and unemployment is low. there are positives in terms of the consumer, but it's very much crosswinds, plusses and negatives in terms of this evolution, and earnings are coming down in the near term. >> the oc, oliver chen, thanks for your time today. appreciate it. oliver chen of koen. let's turn to tech with microsoft and alphabet earnings a couple hours away. these two stocks represent 10% of the s&p's market cap and 17% of the nasdaq 100. both names are down 2% to 3% today and 25% this year. cloud growth and currency headwinds a factor for microsoft. any possible weakness in pc and hardware sales, we're watching for a consumer gauge as for alphabet, it's all about online ad snapping after snap's disaster, also about the cloud and competition from tiktok. here to make sense of it all and tell us where she places her bets, danielle she is with options trading.

before we get into this, you were right in your sort of bearishness about earnings season when we spoke just a couple of days ago. >> thanks, kelly looking at earnings season overall, land mines, executives all over the place noting so many issues. i think it's going to continue to weigh heavily on this market. >> what about microsoft and alphabet, and i don't want to, you know, skip too much ahead to the ending here, but one of these names you're more positive on than the other? >> absolutely. so, you know, i love microsoft microsoft is one of my favorite long-term stock holdings yes, it's down today, but when you look at the way that microsoft performs on earnings overall, you know, you have 14 out out of the last 15 quarters that it's beat earnings, 13 out of the last 15 quarters that it's actually tradedhigher in the eight-day time frame post-earnings, so generally that means there's buyers coming in after the fact microsoft is sitting down on a key area of support right at

250, and i will warn viewers 240 is a very critical area. with the $12 expect market--maker move it's expected we break to a new low this year but the thing is microsoft is relatively need on earnings. the biggest move over the last 15 quarters was 2.6% we're already down 3% today, so i think it makes to sell put credit spreads here and give yourself a couple of weeks in case we initially do fall. i'm wrong if it breaks 240. >> if it breaks 240, you throw out this playbook. the halftime panel last hour was much more negative on microsoft because of the valuation it sounds like what you're saying is that high valuation is warranted and a seib of a stronger performer than some of the other names in this space. >> yes that's exactly what i'm saying, and what i like to do is i really like to look at the way that the companies react on earnings because when you look at the reaction, that really demonstrates how shareholders are taking into account what the executives are saying, and so, you know, when you look at the various product segment in

microsoft, you have a pretty wide range there you also have a lot of potential for growth in the cyber security and the gaming space they have a lot of brand loyalty, and overall even if their margins do suffer slightly this quarter, i still think they have a really good long-term potential and they have shown their ability to weather through economic problems like we're going through right now. >> sure. google, a different story for you, and this one will help explain whether snap's problems are snap-specific or not, and you don't really like the way the charts are looking into these results, do you? >> no, i don't like the way that they are looking, and i think it's really important to compare this against the way that microsoft trades surrounding earnings and the way google has traded surrounding earnings, because the way that i've seen the price action play out in google, it is just not positive at all if you look at the beginning of the year, for example, and you start with january to february, google made a new all-time high after it reported earnings, but then it just proceeded to sell

off for weeks on end when you look at last quarter in particular, it sold off going into earnings and fell even further after earnings that demonstrates that investors weren't looking at the down move as a good opportunity to come in and buy. then on top of that you have the split. if there was going to be any reap to buy google stock in july, it should have been prior to the split or at least post split, but you didn't have buyers coming in there as well, so i'm looking at all of those factors in addition to the fact that the market-maker expected a move and the options market was $6, $7 if it falls the normal move it will break to a new low on the year. >> wow, because it's 15905 now and then we'd be talking under 100. split was a dud from a trading perspective. it didn't really do a lot. so many different factors. danielle, fascinating breakdown. thank you. two very different conclusions for these names, and we'll find now the a couple of hours. danielle shay joining me five-year notes up for auction

at the top hour rick santelli has the results, i should say rick, how is it looking? >> you know, it looked pretty good i gave the auction a b-plus for demand by investors, straight up at 1:00 eastern. let's go through, it shall me. 46 billion five-year notes, second leg, 29s yesterday. we don't have 7s tomorrow baugts of the fed decision. they will be on thursday the yield of those 46 billion, 2.86 right on the nodes. the one issued market was at 2.87 lower yield price, a positive all the metrics were near ten auction average. the best metric i think was indirect bidders we always talk about that, kelly, that's your foreign interest, and i also think that the community is taking much less than their 10% option average down to 16 president 8 is a god thing as you look the at the charts did have a nice little pop at 1:00 eastern didn't last long basically at high yield low

