backlash. i know one. kardashian? it is friday, july 29th, 2022. good morning, everybody. welcome to squawk box. we are live in times square. let's take a look at what is happening with futures. this is the last trading day of the month and we have green arrows with the dow futures up. the nasdaq up by 156. stocks were up yesterday for the second straight session.

the s&p and the nasdaq up by 1% and if you look at what is happening not just this week where stocks have been strong but this whole month, you will see some pretty impressive numbers. the dow jones is up by 5.7%. the s&p by 7.6% and the nasdaq up by more than 10% for the month, so far. treasuries are indicating something different. this morning, 10.721%. it was the barn market telling you that the recession that nobody wants to call a recession is coming, basically. >> it is amazing, the fear of recession. we have decided that is what we are going to call it? i understand the potter stewart angle. i know one when i see one. and i understand the point that one off gave us the first negative quarter. maybe this one starts at one. i

understand people have an ax to grind. i do understand what you are below 4% -- >> janet yellen said something yesterday that shocked me. there are two job openings for every person that is unemploye , at this moment. >> by the time we realize we are in a recession, the market has already recovered. >> i don't know if you saw twitter, last night. he was talking about how you are going to have to continually raise significantly. how do you keep these levels down? >> both of them, i don't think

inflation is peaking. he still thinks we need to go much higher? >> he says, i am puzzled but we are already in neutral. it has countered everything i understand about basic economics. >> i am not sure everyone is convinced that these are neutral rates. >> the neutral rate at 2.5% only make sense in a world with 2% stable inflation. it makes no sense with 9% or even 4% inflation. conditions are making inflation worse and it is determined that we are indeed at neutral territory. i think if you look at what the bond market is saying, maybe they are going to take their

foot off. >> we are going to meet somewhere in the middle, that is what they were saying. i would think, at four, we are getting close. that is being very optimistic. if it stays at six or seven, then he has got a point. if it stays at nine and goes up from there, if we double for 10 or 15 or 20 years, if we double it, we go a little bit further, we will be okay. i have not had any problem with not calling it a recession. a lot of people did want to say, wow, the administration. they are still quick to say it is a recession and i agree, basically. and because of everything, it

is a really weird recession. >> apple shares are higher. $1.20 per share. revenue rose 2% year-over-year also beating estimates on other key metrics including margins. ipad revenue services up 12% year-over-year. slow, 17% growth. macro revenue also falling short. apple did not provide formal guidance for the ceo, tim cook. he expects revenue to sit accelerate. the company is seen inflation but the company would still continue to hire on what he is describing as a deliberate basis. that is very different from what we have heard from other big tech companies who have

slowed down or halted or plan to get rid of employees. the stock down more than 8% for the year but has surged more than 18% for new phones and new products in september and october and november are likely and that is going to create a refresh cycle for him assuming that the consumer stays strong. >> that is the story. that might not be as great as it was but it is still better than i guess people thought. amazon shares is another story. the company reported a loss. revenue of $121 billion beat estimates of $119 billion. executives say that the e- commerce site hasn't seen the inflationary impact that hurt it's competitors like walmart, target and macy's. the company ceo says demand increased during the quarter.

he said amazon made progress in bringing product back to stock and restoring delivery speed to normal. advertising expectations and guidance was also better-than- expected did. with today's games, the stock is still down 17% for the year. the good news is that it has rebounded more than 29% in july which is a microcosm. nobody likes being 17%. >> a 12% move today on a company that had $1.2 trillion market cap, that is a significant move. we talked about the walmart move the other day but that pales in comparison. a double-digit move for a stock that is unbelievable. >> procter & gamble. we will talk to john. what are you doing?

raising prices and making the packaging smaller? is it both? so get ready, john. one of the questions you will be able to field. amazon recorded a $3.9 billion loss for the quarter. and then you have got intel shares. this is the opposite story. the stock down sharply, today. that missed at the statements of 70%. revenue declining 20% year-over- year. 14% is the biggest top line for intel since 1999. on the conference call, the ceo blamed the shortfall on a sudden and rapid decline of economic and cavity and some execution companies. you are going to see that stock off by about 9%. the current quarter guidance

came in well below expectations and intel slashed its four year forecast. the interview is coming up at 11:00 a.m. eastern time. roku reported a loss of $.82 per share. revenue also missed performance to macro economic conditions including inflation and supply chain issues. roku says that the advertising market will continue to suffer in the current quarter and expects consumers to slow spending. stock is down more than 70% year to date and i think this raises all sorts of questions. to put that in the category of snap, twitter and alphabet advertising story. so much of that at a 70% discount, is roku now a takeover target in the

immediate plans looking? just a year ago, the box is so valuable. is the box valuable? i don't know. >> i think there will be people looking at. >> the question is, what can you actually do with that box? there was speculation that netflix at one point wants to have the box. do you need the box? cable companies have a box. this controls what the screen looks like but what do you do with the screen? and by the way, there is not a lot of margin on the box, itself. >> we are capturing those bureaus that are cutting the cable. even if it is a melting ice cube at some point. >> when roku was priced out of being able to buy it, now, it

is viable. >> in terms of operating, if you buy a samsung tv, you don't need a roku box because it has all of the stuff in it. i don't know. >> that must be the only old technology you have. >> that is extra and everybody thinks we are crazy. we have multiple apples. coming up when we return, we are going to talk strategy to close out the month of july. futures right now up about 91 points. the nasdaq up about 151 points. we have a huge lineup on the show to talk about where the

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welcome back to squawk box. take a look at features. upon the dow jones about 85 points, right now. the nasdaq about 145 points up.

july has been a solid month for games. the nasdaq more than 10%. let's go to the global market strategist. good friday morning to you. it has been a heckuva week in terms of earnings but also in terms of what the fed may or may not do. we are are you and what do you think we should be doing? >> reporter: a heckuva week and a good july. for the stock market for the bond market, i think it has been driven by a bit of macro and a bit of micro-. on the macro side, it does seem like investors kind of heard what they wanted out of the meeting. and took what share said is a signal that the fed is going back to its old ways, focusing on softening data and, potentially, engineering a dovish pivot with the market

expecting cuts at the beginning of next year. i think that has been one of the reasons that have been performing this week and financials have been underperforming. in terms of the micro, investors are already a lot more negative coming into the earnings season versus corporate analysts. anything that comes in a little bit better than sears gets rewarded and you see that in the performance of healthcare as well as communication services. in terms of our take, what happened this week does not change our strategy which is still to be cautious and positioned defensively for the second half of the year. we still don't actually have a high conviction that there is a dovish pivot. any kind of inflation surprise can pair that negative. and we still think we are in for a

mild recession next year. >> i imagine you think we have a little bit of hedging this past week? >> reporter: i think so. i don't think this is the pre- 2022 bad. anytime the economic data slows down. i think if we heard what howell said at the press conference, he mentioned they are very concerned about fighting inflation. that is the primary focus and they are willing to tolerate a slowdown and a small ride to the unemployment rate to get there. it is all about the inflation data we expect to get over the next eight weeks. there are some leading indicators that point to softening inflation pressures but not fully, right? we still have plenty of wage pressure.

>> i think we are having some technical difficulties. we can do chevron. i want to talk about what elon musk had to say about inflation. he seems to think it has peaked and what he is saying is cost is going down, for him. shares are looking good this morning, up about four dollars. for everybody in the mainstream media, $11.6 billion profit. $11.6 billion profit for chevron if you do it on an adjusted basis per earnings, you can compare two estimates. $5.82. i guess we can do

upstream earnings, $8.5 billion. do we do the revenue numbers? >> the revenue, i think you can. >>@, $68.7 billion which is well above. just for comparison sake, apples earnings fell 11% to $19.4 billion. so this is a lot of money but 11.6. >> the big deal is that this is so much more than they earned earlier. if you look at the same quarter a year ago, it was $1.60 on a deluded base. you are going from 171 to 580.

>> and oil went from 52 wherever. chevron also said it would buy back up to $50 billion in shares, this year. that is raising the guidance for the buyback. >> before, they were saying $5 billion-$10 billion for the buyback and that they have doubled their investment since last year. i think all of these energy companies are going to be trying to show what kind of capex they are putting back in. how you will be able to grow what you are taking out of the ground, at some point. and the ceo and chairman saying that the company also lowered it debt ratio to under 15%. they did things like payoff settlement costs of $11 million and they did say foreign currency effects increased earnings by $686 million. foreign currency having a positive impact. >> the mansion deal we are

talking about is much smaller than the green lobby wanted and it is more of an all in. there is something for everyone. there is also hydrocarbon developments to in the 300+ billion that we are talking about, now. >> mining is what they consider green energy. >> and your shared interest. i don't know. when are we going to hear from the arizona senator? have we heard anything? >> nothing, yet. i think she is going to be under a lot of pressure to do it. >> sometimes they like that.

