it is 5:00 a.m. on wall street here is the top five at 5:00 can stocks keeping this month going after posting the best month in two next? futures may say no. bulls are in charge for big tech how much investors sentiment showing concern? and boeing workers back to the floor after the 11th hour strike avoidance. and no signs of slowing down as countries get ready to drop their gas demand and consumers

in the cross-hairs. what word is mentioned in the inflation bill nearly 200 times? here is a hint it starts with a "t" and rhymes with axe this is all coming up on "worldwide exchange" for monday morning. well good morning, good afternoon or good evening. as always, welcome from wherever in the world you are watching. also, welcome to august. summer is flying by. thanks for being with us good morning i'm brian sullivan let's jump into it let's get to the monday money to see if last week or month stock surge can continue right now, it is not looking like it, but it is very early. stock futures are down very slightly across the board. dow off 55

nasdaq off 45 points the major averages gaining 3 or more per scent last week dow and s&p with the best run since 2020 nasdaq up 12% in july. the question is was that the sign of the bottom in stocks or a head fake bear market rally? the best days and best weeks for the market often come in the worst of times bonds may tell a different story than stocks. they are pricing in an economic downturn the 10-year treasury was 3.3% a month ago. now at 2.67% oil is lower right now at

$96.60 opec plus meeting on wednesday this is the first meeting in two years that may not be the quick agreement to carry on the previous output plan that may be over they have to adjust every month going forward of oforward. we may get fireworks from the meeting. now let's get to crypto. as good as stocks did, crypto did better a huge week last week. ethereum up 70% in july right now, bitcoin and ethereum not continuing that run. they are both lower. last week, everything was in the green and to start this week, nearly everything in the red long way to go amazing how things change. let's see how things looking in europe with the key headline as their income crisis rolls on i can see joumanna bercetche a lot of green on the screen

good morning >> good morning, brian a lot of green on the screen asian markets. the theme for asia was the pmi numbers from china a decline down to 50.4% for july over 50.7% in june moderating on the demand and output shanghai up .20% hang seng trading on the flat line japanese index nikkei up .70%. we had pmi numbers indicating that the manufacturing output activity is the weakest in the last ten months. it is not all macro data hsbc lifted the target after the first half earnings beat they raised to 12% from next year expecting a revenue boost from rising rates.

very positive reaction stock to date lifting the indices in china quickly, this is the picture ftse 100 up .40% xetra dax up as well lots of green as you said, on the screen back to you. joumanna bercetche, have a great day. see you soon let's get to the headlines happening right now. including elon musk ramping up the legal fight with twitter seema mody is here with that and more good morning >> good morning, brian welcome back elon musk is counter suing twitter, escalating the fight with him and the company he once wanted to take private for $44 billion. the lawsuit filed late friday. under court rules, redacted version of the suit could be made public as soon as this

week musk's counter suit was filed after the chancellor of the delaware court ordered a f five-day trial to begin on october 17th. ukraine's first grain export leaving bound for lebanon. turkey brokered agreement last week with kyiv and moscow to guarantee the passage safely from the black sea ports a russian missile attack hit odesa hours after the agreement was signed. on to the rates. kashkari is calling the rates concerning and says the central bank is committed to the goal of 2% inflation he says we have a long way to go listen in. >> we're going to do everything we can to avoid recession. we are committing to bringing

inflation down we are a long way away from achieving an economy back to 2% inflation. that's where we need to get. >> on the economic front today, the july manufacturing data is expected to show a slight slowdown from june of course, brian, the countdown to the july jobs report this friday >> every piece of economic data from here on out will matter a lot to the markets and fed and inflation. so important seema, thank you very much right now, let's get back to the markets and your money coming off the july run, investors looking to the fed we just talked with neel kashkari over guidance with the jackson hole meeting at the end of the month let's bring in gina sanchez who is a cnbc contributor. gina, welcome back

