was watching the clock, we got to get out of here at 9:00. i would love to have you back on very plain speaking truths about a lot of this stuff. thank you. good to have you on. final check. do you use that imho, lmao we got to go >> wow. >> please join us on monday. have a great weekend "squawk on the street" is next good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. we'll wrap up july with a true tug of war, the bulls applauding apple, amazon, then there's intel, roku and proctor and inflation data that remains troublesome with the uptick and core pc. our road map with the tectonic shifts apple and amazon top estimates

but intel is down sharply after that miss. it is the last trading day of july s&p on pace since the best month since 2020 and roku is getting rocked down more than 20% post-results we are going to begin with apple beating on revenue and profit, expecting growth to accelerate despite pockets of softness. this is tim cook on the call last night talking about macro >> we do believe that we saw macro economic headwinds that impacted our business and our results, and so what one of those is clearly the fx which is over 300 basis points on year over year growth rates on iphone, there was no obvious evidence of macro impact besides fx, obviously. mac and ipad were so gated by supply that we didn't have enough product to test the

demand wearables home -- >> wearables there dominic chu >> there there are no analysts that are bullish this is a remarkable quarter you've added country to the like of indonesia and brazil doing a lot. people say what are those countries? you know, indonesia is 273 million people, brazil 212 million. what was most important is how good india is, 1.4 billion

india will become a major factor faster than anybody else there were so many good things here one of the things that i see 1.8 billion actives, services is 9.6, but you've got the possibility of a long-term value because they have 98% satisfaction where you have a tremendous subscription growth also remember, that the holiday in china was incredibly strong for them they had a great last month in june almost as if there was no lockdown when i asked tim whether they would get the nfl he said, jim, i have to punt on that one. >> on the question, not the deal >> yeah. he's punting >> yeah. >> i wanted so much to say, therefore, he's going to be interested in it, but i -- still unbelievably good. the analysts that doubted it -- >> you can do many things.

>> many things in life >> we're going to talk about -- >> many things in life we're going to talk about proctor's view of the consumer going forward from here. >> my travel trust is buying proctor. if they hedge the dollar the number would have been very good growth is great. they saw some trade down, but also saw trade up. i actually am telling investment club members love the quarter. when you're looking for a company that is going to be the biggest beneficiary of decline in commodities you found it, it's procter & gamble. i would love to think that the nine out of ten things i buy in my house are from proctor that they will lower the price of them, but i doubt that -- a nod to my wife she puts the tide pod into the washing machine. >> i don't know how to operate the washer. >> the trick is not to throw it into the dryer. >> that's right.

>> i learn by the day when i'm at home. >> we had elon musk tweeting inflation is trending lower. >> retweeted that immediately. >> more commodity prices trending down. that was probably the most worthwhile piece of information i've seen in the last 48 hours because we all worry about the basket, most are intimidated to call a top or say things have come down. there are many chemicals proctor has to worry about ethylene, polyethylene, sur fact tants and they're going for the first time proctor's way. i think it will. so if you want a situation where the fed wins, if you want to bet on the fed wins you go proctor i have to buy -- jay powell next time bring crest. bring a tube of crest and squirt it all them, all those

naysayers. here, take this. >> the question is which type of crest? there's like 30 different crests >> i did try to get some sensodyne yesterday at -- >> the gums. >> walgreens and i waited, pressed that button because sensodyne is under lock and key. that's about $4. >> you were mad on twitter. >> i pressed the button. i have five minutes to kill in an aisle waiting for someone to see me not only that, but in the last minute, i had -- they had the gal to play service needed detergent aisle. i'm in the toothpaste aisle. >> if you run into jim at the drug store watch out. >> i went home and i went on amazon and i got sensodyne comes every month for the rest of your life you get a rebate after you leave the earth. >> speaking of amazon, upper net beats. >> oh, my god. the amazon quarter. >> revenue is up 10. aws print was good and then, of course, the q3 revenue guide.

>> layoffs 100,000. amazon advertising was extraordinary. web services once again. he had been on my show and gave you the card it was fantastic. what i like most is if you sit down with amazon versus walmart, you realize not only is amazon a covid stock, it's a trade down stock. everything is cheaper. i think if we had numbers head to head amazon versus walmart we would find wait a second, walmart is losing share to amazon >> walmart losing share to amazon >> absolutely. losing share to amazon and people who steal and fence it on amazon >> that's -- that is a thing. >> you know that home depot and lowe's would tell you people steal their own brand and then you see them on amazon, but it's not -- the money doesn't go to home depot that's because the pill fringe is something no one is willing to talk about. it's time for retailers to say -- in the old days before

you had sensemattic in the '80s, you would hear how much was stolen we had 3% shrinkage or 2% shrinkage. the shrinkage is costanza like at these places. >> you think -- i got the costanza thing >> i was saying -- >> i was about to call you -- >> we know what you meant. was this the best of the megas >> yes it was extraordinary you know, it's funny, the cut and dry nature basically are you guys seeing trade. no decline. no andy jassy, i was told, the last quarter, it was one of those he was throwing things and had it, and he basically was belichick he was belichick he was not going to allow another quarter. he'll hate me for that because he's a parcel's fan from the parcel's era no medals for trying he is as competitive a person as i have seen and if you're late

or do anything like that, it doesn't count for you. >> yeah. we talked a moment ago about relief in price pressure and commodities. they were not completely sanquine on that front. >> they weren't. >> take a listen >> inflationary pressures remained at elevated levels in q2 similar to q1 these include pressures from higher fuel, trucking, air and ocean shipping rates, which we expect will continue into q3 we made strides to improve fulfillment network productivity in q2. staffing levels more in line with rising q2 demand and we saw better optimization of our fulfillment network. >> you would have liked to have heard more about -- >> i would have. brian is not that way. i know him, i like him why? because he's an eagle fan and when i first met him at the super bowl we won. he was even when they're bad and even when they're good and i think he's set us up for a