>> that makes some of these new york politicians crazy! >> you get representation based on -- when we come back, the index up about 6% in july, underperforming the broader s&p. we will talk about those potentially set to benefit. don't miss the cnbc special tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. eastern time. the tech trade with cathie woodg to bring together data and workflows so that every driver and merchandiser can serve up jalapeño, sesame, and chocolate-covered goodness with real-time, data-driven precision. that have an appetite for performance. ibm. let's create.

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time for the executive edge. this morning, we are taking a closer look at the impact of the rate hike. we have a look at the bank stocks that are benefiting most. leslie, good morning. we have seen big gains for banks across the board after this week's decision. it is the smaller banks that have fared even better. this chart explains it all. there is a white wine and you can see and etf of regional banks and the orange one is for larger banks. you can see a clear breakout in performance really accelerating over the last month or so. regional banks are positive over the last 12 months while bigger ones are down about 15%. the s&p is down 7.5%. banks performing in the s&p. that profitability to charge

more interest for loan making as the rates rise. mike mayo describes it, regional banks have led the way giving more tailwind and less headwind. the bigger diversified firms are much more heavily exposed. declining with the market volatility. banks, on the other hand are seeing more of a play on loan making and deposit making. however, speaking of uncertainty, if recession fears to pore over into widening spread, that could disrupt the flow of credit. community banks do have to be mindful of their balance sheets amid the uncertainty and what could be a transitional period. >> i just wonder how that

trickles down to businesses and consumers trying to get loans. how much more difficult is that going to be? >> loan making is actually very strong. deposits were up, across the board. loan making, stronger but the second quarter is behind us. what is important is what is going on in the future and if you talk to people, there is definitely concern that we could be heading toward a recession. what summer are doing is a technical definition but an even deeper one would impact further kind of the psychology. if that is the case, people are already starting to think about that 2023 pivot. why take out loans now if there is the potential in six months to a year for that rate to go lower. it kind of depends on the liquidity position you are and if you are a business, right now. some people are starting to think thank you. it is

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good morning and welcome back to the squawk box. take a look at the futures. it is still three before we open but it looks like we are going to open higher. the dow jones up about 29 points. the nasdaq, 142 points. lots of earnings that we will hear about that could move all of this around.

including exxon mobil. chevron beating expectations and the same story with exxon mobil. the company came in with another earnings. $17.85 billion in earnings. if you break that down on and earnings per share basis, it was $4.21 a share. on the revenue line, it looks like it did miss the number or the expectation on the revenue line. it looks like revenue came in at $115.68 billion. looking for $113.7 billion but analyst putting in an estimate for revenue rather than earnings. earnings is what we normally focus on. they also talked about how they are spending capitol investments. capex was $9.5 billion and they say they are on track for capex numbers. when they were looking through some of these things, they talk about new lower in mission initiatives, carbon capture and

storage business. what happened with this? darren woods is saying in this release, the ceo, saying that the quarter reflects what they are calling fundamentals and the investments they put into motion several years ago when oil prices went negative. we are going to get the chance to talk to darren woods, the ceo of exxon in an exclusive interview coming up at 8:00 a.m. eastern time to talk about what they are going to do with this money. >> there is a similar number two apple, a little bit below. $19.4 billion, down 11%. what is interesting is that you have apple earning $19 billion a quarter and the $2.5 trillion market and you have exxon

earning basically the same amount in a quarter at $400 billion. >> there are fluctuations that come with energy. >> no one is saying it is apple but it is interesting when you look at the prophet and the perspective companies and it is amazing what one market capitol one company is at six times. >> cap up about 6% per year to date. >> we need those companies to stay in business and do what they do. democrats are hoping to pass a bill targeting climate change. joe manchin joins us now. and former representative, don edwards of maryland. i will start with kevin just to see if you are happy at all that it is not $3 trillion but less than 500 billion, even, at this point.

it is the anti-inflation act. is there anything that you like about it? >> joe, the inflation act, how is it possible to print this much money without continuing to pour gasoline on the fire of inflation. there is no way this is going to reduce inflation. i don't understand why drug prices have to do with climate change. that should be a separate initiative, a separate debate. trying to stymie the company during the pandemic doesn't sound good, either. i am never in favor of printing money. ever. it is a really bad idea after we have already printed $6 trillion. at some point, you have to stop and this is not stopping. most of this is politically motivated going into the

midterm. this administration needs to get something done, anything done before boaters to the polls . and the polls really tell the story. this is going to be one difficult midterm election and i think biden is doing what he has to do to try to get something through but this isn't going to save anything. this is going to be a really bad outcome for inflation. really bad. >> congressman, both sides of the aisle. can i get you to go so far that you do not like this bill because it does not do enough? >> no, you can't. i think it is actually a strong package. it is clearly not democrats started out in the biden presidency but this is a strong package especially when it comes to the incentives around climate change. both for the manufacturing of electric vehicles and all of the clean injuries she energy rewards. and contrary to what we were just discussing, i

actually think the $470 billion in savings and revenue is really important. putting in that corporate minimum tax will offset. this does reduce the deficit by something like $80 billion. you know? it is not everything the democrats wanted in the beginning but no legislation is that so i think it is a strong package and i think it was important for this administration to act on climate change. it is something that really can't wait and it balances the interest on the fossil fuel side with the need to invest in clean energy and the commitment to lower carbon emissions by 40% by 2030. i think it is a strong package. >> kevin, it is sort of more of an all in energy bill then we would've gotten eight months to a year ago. do you have a problem with

senator mansion? it looks like he got some stuff he wanted, a pipeline. you knew that would be in their for him to sign off on. >> this bill admits that you cannot go into the future without hydrocarbons to be a part of it but a better way to look at from the corporate side or the investment side, does this bill make america more competitive, globally? or less competitive? the s&p 500 comes global initiatives makes it less competitive. you have to look at the g 20 and ask yourself, where do we fit in terms of corporate taxes. the world is a very competitive place and the more you tax and spend, the more inflation you get and the less competitive you get. this bill makes america less competitive. that is the bottom line. nothing you can do about that because we're really running

out of time. as soon as this august break is over, we are right in the midterms. the polls say it and it is going to be a difficult one for the administration. it is not clear that this gets done, the way it looks. i don't like a corporate tax where other countries have not done that. we are imposing it on ourselves where the countries we compete with do not do it. you make it less competitive and i hate this part of this bill. there is so much to hate in this bill. >> [ laughter ] >> kevin, do you have a problem with that? i don't even want you to say it right now, kevin. do you benefit from it at all? >> i do benefit from it. i am in the business of manufacturing profit. i am talking about just general corporate tax. >> i know. you think that should not be standard? you want to take over?

>> kevin, you agree that it is ridiculous, right? >> no, i don't agree with you on that, obviously. this bill, by the way, is jampacked with incentives, every kind of incentive you can dream of. it is just another incentive and it is where you want to pick your poison. read this bill and you have never seen so much tax and the $27 billion fund for green initiatives? why don't you let the private sector do that? why does the government have to do that? >> we have made decisions around whether you want to manufacture chips in america and whether we should incentivize that or other things. my question is, do you believe we should be incentivizing people in the private industry? specifically as a special class? >> andrew, i go back to 30,000 feet and say what economy is doing better than that of the united states?

the way it is set up, the incentives in place make it the number one economy on earth. why do you want to mess with that? why do you think you can make it better when it is already number one. leave it alone! >> do you benefit from those? >> he does benefit from it. of course. >> i think kevin is playing unto number one when it comes to supporting the carried interest and not closing that loophole. i think this is a really strong package that is going to cap pass the senate and i think it will ease. it is already getting the support of a wide range of the democratic caucus in the house and it will be something that consumers can latch onto. i know i am waiting to go in by my new heat pump. >> a bit carried interest survives. i bet it gets bargained away because that is one thing that kristen has said she is in favor of. i bet they give it out and it

manages to survive like a cockroach. >> the craziest thing. >> larry, thank you. thank you both. procter & gamble are going to join us, straight ahead. later, tom friedman will be with us to talk about the headlines and president biden's phone call with xi, yesterday .

