we should expect to see a slowdown this economy is at full employment so we have a slowing economy and a whole variety of risks to the outlook that i've tried to enumerate, but we have great strengths in the economy, too. a strong labor market being one strength and consumer household balance sheets remain generally quite strong credit quality is strong you do not see some increase, a significant increase in bankruptcies and the typical kinds of distress we associated with the word "recession," but i agree we shouldn't just get involved in the semantics and let's talk about what's going on thank you. all right. well there was secretary of the treasury janet yellen speaking about the state of the economy

saying the u.s. is not in a recession and in 15 minutes president biden is expected to speak also about the economy she was very careful, kelly, in her language there to avoid suggesting that the economy is in recession in fact, she answered one very interesting question about nominal gdp, that is non-inflation adjusted gdp growing very nicely, but then once you throw in an adjustment for inflation it turns the economy into those negative gdp numbers that we saw earlier today. labor markets are strong, household balance sheet is good, business bankruptcy's slow, not the kinds of conditions that you would expect to see if the economy were either in or imminently heading into a recession. that's what she says let's bring back our panel we'll get to kayla tausche in just a moment. she asked a question down there. steve liesman is in washington

dan clifton head of policy resea research at strategus partners and a cnbc contributor steve, i'm going to begin with you. you have long experience and knowledge of secretary yellen, and how she speaks and what she says and how she says it what did she just tell us? >> you know, she's trying to walk that fine line between acknowledging what's really happening in the economy which is an economy where inflation is very high and americans are feeling that and have soured their opinion about the economy. while there are some aspects of the economy that have done well so far, and whether or not they'll do well in the future is unclear and there are decent investment numbers and the first half has not been that bad and it's funny, and i don't know if it's a semantic argument or if it's an argument, and it is entirely possible that july or

august could be the beginning of a recession, it's very difficult to be june because june had those high job numbers and the decent numbers in the first quarter when it came to consumer spending and business spending she is acknowledging a significant slowdown and think, as i know tony frato did, every time the treasury secretary says the word dollar he would have done a shot. >> let me linger on just one minute and get an answer on the distinction between nominal gdp and real gdp which is negative by 0.9%. >> yeah. >> am i understanding correctly but for inflation you would have a number that shows the economy growing rather nicely? >> but for the airplane and the engine we wouldn't be flying at all, right you can't really get rid of that, tyler. it is interesting and notable that there is very, very strong nominal economic activity. the issue is that how do we

count that we don't count it without inflation because some of that is just people paying higher prices and which means if you were to remove the inflation problem you could possibly have nominal activity remain at a high level and translate into a higher, real activity. >> tony, let me ask you, if i might, the secretary is selling the idea that americans are feeling distress and that most of that distress is attached to rising inflation, that there isn't a recession either present or imminent in the economy and yet one of the questioners said more americans than not say we're in a recession do you think the american public is buying what secretary yellen is selling >> well, no. i don't think they're buying it. i don't know that she has much better options in how to talk about it i listened to her very closely

including the words that steve noted that got my heart pumping and we got the question about the dollar, but look, she has an anchor to talk about clwhich is jobs and it is one of the strongest job markets in the history of the country and that has to anchor its discussion about the economy and it's true that no one has ever uttered the word recession when we have a 3.6% unemployment rate. >> it's clear, when you take a step back and listen to how the american people have taken a step back and we heard negative growth and it takes a lot of words to describe why they shouldn't feel as bad about it as they do, and then part of the message is a counterintuitive message. so the counterintuitive message for the american people is we need to slow down the economy in order to help mitigate on inflation, so it doesn't sound like a positive message to say,

we need to slow down the speed and slow down growth in order to solve inflation. that is really a hard message and all of the attacks on the economy fit on a bumper sticker and that's just a tough place to be when you're in the administration in this situation. n >> and kind of dancing around the inflation word which is what this is all about and let's turn back to kayla tausche which i thought was a pertinent question to say what's her tenure not that it's in any jeopardy, but we are going to start seeing the public looking for accountability and steve alluded to these others, as well, whether it's chair powell, janet yellen and other administration officials and so on. >> we know that the chief of staff has told senior staff that anyone who is serving the administration right now is expected to stick around through the midterms and there are a lot of open questions about what the cabinet and what the administration looks like after the midterm and that's one of the reasons why that question has been top of mind for a lot