traditional under perform, over deliver. they are -- they're going up against fedex and ups. i have to tell you, when i listen to brian and i listen to those two calls, fedex and ups, we have a winner amazon's delivering really well. fedex is doing such great work, technologically. ups, just an unbelievable company. but amazon is taking share from everybody. you don't want to compete against amazon you just don't if you -- here, we'll extend the metaphor you're playing in foxborough sunday night in december when you're going up against amazon >> december of this year or december of 19 -- >> of any december of any december. it doesn't matter. you know, i just think that this was the quarter that was the breakout like look, you think -- they didn't say this, but you think that we're a covid -- you think we're doccusign or roku. we're like [ inaudible ]

no we're the dominators it doesn't matter. they're dominating i wish brian would be like brian i know like just say listen, we just -- we were down there giving them the business on the call he's a polite and nice guy jassy. don't get in jassy's way. >> right well, we've talked about how they've pivoted coming out of the pandemic and we'll see what the next quarter -- >> i was so impressed. but let's go back to tim cook for a second. he's a killer too. but it's not -- he just wins i mentioned him, i asked him, china was tough. why do you say that? the lockdown is ending the last month was great >> he did say that and yum china echoed that. >> maybe we're being too negative about president xi ahead of the legendary phone call the pelosi trip to taiwan, well timed. i feel that tim cook was as optimistic as i have ever heard

him. and they're very proud because their hedging was brilliant. by the way, goldman offered a hedging program, almost no one took them up on it, everyone knew it was a strong -- here's the interesting -- if everyone knew it was a strong dollar why did all the strong companies avail themselves to hedge against the strong dollar. 98% satisfaction i went on -- i talk about what's the lifetime value of a customer he is sick of it, but they play along with it. morgan stanley put out a piece about 78 pages long about why they should have a long-term value of customer and never once credited me. if you're in the save the trees position, morgan stanley shameless. mine took one minute. >> you've been pressing for that metric. >> yeah. when you -- trees are very important to the environment. >> i don't print them out. you do. >> look, i -- amazon, me i don't know but i did -- i'm planting a lot of trees >> we mentioned amazon may be

the best mega print of the quarter and intel shares are down, company posts its biggest revenue miss since 1999. they take an ax to capex discussion if you're going to take the chips act handout do you need to go after the dividend >> remember, that's what i have been saying. i want to make it clear, he is the nicest man in the -- of ceos they can't make the chip i find that -- you know, let's say you're in a kitchen and the food comes to you and it's not that good. that's acceptable. but chef, if you bring -- if you can't make the food, no. the sapphire chip, they are way behind amd 1, intel zero they're competing directly and they lost. they didn't just lose the coin flip, they got beat bad. >> we're going to talk to gelsinger on "tech check" today.

>> he's nice. >> what does he need to be asked? >> okay. you want to be -- want to get down there in the scrum? >> sure. >> okay. did he really think he was joining the intel of the legendary andy grove or craig barrett or gordon moore? or is he back with the intel that systemically caused destruction of capital for 18 years? he seems to think that the -- that there's some dna leftover from andy grove. the late but most mean man i've ever dealt with. vicious but a killer great book, by the way or look, i've got to tell you, craig barrett ran a good ship. i went to ireland with him and the opening of a fantastic lab and took us to the abby afterwards my wife is a fantastic river dancer i throw that in for no reason. but he has misjudged his own

company. he should forget about what the legacy -- he has to forget it's a different team. i mean, if you go to a pro team and you say, you know what, i remember we are family from the pirates what were you thinking when you were watching last night? you cannot pretend that it's the same company and he's under that tremendous misjudgment. it's time for him to start -- congratulations in ohio. okay buckeyes okay i don't know on to cincinnati but the thing that he's missing is they can't get the chip out that's unbelievable for a company like intel where when i visited the israeli foundry on saturday and no one was working sabbath and they're spitting out great chips. >> stacy razgone of bernstein said the worst quarter he's seen in his career. would you agree? >> that's pretty good. >> thanks. >> definitely in that

neighborhood >> that's -- that's very good. roku was hard to beat. intel was right there. there was a quarter right before the previous -- two previous ceos of proctor blew up, where there were analysts saying, do you know anything about -- do you know how to run proctor? we didn't get that we didn't get like maybe you shouldn't be running proctor, but we got questions basically could you -- when you're able to make the chip, will you come back lisa sue, who is my favorite from amd, since the stock was 5. >> yes. >> had to have just been like -- she's self-efacing, but she's prideful i can tell she would have let out a big guffaw, i'm from philadelphia, after listening to that conference call it was that much of a disaster >> that chart will explain some of what jim is talking about be careful why? >> you tell me

>> he's really nice. don't hit him too hard he got the chip back he was in congress >> he got that done. >> incredibly charitable >> we'll talk more about that. >> let's give him that before you savage him i don't want to see savagery promise me no savagery. >> no promises. >> stacy, she's just terrible, turns out it was a he and he's pretty good. >> more into roku, more to the energy names today, exxon and chevron moving higher in the premarkets decent comments on the future of production more into proctor and the macro data today which has some questioning whether or not a fed pivot is really around the corner back in a moment.

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exxon and chevron topping big time both companies benefit from higher prices for oil and nat gas. chevron per meium production up 15 year on year. >> okay. >> upstream earnings 3x. >> they just did far more drilling so much in the permian, four times last year president biden and you've been just trashing these guys left and right while you're meeting with the guys about the wind mill three you would rather meet with the pariah killers and saudi arabia. mike worth is doing exactly what

the president wants. will he be snubbed again is the question he's doing carbon capture. he's boosted production greatly for this country everything the president wants will he get the heisman from the president? will the president still be a fan of being in a picture of mike worth, the ceo of chevron >> you know, i don't know. did you see valero's results do you think that will go over well politically >> i told them not to do a big -- i told you that valero would be insane. >> that was crazy. >> valero, i came out and said that they would have the best margin and this and that but they would be under fire when they did that number i don't know whether that stock is going to -- duck your head, valero get your -- this is a weekend, head right now to the hamptons don't wait until the cannonball. and don't -- no gnt this weekend for you. >> darren woods did say refining margins are moderating and the industry could added a million

ba barrels a day of refining capacity. >> i think he is tremendous. i remember the original darren wood it was like a screen test. couldn't deliver two plans, left and right. now he was fantastic i thought he told a story that honestly i was putting pen to paper and as much as i like mike worth, exxon they had an amazing free cash flow number. they had -- they just, natural gas was up i should point out that chevron committed 4 million tons of natural gas to europe. exxon, they made a huge amount of money, and i am thinking that it's a struggle to see who is really better. it is. it's a struggle. >> two good quarters going to help the indexes today on this final day of july. we'll talk some roku, getting crushed after the results with concerning comments about tv ad spend. meantime futures improving a bit. nasdaq in the lead we're back in a moment. to adapt in the changing world,

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we will watch for some month end activity as we finish up the final trading day of july on pace for one of the best nonz several. as you know we'll get cramer's mad dash, count down to the opening bell in a moment.