you hear neel say we are doing everything we can. do you believe them? >> well, i think they are right now a dog chasing the wrong car. if anything, i think the meeting coming up with opec will matter more to inflation than anything the fed can do it makes me scratch my head. if you look at what is driving inflation, it is food because of the conflict in ukraine and energy with the conflict in ukraine. >> okay. if they are chasing quote the wrong car, what is the right car? what should the fed be doing >> you know, that is the good question, brian. if you look at what is happening in the economy, the economy --

theoretically, we could be in tech ynical recession. it is more art than science. if you look at the data that goes into determining the recession, by half of the data points being quite strong. labor and income and there are other parts that are moving sideways or somewhat weak. it is hard to say if we are in a recession. the credit card data will suggest people are still spending money although that is on credit you know, the story and picture is really murky. >> isn't that the biggest risk to the economy you just mentioned consumers are spending l.a.x., packed i was in o'hare in chicago mo mo mobbed people are putting it on credit card debt. apr is getting notices in the

mail your rates are going up. isn't that the insidious inflation that not enough people are talking about? >> you are absolutely right. it is not just that. people's mortgages anybody who has kind of floating rate mortgage is set to a higher price to cost them sticker shock. we are seeing rents going up we are see it here in los angeles and around the nation. that kind of inflation will cause a cut back of spending we could talk ourselves into recession. again, that will be a creation of interest rate normalization >> do you care if there is a technical definition do we care about that or feel it and live don't care if we feel it and live it, it will expand to the portfolio.

you have to be defensive >> that is with a matters. defensive is what people are saying gina sanchez, always a pleasure. thank you. have a great day live from los angeles. 2:00 she must have stayed up. we are just getting started on monday. when we come back, how alibaba is trying to reassure investors its new york stock listing is not going anywhere soon. and is this a good sign? retail investors are piling back into big tech. the highest rates in years later, eurasia group founder is here over nancy pelosi's asia t trip a lot to talk about with him we are just getting started. we are back right after this

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welcome back time for big money movers. three key stock stories happening now. sony shares are down after the profit forecast cut for the year citing weaker gaming business with slow sales and higher costs to develop games stock two. alibaba shares down 4% in hong kong this after the u.s. s.e.c. put it on the delisting watch on friday this could be a number of

exchange not meeting environments china bars foreign inspection of documents of accounting firms. it will work to keep the new york and hong kong listings. and a new name owner of banana boat recall because a scalp cancer risk. edgewell is not saying how many cans are recalled. check it out it seems serious. still to come, the morning rbi and key words of what may really be in manchin and schumer's big spending bill and why one says may add to inflation. ients co co d situat that occur in their lives.

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when hurting feet make you want to stop, it's dr. scholl's time. our custom fit orthotics use foot mapping technology to give you personalized support, for all-day pain relief. find your relief in store or online. welcome back i'm back and so is the rbi random but interesting from last week the 7 $700 billion manchin and schumer bill now the bill has a lot in it

725 pages long yes, 725 it is filled with legalese that make it impossible to understand almost nobody, maybe some members of congress, will read the entire thing let's be helpful by doing it the cnbc way plucking out key terms are used in the 725 pages a word cloud the number of times each of these words used in the text of the bill climate gets 38 mentions that seems a little low being it is sold as a climate bill. environment is used more 120 times. that's good. nearly $370 billion in the bill. now inflation is a key selling point for the president on down.

it is in the title of the legislation. inside the bill, the word inflation gets 42 mention. those are refrences to the title it may slightly increase inflation to 2024. i posted that study to social and linkedin you can read it for yourself here is more from the proposal maybe you should sit down for this the word tax and taxpayer or taxes is used a staggering 639 times. 639. the word tax itself alone mentioned 182 times. taxpayer slightly more of course, key revisions set a

corporate minuteimum tax rate at 15%. maybe it is not surprising what about the energy part of the bill the good news the word energy is referenced 428 times security is mentioned 81 times which is important given the bill wants to spend your money on subsidies. it is a big win for oil and gas. it will bring back to life canceled offshore drilling l leases in the gulf of mexico and alaska a little taste of the forecast us items from the 700 page piece of legislation like all proposed laws which is publicly available so you can go online and read it for yourself and decide for yourself if you like it or not just never, ever go on the bill's title alone which is no different than advertising or