of people and what i heard from secretary yellen today was something very different that the rose-colored glasses that the administration has been talking about. she wants to avoid the semantic battle over whether there is a recession because households were feeling so much discomfort. a slowdown is in progress and unemployment might brooch that 5% level to get the inflation down to 2% she said a mild recession is possible and that we've seen that in the past where maybe the labor market stays strong and consumption and investment really fall off the cliff and she paid particular attention to the global shock she highlighted china, covid lockdown and supply chain logjams and what's going on in europe and there's the bigger question where do europe and china go into recession and even if the u.s. is the best house in a bad neighborhood secretary yellen is acknowledging all of those issues and talking about those shocks saying some countries

with a dollar-denominated debt have a hard time paying back the creditors and she's highlighting a lot of the risks along with the bright spots and not trying to gloss over this as something where a recession is not possible >> kayla, thank you very much. kayla tausche reporting. steve and tony, thank you, as well our steve liesman and tony fratto as we wait for the president who will be speaking potentially at 2:15 p.m. unless that's been delayed, we are also learning about the health of the economy and earnings bob pisani is standing by with corporate america. the president will have ceos with him. >> it's sort of a mixed bag of reports. today, in fact, after the close, the half way mark, on the one hand, positive reports from industrial giant honeywell beat expectations and the ceo said they were confident and demand would remain strong in the aerospace business that they worked in in the second half of the year pharmaceutical giant pfizer

reported record sales due to covid vaccines and the antivirals and they affirmed guidance and hershey, which saw higher raw material costs and they were able to raise overall prices, kelly, 9.5% and we're talking mostly chocolate bars. that's quite a price hike, 9.5%. stanley, black & decker missed earnings and the revenue expectations for the second quarter and they cut their guidance for a full year due to a combination of higher costs and lower demand black & decker was a darling of the do it yourself, crowd during covid and you've seen it's gone essentially all of the way down and all of the way back down again. so the bottom line in overall earnings is the much-feared earnings apocalypse has not materialized estimates for the second half of the year are down slightly from a month ago, from what you see here, posting very healthy expected gains for the rest of the year as for why we are up today on a down gdp report kelly, the

market is interpreting this as a sign that rate hikes are indeed slowing the economy. if you want to believe that this gets us closer to slowing inflation and gets the fed closer to its goal then this decline in gdp would be good news because it implies the fed may not need to continue to raise rates until 2023 and think, as you saw with the steve liesman discussion flat market overall has a severe disagreement about 2023 with the federal reserve. they don't want them raising rates. they say they're going to. >> it's amazing, bob, to look at the level of the ten-year yield which i don't know what it's telling you right now. who would have thought we'd have a gdp report where inflation ate up the gains and you'd respond to that with the bond yield dropping it's strange. >> it's telling you there's an economic slowdown coming and the question is what the extent is it's amazing how many people have jumped on the mild recession bandwagon in the last several days including yesterday where several key people came on our air and talked about it.

jeff gundlach did and they're in the mild recession now >> thank you very much the treasury market has been sending its own message about the likelihood of recession as yields fall as we were talking about this afternoon and are way below where they traded just six weeks ago. let's get to rick santelli at the cme. what do you make of all this, rick >> it seems pretty clear to me, the biggest issue we have right now, and i hate to say this, but it's true, and i think tony walked right to the edge is there are a lot of politics getting played shocking, but it shouldn't be considered a negative, but janet yellen paints a very good picture of the economy maybe she should get an oscar for that because i thought it was a tremendous job, but if you look at the twos and tens whether it was the president earlier or janet yellen and i think that is very important because the only thing i see going on post-gdp is the dow jones industrial average, the s&p, the nasdaq are having