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the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen a leader in income, alternatives and responsible investing. time for cramer's mad dash as we count down to the opening bell. >> there's one of the great lines of shakespeare is when julius caesar, dear anthony wood, is not in the stars but in you. i'm sorry, it's brutus, but when i look at the anthony wood on the conference call last night on roku, i just don't like it when they blame the macro. it's like macro this, macro

that no you didn't hear google talk about the macro all that much. this is a defining moment for this company because you have people like michael nathanson openly questioning on the call whether the numbers are even right that they're presenting. maybe they're giving people numbers for when the tv is off it was rather breathtaking this quarter. it was basically saying that we made a big push into advertising, but because things have slowed down in the economy it hasn't worked i come back and say, maybe it hasn't worked because it's not the place to advertise. >> not like google has a bunch of new entrants in the business. these guys are dealing with competitors every day. >> i know. they just haven't -- they had a dramatic decline in advertisers. i think that what's happened this quarter is that -- this is really important for a lot of companies. they figure the -- a lot of guys cut back in advertising but they didn't eliminate it.

they went for where the best roi is and i think that roku return investment is proving to be second rate versus at alphabet, first-party data and amazon advertisement is really coming on. >> we're going to see. roku is going to get punished at the open let's get the opening bell and the cnbc real-time exchange. it's americares. it is nasdaq, paddle for the cure a dragon boat team combatting breast cancer jim, can the megas lead us here as we wrap up the month? >> i think the megas have been such an anchor that they've been terrible everyone has tried to move without amazon and apple and google alphabet this takes the weight off because there are a lot of people that are really caught -- there was a lot of short base

growing. there's people who are still fighting apple rod hall said -- i love this from goldman -- that stock should go down off this. okay maybe it does. but i didn't see it like that. tony did at ford, except there was nothing on the one hand that was so good just one hand. >> on the hand. >> now against that are the numbers that people didn't like, the broad numbers, about inflation, but i will come back and say why did you think he did a three quarter point hike if the numbers were soft he wouldn't have done three quarters come on. amazon was the one that i was most concerned about a lot of people thought that amazon was going to blow up because jassy missed so badly. jassy acted with lack crity. he was nfl like. there were cuts left and right 100,000 people >> yeah. there's amazon right there low he lower than the premarket bofa, hartman is out

fed pivot. we'll get there. it's too early we'll approach in six to nine months this remains a bear rally. 4400 the true lows still 3600. >> if we get a musk decline in commodities then you take a company like ford which had unbelievable numbers, finally getting chips and has reservations out, like a bourdain company, great call, but i will tell you, i'm not buying that if the cost comes down when i look at the basket of costs, they're down substantially. you mentioned lumber there's going to be a glut in housing. brian moynihan said look, it would be -- rents are going to be high. rents are the weakness of the economy when it comes to housing because they have to go lower and they won't go lower by the goodness of the landlord that's still a problem cars will come down. used cars will come down they're getting chips.

housing, your house is losing money as we speak. because houses have peaked that's what happens. you get to a point where the houses are for sale but no buyers and there's cancellations from the home builders we're going to hear those numbers spike. mortgage rates will go up more so i think that there's a glut everywhere there's a glut -- i check my ollie's army because i know that in another two weeks i will be able to buy all the things i thought i could buy at walmart at ollie's jim, we don't dump at ollie's. walmart is sensitive about everything. >> nothing wrong with being proud, having pride, corporate pride. >> that's why i thought they would do better because they say they're better they have artificial intelligence you know what, you know what i want, i want intelligence. this is the quarter i don't want artificial intelligence, i want actual intelligence. nothing artificial about my intelligence. >> if you're convinced we will see relief i wonder what you make of tom lee's call last night, august '82 moment, when

volcker pivoted, the market bottomed two months ahead of time and thinks we're going to hit 4800 by year end. >> goldman sachs august '8 2, i thought i was the smartest guy in the world the market never looked back. >> tom built this chart. see where volcker shifted in october and the market definitely anticipated that. >> it was amazing. "the new york post" recognized it i had been a summer associate. i said wow, i think the bell just rung. i don't think this is a bell rung moment. i don't. i think you have to see more things roll over, everything go -- all the plastics have to roll over. they've been a problem because america runs kind of on plastic. we need to see food come down. i personally wish that the antitrust, terrific guy cantor, after he's finished killing this spirit deal, he has to go after and find out where the corners on the market are for imported food we only have three shipping

companies that bring in food they're international shipping companies. i think they signal each other -- >> there's places why you agree with the president the collaboration on shipping ocean freight. >> absolutely. it's demonstrable. ask anybody who is in that business of importing and they will tell you i'm not going to mention their names, but they all work together quite well, i think. >> well, proctor, to your point about the consumer and price elasticity, bernstein says they lost share in the four weeks ending july 16th in every category except beauty and if you look at their organic guidance, lowest since '19, the consumer is not going to pay for expensive brand name products. >> that's not what mueller said and i think he's a reliable guy and that's why we're buying it for the trust. their share can be in many fashions i think what matters is that

whether you look at a basket of what proctor is, that's the one most sensitive to prices coming down. >> commodity prices. >> so i'll take it either way. >> you think it was as clean as nestle or unilever >> nestle was fabulous i had them on last night they're good you're paying high for that. i don't want to pay high the surprise has been unilever nelson pelts joins us there. if you want to buy a company that's real good and not trade it, and just own it, you could do worse than procter & gamble and maybe it hits 138. i don't know but i didn't think the quarter was as bad as people were saying they lose share, they can take share. remember when they lost share in unilever, quarter after quarter and decided enough we're to the going to lose share. no one believed they could turn it, but they did they knocked unilever all the way back to where they were before unilever started gaining.

