can do more than owning the individual stocks. >> farmer jim? >> general motors. traded down on earnings that were pretty good and then was rising. >> that will do it for "halftime. "the exchange" begins right now. thank you, frank hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. stocks up again today led by the tech trade amazon and apple leading the way today. roku a total disaster falling 21%. plus if we could make more we would sell more. fresh off the meeting with the president the ceo of corning joins us with the take on the recession and inflation. gina sanchez is buying the farm, three ag stocks she likes and

one food name she is steering away from. dom chu has the numbers? dom? >> we have a nice rally today to follow up on the general positive theme to end this particular july with right now the dow industrials up 200. the s&p 500 up about a full percent. 4115 the last trade. the composite up 1.3%. as you can see, just about the most important sectors out there are in the green so we'll keep an eyen that one place to keep an eye on is the energy complex overall there's a reason why energy. the oil majors integrated names came out with earnings that topped expectations. chevron with a nice boost to up the higher end of the stock

buyback guidance chevron and exxon leading higher energy etfs that track the market all doing very solid gains with it. watch that energy trade. and then the one place that you got to kind of keep an eye on with whether or not to indicate something broadly speaking is intel. chipmaking giant no doubt but down after disappointed results on the top and bottom lines and cut the full-year forecast and investors are worried about how this may signal softening demand keep an eye on intel nonetheless, despite that amazon doing heavy lifting in the discretionary field. >> thank you. >> this is the week that the gdp data told a recession story but the rest of the minutes spinning a different tale tuesday a key leading economic

gauges unexpect antly climbed for june another leading gauge this time of the labor market yesterday improve jd jobless claims dropping to 256,000 and gdp for the second quaefrt negative at 0.9% second straight quarterly drop in real terms. today the employment cost index higher showing strength in wages. while the fed's preferred inflation gauge not good hotter than expected rising 1% for the month for the pce. .6 for the core. bring it is year on year 6.8% and 4.8% for the core. are we in a recession? is it inflation plaguing the

economy? joining us is diane swong, chief exist at kpmg. welcome. inflation the boogie man here. >> absolutely. that's a key issue looking at the inflation adjusted employment cost index, the inflation adjusted wages what you see is what consumers are feeling that they have lost everything that they have gained through wage gains and then some to inflation and i think that's what's really the issue out there at the moment. that doesn't mean we won't hit a full-blown recession that economists call a recession by the end of year but at the moment we are not in a recession but to say it is not painful is wrong. it is extremely painful eroding living standards. >> a 75-year low recently. the markets right now, bond

market you could argue stock market certainly telling you that inflation is a conquered beast. do you believe that's the case and will go from the readings in the last couple months to something like the 2% sustainable range that break evens are pricing in and that the 10-year yield seems to be reflecting >> i wish that was the case. i don't think that's easily the case i think we have to see the unemployment rate rise significantly to get to the fed's 2% target sustained and derail the inflation we have building 0 throughout. the fed's goal is to have inflation not influence the behaves at all and it's skewing household behaviors and firm behaviors and important to keep in mind as we go into the fall

that even as inflation cools will it cool enough to not become more entrempled the fed wants to avert that mistake of the 1960s and '70s that delivered the stagflation not going far enough to derail the inflation we got. >> it seems like the headlines about recession will complicate the effort to fight inflation and make it sound to the public and maybe to policymakers themselves they shouldn't risk tightening too much but perhaps they should. what did you make of the pickups in the pce readings? gasoline prices dropping .6% for the core excludeing food and energy entirely. >> yeah. we every going to see somewhat better numbers but the fed is saying we don't go on the

laurels of supply coming up to meet demand and inflation uncoiling's. there could be other supply blocks out there the fed should be worried about persistence. that may not be enough and we could get hit again and i think the fed is on the right side of saying we still got to be tightening here and may adjust how much we tighten a lot of data between now and september. at least a half percent move by the fed only that would bring monetary policy into what's considered tight. but also remember in september we'll be seeing that full balance sheet runoff by then that's going to amplify rate hikes and the tightening of credit market conditions in ways that nobody knows exactly how. that's something that's difficult for the fed.