really good days i wonder why there's no good news sma sma as a matter of fact, if you look at the goods, new home sales were weakest since 2020 and durable goods was the right bright spot and it's not really adjusted for inflation and pending home sales were down almost 20% year over year and gdp was horrible and the initial jobless claims had their second highest level in the last eight months listen, jobs, jobs, jobs are good, but consider -- consider if we look at january and february, non-farm was 504,000 and over 700,000 the last four months have been in the 300,000s. it is slowing, and i love doing job, jobs, jobs, and i think it's a very important statistic, but it definitely is a bit of a lagging indicator and what's more, if you consider the labor force participation rate, the last look was 62.2

hoo was 63.4 pre-covid why am i mentioning that because janet yellen needed to mention that certainly we're creating a lot of jobs because we're not counting people that could be working, that should be working that aren't working and finally, if we consider the interest rates are going down and they've been going down since the last fed meeting and not the one yesterday, the one in june the bond market has had it right listen, we can talk about recession and semantics all day long, the treasury complex is telling us, the economy's goinging to do, to me, kayla, you bring a--mraus plus, they have a sun am of weakness bizzed on energy and europe and it will be difficult, imf here

>> couldn't agree with you more about europe and asia. i worry more about what could happen in europe as the woeld weather months come, but on the matter of the labor force participation. my suspicion is that it is as low as it is in part because people have elected to not work. it's their choice or they're making that choice either because post-pandemic, they don't want to do the job they did or post-pandemic, they are waiting for higher wages to bring them out of semiretirement. >> i couldn't agree more when i go to my strrestaurant, i get rotten service because there isn't enough to hire them and i can't think positive about the economy. think of the layoffs announce especially in big tech and

housing. listen, layoffs are coming and that's the precursor along with claims and i agree with what you're saying, tyler, in principle. the economy is slowing and as great as jobs have been and they have been great. remember, this recession that we're either going into or the one that we came out of with covid, this is a unique scenario, okay we shut down an economy, and i think that that helps explain some of the positives, but i'm positive that it wasn't because of policy. >> all right, rick thanks very much rick santelli. so what is the policy message out of washington? what does it mean for your investments? let's bring in brian gardner and mike bailey of fbb capital partners welcome to both of you brian, let me begin with you there's much hoo haw this morning about a bill that

apparently senator manchin had agreed to that is called something like the inflation reduction act of 2022 where do we find inflation reduction in that bill, brian >> in the title. that's it. [ laughter ] >> i don't mean to be overly cheeky, but seriously, there is no inflation reduction at least in the short term in that bill or any kind of legislation not this -- not just this bill, but any bill it takes a while to implement and take effect. there's always a lag effect in policy and so the impact of inflation on this piece of legislation, it's 2024 late 2023 optimistically, really 2024, and so looking at the next 12 months, what's the impact on this bill on inflation none >> do you see -- there certainly are -- i guess, on the other hand people would point to such

things as the ability of medicare to negotiate for prescription drugs which might reduce prescription drug costs, speeding up permitting on certain energy projects that that might be disinflationary, but whatever let's set that aside for now brian, do you think this law can pass look, woo don't know -- i don't think they'll be deal breakers for her. i don't think it's a deal breaker. democrats will have to keep all the house democrats onboard because all republicans will vote against it and to solve the local state and tax deductability issue is a key deal for a key group of house members so that's another hurdle and just looking back to the senate, senator durbin just announced that he's out with covid.

senate democrats say they're one case away from covid so there's a few things going on here at the end of the day, i think democrats will overcome all of those and they will pass this because it's too big not to, but they do have a couple of hurdles that they have to pass clear between now and getting the bill to the president's desk. >> notably, goldman doesn't think it will have much impact because the tax refer new raise kind of funds the spending so it's not really stimulus obviously, it will change some of the character of the economy. brian, more quickly to you, why do you think manchin changed his tone on this and do you think that salt will be, you know, a potentially fatal blow >> i'm sorry, kelly. was that for me? >> yes >> sorry about that. no, no, no i think salt can be because it's been such a big deal, such a line in the sand for so many

house democrats, for a core group of house democrats the mantra has been no salt, no deal at the end of the day, though, despite what they have been saying for the past year, i think those democrats are going undergo such pressure from the white house and democrats around the country. i have a really tough time seeing them sticking up to that pledge i think at the end of the day they're going to flip and vote for the bill because if they don't get this done now they're not going to the house is going to flip in november, most likely and this is their only shot to get a number of democratic priorities and they know that so they'll be unhappy and they'll grind their teeth about not getting salt relief, but at the end of the day they'll take a bill with no salt. >> hold the salt >> mike, let's turn to you and get some investing advice against this context that we're all talking about here of potentially a slowing economy,