i think that proctor is off. it will be on. you don't get it up -- don't buy them up ten. >> that's not the point. >> other results we got, mohawk, actually was a beatbut they di guide below and talked about -- >> stanley was not -- stanley was the worst quarter. i am surprised that amd is not up more since intel basically told you that the road map, the italian road map of different cities is getting there a lot faster than their jewelry of sapphire this is just -- people don't understand this is the fastest growing market in the world. high performance computing chips is the fastest growing chip market in the world and i think when lisa sue reports, you will say, why didn't i listen i didn't know that they -- that what's happened is that pat gelsinger turns out to be the ultimate share donor which is a curse. august 2nd you're going to find

out that intel was a share donor to lisa sue at amd. >> amd, about a five-week high today going back to june 10th. >> makes sense i was going to say nvidia is a share gainer but every time you mention nvidia it gets its head handed to it >> although, jim, if you look at the top ten market caps, nvidia is back on the list and meta is out. meta moves to number 11. >> spending a lot of time thinking about meta and what mark has to do and when i woke up this morning i saw that tiktok might be sharing information with china maybe that's an opportunity. they said they turned that attractive opportunity to rat out everybody to china, turned that down. it's obvious when mark zuckerberg is not -- i wish they weren't losing the cfo there was a moment where he said the worst is -- things are going to get worse his candor is extraordinary, but there could not be a worse thing to say

because look, if you own my stock, you probably want to sell it and then maybe you'll come back. i've never heard a ceo say hey, listen, maybe you should sell. he's a competitive guy i would have said we see 2023 being better instead he went with the worse case scenario that -- that's like -- again, the analogy to the nfl. a coach saying we're going to have a losing season, i wouldn't bother watching us, turn the channel, watch somebody else and when we're done i'll call you and start benn betting on us this season is out i don't think you of tell shareholders this season we don't have it. we plan to lose to miami >> we're down two years. >> we have an "l" when we play cleveland. no you don't. don't do that. i'll have to talk to -- >> you're not talking about whether the metaverse pays off

real monetizing. >> reels is billion ahead of stories, where stories was i would have liked to have heard that in 2023 you're going to be surprised, we all own 60%. we're going to cut into that you'll be -- a lot of people will be trying quest, it's going to be easier to use. won't be so clumsy by the way, look out, we're doing some new things with consumer packaged goods. we did not get that. we did not get that. >> earlier in the year you said meta would be a second half story. are you pushing it back? >> if you wanted to lower expectation, i mean, like the expectations right now if you press b, you press b, you'll find out where the expectations are. i mean, if you want to take -- this guy, he took expectations like i've never seen never seen anybody say listen, wait until next year and it's like the season just started. >> that was the one thing the street said that they had the guts to guide.

guide bad but they had the guts to do it. >> he said basically look, we don't have it. it's like it isn't roku. they didn't do roku. that's a new verb. >> is it a verb? >> meaning >> to blame the macro for execution issues. >> mark's talked about macro. >> forget it it was roku. but -- well, but mark talked about basically -- mark sounded like he was in the bunker and we're -- and you know, combine sheryl who talks about the organic fish company taking an ad. >> roku reminds me is the note costman goldman put out arguing some of the high valued names that have been crushed in some cases just not cheap enough yet. >> we discussed kostin, ben, my research director and i, discussed that, how depressing that kostin note was kostin is doing incredible work. he's operating at a level i have not seen most analysts operate.

>> he's paranoid. >> incrementally cautious. >> he has. his sunday pieces, brighten my sunday night those who have the sunday scares, read kostin. the second page of his research is what people are talking about and it's so right. he is -- it's his time it's kostin's time. >> yep. >> as they've trimmed their target pretty much all year long, although they now -- they don't see really wage growth going to some spiral, even despite what eci said this morning. >> so you worked at amazon until you got the pink slip the other day. typically you could job hop and get an even better job it's no longer the great resignation. that was the great firing. >> we've been saying how much amazon would move the needle on employment. >> i don't think they're done. >> we'll see we get a jobs number a week from today. we'll be looking for that, maybe a two handle we'll see. later this morning don't miss an exclusive with arc invest cathie wood joining us on our special "the tech trade" hosted by

deirdre bosa. box on yesterday. >> some unfortunate oneslately >> we'll see what her view is -- >> look it doesn't matter right because you have to have that long-term view i'm taking a 50-year horizon she bought a lot of roku region. that's worth asking. when i'm 110 i'm going to kill it you wait in my coffin i'm going to crush it. >> jim's 50-year price target. we're getting close to 4100. s&p up 25 points as we go to break, take a look at bond report again, the macro number is not that great pce year on year, 6.8. highest since '282 core 4.8 up from a prior 4.7. >> did three quarters. maybe he should have done 275. >> you got the two year back to 2.91 we're back in a minute.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." rick santelli live at cme hq with breaking news our july read on the chicago pmi. expecting a read in the mid-50s. 52.1 for july. 52.1 that follows 56. both those have something in common they're both the lowest levels since august of 2020 that's correct when it was 50.9 haven't been below 50 since june of 2020. we all know that wasn't a good time we see a lot of the data today was a bit on the aggressive side, whether it was employment cost index or inflation embedded in the consumer aspects of the last number. rates, well rates are up on the session, but down on the week. "squawk on the street" wl tu aer srtreak. nurse mariyam sabo knows a moment this pure demands a lotion this pure.