something from "mad men. random and helpful let's dig into the concerrporat taxes and how this bill could play out if it becomes law ylan mui is joining us with more good morning >> reporter: good morning, brian. the lynch pin of the spending package is to make sure the profitable companies pay something in taxes the plan would create a 15% minimum tax for companies with $1 billion in profit or more it would take effect next year and bring in $313 billion over a decade the single busies biggest revene raiser in the bill joe manchin called it closing a loophole. >> most people corporates are not paying anything.

you think they would pay at least 15%. most businesses and corporations i know pay 21% that is not a tax increase it is closing a loophole >> reporter: he is critical to offset the plans to spend $433 billion to expand health care and invest in clean energy 150 to 200 companies are affected by the tax. according to the government data, retail trade and 11% are holding companies. tech and media companies make up 11%. manufacturing would take the biggest hit. accounting for half of the firms affected accusing them of repackaging bad ideas. back to you. >> so ylan, i guess what is it t the $700 billion question is what is the likelihood this

passes what is krysten sinema going to do >> reporter: she is the holdout. we don't know her plans. w she said she wants to wait to see if there is anything that might fall out of view with the senate rules she has been supportive in the past of the corporate minimum tax. that would likely stay in there if other provision goes away >> ylan mui, i'm sure you will have more on this today. thank you. let's step outside of the world of money and business and get headlines with phillip mena. >> good morning, brian eastern kentucky, more rain is making it harder to recover from the last week's historic flooding death toll has reached 28. the governor is warning that number will grow another update is expected at

9:00 a.m. eastern. hollywood is mourning the loss of former "star trek" icon nichelle nichols she busted through the barriers in the 1960s playing the communication officer lieutenant ohura. shipmates george takai mourned her passing with captain kirk crediting her for redefining social issues in america. and bill russell passed away he was an nba champion and five-time mvp and first black head coach of the sports team and civil rights leader off the court. adam silver said bill russell was the greatest champion in all of sports. michael jordan remembered him as a pioneer. he set an example for every black player in the league

at i russell was 88 years old. th'st from here. "worldwide exchange" will be back after this. when tired, achy feet make your whole body want to stop, it's dr. scholl's time. our insoles are designed with unique massaging gel waves, for all-day comfort and energy. find your relief in store or online. welcome back to earth. thanks, it was pretty life changing. dude it was eight and a half minutes. i didn't even get to finish my burrito. technology lets you vacation in space, but to get work done on earth... you need more than technology. you need cdw. so with the cisco hybrid work environment, we can deliver the same network experience to all your offices. space spaghetti. no. securely connecting your team from anywhere. houston we... have a solution. we get it greg, you've been to space. cisco makes hybrid work possible.

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a new month and market july's big run not looking like it will continue stock futures are lower. big tech a big winner some of the big names running the show is this a bear market rally or start of something larger?

and putin putting pressure on europe. ian bremmer is here with the latest on the moscow end game. it is monday, august 1st you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome or welcome back. good monday morning. i'm brian sullivan thank you for joining us on "worldwide exchange." let's get to it. see if the surge can continue. futures not indicating it might. it is early. thinly traded. dow down 38 points little red on the screen we will see where it goes. we had a lot of momentum coming into the week. major averages gains 3% or more. now, the question everybody is going to ask, was that the sign last week of the bottom in

stocks or another head fake bear market rally good question. energy stocks were the biggest winners last week. all kinds of energy with invesco solar ticker tan rose 18% in five days. what was second? the eop gas and oil. think about that renewables and fossil fuels are the best in the market last week. need the energy thing. oil is slightly lower opec is meeting on wednesday they have been rubber stamping the deal they made during covid. this meeting is the first in two years that may not be that quick agreement to carry on the plan