price of the section as you see on tra day and looking into early may you can see what dom was talking about, the longer the ma tart the more damage being done to the price pushing yields -- excuse me, pushing price up, yields down, so the shorter maturities are still hovering at five-year, hovering at the lowest yields really very close since the end of june whereas the ten-year note yield on friday closed at a two-month low. we want to continue to monitor the recession issues, the fact that putin gets to monitor all the strategies of europe as they try to stockpile their natural gas. >> yeah. >> he's right there. he's not going to let them be successful recession in europe, either we're there or it's going to be coming shortly and, of course, with our fed meeting tomorrow, we're going to underscore the notion that the softening economy, of course, making interest rates, well, consider, 3.94% plus june 14 a high move for the

yield. that's a big move. kelly. >> huge, and it's amazing that the interest is so strong ahead of this meeting. thanks so much our rick santelli. still ahead, the senate voting to advance the chips act. should you jump into the semis and visa and chipotle and shopify all set to report later. it's a sale of three stocks. a check on the markets, session low for the dow was down 230 we're down 100 right now the s&p is down 1% the nasdaq is down more than 1.5%, the russell small caps are down half a percent as well. we're back in a moment ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,

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welcome back to "the exchange." the semi is riding a three-week winning streak and it's up 10% in july for its best month since november it's been a tough stretch since then and the senate voting 64-32 to advance the chips and let's bring in ylan with the very latest. >> reporter: the senate cleared the final procedural hurdle on chips over an hour ago and lawmakers in both parties are hoping for final passage asap so they can go home for recess with a win under their belt victory could be especially important for arizona's mark kell he's one of the most vulnerable

democrats in the senate, and the funding for chips is critical for his state. intel is building two plants in arizona, the largest private sector investment in the state and tsa plans for a $12 billion facility and warns that the pace of construction and hiring depends on the pass. a chips act. >> these chips go in all of our weapons systems. if you're flying an f-35 okay, you know, airplane i flew, you know, airplanes i flew in the navy or the space shuttle, it's so important that they are made here they are tested here, that we don't have to get them from the other side of the ocean. >> kelly made this bill one of his top priorities when he arrived in the senate last year, and this push has created some unlikely alliances such as with arizona's republican governor doug ducey and even kari lake, the trumpbacked conservative running to replace him and this could actually help with kelley's crossover apeople and

help him at the ballot box in november. >> a lot of kell eds the passage of the chips act could be the jump start that companies need joining us now is mark smith mark, i like your perspective on this because you're not an intel analyst or someone who has been following this or right for the space even to succeed, so why do you think this is so significant and positive for the whole sector >> well, it starts with a "b," $52 billion over the next five years going from the fed to this specific sector. that's an unprecedented investment in the semiconductor space so you have to be bull fish that amount of money is flowing in i have to tell you, kelly, a lot has to be r & d. if you have 90% of the neon used for chips in ukraine and you've got crypton being the largest exporter from ukraine that helps the gases that make the chips, you've got a be prompt you've got to get in there and redesign the chips we can source here at

home that's safer in the world and you'll need every bit of that 52 bill crop. i'm bullish because of the amount of investment being made on this side with regards to chips and how much will flow in there. if you have enough product it doesn't matter if people aren't buying it. i just played golf and i had a microchip in the golf ball this will keep going and the chips will be needed more and more for cars and everything else that we use in the new modern age. >> yeah. you know, i take your point, i suppose maybe i'm too cynic a. i don't want to depend on other countries for something so important. i just worry that it's going to be a ton of wasted money and that it would be better to let intels and the other -- you know, to encourage, incentivize and push them in that direction, tax breaks, whatever it takes, but this is just a lot of money to throw at this, and i'm not sure if there's a clear precedent for it working all that successfully. >> china and taiwan are doing the exact same thing and they