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are still concerns with the economy. they haven't seen anything yet that could be to come. whether kim -- when you return your phone, i wouldn't get the 14 that phone tends to end up in indonesia and brazil they have a strategy in this countries that are less are developed. they take those phones, sell them and get the hooked both from the service revenue stream and of course an upgrade that's why the less developed countries are coming on very strong whole new populace i think people should recognize, they of a country that have $100 million. >> so we are in a new moment, where we think of the company not so much on unit sales. >> there are people who recognize, you're going to hear

about that, because i think i have won that battle, and not give me any cried, bud that's okay i don't mind if morgan stanley does that, but tim says the financial vertical is ready to attack look at that that could be the national bank of apple if you had to ask about vertical, the most he's excite about. >> vertical in production, vertical in service. >> a lot of verticals. let's get to bob pisani. hey, bob. >> s&p 5004100, we're moving into a whole any trading range the bulls were right growth is back in these sectors.

consumer discretionary is doing great we're at '99 the by earnings movers are all positive procter is weighing on the consumer staples because of the cautious guidance they gave. the earnings apocalypse has not materialized these numbers have essentially not changed much at all. years all-jeer expecting growth that does not happen with a recession. recessions usually produce earnings declines.

, earnings typically will drop 10% to 20% peak to trough in a serious recession, even 40%. we're not seeing anything close to that. earnings up 8.8. this is not recessionary-type indications. so we've been waiting for this to happen, and it's not. a lot of people are finally looking to say, if we're going to get a downturn, it certainly will be pretty mild, and this is very much in vogue right now so you see the communication services down a lot. that's because of big declines amazon and starbucks, lowe's home depot, so it's a strange year

that's been relatively stable here that's what's helping hold up the overall s&p 500 up 8%, like where we have. this is the last day of the year look at some of the other things we're happening. i see oil is down 6% for the month, the trend is down here, though it's up today the ten-year yield is down 10% generally, generally the stock market likes lower yields on the ten-year volatility, the vix is down over 20% we're at the lowest level since april for the vix. i see declines in commodities. i see declines in interest rates

i see declines in volatility, and earnings generally holding up pretty well carl, back to you. >> that's a great point, bob jim, to bob's point. bloomberg pointing out, this quarter, the lightest in their records. >> that's really important i just am shocked at a stock that reports bad numbers, doesn't get hammered all that much when you have something like apple, it takes off he's talking about there will be a vaccine in the fall that everyone will get, it will be like the super-spike

vaccine. so, for instance, my doctor says i'm due for one, because i had one in april he said, listen, i'm not your personal doctor, but he knows my doctor, he said this will be one you want to get. you think pfizer is done no, you'll get the spike vaccine. i think we'll be hooked on pfizer vaccines for quite? time. >> we made it through a busy week. >> yes, we did now its time to sauce some tomatoes, pick some zucchini i want to be, more than anywhere else in the world, because of a show i'm watching, the chef. >> you mentioned it a few times this morning we'll see you monday, of course. jim cramer joining us for the hour, we got a lot of work done today. re oe says, 4101 mon apple and amazon in a moment

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♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ welcome back to "squawk on the street", rick santelli here, live on hq, we're looking at our final read for it was our

primary early look in june, we had 50 that's our last full month that is a historic low going back to the '70s 58.1 on current conditions, also an improvement from 57.1 the june final read there at 53 was also historic back to the '70s the only area that didn't in june make a historic pass at lows was expectations. they stayed the same at 47.3 the low was 1979 at 44.2 that was a 41-year high

in june, it was 3.1, back to 2011 rick santelli, good friday morning, everybody live from poll 9 i'm here with leslie picker. david and morgan are off today >> a big tech day here herer three big movers, apple and amazon closing out a big week, both higher after bess than expected results. more on that in a moment currently amazon up more than 12% this morning intel slashing its full-year guidance on the back of

disappointing results. that stockdown more than 10% right now. finally check out the move in roku. counsel's john black ledge joins us this morning to discuss >> revenue was above the high end of the guidance for the first time, and that was driven by, and the it was kind of in

line and second we have this they told us last night that was probably going to be down next year so we raised our price targets to outperform. does it run we had where we on the name, and what do you say to people why would i go long with amazon when clearly the consumer is feeling more pressure. >> it was interesting, they double the size of a and what did we hear last night

that has a product converse and more demand. north america led this revenue beat, and i think it's leading the guide, because delivery speeds are better. we raised our north american forecast going forward off the on one hand, it's not indicative, but on the other hand, does it say something about the lien aance yeah, i dot think so i think these called out last

night by 2030 they'll have enough of the rivian evs on the road within the transportation part no, not at all they have certainly goals as it relates to esg goals rivian is a big part of it >> john appreciate that pretty much, much great to see you have a good weekend. all right. thank you. turning from one big tech name to the next, apple making ga gates. apple continues to grow. our next guest sees the company's issues as sick lay cal, not structural, reiterating his buy rating on the stock. joins is a wamzi, thank you for being here

can you just outline what the challenges really are, and how long do you see that cyclicality of the challenges playing out? >> absolutely, leslie. i think when you look at the portfolio, the area their sickly kill, you have macs and ipads constrained, so those who have some cyclical exposure, i think iphone by and large has proven to be a very stable platform, so not seeing the boom/bust you see historically the iphone sales are much more resilient. you know, the app store has some cyclicality to it. we think that will be the cyclical headwind near tome.

but none of these are structural per se you still have a lot of room for growth in each of these categories. >> a few weeks ago there was a report that indicated apple would be slowing hiring amid the headwinds. that spooked investors at the time, and brought down the broader market as well, that apple is seen as almost a safe haven and if they were looking at slowing, what does that say to the rest of the economy do you think the market kind of over-read some of the concerning signs from that report >> good question i think when you look at apple and what history has shown us is apple spends at an increasing cadence to every downturn in every cycle. they are looking at products launching 3, 4, 5 years from

today, right investments will continue to make, it doesn't matter whether the economy is softening for two quarters or not. so you just have the long-term projects, where you just -- for the car project. it's just that apple has the ability to withstand near-term volatility while the company will be cautious about op-ex, and we've seen them manage op-ex in extreme conditions, but in terms of investing for growth, that i think is not going to stop so i think it's a bit overrated in terms of them pulling back on hiring i actually think they're going to continue to really invest areas that are critical, and maybe on the margin just slow down a tad bit if they need to, if the economy goes into a full stop

>> we've watched how you over time have gotten incrementally more constructive on apple do you think this ratified that view what's critical right now how important is anything? directv? sunday ticket? something else we like to try to manage expectations and ratings based on what we think, if there's a capability for appearing to outperform, given the broader macro conditions, where we know the macroeconomy is decelerating, but you have a lot of faith in somewhere apple can deliver on earnings. $6 in earnings is realistic, that's a lot more to say relative to a whole bunch of other companies. if you look at relative

performance, when you look forward, product -- especially when you launch completely new categories, those are times when you can see the multiple expand. in the near term, we are concerned that services is very important it's going to decelerate so, i think, again,ist a cyclical -- we think they're head ed, there's a lot f cross-transference, but we think it will do well. a road map for the rest of the hour, more apple and amazon. >> plus a check on the chips

finally, not everyone happy. while one analyst says higher rates are like oxygen. don't go away.