high inflation and so forth. it seems to me you draw a distinction between companies that are ad-dependent, i.e., facebook, google and those in your list of potential buys, taiwan semiconductor, also progressive insurance and united health this is a fairly defensive, i would say, posture, am i reading that right >> think that's fair in terms of the three name, united health and progressive. definitely, counter cyclical, pretty blue chippy and premium, and there's a defensive angle there. to be fair, i might push a little bit on something like united they're growing earnings kind of 12, 13, 15%. that's pretty powerful and it's cyclical and there's a long market share story there and the other one is taiwan semi and

something folks typically look at, but i would not call this one defensive. it's cyclical and a lot of growth built into it, and you are betting on a semicycle and you're betting on cloud computing and microsoft and get good numbers out of amazon there and that feeds back to what kind of chips are coming out of taiwan semis i think you do want to maintain the portfolios >> a quick, final question you said the numbers out of microsoft were good numbers. why do you feel that way some people say they weren't really and also what do you feel about alphabet and those numbers? >> absolutely. just taking a look at microsoft, for example, i think you saw azure growing at 40% plus. it's pretty powerful as a microsoft investor which we are, it would be great to have a beat and something close to 50%. if thinking through the food chain and microsoft, their

growing demand for these high-end chips and that's a massive clib you can also look at who's making them. that's a serious te mapped so so with you she's okay. the other thing is online ad, it seem at the moment that google and alphabet is the best house in a dull moment and pretty favorable as far as what we're seeing in alphabet. >> gentlemen, we have to leave it there been brian gardner and mike bailey. coming up, we are waiting for president biden's remarks on the economy. let's look at the ram where it's going to happen, that out of hamilton, that is the room where it happens and some ceos in the discussion, business leaders on the economy. we will talk to the head also of

the mall reit kimco. he'll be with us and has a review of the consumer spending habits and the company just raised its guidance and dividend the stock up nearly 10% this month as we head to break, take a look at jetblue and spirit shares after the two announced a merger that would create the nation's fifth largest airline after the deal with frontier fell apart >> frontier shareholders >> frontier's not crying about ok a, are they lot that number! >> wow, up 16% ♪ ♪ d they're just a hair below

23,800 a check on shares of coinbase, and microstrategy and marathon up they've lost major gains over the course of this month marathon digital has soared 140% so far just in july. microstrategy up 60% and coinbase is up 31% and maybe the most important to note here, these stocks are still holding on to very big losses for the overall years. you see here, and yes, a very good couple of weeks and we'll

see if it gets better. >> thank you very much as we await president biden's remarks on the economy our next guest has a unique pulse on the economy and consumer kimco's includes home depot, albertso albertson's, walmart to name a few, and he raised guidance and increased its dividend and all things investors like to hear, conor. congratulations on that. >> thanks, tyler nice to see you. >> what do your results of your business and you posted, i guess, an eps loss accounting of some writedowns of stock in albertson's that you own what do your results and higher revenues tell you about a, the state of the economy and most especially the state of the consumer >> it's really interesting, tyler. when you look at the portfolio and the results that the team produced this quarter we're very proud. up and down the portfolio and

the metrics, occupancy gains and the pricing power are up over 16% and you look at our earnings growth of significant growth there, it's really a telling story that retailers are opening stores and there's a lot of demand being driven by the customer today our traffic is up year over year, as well and one of the more interesting tidbits from our report is that the small businesses are actually growing dramatically throughout our portfolio and that, i think, is an indicator in the strength of the economy and those smaller businesses really are at record demand highs for our spaces and grocery shopping centers >> occupancy stands with where, say a year ago >> we're up to 95% occupied today and we still think there's more room to run there and we see demand and some of the larger players and the anchors that we have as well as the smaller businesses that are expanding. it's a nice spot to be because there's a convergence of