have been doing it for decades they have been subs diesing major companies over there, and we've allowed private industry and private investors toss do that here. now the u.s. is saying, listen two can play this game we can put money behind hour chips and our semis and be one of the largest producers of semiconductors in the world. maybe not tomorrow, kelly, but definitely the next five to ten years if we really put on our thinking caps and use all this money the right way. >> so, one of the pictures that the president is making is that this is beyond just specter industry are there -- i mean, is the kind of thing that they pass the chips act that you start to feel more bullish about the whole market and whole economy >> i'm feeling bullish about the chips the fact that they are down so much look at the major u.s. semiconductors they have down big and many i think anyone who is a long-term investor you've got to see if a sector it down 50% and you want

some, time to start averaging in the end. i'm not saying load up the shelves here and put everything on today, but i'm saying you should start averaging it. if you're a long-term investment, this is your retirement money, money you won't use for 20, 30 years, you'll look back and see this is a great buying opportunity and if if goes lower, buy some more. >> mark smith fired up i've got to hear what he has to say. encouraging to open my mind a little bit mark smith with well fargo advisers. >> coin boys is down as much as 14% today. what's behind the crypto drops and what's the regulatory showdown shaping up. that still ahead and we'll get the number one issue for u.s. supply chains. it's not chips anymore according to one manufacturing ceo we'll tell you what it is and how this company is adapting to meet demand. back after this.

welcome back to "excharges everybody. the eve of the fed decision we're watching markets very closely. we're seeing a lot of buying of bonds. the dow is down a third of a percent and the s&p 1% interestingly enough the nasdaq down 1.6%, so no sign here that investors are putting on the growth trade because they are worried about growth or helping that it's being helped by lower interest rates just want to point that out and the cyber security names are the biggest lag yards after btg downgraded zscaler which is down 9% and its peers down a similar range including forttinet and

others adidas cutting its forecast for the fiscal year citing a slowdown in china and potentially other markets. they expect revenue in china to fall 10% for the remainder of the year a reminder about soft patches elsewhere that are catching up with some of these names, not just a walmart and u.s. story. adidas shares down 7%. let's get to seema mody for an cnbc update. >> president biden's covid symptoms almost completely resolved and has completed the paxlovid though the president will continue to isolate. meeting in brussels, european union energy ministers agreed to ration natural gas this winter anticipating vladimir putin could completely shut down russia's energy exports to european nations over their support for ukraine. they approved a draft european law to lower demand by 15% with mandatory cuts kicking if if voluntary measures do not do

enough. and in southern india, a group of students very excited, the 44th chess olympiad will be held in the city of chenai this weekend and so excited they created an enormous chessboard in a playground dressed up at chess pieces and played what might be called a life-sized version of the game. tonight on "the news" the new tech nuclear helping first responders find missing people faster, 7:00 p.m. eastern. kelly, back to you. >> maybe i'll do a chessboard with chalk in the driveway. >> sidewalk. >> why not. >> could be fun. >> seema, thanks. coming up today's earnings exchange visa hasn't missed on the bottom line in five years and shopify options imply a 16% move in shares we've got all the action, the stories and the trades next. ♪♪ age before beauty? why not both? visibly diminish wrinkled skin in just two days.

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welcome back, everybody. we are heading into the middle of the busiest week of earnings this season, so let's get the action, the story and the trade on shopping, spending and the sofritos in today's earning

supply we'll start with shopify doesn't report until tomorrow morning but shares are down 15% today after the company announcing they are laying off 10% of the workforce the shopify shares are down 77% since january. kate rooney is here on set with the story for us today, and victoria green of gsquare private wealth, the cio who has the trades today welcome to both of you shopify, kate, what now? >> i know. this is a big day for shopify. not a huge surprise based on what other tech companies have done we've seen some layoffs, but the ceo coming out with a statement this morning essentially saying we got it wrong when it came to e-commerce we're back at pre-covid levels it's not the push ahead they thought. they talked about this is going to pull five years of e-commerce spending forward he said, you know, we were overly ambitious he took responsibility and said, guys, they got it being were we'll have to scale back in terms of hiring and then laying off about 10% of the workforce and then the big things to watch as far as earnings now the