that is ending opec will have to make harder decisions going forward. wednesday is the meeting it will be a big one natural gas is down 4% here. in europe, prices are high natural gas spot market at 20 euro per mega watt hour. do the conversion. that is $60 here in the states we're at 7.5%? they're at 60. speaking of natural gas. the latest on the europe growing energy crisis. nord stream down 20% they restarted at 40% and now running at 20%

gazprom blaming a problem for the slowdown which germany says is a lie it is not just germany putin is cutting off natural gas flows into latvia. gazprom citing a problem for the stoppage latvia should be okay with the cutoff they now become the sixth nation that russia has entirely cut off from natural gas or has chosen to cut itself off. let's get a check of the top headlines with seema mody. seema, good to see you >> brian, let's continue the energy the biden administration is reportedly looking at issuing sanctioning over a global network helping export iranian oil. according to the wall street journal, the companies and individuals in focus have been using ship to ship transfers in waters between iraq and iran and forging documents to hide the

origin of the cargo. the potential sanctions would be part of the white house broader effort to escalate diplomatic pressure on tehran as the u.s. pushes to reach the deal on the iran nuclear program. house speaker nancy pelosi kicking off her visit to asia. pelosi and several others are in singapore today with the delegation set to visit malaysia and south korea and japan and no mention of taiwan. she may end up visiting the island during the trip. boeing clearing the hurdle with the regulators in the bid to deliver the 787 d.r.e.a.m. liners separately, boeing has temporarily averted a strike by workers at three plants in the st. louis area

a union representing workers will vote this week on the revised contract offer brian, back to you >> seema mody, thank you very much. now let's get back to the markets and your money nasdaq coming off the best month in more than a week and best month in two years the index pushed higher. amazon with an incredible run. apple and alphabet and others. mega cap names rising despite the misses or guidance meta was the outliar nasdaq is still down more than 20% this year. that is not the case where investors believe the tech sector will push higher. data from research shows a basket of tech stocks have hit the highest level since 2014

according to the same data, apple, amd which report this week and invesco qqq have been the popular individual bets since 2020 joining us now is richard kramer at rte research. richard, let me be the first to ask a question no doubt it will be asked five million times the next couple days was last month for tech, a bear market rally or the sign of a real and longer lasting turn upwards? >> brian, we talked last week about getting away from this beats versus misses metric and simplistic that was. i think it is clear to us this was a classic bear market rally. if you look back at the dot-com boom, bear market lasted 860

days the financial crisis lasting longer what we saw last week with the decline was the professionals said we will keep orders through the supply chain not so much for consumer products, but advertising where we can move back, we will reduce that this week, we're going to hear from the consumer discretionary with uber or paypal or alibaba with chinese demand and others e-bay. it will reflect what is happening with the consumer which may signal a different trend than the professionals because it tends to lag by a few quarters >> we had sony overnight in japan give disappointing profit numbers and guidance as well that's a consumer story. they were talking about weakness in gaming. you have google and alphabet

with the top story on cnbc richard, increasing prope productivity what are they saying between the corporate speak lines? >> i think you have to look at the companies especially how well managed big tech is relative to a lot of the smaller companies that don't have the adult supervision. they might not have the same depth of resources you know about the $300 billion of cash on the big tech balance sheets what the companies are telling you, they are happy to look through the cycle and down turn and prepare for the next one i think you look at sony and it is trading at 1.4 times sales. it has phenomenal spread of assets and the japanese me mentality to say we are happy to look at the two-year to five-year plan google is looking at 25 plus in

r&d. they are not pausing business to hide under a rock for the next 18 months. they are pressing ahead. i think you will see a difference in companies based on execution. i'll call out a name where execution is disappointing that is intel. that is a name we liked. you had pat gelsinger in there to lead a turn around. that hasn't executed yet you mentioned retail investors realize it takes professional investors several quarters to build position in stocks what you are starting to see is people revaluing the assets. they valued to the moon in that november last year and got too depressed about it now clear view of which companies will make it through we are going to talk about these companies in the second half of