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welcome back to squawk box. ending a test version of the instagram app. many celebrities rolling back recently released version, recommending videos selected by algorithm on users home screens. one is glad the company took the risk changing habits from photos to video but he says they need to take a big step back and regroup. he says the number of recommended videos will decrease but will rise, again. what they are trying to do with reels and images is very similar to what tiktok is doin . >> everybody is saying, stop

trying to be tiktok. we just want our instagram back and we want to look at pictures. >> you can totally go down the rabbit hole of tiktok a lot faster than you can ever go down the rabbit hole of instagram. >> they are going to have to regroup. >> they are going to have to figure out how to do this without upsetting everybody. >> you are spending more time on what? >> i am much more on instagram but i started to go down this rabbit hole love to talk and it is shocking. probably an hour or two. when we come back, exclusive interviews. consumer spending and the in-flight impact of inflation. exxon ceo, darren woods, will join us at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. squawk box will be right back.

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anheuser busch beating estimates for the most recent quarter, especially when you're looking at ebita, joining us is ab inbev's ceo. ebita came in better than anticipated. there were some questions, i think, about numbers per share, even though the numbers were solid. there were questions about whether you will be able to maintain strong sales if you continue to raise prices and i think that's why the stock was off a little bit yesterday when the numbers came out. >> thank fs for having me here yesterday there was reaction to the share price, but when you look at the fundamentals of the business, as i said, strong revenue growth, more than 11% globally growth across all regions, ebita

grew 7% plus and earnings per share was likely down. there were some reasons for that, but mostly related to facts, and we hold cash in our bank accounts across different entities that we have. and as all that appreciates, can you see there is some coming back from this and the other point is a little bit related to covid so second quarter last year, we are coming out of the pandemic profits are going up globally, as the reopening happens and then you have taxes implications of the profits of but overall we are satisfied with the results getting a share of growth globally >> do people drink more during

the pandemic or are they drinking more now that they're getting back out there? >> i think during the pandemic there was a lot of conversations around people drinking more or less i assume the people at home enjoying more occasions at home, but they need to discount the bars and restaurants that were closed and now it's happening the opposite less occasions at home and more occasions in bars and restaurants, a tailwind for the industry overall it is growing, which is very important for us, as our own volume, the 3.4% growth during the quarter was very important >> inflation's been a big issue for everybody. and i know ininput cput has gon.

>> it was about 7%, and that was a mix of prices plus premiumization and the tailwind of the reopening of bars and restaurants and inflation is really going up globally it's not one market. it's everywhere. we have a lot of experience in working different markets. inflation is a new thing for developing countries like the u.s. and uk. but we operate in countries such as argentina that have 60% inflation, brazil, so we have a tool kit that we call revenue management, right, and we are balancing consumer power, acquisition of our brands, and we keep trying to memorize how much prices we put there because a company that's as big as ours

has other levers >> just in terms of how much more you did can raise prices ad not have people trade down >> it's very different across different segments, categories and countries, but beer on the average is very resilient as an industry it does not have a lot of things that trade down related to economy, because at the end of the day it's an affordable item. and counter intuitively, what happens in recessions or in periods that you have some stress, economically speaking, beer trades up and the explanation that most often we hear from people is that you might trade down on your occasion man

you might trade down and not buy a new car, but beer is more affordable if you stay home, you're going to treat yourselves, so chocolates and beer are something that people te te continue to have in their basket so people can enjoy inttheir weekends and barbecue. coming up, procter & gamble set to report. then later, liv golf comes to new jersey. we will be joined at 7:30 a.m. eastern live from the trump national golf club in bed minister, new jersey "squawk box"la be right back

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good morning, everybody. markets set to wrap a july to remember the major indeces all looking at solid gains for the month, and more to look to be on the way today. big tech winners and losers. we're going to dig through the numbers of plus, we are live from liv the controversial saudi golf league begins play today in bedminster, new jersey we'll speak to the league's president and coo about the big money behind it and whether it's

here to stay second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning, and welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square, i'm andrew ross sorkin with becky quick and joe kernen we're set to open with lots of earnings in between. the dow up about 114 points, nasdaq up about 143 points, the s&p 500 looking to open about 30 points higher. couple headlines to bring you. this is what's making news right about now. big moves for big name stocks. look at amazon and apple they are both higher amazon posting an overall loss due to the impact of the

investment in rivian but the revenue came in above forecast and apple beating on the top and bottom line with iphone sales continuing to grow. intel slumping after a weaker than expected forecast you're looking at that stock off about 10% this morning meantime, energy giant chevron and exxon out. we're going to be talking about exxonmobil's quarter with its ch ceo later on meantime, instacart planning to go public this year despite a significant cut in valuation for instacart earlier this year, it would take place in a year, as you know, has been a very weak one for public offerings, so we will see what happens to instacart, which i

use and like but have lots of issues with, too you willy a actually. are you instacart people in. >> no. >> procter & gamble. out with its fourth quarter result, revenue did beat analyst forecasts. here to break down the nun, john muller, chairman, president and ceo of proctor and gamble. you do talk about headwinds with the impact of commodities trade costs. about $1.33 a share fiscal 2023. we'll talk about the prior quarter, but just looking ahead, are you lowering guidance? and which aspects of guidance are you lowering >> we're providing guidance for the first time for the new fiscal year which begins m in

july building on the strength of what we've just delivered >> wall street, though, was looking for 6.02 i think you are roolooking closr at $5.93 >> that's correct. >> how much did you actually, organic sales growth, 8% increase in pricing, partially offset so your organic sales growth, how did it compare to your forecast from earlier in the year >> we were ahead in the fiscal year we went in with a range of 2% to 4% we delivered 7 on the quarter. and 99% pre-cash flow productivity you mentioned the headwinds. they're real but our team, the group of

people i work with every day are doing a tremendous job in overcoming those and delivering for customers, consumers, for each other and sheareholders of. >> as far as the profit just missing, you tried to manage through all these things, did china play into that and some of the problems in other parts of the world? supply chain issues? what was the primary result for maybe missing on the bottom line >> first of all, it's a penny. second -- >> the shares outstanding, john, and it's a real number, right? >> second, that strong top line growth of 7%, to your point, joe, was delivered in the contex of a minus 11% in china and minus a significant number in places like russia and the ukraine. so it really speaks to the strength of the broad-based business nine out of ten categories grew

sales in the quarter we built aggregate market share by about 50 basis points, things are good >> down 2.o6%, and a lot of times, ceos don't really comment on the immediate reaction of a stock to results, but hin this case, i think it might be more of a reaction in the world that proctor and gamble's trying to operate in, kind of what we saw with walmart a lot of these things are beyond your control at this point do you, and i've asked everyone like proctor and gamble, anybody we've had on, what was your overall hike in prices was it 8%? because pepsi was 12 was yours 8% and have you cut down on the packaging or the amount that you're selling of any of your key products has that been part of it

>> it's different across categories, but the aggregate number was about 8%. our primary goal is despite those increases, to increase the value proposition that we offer consumers. so we're working hard to couple innovation, which improves performance in daily use categories where performance drives brand choice to help offset that pricing impact so consumers see a value of creative proposition not a value dilutive one we are also offering things at different price points you can buy regular tide pods at 30 cents per load, simply tide pods at 20 cents per load. so we're trying to recognize the different circumstances that consumers find themselves in we're working very hard to maintain our build value, despite some necessary pricing >> hey, john, we did get a

negative gdp read yesterday. there's no question that the economy's slowing, and i think people immediately start to turn to, does that mean consumers are trading down, that they're feeling pinched by inflation and other issues are you seeing that? are consumers trading down we see it a little bit on the margin but when you look at the kwaurt, we don't see it broadly. one of the things is private label market shares as an indication they're up very modestly in north america and europe and importantly, we're building share at the same time >> john, when you were going to bed last night or preparing for the interview this morning stock's down about 4%. did you have a bad feeling about some of the numbers is this and which ones do you think the market is responding to at this point? did you have an idea that maybe the stock would be under some

pressure based on the results that were you going to post this morning? and did you kind of dread coming on we appreciate you being on this is the best time for to you be on. but did you have an inkling that at least initially, the knee jerk reaction in the stock would be 4% down >> i felt and feel very good about the numbers. again, they represent significant progress, and we keep building on that. we keep investing in superiority of our offerings, and if we do that well we're going to be just fine >> do you think inflation's peaked, john >> i don't really have the knowledge to answer that intellig intelligently. it's not entirely clear. >> interesting, inflation is so high, but the dollar is so strong was that, could you have better planned for the strength in the

dollar in terms of hedging or does proctor and gamble engage in that and how much are you worried about that over the next 12 months? >> well, i think that's being driven at least in part by the differential in interest rates ha that exist across the different markets, and with the u.s. raising rates, that drives dollar value, and we would have had to been able to predict fed policy, which is not a business i'm in so, you know, we'll manage and again, offsetting $3.2 billion worth of headwinds and delivering a strong bottom line growth. >> your consumer, you have consumers across the board obviously, are you able to see the stress in the low end of consumer at this point, with proctor and gamble how is that being reflected? you mentioned it a little bit.