e-commerce mix howie is veer is that? where are we on e-commerce spending and shopify is a great belle weather and commerce could have big implications for paypals of the world we'll be watching that pretty closely, the gmv, gross merchandise volume that really shows the overall platform and kind of how big -- how big it is, how much it's growing. is inflation also a part that have will people move to many so of the discounty are tailers versus going to somebody who works for shopify looking for the higher end. >> here's the question and maybe we don't note answer but why would they do the job cut announcement today and not as part of their earnings tomorrow, or did they feel like they wanted the two to be, you know, kept distinct in people's minds? >> it's interesting that they got out ahead of the earnings report it could have been something like a leak where they wanted to get ahead of the news and say okay, guys, you heard this was coming, but here's what's actually happening and kind of separate the two things, and maybe get the worst over with and say, guys, this won't be a

great reaction but it's sort of the medicine that the market needs to take and get ahead of those expectations but it's unclear why you wouldn't announce that during an earnings report the thing though to watch would be any context around this he did, the ceo gave a little bit of context, but i think the earnings call will be really important tomorrow here are the expectations going forward, not necessarily guidance some companies have been a little more conservative but what is shopify going to say in terms of business? >> victoria, we turn to you. the shares are down 15% today. near-term options. what do you do with the stock? >> 77% down and still a seller here just pre-announcing the earnings look better. what's under the earnings if you're giving out bad news i don't think that means anything good is under the hood tomorrow they are exposed to a lot of small and medium-sized businesses and they maybe feeling the brunt a little bit more as well as e-commerce slowing down because the general consumer is spending on basic needs, gasoline, all the

inflation pressures, so i am not a buyer of shopify, each out after a 15% drop i think they will have pressures and appreciate the ceo saying he got it wrong but i don't think that means that we'll have growth so if you're in a high multiple stock like shop, then you need -- that's a tongue twister there. you need to have growth catalysts. what's the growth catalyst here? how are they going to have a good 2022? i don't think the band-aid has been fully ripped off yet. >> a quick follow-up to that, victoria amazon is down 5% today. getting close back to its 52-woke low. between shopify and walmart, i mean, this is a one-two punch. granted they have the cloud. does it make you want to buy amazon because it's a very different business that's a big no, okay. >> that's a big no i'm sorry. maybe it's unpopular and i may look like an idiot by the end of the week i'm not touching amazon yet. they are under too much pressure pump it look at something like ups' struggles today, walmart struggles, you know, the only

thing working pretty well is aws. i know they are a little more diversified but you have to look at some of these inflationary pressures and if the e-commerce shift is also shifting away and you're seeing walmart shifting away from some of the clothing and other items and into staples, i think amazon is also going to get hit with that, so, you know, maybe whole foods. we've seen this luxury section market hold up really well, louis vuitton and amx and those guys reporting great numbers but then you see the wal-marts it's like main street is struggling. >> yeah. >> and i don't know how many other companies can say that, walmart, verizon, at&t, none of them are signaling the strength in the average consumer. >> very well said. perfect segue to talk visa because they are also reporting in the next 24 yourself who. the shares are only down about 4% this year they have beaten eps 19 out of the past 20 times. the only other time they were in line kate, what are the expectations here >> kelly, so interesting the last time i was in the office here probably six months ago you and i were talking about visa, mastercard, some of the big payment giants and what was

going on and then meanwhile shopify, you had all of these pandemic-era darlings doing so well that trade has completely reversed, and now vice, a and mastercard and amex are real the safe haven trades. >> absolutely. >> so interesting to see that turnaround visa expectations are higher because what have amx reported last friday. really strong quarter and strong travel and entertainment and if you've been in an airport lately or you're traveling at all, you've seen this kind of pent-up demand that people are spending now on travel and entertainment. that is expected to be a strong indicator, e-commerce, a mix of spending and any kind of respecial talk last quarter, we got a lot of commentary about the credit card companies and we're not seeing any signs of recession when it comes to consumer spend when it comes to the consumer. what are they going to say this quarter, inflation can be sort of a near-term bump for the credit card companies. higher ticket prices, higher gas prize and a little bit of a

payment bump it could be a near-term thing but that's another topic people are focused on inflation, spending and expectations are pretty high here. >> verdict gentleman, given what you said about sort of a consumer cautiousness, what do you say about waitza >> i'm going to buy waitz,a. i know i'm talking out of both sides of my mouth sounding like a bank ceo, severing terrible but we're making lots of money i'm buying visa. they are on track for their 20% revenue growth it's all about the cross-border traffic and all about the travel we should see a bump like we did with amex. we'll see a lot of profit pick up, a nice bump up in revenue. consumers are spending and spending more debt on savings. i think they have something like 3 trillion in process the payments in the quarter and if you look at some of the numbers that they reported earlier, i think they are going to have a good flow and i think they are going to come on heels of a large number expectations are higher, but i also like what they are doing as

