perhaps a signal in the earnings numbers? >> i think the number 1 thing is the jobs numbers. i thought this past week was busy but, next week might be even busier. i think the tech earnings are key to watch. >> deftly, amd and the jobs number, thank you. that will do it for overtime, fast money begins now. >> right now, a sizzling start to the summer, stocks ripping higher in july. can the rally roll on in august? plus, a friday edition breaking down the earning action next week. later, the home-improvement stock has gotten drilled this week. falling nearly 16%. will it keep getting hammered or, can you nail a bottom?

on the desk tonight, -- garcia and, we start off with a riveting rally on wall street. the s&p closing its best month since november 2020? take a look at the stock winners in july. sc up 42%. nestli clocking in its best month since january 2019. ford and amazon going back to 2009 and 2007 respectively. big tech earnings with the fed -- what do you say? >> i think the reality is that we were kind of set up going into earnings for a rally. expectations were fairly low. the s&p very short. the market was coiled for this -- and not surprisingly, as

prices go up, sentiment is shifting again. inflows into stocks and high yield in pretty large numbers. i think the problem is, right now, you are only seeing 75% of stocks above their 50 day moving average. typically, 90% is escape philosophy. i do not think we have seen the breath that is typically associated with the market now all of a sudden being able to move rapidly to new highs. the important thing to consider is that july was a good month, we are very much still within the context of a typical beer market rally. it has been about 28 days since the recent low. the average is 32 days with a move of about 15%. it is good, i just do not know

that it sticks. >> you make a number of good points backed up by various data points. the question about the momentum is not necessarily have we hit the bottom? can we just simply go higher. we just showed the 10 year yield. 2.6%? that is wind in the sales of big top tech at least. >> that has been kind of a shocking move. it is pretty -- i am with the general here. i feel like things were oversold and, now they seem to be overbought. the sentiment going into that -- i think that the bounce back to me, seems typical beer market, very strong bounce back for sure. i hate -- up by inches at a time

which is what is happening. i am not buying this bounce here. >> i get that. when it comes to individual stocks, i wonder if you take a look at earnings season and say, you know what, apple looks even better today than 48 hours ago. even with the gains we have seen recently. and -- i am wondering, if you think about stocks that have posted earnings in that way. even if they have gone up on earnings. >> apple long-term is a great position to be holding. it is still a little more expensive than its longer-term averages. we actually saw they had held up a lot better in their iphone sales. the fact they have a lot more demand than expected is great. but what you are seeing is all of these names, or the furthest it came down earlier this year

and now -- if we are correct, there is another -- the bounce in tech. i do not know if that is where you want to chase things at the moment. >> let me guess what you think -- the consumer no longer wants to pay for -- trading down and that is showing signs of what is to come. >> should i give you my final trade? so, the general actually started out talking about the 50 day moving average and individual names. i agree with him there. i will look at the overall market. starting from the macro market. the place where i think we should stop is a 100 day moving average in the s&p. we closed above that. i think we just overextended.

looking at a lot of the conversations that have taken place, i thought it would be a sweet spot for the market. you have commodity prices coming in. earnings posting and, you also had the 10 year coming in as well. not all clear for stocks but, it gave you a window of opportunity to rally the markets. in the market interpreted powell as trying to maybe pivot at this point. way too early for him to pivot. if he -- we do not go into recession. he will not fail. everyone talks about a technical recession. that is semantics. we know that growth is slowing. the consumer is feeling a little bit of pain. they have not felt the pain that powell needs to inflict, to really curtail the demand out there right now.

so what happens to the overall market? i think we get a reprieve. we had the apples and amazons of the world proving they are not snap. we do not have a lot of quality companies -- we do not have a lot of amazons and apples that will report. i think you can get a little bit of a flirting with a down market. it is a good place for the market to take a pause. i think that the lows are not in just yet. >> as earning seen passes the -- check out some of today, roku down a whopping -- png, sinking 6%. intel 8%. listen to what the ceo had to say about the results today.