>> again, on the margin, we see that, but again, we're, we have focussed our portfolio very intentionally on tadaily use products where performance is a significant factor in driving brand choice and i heard the guest you had on previously, our categories are similar this that they're some of the last ones that people would choose to trade down or certainly out of and again, we're well positioned with offerings that enable them to trade down and stay within our brand families if they choose >> you remember the '70s, john, a little bit, not as well as i do >> barely. >> yeah. rub it in. but i didn't have that big of problem with being hesitant to show that we're in a full-blown recession at this point. the unemployment where it is, and with consume are spending

still, you know, maybe not where it was but it hasn't fallen offer a cliff, do you have a problem not referring to this as a recession right now? s to it does it feel like a recession to you with your global presence, i'd like to listen to you and what your opinion is on this. >> demand continues to be strong as you know, we've got a very strong labor market, consumer balance sheets are generally strong so based on the slice that we see, at least of the u.s. economy, things are very good. no recession >> so you don't think we are currently in a recession and doesn't sound like you're convinced that we're headed, that we'll look back and say oh, my god, we were in one >> we could be but, again, i think we're, our

job is to position ourselves as best we can. we've got the right portfolio, we've developed a very strong productivity muscle so we can reduce the amount that we need to price and build margin tat te same time m value broadly defined and we've got the best organization in the world. >> we made it a point with the chips act that everybody who competes with china could go to congress and say hey, you know, where's my subsidy do you wish you had some help? do youly th think that's a good to have favored industries depending on the long-term view of the administration that happens to be in office at that time does that make sense to you? >> not needed in our case. and, you know, just don't, don't

bring any hurt >> all right we, i always talk to you about cincinnati sports scene. i got to say that the reds have really come around, compared to that first month that's the last thing i'm going to say that's about the best -- would you agree with that? to some extent in. >> they're not 2 and 23. >> they're almost 500 since then that's an important part of the cincinnati economy it's huge. they love their reds so john, once again, as i said, thank you for coming on. especially on a day like today on a day like this >> what's happening with the economy and proctor and gamble has a great run. >> appreciate you. when we cop bme back, is it time to rewrite the recession playbook and later, the controversial

saudi-backed liv golf league ready to tee off its third tournament the president and coo of live golf will join us live uh carl, are there different planning options in here? options? plans we can build on our own, or with help from a financial consultant? like schwab does. uhhh... could we adjust our plan... ...yeah, like if we buy a new house? mmmm... and our son just started working. oh! do you offer a complimentary retirement plan for him? as in free? just like schwab. schwab! look forward to planning with schwab.

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i mean, can i have a bite? only from xfinity. nah. unbeatable internet. made to do anything so you can do anything. there is a reason it matters whether the economy is in recession or not fiscal and monetary policy usually change steve liesman joins us with how washington playbooks are likely

to be different this time. good morning, steve. >> hey, god mood morning, becky. if the u.s. is in or about to be in a re-sessioncession, it may e effect on workers. more stimulus would do nothing but make inflation worse in each of the past four recession, the fed has cut rates either ahead of or shortly after the recession was set to begin the last time it brought them all the way down to zero for extended periods but fed chair j. powell said this week, far from working the fiction economy that's running below potential, the u.s. needs below potential growth so the only help investors might get from the fed, maybe a fewer rate hikes, but definitely not cuts this time around. and in down turns going back to

19 1958, congress has extended unemployment benefits, but janet yellen said deficit reduction is a new part of the reduction act. >> there is deficit reduction in the bill and over time that's, i see deficit reduction as a promote accompaniment to the policy changes the fed is putting into effect >> all of which brings us back to that controversial recession debate do people need the kind of help, given how strong the job market is and from jeffries yesterday, they said the number signaled a recession without any of imlilications. even if joblessness rises, the

fed can be effectively raising rates and the federal government will be sitting on the sidelines. they'll only take out the classic recession book when this starts looking more like a classic recession. >> when you say a classic recession, are you talking about the job market getting really hurt things turning down? but if you're still dealing with high inflation, can that be a classic recession? but as long as inflation's high is it unstable to dresaddress af those things? >> the fed cannot be cutting rates to help stimulate demand it was interesting, i read, we don't have a demand problem, there's a supply problem in this country and there are issues and

ways to address the supply problem, but there does not appear to be a demand problem. >> >> tthat's really interestin. i hadn't thought about this. when you look at the treasury market and looking at yield, the ten-year below 2.8%. and yesterday it touched boelow 2.7% that's an indication there that investors think a recession is coming >> it's an interesting question, and as somebody pointed out this morning in one of the reports i read powell didn't affirm that back down side reduction, but he didn't lean a whole lot against it i asked john williams, the new york fed president about it. he said that's been his forecast as well. the fed often comes up to a rate and tweaks on the backside of the rate hikes it's a bit more than a tweak built in, but it isn't unusual

for the fed to bring it to a certain rate and bring it back down i don't know, becky, maybe i could challenge you a little bit, are you going a little bit far, is that reduction there a recession? or is it just a tweaking built in, in terms of what the bond market has built in. >> if there's no stag, john muller just said there's no tag. and if there's -- >> i heard it was fascinating >> and if inflation's already rolling over, according to a lot of peeople, the stock market should go up oh, wait, it has it has since july 1st. >> june 16th, right? >> it's interesting, joe put your assessment, put your hands behind your head, your feet up on the desk, and you

talk to how many ceos? a dozen in. >> yeah, and no one said recession. >> becky, what are you hearing >> nobody's saying it. >> i listened to almost all the ceo interview you did this week, on other shows i remember a time in 2000, when i called the chairman of kodak, which tells you how long ago that was, and i said, did you see it coming in and he said as if all the cameras in the world stopped clicking all at once these things can come on suddenly, but in terms of the, are they laying off people i'm not hearing that either. >> i guess it depends on the industry high tech you can find some lay offs but broadly industries a

lare looking for workers. liv golf continues to shake up the professional golf tour and lure pga players away. maybe even charles barkley who is as far from a true player as you can get. we are going to head to the trump golf club in bedminster in my neck of the woods and talk to the president and coo of live if golf where they're ready to tee off. later, tom friedman will join us. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what year did the sec order all u.s. stock plants to convert fractional quotes to decimal otques the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues the aflac pre-pain show. aflac! paul is about to suffer a shelf-inflicted injury. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills.

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in now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what year did the sec order all u.s. stock markets to convert fractional quotes to decimal quotes? the answer, 2001 still to come, exxonmobil

ceo darren woods will join us, but up next we're going to head to the site of this weekend's liv golf tournament for a very special interview. dom chu's there for a preview of what's coming up dom in. >> andrew, the controversial saudi golf league kicks off today right here at trump's bedminster club in new jersey. it comes as liv golf continues to shake up professional ranks and lure pga players away. we're going to speak to the league's president and chief operating officer about the big money behind it and whether this league is here to tstay keep it right here throughout history i've observed markets shaped by the intentional and unforeseeable. for investors who can navigate this landscape, leveraging gold, a strategic and sustainable asset...

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liv golf, the controversial saudi-backed golf league that has attracted some big-name pga players kicks off its third tournament at former president trump's golf course in bedminster, new jersey and cnbc's dom chu is there as

you know 's he's got a nice hot >> it is the 9th green but trump national golf club is where we are holding this particular event for the liv series invitational, and right here we have the chief operating officer of liv golf. thank you for joining us today let's talk a little bit about the setup we have here just how much momentum do you have going into this event? >> we feel great our proposition has been pretty simple man simple we've had a ton of success in london wasn't sure what we would expect to get this off the ground, but the fans have loved the individual and team concept. loved what we saw in portland and really excited to have our third event here >> what exactly is the vision of

liv golf with regard to how you are going to approach the game we know there has been friction here, but ultimately, what are you trying to do with your vision of golf going forward in. >> we believe liv golf is the future, and we arein. >> we believe liv golf is the future, n. >> we believe liv golf is the future, . >> we believe liv golf is the future, and we are here. we think younger, faster pace, 54 holes, team and individual concept, all of those things we think allow us to provide a unique product offering in the world of golf that lashas not bn done before. >> one of the interesting things about your background, you're a former nfl guy, a former major league soccer guy as well. you just came to liv golf from the tampa bay buccaneers where you headed up branding and corporate development. what exactly can that do on that

side of the bessusiness with nfl >> i think what i have learned from sports, at the end of the day, fans want to be e entertained. we look at this as our arena, and how do we create the best experience for our fans who will come here and take in golf you can have an amazing time watching golfers, but we want them entertained all day long. >> there's been a lot of talk, a lot of controversy with regard to your vision of golf, and when i say yours, mean liv's has there been any dialog between your side and the pga tour side about whether or not there can be any kind of co-existence with their division and yours? >> we would like to co-exist

we thit mnk the market is big enough to have both product offerings in the space we haven't been able to have that dialog yet, but we hope we're able to. >> i know andrew's got a question in the studio >> i actually have a couple questions. one revolves around competition and what you think competition in golf should look like and what the implications should be for sports longer term in the united states given that most of them have historically had a monopoly i want to ask you a different question, because it relates to the saudi piece of this. you decided on a personal level to take this job, knowing who was backing this league, and i want you to take us inside your mind about that, how much money played a role, how you think about the human right abuses that have taken place in saudi and what you think players and the public should be thinking about, especially at a time when we keep hearing that millennials and others really do care about following the money.