they collaborate more with the per-to-peer and getting into more remittance payments visa has continued to expacked beyond here's my credit card and i think they are very smart in how they are doing that hand starting to partner with anything on crypto and instead of competitors with some of the fintech they have become collaborators so i see continue continuing to grow their market share and i think that's going to be a strong quarter who didn't spend money in the second quarter we all traveled. >> each if you spent it on groceries and gasoline unless you were looking for the discount anyway, victoria, we'll leave it there. appreciate it. kate, thank you so much. our kate rooney on both of these names for us let's round things out with shares of chipotle down 22% despite the upbeat outlook there's 24 buy rates on the street will this quarter be a reality check for them or not? let's bring in kate rogers were that story kate >> onlifts are looking for eps of 9.04 on ref niece of 2.2 billion for chipotle in the send

the quarter. same tar store sales projected to increase which 10.9%, a very big jump for the space chipotle has been a name that's touted its pricing power in the past, so we'll be looking to hear fritz executives on continued price hikes and how much room they believe is left to run for the consumer. analysts remember have favored chipotle as it caters to a higher income demographic that may be a less sensitive to future price increased and they have been absorbing them so far. inflation key as higher prices for beef, paper, avocados did weigh on the company's mar egyptian and icommentary on the uniization efforts will be of note though reported last week two stores so far have filed petitions but smaller than starbucks but it will be worth noting as well. >> victoria, drum roll, please which way are you going to break on chipotle? >> i'm buying the dip. i'm a buyer of chipotle and that's a joke on the promo they are doing with crypt cupsies and bight dip.

i really like chipotle i think they will be able to meet their 25% mar gyp and they are a growing business and on the cheaper end of fast casual so almost any consumer is seeing food, weather and it's being cut out and still have a great marketplace and as well as 22% and we're watching the digital orders because i think chipotle has this great growing marketplace that's very tech forward. 42% to 43% digital would be great and i think they are continuing to evolve and they capture a younger demographic that likes ordering on their apps they are very in tune with them with these little crypto promotions i will put out there not to hurt their earnings but apparently july 31st is national avocado day. sign up for their rewards you can get an avocado quacamole for a penny, so, look, i like the stock. you look at mcdonald's numbers mcdonald's did well. mcdonald's and chipotle did really well in the increase in traffic and i think i like what they are doing they are looking at their chipotle, and looking at all these ways that they can engage

their customers and reduce the barriers to how a customer orders from them and how they receive good from them, and i think it's a very forward-looking growth strategy. >> i love it victoria, thanks so much for all your thoughts and insights today and excited for all the results. appreciate it. victoria greene with gsquare coming up, it's not all bad for earnings this sector is showing some surprising strength and today's rough. coming off a 6% drop in the past three months is a turnaround ahd?ea that's next on "the exchange." ry is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪

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welcome back woman mart taking a well dark documented hit on grim guidance ahead of its earnings report next month, but the industrial names that reported today are seeing their stocks do better. the sector trying to save or fight positive today seema mody is here with what's behind the moves and reactions. >> expectations, kelly, were brought down so much because all the data from the industrial world came out so negative but

that gave the companies the ability to beat. 3-m shares on track for its best day in three years and the tock is really moving on news that it's spinning off its health care business which makes up about 25% of the company's sales. melius research calling it a smart and critical step out of the abyss. since mike roman begin ceo of 3-m shares have shed $40 billion in market cap and this is being seen as a bold move and being shared by wall street and it's being taken from ge's larry culp's playbook as the company sets set to split into three companies. culp remaining the ceo of avecation. that's really what drove second quarter earnings and demange'd manned for engines and repairs is up. sales up 27% ge did push out its $1 billion in working capital due in part to the pressure it's seeing in its renewable business, pointing to washington for not green lighting the subsidies needed to

make wind and energy more competitive. culp telling me he can't predict when they newables will turn a profit that's in aviation where he has more conviction. >> the sector isn't positive on that. >> right, exactly. interesting, these two names used to be the number two and number four biggest weighting on the industrial sector. >> wow. >> but because of the pressures they have been under over the last couple of years, yes, positive performance today but some of the other names weighing them down. airlines are also sort of clump into industrial basket so that can weigh on it. >> they are still doing better than the retail space for sure. >> right. >> thank you very much, our seema mody. >> coming up, we're following up with one of our out-of-stock companies that we profiled back in 2020. the group makes pumps for soaps and sanitizers and while those are fully back online they are facing a new srthoage now. the ceo explains after this quick break.