2023 and 2024. >> richard, is there one name you love ten years from now? not tomorrow or ten weeks or ten months, but ten years? >> it will face headwinds in the advertising business what company in the u.s. has a larger data center or bigger asset pool in ai than google it is spending huge in r&d it is talking about pausing or slowing down hiring. it is not pulling back spend you don't see a lot of $100 billion net cash to make it through the scenario one other one everybody was bearish on apple we kept it as a buy. that is a well managed company it is exposed to slower consumer spend. that company still has tremendous range of resources it hasn't monetized yet

>> how can you go away when you are inside the cloud there is nowhere to go you are not moving to google you just named the two phone companies. >> how often do you check your phone, brian >> sorry i was looking at my phone. i didn't hear you. i was looking at my phone. >> right >> thank you, richard kramer a million times a day. ian bremmer on russia and the planned nancy pelosi trip to tie yan. t taiwan the interview you can't afford to miss is next. you ride between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance.

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beginning today, eu member states will begin voluntary demand cut for natural gas they will ask countries, some of whom, have sufficient energy sources, to slash nat gas by 15%. this is to heat enough homes over the winter. as some nations like spain suggested it has no interest in rationing gas. the problem is germany's to deal with this is all with the angry rhetoric with the nancy pelosi visit to taiwan. we have ian bremmer with more. ian, it is important to have you

on how does this play out in europe what is vladimir putin's ultimate end game? >> well, we have seen nord stream 1 capacity go from y40% o 20%. i would be surprised if there is any gas flowing from russia to germany by the time we get to winter all this with the sanctions and efforts to find diversified sources and reduce use has showed russia they are trying to move as quickly as humanly as possible to get away from russia once that happens, russia no longer has leverage. you have to ask putin fully being aware of that and is he prepared to sit and wait for europeans to wait? that answer is clearly from

russia so far in last few months is no. that will make it a hard winter for the europeans. >> that is unlikely to change. the worse he gets, the more europe will dig in and say forget about europe and we will go to natural gas and renewables all at the same time putin adding on to the pipeline network to china building on his umbilical cord, if you will, ian, this is add. is putin trying to cut the hand from his face here >> i think the decision from the europeans has been made on the back of the russian invasion of ukraine, not reducing russian gas later on there is no question he that the europeans are holding together strongly through several rounds

of sanctions far tougher than anyone expected and united than anyone expected before the russians invaded. that is the real story here. if you are russia and you understand that is going to be the outcome no matter what, what putin is trying to do is hope by making the europeans hurt this winter they will be more of a move and domestic pressure inside countries like italy and germany that will hurt a lot you talk about serious gp contraction with no russian gas for the winter how much pressure will that put on the governments that's the only play -- unless putin believes he is actually going to put an end to the ukrainian war and sanctions come off. there is nothing we have seen from russia in the last five months that would lead anyone to believe that

this is how much can i squeeze the europeans to break some of them >> i was just in germany a week and a half ago, ian. i don't know how much the people of europe are going to be willing to suffer and sacrifice their economies and livelihood for what is happening in ukraine. i'm not saying i agree the common sentiment was we need to keep moving on here we came out of covid for a couple of years. we can't deal with this. i also wonder technocrats in brussels will speak for the people people in france are saying why should we suffer for germany we have our own nuclear. they invaded us twice. i don't know how much the people will stick with the politicians. >> it's a fair point if this is the united states and would american citizens be willing to take higher prices at

the pump over russia and ukraine? let's be clear that 27 eu nations voted to give candidate member status to ukraine and moldova. individual european governments embrace the notion that ukraine is a part of europe and this war is a european war. millions are living in european homes. they are living in european communities. this does have greater impact than it does for the united states i have no doubt there will be demonstrations political demonstrations and pressure some will be pro-russia. leave us alone they will be germany first and france first and italy first demonstrations i have no doubt about that i don't think they will be