nobody including the federal reserve knows exactly how reductions play out over the next six months. >> in that sense we are all right to look to the markets saying they were warning the fed was behind the curve and now perhaps we trust and take comfort in that return to a long term trend real quickly there's a debate i guess between larry summers and chair powell whether we have reached neutral. yes we are now up around 2.25% maybe 2.5% on fed funds. summer said it's not neutral what's the destination point do you think? can the fed get there? do you think they'll be cutting rates next year? >> i actually don't think they will be cutting rates next year. i think the fed is raising rates into 2023 and then holding them

and seeing how far that gets them i don't think this is a fed that's willing to risk on a more entremplged inflation behind the kumpb and taking the damage to the credibility. that said that means that this is a fed to risk a deeper recession and something we don't often talk about is the fed has no way to calibrate how rapidly the economy slows and how deep any recession we have. they would like at worst a mild recession. raising the unemployment rate a little too much but the reality is they don't have the ability and the precision tools to calibrate what happens and i think the biggest threat to the fed is that they hit a trip wire and we see the sins of low rates play out and some seizure in credit and markets where they have to intervene where the

inflation we see has not yet been derailed. >> totally agree 5 and 10-year inflation expectations picked up i don't want to call it a policy error but suggests they see a loosening of the thing we try to calm down. thank you. we'll let you go and have a great weekend. thank you so much. >> thank you. my next guest says even if we head into a recession it is already priced in and adding stocks to the portfolios what does he make about the discussion jason brady is president and ceo of thornburgh investment management a comment on the macro landscape you think we are in. >> i think diane is right in the context of the fed reaction function and the real challenge we may have and a trip wire is a danger the market has taken this

statement as a little more dovish than it really is as you said from a macro environment i think that we are seeing a downturn but the market is anticipating a lot of it. labor force being strong is not enough to make me excited. but actually some market pricing and the guidance from earnings are more encouraging. >> tell me what you pick up that's encouraging whether the back half could be a decent period of time regardless of what may be lurking around the corner. >> we run different portfolios and focus on multiasset portfolios i see interesting opportunities within credit. fixed income can do things that they hadn't been able to do for almost a decade to provide cushion and credit widened a lot. on the equity side there are a number of different names

benefiting from high ore yields and i think viewers should look at the financial industry. citigroup is interesting banks are often a macro challenge. going into recession it's a macro trade and they can go down but looking at troubles from at&t and weber and walmart and the view of the consumer and then bank balance sheets is a sense of the regulatory environment and the success of the last decade. that's an interesting place and pricing recession. >> elsewhere people debated citi endlessly but maybe cme group with international names and maybe the dollar is off the highs in a way that could be supportive for performance in the near term at least. >> that's right. from a macro standpoint the dollar is the dollar wrecking ball and a real challenge for international names.

that said, what you see, for example, from the ecb is that they are now moving up again like the fed is. as much? no but actually really changing the dynamic maybe of the dollar/euro from continued and relentless strength to something more in balance. almost zero russia or ukraine exposure remember insurance companies benefit from higher yeields as they invest. >> you are investing in a no recession sort of base case for, again, at least the near term? >> i actually think we are going to see a recession at the end of this year and beginning of next year where can i go, whether high quality balance sheets, excellent cash flow, dividend

return, where you see that priced already such that i am a shelter in the storm. >> understood. it is like the nuance is getting tedious but important as always for investing. >> always. >> thank you for your time. still ahead apple and amazon hitting it out of the park with the earnings roku not so much plus fresh off the meeting with the president the ceo of corning live in studio what does he say is the biggest headwind facing the industry and the company? let's get a check own markets with the dow up .6%. s&p up 1%. look at the 10-year note 2.64 wow. we are back after this