value and convenience that the shoppers are looking for today and that's what our grocery anchor centers provide is a combination and we see three major trends that we're benefiting from through this pandemic and first the suburbanization effect that's the kimco consumer. we concentrated with the major metro markets. second, the work from home dynamic and the hybrid model that most are working from, obviously benefits the local shoppingcenter and those trips that you take have grabbed a bite to eat in the morning and the afternoon and third, the most important is the last mile distribution fulfillment point and that's what changed in the pandemic and target came out and said when they utilized their stores, it's 40% cheaper than using a large distribution center and that's why we feel that the future of retail is focused on that last one. >> conor, it's kelly here. are we in a recession based on

how your business is doing and can you compare and contrast today's environment with past recessions that you have experienced? >> you don't see the recession warning signs yet and we're cautionary optimistic as we see the reopening trend and their crosscurrents going on today typically what happens is when you see a recession and recessionary warning signs, th there's a pullback and we're still at record demand levels. you are not seeing any pullback in traffic the consumer is above last year's traffic patterns and again, that would be a retraction if it were a recessionary warning sign and we still have pricing power and our new leasing spreads are up 16% which means that again, we are able to push as the demand outpaces supply. so we're looking for cracks and optimistic about the business as our growth and earnings and we

continue to watch the consumer resonates with the omni channel approach they want to shop how they want to shop when they want to shop and it's the omni channel approach when they want to shop online, pick it up at the store or the pick-up program that we coined and launched nationwide or deliver it from the home from the local store. that's what's really working today and kimco provides that. >> i need a quick answer here. you mentioned increases in small shop occupancy it is up by 3.7% over the second quarter of 2021. what kinds of shops and what accounts for that? why do you think that's happening? >> that's the small business engine that i'm seeing strengthen throughout the portfolio and it's a combination of medical and the urgent care facilities and a lot of media rick care as well as quick service restaurants and a lot of services have come back from the shopping center.

nail salons and boutique concepts like that so it's a combination that's driving it and it's robust across the portfolio. >> conor, always good to see you, sir >> thanks for having me. >> conor flynn, kimco. >> you can hear it from him what's going on with the recession or lack thereof. we are waiting for the president's comments on the economy. a head on the show, we'll get the traders' take on those growing, i'm not going to say it again, recession fears we'll be back here in a moment on "power lunch. stay with us don't go anywhere. (cool guy) $30...that's awesome. (mom) it's their best unlimited price ever. (woman) for $30 a line, i'm switching now. (vo) the network you want. the price you love. only from verizon. ♪ music ♪ ♪ dream, dream when you're feeling blue ♪ ♪ dream, dream ♪ accenture. let there be change.

>> let's take a look at the markets right now. at least the equity markets all are higher by roughly 1% or a little bit more or a little bit less in the case of nak. t and this follows on yesterday's ginn and it is now up 350 points the s&p 500 up 46 or 1.1%. the nasdaq is up 100 points at 12,133 we are still waiting for the president's comments on the economy along with -- i see janet yellen there who spoke a few moments ago over at the treasury department about a block away from the white house. kayla tausche is at the white

house. hi, kayla. >> we've all made our way to the white house complex at the treasury department about a block away the purpose of the event is to hear it first from the companies, like bank of america, marriott, deloitte and tiaa, are consumers, investing, traveling, manufacturing, spending? the white house wants to hear from these industries directly, to put the words -- to hear directly from them you heard the president today speak about the inflation reduction act of 2022, and what he believes that will do to reduce inflation and potentially spur growth and he was talking about the administration's argument, echoing that argument that the argument is not in a recession technically because of how much strength there is, but the purpose of this event is to hear it from corporate america and hear what they have to say, whether there are bright spots in the economy and where there might be weaknesses and as we heard from secretary yellen, the

economy is strong there is definitively a slowdown in progress >> kayla and tyler >> the elephant in the room is inflation and perhaps it's an elephant we're all talking about now with the inflation reduction act, but how should we expect the president to talk about it, characterize it, explain where it came from, explain what the plan is for tackling that and do you think it will come up at all? >> i'm not sure it will come up in this format here. the president talked about it at length earlier today and the treasury secretary was asked specifically by a reporter from the wall street journal how that estimated that would have an impact on inflation. she said she didn't know, but here's the president >> you look really good. >> thank you