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i guess we should give him kudos for still coming on. >> this was a tough quarter. earnings per share at 29 cents versus 70 cents expected then the guide but look at data center was down 16% year over year that's data central. cloud, you know, you like at microsoft results, aws results, overall businesses have been spending the consumer was down 25%. that's a lot the real concern, though, is in inventories, right intel is saying customers are working down their inventory levels, we're heading into q4. they're saying this is sort of the trough, but how can we be s sure >> that's a key question with

regard to inventory. that's indicative of the match between supply and demand right now, which is something that intel reiterated wouldn't really catch up until 2024. what kind of dilemma does that give them? you have softening demand, but on the other hand, you have this -- >> you had me at "on the other hand." >> i did that on purpose. >> that's the issue. how can you understand how the consumer will behave over the next few quarters? or is it a matter of working down a certain amount of excess niv torrie that others are holding. they're in a bad product position amd has been doing well and they're in the midst of this turnaround this is the hardware version where they just saw a rapid, rapid deceleration in advertising demand and everybody was, like, whoa, what is the read-through it raises a lot of questions for the next few months.

>> it comes on the backdrop of the stimulus package that looks like it's going to be signed by the president with regard to putting more money to work in semiconductors intel itself even suggested, if that bill is signed, then it would be kind of a green light go for them to do more cap ex and build more factories here. >> it's a tough go with this foundry strategy that they've got, with this fab roll-out. you see the benefits for that years out, but this was important, pat gelsinger was out front argues for the chips act put a lot of money on the table in ohio, and as part of this, he says we're still on track with that strategy, because this is beyond this short-term headwind, the future of intel, it's in the right place going forward.

at the same time slowing down capital spending by about $4 billion. >> slowing down is putting it mildly that's a huge cut to cap ex. t.j. rogers joins us this morning to talk about the intel path i wonder, t.j., was there a way to make this quarter less bloody or is the macro just overwhelming a the this point? >> the macro is overwhelming i think i have on your show nine months ago, when we want my god, year running out change-ups, yada yada. i said they will overreact and there will be a glut of chips. watch micron when they start selling fewer d-rams which are in every sim, then you're one quarter away

from the rest of the world seeing the same issue. >> how do you think that inventory correction, which they want is the biggest in a decade, affects the optics at least of this reshoring >> well, the reshoring effort, despite being promoted as solving the chip problem, never has. that was outright deception. it's subsidy to the industry i think that's bad i think it not only hurts the americans who will have to deal with the inflation from that extra money. i think it hurts the industry itself quick example why it's hurting the industry i'll say something negative in a minute, but i think intel is one of the best companies ever on the face of the earth and they have changed our lives, but

intel screwed up for about a decade, had a president who was a financial guy, god behind, got behind the taiwanese on the curve, and across the way their arch-rival hired a woman ph.d. asian m.i.t. great, and she kicked intel's butt. intel went ahead in performance in personal computers. now, what's the reward for open competition and winning in open competition? the reward is intel has better lobbying they get billions, amd doesn't it screws up competition, and that's what built the semiconductor industry, not government pork. >> well, they do still face significant competition here in the u.s., obviously. there is some rebirth, as jon was mentioning, from their results to others as well, so to put a fine point on t. you don't

believe the chips act will, over the long run, be a good thing for intel? >> it will be great for intel. free money is always good, but it won't be good for the chip industry, the ones who doesn't get it when i ran cypress semiconductor, my company was diagnose allowed to buy the latest equipment, because only members of the consortium were allowed to buy the most advanced equipment. i raised hell about that and we aren't to congress no, intel will do great. they're excellent at lobbying, but the industry will not do as well >> finally, t.j., the chinese commerce industry had a comment, saying it would distort global semi supply chain, do you sense any retaliatory effort in the works from china >> sure. think about us and russia.

tit for tat, we take their yachts, they do this, we do that first of all, let me say up front, the chinese are the bad guys they abuse human rights, and they have big problems, all right? but having said that, we're better off trading with them every american is better off to buy economically prized goods from china for the goods they can make sure, they'll retaliate. they can't retaliate on chips. they're behind and they'll stay behind, something that happened in the trump administration that cut off advanced equipment will keep them farther behind, but look at all the stuff they make we need. they will find ways to get back at us. having two governments fighting with each other is not good for the average american we all to figure out how to work together to the benefit of both sides. if we want them to become freer and better as a society, we talk

about freedom and why it's important, not start doing economic sanctions of various kinds. >> yeah. well, that explains why the phone call this week, and maybe an in-person people, which according to records is in the works as well. t.j., that helps us to understand great to see you, thank you rin >> thank you. let's get a check on in. xle higher today, much higher today, but 16% off the early june highs, as wti crude continues to see pressure. second negative month in a row core holdings, a bit higher today. higher prices for oil and goods this quarter and strong margins boosting results there you can see exxon up 4.8%, chevron up nearly 8% rhtig now we're back in a moment stay with us

quote, higher rates are like oxygen, but the 75 basis point high this weeks that oxygen is flowing, but not equally for all banks. the white line you can see there, that's for an etf of regional banks so you can see that clear breakout in performance, accelerating over the last month or so. renal seasonal banks are positive though hughes i today. the s&p is down about 7.5% during that time period, at mayo describes it regional banks have led the way. given the profitability -- on loanmaking they're also generating -- they have less wall street banking headwinds.