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welcome back a big 24 hours for tech with amazon shares soaring nearly 12%. apple 3% higher after beating on revenue and profit intel down nearly 9% and roku

down 25% for the worst day ever after missing. let's get to it. james chuckna has the story and trade on am zo and challenges on the ad market. welcome, everybody james, amazon was the big call, biggest bet this year. feel like it's paying off? >> absolutely. quite a relief i got to tell you. given the size in the portfolio. main takeaway from the week is that secular forces win over cyclical ones. i think what we see is that the best and brightest, the demand is here to stay and a reason looking at the faang we drop the "f" and the "n"

seeing that valuation accrue over to the platform side, the true platforms like amazon paying with delivery with facebook you're paying for free scrolling and netflix obviously is a subscription platform we are seeing that accrue with apple and amazon last night and today. >> amazon you make the case. why do you think they did manage to buck the broader trend that we see across retail with massive head winds does that piece of the business mat matter >> we think about amazon in terms of prime what am i paying for as a customer time savings on the retail side and whole host of services that come with prime from media to grocery to gaming.

whatnot. so at the end of the day this is a company that can continue to propel that flywheel forward and they did exactly what they said they were going to do. if you read the first quarter transcript the cfo said do not be fooled by the revenue growth numbers you see and every reason to believe it would reaccelerate back to the averages of 20%. they guided to 21% the revenue dwroet is coming back demand is not articficial to drive leverage now and down the road. >> you think the stock's a double in the next couple years. what about apple do you like it like amazon >> i do but we don't own as much

given the fact that the valuation, it is fairly valued we think but there's earnings power there. the demand like amazon is there to stay and the customers is is that the lifetime value of an apple customer is far greater than any company in the world and continues to grow. but you have to keep in mind that the valuation and the market cap so we think we continue to hold the position but only see about 10 to 20% more upside. >> what about the rest of the ek >> look. whether we are in an actual recession, how bad it gets we're not sure in times of economic uncertainty the company that is prove now in the second quarter that the

growth was real and the demand is real that the sustainable averages of growth are intact and we think that the company and as long as you're surgical there's opportunity in tech. and that we continue to be very long and very bullish. >> thank you now with everything he described pivot to talk about those that aren't benefiting like intel and roku julia, a slowdown in ads a theme again for roku. >> yes that's a main factor cited by roku ceo explaining the fact to miss earn and revenue estimates for the quarter but guided to lower results and couldn't sustain any outlook for the second half of the year and seeing a broad based advertising

pullback indicating that across sectors they see advertisers take a pause one thing that's interesting is advertisers to commit a lot in the up front ad period and now when they have the opportunity to not do any spending in the last minute or scatter market they say we'll take a pause until we have insight on the consumer. >> this is so reminiscent of the discussion of snapchat we heard from meta and google, what's the takeaway? >> i think it's more nuances than roku states you are in tough times trying to optimize the costs including marketing. efrlg close to the consumer is actually going to be left alone rkt possibly increased and farthest are cut

google paid search is last step and potentially an often first step leading to purchase brand advertising is furthest from the consumer so most cut that is a company will do is brand advertising side and that's what is affecting roku. it is broad for roku and not necessarily broad for google and facebook is in the middle. meta is in the middle. >> i was thinking of you looking at proctor & gamble. are they the big advertising customer you are talking about >> they're not that very direct to consumer. direct to consumer brands to tend not to pull back on things like paid search and paid social most out products are sold through other sellers like target and those kind of sellers

so proctor & gamble they are in the big category of brand advertisers likely to make cuts but for amazon the sellers are likely to move more. you move budget closer to the consumer and then everything else suffers. >> what do roku do on this this is a huge challenge showing they're not close enough to the subscriber to get the prize dollars. >> that's right. i would say that the market is also getting more competitive. not only for the streaming ad dollars with paramount plus and peacock and hulu and the athd supportered streamers but you see disney plus with the market with an ad supported version of the app and netflix.