hello, folks can you hear me up on the stage here well, let me begin by saying i apologize for being a little late there is a vote going on that i'm interested in, and i apologize for keeping you waiting. first of all, i want to thank the ceos of the companies from technology to financial services to travel and retail, and we're here going -- we'll hear directly about the outlook for the businesses and the economy, from their perspective and how we transitioned from the historic economic recovery to a stable, steady growth and lower inflation without letting go of all the historic gains we made over the last 18 months. before we get started i want to say two things about the good-bye report we received this morning. first, it's important to start with what we know before this morning's report our job market remains historically strong.

our economy created more than 9 million jobs since i came into office in no small part because of people on this stage. our economy created more than 1 million jobs in the second quarter. the same period as the day's gdp report covers and our unemployment rate is 3.6%, near a record historic low. secondly, household and businesses and the engines of our economy continue to move forward. just this past week sk group from korea was here at the white house to announce $22 billion in new investment in semiconductors, advanced batteries and electric vehicle charges and medical devices. that's on top of the 200 billion in clean energy investments in america from other businesses since we took office all powering the strongest rebound in american plaintiffing in three decades. now there's no doubt we expect growth to be slower than last

year than the rapid clip we had, but that's consistent toward a transition to a slower, steady growth of lower inflation. there will be a lot of chatter today on wall street and among pundits about whether we are in a recession, but if you look at our job market, consumer spending, business investment. we see signs of economic progress in the second quarter, as well and yesterday's fed chairman powell made it clear that he doesn't think the u.s. economy is currently in a recession. he said, quote, there are too many areas of economic where the economy is performing too well, too well, t-o-o, too well. he pointed to the economy as an example. the economy is in a better position to make steady growth for congress -- steady stable growth is for congress to act. that's the best thing we can do. they're voting right now, as i

said i applaud the bipartisan effort to get the c.h.i.p.s act to my desk to sign into law which would advance the competitiveness and the the technological edge by boosting the semiconductor production and manufacturing. another congress should do -- another thing that congress should do is to pass the inflation reduction act to lower prescription drug costs which would reduce the deficit, i might add and help these inflationary pressures and ensure that 13 million americans can continue to save an average of $800 per year in the health care premiums. both of these bills are going to help the economy continue to grow, bring down inflation and make sure we aren't giving up on all of the significant progress we need in the last year i'm going to stop there and begin the meeting, but thanks to the ceos for joining me and let me start with you, brian, and thanks for taking on my phone

calls, pal from bank of america, i want to ask you a question your bank serves many americans across the country what do you see right now in terms of financial health of your consumers what -- what -- what's the bank records tell you about the financial health >> thank you, mr. president. it's good to see you recovering. >> thanks. >> at bank of america we have 60 million consumers and 34 million core checking accounts for americans and so a couple of key points number one, they're spending more money through the first 25 days of july 2022 they expect 10% more than they spent in july of 2021, the first 25 days and that's consistent with what we saw in the second quarter and earlier this year. the second key point, mr. president, is the balances are much higher than they were in the pandemic so if you look at people sort of $100,000 income families and our client base you'll see the balances go from three to five

to seven times more than they were in the pandemic and by the way, they have grown in the month of july versus june so far which is good news so they have money in their accounts as their economy resets and settles in. the third thing is underborrowing our credit statistics are much better than they've been and much better than '19 and delinquencies alone haven't gone up in the month of july and their ability to borrow and the home equity lines and the credit cards. obviously, the most rate sensitive parts of the economy due to what the fed is trying to achieve in slowing down the economy and getting more sound footing, mortgages and car loans have slowed down, and that's an intended outcome, and so even in accounts you can see that they're receiving paychecks. so the consumers are on good spending have balances and borrowing and the question is what they're spending on and travel and experiences versus goods. they bought a lot of stuff when