>> listen, from our perspective or from my perspective, the opportunity to build something from the ground up, and that was something that was most exciting to me, we are backed by pism tha invests all over the world including in the united states so from my standpoint, this is another prudent investment that they're making to provide players a world class experience that's been my take. >> to the extent there are people i'm sure who said to you, look, you should not be in business with these people, what did you think of that? >> again, from my end, this is a commercial investment that a fund is making a private equity fund is making in the world of golf, and they do business all over the world and including in many companies

in the united states. and we are just one of those >> speak then, i don't, i don't know how far we're going to get on that. speak to the larger issue. if you're the nba or major league baseball or the nfl, name your league. are you of the view ha tthat the should be more competition in all these paspaces and do you lk at this as the first break in all this >> i can't speak for all leagues. i can talk about what we look at from golf. from our end, we are providing, we've looked at the space and launching a new product, we're looking at white space what is it we're trying to solve? i think that what we're trying to solve at this point in time is golf currently is an aging product. how do you hakmake it younger, faster, more entertain being the concept of teams which exists research in every other

stick and ball sport just does not exist m in golf today we thk has a space in the world of golf >> okay, so i'd like to button this up a little bit with one big question with regard to the player side of things and the controversy around liv golf versus the pga tour and the tour out of europe. that is right now official world golf ranking points are not given out for liv golf events. >> yeah. >> which may impact the potential for certain players on your tour to be able to compete, specks kri in majors >> yeah. >> what exactly is the dialog going to be from your side going forward with regard to whether or not this hud jbe an exhibitin type league where people play for the money versus whether they should be given a ranking or status in majors in the game of golf?

>> we absolutely deserve world ranking points we have put or application in and is going through the process. owgr is an independent group that is there to define the advancing of golf players, and we have today, if you look at our events, they're growing stronger and stronger and stronger we're running an event that's going to be one of the strongest fields this golf this week this the world of golf. so absolute ly we deserve those points, and if you don't give them the points the rankings aren't worth a whole lot >> thank you so much andrew, i want to tell you something about a tool that maybe a lot of people don't know he is an engineer by trade that used to work at ge health care and is a nbc alum many

so he's got a lot of different views on this. it's going to be an interesting event for sure, andrew >> looking forward to all of it and lots of questions and hopefully we will have time to talk to him more in the future when we come back, we're going to check some tech stocks on the move this morning. you don't want to miss a cnbc special, called the "tech trade", with cathie wood at 6:00 p.m. eteasrn as we're trying to make sense of what's going on in tech land back after this.

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we do have some tech earnings out after the bell, and those stocks are on the move this morning. intel posting a surprise second quarter loss and intel cut its outlook for the full year blaming a rapid decline in economic activity the slump in purchases of pcs and delays a drop in total pc sales for the year, it's down by 11.25%. apple shares climbing on the

back of better than expected results. this is enough for the street. the street liked what it saw the stock up by about 2.3% and then there are shares of amazon, which are surging on the back of its better than expected revenue in the second quarter and an optimistic outlook for the current quarter. the online sales pull back from pandemic highs, but it was much better than the street had been expecting. the ad business proving to be a real bright spot, too. and can you see that stock up by more than 11%, which is a huge move this is a company with a market cap of more than $1.2 trillion so you add another 11% on top of that today, and that is really something to get you to sit up and pay attention. outside of technology, we've heard from oil giants, chevron and exxonmobil this morning.

chevron earnings $5.82 per share. chevron said they would by back shares exxon mobile revenue fell a little short far few analysts estimate revenue than those who estimate earnings ex ex exxon exxonmobil's ceo will be joining us coming back we'll talk nancy pelosi's trip to taiwan and much more take a look at the futures this morning. it's been a strong week and even stronger month the nasdaq is up by more than 10% for the month of july. this is the last trading day

dow futures up 61. the s&p up by 23 "squawk box" will be right back. . hm... i know how difficult these calls can be. not with schwab. nina made it easier to set up our financial plan. we can check in on it anytime. it changes when our goals change. planning can't be that easy. actually, it can be, carl. look forward to planning with schwab. schwab! ♪♪ oh, that's wrong. what's wrong? your swing. that's terrible... you gotta put your knees into it, put your knees into it. that's too smooth. too smooth? watch this. ♪♪ you try it. ♪♪ better. ♪♪ oh, you gotta move your feet.

charles. alright, alright, i'm going. i'm going.

welcome back to "squawk box. president biden and chinese president xi jinping had their fifth phone call yesterday for more than two hours to talk about headlines from around the globe. tom friedman is the author of "hot, flat and crowded" and so many other books

let's talk about the call that the president had about president xi, what it means if it means anything at all, and how concerned you are about china potentially taking a look or doing more than taking a look at taiwan, given some of the reports that a lot of folks in washington seem to be very concerned. >> well, andrew, good to be with you. i think we should think about the context of this phone call, and the most important context of this phone call is that back in february when the ukraine war started, president biden, his national security advisor jake sullivan, had some really tough conversations with china and president xi, and those conversations were basically the united states telling china do not enter the ukraine war on russia's side. do not provide military equipment to russia. and lo and behold, china for its own reasons and own national interest did not do that andrew, that was a really,

really big thing a really important development that china has not given military aide to russia. now given that, it seems to me, my grandma used to say, andrew, never fight two super powers at once just a little thing grandma used to say we now are focussed, have to be focussed, on basically ukraine pushing russia out of ukraine. that is hugely important china's playing an important role in that right now is the time that good relations with china, open dialog and not doing anything to provoke them, because eyes on the prize, the prize is ukraine pushing russia out of ukraine, and for that, china is helping us, again, for its own reasons i wouldn't see poking the bear right now. in >> so tom, what does grandma say about taiwan in terms of that being the next strategic piece in this larger geopolitical battle, frankly, that's taking

place, even if we don't want to call it that >> yeah, grandma had something to say about taiwan, too, andrew i love taiwan, an amazing country. there's only one thing that grandma used to say, that's its geography. it's still a tiny island off the coast of a giant mainland. i'm hugely impressed with taiwan i lovie its democracy and its technology i just wouldn't be poking china right now. it's just not the time to do it. nothing particularly is on the agenda right now and grandma always said countries that forget their geography can get in a lot of trouble. >> so what do you tell nancy pelosi then in a lot of folks at the "new york times," our paper, saying inside the white house they're very concerned about her going over there >> just stay home. this whole trip is completely out of context eyes on the prize. the prize is ukraine defeating

russia china's helping us do that right now. don't poke them, especially at a time when xi jinping's about to try to secure a third term in power. i think terrible covid strategy, lots of problems with, you know, with deaths at home. he'd love a wag the tail option, i'm i'm sure, wag the dog option, excuse me, by distracting attention from his problems at home by doing something in taiwan he's he's smart think of the context don't give him the opportunity right now. >> i'm sure you saw the interview with the liv golf guy. you probably have a lot of thoughts about that. not everybody knows, has your handy cap gone up at all >> this is a golf club behind me, so you know what i'm doing

today. >> i want to get his views on this in a moment >> i want to get your views on this, and i know i can ask you this question. i was hoping to get, it's an issue related to the china discussion i know you probably saw this it is "the new york post" that talks about president biden, his son's business dealings in china. it's "the new york post," it's not the washington post. it's not the "new york times." in your view, would you say there's been a reluctance for major media outlets to pursue that story and is that okay, you think in or is it important in do you feel it's important that we follow the evidence here to see where it all leads whether the president's son benefitted from influence peddling or even the president himself may have benefitted, rebound himself, from influence peddling is it a story? >> absolutely. you pursue these stories unto their inner most parts

i know the "new york times" felt it didn't pursue it originally as much as it wanted to. t and it followed up i'm not an expert on the story, but i'm all for getting to the truth wherever it leads. >> it plays into the pelosi piece. there are people on the other side of the aisle, not from where you are, but think that it's very important for her to go there and backing down now sends a very bad signal to the rest of the world that we can be bullied or cajoled by president xi or mainland china i don't know that it sends a bad signal >> ultimately, i'm nancy pelosi, i'd say i'm not backing down, but i'm postponing the trip. >> it almost looks like president biden does have some type of weird relationship with china that could have something,

if we knew the rest of this other story and where that ultimately leads, maybe that informs -- >> joe, this is hard core geopolitics. as i said at the beginning, china did something really important in the most important jae geopolitical story of our time right now, and that is the ukraine effort to push russia out of ukraine china did that for its own reasons, but that is very important to our geopolitical interests, and we should be focussed on taesustaining, keep china out of that war. don't fight two super powers at once that's stupid. in i >> i want to switch to golf there are so many questions about the relationship the u.s.