it is increasingly crowded and c competitive. the closer a plalt form is to the consumer the more to directly measure not only what someone wants or went and bought it and the better off they will be i would watch amazon in this space. similar to what google has with search. >> full service to the moves of today. thank you. you won't be hearing from jim cramer tonight but dee dre bosa will be there make sure you don't miss that, that's the special tonight. still ahead, a farm to table theme for today's three buys and a bail the bail is this mystery chart down more than 50% this year the name and why gina sanchez is staying far away

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welcome back i'm bertha coombs. russia and ukraine are trading accusations after dozens of ukrainian prisoners of war killed in a separatist region of eastern ukraine.

russia said they found fragments of a u.s. made rocket in the prison ukraine denies it is responsible. they said russian soldiers detonated explosives inside the prison. the justice department is accusing a russian man of being responsible for what it calls a brazen influence campaign that turned u.s. citizens and a group into instruments of the russian government by amplifying political divisions in the country in the most extensive comments since slapping chris rock in the oscars will smith said he is deeply remorseful saying he tried to speak with rock and told the comedian is not yet ready to engage. >> so i will say to you, chris,

i apologize to you my behavior was unacceptable and i'm here whenever you're ready to talk. on the news tonight video evidence of unusual visitors that are delighting new yorkers. that's at 7:00 eastern time. kelly, i understand that you are anchoring tonight. >> i think it is tyler i would guess the dolphins. >> that's what i was wondering we have to wait until 7:00. >> i don't want to ruin it but i think it might be the dolphins thank you. up next, headed to the farm in the food edition of three buys and a bail. the food name to leave behind. it's all next. . you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

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welcome back inflation continuing to run hot. the pce index rose 6.8% in june. so we wanted to take a look at some of the names that might be weathering the increases and

some that can't in the the edition of three buys and a bail next guest is going farm to table with the picks joining me is gina sanchez it is great to see you let's start with john deere. by the way, a side note but roku talked about that and that was just a disaster. >> absolutely. yeah where could we go with that. >> a million different places but talk food. john deere is on a hot streak. up 10% this week down less than a% this year. now say it's the quintessential agriculture play. >> john deere is focusing on building tractors to evaluate where to plant the seeds it is entirely about yield if you look at what happens if

ukraine continues to be a war zone never mind the energy play the ag play is equally catastrophic to the inflation story. that food price inflation is huge and so farmers have to be able to get the best yields and right now because food prices are high farmers make tons of money when you see farm receipts next year you see big tractor buying. john deere has the best tech options. >> as we move to mosaic the names are bucking the trend and doing quite nicely mo mosaic up 32%. >> that story is going for a while and we think it still has room to grow right now forecasts still 19%.

it's trading at four times earnings not overpaying for the company with the price appreciation. so mosaic is in the business of fertilizer and it's got a two-prong play they also mine for phosphates and about to pass a climtd bill. mosaic will get it on a couple sides with demand for the product. >> final buy of yours, arthur daniels but the stock up 21% in 2022. >> they are sort of a middleman. they basically go and source the crops and the carbohydrates and mill it. they turn it into product to be used in the food and beverage

market no they have an expected 50% eps growth next year that's huge. you get a pretty good deal with this. >> those are the three all farm to table buys there is another name in the food space if we want to call it that a former darling doordash down 54%. >> yeah wh got a lot of love in the pandemic and the problem with doordash and i wasn't a lover even in the pandemic because the model doesn't work they are upside down in the operating leverage why they lose money for every meal they deliver. there's no path to reversing then we don't see this as any kind of a long term sustainable

invest. >> what about uber more diversified but facing the same fundamental challenge. >> uber has managed to cross over into profitability. uber eats is only a tiny component of what uber is trying to do. i was never a lover of uber. i probably still am not because the way they came into the industry is to disrupt it selling cheaper price dumping into the industry and now they can't keep it up so everybody's complaining uber costs more. that's real life, kids. >> yeah. i think about wit the start-ups. don't templt me. i know where this is going. >> exactly. >> three buys and a bail stocks looking to close out a positive week. the drivers of the rally in a