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welcome back.

the great resignation may be over, but job abandonment is the new challenge for some employers. that includes the maker for a lot of plastic pumps and packaging for household items. we first spoke with them in 2020, when their supply-chain went haywire amidst the push for supplies at the height of the pandemic. two years later, they are now short of something different. labor. the company is trying to avoid a fifth straight month of decline. joining us now is aptar group ceo . is the labor shortage shall slowing down your ability to do business? >> with the pandemic, customers want to see more locally produced products in the region for the region, and we are not able to provide all of what is needed. on any given day we are missing

about 15% of our workforce. >> so 15% of your workforce doesn't show up on a given day? >> there is just not enough people who are interested in a career in manufacturing. anything from operators to mechanics, automation engineers, you name it. while we would love to bring more manufacturing back to the u.s., we just don't have the workforce to do that. >> to that change in the past few years, or were you having this problem before the pandemic? >> all these things that you report on, massive numbers have left the workforce for different reasons, and there are just not enough people in the workforce now that want to do the kind of manufacturing that we are doing. we have raised wages by 30%, great benefits, healthcare and retirement, but it is just not enough. and we have to get very

creative with our recruiting. >> why aren't people coming back in? i have heard similar from warehouse operators, where they are pulling out all the stops to try to get people to show up to fulfill these roles. where did the workers go? >> yeah, that's a good question. we are not alone. we see this with suppliers. we see this with a lot of our customers. they will say that our manufacturing schedule has changed because we don't have the labor. so it is a broad-based issue, and the numbers don't add up. what we are doing is we are working with different companies and organizations. we are hiring afghan refugees and ukrainian refugees. we are bringing in technicians on temporary work visas from out of the country, but it is just not enough. there are not enough people who are interested in manufacturing. >> when people say the u.s. is

heading into recession and all the rest of it, what do you say? what do you think is going on with the economy? >> we are much more of an essential product-supplying company, as i said at the introduction. we make products for nasal sprays, allergies, inhalers, so on. so we are pretty resilient. we don't see the slowdown yet. clearly in a recession, our kind of company is much more resilient, because people still have breakfast, lunch and dinner. they need their drugs and they put on the game face even if they don't buy that car or a new refrigerator. >> stephane, this has been a fascinating look into one type of company. thank you so much for joining us. up next, cryptocurrency is dropping today but it can't be blamed on the price of that coin. why there is more trouble ahead.

it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there.

welcome back everybody. before we go, check out shares of quinn base. the s.e.c. is checking on crypto's. >> reporter: yes, kate,, there was an insider trading case from last week where the issue got a lot of buzz. coinbase is telling us in a statement that we are confident that our rigorous and diligent process as per the s.e.c. keeps on these platforms.

but it has massive implications for coinbase and for the rest of the industry. for one, coinbase has a framework that uses that is also used by dozens of other exchanges. coinbase could face a penalty if the s.e.c. finds that it was trading unregistered securities. you also can't retroactively register something as a security. investors are arguing they lost money. instead of trading some of these tokens, coinbase might need to register as a national securities exchange or a trading system. for now, the s.e.c. has not issued an injunction or cease-and-desist order, so and base can continue operating as it has for the past couple years. crypto companies have complained about the s.e.c.'s enforcement actions and are clamoring for more clarity on these types of things, these frameworks around registering and listing securities. the s.e.c. commissioner has said that anything other than bitcoin and potentially either , he says is

a security issue, so act accordingly. interesting case here. >> fast-evolving. i see some senators want to exempt crypto if they use it for purchases under $50. so they are right to say that we need fixed rules and rules that we can follow. kate, for now, thank you very much. our kate rooney. today's housing data is finally showing the housing market cooling off. coming up, power lunch begins right now. good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to power lunch. i am tyler mathis. inflation increasing consumer behavior. they say that demand is holding up just fine. the new divide means new opportunities that are emerging for investors like you. and po