should or should not have with saudi arabia given the human rights abuses. the president was just there there was the fist bump. does that give us -- is there a penalty box in is there a time clock on the penalty box how should people think about this . >> well, look, we're mixing a lot of things here, we're mixing the persian gulf and golf. it's hugely important that reforms continue to saudi arabia the rbleligious reforms, saudi arabia is the beating heart of the islamic world. so i think you can on the one hand condemn them harshly for what they did to khashoggi you can keep an arm's distance between the president and

current leader, but the fate and future of saudi arabia is a hugely important u.s. strategic interest as for the liv golf tour, i think that's a wholly different kettle of fish i think it was a huge mistake from saudi arabia. basically they spent $1.5 billion taking the murder of khashoggi from the newspapers to the sports pages. that's the biggest thing that they've done i don't think it's a serious thing, but when i grew up, i loved to go to the circus and watch acrobats on the trapeze, but i never confused them with the olympics >> we hope you have a great weekend. look forward to talking to you again. always so smart on so much coming up, our exclusive interview with exxonmobil ceo darren woods that's next. right now as we head to a break, let's look at the futures. dow up by about 60 points, nasdaq up by 115, the s&p up by

23 last tayrading day of the month. tay tuned. you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc cnbc..

good morning here comes the finish line for july stocks showing healthy gains for the month. we're going to get you up to speed before the opening bell. and oil majors out with new earnings, the numbers from chevron and exxonmobil and the exclusive interview with the ceo of exxon, darren woods we have the fed's measure of inflation on the way the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning, and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square, where we're talf

no definitely hotnot in a recessioa this point i actually agree with that assessment >> that we're not in a recession? >> i do. >> because we're in a strong jobs market. when you look at a company like apple, exxonmobil, what they earned today >> and i am, i have fears of a recession. so everybody's right it has heightened fears when you get two negative quarters. >> everybody's feeling inflation. >> u.s. equity futures >> and janet yellin saying we haven't seen this since the '70s, people are getting hurt. >> i have turned into joe biden's water boy. that's where -- >> these are actual tweets >> these are good things, aren't they that we can play outside our

comfort zone nasdaq is on pace to break a three-month losing streak. treasury yields another indicator that maybe a slowtown slowdown is more. chevron out with quarterly results. increased the top end of its share buyback guidance which is, we could discuss this quite a bit. we could discuss the actual number itself, which is conjures up wind fall profits among certain people, buying back that

much stock do they want to do long-term projects because it's not going to pay off >> these oil companies will tell you that half of have investors are people who live on fixed incomes. and if you take away their dividends, that's an issue they're pending more on capex, all of these companies are >> but on different types of capex, just like supposedly the new new new manchin field. some of that is probably carbon capture. procter & gamble also out with results. let's see where that stock has come back from the initial knee jerk reaction. it's down 3.6% company earned $1.21 a share revenue did, however, beat forecasts. the company predicted organic sales growth of 3% to 5%

that's what they were predicting last and beat it that would be the slowest rate since 2019 john muller joined us on the show we asked him in light of the economic slow down if he sees consumers trading down on the products they buy. >> we see it a little bit on the ma margin importantly, we're building share at the same time >> once again, shares of procter & gamble, you can see pretty quick reaction to the numbers, that's impacting the dow covid-related news, the white house expecting to roll out a new booster shot campaign with

updated vaccines in september, according to the "new york times. officials have decided not to expand second booster shot eligibility with current vaccines speaking of that, did you see ackman tweeting? >> finally >> i had so much pride in being one of the last, >> you didn't care what bill mayer said if you haven't gotten it you have no friends in. >> unfortunately i lost a lot of friends. all of those folks that i asked to have dinner with me outdoors in the middle of the winter. >> there it is isolating exxonmobil out with second quarter numbers. reporting better than expected profit helped by prices for oil

and natural gas. also strong margins. joining us exclusively is darren woods, the chairman and ceo of exxonmobil thanks for being with us this is a quarter where you earned $17.5 billion that's a big number. want to walk us through what happ hap happened >> what the results reflect is a very strong market but more importantly the hard work that the organization's been engaged in the last several years. we've restructured significantly, and, as you recall back in 2018 on your show, we talked about the underinvestment we were seeing in the industry, and exxonmobil's decision to lean in to the business and make investments across the gulf coast and around the world and additional production capacity when most of our peers were leaning out of the industry. we anticipated tight markets at some point coming forward and wanted to be prepared for those.

and what we're seeing is with the extra production that we invested in five years ago that we're in position to meet the demands of families around the world and importantly, we've done that while reducing our emissions. it's a win for the company, the customers and the environment. >> the capex, 9$9.5 billion put you on track how much of that goes into refining how much of that goes into additional production? how much of that goes into things like carbon capture in. >> we've got a pretty diversefied portfolio. and obviously, the opportunities that are available we're putting significant investments in oil production, our permian is growing far ahead the rest of the industry we've got the guiana venture,

projects to bring gas to market and a large expansion in refini refining in the gulf coast, 250,000 barrels a day of additional production in the beaumont quarter which is going to bring needed products into the u.s. market. and we've been investing in the chemical company then last year we announced with this emerging growth and carbon capture and storage, biofuels and hydrogen, at very early stages we're investing this opportunity ms opportunities in that space. >> your refining volume was actually up at a time we've been talking about refining capacity in the united states shrinking >> yeah, what we've been doing is investing in reliability, making sure that we're bringing the best understanding of how to

manage and keep our facilities online efficiently from all across the corporation with that new structure that we put in place. so we are seeing better reliability. in the second quarter we had better progress. and we're making investment weise s wh where we g o. we are picking our spots where we see opportunity to bring additional product on the market at an advantage versus industry. >> normally, you see high profits from a company, and there's nothing but good news from the hshareholders from the pockets. but when you're in a politically tough situation where the president says you earned more

money than god, how do you balance the administration coming to you saying that they want more production from you, they want lower prices and then kind of your shareholders and environmental group have told you they want you to produce less and give more back to the shareholders how do you handle all that >> as we are experiencing very tight markets and consumers and people around the world not having access to affordable and reliable energy, there is a balance that needs to be struck. we're working hard to strike that balance i continue to believe this is not an either/or proposition this is an and proposition where we can grow production and reduce emissions in fact, we're demonstrating that with the investments that i talked about and the production we've been growing at the same time, we've been reducing our emissions the permian, which in 2022, we expect our production from u.s.

to be three times what it was in 2017 we have an objective of a net zero in our permian operation. i think we can demonstrate, we have been demonstrating that you can do both of these things, achieve both of these objectives, and it's important when you think about the role that energy plays in people's lives and where we are at in this transition. this transition is going to take time and careful planning. we intend to be a part of that careful planning to make sure that as we transition to a lower carbon future we don't penalize families >> activists were coming after you saying they wanted to see spending on green, transitions to the new environment but they own a very small stake. and i just wonder what you're hearing from shareholders these days do they want to you start drilling more, based on how high energy prices have come