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♪♪ take the world by cloud. accenture let there be change. welcome back to "the exchange." closing out the week here with the dow up about 200 points. nasdaq leading the way with a 1.4% gain. all 11 sectors in the green this week looking to be positive for the markets. energy, utilities and industrials leading the way. some of the moves this hour are proctor & gamble they missed by a penny on the bottom line. consumers pull back shares down 5.5% new features for drivers not

enough to boost uber today announcement enhancements is up front fares and where they go. trip radar which is trip requests nearby and debit card uber shares fall 1% and denying merger reports stronger than expected earnings this week, an intraday all-time high at 286. look at first solar. the biggest mover on the session up 14% the semiconductor industry is slowly getting back to normal but another shortage hitting tech of fiber optic cables we'll talk to the ceo of corning with them as customers how and when this will be fixed. that's next.

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up soaring demand for fiber optic cable used in telecommunications and high-speed internet. demand at all-time highs use and globally up 33 pat% from pre-pandemic norms government investments in the infrastructure bill aim to connect everybody else if manufacturers could keep up. joining us is wendell weeks of corning, part of president biden's ceo roundtable thank you for coming up here. >> thank you for having me. >> the challenge or maybe the opportunity yesterday to highlight what the strength of the economy at the white house. but you are facing some challenges getting enoug product to customers is that right? >> it is mixed the president wanted our insight what's going on with the economy

and since we just posted our quarter two results it is pretty easy to share. we grew about 7% in revenue year over year. underneath the surface which is very strong demand in infrastructure, optical communications and solar, more than offsetting some softness in consumer electronics and auto. >> i wonder because consumer is to visible that's the softest part supersonics that why everyone is thinking the economy is weak but demand still sounds pretty strong and the industrial areas. >> totally depends on the business you are in. for solar and optical communications, the infrastructure of the future we see demand continuing to be quite strong. >> do you have trouble meeting supply >> at the moment things are tight. if i could make more i could sell more why which is a good

place to be in some regards but we want to be able to build enough capacity so that the customer cans get the needs met and we are doing that. we are in the midst of s.t.a.r.t.ing a new fiber fafl and optical cable facility. >> feel free to announce anything you want to we are not the white house but we'll take it. we spoke to a smaller manufacturer earlier this year 15% of the workforce is basically gone missing since the pandemic among other challenges what are you seeing on the labor front? >> we are really lucky 172-year-old company we invent life changing innovations and when we hire the line pretty much goes around the block. tend to be lifetime employers have we haven't had a problem

attracting talent. it's a blessing. >> do you have a sense what the wages are up year on year? looking at reasons to avoid recession that is one of them. >> definitely. the pay is up year over year for the production workforce and the salaried workforce there's good and bad inflation what happened is our customers reduced by about two-thirds, a big carrier of customers and the hyperscale players and the 5g players reduced by two-thirds and then when we all went into the pandemic, demand soared. broadband usage went up by 50%, 60%. cloud-based revenue went up to

60%, 70% and all people became connected to broadband and what that did is it outstrapped the already in place capacity so we have to catch up for that and so now our customers have increased their capex by about ten times. >> yeah. wow. and so all we need to do is catch up to that and we'll get enough in, and it will take us a little bit of time, but we'll be up and ready to go >> the delay might be a benefit because if that demand doesn't all persist you don't want to get caught short, sort of flat footed by that and we know we're building this for the long run final question, you have been ceo as you said for 15 years you worked through the great recession or it must have been around that time you've been through a number of different kinds of economies how would you describe the current environment that we're in and how does it compare with other ones that you've had to navigate >> i think the current environment's different in some ways, but also just worth reflecting back over the