>> we missed yesterday, we own that. a lot of that was the economic but, a lot of that was us and our execution. we are being held accountable for that to our shareholders. at the same time, we made a lot of progress and -- to be better and, we will do better. >> here is a question is the bottom in for some of these -- charts.? >> as always, just as there are great winners, there are great losers. it is how the game is played and how the chips fall. let's look at a few. intel. one of the oldest rules in the book is don't buy stocks in downtrends. every once in a while it is right to break that. but, it is rare. usually, you want it to be something that is plunging as opposed to this, a deliberate and orderly 45 degree angle down.

candidate -- again. i would not touch this in any circumstance. look at the relative performance. this is relative to the s&p. talk about down to the right. look at a longer-term relative. this one is five years. intel as a ratio to the s&p. look at the chart going back to the 1990s. their relative performance peaked in 1989. it is been doing nothing but not rewording owners on a relative basis to other choices. i just would not do it. look at, for instance, proctor. they had a drop in gap but, i do not know what you do with that. sometimes, there is no trade. back to where it was a week ago, a month ago. it is not really doing well but, will it really crash? no trade, leave it alone. and finally, roku, like intel if you are just down and down,

as tempting as it might be to buy, just wait for the bottom. if you look at the long-term, that is the real problem. we are back to the -- above. it cannot be a good business because, it is not a good chart. >> thank you. we will see you back here for options action. karen, some people have made the case intel is a turnaround story. they have a new ceo and a plan in place. at what point do you determine it is a value trade and there is a turnaround potential and you ignore chart. that is pretty dismal. >> i think that the revenue myth to me is really disconcerting. that is an enormous -- bad things. i also, given what has happened

to the space which -- they have been such a lag or. i feel like that once in maybe a generation shift from really a market leader to a market lag or is hard to turn around. as -- as it may appear, it is not for me and i do not know that it will be. >> any of those charts, stocks look tempting to you? >> i am always tempted to do that -- even though i have the -- when you look at a stock like roku and carter mentioned the pandemic low. -- right around there to his point. if you -- which is, you have to use it on this one. i think you could shoot against

that and maybe have a bit of a rally. i think proctor, as a standalone, they were reluctant to -- prices. we have seen to fully raise prices and mcdonald's raise prices. i think proctor has to raise prices and you will see the stock rally from there. i would not touch intel. the -- will only add to that premise. >> proctor has raised prices on products and i think that is the concern. maybe these consumer staple names are at the end of their price increases. there is only so many times a consumer is willing to pay for toilet paper that costs 3% more. >> really, you are going to stop paying for toilet paper? >> no, you might trade down though, you might go to private label. that is in part, what they say is happening. >> you are correct.

we are not going to stop buying toilet paper or laundry detergent but, people are trying to trade down to cheaper alternatives. this is showing inflation is hurting the consumer right now. one of those things where, ultimately, what does this mean for the fed going forward. one of those items were maybe bad news is good news overall. -- or, weakening in demand in order to bring down inflation. we do not want to be brought down so much that will turn the economy in recession but png said it is a slight increase, not a huge downturn. but, they are also acknowledging it. a lot of their downturn also was from the shutdowns in china. it is not all the deterioration of consumer. >> tonight, do not miss the tech trade. to have -- lay out the bull and

bear cases for growth in your portfolio. that is tonight at 6:00 eastern time. (♪ ♪) how do we demonstrate our unmovable strength? (eagle call) nope. how do we show that we'll stand tall through the storms?

nah. (thunder) how do we make our clients feel secure and- ugh... not lions. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people. people who've been looking after people for over 170 years. my finances were all over the place. [door bell rings] and my banking relationship was getting well, complicated. hahaha! easy money. so, i broke up with messy accounts and moved my money to sofi. now i earn higher interest on my checking and savings, and bank, borrow, and invest—all in one app. feels nice being in control. break up with bad banking. get up to 1.50% interest, and bank, borrow,and invest—all in one app. plus, download the sofi app and earn up to $300 when you set up direct deposit. sofi get your money right.