>> you know, one of the challenges is companies tend to chase the cycle. in doing that you get very low returns on your capital. we wanted to lanean in when oths were leaning out what we hear consistent with the paradigm is chasing the cycle. there are a lot of questions for us to invest more in the space we're looking for opportunities that make sense that don't take us outside of the ranstrategy t we put in place to make sure we're spending capital very effectively. we have a unique approach to our permian where we are driving efficiencies and bringing technology consistently into that operation we're going to continue to do that we're going to look for ways to expand that without stepping outside of an advantaged approach and we'll take the same approach as we go around the world. our expectations in fguiana is o

bring our next production vessel on six months early. we are where we can get it on the market where people need it. >> darren, i was reading some comments that you had made at a conference it was something along the line of you think oil prices are going to continue to remain high for the next five years, based on the amount of exploration and spending that's gone into this over the last seven years, that we've been underinvested for anybody looking for a drop in prices, you're looking at $100 north over the next five years? >> that conversation was really talking about supply and demand in a commodity market that ultimately is what is going to set the price. my comment was if you look at what it takes to bring on new investments to grow supply m the oil industry, it is a fairly

long-cycle invest. and so three to five years is a reasonable time frame to think about bringing additional, significant additional production into the mix. it's not already in the plans or in the process of being built. that was that context. obviously, where demand goes and the balance between demand and supply is going to impact ultimately the prices and demand's a much more difficult thing to project q we can certainly see from a supply standpoint. it's difficult to take shortcuts and reduce that. >> there's all this talk about a potential recession headed our way. have you seen any drop in demand anywhere in the world in terms of demand for petroleum products. >> well, you know, as we got into the early part of this year in the first quarter typically a period where refineries are in maintenance, we ah prices get pretty high and as refineries are come back,

it has dropped we did see some impact and moderation in demand but continue to believe and see growth overall in products as economies continue to recover. i mean, logistics and supply constraints continue to be a challenge i think for all of industry but my expectation will continue to see some modest growth. and even without that growth, the market still remains tight, given the supply challenges that we just spoke about. >> darren, i want to thank you for coming on today. darren woods, the chairman and ceo of exxon mamobil. coming up, the second quarter cost index it is coming up in about 15 minutes. we're also going to dig in to the issue of stock trading by members of congress and some pushing hard for a ban it's a big debate.

you don't want to miss it. former republican house leader eric cantor will join us you're watching "squawk box.

welcome back to "squawk box. up again a pretty solid weekend for the nasdaq the dow also indicated higher. a lot of cross currents in the dow. procter & gamble was hurt. we also want to show you apple and amazon the final two faangs to report higher this the market this mof morning. but let's hone in on amazon. even though amazon posted an overall quarterly loss bou becae of its investment in rivian. it's up this morning earnings were down from a year ago, but apple did see iphone sales continue to grow and i think the services sector, that was some really strong

revenue. i didn't realize how much more revenue they're getting from services now than they are interest ipads and iphones and things that stock's up. when we come back, a can't-miss interview with randy quarles. let's make a programming note, don't miss kcathie wood on a special called "the tech trade." stick around, "squawk box" will be right back.

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inflation taking a toll on consumers, but have they switched to spending like we're in a recession that's an important question that can bring on the recession. a recession. courtney reagan joins us with some answers >> so much of this can be psychological. it depends on who you ask. walmart and best buy lowered forecasts saying inflation is changing consumer spending with increasing costs of food and fuel hurting sales of general merchandise like clothing and electronics. mega cap electronic apple sales were better, but ceo tim cook

said possibthere were pockets o softness, and the cfo calls the current environment challenging to operate in. outdoor columbia sport wear sees consumer sentiment softening amazon ceo said the company hasn't seen a change in its consumer spending trends as a result of inflation, though its on shore sales did fall year over year, but decker's put out another blowout quarter selling more to new consumers. all the players put up really strong results the high-end global performer is showing little sign of slowing down lvmh used words like exceptional to describe stronger than

expected sales gucci owner, kering, they put up strong sales so when you put it together, the retail etf is down about 12%. >> courtney, we're just wondering, does is start slowly moving up in it's not as if we aren't already worried about the people. >> re i had a conversation with the local grocery store. it's staggering how much i can spend. for me, that's wow, i'm

surprised, but it's not like oh, my god, now i've got to cut something out. >> it's not like you have to put back that extra bag of avocados. >> i don't want to call it a novelty. but whoa >> the pain is just felt differently. >> exactly thanks, courtney we'll see you. coming up, breaking economic data, inflation and spending i know what i like. i've been meaning to ask you, carl. does your firm offer personalized index investing? hmm? so i can remove a stock that doesn't align with my goals. i'm a broker, not a barista. what about managing gains and losses to be more tax efficient? not a wizard either. looks like schwab personalized indexing can. schwaaab! learn more about personalized indexing at schwab today.

welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're seconds away from new economic data, including the employment cost index for the second quarter rick santelli is standing by with the numbers >> this is a biggie, the employment cost index for the second quarter is running pretty hot. our last read up 1.4, was the all-time high going back to '96 recordkeeping, it's up 1.3, a tenth better than expected but a tenth lower than the rear view mirror which up to now has not been revised it has been on a steady increase of course that's salary

benefits we understand inflation puts refresh pressure in that regard. back to back .6. we look at spending, up 1.1% multiples better than our last look upgraded from .2 to .3. these are some of the fed favorite inflation gauges. it is up 1%. it continues to comp back to 2005 where it was up 1%. and if we consider how far back you have to go to get higher than 1%, that will take you to 1980 1980, when it was up 1.2, and

guess what, that is the all-time high we are only one tenth away from that and if we consider what's going on with the year-over-year number, it's up 6.8, 6.8's another fresh high that takes us back to 1982 when it was up 6.9. look's look at the core deflator month over month, that's up .6 that equals our current high mark and that was in april of '21 so we go back up to it and that is the highest level. and finally, the last look at the year-over-year core deflator, joe, that's up 4.8 the high watermark there was 5.3 in february of '22 so we did ease off just a bit. these are definitely pretty hot numbers, though, and the fed's going to pay particularly close attention to them and more data

coming out let's look at where yields are, 271. which means it's up about three on the day, but it's down by four on the week we do see that rates are up across the curve on the day and pretty much down in terms of the week but, as we start to float higher, we need to pay very close attention, especially right around that psychological 2.75 level >> steve liesman joins us with more hey, steve >> yeah, no good numbers here, joe. i was sort of amused that rick called the eci a tenth better than expected. i think he meant worse i'm sure he meant worse. that is a number that powell's been watching as he has emphasized to see what's really going on, because it's a better gauge of what's going on with wages, and it's not good m and if you do the re simple

math, 1.1% increased inflation spending is up just 0.1% it's little bit better, i want to double-check that, than it was in may june was a little bit better than may, but it's still pretty lame, joe, and the savings dropped as well as people used their savings to paper over or otherwise get through the higher prices if you were looking for relief in the inflation story in the june numbers you did not find it, i think. you have a little bit better consumer spending than in june, in june than in may, but not a whole lot. >> all right, steve, you didn't try to go into wikipedia and change the session, did you? did you see that it's not changeable. >> i got so much hate mail

yesterday for not calling it a recession. it's like people immediate to h need to have it called a recession. none of the economists called it a recession that i talked to, but that's the point of my story this morning if it's call add recession, what do you do with it in why do you need to call it a recession? well, because of policy. what do you do with it >> right, it's just, remember we had a jobless recovery >> right >> under president obama now we have a, whatever the opposite of a jobless recovery is we have. >> it's like a jobful recession. we talk about this, joe, can i

tell you, the number one thing that people want to do, the comments we surveyed in the cnbc survey, what they think the best solution to inflation is legal immigration. more legal immigration >> legal immigration >> we just have an issue, joe. we just have this issue right now where we do not have the workforce for the economy that we either want or have and if we don't solve the job problem, which is a good thing for many people, we are not going to get out of this pickle that we're in, and we can have a declining, i guess, gdp while we have low unemployment, i think >> we certainly don't have a problem with illegal immigration. that should be providing, if those are the jobs we need, there should be plenty of those, then >> if you fatalk to cato, cato says the way to solve illegal immigration is to provide more legal immigration, fill the jobs in the states that exist and that would reduce illegal immigration. and that's according to cato

>> the green hornet guy >> no, the liberal bastion >> kato kaelin where are they now he was famous for about five minutes. see you later, liesman, thank you. meanwhile, house didn'ts wordemocrats working on a plan to restrict members from trading stocks. want to bring in eric cantor what do you think? what do you think, eric? do you think that this is something that should be done? >> i'm sort of reminiscing, andrew, the time that i was on the hill and we had a similar incident, although somewhat different to nancy pelosi's husband and issues of members being able to engage in stock trading, almost day trading came up, and there

was a big piece on 60 minutes and a real uproar about hey, how in the world are you allowing members of congress to get access to market moving information before anyone else and have them go and engage in day trading. so what we did and what i did as leader try to convince our members that we had to do something to provide transparency to the public i don't think that there hshould be an outright ban on people trading stock, but i do think the public has a right to know exactly what the members of congress are buying and selling. it's not too dissimilar to what we have in the public sector we abide by all the rules of the sec and compliance and conflict. and there are steps that you have to take if you are going to be engaging in stock buying. >> but eric, don't you think i mean, i would make the argument to you that both for the credibility of the markets