strong enough to shake the level of consolidated policy orien orientation. especially next year the russians will not be able to hurt the europeans as much or ever again this is a short-lived phenomenon. >> i certainly hope you are right as they come to u.s. lng nancy pelosi china saying they may force a jet down or shoot down u.s. military jets if pelosi does not go to taiwan, does u.s. look weak this is a crazy situation playing out overseas >> timing is unfortunate nobody wanted this to leak to the public the biden white house was trying to deliver this privately to pelosi when they found out about the trip a couple of weeks ago it leaked to the media it is a bigger situation

the americans have told the chinese to back down in recent months you remember jake sullivan traveled to rome arrnd decllive the act. the chinese backed down. it is clear. the americans tell the chinese what to do the chinese tell the american what is to do a fair amount. this is a case where it is uncomfortable saying don't send your speaker or there is a military response. that is not shooting down planes, but absolutely the kind of direct confrontation heightened alerts and military exercises and potentially after a pelosi trip, they he might announce a no-fly zone this is not a conflict these governments want this is why biden is convincing pelosi not to go he is not convinced she will listen to him.

as of last week, biden did not know if she could go or not. this is her decision she will upset her president directly something she has not been wanting to do if she decides to go ahead with this >> if she doesn't go, the u.s. looks weak if she does go, we will see what china does ian bremmer, thank you stfor getting up early. on deck, was the july a sign of a bottom or a boom? and dow futures are flashing before yr eyoues we are back right after this

welcome back welcome to august. yes, it is summer, but still a lot going on in the markets. do not sit do not stop. you will miss something. here is what is coming up.

you have two economic reports. one at 10:00 a.m the institute for supply manufacturing and manufacturing number and june construction spending good indication of future industrial demand. you will get earnings from activision blizzard and simon property they will have the finger on the pulse of consumer demand we are coming off the best month from the stock market since 2020 the worst half of the year for s&p since 1970 and the best july in two years what a turn in the month of july nearly every stock is higher will that rollover into the new week or month? i don't know right now, the futures are down six points i'll not make a call based on six points it's in the red, but irrelevant.

we are not up 200 in the futures. we are not necessarily right now seeing big aggressive buying action coming in to the new month. energy will be the focus going forward. it has been the focus for much of the first half of the year. that continues you have opec plus meeting on wednesday. the last number of meetings for two years since they made the covid demand cut which they have been rubber stamping agreement with tweaks around the edges that is ending wednesday's opec plus meeting may be the most important in two years. now they will start outside of the planned deal and start individually making plans month to month or longer term. that will be wednesday we will cover that on cnbc all day on wednesday. outside of that, other things are happening elon musk counter suing twitter. that is escalating the fight

with him and the company he wanted to buy and take private for $44 billion. how long ago that seems. two months ago lawsuit filed late friday confidentially under court rules, the redacted lawsuit could be made public this week. he filed after the delaware court ordered a five-day trial to begin in october. we think the media may have interest in that. good news for the world. ukraine's first grain exporting cargo ship left the port of odessa today that is according to the country's infrastructure minister that ship is bound for lebanon it is carrying 26,000 pounds of cargo. an important shipment for the greed grain. turkey brokered that agreement with moscow to guarantee the shipment with the black sea

ports. in the meantime, a russian rocket hit the port hours, but the ship did leave. and neel kashkari says the central bank is committed to goal of 2% inflation he says we have a long way to go on that. some ca some key headlines for now that does it for us on a busy monday flip a coin for stock futures. "squawk" and the ganarg e picking up coverage. have a great day take care. 80% of couples sleep too hot or too cold. because quality sleep is vital, the sleep number 360 smart bed is temperature balancing,

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good morning stocks are flat. we'll take it.

ahead of the busy week for the market a full slate of earnings it is august 1st hopefully the stragglers are not too many. house speaker nancy pelosi arrived in asia. she's expected to visit taiwan and a move that china is warning against for weeks. details straight ahead. covid rebound. president biden cancelling several public events after testing positive again over the weekend. it is monday, august 1st, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live in the nasdaq market site in