welcome back. we have a nether busy week of earnings coming up. you will hear reports of travel, energy, pharma and restaurant. we thought this would be a good time to play a game of traded or fade it. let's kick it off with caterpillar. steve? >> it will be a traded. i am negative on the overall market but this is a habitual beater of -- eight straight quarters on eps. consensus estimates has it up a year ago quarter over a year ago quarter up 15% of the

estimate, sales up 11%. one last thing, to be quick, the chips deal we had had nothing to do with caterpillar. but, the last time that this administration has a shot at raising taxes on corporations and that means a lot to a company like caterpillar. jeff? >> i will take the other side. i look at stocks like -- behaved somewhat similarly. some of which are getting close to the 200 day -- i agree in the sense that it may be in between that 50 day and 100 day but i show -- it was cat, it showed a 30 year chart. i think it will end up being the trend.

the traditionally cyclical names, i think they are the new -- seller. >> next up, starbucks. >> i would trade this one. i think that it trades at a pretty good valuation right now. and you can see the consumer is clearly being pinched by inflation but starbucks has shown that even when they increase prices their customer base continues to spend there. also, a big part of their sales are in china. as china starts to reopen i think that will only benefit them. >> i would be a sater of starbucks. i agree with courtney, the china part is weighing down right now but, i think the consumer is somewhat strapped. i think maybe they will still go to starbucks but maybe, trade down a little bit. we know howard schultz is in the middle of a difficult

turnaround that is not really taking hold yet. the multiple, i think it is 29 times, significantly above the market. maybe cheap relative to where starbucks has traded in the past but, 29 times just too much. >> i will fade this one. i think paypal is good context. a similar company but higher free cash flow, more profitable. quality. that is the profile you want. i think at 20 times, i want something like that as opposed to something that is reliant on future -- second two strikes against you. >> i said sorry. >> i will take the other side. i think there is so much negativity in here.

significantly lower than where the market are. also looking at -- a really low bar they had to meet. longer-term, it has a lot of opportunity looking forward. there is an electronic payment system abroad that still has a whole growth potential -- might be worth a trade. >> last but not least, -- >> it is in my portfolio. clearly, it is down for the year which has not been good because of the housing association. but, -- a huge pat on the back for getting out of the very asset heavy owning business. they did a great job of liquidating that. they also have a fantastic balance sheet. they are doing aggressive buybacks. the valuation is attractive. i understand there is pressure

in the housing market but, they are the leader in the space. >> i will fade it. i think that position will be in excellent shape longer-term but, i think the damage to the housing industry probably just -- epicenter of that industry. it has not been able to get above its 50 day moving average since march. just a shade of optimism and it failed again. ultimately, okay, near term, a fade.

welcome back. time to reveal our -- black & decker. down almost 16% this week after reporting a -- guidance nearly in half. the worst week -- march 2020. is this about housing? >> maybe. the revenue -- top line leads to -- sherwin-williams also had a ms. i am surprised that home depot did not take it on the chin. this is bad.

>> how do you extrapolate this, if at all? >> there are conflicting information. looking at the overall economy, everyone wants to -- in great shape. that is only going to push a little bit harder. looking at individual stocks like stanley black & decker, by the way, this is not at the -- it has a -- pandemic low. we are just starting to see the cracks in the consumer. this one is indicative of that. a canary in the coal mine for me. >> time for the final check for this friday. >> you -- crushed it, fantastic conference call. however, the 48 point run in the stocks in the last six weeks is too much.

>> going back to my final trade from last friday. -- broken its recent downtrend. earnings were great. but if the market rolls over, this one holds up better than most. >> i love the -- been looking at the energy trade and i think it is another name that will likely continue to benefit. >> i love that game, i am going with my trade. caterpillar, great earnings, it continues. (dad) we have to tell everyone that we just switched to verizon's new welcome unlimited plan, for just $30. (daughter) i've already told everyone! (cool guy) $30...that's awesome. (mom) it's their best unlimited price ever. (woman) for $30 a line, i'm switching now. (vo) the network you want. the price you love.

only from verizon. ♪ ♪ how's he still playin'? aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength. reduces inflammation. don't touch my piano. kick pain in the aspercreme. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire (vo) is three hundred and ninety-one thousand four hundred matching your job description. and thirty-four square feet... enough space for your ambition? loopnet. the most popular place to find a space.

when you need help it's great to be in sync with customer service. a team of reps who can anticipate the next step

genesys technology is changing the way customer service teams anticipate what customers need. because happy customers are music to our ears. genesys, we're behind every customer smile. welcome to options in action.