unto themselves and perhaps more impor importantly, it's better off that they're not trading individual stobscks so we're not having this conversation about whether they're abusing their positions. >> i think there's no question from the perception it would be simpler, but i'm not sure we want to ban people from doing it i made an individual choice my wife and i that we were only going to go in if we had money to invest and invest in etfs, mutual funds and the rest, but even those can be subject to criticism, because, you know, there's inside information, and then there's sort of market-moving information. i think it's the latter that a member of congress may be perceived to have access to prior to the public. but, again, if you increase transparency, and this is what we tried to do in the stock act many years ago which was at the time there

wasn't even a requirement to disclose that you were going to have a trade coming up, and you could wait until the end of the year to do that. so i think what could happen is they could strengthen the notice requirement. strengthen the penalty that a member would have to incur if he or she did not comply with that notice requirement and could you even put a delay in to once an individual wants to put an order in, i know at public companies we have to do this >> eric -- >> you say i want to buy this stock, and then there's approval process. >> if you really just look at it, though, seriously, if you're actually involved in legislation that's going to impact the things you're investing, that's like the greatest scam in the history -- bernie madoff wouldn't have had to do any of the stuff he was doing the wolf of wall street would have traded his position and had

his firm for being able to do it it's patently obvious. people, we meet people in congress that understand the business world they don't i watch them they've ability to trade stock, and they're the most financially illiterate group of people that i've ever seen for the most part so that hasn't helped. so i'm actually, i i think i might be with andrew on this one. if you're making laws about semi-conductors and able to buy stocks in the semi-conductor business >> let's say they were to require a 30-day lag in notice if an individual member was putting in a committee markup and they want to go buy stock in a company that is going to be subject to this new legislation, let's have that notice, let's have that individual who serves in congress on that committee submit notice and let the public see. let'em see

>> why complicate the matter at all, give than we can just say, look, if you want to buy etfs and mutual funds, go for it. those are the restriction wee'r under as journalists but it's not just the reality but the perception, the credibility of our democracy, the credibility of our officials. i want you to react to this, eric, if could you yesterday we had richard fisher on the program, and we asked him this very question as well and this was his answer. >> clearly people ahave taken advantage of inside information forever and not against their tapping that down, and i'm sorry to see that paul pelosi, nancy pelosi and others appear, it's all appearance right now we don't know the facts, to have taken advantage of inside information. >> what do you think of that

>> look, i agree there's an appearance here what we want is the information in order to make an informed decision we don't know what it was at the time or what he did or didn't do but its are brings up a different question what if the member of congress has a family member, a spouse, let's say, who serves on a public board of directors and has had a career and done that and, as you know, compensation on public boards often involves stock issuances. what do you do in a situation like that if you're going to say no individual stocks and just etfs. >> eric, here's the opposite side of that so joe this morning is showing us the cover of new york post and people are questioning hunter biden's relationship with president biden, what kind of credibility they have or don't have for four years and president trump was in office we had questions about what the trump family and the kushners and everybody else were doing, clintons, isn't the goal to try

to take as much as of those types of controversies and issues off the table to the extent they can be taken off the table? >> the goal is about transparency the more we, the more public has access to information, that's what distinguishes our country, our system from many of the autocratic totalitarian systems of the world we have access and should have access to all information surrounding a situation like this and i do think it's done in the private sector, an analogous debate that goes on with public companies throughout markets and our country about access to inside information, insiders in those companies prohibited from trading in certain times for your instance, if there is a particular piece of legislation that's dealing with an industry or a sector or a company, perhaps there could be a trading blackout period for those members.

maybe you're right on that but, again, i'm not sure i support, and i don't support an outright ban >> okay. eric cantor, it is always good to see you and always good to have these debates they're important. and we hope you have a great weekend. >> you too >> thanks. when we come back, we'll get jim cramer's first take on the trading day ahead. we'll talk to him about all the earnings we've seen this morning and last night then former fed chair randy kwa garlss s. qs us quas rs ls es

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let's get down to the new york stock exchange and check in with jim cramer, jim, i'm hoping we can do a little bit of a lightning round. maybe we start with procter & gamble what do you think? >> it's a buy. it's ridiculous that the stock's down joe's question was brilliant the fact is that over the strong dollar >> we've got chevron and exxonmobil with much stronger. >> i was going to say chevron definitely, then i saw your in-depth interview with exxon, and i came out thinking it's a push >> why's that >> first of all, darren's so much better on tv. the argument is how much money they made, and they made a ton of money now i will tell you that my

quarter, raising the buyback by 50% and investing in permian is exactly what you want at this time so i still, i thought that was a fabulous interview >> what about apple and amazon both stocks higher >> buy, buy, buy all these analysts are telling you to trade around apple. that was real dumb then there are a lot of people who said stick a fork in bezos you guys talked about trade down they're taking share from everybody. amazo amazon advertising is strong they're taking share, because they offer better deal than when you go to a store and you want to get toothpaste, you got to ring a buzzer and nobody comes because everything's under lock and key. these are the answers. >> what happened with intel?

>> that was horrendous what happened was the sapphire model was late pat gelsinger, they can't make the chips the way they used to they were the premiere chip maker in the world but big win, maybe ohio. >> let 's talk roku

trading day of the month july has been a great month for the market. >> they got to rethink .. what they have to do, they have to get over it. i think the key is too young they've never seen anything. >> that should be every person's goal every day, jim. >> we're all hoping to get older. >> by the way, pfizer was great. pfizer was great can we cut that out? we're going to take the super spiked vaccine credit the times, i broke that

story yesterday but i'm not competitive. i'm fine >> jim, that was a great tease for what's to come in st aju few minutes. >> any time you need me, i am there for you guys all right. >> we'll see you "squawk box" will be right back. .. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

. we just got some new data on the fed's preferred measure of inflation. core pce prices for june up 4.8% year over year that was slightly higher than expectations and that follows that 75 basis points rate hike from the fed that we had this week joining us now, randall quarles, a former fed vice chairman and the chairman and co-founder of simon share group. it's good to see you can we start with your description of the current state of affairs in whether we've seen this before? is it the converse of the jobless recovery of the obama years? now we have a job fall quasi recession? >> well, yeah. i think everyone has to keep in mind that, notwithstanding the criticismof the fed's recent

moves, it takes time for interest rate changes to work their way through the economy and we're seeing the effects now of moves that were taken in the spring all of this will take time to work through, so it's not surprising that you would see sort of a strong move by the fed and still see inflation maybe coming in a little ahead of expectations immediately afterwards because the effect of this move isn't going to be felt for a number of months >> randall, it's been pointed out to me that if you're looking for the greatest lagging indicator, it might be employment is that why we're all sort of scratching our heads is it, in fact -- are we in a slowdown already the jobs, the unemployment rate will catch up with the state of affairs we're in right now and we maybe could be in a recession already? >> yeah.

i mean we're clearly in a slowdown it would be a little odd to say that we're already in a recession when you have such a strong job market, but i think, you know, attach it -- pinning the tail on the donkey are we in a recession at this moment or not, what's important is that the economy is slowing down, generally, the labor market will ultimately have to slow down as well in order to bring inflation under control. there's every reason to expect that will happen, given the robustness of the fed's approach currently. that's a -- to bring inflation under control, the economy has to slow down. >> do you think that the inflation problem right now is totally engrained into the structure of the economy yet like it was in the '70s? or is it still off --

>> no. i don't think that inflation is engranlds in the economy if you look back it took -- that was a decade of poor policy and unexpected economic shocks that resulted in the inflation, the stag inflation during the 1970s. i don't think the current inflation is driven byly >> shocks either the war in ukraine it's been driven by overstated demand while at the fed we misdiagnosed that at first, you know, i think it was reasonable to see the beginning of last summer that this was principally a supply disruption driven inflation, it was clear by last fall it wasn't, the fed got off to a slow consequence, but demand

driven is exactly what the -- and interest rate -- they're making are exactly what will bring it under control. relatively soon by the fall. >> randall, we don't have a lot of time left, talking about another trillion dollars with the spending and the greatest thing is, they actually are calling one of these pieces of l legislation the anti-inflation act. do you -- you're smiling do you scratch your head with that should we be adding on at this point in. >> i think as it clear that stimulus we had in response to covid was much more effective than we originally predicted, adding another wave of stimulus now, the logic behind the bill they're proposing they're going to have taxes to pay for it. >> right. >> even on paper it doesn't cover it completely. >> okay. >> that will never happen. >> randall, thanks

i know you heard me, because i was watching the clock, we got to get out of here at 9:00. i would love to have you back on very plain speaking truths about a lot of this stuff. thank you. good to have you on. final check. do you use that imho, lmao we got to go >> wow. >> please join us on monday. have a great weekend "squawk on the street" is next good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. we'll wrap up july with a true tug of war, the bulls applauding apple, amazon, then there's intel, roku and proctor and inflation data that remains troublesome with the uptick and core pc. our road map with the tectonic shifts