pandemic because of the -- we've had 60,000 great people now, much bigger than when i took over we've grown as much in revenue over that time period as the whole size of the company was when i first took over and there's more and more opportunities, even in a macro environment that's soft, there's always micromarkets for growth especially if you have new innovation and that's what we've been blessed with the last two and a half years and we'll see how we navigate this latest. >> sure. i would also wonder if your material cost inflation is better or not. do you see it letting up there or is it still your biggest issue? we still have inflation haunting us what we have to do is go to our customers and sort of share that cost more appropriately and that's what's what's behind our increasing profitable and quarter two, our customers have been kind enough to agree with us and it would be appropriate

for them to take their fair share. >> i'm sure it's out of the kindness of their hearts wendell, eight great to have you here >> my pleasure. >> wendell weeks, the ceo of corning. u.s. energy firms add nat gas and oil rigs and that's according to the baker hughes weekly number out and take a look at the prices wti crude up 2%. and total rigs 767 this week and that's the highest that we've seen since the pandemic and up by per than 57% compared to this time a year ago. still ahead, july has been good to this logistics company whose shares are up 20% for the month and we'll reveal it and talk about why the transports keep on truckingo nd tfi that recession talk that's next. ar, turboflex. turboxflex frames are engineered with a 360 degree hinge disguised in the design.

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transports, higher by 10% in july frank holland is here to highlight the biggest individual gainers including that mystery chart which was xpo. frank? >> hi there, kelly it's not just xpo. ark best also up 20% this month. other big trucking names outperforming the s&p. a lot of this is due to the uncertainty around labor negotiations and 45% of all imports enter and labor negotiations with u.s. rail workers. also consumer spending numbers they've remained strong despite inflation and retail up 6% in june year over year and up 17% compared to pre-pandemic and the stickiness of e-commerce and the tailwind and i spoke to the ceo of scion from starbucks and home depot. he said companies are putting a much higher value. >> we feel like it's very indicative of what of the customer is getting in return

and it's a high-level service, and what that rate will look like for the balance of the year >> as the west coast continues talks, that's just another positive for trucking companies. they can charge more to help companies reconfigure their supply chains. kelly? >> so the message for a lot of investors, frank the transports are a classic indicator to watch for market sell-offs, bear market, recession, you name it and this month it's going the other way. >> yeah. absolutely one phrase in the transport industry is that mystery equals margin the more questions there are about labor negotiations, backups and warehouse space and things like that, that's better for more transport companies >> true. we can have the wrong kind of mystery. they couldn't just benefit from this booming economy do you think that's changing

now? i'm not so sure about the labor side >> the labor side especially for the rails are challenging. they hire people, but people go to their training classes, if you will, and they decide it's just not for them. it's very demanding work and rowe you have to work long hours. >> the stocks are still down more than 10% easily for the year this month, though, marking a little bit of a trend. frank, thank you very much we appreciate it our frank holland on the transports and we will trade another export, solar, the invesco solar etf bouncing 20% and it went positive for the year yesterday we have name to buy beginning on "power lunch" which begins right now. ♪ >> thanks, kelly we'll see you in just a couple of minutes here.

welcome to "power lunch," i'm dominic chu in for tyler matheson big tech buys and our market pro this hour adding to some of his positions and warns investors, and why growth isn't trumping down just yet and why she's finding opportunities. plus the powerhouse road trip heads to boise, idaho where buyers are balking at high prices and walking away from certain deals and we'll bring you the on the ground view from the housing market when that comes out, kelly boise, idaho, we're going to go there. >> the best month of the year and it's been ayer pretty terrible year after all. the nasdaq up 1.2% -- i'm sorry, 1.5% and the s&p in the middle with a 1.2% gain and 4120 is the level for the s&p 500. amazon shares soaring 11% almost 12 now putting it on track for the biggest monthl