>> also providing some concerns surrounding those firms. regional banks are seen as more of a pure play on the traditional business of loan making and deposit taking. however, if recession fears do boil over into widening credit spreads, that could disrupt the flow of credits, so community banking do have to be careful. obviously a re -- a steep recession by whatever technical measure you're looking at would be a problem for just the banking sectors. >> luckily spreads have come in -- i would guess if the markets are so convinced there would be rate cuts next january, for example, what does that mean, and does the conversation go back to expense >> so i think you've got the situation where investors are saying, wet, at least in the

short term we kind of feel confident there had be a buying cycle, what kind of benefit will we see going into 2023 because so far everybody has raised their naii guidance, nobody in the -- at least in the c-suite is really talking about what a pivot would look like and what it would mean for business in 2023, but it will be interesting to see that inflection point >> when we come back as washington throwing out the playbook, after the break. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are?

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i'm bertha coombs, here is your cnbc news update this hour planning to offer updated covid-19 booster shots in september. the vaccines will be reformulated to perform better against the now dominant and extremely contagious omicron subvariants ba.5 and ba.4. monkeypox dollar aces are issued as they try to cope with the continues spread infections continue to rise in new york, and san francisco declared a state of emergency. meantime airports, parking lots and the entire las vegas strip, which has some of the world's most famous casinos and hotels were flooded last night. video footage shared on twitter shows streets consumed with floodwater i can't even imagine that raining in vegas, much less flooding, leslie back to you.

>> i thought vegas was in the desert last time i checked, but this is 2022, so i guess stranger things have happened. those videos are wild, though. thank you for bringing that to us. amazon shares popping double digits deirdre, you've been covering this company in a long time now. so basically the nuclear winter for tech has not materialized. actual optimism, amazon's quarter separated they saw a step up, and they have already started to get warehouse over capacity issues under control.

like microsoft, it did deliver and guidance was positive, it was upbeat the street doesn't seem to care with another quarter of losses in the third ceo andy jassy has demonstrated he knows the amazon playbook, and he's demonstrated he's going to use it to emerge from the pandemic even stronger, even if that means shedding nearly 100,000 employees in the last quarter alone. amazon's views on inflation, that could curb some of the enthusiasm today they expect them to remain strong, if amazon doesn't think inflation has peaked, there's at indicator for now, though, amazon previously -- looks like a re-acceleration story. that's what the street is focusing on now, as others are having to take their medicines

>> there's no question that guidance it was to the up side that's why we have seen some price targets go up. we'll talk more about that in a bit. in the meantime, last trading day of the month, markets an hour into trading, we are at 4112 on the s&p. art cashin is joining us this morning. do you think the pain trade is still to the up side >> they're ending a glorious month gloriously, for sure, carl the news from amazon was a big market mover, in the sense that most mountainses have been wary of given any kind of guidance. i way i read it, they're pretty

upbeat fridays have a bias to the up side. i still think it's a really in a bear market. it's lasted longer than any in this year, and it's eating up a lot of technical space between 4,000 and 4175, so the bulls are in charge and they're doing a nice jon we have the ten-year back to 2.66 well, i think the keep thing to

mention there is the bond yield. i think that's been a big help to keep this bear market rally alive. strangely some of that has been our old friend bitcoin which tumbled and had people worried about if structural things were wrong. so we've gotten that pressure down on the ten-year yield. that's allowed the megacaps to -- it's been an absolute star performer, so i think you have some mild distortions, but you have to tip your hat to the fact that the russell is moving up, that the breadth is as strong as it is so they're in gps shape. it's beyond me i see the same thing

you're filling a gap between 4,000 and 4175 i won't argue about the 4100 not horrible, but a little weaker in the beginning and the end, so we'll see what happens >> art, how do you think the fed is reading some of this market activity it wouldn't necessarily, if you were looking at an econ textbook indicate that you would see perhaps the last week of the best month in two years for the s&p. you think the fed is reading this as a sign that, you know, maybe things aren't as bad, maybe they should keep tightening ownership do you think it's the reverse, where the market is reading through to 2023 and the potential for a pivot? >> certainly the market -- i'm not sure what mr. powell and hi pals were thinking, but certainly the market believes

that the fed is in a somewhat difficult place. by my recollection, every time since world war ii we've had two negative gdp quarters in a row, it's been in fact followed by a recession. now, there's one possible bailout here, and that's you could see the gdp revise that might happen because inventory was a big factor in it i think the market is reading it this way they're saying the fed is anxious and under some pressure to, if not pivot, to at least pause, take a look around and see what is going on holy smoke, what else happened this week, new legislation from congress that will pour money in at the same time that the fed was claiming it was going to take money out so, if anything, i think part of this rally is that they see the

flow of funds into the economy as neutralizing, new legislation coming in and the fed taking out. >> really quick, art i only have a minute fund strat had a moment we're in an august '82 moment where voelker pivoted, market got ahead of it, and it worked out do you see any parawlels to that >> i was here for that, even had a couple years under my belt i'm not sure we're right there i think the next two weeks will be terribly important. i admire tom lee and his technician, who is a friend of mine, but the jury is still out for me we'll continue to trip to pin you down enjoy the ice cubes, art we'll talk soon. >> see you soon. a lot of the discussion we look at why policymakers are

throwing out the playbook. if the u.s. is in or about to enter a recession consequence and the fed, they're less likely to come immediately to the recent could you see, why? stimulus have been the mainstays in the past, but that's unlikely now, given they were part of the problem this time around more stimulus is going to capacitier bay ease the the past four but fed chair jay powell said this week it is u.s. need below potential growth, in nine downturns, going

back to 1958, congress extends benefit, but treasury secretary yellen said yesterday deficit reduction is an important part of fighting inflation. >> there's deficit reduction in the bill i see deficit reduction as an appropriate acompaniment to the policy changes that the fed is putting into effect. so it's been clear there's no -- where the fed might come in. that's been clear during the sell-off what the market may be looking for, and maybe even some heard from powell a wednesday, what you might caught a gdp put, the idea that the imply contracts enough, that the fed will come to the rescue. i pretty much asked chair powell

in this during the press conference, and le didn't reveal, guys, the fed's pain threshold. >> it was good watching you guys go back and forth. you always ask the best questions. have a good weekend, steve thanks. a mixed bag of energy and etscretionary today. prty interesting more market action after the break. stay with us

coming up on "techcheck," we'll break down the intel quarter with ceo pat gelsinger the company says we do think we're on the bottom. we'll see if that's true, with him, in a few minutes, about 15 minutes away in the meantime, session highs, don't go away bubbles bubbles so many bubbles! as an expedia member you earn points on your travels,