they were cooped up at home and they're now all traveling and experiencing the world through the vaccines and the condition of the covid pandemic, but unfortunately, as you noted earlier, they've had to spend more on gas, but the good news is if you look at june, versus july theyear over year has gone from spending on gas to 30%, so starting to come down as you've seen the price of oil stabilize. then the last thing i'd add is what's on your mind when we talked to them, the same things in the paper they're worried about inflation because half of the consumers in america, they're rent or paying on a monthly basis and they're worried, frankly, a lot of our consumers are saving and putting money in the market when the market is down and they've stabilized on those matters and we go forward. right now they're doing what we want them to do which is being employed and some of the stresses in the system and there's no discounting that and

we're trying to help the customers and that stress has been mitigated by the work that your administration and the prior administration to help people through the pandemic and also just the strong employment that you spoke about >> well, brian, thanks a lot i do appreciate you and thanks for always being available and i appreciate it a great deal now i have a question for the ceo of marriott who was very disappointed to hear they're investing in travel. it's of great concern to tony -- [ laughter ] the travel and hospitality industry is experiencing -- did experience a tremendous hardship through the pandemic, but the recovery now is experiencing -- it's a very different experience things look really up for your industry right now, and how would you describe the industry today and how do you see the path of demand through the end

of the year and nothing is guaranteed, but what's your sense? >> thank you, mr. president, for the invitation today i think what we've learned over the last couple of quarters is the resilience of travel and when we look at the forward booking data we see real evidence of that resilience and we think about our business through three demand segments, leisure, travel and group. the rekcovery's been led by leisure and it got back to where prerp pre-pandemic and we're seeing real recovery in the segments and it's been in the slower recovery, but as we see more and more folks returning to the office we see continued improvement and maybe the biggest surprise has been the pace at which group demand has come back, and we. >> group >> group, correct. we fully expected social group to recover quickly with all of the canceled weddings and bar

mitzvahs and family reunion, but now we're seeing strong and consistent recovery in business group travel, as well. so quite encouraging we get lots of questions about what's driving this recovery in the face of rising interest rates, high inflation environment. fuel prices and the like, but i think there are a series of factors. you and brian both touched on one which is the elevated savings rates we see across the country and there continues to be deep, pent-up demand as a result of the pandemic i think there is a bit of a psychographic shift away from consumption of hard goods toward investment and experiences which is helping our business a great deal and then when we look on a global basis, the continued opening of borders, the easing of restrictions that restricted travel is having a massive impact on our globals, and maybe i'll just close by think

thatti thanking your administration and in particular mr. reymundo, we think that will be impactful on the travel and tourism sector and in fact the u.s. travel association just came out and said they expect a direct impact of that change to be an incremental more than 5 million visitors to the u.s. in the balance of this year spending more than $9 billion >> well, i mean, that sounds pretty encouraging overall not just for this summer, but we're looking forward. one of the things i want to ask you about is the, obviously the pandemic had a profound negative impact right now as i look out there and i've traveled around the world of late going to various conferences, they're -- there

seems to be a willingness or inclination from business to travel more, instead of everybody sitting and zooming everything, it seems to me in-person movement of personnel and businesses around the country and i see it more around the world, quite frankly, seems to be -- is that accurate or is that just a perception >> in fact, we see two principle drivers. i think number one, businesses that are customer-facing, consulting firms, law firms, accounting firms, they will tell you that the best way for them to optimize their business is to be in-person, embedded in their customers' offices every day, and i think the last few years have reminded us of the power of in-person interaction. the other thing we see is rapidly growing demand for training many employers across this country rely heavily on the strength of their corporate culture and as they're hiring

thousands of new employees, it's really hard to immerse those employees in a culture via teams or zoom. and so the demand we see riding in in-person training has been quite significant. >> well, i don't want to get off on this, but there's so many new jobs on the horizon in the tech-related field that the need to train personnel to be able to handle these jobs is totally in our capacity, but it's needed. it's not like it's on-the-job training for a lot of these things so one of the things that we're looking at, our economic team, secretary, is how we engage everything from community colleges to other entities to train people for the need that exists in that community, in that community so it's totally consistent with what you're saying we're talking about potentially

a lot of jobs. we're talking about thousands of jobs but again, a lot of it requires some training. it's not all on-the-job training thank you very much for talking to me about that, tony and now what i'd like to do is there's an outfit called corning, right and you're the ceo of a great company. look, you know, we've seen an inflection point in u.s. manufacturing over the last year by that i mean i can recall in the last administration -- i'm not criticizing the last administration the previous four years and even at the end of our administration, obama/biden, the question was, are we still going to be the manufacturing hub of the world?