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soaring inflation and supply-chain issues sending food prices higher and higher some items, like cooking oil, coffee and avocados, starting to ease, but still relatively high. our next guest, a wholesale distributor, has sign price increases on over 40,000 items,

three times higher than usual. dives into the state of the consumer, we are joined by tony sarsson. so 40,000 out of how many, is it pretty much across the board give us a sense of the percentage hoo so, 40,000 is the vast majority of the items we would provide to the marketplace. we're seeing it across almost everything we just came off of our fall expo this week there was a lot of energy and excitement about driving the business in the fall the buzz was around the supply chain shortages that exist, labor shortages and this dizzying pace of pricing going on right now. >> that all sounds like it's stemming from the supply side of the equation what about the demand side do you feel there's any destruction starting to take place or do you think demand is

still strong and consumers are willing to pay up for these higher prices? >> it's a little bit of a mix. we're seeing consumers staying robust, seeing some units down and making productive choices. for example, we're seeing about 2x the growth on our private label brand, our family. that brand is seeing great growth for high-quality products that had better availability that a lot of the national brands and priced more aggressively we're seeing people make those choices as they come in and shop our stores >> tony, what do you make of some of the declines we're seeing, very specific types of consumables. i'm thinking outright deflation in chicken wingses we know what corn and wheat have done at the commodity level. do you think things -- is the log jam in the delivery? if that's the case, why wouldn't that also be getting better as we see freight rates and energy prices come down >> a lot of the items that are

seeing some deflationary experiences are more -- are agriculture, they're more cyclical and seasonal. we're seeing center store pretty aggressive pricing across the board. we're seeing it in eggs, a lot of the dairy items the overall inflationary picture is still pretty high and we're working aggressively with our suppliers right now to help contain that we're actually launched an overall transformation in the way we engage with our food -- with our food manufacturing partners we want to get back to winning the way we won before the pandemic we were confident they want to do that with us as well. we want to make sure we're not adding to -- collectively the industry is not adding to inflationary pressures and using very reasonable justification for those price increases. >> right is labor a big part of it? is it is, that's going to be what some argue is a stickier problem in terms of returning supply to the market if we really are in some sort of

structural change in the way in which we get labor into the labor force. >> i think that's precisely right, carl. labor has been the driving issue for cost pressures companies are feeling. they get folks to run their shifts, get shifts running and attract people, it costs more money. we saw over the course of the last year plus about 20% pay increases for our front line, entry-level rolls. that puts cost pressure on us and we're seeing the same from our suppliers and folks in the business. >> 20% increase, that's definitely double where inflation is thank you, tony. appreciate it. >> my pleasure tonight we have the mega cap message. what apple, amazon, microsoft and meta's earnings all meant for the market and going forward and how investors should read those results going into the second half. don't miss "the tech trade" coming up at 6:00 p.m. only on

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the fed may have just raised interest rates, but headed the other direction? mortgage rates diana olick joins us to explain this divergence. >> mortgage rates don't follow the fed, although they are impacted by the fed's overall outlook and monetary policy. mortgage rates do loosely track the yield on the ten-year treasury and that tanked yesterday due to the wider than expected drop in gdp, potentially signaling recession. as a result, the average on the 30-year fixed dropped 32 basis points yesterday to 5.22%, according to mortgage news daily. that's the lowest rate since late april of this year and well off that recent high of just over 6% in mid-june. and it was in mid-june that the red hot housing market made a sharp u-turn as demand suddenly pulled back. several of the big builder ceos have confirmed that in earnings

reports released this week they say that june jump in rates was a real inflection point. we also saw a much wider drop in newly built sales in june. we got that report earlier this week showing sales down 17% from a year ago this rate drop is definitely a reprieve and rates had been inching lower for the past few weeks. that may be having a small impact on buyers already real estate brokerage red finn put out a report saying they saw a slight uptick in searches and home tours as rates dropped, that reverse aid ten-week trend that began mid-april the interest has not yet carried through to contracts or sales, but given this downturn, i did have a new screen made, leslie many thanks to our production team for the fast work on that had to have the arrow go down. >> how big of a lag do you typically see for lower rates to translate into more sales and

contracts? >> well, it's going to depend on how the consumers feel about the overall economy. it wasn't just the rates popping up past 6% it was also those big inflation headlines we saw in june and consumer confidence overall, not just in the housing market but in their own personal financial situation. if they start to feel better about the economy and we do see rates stay in this lower range, you might then see that translate. but we're definitely not there yet. >> i was going to say, how long do the rates need to actually at least feel a little lower before that kind of changes behavior? >> well, that depends on the buyer. look, there are some buyers who simply don't qualify for a mortgage even at this rate they might have qualified at 3%, where we were, remember, just in january of this year so, those who no longer qualify, they're out regardless it's those who were on the fence, still qualified but felt that maybe they might be catching a falling knife with home prices coming down a bit or just didn't feel secure enough in their own personal economics.

so, there's no real way to tell at this point, but it will certainly help in the long run >> and the market activity in july could certainly help things as well. thank you so much. turning to the markets quickly, the s&p 500 up about 1% the nasdaq up 1.4% that's it for "squawk on the street." "techcheck" starts right now. >> good friday morning i'm carl quintanilla, deidre bosa and john ford investors betting on apple and amazon as recession fears rock tech intel getting crushed. ceo pat gelsinger says their own execution issues are to blame. we'll check on that on the passage of the chips act roku shares plummeting we'll discus