are we in manufacturing, where are we going to sit? we're going to do all these other things, but what about manufacturing? and so you've seen that inflection point manufacturing in the u.s can you describe for me what you're seeing at corning what's your outlook on the manufacturing sector talk to me a little bit about that, if you could. >> sure, mr. president first of all, you're right the last 18 months has been tremendous growth for u.s. manufacturing. and we've seen that in our results. and that continues, but there's some subtle things going on as well we just did our quarter 2 earnings so the numbers are fresh in my mind we're still having good strong year-over-year growth, sales up about 7%, earnings up about 8%, and so the growth rate continues in a little bit lower rate than it's been the last 18 months,

though but the good top line, there's a lot going on underneath the surface. so what's driving us is very strong demand for optical communications think optical fiber for technologies like 5g, broadband access, cloud, computing very strong demand for fiber optics. >> again, that's the ceo of corning speaking to the president along with other ceos about the state of the economy, including the view from bank of america, marriott, some major pillars here kayla tausche is standing by to recap what the takeaway is, which seems to be the idea that the economy is healthy. >> here, kelly, the biden administration is leaning on corporate america and leaders of these specific companies to talk about how, yes, while growth is slowing and manufacturing and travel and mortgage lending, the balance sheets are still strong, consumers are still healthy and

these companies are still hiring in most cases. here the white house is trying to illustrate by showing, not telling necessarily that the economy is still in a good place, despite the fact that this morning's gdp print showed a contraction by nearly 1% for the second quarter also, kelly, i found it interesting that president biden repeatedly said to the chairman and ceo of bank of america brian moynihan, thanks for taking my call there's been some concern that there hasn't been enough outreach and president biden was trying to dispel that notion. >> we've heard from the president a few times, from the treasury secretary when we come right back, we'll pick things up and take a look at the market. >> the president gets a human being on the line when he makes one of those calls. >>heaner qck ty swuily they don't put him on hold. >> we'll be right back

welcome back, everybody. for all the talk about recession, stocks are near session highs.

the dow is up 365 points, nasdaq up 1% after a strong day yesterday. the major question is what kind of economic slowdown are we in or anticipating? how might it impact apple, which reports earnings after the bell. tom forte is from d.a. davidson. tom, what are the most important things our audience needs to know and be on the lookout for >> the big eg challenge for apple's supply chain, we were looking for a negative impact. the other thing for apple is the majority of the revenue is outside the u.s. the strong dollar was expected to have a 300 basis point drag on sales this quarter, likely going to be consistent next quarter. so i think supply chain and strong dollar are two important challenges for apple. >> are they priced in? we've spent all day here, days really, talking about all of these challenges >> so the argument that they're priced in is the strength you've

seen in google and netflix which both missed but you saw a relief rally in both stocks so we're looking where apple shares are trading now at their 52-week high that a lot of the bad news is priced in. so perhaps they could miss, but the stock will still rally then it will depend on are their comments worth than expected. >> in china the apple products are not the number one cell phone seller but they do derive a lot of revenue out of china. >> it sounds leak they had a sale in china, which is unusual. but when you think about the zero covid policy, the channel e challenges with supply chain and consumer spending, not a big surprise. >> are you a buyer into these earnings >> i'm a buyer in the relief rally as reflected in what you saw with google and netflix, which both missed but had relief

rallies out of the quarter. >> tom, thanks for your time we appreciate it >> thank you. >> busy hour we just had treasury secretary, president, everything thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" begins momentarily. >> we'll see you tomorrow. thank you, tyler and kelly stocks are proving resilient here after wednesday's big rally. major averages all higher, even in the face of a downbeat gdp print. the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen stocks are higher, bonds are rallying the dollar is weaker the s&p is up 1.25%. every sector is higher except for communication services some of the media names are dragging down that sector, in particular comcast, charter, meta and dish. some earnings stories there to talk about the nasdaq is up 1%, so are small caps so it's a nice broad rally. plenty of red here we hit met